I went 18-14 through the first two weeks, eking out a couple of upsets with Florida State's win over Michigan and Oklahoma State's blowout of Colorado. Now on to the big ones. I wrote most of this preview last week, so while I am a little late posting the picks are still legit.
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
LSU (7-4) vs. Louisville (9-3)
December 31, 8:00 a.m.
I agree with the line. LSU should be favored. That might come as a shock to fans who have seen Louisville all over the Sportscenter Top 10, but it's worth remembering that the Cardinals are still only in their third year as a major-conference team (no, the old Big East doesn't count) and are just now seeing their personnel finally look like a Power Five roster. LSU, on the other hand, has been at this a while. The Tigers are unquestionably more talented, even without running back Leonard Fournette. I already don't like how that adds up for Louisville...
...And that's without even taking into consideration how the two teams ended the regular season. The Cards started 9-1 against a tremendously soft ACC slate, then got blown out by Houston and lost a sloppy contest to a bad SEC team in Kentucky. The Tigers? After a rough (2-2) start that saw the program finally cut ties with head coach Les Miles, the team went 5-2, improved significantly on offense, and lost a pair of close games Alabama and Florida, who played in the conference title game. I expect Lamar Jackson to run around and make some plays in this game, but I also expect him to make some mistakes, as is common with Heisman winners. LSU wins.
Watchability: 5. It's always a 5 when Jackson is involved.
Taxslayer Bowl
Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Kentucky (7-5)
December 31, 8:00 a.m.
I'm not sure what to make of this game, other than indignation that it's being played in the third week of bowl season. Georgia Tech and Kentucky both have middling-to-bad offenses and defenses, with Kentucky boasting a marginally better offense and Tech fielding a slightly stronger D. There are no real stars here, although the Wildcats did put two backs (Stanley Williams and Benny Snell, Jr.) over the 1,000-yard mark, which is impressive. The Yellow Jackets have the better resume, featuring wins over Virginia Tech and rival Georgia (Kentucky's only quality win was against rival Louisville). What does it all add up to? More importantly, should anyone care? Probably not, but I'll take Tech.
Watchability: 1. How anyone could watch this game with LSU - Louisville also on is beyond me.
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Washington (12-1) vs. Alabama (13-0)
December 31, 12:00 p.m.
First off, no. Washington does not have zero chance of winning this game. The Huskies are very good, deserve to be here, and can beat mighty Bama if a lot goes their way. The first thing has to be getting QB Jake Browning right; in UW's last four games, he was flat-out bad in at least nine of 16 quarters. Anything less than excellence from the normally very efficient sophomore passer will spell quick doom here. Next, the Huskies can't blink early. This program has come a long way very fast, and these players are simply not used to playing on this stage in the same way the Crimson Tide are. Washington has to stay the course in the first half, meaning not getting too emotional and flaming out, not panicking if Alabama scores first, and not taking itself out of the game with mental errors.
Finally, the Huskies need some luck. It is a fact that Alabama is a more talented team. Forcing an early turnover and getting out in front could be a lifesaver. If UW allows the Tide to sit back in its base defense and dictate terms, the Dawgs will gradually get worn down by the superior talent of their opponent. Chris Petersen is an outstanding strategist, and I don't think he'll be surprised by anything the Lane Kiffin-devised Alabama offense throws at him. Unfortunately, his efforts are more than likely to be futile in the face of the, well, Tide of history. Bama is just too powerful offensively to contain for long, and the Huskies' big weapon against defenses that try to stack the box - WR John Ross - plays right into Nick Saban's greatest strength: pass defense. Alabama should win by double digits.
Watchability: 5. Come on. Bama is going for 15-0.
Playstation Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State (11-1) vs. Clemson (12-1)
December 31, 4:00 p.m.
Regular readers will probably be able to predict who I like in this one. I haven't tried very hard to hide my feelings over the course of the season. To start, though, I offer this caveat: Clemson, at its best, is the better team. When the Tigers get going offensively, they're great fun, and the defense is a lot better than people think. Both teams have been inconsistent in 2016, so there's no reason at all to think good Clemson can't show up to win this game. But there's a difference between the squads, even as it applies to their consistency, and I think that's the best indicator as to who will win.
The Buckeyes opened hot, blowing out Oklahoma in Norman and moving to 6-0 before a flukey blocked field goal cost them the Penn State contest. After a sluggish, hangover win over Northwestern, though, OSU won back-to-back games 62-3 before getting into tight battles in rivalry games with the Michigan schools. In the end, despite some offensive struggles, the Buckeyes emerged as the Big Ten's best team. That's a kind of inconsistency Clemson would have killed for. The Tigers could have lost to Auburn, Troy and Louisville in the first month alone; they went on to need a shanked gimme field goal to beat North Carolina State and some awful officiating to top FSU. On top of that, Deshaun Watson regressed badly as a passer in 2016. This feels like an easy call. Ohio State should win.
Watchability: 5. It is a semifinal, after all.
Outback Bowl
Florida (8-4) vs. Iowa (8-4)
January 2, 10:00 a.m.
Boy, it sure seems silly to have all these extra bowls after New Year's, doesn't it? Especially now that the Playoff games are held a day or two before? Gahhh. Why do I bother? The greed of the bowl system will never be slaked. This is actually a potentially great game, with a couple of defenses that should annihilate the garbage offenses they're facing in what will probably be the lowest-scoring contest of the postseason. It's a tribute to the Gators' defense that they won eight games and the SEC East (bad though it may have been) without fielding a remotely competent offense. Likewise to the Hawkeyes, although it should be noted that both teams gave up a lot of points in the games they actually lost. Normally I'd advise viewers to stay away from toothless offensive slogs like this, but I have a feeling it will end up being pretty entertaining watching these teams butt heads for three-plus hours to no avail. Florida, in a very close, low-scoring affair, is the pick.
Watchability: 4, with the contest potentially setting college football back 40 years.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Western Michigan (13-0) vs. Wisconsin (10-3)
January 2, 10:00 a.m.
I'm sorry, Western Michigan. I want to pick the Broncos. They've been so fun. But reality is about to hit WMU in the face. Wisconsin won 10 games against a very demanding schedule, and each of the Badgers' losses came by one score. The saving grace against a powerful, physically superior team is that Western won't have to worry too much about the passing game. Wisconsin's QB's are both awful. But this squad is excellent on the ground and on defense, featuring a top-10 unit far beyond anything the Broncos have seen this season. WMU has a shot if it gets out to a lead early and makes Wisconsin play catch-up, but any other scenario leads to the Badgers bludgeoning the Broncos with the power run, bleeding clock so that QB Zach Terrell can't find the marvelous Corey Davis on the outside until the game is out of reach.
Watchability: 4, dropping a notch because of the possibility of a blowout.
Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
USC (9-3) vs. Penn State (11-2)
January 2, 2:00 p.m.
I hate picking USC. The Trojans always underachieve with the smallest of expectations, then look great when people stop paying attention. Maybe this is finally the time when the team shows up for a game that means something. Penn State, somewhat like USC, looked overmatched early in the season, but really turned into something by the ed of the year. In fact, these might be the two hottest teams in the country outside of Alabama. I do like SC in this contest, even though the Pac-12 took a downturn in 2016.
For all the talk about how the Big Ten became the nation's best conference this year, I remain skeptical. Let's see how the vaunted Nittany Lions passing attack fares against Adoree' Jackson and the Trojans' secondary. Trace McSorley is a lot more of a chucker than the media seems to want to admit; a 57 percent completion percentage might get it done against run-oriented Big Ten pass defenses, but the Pac-12 asks a little more. It makes complete sense for USC to shut up Penn State's Playoff whining, finish off a fantastic run to end the year, get a ton of preseason love in 2017, and promptly underwhelm us all again. It's the L.A. way.
Watchability: 5. Whoever wins will start next year with massive media hype.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Auburn (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)
January 2, 5:30 p.m.
Gaaah. Everyone knows what's going to happen in this game. Oklahoma, the superior team for two-thirds of the year, with the nation's third-best offense, will get spooked early, turn the ball over, and fail to come all the way back against the churning Auburn run game. Tigers' QB Sean White's health is a factor? Who cares! The Sooners just do this, year in and year out. Auburn shouldn't even be in this game with that 8-4 record, but I have no doubt the Tigers will justify their good ol' boy selection in the local bowl by knocking off an OU squad that, playing in the Big 12, appropriately plays exactly zero defense. How insane is it that the Sooners went 9-0 in league play with the nation's 89th-best defense? That's unreal! It also goes a long way toward explaining that 1-2 non-conference record against, you know, good teams. Yikes. For seemingly the millionth time this decade, Oklahoma SHOULD win this game. I'll take Auburn.
Watchability: 5, even if watching the nonexistent Auburn passing game makes me scream.
Saturday, December 31, 2016
Saturday, December 24, 2016
Bowl Preview, Week 2
After a rough 1-3 start to my predictions, I scraped out a 7-5 finish in the first week thanks to late-game heroics from Louisiana Tech, which struggled tremendously in defending third- and fourth-string Navy quarterbacks, Old Dominion in the Bahamas Bowl, and Troy. The only real shocker of the first week was Idaho turning into an offensive juggernaut against Colorado State, which appeared to be the clearly superior team heading into the game.
Week Two of bowl season is the main event, with a grand total of 20 games across just six days. The quality of the matchups also tends to increase - although mostly at the end of the week - so away we go! As always, all times are Pacific.
Hawai'i Bowl
Hawai'i (6-7) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)
December 24, 5:00 p.m.
Hawai'i got to sneak into its traditional Christmas Eve home bowl game thanks to the bloated postseason system now offering too many games for teams with winning records to fill. This should have been a very easy pick; the Rainbow Warriors are bad, having lost multiple games in blowout fashion to mediocre-or-worse opponents. However, it remains to be seen whether Blue Raiders quarterback Brent Stockstill will play in this game after breaking his collarbone earlier this season. If he's healthy, this is a no-brainer, as Stockstill is an excellent player (27 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in 2016 on 64 percent passing). If he can't go... I'd still take MTSU. The coaches will prepare backup John Urzua, and I'Tavius Mathers is one of the most underrated running backs in the country.
Watchability: 2. Hawai'i isn't very good.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Miami (OH) (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (5-7)
December 26, 8:00 a.m.
Ugh. This is probably the worst game of the bowl season. Where to begin? Miami started 0-6, with an 0-4 mark in non-league play, before winning six games against all the worst teams in the MAC. The RedHawks have one of the worst offenses in the country (although, to be fair, they also have a pretty strong D). MSU, on the other hand, has a good offense and an atrocious defense. The difference is that the Bulldogs' stats were accrued in the SEC, and MSU also lost several close games that could have seen the team's record swing to 7-5 or even 8-4 with a little more luck. Most importantly, the Bulldogs convinced head coach and program-savior Dan Mullen to stick around for the forseeable future, eliminating any chance of a coach-less emotional collapse in the bowl. MSU, big.
Watchability: 1. Please don't get up for this.
Quick Lane Bowl
Maryland (6-6) vs. Boston College (6-6)
December 26, 11:30 a.m.
A couple of conference-abandoning traitors, eh? I think we know how to deal with these turncoats (at least, after having a hearty laugh at their on-field struggles): ignore their garbage bowl game. These programs deserve both each other and the ignominy of playing in Detroit in December. The Terrapins opened 4-0 against a paper-soft early schedule, then promptly got blown out in five of seven Big Ten games, needing a win over lowly Rutgers to sneak into the postseason. BC somehow pieced together six wins from a mediocre ACC slate but, like Maryland, didn't beat anyone. This is a tough one to call. The Eagles have a quality defense but the second-worst offense in the nation; Maryland is mediocre on both sides. In the end, I'll go with a Big Ten squad over one from the awful ACC.
Watchability: 1. These teams don't deserve your time.
Camping World Independence Bowl
North Carolina State (6-6) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
December 26, 2:00 p.m.
Normally I'd be apprehensive about taking an ACC team over an SEC one, but there are few factors that point me toward NC State in this contest. First, the SEC wasn't quite its usual dominant self in 2016, which devalues what Vandy did. Second, the Commodores didn't really beat anyone, needing wins over a QB-less Ole Miss team and a Tennessee squad in full meltdown mode to get to 6-6. Finally, the Wolfpack were simply a better team this year. NCSU had Clemson and FSU dead to rights and bumbled away a win over ECU in Week Two - classic growing pains from a program on the rise. I like what Dave Doeren is doing in Raleigh, and his team should win this game.
Watchability: 2, because NC State might be kind of good next year.
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Army (7-5) vs. North Texas (5-7)
December 27, 9:00 a.m.
Did you know Army finished fourth in the country in total defense? I didn't. I did know it's been six years since the Black Knights made the postseason, which is pretty good motivation. Another good motivator is revenge, which Army has after losing 35-18 at home to North Texas earlier this season. There's a reason the bowl folks avoid pairing teams that have previously played; it's unfair to the team that won in the regular season, particularly when it's a squad like the Mean Green that lost four of five to end the year and really just needed the 2016 campaign to end. As such, Army is a pick to win this rematch, as UNT's 118th-ranked offense figures to struggle against the Black Knights' elite D.
Watchability: 1. I'm happy for Army having such a great season, but I don't need to watch them.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
Temple (10-3) vs. Wake Forest (6-6)
December 27, 12:30 p.m.
This is easiest pick to make thus far, as Wake Forest is vastly outmanned against a very good Temple team. Yes, the Owls are replacing head coach Matt Rhule (although his replacement, Florida defensive coordinator Geoff Collins, is an inspired hire for a program built on defense), but that pales in comparison to the baggage the Demon Deacons are dragging in their, well, wake. The "Wakeyleaks" scandal, in which radio broadcaster (and former Deacons player and coach!) Tommy Elrod appears to have leaked game plans and plays to opponents over a two-year period in retaliation for not being retained by the new coaching staff, is a new nadir for college football pettiness (and that's saying something). Wake Forest's 125th-ranked offense, say hello to Temple's third-ranked D. This could be ugly.
Watchability: 1. Temple deserved a better opponent.
National Funding Holiday Bowl
Minnesota (8-4) vs. Washington State (8-4)
December 27, 4:00 p.m.
This got bizarre really fast. Washington State was already a favorite for a reason: the Cougars' offense, led by QB Luke Falk, is flat-out scary. The Wazzu D leaves something to be desired, but against a mediocre passing offense like Minnesota's, that didn't figure to be a huge issue. The Golden Gophers have backed away from a team-wide ultimatum demanding 10 players suspended under suspicion of sexual assault be reinstated immediately or the the team would boycott the game; but yikes. This is a strange, ugly situation, and I don't see how it doesn't hang over the team in the contest. WSU should have won under normal circumstances, and now it's hard to imagine Minnesota putting up much of a fight.
Watchability: 3 for the morbid curiosity factor.
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Boise State (10-2) vs. Baylor (6-6)
December 27, 7:15 p.m.
Yikes. The Broncos are once again very good, missing out on a Mountain West title only by virtue of losing the wrong two games. Baylor went 6-0 against another cupcake schedule, then got exposed, beaten up and humiliated to finish .500 on the year. The Bears are ending another campaign with a backup at the QB position. Boise State is talented and good on both sides of the ball, while Baylor predictably has another tissue-paper defense. This won't be much of a contest.
Watchability: 2, unless you're (understandably) into seeing Baylor get beaten into submission.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Northwestern (6-6)
December 28, 11:00 a.m.
This feels like another easy call. Northwestern got a nice upset of Iowa, but that was months ago, and other than that the Wildcats' best claim to fame is a couple of competitive losses to Big Ten royalty. Pitt improved a ton over the course of the year, sneakily turning into one of the better teams in the country, and really turned it on in November. The Panthers won their last three, including handing Clemson its only loss, and averaged an absurd 58 points during that span. I don't see Pitt slowing down in the final game for program stalwarts Nathan Peterman (QB) and James Conner (RB).
Watchability: 3. That feels generous, but the Panthers' offense has been rolling lately.
Russell Athletic Bowl
West Virginia (10-2) vs. Miami (FL) (8-4)
December 28, 2:30 p.m.
I have a feeling this game will serve as a great litmus test for the Big 12. Was WVU all that good, or did the conference's weak defenses buoy an otherwise merely above-average squad? The Hurricanes have a quality defense, and the offense, led by sometimes-great QB Brad Kaaya, is also pretty good. Now, the Mountaineers are more balanced than they've been in recent years offensively, and the defense is also a cut above the sieves WVU usually fields. Still, I agree with the betting line in favoring Miami. The 'Canes suffered three of their four losses by a combined 11 points and throttled Pittsburgh 51-28, the last loss for the Panthers in 2016. I can't trust another big-offense Big 12 team here.
Watchability: 3. These are both nominally good teams, but there's not too much to get excited about.
Foster Farms Bowl
Indiana (6-6) vs. Utah (8-4)
December 28, 5:30 p.m.
Hmmm. Utah is the better team, but I'm hesitant to pick a team that lost three of its last four and is so shaky at the QB position. Troy Williams can be wildly erratic, and the normally stout Utes D fell outside the top 50 nationally this year. The Hoosiers are actually better on that side of the ball. Of course, Indiana has dealt with similar issues in the passing game, as Richard Lagow has given it away nearly as many times as he's scored this year (18 TD's to 16 picks). Utah can be a hard team to trust, but look at Indiana's wins. The Hoosiers haven't beaten a team with more than four wins in 2016. Utah finished poorly, but lost to Oregon and Washington on fluky plays that can be chalked up to bad luck. The Utes should win.
Watchability: 2, but only for Utah RB Joe Williams, whose return from retirement mid-season was one of the best storylines in college football this year.
Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
December 28, 6:00 p.m.
Both schools were beautifully true to their roots in 2016, with the Wildcats once again fielding a defensive, run-first, fundamentally sound team and the Aggies finishing as yet another free-wheeling, offensively explosive, defensively deficient squad. K-State was once again the tortoise, starting slow but going 5-1 down the stretch; A&M again played the hare, starting 6-0 but ending the year in the same place as the Wildcats. So which team triumphs in this showdown of marvelously different styles? I have to go with A&M, playing what is essentially a home game, against a defense ill-equipped to defend its myriad weapons. KSU has to win one way: getting out in front early and playing the keep-away game. If the Wildcats get behind, they're toast.
Watchability: 3. It's a decent matchup, but neither QB brings much to the table.
Birmingham Bowl
South Florida (10-2) vs. South Carolina (6-6)
December 29, 11:00 a.m.
Whoa. South Carolina made a bowl? Thank goodness for that November game against Western Carolina (eyeroll). True, the Gamecocks play in the SEC, but remember, they also play in the far inferior East division, and they only managed to go 3-3 against that competition. This isn't the usual case of a talented SEC team just getting by against powerful foes, then breaking out against an inferior opponent in the postseason. USF is really good offensively, ranking fifth in the nation in rushing, and while Carolina's defense isn't bad, rush D isn't its specialty. The Bulls will control this contest on the ground and win.
Watchability: 2. USF's Quinton Flowers is a talented dual-threat signal-caller.
Belk Bowl
Arkansas (7-5) vs. Virginia Tech (9-4)
December 29, 2:30 p.m.
This is an interesting one. Austin Allen (Arkansas) and Jerod Evans (Tech) have both put up numbers for teams that were a little up and down in 2016. The Razorbacks scored major victories against Ole Miss and Florida, but got rocked by Auburn and LSU. The Hokies hammered North Carolina and knocked off Pitt, but lost to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. So which versions of these teams show up in Charlotte? Va Tech is the favorite, and that seems right, given the big losses Arkansas suffered. And yet... I keep thinking to myself, "The ACC is so bad... and the SEC West is so good..." Why not? I'll call for the Razorbacks' offense to run wild again and give the SEC another irritating result to crow about.
Watchability: 4. These are quality offenses that deserve some love.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Colorado (10-3)
December 29, 6:00 p.m.
This hurts. I've written glowingly of Colorado this year, and the numbers seem to indicate the Buffaloes are the better team. CU has a quality offense (if not an elite one like OSU) and a killer D, including a lockdown pass defense that seemingly matches up perfectly with Okie State's Air Raid principles. The Cowboys' defense is also terrible, which seems to favor the Buffs. However, I have this nagging feeling that CU might have played above its talent level this season, and that the Pac-12 championship was perhaps more indicative of how good this team really is. Colorado absolutely could win this game, but Mason Rudolph is a very good QB, and if Sefo Liufao plays like he did against Washington this thing will be over early.
Watchability: 4, though it gets bumped up to a 5 if CU plays to its maximum potential.
Autozone Liberty Bowl
Georgia (7-5) vs. TCU (6-6)
December 30, 9:00 a.m.
Considering the quality of these programs, this is a pretty mediocre game. Big things were predicted from both squads before the season and nothing really worked out as planned. Georgia's season essentially ended with a 1-4 stretch in the middle of the year, while TCU got upset early by Arkansas and was never able to compete with the better teams on its schedule. The Bulldogs have the only quality win, a November upset of Auburn, but even that comes with the rather large caveat that the Tigers were banged up and played far below their ability. I guess I like UGA here, even though the Horned Frogs' Kenny Hill is the better QB in this contest. Look for Georgia to get a shot in the arm from the announcement that junior RB's Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will both return in 2017.
Watchability: 2, and only because Chubb and Michel are both great.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Stanford (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
December 30, 11:00 a.m.
So let's see: Stanford fell to 4-3 at midseason and was the second-worst offense in college football, but we're to believe the Cardinal suddenly found their way during the five-game winning streak to end the season against Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Cal and Rice? What's that? The average national rank of those defenses is 113th? And only OSU's was inside the top 100? And now RB Christian McCaffrey isn't playing? Sorry, not buying it, Stanford. North Carolina's D isn't great, but it's better than any of those five. For the record, in the one game during that stretch against a marginally competent defense (the Beavers), the Cardinal struggled. Moreover, this isn't a typical great Stanford defense, and even the Cardinal's strength (rush defense) doesn't match up well against the Tar Heels, who have a top-25 passing attack. Mitch Trubisky is a pretty good QB, and I like UNC.
Watchability: 2. I wouldn't wish viewing Stanford's offense on anyone.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nebraska (9-3) vs. Tennessee (8-4)
December 30, 12:30 p.m.
Not exactly one of the classic Big Ten - SEC bowl showdowns of yore. Nebraska was undefeated and highly ranked into late October, until the Cornhuskers were predictably undressed by the good teams on their schedule. With the division title still on the line in the final week, Nebraska lost 40-10 to Iowa. Yeesh. Tennessee, meanwhile, was one of the more disappointing teams in the country, finishing 8-4 after a 5-0 start. The Volunteers couldn't even win the sloppy SEC East. Both Tommy Armstrong, Jr. (Nebraska) and Josh Dobbs (UT) are wildly erratic passers, so there'll probably be some exciting moments, but who wins? It's basically a push, but the loss of leading Huskers receiver Jordan Westerkamp this week in practice puts the Vols over the top.
Watchability: 3, but it's a really tepid 3.
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
South Alabama (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
December 30, 2: 30 p.m.
What on earth is this? I'm 99 percent sure this bowl was created to give Arizona a potential home bowl (in which case, whoops: the Wildcats went 3-9), and the fact that it's being played at the end of the second week is a travesty. South Alabama went .500, with two wins over FCS teams and a 2-6 record in the freaking Sun Belt. In the old, sensible world of college football, the Jaguars would have never sniffed the postseason. Air Force lost three competitive Mountain West games, but beat Navy and Boise State and finished with five straight victories. There's no intrigue here. The Falcons should win easily.
Watchability: 1. This game shouldn't even exist.
Capital One Orange Bowl
Michigan (10-2) vs. Florida State (9-3)
December 30, 5:00 p.m.
Michigan should absolutely win this game. The Wolverines are uber-talented and field the nation's second-best defense, and it's clear FSU is in a bit of a down year. UM was literally one or two plays away from going 12-0 and making the Playoff. The Seminoles struggled a lot defensively and went through some growing pains on offense, as the 0-2 start to ACC play demonstrated. Yet I feel as if FSU has a decent shot in this game. Sure, Michigan's defense is great, but the Harbauffense has been nothing but a slopfest all year. How embarrassing is it that FSU's true freshman QB Deondre Francois is already a significantly better player than Wolverines upperclassman Wilton Speight? To make matters worse, there's Dalvin Cook to contend with - you know, one of the three best backs in the country.
If Florida State can foul up the plodding UM attack early and prevent the Wolverines from getting out to an early lead (thus stopping Harbaugh from playing keep-away with the defense and ground game all night), the 'Noles have to like their chances. Yes, Michigan has been a lockdown pass defense this season, but against the likes of the Big Ten, that's not particularly amazing. Francois is heady far beyond his years, and if a lead allows him to go to work off of play-action stuff to Cook, watch out. Finger-pointing could start in the Michigan secondary. Now, the more likely scenario is that UM makes FSU one-dimensional offensively, runs the ball around 50 times, and slows the pace to a crawl while squeezing the life out of the talented but young Seminoles. But we'll see. I'll take... FSU?
Watchability: 5. It's not the best matchup of the bowl season, but it's very good.
Week Two of bowl season is the main event, with a grand total of 20 games across just six days. The quality of the matchups also tends to increase - although mostly at the end of the week - so away we go! As always, all times are Pacific.
Hawai'i Bowl
Hawai'i (6-7) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)
December 24, 5:00 p.m.
Hawai'i got to sneak into its traditional Christmas Eve home bowl game thanks to the bloated postseason system now offering too many games for teams with winning records to fill. This should have been a very easy pick; the Rainbow Warriors are bad, having lost multiple games in blowout fashion to mediocre-or-worse opponents. However, it remains to be seen whether Blue Raiders quarterback Brent Stockstill will play in this game after breaking his collarbone earlier this season. If he's healthy, this is a no-brainer, as Stockstill is an excellent player (27 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in 2016 on 64 percent passing). If he can't go... I'd still take MTSU. The coaches will prepare backup John Urzua, and I'Tavius Mathers is one of the most underrated running backs in the country.
Watchability: 2. Hawai'i isn't very good.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Miami (OH) (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (5-7)
December 26, 8:00 a.m.
Ugh. This is probably the worst game of the bowl season. Where to begin? Miami started 0-6, with an 0-4 mark in non-league play, before winning six games against all the worst teams in the MAC. The RedHawks have one of the worst offenses in the country (although, to be fair, they also have a pretty strong D). MSU, on the other hand, has a good offense and an atrocious defense. The difference is that the Bulldogs' stats were accrued in the SEC, and MSU also lost several close games that could have seen the team's record swing to 7-5 or even 8-4 with a little more luck. Most importantly, the Bulldogs convinced head coach and program-savior Dan Mullen to stick around for the forseeable future, eliminating any chance of a coach-less emotional collapse in the bowl. MSU, big.
Watchability: 1. Please don't get up for this.
Quick Lane Bowl
Maryland (6-6) vs. Boston College (6-6)
December 26, 11:30 a.m.
A couple of conference-abandoning traitors, eh? I think we know how to deal with these turncoats (at least, after having a hearty laugh at their on-field struggles): ignore their garbage bowl game. These programs deserve both each other and the ignominy of playing in Detroit in December. The Terrapins opened 4-0 against a paper-soft early schedule, then promptly got blown out in five of seven Big Ten games, needing a win over lowly Rutgers to sneak into the postseason. BC somehow pieced together six wins from a mediocre ACC slate but, like Maryland, didn't beat anyone. This is a tough one to call. The Eagles have a quality defense but the second-worst offense in the nation; Maryland is mediocre on both sides. In the end, I'll go with a Big Ten squad over one from the awful ACC.
Watchability: 1. These teams don't deserve your time.
Camping World Independence Bowl
North Carolina State (6-6) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6)
December 26, 2:00 p.m.
Normally I'd be apprehensive about taking an ACC team over an SEC one, but there are few factors that point me toward NC State in this contest. First, the SEC wasn't quite its usual dominant self in 2016, which devalues what Vandy did. Second, the Commodores didn't really beat anyone, needing wins over a QB-less Ole Miss team and a Tennessee squad in full meltdown mode to get to 6-6. Finally, the Wolfpack were simply a better team this year. NCSU had Clemson and FSU dead to rights and bumbled away a win over ECU in Week Two - classic growing pains from a program on the rise. I like what Dave Doeren is doing in Raleigh, and his team should win this game.
Watchability: 2, because NC State might be kind of good next year.
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Army (7-5) vs. North Texas (5-7)
December 27, 9:00 a.m.
Did you know Army finished fourth in the country in total defense? I didn't. I did know it's been six years since the Black Knights made the postseason, which is pretty good motivation. Another good motivator is revenge, which Army has after losing 35-18 at home to North Texas earlier this season. There's a reason the bowl folks avoid pairing teams that have previously played; it's unfair to the team that won in the regular season, particularly when it's a squad like the Mean Green that lost four of five to end the year and really just needed the 2016 campaign to end. As such, Army is a pick to win this rematch, as UNT's 118th-ranked offense figures to struggle against the Black Knights' elite D.
Watchability: 1. I'm happy for Army having such a great season, but I don't need to watch them.
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
Temple (10-3) vs. Wake Forest (6-6)
December 27, 12:30 p.m.
This is easiest pick to make thus far, as Wake Forest is vastly outmanned against a very good Temple team. Yes, the Owls are replacing head coach Matt Rhule (although his replacement, Florida defensive coordinator Geoff Collins, is an inspired hire for a program built on defense), but that pales in comparison to the baggage the Demon Deacons are dragging in their, well, wake. The "Wakeyleaks" scandal, in which radio broadcaster (and former Deacons player and coach!) Tommy Elrod appears to have leaked game plans and plays to opponents over a two-year period in retaliation for not being retained by the new coaching staff, is a new nadir for college football pettiness (and that's saying something). Wake Forest's 125th-ranked offense, say hello to Temple's third-ranked D. This could be ugly.
Watchability: 1. Temple deserved a better opponent.
National Funding Holiday Bowl
Minnesota (8-4) vs. Washington State (8-4)
December 27, 4:00 p.m.
This got bizarre really fast. Washington State was already a favorite for a reason: the Cougars' offense, led by QB Luke Falk, is flat-out scary. The Wazzu D leaves something to be desired, but against a mediocre passing offense like Minnesota's, that didn't figure to be a huge issue. The Golden Gophers have backed away from a team-wide ultimatum demanding 10 players suspended under suspicion of sexual assault be reinstated immediately or the the team would boycott the game; but yikes. This is a strange, ugly situation, and I don't see how it doesn't hang over the team in the contest. WSU should have won under normal circumstances, and now it's hard to imagine Minnesota putting up much of a fight.
Watchability: 3 for the morbid curiosity factor.
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl
Boise State (10-2) vs. Baylor (6-6)
December 27, 7:15 p.m.
Yikes. The Broncos are once again very good, missing out on a Mountain West title only by virtue of losing the wrong two games. Baylor went 6-0 against another cupcake schedule, then got exposed, beaten up and humiliated to finish .500 on the year. The Bears are ending another campaign with a backup at the QB position. Boise State is talented and good on both sides of the ball, while Baylor predictably has another tissue-paper defense. This won't be much of a contest.
Watchability: 2, unless you're (understandably) into seeing Baylor get beaten into submission.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Northwestern (6-6)
December 28, 11:00 a.m.
This feels like another easy call. Northwestern got a nice upset of Iowa, but that was months ago, and other than that the Wildcats' best claim to fame is a couple of competitive losses to Big Ten royalty. Pitt improved a ton over the course of the year, sneakily turning into one of the better teams in the country, and really turned it on in November. The Panthers won their last three, including handing Clemson its only loss, and averaged an absurd 58 points during that span. I don't see Pitt slowing down in the final game for program stalwarts Nathan Peterman (QB) and James Conner (RB).
Watchability: 3. That feels generous, but the Panthers' offense has been rolling lately.
Russell Athletic Bowl
West Virginia (10-2) vs. Miami (FL) (8-4)
December 28, 2:30 p.m.
I have a feeling this game will serve as a great litmus test for the Big 12. Was WVU all that good, or did the conference's weak defenses buoy an otherwise merely above-average squad? The Hurricanes have a quality defense, and the offense, led by sometimes-great QB Brad Kaaya, is also pretty good. Now, the Mountaineers are more balanced than they've been in recent years offensively, and the defense is also a cut above the sieves WVU usually fields. Still, I agree with the betting line in favoring Miami. The 'Canes suffered three of their four losses by a combined 11 points and throttled Pittsburgh 51-28, the last loss for the Panthers in 2016. I can't trust another big-offense Big 12 team here.
Watchability: 3. These are both nominally good teams, but there's not too much to get excited about.
Foster Farms Bowl
Indiana (6-6) vs. Utah (8-4)
December 28, 5:30 p.m.
Hmmm. Utah is the better team, but I'm hesitant to pick a team that lost three of its last four and is so shaky at the QB position. Troy Williams can be wildly erratic, and the normally stout Utes D fell outside the top 50 nationally this year. The Hoosiers are actually better on that side of the ball. Of course, Indiana has dealt with similar issues in the passing game, as Richard Lagow has given it away nearly as many times as he's scored this year (18 TD's to 16 picks). Utah can be a hard team to trust, but look at Indiana's wins. The Hoosiers haven't beaten a team with more than four wins in 2016. Utah finished poorly, but lost to Oregon and Washington on fluky plays that can be chalked up to bad luck. The Utes should win.
Watchability: 2, but only for Utah RB Joe Williams, whose return from retirement mid-season was one of the best storylines in college football this year.
Advocare V100 Texas Bowl
Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Kansas State (8-4)
December 28, 6:00 p.m.
Both schools were beautifully true to their roots in 2016, with the Wildcats once again fielding a defensive, run-first, fundamentally sound team and the Aggies finishing as yet another free-wheeling, offensively explosive, defensively deficient squad. K-State was once again the tortoise, starting slow but going 5-1 down the stretch; A&M again played the hare, starting 6-0 but ending the year in the same place as the Wildcats. So which team triumphs in this showdown of marvelously different styles? I have to go with A&M, playing what is essentially a home game, against a defense ill-equipped to defend its myriad weapons. KSU has to win one way: getting out in front early and playing the keep-away game. If the Wildcats get behind, they're toast.
Watchability: 3. It's a decent matchup, but neither QB brings much to the table.
Birmingham Bowl
South Florida (10-2) vs. South Carolina (6-6)
December 29, 11:00 a.m.
Whoa. South Carolina made a bowl? Thank goodness for that November game against Western Carolina (eyeroll). True, the Gamecocks play in the SEC, but remember, they also play in the far inferior East division, and they only managed to go 3-3 against that competition. This isn't the usual case of a talented SEC team just getting by against powerful foes, then breaking out against an inferior opponent in the postseason. USF is really good offensively, ranking fifth in the nation in rushing, and while Carolina's defense isn't bad, rush D isn't its specialty. The Bulls will control this contest on the ground and win.
Watchability: 2. USF's Quinton Flowers is a talented dual-threat signal-caller.
Belk Bowl
Arkansas (7-5) vs. Virginia Tech (9-4)
December 29, 2:30 p.m.
This is an interesting one. Austin Allen (Arkansas) and Jerod Evans (Tech) have both put up numbers for teams that were a little up and down in 2016. The Razorbacks scored major victories against Ole Miss and Florida, but got rocked by Auburn and LSU. The Hokies hammered North Carolina and knocked off Pitt, but lost to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. So which versions of these teams show up in Charlotte? Va Tech is the favorite, and that seems right, given the big losses Arkansas suffered. And yet... I keep thinking to myself, "The ACC is so bad... and the SEC West is so good..." Why not? I'll call for the Razorbacks' offense to run wild again and give the SEC another irritating result to crow about.
Watchability: 4. These are quality offenses that deserve some love.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Colorado (10-3)
December 29, 6:00 p.m.
This hurts. I've written glowingly of Colorado this year, and the numbers seem to indicate the Buffaloes are the better team. CU has a quality offense (if not an elite one like OSU) and a killer D, including a lockdown pass defense that seemingly matches up perfectly with Okie State's Air Raid principles. The Cowboys' defense is also terrible, which seems to favor the Buffs. However, I have this nagging feeling that CU might have played above its talent level this season, and that the Pac-12 championship was perhaps more indicative of how good this team really is. Colorado absolutely could win this game, but Mason Rudolph is a very good QB, and if Sefo Liufao plays like he did against Washington this thing will be over early.
Watchability: 4, though it gets bumped up to a 5 if CU plays to its maximum potential.
Autozone Liberty Bowl
Georgia (7-5) vs. TCU (6-6)
December 30, 9:00 a.m.
Considering the quality of these programs, this is a pretty mediocre game. Big things were predicted from both squads before the season and nothing really worked out as planned. Georgia's season essentially ended with a 1-4 stretch in the middle of the year, while TCU got upset early by Arkansas and was never able to compete with the better teams on its schedule. The Bulldogs have the only quality win, a November upset of Auburn, but even that comes with the rather large caveat that the Tigers were banged up and played far below their ability. I guess I like UGA here, even though the Horned Frogs' Kenny Hill is the better QB in this contest. Look for Georgia to get a shot in the arm from the announcement that junior RB's Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will both return in 2017.
Watchability: 2, and only because Chubb and Michel are both great.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Stanford (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
December 30, 11:00 a.m.
So let's see: Stanford fell to 4-3 at midseason and was the second-worst offense in college football, but we're to believe the Cardinal suddenly found their way during the five-game winning streak to end the season against Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, Cal and Rice? What's that? The average national rank of those defenses is 113th? And only OSU's was inside the top 100? And now RB Christian McCaffrey isn't playing? Sorry, not buying it, Stanford. North Carolina's D isn't great, but it's better than any of those five. For the record, in the one game during that stretch against a marginally competent defense (the Beavers), the Cardinal struggled. Moreover, this isn't a typical great Stanford defense, and even the Cardinal's strength (rush defense) doesn't match up well against the Tar Heels, who have a top-25 passing attack. Mitch Trubisky is a pretty good QB, and I like UNC.
Watchability: 2. I wouldn't wish viewing Stanford's offense on anyone.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Nebraska (9-3) vs. Tennessee (8-4)
December 30, 12:30 p.m.
Not exactly one of the classic Big Ten - SEC bowl showdowns of yore. Nebraska was undefeated and highly ranked into late October, until the Cornhuskers were predictably undressed by the good teams on their schedule. With the division title still on the line in the final week, Nebraska lost 40-10 to Iowa. Yeesh. Tennessee, meanwhile, was one of the more disappointing teams in the country, finishing 8-4 after a 5-0 start. The Volunteers couldn't even win the sloppy SEC East. Both Tommy Armstrong, Jr. (Nebraska) and Josh Dobbs (UT) are wildly erratic passers, so there'll probably be some exciting moments, but who wins? It's basically a push, but the loss of leading Huskers receiver Jordan Westerkamp this week in practice puts the Vols over the top.
Watchability: 3, but it's a really tepid 3.
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
South Alabama (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
December 30, 2: 30 p.m.
What on earth is this? I'm 99 percent sure this bowl was created to give Arizona a potential home bowl (in which case, whoops: the Wildcats went 3-9), and the fact that it's being played at the end of the second week is a travesty. South Alabama went .500, with two wins over FCS teams and a 2-6 record in the freaking Sun Belt. In the old, sensible world of college football, the Jaguars would have never sniffed the postseason. Air Force lost three competitive Mountain West games, but beat Navy and Boise State and finished with five straight victories. There's no intrigue here. The Falcons should win easily.
Watchability: 1. This game shouldn't even exist.
Capital One Orange Bowl
Michigan (10-2) vs. Florida State (9-3)
December 30, 5:00 p.m.
Michigan should absolutely win this game. The Wolverines are uber-talented and field the nation's second-best defense, and it's clear FSU is in a bit of a down year. UM was literally one or two plays away from going 12-0 and making the Playoff. The Seminoles struggled a lot defensively and went through some growing pains on offense, as the 0-2 start to ACC play demonstrated. Yet I feel as if FSU has a decent shot in this game. Sure, Michigan's defense is great, but the Harbauffense has been nothing but a slopfest all year. How embarrassing is it that FSU's true freshman QB Deondre Francois is already a significantly better player than Wolverines upperclassman Wilton Speight? To make matters worse, there's Dalvin Cook to contend with - you know, one of the three best backs in the country.
If Florida State can foul up the plodding UM attack early and prevent the Wolverines from getting out to an early lead (thus stopping Harbaugh from playing keep-away with the defense and ground game all night), the 'Noles have to like their chances. Yes, Michigan has been a lockdown pass defense this season, but against the likes of the Big Ten, that's not particularly amazing. Francois is heady far beyond his years, and if a lead allows him to go to work off of play-action stuff to Cook, watch out. Finger-pointing could start in the Michigan secondary. Now, the more likely scenario is that UM makes FSU one-dimensional offensively, runs the ball around 50 times, and slows the pace to a crawl while squeezing the life out of the talented but young Seminoles. But we'll see. I'll take... FSU?
Watchability: 5. It's not the best matchup of the bowl season, but it's very good.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Bowl Preview, Week 1
The bowls are back and I've returned with my usual guide to help viewers through the confusing, maddening mess that is the college football postseason. My disdain for the explosion of bowls in the past decade is no secret, even if I end up watching most of them anyway. Motivation is the x-factor in bowl season; while the regular season remains at least somewhat predictable thanks to players' natural competitiveness, at least a quarter of bowl teams will simply go through the motions. This makes the games exceedingly difficult to predict.
Instead, I offer my annual "Watchability" scale in the breakdown for each matchup, indicating which contests look promising and which should be avoided. All times are Pacific, with this week's post covering all the games through next Friday, December 23.
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico (8-4) vs. Texas-San Antonio (6-6)
December 17, 11:00 a.m.
This game kicks off the bowl season once again, and once again it'll be a home game for the Lobos. As far as early bowls go, you could do worse, even if the outcome is fairly easy to predict. UNM was simply a superior team and improved as the year went on, going 6-1 after a 2-3 start, so the only question is whether playing in the program's first-ever bowl game will buoy UTSA far beyond its talent level. I don't see the Roadrunners' average defense handling the nation's best rushing attack with much success. However, the game is still solid viewing, if only for the Lobos' unique triple-stack Pistol offense. Trust me, it's worth seeing.
Watchability: 3. I'm not kidding about the New Mexico offense. It's weird.
Las Vegas Bowl presented by GEICO
Houston (9-3) vs. San Diego State (10-3)
December 17, 12:30 p.m.
Wow. What did we do to earn this gem of a first-Saturday bowl? Houston was the most talented mid-major in the country this year, slapping around Power Five schools in Oklahoma and Louisville to bookend a somewhat disappointing campaign. San Diego State has been on a dominant two-year run in the Mountain West, but doesn't normally play teams with this kind of talent level. The question for the Cougars is motivation. Houston's Super Bowl was the blowout of Louisville, and losing head coach Tom Herman to Texas isn't a good sign, either. SDSU plays a style that could frustrate UH, with a run-heavy, ball-control offense featuring shifty running back Donnel Pumphrey that limits foes' opportunities.
Under normal circumstances, I'd give the edge to the team with a conference title and a head coach. The Aztecs have earned the right to be respected in this game. But the key difference between Houston and similar seemingly-motivation-less teams in the past is senior quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. I don't think he'll let the Cougars get rolled in his final game, which is one of the reasons why this figures to be such a good matchup. It's really tough to make a pick here, but I'll go with a rested Houston squad whose ceiling is higher.
Watchability: 5. These are possibly the two best Group of Five schools in 2016.
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Appalachian State (9-3) vs. Toledo (9-3)
December 17, 2: 30 p.m.
Another great matchup on the first day of bowl season? What's going on here? The early bowls are supposed to be hot garbage. These teams are more-or-less inverse versions of each other, with App State boasting the nation's 15th-ranked defense and a relatively average offense while Toledo comes in with a similarly average D but the fourth-best offense in the country. This sets up like a classic battle of strength versus strength. It's so close, the betting line is actually even. I think the contest is a little easier to call. The Rockets' numbers were earned in the MAC, which is significantly stronger than the Sun Belt. Toledo crushed the Mountaineers' co-SBC champ Arkansas State 31-10. Akron was the only common opponent for these two squads, and Toledo won by 31 while App State came away with a seven-point victory. Toledo should win this game.
Watchability: 4. Tune in for Rockets' senior QB Logan Woodside's last game.
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Central Florida (6-6) vs. Arkansas State (7-5)
December 17, 2:30 p.m.
Here's the first real dud. UCF should rightly be lauded for turning a winless 2015 campaign into a .500, postseason-bound season just one year later, but that doesn't mean anyone is obligated to watch the team in a bowl game. This feels like another fairly easy one to pick; as noted above, Arkansas State tied for the conference title in the Sun Belt, but that's not much of an accomplishment. Also note: the 7-5 record. How did the Red Wolves win the SBC, you ask? Well, the 7-1 conference mark was nice, but State went 0-4 in non-league play, including three blowouts AND a home loss to FCS school Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves aren't actually very good. UCF, on the other hand, played some very competitive games in the American, including close losses to Houston and league champ Temple. The Knights are the easy choice.
Watchability: 1. Not much to see here.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss (6-6) vs. Louisiana Lafayette (6-6)
December 17, 6:00 p.m.
That's more like it. This is what I expect from the early, dark days of bowl season: mediocre, disappointing mid-majors in defense-optional slap-fests. Southern Miss was one of the more underwhelming teams in 2016, falling apart after a 4-1 start. Lafayette was a mess for most of the year but notched its two finest achievements in the last two games: an upset of Sun Belt winner Arkansas State and a blowout of rival Louisiana Monroe. USM has an advantage in QB Nick Mullins, which I expect will be the edge that decides the game.
Watchability: 1. Stay away.
Miami Beach Bowl
Central Michigan (6-6) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
December 19, 11:30 a.m.
This is an easy bowl to pick, but it's still worth watching for the swan song of passers Cooper Rush and Dane Evans, two of the best mid-major QB's in the nation over the past four years. Both have amassed more than 11,000 yards through the air and 75 passing touchdowns in their illustrious careers. It'll be fun to see them go head-to-head in their final game, even though Tulsa is the heavy favorite for a reason. The Golden Hurricane have the sixth-best offense in the country and very nearly went 11-1, losing to Houston and Navy by a combined nine points. The Chippewas likely don't have enough firepower to keep up, but with a QB like Rush they'll have a shot.
Watchability: 3. Very good quarterbacking is hard to find in college football. Appreciate this.
Boca Raton Bowl
Memphis (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky (10-3)
December 20, 4:00 p.m.
The Boca Raton Bowl features one of those classic bowl puzzles. WKU was unquestionably the better team this year, finishing with a better offense and defense and winning a conference title. But Memphis is a good team in its own right, and can counter excellent Hilltoppers QB Mike White with a high-quality passer of its own in Riley Ferguson. More to the point, WKU just lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue, while the Tigers don't have to deal with that kind of transition. Given that both offenses are likely to explode, this looks to be a back-and-forth contest. Despite the stats favoring the Hilltoppers, I think Memphis is the smarter pick.
Watchability: 4. There's going to be scoring.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-5)
December 21, 6:00 p.m.
Wyoming was a great underdog to root for this year, but the Cowboys are in over their heads here. After a 7-2 start that included a magical upset of Boise State, Wyoming got shredded by UNLV and New Mexico and (predictably) lost a rematch with San Diego State in the Mountain West title game. BYU played a rough independent schedule and lost four games by a combined eights points, with three of those losses coming against Power Five teams (and the fourth to Boise State). The Cougars are flat-out more talented than the plucky Cowboys and should prove it in this game. The lack of QB Taysom Hill definitely gives me reason to pause, but I'm still taking BYU.
Watchability: 2. Both teams are decent, but there's no real hook here.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Idaho (8-4) vs. Colorado State (7-5)
December 22, 4:00 p.m.
In what could be Idaho's final bowl game before dropping down to the FCS level after the 2017 season, the Vandals get to stay in-state to face a regional foe in CSU. I want to root for Idaho in this game, but the Rams are a smarter pick. Both teams have decent defenses, but CSU's offense is a lot stronger, which figures to put a strain on the talent-strapped Vandals. Idaho's record was also made in the Sun Belt, and it's always a good idea to pick against the nation's weakest conference whenever possible. Colorado State plays in Boise every other year; this won't be much of a home field advantage for the Vandals.
Watchability: 1. Unless you're into the sweet nostalgia of Idaho in the FBS.
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs. Old Dominion (9-3)
December 23, 10:00 a.m.
Who are the lucky teams that drew the Bahamas Bowl this year, you ask? Why, merely a school making its first postseason appearance in 29 years (EMU) and another making its first ever (ODU). What a delightful pairing, and a couple of teams worthy of getting a little island vacation. Eastern was the perennial doormat of the MAC West, but a 5-2 start in 2016 all but guaranteed the Eagles would get to a bowl for the first time since 1987. Old Dominion, meanwhile, joined the FBS in just 2014, so this is a pretty sweet landing spot for a first bowl. The Monarchs are favored for good reason; they went 7-1 in the Conference USA and won their last five, while EMU weathered a lot of injuries to finish with seven wins. ODU is the pick.
Watchability: 2, because of the history involved, but otherwise this game offers little.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs. Navy (9-4)
December 23, 1: 30 p.m.
Both schools enter the bowl on a bit of a down note after otherwise successful seasons. Tech won seven straight after a 1-3 start, but ended the regular season with a big loss to Southern Miss and followed it up with a shootout loss to Western Kentucky (a team the Bulldogs had already beaten) in the Conference USA Championship. Navy fought off tough challenges from Memphis, Tulsa and Houston to win the American's West division, only to get thrashed by Temple in the title game and fall again last week to rival Army. I would have taken the Midshipmen a few weeks ago, but QB injuries make Navy a significantly tougher sell now. LTU is the better pick, given the state of the opposition's quarterbacking.
Watchability: 3. These are still a pair of very impressive offenses.
Dollar General Bowl
Ohio (8-5) vs. Troy (9-3)
December 23, 5:00 p.m.
As far as first-week mid-major bowl clashes go, this one's pretty promising. Ohio and Troy boast the nation's 31st- and 32nd-ranked defenses, so unlike most Group of Five teams, they're actually competent defensively. The advantage comes on the other side of the ball, where the Trojans have a sizeable edge on offense. I like Ohio's run-heavy attack, which very nearly upset Western Michigan in the MAC title game, but Troy has a lot more to offer offensively and is more balanced. The Trojans have also simply been better this season; this team nearly won at Clemson, for goodness' sake. The Sun Belt is a tough league to trust, but Troy deserves to be favored here.
Watchability: 3. We're dealing with mid-majors, but a couple that are actually decent.
That's it for the opening week of bowl season, but Week Two is where things really heat up. There are 20 games next week after this week's opening dozen, and the competition also tends to get a lot better in the more prestigious bowls. See you then.
Instead, I offer my annual "Watchability" scale in the breakdown for each matchup, indicating which contests look promising and which should be avoided. All times are Pacific, with this week's post covering all the games through next Friday, December 23.
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico (8-4) vs. Texas-San Antonio (6-6)
December 17, 11:00 a.m.
This game kicks off the bowl season once again, and once again it'll be a home game for the Lobos. As far as early bowls go, you could do worse, even if the outcome is fairly easy to predict. UNM was simply a superior team and improved as the year went on, going 6-1 after a 2-3 start, so the only question is whether playing in the program's first-ever bowl game will buoy UTSA far beyond its talent level. I don't see the Roadrunners' average defense handling the nation's best rushing attack with much success. However, the game is still solid viewing, if only for the Lobos' unique triple-stack Pistol offense. Trust me, it's worth seeing.
Watchability: 3. I'm not kidding about the New Mexico offense. It's weird.
Las Vegas Bowl presented by GEICO
Houston (9-3) vs. San Diego State (10-3)
December 17, 12:30 p.m.
Wow. What did we do to earn this gem of a first-Saturday bowl? Houston was the most talented mid-major in the country this year, slapping around Power Five schools in Oklahoma and Louisville to bookend a somewhat disappointing campaign. San Diego State has been on a dominant two-year run in the Mountain West, but doesn't normally play teams with this kind of talent level. The question for the Cougars is motivation. Houston's Super Bowl was the blowout of Louisville, and losing head coach Tom Herman to Texas isn't a good sign, either. SDSU plays a style that could frustrate UH, with a run-heavy, ball-control offense featuring shifty running back Donnel Pumphrey that limits foes' opportunities.
Under normal circumstances, I'd give the edge to the team with a conference title and a head coach. The Aztecs have earned the right to be respected in this game. But the key difference between Houston and similar seemingly-motivation-less teams in the past is senior quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. I don't think he'll let the Cougars get rolled in his final game, which is one of the reasons why this figures to be such a good matchup. It's really tough to make a pick here, but I'll go with a rested Houston squad whose ceiling is higher.
Watchability: 5. These are possibly the two best Group of Five schools in 2016.
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Appalachian State (9-3) vs. Toledo (9-3)
December 17, 2: 30 p.m.
Another great matchup on the first day of bowl season? What's going on here? The early bowls are supposed to be hot garbage. These teams are more-or-less inverse versions of each other, with App State boasting the nation's 15th-ranked defense and a relatively average offense while Toledo comes in with a similarly average D but the fourth-best offense in the country. This sets up like a classic battle of strength versus strength. It's so close, the betting line is actually even. I think the contest is a little easier to call. The Rockets' numbers were earned in the MAC, which is significantly stronger than the Sun Belt. Toledo crushed the Mountaineers' co-SBC champ Arkansas State 31-10. Akron was the only common opponent for these two squads, and Toledo won by 31 while App State came away with a seven-point victory. Toledo should win this game.
Watchability: 4. Tune in for Rockets' senior QB Logan Woodside's last game.
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Central Florida (6-6) vs. Arkansas State (7-5)
December 17, 2:30 p.m.
Here's the first real dud. UCF should rightly be lauded for turning a winless 2015 campaign into a .500, postseason-bound season just one year later, but that doesn't mean anyone is obligated to watch the team in a bowl game. This feels like another fairly easy one to pick; as noted above, Arkansas State tied for the conference title in the Sun Belt, but that's not much of an accomplishment. Also note: the 7-5 record. How did the Red Wolves win the SBC, you ask? Well, the 7-1 conference mark was nice, but State went 0-4 in non-league play, including three blowouts AND a home loss to FCS school Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves aren't actually very good. UCF, on the other hand, played some very competitive games in the American, including close losses to Houston and league champ Temple. The Knights are the easy choice.
Watchability: 1. Not much to see here.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss (6-6) vs. Louisiana Lafayette (6-6)
December 17, 6:00 p.m.
That's more like it. This is what I expect from the early, dark days of bowl season: mediocre, disappointing mid-majors in defense-optional slap-fests. Southern Miss was one of the more underwhelming teams in 2016, falling apart after a 4-1 start. Lafayette was a mess for most of the year but notched its two finest achievements in the last two games: an upset of Sun Belt winner Arkansas State and a blowout of rival Louisiana Monroe. USM has an advantage in QB Nick Mullins, which I expect will be the edge that decides the game.
Watchability: 1. Stay away.
Miami Beach Bowl
Central Michigan (6-6) vs. Tulsa (9-3)
December 19, 11:30 a.m.
This is an easy bowl to pick, but it's still worth watching for the swan song of passers Cooper Rush and Dane Evans, two of the best mid-major QB's in the nation over the past four years. Both have amassed more than 11,000 yards through the air and 75 passing touchdowns in their illustrious careers. It'll be fun to see them go head-to-head in their final game, even though Tulsa is the heavy favorite for a reason. The Golden Hurricane have the sixth-best offense in the country and very nearly went 11-1, losing to Houston and Navy by a combined nine points. The Chippewas likely don't have enough firepower to keep up, but with a QB like Rush they'll have a shot.
Watchability: 3. Very good quarterbacking is hard to find in college football. Appreciate this.
Boca Raton Bowl
Memphis (8-4) vs. Western Kentucky (10-3)
December 20, 4:00 p.m.
The Boca Raton Bowl features one of those classic bowl puzzles. WKU was unquestionably the better team this year, finishing with a better offense and defense and winning a conference title. But Memphis is a good team in its own right, and can counter excellent Hilltoppers QB Mike White with a high-quality passer of its own in Riley Ferguson. More to the point, WKU just lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue, while the Tigers don't have to deal with that kind of transition. Given that both offenses are likely to explode, this looks to be a back-and-forth contest. Despite the stats favoring the Hilltoppers, I think Memphis is the smarter pick.
Watchability: 4. There's going to be scoring.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-5)
December 21, 6:00 p.m.
Wyoming was a great underdog to root for this year, but the Cowboys are in over their heads here. After a 7-2 start that included a magical upset of Boise State, Wyoming got shredded by UNLV and New Mexico and (predictably) lost a rematch with San Diego State in the Mountain West title game. BYU played a rough independent schedule and lost four games by a combined eights points, with three of those losses coming against Power Five teams (and the fourth to Boise State). The Cougars are flat-out more talented than the plucky Cowboys and should prove it in this game. The lack of QB Taysom Hill definitely gives me reason to pause, but I'm still taking BYU.
Watchability: 2. Both teams are decent, but there's no real hook here.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Idaho (8-4) vs. Colorado State (7-5)
December 22, 4:00 p.m.
In what could be Idaho's final bowl game before dropping down to the FCS level after the 2017 season, the Vandals get to stay in-state to face a regional foe in CSU. I want to root for Idaho in this game, but the Rams are a smarter pick. Both teams have decent defenses, but CSU's offense is a lot stronger, which figures to put a strain on the talent-strapped Vandals. Idaho's record was also made in the Sun Belt, and it's always a good idea to pick against the nation's weakest conference whenever possible. Colorado State plays in Boise every other year; this won't be much of a home field advantage for the Vandals.
Watchability: 1. Unless you're into the sweet nostalgia of Idaho in the FBS.
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs. Old Dominion (9-3)
December 23, 10:00 a.m.
Who are the lucky teams that drew the Bahamas Bowl this year, you ask? Why, merely a school making its first postseason appearance in 29 years (EMU) and another making its first ever (ODU). What a delightful pairing, and a couple of teams worthy of getting a little island vacation. Eastern was the perennial doormat of the MAC West, but a 5-2 start in 2016 all but guaranteed the Eagles would get to a bowl for the first time since 1987. Old Dominion, meanwhile, joined the FBS in just 2014, so this is a pretty sweet landing spot for a first bowl. The Monarchs are favored for good reason; they went 7-1 in the Conference USA and won their last five, while EMU weathered a lot of injuries to finish with seven wins. ODU is the pick.
Watchability: 2, because of the history involved, but otherwise this game offers little.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs. Navy (9-4)
December 23, 1: 30 p.m.
Both schools enter the bowl on a bit of a down note after otherwise successful seasons. Tech won seven straight after a 1-3 start, but ended the regular season with a big loss to Southern Miss and followed it up with a shootout loss to Western Kentucky (a team the Bulldogs had already beaten) in the Conference USA Championship. Navy fought off tough challenges from Memphis, Tulsa and Houston to win the American's West division, only to get thrashed by Temple in the title game and fall again last week to rival Army. I would have taken the Midshipmen a few weeks ago, but QB injuries make Navy a significantly tougher sell now. LTU is the better pick, given the state of the opposition's quarterbacking.
Watchability: 3. These are still a pair of very impressive offenses.
Dollar General Bowl
Ohio (8-5) vs. Troy (9-3)
December 23, 5:00 p.m.
As far as first-week mid-major bowl clashes go, this one's pretty promising. Ohio and Troy boast the nation's 31st- and 32nd-ranked defenses, so unlike most Group of Five teams, they're actually competent defensively. The advantage comes on the other side of the ball, where the Trojans have a sizeable edge on offense. I like Ohio's run-heavy attack, which very nearly upset Western Michigan in the MAC title game, but Troy has a lot more to offer offensively and is more balanced. The Trojans have also simply been better this season; this team nearly won at Clemson, for goodness' sake. The Sun Belt is a tough league to trust, but Troy deserves to be favored here.
Watchability: 3. We're dealing with mid-majors, but a couple that are actually decent.
That's it for the opening week of bowl season, but Week Two is where things really heat up. There are 20 games next week after this week's opening dozen, and the competition also tends to get a lot better in the more prestigious bowls. See you then.
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
The Committee gets it right again
National Overview
It's rare to see a weekend with no surprises, but that's exactly what we got this Championship Week. The conference title games were easy enough to pick that I went a perfect eight-for-eight, including the Bedlam Game, and Temple beating Navy was the only true upset in that group. The predictability continued into Sunday, when the Committee chose the exact four teams everyone expected.
Navy should rebound to beat Army in this week's only contest to send the Midshipmen to another 10-win season under Ken Niumatalolo, who continues to quietly build one of the most impressive coaching resumes in the country. It's fair to wonder when Niumatalolo, like his predecessor Paul Johnson, will get the call from a major-conference school.
College Football Playoff
The Committee's job is never easy, but for the third time in three years the humans have proved superior to their computer predecessors. Alabama was the obvious, easy choice for the top seed. Clemson, despite its general struggles this season, deserved the second spot over Ohio State thanks to the tiebreaker of a conference championship. And Washington, 12-1 Pac-12 winner, was a shoo-in with the blowout win over Colorado.
2016's bracket demonstrates once again why the Playoff should forever be constrained to four teams. An eight-team bracket would have included two-loss teams in Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma and either Wisconsin or USC. None of those teams are remotely worthy of playing a championship this season, including Penn State, which lost to Michigan by 39 points.
There has been, and will continue to be, a great deal of debate about Ohio State's inclusion. When conference championships are the most important factor (as they always have been in college football), including a squad that failed to win its own conference will always be hard to swallow. But the uncomfortable truth is, just as in 2014, it's very clear the Buckeyes are one of the four best teams in the country. The loss to Penn State was halfway between a fluke and a miracle, and OSU is unquestionably a better team. The evidence is all over the 2016 season. If the Playoff really is about matching up the four most deserving, worthy teams, Ohio State has to be the choice.
Pac-12 Report
There's not much to say about Washington's dominant victory over Colorado. The Huskies have been on the upswing longer than the Buffaloes and thus had a sizeable talent edge. Colorado probably needed a great game from its offense and a few breaks to beat UW; neither of those things happened. Washington was able to calm down and breathe after a back-and-forth first half, at which point things unraveled for the Buffs.
Give CU a lot of credit for battling back after the Huskies scored a distressingly easy opening drive touchdown; the Buffaloes tied it up by the end of the first quarter and got the ball back with a chance to take the lead (and put some real pressure on favored UW). But both offenses stalled out after the Huskies regained the lead, and the back-to-back picks to start the second half effectively ended the game.
I'm curious as to why Colorado stuck with injured senior quarterback Sefo Liufao for the majority of the game. After Liufao left the game in the first quarter, Steven Montez performed reasonably well, and the freshman had proved throughout the year he was more than capable when filling in for Liufao. But Liufao returned to the game, despite Montez leading the Buffaloes to their only TD, and threw three killer interceptions. I don't know if Mike MacIntyre was just being loyal to his senior, but it was interesting to see the superior passer in Montez on the bench as the lead grew for UW in the second half.
Heisman Watch
My choice is still Texas RB D'onta Foreman, who went for a superhuman 2,000 yards in 11 games this season for a middling offense and a team that was often behind in the second half. As usual, the voters have nominated a slew of undeserving players instead, choosing to leave Foreman out of the finalists entirely. For some reason Oklahoma WR Dede Westbrook, who has zero chance of winning, was invited. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who had a very disappointing year, made the cut, as did Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, who would go down as the worst winner in Heisman history after his atrocious performance in November.
But the oddest choice is easily Michigan linebacker/safety/returner hybrid Jabrill Peppers, who is clearly in New York because voters decided Michigan, as one of the best teams in the nation this year, had to have a Heisman finalist. Peppers is a good player and did a lot of all-around work for the Wolverines, but this has to feel like a sick joke to Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second last season despite setting a new FBS total all-purpose yardage record. Look at Peppers' year and decide for yourself: 47 solo tackles (72 overall), four sacks, one interception, one forced fumble. He also rushed for 167 yards and had 570 yards on kick and punt returns. Once again: is this a joke?
Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield is the last finalist, and he's again my choice to to win from another frustrating group of candidates (Mayfield was also my fallback option among the finalists last year). I think his struggles in OU's two losses early in the year, which eliminated the Sooners from Playoff contention, should have been enough to drop Mayfield from the running, but now that he's in New York he's once again the best option in a pool of undeserving players.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Another good argument for the four teams in the Playoff is that all four have one or zero losses. These are the only Power Five teams with records of that quality. Penn State can whine all it wants about winning "the nation's best conference" (we'll see about that during the bowl season). It doesn't matter. The Nittany Lions only have to look to their 2-2 start, which included losses to 8-4 Pittsburgh and a 39-point shellacking to Michigan, to see why they weren't seriously considered for the Playoff.
As for Michigan, well, the Wolverines are whining even more than Penn State (that's what you get when you hire Jim Harbaugh), but maybe you shouldn't lose two of your last three games and fail to win even a share of a division title. I was suspicious of UM all year, and that upset at Iowa combined with the collapse against Ohio State merely served to confirm this isn't a top-five squad. It's hard to feel bad for a team that completely controls its own destiny and loses twice at the end of the season.
2016 Stanzi Awards
There were two awards in this abbreviated week, and shockingly, both went to previous winners. That means our field of finalists expands to 14, a truly impressive number that demonstrates how fantastic this year has been.
Week 14 Awards
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
Opponent: Ohio
Performance: Two INT, won by six
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
2016 Stanzi Award Winner
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
49 players: tied with 1
It was always going to be Deshaun Watson. The Clemson passer really outdid himself in the second half of the season, building an insurmountable lead that even late charges from the likes of Baker Mayfield, Troy Williams and Dallas Davis couldn't top. Congratulations, Deshaun!
That's it for the regular season! I'll be back next week with the start of my bowl previews. It's been another weird, wonderful year of college football, and the marvelous insanity of bowl season promises even more riches to come. Thanks for reading.
It's rare to see a weekend with no surprises, but that's exactly what we got this Championship Week. The conference title games were easy enough to pick that I went a perfect eight-for-eight, including the Bedlam Game, and Temple beating Navy was the only true upset in that group. The predictability continued into Sunday, when the Committee chose the exact four teams everyone expected.
Navy should rebound to beat Army in this week's only contest to send the Midshipmen to another 10-win season under Ken Niumatalolo, who continues to quietly build one of the most impressive coaching resumes in the country. It's fair to wonder when Niumatalolo, like his predecessor Paul Johnson, will get the call from a major-conference school.
College Football Playoff
The Committee's job is never easy, but for the third time in three years the humans have proved superior to their computer predecessors. Alabama was the obvious, easy choice for the top seed. Clemson, despite its general struggles this season, deserved the second spot over Ohio State thanks to the tiebreaker of a conference championship. And Washington, 12-1 Pac-12 winner, was a shoo-in with the blowout win over Colorado.
2016's bracket demonstrates once again why the Playoff should forever be constrained to four teams. An eight-team bracket would have included two-loss teams in Penn State, Michigan, Oklahoma and either Wisconsin or USC. None of those teams are remotely worthy of playing a championship this season, including Penn State, which lost to Michigan by 39 points.
There has been, and will continue to be, a great deal of debate about Ohio State's inclusion. When conference championships are the most important factor (as they always have been in college football), including a squad that failed to win its own conference will always be hard to swallow. But the uncomfortable truth is, just as in 2014, it's very clear the Buckeyes are one of the four best teams in the country. The loss to Penn State was halfway between a fluke and a miracle, and OSU is unquestionably a better team. The evidence is all over the 2016 season. If the Playoff really is about matching up the four most deserving, worthy teams, Ohio State has to be the choice.
Pac-12 Report
There's not much to say about Washington's dominant victory over Colorado. The Huskies have been on the upswing longer than the Buffaloes and thus had a sizeable talent edge. Colorado probably needed a great game from its offense and a few breaks to beat UW; neither of those things happened. Washington was able to calm down and breathe after a back-and-forth first half, at which point things unraveled for the Buffs.
Give CU a lot of credit for battling back after the Huskies scored a distressingly easy opening drive touchdown; the Buffaloes tied it up by the end of the first quarter and got the ball back with a chance to take the lead (and put some real pressure on favored UW). But both offenses stalled out after the Huskies regained the lead, and the back-to-back picks to start the second half effectively ended the game.
I'm curious as to why Colorado stuck with injured senior quarterback Sefo Liufao for the majority of the game. After Liufao left the game in the first quarter, Steven Montez performed reasonably well, and the freshman had proved throughout the year he was more than capable when filling in for Liufao. But Liufao returned to the game, despite Montez leading the Buffaloes to their only TD, and threw three killer interceptions. I don't know if Mike MacIntyre was just being loyal to his senior, but it was interesting to see the superior passer in Montez on the bench as the lead grew for UW in the second half.
Heisman Watch
My choice is still Texas RB D'onta Foreman, who went for a superhuman 2,000 yards in 11 games this season for a middling offense and a team that was often behind in the second half. As usual, the voters have nominated a slew of undeserving players instead, choosing to leave Foreman out of the finalists entirely. For some reason Oklahoma WR Dede Westbrook, who has zero chance of winning, was invited. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who had a very disappointing year, made the cut, as did Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, who would go down as the worst winner in Heisman history after his atrocious performance in November.
But the oddest choice is easily Michigan linebacker/safety/returner hybrid Jabrill Peppers, who is clearly in New York because voters decided Michigan, as one of the best teams in the nation this year, had to have a Heisman finalist. Peppers is a good player and did a lot of all-around work for the Wolverines, but this has to feel like a sick joke to Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second last season despite setting a new FBS total all-purpose yardage record. Look at Peppers' year and decide for yourself: 47 solo tackles (72 overall), four sacks, one interception, one forced fumble. He also rushed for 167 yards and had 570 yards on kick and punt returns. Once again: is this a joke?
Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield is the last finalist, and he's again my choice to to win from another frustrating group of candidates (Mayfield was also my fallback option among the finalists last year). I think his struggles in OU's two losses early in the year, which eliminated the Sooners from Playoff contention, should have been enough to drop Mayfield from the running, but now that he's in New York he's once again the best option in a pool of undeserving players.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Another good argument for the four teams in the Playoff is that all four have one or zero losses. These are the only Power Five teams with records of that quality. Penn State can whine all it wants about winning "the nation's best conference" (we'll see about that during the bowl season). It doesn't matter. The Nittany Lions only have to look to their 2-2 start, which included losses to 8-4 Pittsburgh and a 39-point shellacking to Michigan, to see why they weren't seriously considered for the Playoff.
As for Michigan, well, the Wolverines are whining even more than Penn State (that's what you get when you hire Jim Harbaugh), but maybe you shouldn't lose two of your last three games and fail to win even a share of a division title. I was suspicious of UM all year, and that upset at Iowa combined with the collapse against Ohio State merely served to confirm this isn't a top-five squad. It's hard to feel bad for a team that completely controls its own destiny and loses twice at the end of the season.
2016 Stanzi Awards
There were two awards in this abbreviated week, and shockingly, both went to previous winners. That means our field of finalists expands to 14, a truly impressive number that demonstrates how fantastic this year has been.
Week 14 Awards
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
Opponent: Ohio
Performance: Two INT, won by six
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
2016 Stanzi Award Winner
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
49 players: tied with 1
It was always going to be Deshaun Watson. The Clemson passer really outdid himself in the second half of the season, building an insurmountable lead that even late charges from the likes of Baker Mayfield, Troy Williams and Dallas Davis couldn't top. Congratulations, Deshaun!
That's it for the regular season! I'll be back next week with the start of my bowl previews. It's been another weird, wonderful year of college football, and the marvelous insanity of bowl season promises even more riches to come. Thanks for reading.
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Last Thoughts
National Overview
Rivalry Week provided even more delights than anticipated, turning the long Thanksgiving holiday into a celebration of the best college football has to offer. There was some quality #MACtion in the mid-week, an Apple Cup coronation for Washington, Air Force taking out Boise State for the third straight year and Western Michigan finishing 12-0, all before Saturday!
The excitement continued into the weekend, with a thrilling finish at The Shoe, a nail-biter in Boulder, a huge upset from Kentucky and a plethora of photo-finishes in heated rivalry games. When the dust cleared, we had our division winners, though they didn't arrive without some blood, sweat and tears (and whining. Thanks, Jim Harbaugh).
Friday night marks the first time this season a team can truly lock up a spot in the Playoff, when Washington and Colorado meet in the Pac-12 Championship. If the Huskies win, they're in*. Colorado can still conceivably make the final four, but it would take a lot falling the right way for the Buffaloes. CU can dream, but it's unlikely.
*Provided there are no shenanigans from the Committee
Earlier in the evening, Ohio and Western Michigan will play for the MAC title. Fortunately, just as in the Pac-12, this will be a matchup of teams that didn't play in the regular season. WMU is the heavy favorite for a reason - the Broncos are aiming for 13-0, after all - and should win, but the pressure as the undefeated mid-major looking ahead to major-bowl glory has tripped up several teams in the past.
We kick off Saturday with two official conference championship games, along with another contest that will decide a league title. First, there's the delightful American Championship, pitting a pair of nine-win teams in Temple and Navy in Annapolis. The Midshipmen could complete a marvelous 11-2 campaign with wins here and against rival Army next week, while the Owls are looking to rebound from a loss in the title game last year. Navy is the slight favorite, and though I love this team, I have to pick against it. Temple has the third-best defense in the country behind Alabama and Michigan and should do enough to slow the option to secure the win.
Next, there's Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game. This should be a barnburner after Tech took the first meeting earlier in the year in a 55-52 shootout. Expect more of the same, as both the Bulldogs and Hilltoppers rank in the top 15 nationally in offense. Quarterbacks Mike White (WKU) and Ryan Higgins (LTU) will both top 4,000 yards passing by season's end, and both squads also boast 1,000-yard receivers and running backs. Ultimately, I like Western, playing at home, with a superior defense (a respectable 28th nationally), to prevail.
The Bedlam Game is in Norman this year, with Oklahoma rightly favored to rip off nine straight wins after that 1-2 nonconference performance. Oklahoma State is pretty good, and an upset of the Sooners - along with some Committee sympathy regarding that officiating fiasco in the Central Michigan game - could potentially put the Cowboys in the Playoff. The more likely scenario is OU simply winning out. Oklahoma won't make the CFP without a lot of help, though.
The midday slate should see another squad punch a ticket to the final four, when Alabama meets Florida in the SEC Championship for the second consecutive year. The Gators have a very good defense, but Bama's is better, and this matchup lost a lot of luster with UF's blowout loss to Florida State last week. Florida doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide, who should check another box on the "2016 National Championship Run" to-do list.
It would have been laughable before this season began to suggest the Mountain West title game would be held in Laramie, but that's where the league finds itself after Wyoming knocked off Boise State and San Diego State in the regular season to grab the tiebreaker over the Aztecs. The conference had a terrible day last Saturday, as all three of the aforementioned squads (the best teams in the MWC) lost, including blowouts for SDSU and Wyoming. Even though it's on the road, I like San Diego State to rebound from the loss to the Cowboys a few weeks back and claim back-to-back titles.
Prime time brings the final two games, and possibly the other two Playoff bids, into the spotlight. The ACC Championship should be a mere coronation as Clemson takes on a highly flawed Virginia Tech team. The Big Ten title game is another story. Wisconsin won the weaker division, but played the two best teams in the East, so the schedule difference is moot. The Badgers were clearly the best squad over the first half of the season. Penn State was the better team over the second half, but it remains to be seen how much of that was because of a weak schedule. Wisconsin has the superior defense; PSU, the superior offense. I think the Nittany Lions are more likely to win.
The question is, what does that mean for the Playoff?
Playoff Poll
Things have gotten very interesting.
First Tier
Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Ohio State
Here's the problem with the Big Ten getting two teams in: Ohio State would be bypassing a Power Five champion to do so. Alabama and Clemson are locks with wins this week; Washington is only slightly less so. If OSU is getting in, it should be at the expense of its own conference winner. Anything else would be an outrage.
Second Tier
Penn State
Wisconsin
If the Nittany Lions win, they'll have a better argument for jumping the Buckeyes thanks to their head-to-head triumph. If the Badgers win, their argument is weaker, given that they lost to OSU. Both teams would benefit significantly from a Colorado win Friday.
Third Tier
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Western Michigan
The Sooners need help. As in, Alabama, Clemson and Washington all losing kind of help. Okie State needs even more. Colorado would have an argument with a win, but only a slim one (that loss to USC was killer). As for WMU, well, we can always dream.
Pac-12 Report
As expected, USC and Stanford won their non-league contests. I predicted Cal would beat UCLA, resulting in a needed coaching change in L.A., but even I didn't expect the 36-10 thrashing the Bears laid on the Bruins. Arizona running all over ASU was also a bit unexpected, but Oregon State knocking off Oregon wasn't.
Fortunately, the two best teams won, so we were at least gifted with a legitimate conference title game. Washington hadn't looked that good against a quality opponent in some time, so good on the Huskies for showing up in a big way just in time for the Committee to take note. Colorado suffered some very noticeable big-game jitters, dropping passes all over the place, fumbling and allowing special-teams breakdowns. In the end, however, the Buffs got a deserved victory to complete the comeback story of the year in college football.
It's worth stating once again what a remarkable turnaround this has been. Colorado won five games (five!) in its first five SEASONS in the Pac-12. Just last year, the Buffaloes went 1-8 in conference play. This season saw CU go a magical 8-1 and vanquish a decades' worth of demons en route to the South title. It's been amazing to watch, and if it doesn't earn Mike MacIntyre national Coach of the Year honors the award means nothing.
I feel it's necessary to reiterate these things because the charmed ride probably comes to an end Friday in Santa Clara. Make no mistake: Colorado is good enough to beat Washington. The secret to the Buffs' success has been their lockdown defense, which was the best in the conference this season, beating out even Washington's (despite coming against a tougher schedule). CU's offense is no joke, either. But after a meltdown against USC and a shaky start with ASU, UW has come roaring back to life.
The Huskies again look like the unquestioned best team in the Pac-12, and after a pair of close, emotionally-charged games at home the past two weeks, Colorado is ripe for a first-quarter reality check. That may not have cost them against a bad offensive team in Utah, but it will against Washington. The Huskies are balanced and explosive offensively, and their superior talent level on the lines will make this game an uphill battle for the Buffs. I can envision scenarios that end in Colorado wins (and what a story that would be!), but the more likely outcome is that Washington will be the Pac-12 champion.
Heisman Watch
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
Barring an incredible performance this week, the Heisman should be Foreman's. It's amazing to think Derrick Henry could win the award last year with inferior numbers running behind Alabama's line, while Foreman might not even make the ceremony despite carrying the inept Longhorns with a nation-leading 2,028 yards in just 11 games.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Back to his usual efficient, defense-shredding ways, Browing made the Apple Cup a laugher in the first quarter thanks to three quick touchdown passes. He's now just the third QB in Pac-12 history with at least 40 TD's in a season, and another nice performance against Colorado's stout D should earn him a trip to New York.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
He threw two early picks against Auburn as Bama got off to a slow start, then guided the Crimson Tide to a comfortable 30-12 win over their rival. Hurts has performed at a level far beyond his years this season, but even so, a game like he had last week should have dropped him in the rankings. It would have, if not for...
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
It's a testament to Jackson's prolific numbers that he even remains on the list. No Heisman winner has ever had a two-game stretch to end the season as bad as the one Jackson just had, capped by a four-turnover disaster in the second half to lose to Kentucky at home. This guy is going to win the Heisman? Get out of here.
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
With a masterful 19-for-25, three-TD effort in WMU's thrashing of Toledo, Terrell finishes the regular season with 30 TD passes to just one interception. It's inconceivable that the most important player in Broncos history would miss out on the ceremony, but I doubt he'll receive enough late-ballot votes to get there.
Random Thoughts and Observations
How's that nine-game schedule treating you, Big Ten? In the very first year since moving up to an adult schedule, the conference suffered controversy and agony as the third- and fourth-best teams in the league ended up playing for the title. This is what can happen when you ask your schools to actually play the majority of their peers. Who knows what happens if Ohio State doesn't have to travel to West division winner Wisconsin a week before losing at Penn State, or how Michigan fares without that late-season slugest at cross-division foe Iowa? In previous years, such matchups might have been avoided.
The Big 12 has felt the pain of a nine-game conference slate in recent years. In a bit of delicious irony, the league that claimed it didn't need another conference game because of its title contest immediately rebranded with the slogan "ONE TRUE CHAMPION" upon dropping to 10 members - then promptly awarded TCU and Baylor a co-championship in 2014 and missed the initial Playoff entirely. It turns out that, yes, forcing the entire league to play an additional game within the conference makes things more difficult on the national level.
Of course, the Pac-12 is well familiar with this, having adopted the nine-game schedule in 2006, long before the other Power conferences ever dreamed of it. It's been devastating to the league's national championship hopes; in 2006 (USC), 2008 (USC), 2011 (Oregon), 2012 (Oregon), and 2015 (Stanford), the Pac-12 champ suffered a conference loss that kept it out of the BCS Championship or Playoff. The effect has been so detrimental there have been calls for the Pac-12 to return to an eight-game schedule, but with the Big 12 - and more importantly, the Big Ten - now on board, it seems much more likely this is a route all conferences will ultimately be forced to choose.
It's certainly the way the ACC is going to have to go. The SEC has long maintained its internal quality excuses it from such lesser-conference trivialities, but if the other four Power conferences band together the SEC will eventually have no choice. That's means it's up to the ACC to get with the program, and as I said, it simply has to happen soon. Clemson's run will end this year, and there are no future guaranteed Playoff entrants from the ACC. With nearly half a conference of dead weight/basketball schools, it's already the weakest of the Power Five on a year-by-year basis, and an eight-game schedule is going to cost the league a final four spot in the very near future. The smart, proactive move would be to go to nine games at the earliest possible date (probably 2018). But we'll see if it takes missing out on the Playoff first.
2016 Stanzi Awards
What a send-off! After the quietest week of the season, Week 13 came through with three individual awards and a trio of Double Stanzis, including two that landed their heroes squarely on the short list for the ultimate trophy. There's only one more week, but enough finalists are still playing that there's some intrigue left. Can someone come from behind and steal this thing from Deshaun Watson?
Week 13 Awards
Dane Evans, Tulsa
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh
Opponent: Syracuse
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 15
David Washington, Old Dominion
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: One INT (for TD), two FUM, won by 14
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Sefo Liufao, Colorado
Opponent: Utah
Performance: Two FUM, won by five
Troy Williams, Utah
Opponent: Colorado
Performance: Two INT, lost by five
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Purdue
Performance: Three INT, won by two
David Blough, Purdue
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, lost by two
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Matt Linehan, Idaho
Opponent: South Alabama
Performance: Three INT, wony by seven
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: Idaho
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
51 players: tied with 1
Rivalry Week provided even more delights than anticipated, turning the long Thanksgiving holiday into a celebration of the best college football has to offer. There was some quality #MACtion in the mid-week, an Apple Cup coronation for Washington, Air Force taking out Boise State for the third straight year and Western Michigan finishing 12-0, all before Saturday!
The excitement continued into the weekend, with a thrilling finish at The Shoe, a nail-biter in Boulder, a huge upset from Kentucky and a plethora of photo-finishes in heated rivalry games. When the dust cleared, we had our division winners, though they didn't arrive without some blood, sweat and tears (and whining. Thanks, Jim Harbaugh).
Friday night marks the first time this season a team can truly lock up a spot in the Playoff, when Washington and Colorado meet in the Pac-12 Championship. If the Huskies win, they're in*. Colorado can still conceivably make the final four, but it would take a lot falling the right way for the Buffaloes. CU can dream, but it's unlikely.
*Provided there are no shenanigans from the Committee
Earlier in the evening, Ohio and Western Michigan will play for the MAC title. Fortunately, just as in the Pac-12, this will be a matchup of teams that didn't play in the regular season. WMU is the heavy favorite for a reason - the Broncos are aiming for 13-0, after all - and should win, but the pressure as the undefeated mid-major looking ahead to major-bowl glory has tripped up several teams in the past.
We kick off Saturday with two official conference championship games, along with another contest that will decide a league title. First, there's the delightful American Championship, pitting a pair of nine-win teams in Temple and Navy in Annapolis. The Midshipmen could complete a marvelous 11-2 campaign with wins here and against rival Army next week, while the Owls are looking to rebound from a loss in the title game last year. Navy is the slight favorite, and though I love this team, I have to pick against it. Temple has the third-best defense in the country behind Alabama and Michigan and should do enough to slow the option to secure the win.
Next, there's Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game. This should be a barnburner after Tech took the first meeting earlier in the year in a 55-52 shootout. Expect more of the same, as both the Bulldogs and Hilltoppers rank in the top 15 nationally in offense. Quarterbacks Mike White (WKU) and Ryan Higgins (LTU) will both top 4,000 yards passing by season's end, and both squads also boast 1,000-yard receivers and running backs. Ultimately, I like Western, playing at home, with a superior defense (a respectable 28th nationally), to prevail.
The Bedlam Game is in Norman this year, with Oklahoma rightly favored to rip off nine straight wins after that 1-2 nonconference performance. Oklahoma State is pretty good, and an upset of the Sooners - along with some Committee sympathy regarding that officiating fiasco in the Central Michigan game - could potentially put the Cowboys in the Playoff. The more likely scenario is OU simply winning out. Oklahoma won't make the CFP without a lot of help, though.
The midday slate should see another squad punch a ticket to the final four, when Alabama meets Florida in the SEC Championship for the second consecutive year. The Gators have a very good defense, but Bama's is better, and this matchup lost a lot of luster with UF's blowout loss to Florida State last week. Florida doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide, who should check another box on the "2016 National Championship Run" to-do list.
It would have been laughable before this season began to suggest the Mountain West title game would be held in Laramie, but that's where the league finds itself after Wyoming knocked off Boise State and San Diego State in the regular season to grab the tiebreaker over the Aztecs. The conference had a terrible day last Saturday, as all three of the aforementioned squads (the best teams in the MWC) lost, including blowouts for SDSU and Wyoming. Even though it's on the road, I like San Diego State to rebound from the loss to the Cowboys a few weeks back and claim back-to-back titles.
Prime time brings the final two games, and possibly the other two Playoff bids, into the spotlight. The ACC Championship should be a mere coronation as Clemson takes on a highly flawed Virginia Tech team. The Big Ten title game is another story. Wisconsin won the weaker division, but played the two best teams in the East, so the schedule difference is moot. The Badgers were clearly the best squad over the first half of the season. Penn State was the better team over the second half, but it remains to be seen how much of that was because of a weak schedule. Wisconsin has the superior defense; PSU, the superior offense. I think the Nittany Lions are more likely to win.
The question is, what does that mean for the Playoff?
Playoff Poll
Things have gotten very interesting.
First Tier
Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Ohio State
Here's the problem with the Big Ten getting two teams in: Ohio State would be bypassing a Power Five champion to do so. Alabama and Clemson are locks with wins this week; Washington is only slightly less so. If OSU is getting in, it should be at the expense of its own conference winner. Anything else would be an outrage.
Second Tier
Penn State
Wisconsin
If the Nittany Lions win, they'll have a better argument for jumping the Buckeyes thanks to their head-to-head triumph. If the Badgers win, their argument is weaker, given that they lost to OSU. Both teams would benefit significantly from a Colorado win Friday.
Third Tier
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Western Michigan
The Sooners need help. As in, Alabama, Clemson and Washington all losing kind of help. Okie State needs even more. Colorado would have an argument with a win, but only a slim one (that loss to USC was killer). As for WMU, well, we can always dream.
Pac-12 Report
As expected, USC and Stanford won their non-league contests. I predicted Cal would beat UCLA, resulting in a needed coaching change in L.A., but even I didn't expect the 36-10 thrashing the Bears laid on the Bruins. Arizona running all over ASU was also a bit unexpected, but Oregon State knocking off Oregon wasn't.
Fortunately, the two best teams won, so we were at least gifted with a legitimate conference title game. Washington hadn't looked that good against a quality opponent in some time, so good on the Huskies for showing up in a big way just in time for the Committee to take note. Colorado suffered some very noticeable big-game jitters, dropping passes all over the place, fumbling and allowing special-teams breakdowns. In the end, however, the Buffs got a deserved victory to complete the comeback story of the year in college football.
It's worth stating once again what a remarkable turnaround this has been. Colorado won five games (five!) in its first five SEASONS in the Pac-12. Just last year, the Buffaloes went 1-8 in conference play. This season saw CU go a magical 8-1 and vanquish a decades' worth of demons en route to the South title. It's been amazing to watch, and if it doesn't earn Mike MacIntyre national Coach of the Year honors the award means nothing.
I feel it's necessary to reiterate these things because the charmed ride probably comes to an end Friday in Santa Clara. Make no mistake: Colorado is good enough to beat Washington. The secret to the Buffs' success has been their lockdown defense, which was the best in the conference this season, beating out even Washington's (despite coming against a tougher schedule). CU's offense is no joke, either. But after a meltdown against USC and a shaky start with ASU, UW has come roaring back to life.
The Huskies again look like the unquestioned best team in the Pac-12, and after a pair of close, emotionally-charged games at home the past two weeks, Colorado is ripe for a first-quarter reality check. That may not have cost them against a bad offensive team in Utah, but it will against Washington. The Huskies are balanced and explosive offensively, and their superior talent level on the lines will make this game an uphill battle for the Buffs. I can envision scenarios that end in Colorado wins (and what a story that would be!), but the more likely outcome is that Washington will be the Pac-12 champion.
Heisman Watch
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
Barring an incredible performance this week, the Heisman should be Foreman's. It's amazing to think Derrick Henry could win the award last year with inferior numbers running behind Alabama's line, while Foreman might not even make the ceremony despite carrying the inept Longhorns with a nation-leading 2,028 yards in just 11 games.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Back to his usual efficient, defense-shredding ways, Browing made the Apple Cup a laugher in the first quarter thanks to three quick touchdown passes. He's now just the third QB in Pac-12 history with at least 40 TD's in a season, and another nice performance against Colorado's stout D should earn him a trip to New York.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
He threw two early picks against Auburn as Bama got off to a slow start, then guided the Crimson Tide to a comfortable 30-12 win over their rival. Hurts has performed at a level far beyond his years this season, but even so, a game like he had last week should have dropped him in the rankings. It would have, if not for...
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
It's a testament to Jackson's prolific numbers that he even remains on the list. No Heisman winner has ever had a two-game stretch to end the season as bad as the one Jackson just had, capped by a four-turnover disaster in the second half to lose to Kentucky at home. This guy is going to win the Heisman? Get out of here.
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
With a masterful 19-for-25, three-TD effort in WMU's thrashing of Toledo, Terrell finishes the regular season with 30 TD passes to just one interception. It's inconceivable that the most important player in Broncos history would miss out on the ceremony, but I doubt he'll receive enough late-ballot votes to get there.
Random Thoughts and Observations
How's that nine-game schedule treating you, Big Ten? In the very first year since moving up to an adult schedule, the conference suffered controversy and agony as the third- and fourth-best teams in the league ended up playing for the title. This is what can happen when you ask your schools to actually play the majority of their peers. Who knows what happens if Ohio State doesn't have to travel to West division winner Wisconsin a week before losing at Penn State, or how Michigan fares without that late-season slugest at cross-division foe Iowa? In previous years, such matchups might have been avoided.
The Big 12 has felt the pain of a nine-game conference slate in recent years. In a bit of delicious irony, the league that claimed it didn't need another conference game because of its title contest immediately rebranded with the slogan "ONE TRUE CHAMPION" upon dropping to 10 members - then promptly awarded TCU and Baylor a co-championship in 2014 and missed the initial Playoff entirely. It turns out that, yes, forcing the entire league to play an additional game within the conference makes things more difficult on the national level.
Of course, the Pac-12 is well familiar with this, having adopted the nine-game schedule in 2006, long before the other Power conferences ever dreamed of it. It's been devastating to the league's national championship hopes; in 2006 (USC), 2008 (USC), 2011 (Oregon), 2012 (Oregon), and 2015 (Stanford), the Pac-12 champ suffered a conference loss that kept it out of the BCS Championship or Playoff. The effect has been so detrimental there have been calls for the Pac-12 to return to an eight-game schedule, but with the Big 12 - and more importantly, the Big Ten - now on board, it seems much more likely this is a route all conferences will ultimately be forced to choose.
It's certainly the way the ACC is going to have to go. The SEC has long maintained its internal quality excuses it from such lesser-conference trivialities, but if the other four Power conferences band together the SEC will eventually have no choice. That's means it's up to the ACC to get with the program, and as I said, it simply has to happen soon. Clemson's run will end this year, and there are no future guaranteed Playoff entrants from the ACC. With nearly half a conference of dead weight/basketball schools, it's already the weakest of the Power Five on a year-by-year basis, and an eight-game schedule is going to cost the league a final four spot in the very near future. The smart, proactive move would be to go to nine games at the earliest possible date (probably 2018). But we'll see if it takes missing out on the Playoff first.
2016 Stanzi Awards
What a send-off! After the quietest week of the season, Week 13 came through with three individual awards and a trio of Double Stanzis, including two that landed their heroes squarely on the short list for the ultimate trophy. There's only one more week, but enough finalists are still playing that there's some intrigue left. Can someone come from behind and steal this thing from Deshaun Watson?
Week 13 Awards
Dane Evans, Tulsa
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh
Opponent: Syracuse
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 15
David Washington, Old Dominion
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: One INT (for TD), two FUM, won by 14
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Sefo Liufao, Colorado
Opponent: Utah
Performance: Two FUM, won by five
Troy Williams, Utah
Opponent: Colorado
Performance: Two INT, lost by five
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Purdue
Performance: Three INT, won by two
David Blough, Purdue
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, lost by two
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Matt Linehan, Idaho
Opponent: South Alabama
Performance: Three INT, wony by seven
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: Idaho
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
51 players: tied with 1
Look at that! 12 multiple-award finalists, 51 other one-off efforts, and a down-to-the-wire race that won't be settled until the conference championships end. This has been a season for the ages, one that will go down in Stanzi lore.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Down and Out at Louisville and Texas
National Overview
Well, scratch Louisville. My thoughts at the end of last week's blog turned out to be surprisingly prescient, as the Cardinals went down in embarrassing fashion at Houston on Thursday night. All of Louisville's weaknesses - lack of elite talent, an unsophisticated offense, and a schedule loaded with cream puffs - came back to haunt Lamar Jackson and Company when the Cards went up against an opponent with equal (or probably greater) talent across the board.
But a landscape-shifting upset this was not; as I said last week, Louisville was already extremely unlikely to make the Playoff. Clemson took care of business by trouncing Wake Forest on Saturday, ensuring the Tigers will play in the ACC Championship. Without that feather in the otherwise unremarkable cap that is Louisville's resume, the Cardinals would have been hard-pressed to provide convincing evidence to the Playoff committee for their inclusion. The loss to Houston merely confirms the inevitable.
Alabama did what Bama does every year against its annual FCS foe: barely show up. The Crimson Tide have a habit of sleepwalking through their November Iron Bowl tune-up, and this year was no exception. What, then, were Michigan and Ohio State's excuses this week? The rivals needed second-half stands to hold off bad conference opponents, teams they had to beat to ensure this week's clash would mean something. Yet more evidence that neither is ready to face Bama.
In forehead-slappingly irritating news, Oklahoma got out to a huge lead and held off West Virginia, indicating that the Sooners are probably going to run the table in the Big 12 and cause a lot of consternation in the Playoff debate in two weeks (although Oklahoma State will have something to say about that). Are we really going to do this again? The Sooners lost twice in September. They should be out. And yet I have a sinking feeling they might sneak in to the final four.
The Pac-12 picture will finally become clear this week, as Utah's home loss to Oregon simplified matters. The Utes can only play spoiler at Colorado, with a Buffaloes loss sending USC to the title game. The Apple Cup will decide the North, with a potential Washington State - Colorado rematch looming.
The MACtion gets us started with a bang Tuesday night, as both Ohio and Miami (OH) play at 4 p.m. Pacific with the East on the line. If the Bobcats beat Akron, Ohio takes the division. An Ohio loss coupled with a Miami (OH) win over Ball State would hand the Redhawks the title. Both contenders are at home. Let the mid-major lunacy begin!
Thanksgiving Day brings an unholy new-age division rivalry with LSU visiting Texas A&M. Remember when this day was reserved for the Lone Star Showdown between A&M and Texas? Conference realignment has had some frustrating consequences.
That being said, it is rivalry week, despite the fragmentation to some classic series that border on crimes against the sport. North Carolina - North Carolina State is the Friday wake-up call, followed by that all-important Apple Cup at 12:30 p.m. At 2 p.m. there's an awesome MAC showdown between Toledo and undefeated Western Michigan that will decide the West crown, and finally the glorious hatred of Arizona State - Arizona in the Territorial Cup at 6 p.m.
Saturday is the treasure trove. At 9 a.m.: Georgia Tech at Georgia, Kentucky at Louisville, Kansas -Kansas State, and third-ranked Michigan at second-ranked Ohio State. But that's far from all of it. We also get Purdue - Indiana, Illinois - Northwestern, Central Florida at South Florida, Virginia at Virginia Tech, and Syracuse at Pittsburgh, all to start us off in the morning!
The midday slate brings more goodies: The Egg Bowl (Mississippi State - Ole Miss) and the Iron Bowl (Auburn - Alabama), Notre Dame at USC, Michigan State at Penn State, Minnesota at Wisconsin, Nevada at UNLV, and North Texas at UTEP. Nebraska at Iowa, while not a rivalry, could also have huge Big Ten West implications.
As we approach prime time, the Rumble in the Rockies pits Utah against Colorado, while South Carolina meets Clemson, Tennessee travels to Vanderbilt, and Florida and Florida State square off in Tallahassee. It's an utterly delightful day jam-packed with the best the wonky 2016 season has to offer.
Playoff Poll
In keeping with last week's rankings, I will again designate a special tier for the nation's best team.
God-King Tier
Alabama
Simply the best team in the country in every way.
First Tier
Ohio State
Clemson
Washington
J.T. Barrett has had some struggles this year, but I still feel far better about OSU's quarterback situation than Michigan's. John O'Korn and Wilton Speight are mediocre-at-best passers, and the Buckeyes should be able to exploit that. Now, if OSU doesn't win the division (which is likely), things will get interesting. Clemson wrapped up the Atlantic with ease and should win the ACC Championship, while Washington - despite some damaging injuries - is still the Pac-12 favorite.
Second Tier
Michigan
Wisconsin
The good news for the Wolverines is their path to the Playoff is far simpler; winning out would add a Power Five title to their name, with a final four spot imminent. The bad news is that Ohio State will probably win this week. Wisconsin's two close losses (to OSU and UM) are now essentially viewed as honorable battle wounds, and the Badgers would likely make the Playoff with a division and then conference championship.
Third Tier
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Penn State
Western Michigan
This tier represents the long-shots, in descending order of likelihood to make the Playoff. The Sooners are the biggest name and have the best chance, with a potential nine-game winning streak and undefeated Big 12 resume to their name. Oklahoma State is in an odd situation given that official-aided loss to Central Michigan, but with an upset in the Bedlam Game the Cowboys would have a very strong case for inclusion.
Colorado could finish 11-2 with a conference title and two competitive losses (to Michigan and USC), but I still think the chances are pretty slim. It'll be hard for the committee to not use CU's recent history (of being terrible) against the Buffs. At Penn State, the Nittany Lions could actually win the Big Ten crown (unlikely though that may be), but the team also has the worst loss of any potential Playoff squad with that 49-10 stomping at the hands of Michigan. It's hard to see the committee taking PSU. And of course, there's Western Michigan: unappreciated, undervalued, underrated.
Pac-12 Report
Well, it came too late to save the season - or possibly Mark Helfrich's job - but Oregon got the title-race-changing upset of the season by knocking Utah out of South contention. I'm not shocked the Utes lost, as the team had been performing unevenly all year, but it is a surprise to see it come at the hands of the Ducks, who have been so very bad in 2016.
No matter. With Colorado's strong finish against Washington State (along with Washington and USC's wins), we have a simplified path to the championship game. Washington or WSU will win the North on Friday in the Apple Cup. If Colorado beats Utah, the Buffaloes win the South; if the Utes win, USC will play the North champ.
But first, the other games. I adore the Arizona - Arizona State rivalry, which supplanted Oregon - Washington several years ago as the nastiest in the Pac-12. Arizona needs a win at home to prevent a winless conference season, while ASU, despite being the better team, has been racked with injuries. I'm going with the Sun Devils in Tucson, because ASU can still score, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats make it a game or even win.
Notre Dame - USC is our national intersectional rivalry, and this year it's pretty easy to pick. The Fighting Irish have been a mess all season, while SC has come on very strong and looks to end the 2016 campaign with eight straight wins. The Trojans should win without issue.
The other, far more ridiculous, non-league game being played is Stanford hosting Rice. I'm not sure why the Cardinal have started this tradition in recent years of playing teams that aren't Cal in rivalry week, but here's another example. Rice is awful and Stanford will win easily. Why is this game being played in November and not September?
Oregon and Oregon State meet in Corvallis this year for the Civil War sporting identical 2-6 conference records. The Ducks are unquestionably the more talented team, but up until last week I would have picked the Beavers in a heartbeat. UO has simply looked like a team going through the motions to play out the end of the season - until the upset of Utah. Now I'm more inclined to favor the Ducks... but I still can't do it. OSU has waited years for an opportunity to get revenge in this rivalry, and Oregon has been far too erratic to trust. It's a toss-up, but I lean Oregon State.
UCLA is at Cal for a quasi-rivalry game to end the year, with both sitting at 4-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference. I thought both teams put up a nice fight last week against superior rival squads (USC and Stanford, respectively). The Bruins have the luxury of going up against the nation's second-worst defense in this contest, but they'll be doing it with a backup QB in Mike Fafaul whose play has been unpredictable. Cal has a more talented offense but there's no denying the role the Bears' defense has played in their current four-game losing streak. It's another toss-up; I favor Cal in a loss that will get Jim Mora fired at UCLA.
Finally, there's the two games that will decide the teams in the conference championship. The Apple Cup hasn't had these kind of stakes in years, unless you count the infamous 2008 game between 0-11 Washington and 1-11 WSU (The Cougars won 16-13 in double overtime). The rivals enter this contest under very different circumstances: both sit at 7-1 in Pac-12 play, with only Wazzu's two head-scratching losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State to start the season preventing this from being a top-10 showdown. With all due respect to Colorado, the Washington schools are probably the two best teams in the conference.
The Huskies looked nigh-untouchable in the league until two weeks ago, winning every game but one by double digits. Then came the nightmare against USC and the injuries to the defense. This week, former starting defensive back Darren Gardenhire curiously announced his departure from the program. I had Washington State upsetting UW before the season began, but started leaning more and more toward Washington as the year progressed. Now, the picture is much less clear. Luke Falk and the WSU offense are really good, even with the loss of star receiver River Cracraft. The Cougs have even showed an increased ability to run the ball this year. There's real doubt as to whether Washington's front, so good for most of the year, can get consistent pressure AND cover Wazzu's skill players.
That question would be less important if the Huskies' offense was still humming, but UW stalled out against USC and was sloppy early last week versus ASU. Jake Browning has thrown two picks in each of the past two games after just three in the previous nine contests. For Washington to win, he has to rebound, and the Huskies have to be able to get some stops defensively so this game doesn't turn into a shootout. That's where Mike Leach thrives, and you'd better believe the WSU coach will have his guys ready after a hard-fought loss to Colorado. However, Chris Petersen is an excellent coach as well, and I ultimately trust him to find a way to get this one last win. With much hesitation, I give UW the slightest of edges over Wazzu.
The Utah - Colorado matchup seems more clear-cut. While Utah is undoubtedly a talented team, the Utes have been playing with fire for a while. Close wins over Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA - all teams in the bottom half of the conference - demonstrated what kind of squad this really is, with losses to Cal and Oregon (other bad teams!) to really drive the point home. Utah managed just 23 and 28 points against the Bears and Ducks, respectively, despite those opposing defenses ranking 127th and 126th in the country. To put it simply, Utah is a mediocre offensive team.
Colorado, meanwhile, is a very good defensive team, leading the Pac-12 and ranking 14th in the nation. The Buffaloes are better on both sides of the ball than the Utes, playing at home, with a chance to win the Pac-12 championship. There's precedent for an upset here - Colorado beat Utah on the road in the final week of the 2011 season to keep the Utes from a South title - but that was the first year of the expanded conference in a very different Pac-12. CU should win Saturday to advance to the title game.
Heisman Watch
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
This race has gotten really strange. Texas lost to Kansas for the first time in 78 years, but it certainly wasn't because of Foreman, who bulldozed for 250 yards and two scores on a superhuman 51 carries. He's the nation's leading rusher in both yards and yards per game... and oh yeah, he's done it despite playing in just 10 games.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
The precocious Hurts is quietly going to pass for more than 2,000 yards while rushing for more than 1,000, and his completion percentage is significantly better than Lamar Jackson's despite playing in an offense that places far less emphasis on bubble screens and pitch passes. He represents the terrifying potential of an extended Alabama dynasty.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson is probably still going to win the award, but he really shouldn't. I can't recall a Heisman winner who has ever had a game as bad as Jackson did against Houston, when he completed just 20 of 43 passes, was sacked 11 times, fumbled of his own volition in the red zone to kill a scoring drive and took one of the worst safeties in recent memory in a 26-point rout. It wasn't all on him, but how can a guy have a game like that and win the Heisman?
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
27 passing touchdowns, six rushing scores, one interception, one fumble, third in the nation in pasing efficiency, just 12 sacks taken. No, the competition hasn't been as tough, but WMU has beaten two Big Ten teams, and a victory over 9-2 Toledo this Friday would absolutely qualify as a quality win. Send this guy to the ceremony. He deserves it, far more than J.T. Barrett or Baker Mayfield.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
A recent penchant for throwing interceptions aside, Browning has had a marvelous year. He's already set the UW single-season passing TD record with at least two games to play (and with as many as four remaining, he could set the bar so high it might never be topped). Despite the picks the last two weeks, he's still fourth in the country in passing efficiency. 2016 might not be his year, but he's going to be a favorite next season.
Random Thoughts and Observations
I've defended Charlie Strong on multiple occasions, but this past week sealed his fate at Texas, and not without reason. The situation he inherited at Texas wasn't ideal, and obviously there's a ton of pressure to succeed in Austin. Anyone who denies the role race played in the opposition to Strong has his or her head in the sand. It's not as if the man is a fraud; Strong has proven to be a good coach in the past, and will probably do so again in a slightly more comfortable scenario.
But the simple fact of the matter is there's no place at Texas for a head coach who loses to Kansas. This wasn't even one of the few good Jayhawks squads of the last decade. It was one of the worst teams in the country, and the loss 24-21 overtime loss came after UT took a 21-10 lead in the fourth quarter. Kansas hadn't beaten UT since 1938. Strong knows he's gone, and unfortunately, it's his own doing. He just didn't improve the team fast enough.
2016 Stanzi Awards
It was the quietest week of the season for the Stanzis, with just two weekly awards. We had no Double Stanzis for the first time in quite a while, and neither of this week's winners had won previously.
Week 12 Awards
John Urzua, Middle Tennessee
Opponent: Charlotte
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech
Opponent: Notre Dame
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
49 players: tied with 1
There's still time to catch up, but Deshaun Watson's lead is pretty daunting at this point. Rivalry week should produce some real craziness, so we'll see what the picture looks like when the dust clears.
Well, scratch Louisville. My thoughts at the end of last week's blog turned out to be surprisingly prescient, as the Cardinals went down in embarrassing fashion at Houston on Thursday night. All of Louisville's weaknesses - lack of elite talent, an unsophisticated offense, and a schedule loaded with cream puffs - came back to haunt Lamar Jackson and Company when the Cards went up against an opponent with equal (or probably greater) talent across the board.
But a landscape-shifting upset this was not; as I said last week, Louisville was already extremely unlikely to make the Playoff. Clemson took care of business by trouncing Wake Forest on Saturday, ensuring the Tigers will play in the ACC Championship. Without that feather in the otherwise unremarkable cap that is Louisville's resume, the Cardinals would have been hard-pressed to provide convincing evidence to the Playoff committee for their inclusion. The loss to Houston merely confirms the inevitable.
Alabama did what Bama does every year against its annual FCS foe: barely show up. The Crimson Tide have a habit of sleepwalking through their November Iron Bowl tune-up, and this year was no exception. What, then, were Michigan and Ohio State's excuses this week? The rivals needed second-half stands to hold off bad conference opponents, teams they had to beat to ensure this week's clash would mean something. Yet more evidence that neither is ready to face Bama.
In forehead-slappingly irritating news, Oklahoma got out to a huge lead and held off West Virginia, indicating that the Sooners are probably going to run the table in the Big 12 and cause a lot of consternation in the Playoff debate in two weeks (although Oklahoma State will have something to say about that). Are we really going to do this again? The Sooners lost twice in September. They should be out. And yet I have a sinking feeling they might sneak in to the final four.
The Pac-12 picture will finally become clear this week, as Utah's home loss to Oregon simplified matters. The Utes can only play spoiler at Colorado, with a Buffaloes loss sending USC to the title game. The Apple Cup will decide the North, with a potential Washington State - Colorado rematch looming.
The MACtion gets us started with a bang Tuesday night, as both Ohio and Miami (OH) play at 4 p.m. Pacific with the East on the line. If the Bobcats beat Akron, Ohio takes the division. An Ohio loss coupled with a Miami (OH) win over Ball State would hand the Redhawks the title. Both contenders are at home. Let the mid-major lunacy begin!
Thanksgiving Day brings an unholy new-age division rivalry with LSU visiting Texas A&M. Remember when this day was reserved for the Lone Star Showdown between A&M and Texas? Conference realignment has had some frustrating consequences.
That being said, it is rivalry week, despite the fragmentation to some classic series that border on crimes against the sport. North Carolina - North Carolina State is the Friday wake-up call, followed by that all-important Apple Cup at 12:30 p.m. At 2 p.m. there's an awesome MAC showdown between Toledo and undefeated Western Michigan that will decide the West crown, and finally the glorious hatred of Arizona State - Arizona in the Territorial Cup at 6 p.m.
Saturday is the treasure trove. At 9 a.m.: Georgia Tech at Georgia, Kentucky at Louisville, Kansas -Kansas State, and third-ranked Michigan at second-ranked Ohio State. But that's far from all of it. We also get Purdue - Indiana, Illinois - Northwestern, Central Florida at South Florida, Virginia at Virginia Tech, and Syracuse at Pittsburgh, all to start us off in the morning!
The midday slate brings more goodies: The Egg Bowl (Mississippi State - Ole Miss) and the Iron Bowl (Auburn - Alabama), Notre Dame at USC, Michigan State at Penn State, Minnesota at Wisconsin, Nevada at UNLV, and North Texas at UTEP. Nebraska at Iowa, while not a rivalry, could also have huge Big Ten West implications.
As we approach prime time, the Rumble in the Rockies pits Utah against Colorado, while South Carolina meets Clemson, Tennessee travels to Vanderbilt, and Florida and Florida State square off in Tallahassee. It's an utterly delightful day jam-packed with the best the wonky 2016 season has to offer.
Playoff Poll
In keeping with last week's rankings, I will again designate a special tier for the nation's best team.
God-King Tier
Alabama
Simply the best team in the country in every way.
First Tier
Ohio State
Clemson
Washington
J.T. Barrett has had some struggles this year, but I still feel far better about OSU's quarterback situation than Michigan's. John O'Korn and Wilton Speight are mediocre-at-best passers, and the Buckeyes should be able to exploit that. Now, if OSU doesn't win the division (which is likely), things will get interesting. Clemson wrapped up the Atlantic with ease and should win the ACC Championship, while Washington - despite some damaging injuries - is still the Pac-12 favorite.
Second Tier
Michigan
Wisconsin
The good news for the Wolverines is their path to the Playoff is far simpler; winning out would add a Power Five title to their name, with a final four spot imminent. The bad news is that Ohio State will probably win this week. Wisconsin's two close losses (to OSU and UM) are now essentially viewed as honorable battle wounds, and the Badgers would likely make the Playoff with a division and then conference championship.
Third Tier
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Penn State
Western Michigan
This tier represents the long-shots, in descending order of likelihood to make the Playoff. The Sooners are the biggest name and have the best chance, with a potential nine-game winning streak and undefeated Big 12 resume to their name. Oklahoma State is in an odd situation given that official-aided loss to Central Michigan, but with an upset in the Bedlam Game the Cowboys would have a very strong case for inclusion.
Colorado could finish 11-2 with a conference title and two competitive losses (to Michigan and USC), but I still think the chances are pretty slim. It'll be hard for the committee to not use CU's recent history (of being terrible) against the Buffs. At Penn State, the Nittany Lions could actually win the Big Ten crown (unlikely though that may be), but the team also has the worst loss of any potential Playoff squad with that 49-10 stomping at the hands of Michigan. It's hard to see the committee taking PSU. And of course, there's Western Michigan: unappreciated, undervalued, underrated.
Pac-12 Report
Well, it came too late to save the season - or possibly Mark Helfrich's job - but Oregon got the title-race-changing upset of the season by knocking Utah out of South contention. I'm not shocked the Utes lost, as the team had been performing unevenly all year, but it is a surprise to see it come at the hands of the Ducks, who have been so very bad in 2016.
No matter. With Colorado's strong finish against Washington State (along with Washington and USC's wins), we have a simplified path to the championship game. Washington or WSU will win the North on Friday in the Apple Cup. If Colorado beats Utah, the Buffaloes win the South; if the Utes win, USC will play the North champ.
But first, the other games. I adore the Arizona - Arizona State rivalry, which supplanted Oregon - Washington several years ago as the nastiest in the Pac-12. Arizona needs a win at home to prevent a winless conference season, while ASU, despite being the better team, has been racked with injuries. I'm going with the Sun Devils in Tucson, because ASU can still score, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats make it a game or even win.
Notre Dame - USC is our national intersectional rivalry, and this year it's pretty easy to pick. The Fighting Irish have been a mess all season, while SC has come on very strong and looks to end the 2016 campaign with eight straight wins. The Trojans should win without issue.
The other, far more ridiculous, non-league game being played is Stanford hosting Rice. I'm not sure why the Cardinal have started this tradition in recent years of playing teams that aren't Cal in rivalry week, but here's another example. Rice is awful and Stanford will win easily. Why is this game being played in November and not September?
Oregon and Oregon State meet in Corvallis this year for the Civil War sporting identical 2-6 conference records. The Ducks are unquestionably the more talented team, but up until last week I would have picked the Beavers in a heartbeat. UO has simply looked like a team going through the motions to play out the end of the season - until the upset of Utah. Now I'm more inclined to favor the Ducks... but I still can't do it. OSU has waited years for an opportunity to get revenge in this rivalry, and Oregon has been far too erratic to trust. It's a toss-up, but I lean Oregon State.
UCLA is at Cal for a quasi-rivalry game to end the year, with both sitting at 4-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference. I thought both teams put up a nice fight last week against superior rival squads (USC and Stanford, respectively). The Bruins have the luxury of going up against the nation's second-worst defense in this contest, but they'll be doing it with a backup QB in Mike Fafaul whose play has been unpredictable. Cal has a more talented offense but there's no denying the role the Bears' defense has played in their current four-game losing streak. It's another toss-up; I favor Cal in a loss that will get Jim Mora fired at UCLA.
Finally, there's the two games that will decide the teams in the conference championship. The Apple Cup hasn't had these kind of stakes in years, unless you count the infamous 2008 game between 0-11 Washington and 1-11 WSU (The Cougars won 16-13 in double overtime). The rivals enter this contest under very different circumstances: both sit at 7-1 in Pac-12 play, with only Wazzu's two head-scratching losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State to start the season preventing this from being a top-10 showdown. With all due respect to Colorado, the Washington schools are probably the two best teams in the conference.
The Huskies looked nigh-untouchable in the league until two weeks ago, winning every game but one by double digits. Then came the nightmare against USC and the injuries to the defense. This week, former starting defensive back Darren Gardenhire curiously announced his departure from the program. I had Washington State upsetting UW before the season began, but started leaning more and more toward Washington as the year progressed. Now, the picture is much less clear. Luke Falk and the WSU offense are really good, even with the loss of star receiver River Cracraft. The Cougs have even showed an increased ability to run the ball this year. There's real doubt as to whether Washington's front, so good for most of the year, can get consistent pressure AND cover Wazzu's skill players.
That question would be less important if the Huskies' offense was still humming, but UW stalled out against USC and was sloppy early last week versus ASU. Jake Browning has thrown two picks in each of the past two games after just three in the previous nine contests. For Washington to win, he has to rebound, and the Huskies have to be able to get some stops defensively so this game doesn't turn into a shootout. That's where Mike Leach thrives, and you'd better believe the WSU coach will have his guys ready after a hard-fought loss to Colorado. However, Chris Petersen is an excellent coach as well, and I ultimately trust him to find a way to get this one last win. With much hesitation, I give UW the slightest of edges over Wazzu.
The Utah - Colorado matchup seems more clear-cut. While Utah is undoubtedly a talented team, the Utes have been playing with fire for a while. Close wins over Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA - all teams in the bottom half of the conference - demonstrated what kind of squad this really is, with losses to Cal and Oregon (other bad teams!) to really drive the point home. Utah managed just 23 and 28 points against the Bears and Ducks, respectively, despite those opposing defenses ranking 127th and 126th in the country. To put it simply, Utah is a mediocre offensive team.
Colorado, meanwhile, is a very good defensive team, leading the Pac-12 and ranking 14th in the nation. The Buffaloes are better on both sides of the ball than the Utes, playing at home, with a chance to win the Pac-12 championship. There's precedent for an upset here - Colorado beat Utah on the road in the final week of the 2011 season to keep the Utes from a South title - but that was the first year of the expanded conference in a very different Pac-12. CU should win Saturday to advance to the title game.
Heisman Watch
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
This race has gotten really strange. Texas lost to Kansas for the first time in 78 years, but it certainly wasn't because of Foreman, who bulldozed for 250 yards and two scores on a superhuman 51 carries. He's the nation's leading rusher in both yards and yards per game... and oh yeah, he's done it despite playing in just 10 games.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
The precocious Hurts is quietly going to pass for more than 2,000 yards while rushing for more than 1,000, and his completion percentage is significantly better than Lamar Jackson's despite playing in an offense that places far less emphasis on bubble screens and pitch passes. He represents the terrifying potential of an extended Alabama dynasty.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson is probably still going to win the award, but he really shouldn't. I can't recall a Heisman winner who has ever had a game as bad as Jackson did against Houston, when he completed just 20 of 43 passes, was sacked 11 times, fumbled of his own volition in the red zone to kill a scoring drive and took one of the worst safeties in recent memory in a 26-point rout. It wasn't all on him, but how can a guy have a game like that and win the Heisman?
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
27 passing touchdowns, six rushing scores, one interception, one fumble, third in the nation in pasing efficiency, just 12 sacks taken. No, the competition hasn't been as tough, but WMU has beaten two Big Ten teams, and a victory over 9-2 Toledo this Friday would absolutely qualify as a quality win. Send this guy to the ceremony. He deserves it, far more than J.T. Barrett or Baker Mayfield.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
A recent penchant for throwing interceptions aside, Browning has had a marvelous year. He's already set the UW single-season passing TD record with at least two games to play (and with as many as four remaining, he could set the bar so high it might never be topped). Despite the picks the last two weeks, he's still fourth in the country in passing efficiency. 2016 might not be his year, but he's going to be a favorite next season.
Random Thoughts and Observations
I've defended Charlie Strong on multiple occasions, but this past week sealed his fate at Texas, and not without reason. The situation he inherited at Texas wasn't ideal, and obviously there's a ton of pressure to succeed in Austin. Anyone who denies the role race played in the opposition to Strong has his or her head in the sand. It's not as if the man is a fraud; Strong has proven to be a good coach in the past, and will probably do so again in a slightly more comfortable scenario.
But the simple fact of the matter is there's no place at Texas for a head coach who loses to Kansas. This wasn't even one of the few good Jayhawks squads of the last decade. It was one of the worst teams in the country, and the loss 24-21 overtime loss came after UT took a 21-10 lead in the fourth quarter. Kansas hadn't beaten UT since 1938. Strong knows he's gone, and unfortunately, it's his own doing. He just didn't improve the team fast enough.
2016 Stanzi Awards
It was the quietest week of the season for the Stanzis, with just two weekly awards. We had no Double Stanzis for the first time in quite a while, and neither of this week's winners had won previously.
Week 12 Awards
John Urzua, Middle Tennessee
Opponent: Charlotte
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech
Opponent: Notre Dame
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
49 players: tied with 1
There's still time to catch up, but Deshaun Watson's lead is pretty daunting at this point. Rivalry week should produce some real craziness, so we'll see what the picture looks like when the dust clears.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Chaos Reigns
National Overview
It's been a long time since college football has seen a day as crazy as last Saturday. Five top-10 teams went down, including teams two through four in the Playoff rankings, and sixth-ranked Louisville and 10th-ranked Penn State nearly joined them. Some of the losses (hello, Clemson) weren't shocking, given how up-and-down the Tigers have been. Others, like Auburn's ugly loss at Georgia, were more head-scratching.
The rankings said Iowa over Michigan was a massive upset, but I wasn't particularly blow away by that result. As I've noted several times this season, the Wolverines have played a weak schedule, opening with five consecutive home games (and playing eight overall. Boo.) UM also got lucky when Colorado's upset bid was foiled by an injury to starting quarterback Sefo Liufao, and the team played Penn State well before the Nittany Lions resembled anything like a good football team. Spanning from their contest against Wisconsin all the way to Ohio State, the Wolverines will go almost two full months between ranked opponents.
That's all evidence that this is more or less who Michigan is: a very good team, but one that got fat on a soft schedule, and never one that could have reasonably challenged Alabama. It's fitting that the Wolverines finally lost on the same day as Clemson, another highly talented group that clearly never completely gelled this season. The Tigers played with fire from the opener at Auburn, but it took 10 games for Deshaun Watson to do enough to cost his team a game.
Of course, the amusing footnote to all this was that neither loss matters in the long run; win out, and both Michigan and Clemson are conference champions and in the Playoff. The road is a lot nastier for UM, but the ability to control one's own destiny is all that can be asked for in this sport. Washington is in a similar position, but the Huskies actually fell to a good team. I'll cover them in the Pac-12 section.
We start Week 12 with the usual early-week MAC absurdities, but also get a jewel of a Thursday-nighter when Louisville visits Houston. This game once loomed as a delightful showdown between top-five teams, but sadly, the Cougars weren't able to keep their end of the bargain. They're still dangerous, though, and the Cardinals would do well not to underestimate them.
Saturday kicks off with Oklahoma State's final tuneup before the Bedlam Game when the Cowboys visit TCU. The Horned Frogs have been hard to pin down this year but are looking for bowl eligibility, while OSU is praying for a glimmer of hope from the Playoff committee. That contest is followed at 10 a.m. by the rescheduled Florida - LSU matchup, a game that could have big implications in the rankings for Wisconsin, which knocked off the Tigers to start the season.
The midday slate has one of the big showdowns of the day, as Washington State heads to Boulder for a huge Pac-12 game with Colorado. The Cougars don't need this game at all. Already eliminated from the Playoff with a loss to an FCS team, their best hope is to be conference champs, and the Apple Cup with Washington will decide who wins the North, regardless of this result. But CU has to have this one, needing to win out to avoid a multiple-team tie that might send USC or Utah to the league title game.
We also get a fun Mountain West tilt at 12:30 when West division leader San Diego State takes on co-Mountain division leader Wyoming in Laramie. The Aztecs have ruled the conference with an iron fist for the past two seasons, but the Cowboys have already taken down one MWC heavyweight (Boise State) at home this year. Another upset could send Wyoming on a path to win double-digit games for the first time in 20 years.
Primetime brings the week's biggest event, with Big 12 leader Oklahoma facing off against second-place West Virginia in Morgantown. The Mountaineers seem to have finally found their footing in the their new conference, but it would be a whole different story if WVU could knock off the Sooners (who are still, somehow, hanging around the Playoff conversation).
Playoff Poll
If last week didn't convince voters Alabama is without peers this season, nothing will. On a weekend when five top-10 teams lost and two more had a scare, the Crimson Tide beat Mississippi State - the team that just upset Texas A&M - by 48 points.
God-King Tier
Alabama
I, for one, welcome our Crimson Tide overlords.
First Tier
Michigan
Clemson
Washington
What? All three of these teams just lost. In a strange quirk of the new Playoff system, all three will still join Bama in the final four by winning out. Who knew replacing the BCS would be this complicated?
Second Tier
Ohio State
Louisville
If there's a team that can make the Playoff without a conference championship, it's Ohio State. The Buckeyes would miss the Big Ten title game if Penn State wins out, but clearly have the love of the committee. Louisville's hopes amount to a longer shot, but the Cardinals did receive a great stroke of fortune with all the upsets this weekend.
Third Tier
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Western Michigan
The Badgers will win the West by beating Purdue and Minnesota, so an improbable two-loss Big Ten champion scenario isn't out of the question. The damned Sooners, inexplicable voter favorites that they are, could garner a repeat backdoor spot in the Playoff with a strong finish. Western Michigan, ever the faithful adherent to a system stacked against it, has only a minimal chance.
Pac-12 Report
Don't be fooled by Utah's 49-26 victory over Arizona State. This was a back-and-forth contest that saw the Utes leading 28-26 early in the fourth quarter. ASU isn't good, and Utah isn't a top-15 team. Neither is Stanford, although the Cardinal at least had the grace to drop out of the polls for a few weeks before clobbering hapless Oregon on Saturday.
Colorado and Washington State got comfortable wins over Arizona and Cal, respectively, while Oregon State fought hard but couldn't overcome its own miscues at UCLA. None of those results was surprising. USC over Washington, on the other hand, was harder to see coming.
I shouldn't be surprised, given how much temperance I've urged on Washington's behalf. I thought the Huskies were a very good team getting an artificial boost from a watered-down league, and this game confirmed that. However, I've also been skeptical for years about USC's talent-to-results ratio, given how often the Trojans have been the preseason favorite and failed to deliver. In this game, SC finally showed up on the big stage.
Sam Darnold had been good since taking over the QB job, but nothing he'd done prior to the UW game screamed breakout. Indeed, he was shaky early, throwing an interception to kill a promising opening drive. From that point on, though, he was quite good, delivering time and time again as Washington's defense struggled to rush the passer and stop drives after the crushing loss of linebacker Azeem Victor. Perhaps the Trojans are ready at last to jettison their mantle of mediocrity.
There are still games to be played, however, and as well as USC has played over the past month, its fate is out of its own control. The Trojans will almost certainly wrap up a 7-2 conference record against rival UCLA this week (before facing Notre Dame in their finale), yet it's ultimately up to Colorado and Utah to sort out the South.
We'll get an indication of how that will play out Saturday. Utah should beat Oregon, bringing the Utes' conference record to 6-2; another win the following week against Colorado would clinch the division. The Buffaloes must win out to take the South, as a tie with USC would hand the South to the Trojans. It's a tall order to beat Wazzu and Utah back-to-back, even with both games at home.
Further complicating the equation is the situation in the North. Washington should easily handle Arizona State to get to 7-1 in league play, but WSU - the Pac-12's last unbeaten team at 7-0 - can afford to lose in Boulder before returning to the friendly confines of Pullman to take on Washington in a winner-takes-all Apple Cup. (In other, less meaningful conference action, Stanford meets Cal for the Big Game in Berkeley, while Arizona and Oregon State face off in Corvallis.)
The North's resolution is simple: as long as Washington beats ASU, the Apple Cup decides the division. In the South, assuming USC and Utah both win this week, things still hinge on the two Colorado contests. Colorado takes the division with two more wins; Utah also clinches with two more wins, while USC has to hope for a Colorado loss to WSU this week followed by a Buffs' win against Utah.
Heisman Watch
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson has to be considered the runaway favorite at this point despite his merely average passing efficiency. Too many other contenders have stumbled (or lost games) to overcome his massive edge in stats.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
Don't count Hurts out. In case anyone thought Bama couldn't pass, Hurts put on a show with nearly 350 yards and four touchdowns in a 51-3 annihilation of Mississippi State. The kid is good.
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
Foreman's 167 yards against West Virginia actually lowered his nation-best average to 179 yards per game, but never fear: Saturday brings the gloriously awful Kansas defense squarely into his sights. This should be fun.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Browning wasn't the main reason the Huskies lost to USC (pin that on the O-line and defense), but he certainly didn't help his case with by far his worst game of the season. Winning out should still put him in New York, but his chance at actually snagging the trophy might be gone.
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
I love Terrell's steadiness and efficiency, as he's scored 28 times this season and turned the ball over just twice (one fumble, one pick). He's sharp in the pocket and deceptively nimble, and as long as WMU stays undefeated, he's got to be here.
Random Thoughts and Observations
It's getting tougher to ignore the elephant in the room that is Louisville. The Cardinals have very little hope of winning a (bad) major conference, normally a death blow to an aspiring National Championship contender. However, the Cardinals have been the beneficiaries of an archaic, poll-era quirk that has the potential to cause a lost of consternation among fans: they lost early. Louisville reaped the huge benefit of blowing out Florida State in September, way back when the Seminoles were considered an elite team (whoops). That "quality win" has been boosting the team for almost two months, even after FSU has been fully revealed as a fraud.
Voters in the polls don't know what to do about this. The teams ahead of Louisville keep losing, so traditional logic says the Cardinals have to move up, all the way to number three this week. But my poll - and the Playoff Committee - don't work that way (and I think we're on the same page). Barring a stunning loss to Wake Forest this week, Clemson will win the ACC Atlantic division. That's going to leave the Cardinals out in the cold, even at 11-1, because the wins just aren't there. Look at the teams Louisville has beaten this year. Charlotte. Syracuse. Marshall. Duke. North Carolina State. Virginia. Boston College. Other than FSU, the team's best win was last week, when it beat 6-4 Wake Forest. Louisville didn't just play an ACC schedule, it played a bad ACC schedule against the dregs of the conference. The Cardinals missed the top five teams from the Coastal, drawing bottom-feeders Duke and Virginia. That's what's ultimately going to kill this team in the eyes of the Committee.
2016 Stanzi Awards
It was a quiet week for the Stanzis, although three of the four winners came by their awards in Double Stanzi games. This time it was USC's Sam Darnold who broke through to the finalists, no small feat when you consider he's only been starting for seven games. Well done, Sam! Here are this week's winners
Week 11 Awards
Trace McSorley, Penn State
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, won by 15
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Sam Darnold, USC
Opponent: Washington
Performance: Two INT, won by 13
Jake Browning, Washington
Opponent: USC
Performance: Two INT, lost by 13
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Skyler Howard, West Virginia
Opponent: Texas
Performance: Three INT, won by three
Shane Buechele, Texas
Opponent: West Virginia
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by three
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Austin Appleby, Florida
Opponent: South Carolina
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 13
Jake Bentley, South Carolina
Opponent: Florida
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by 13
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
47 players: tied with 1
At this point, I'm not sure anyone will be able to catch Watson. The Clemson signal-caller already leads the pack with three weekly awards, but he also holds the tiebreaker in the form of his performance this week, when he tossed another three picks - including a back-breaker when the Tigers should have had the game in hand - to lose to Pitt. It'll fun to see if anyone can top that going forward.
It's been a long time since college football has seen a day as crazy as last Saturday. Five top-10 teams went down, including teams two through four in the Playoff rankings, and sixth-ranked Louisville and 10th-ranked Penn State nearly joined them. Some of the losses (hello, Clemson) weren't shocking, given how up-and-down the Tigers have been. Others, like Auburn's ugly loss at Georgia, were more head-scratching.
The rankings said Iowa over Michigan was a massive upset, but I wasn't particularly blow away by that result. As I've noted several times this season, the Wolverines have played a weak schedule, opening with five consecutive home games (and playing eight overall. Boo.) UM also got lucky when Colorado's upset bid was foiled by an injury to starting quarterback Sefo Liufao, and the team played Penn State well before the Nittany Lions resembled anything like a good football team. Spanning from their contest against Wisconsin all the way to Ohio State, the Wolverines will go almost two full months between ranked opponents.
That's all evidence that this is more or less who Michigan is: a very good team, but one that got fat on a soft schedule, and never one that could have reasonably challenged Alabama. It's fitting that the Wolverines finally lost on the same day as Clemson, another highly talented group that clearly never completely gelled this season. The Tigers played with fire from the opener at Auburn, but it took 10 games for Deshaun Watson to do enough to cost his team a game.
Of course, the amusing footnote to all this was that neither loss matters in the long run; win out, and both Michigan and Clemson are conference champions and in the Playoff. The road is a lot nastier for UM, but the ability to control one's own destiny is all that can be asked for in this sport. Washington is in a similar position, but the Huskies actually fell to a good team. I'll cover them in the Pac-12 section.
We start Week 12 with the usual early-week MAC absurdities, but also get a jewel of a Thursday-nighter when Louisville visits Houston. This game once loomed as a delightful showdown between top-five teams, but sadly, the Cougars weren't able to keep their end of the bargain. They're still dangerous, though, and the Cardinals would do well not to underestimate them.
Saturday kicks off with Oklahoma State's final tuneup before the Bedlam Game when the Cowboys visit TCU. The Horned Frogs have been hard to pin down this year but are looking for bowl eligibility, while OSU is praying for a glimmer of hope from the Playoff committee. That contest is followed at 10 a.m. by the rescheduled Florida - LSU matchup, a game that could have big implications in the rankings for Wisconsin, which knocked off the Tigers to start the season.
The midday slate has one of the big showdowns of the day, as Washington State heads to Boulder for a huge Pac-12 game with Colorado. The Cougars don't need this game at all. Already eliminated from the Playoff with a loss to an FCS team, their best hope is to be conference champs, and the Apple Cup with Washington will decide who wins the North, regardless of this result. But CU has to have this one, needing to win out to avoid a multiple-team tie that might send USC or Utah to the league title game.
We also get a fun Mountain West tilt at 12:30 when West division leader San Diego State takes on co-Mountain division leader Wyoming in Laramie. The Aztecs have ruled the conference with an iron fist for the past two seasons, but the Cowboys have already taken down one MWC heavyweight (Boise State) at home this year. Another upset could send Wyoming on a path to win double-digit games for the first time in 20 years.
Primetime brings the week's biggest event, with Big 12 leader Oklahoma facing off against second-place West Virginia in Morgantown. The Mountaineers seem to have finally found their footing in the their new conference, but it would be a whole different story if WVU could knock off the Sooners (who are still, somehow, hanging around the Playoff conversation).
Playoff Poll
If last week didn't convince voters Alabama is without peers this season, nothing will. On a weekend when five top-10 teams lost and two more had a scare, the Crimson Tide beat Mississippi State - the team that just upset Texas A&M - by 48 points.
God-King Tier
Alabama
I, for one, welcome our Crimson Tide overlords.
First Tier
Michigan
Clemson
Washington
What? All three of these teams just lost. In a strange quirk of the new Playoff system, all three will still join Bama in the final four by winning out. Who knew replacing the BCS would be this complicated?
Second Tier
Ohio State
Louisville
If there's a team that can make the Playoff without a conference championship, it's Ohio State. The Buckeyes would miss the Big Ten title game if Penn State wins out, but clearly have the love of the committee. Louisville's hopes amount to a longer shot, but the Cardinals did receive a great stroke of fortune with all the upsets this weekend.
Third Tier
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Western Michigan
The Badgers will win the West by beating Purdue and Minnesota, so an improbable two-loss Big Ten champion scenario isn't out of the question. The damned Sooners, inexplicable voter favorites that they are, could garner a repeat backdoor spot in the Playoff with a strong finish. Western Michigan, ever the faithful adherent to a system stacked against it, has only a minimal chance.
Pac-12 Report
Don't be fooled by Utah's 49-26 victory over Arizona State. This was a back-and-forth contest that saw the Utes leading 28-26 early in the fourth quarter. ASU isn't good, and Utah isn't a top-15 team. Neither is Stanford, although the Cardinal at least had the grace to drop out of the polls for a few weeks before clobbering hapless Oregon on Saturday.
Colorado and Washington State got comfortable wins over Arizona and Cal, respectively, while Oregon State fought hard but couldn't overcome its own miscues at UCLA. None of those results was surprising. USC over Washington, on the other hand, was harder to see coming.
I shouldn't be surprised, given how much temperance I've urged on Washington's behalf. I thought the Huskies were a very good team getting an artificial boost from a watered-down league, and this game confirmed that. However, I've also been skeptical for years about USC's talent-to-results ratio, given how often the Trojans have been the preseason favorite and failed to deliver. In this game, SC finally showed up on the big stage.
Sam Darnold had been good since taking over the QB job, but nothing he'd done prior to the UW game screamed breakout. Indeed, he was shaky early, throwing an interception to kill a promising opening drive. From that point on, though, he was quite good, delivering time and time again as Washington's defense struggled to rush the passer and stop drives after the crushing loss of linebacker Azeem Victor. Perhaps the Trojans are ready at last to jettison their mantle of mediocrity.
There are still games to be played, however, and as well as USC has played over the past month, its fate is out of its own control. The Trojans will almost certainly wrap up a 7-2 conference record against rival UCLA this week (before facing Notre Dame in their finale), yet it's ultimately up to Colorado and Utah to sort out the South.
We'll get an indication of how that will play out Saturday. Utah should beat Oregon, bringing the Utes' conference record to 6-2; another win the following week against Colorado would clinch the division. The Buffaloes must win out to take the South, as a tie with USC would hand the South to the Trojans. It's a tall order to beat Wazzu and Utah back-to-back, even with both games at home.
Further complicating the equation is the situation in the North. Washington should easily handle Arizona State to get to 7-1 in league play, but WSU - the Pac-12's last unbeaten team at 7-0 - can afford to lose in Boulder before returning to the friendly confines of Pullman to take on Washington in a winner-takes-all Apple Cup. (In other, less meaningful conference action, Stanford meets Cal for the Big Game in Berkeley, while Arizona and Oregon State face off in Corvallis.)
The North's resolution is simple: as long as Washington beats ASU, the Apple Cup decides the division. In the South, assuming USC and Utah both win this week, things still hinge on the two Colorado contests. Colorado takes the division with two more wins; Utah also clinches with two more wins, while USC has to hope for a Colorado loss to WSU this week followed by a Buffs' win against Utah.
Heisman Watch
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson has to be considered the runaway favorite at this point despite his merely average passing efficiency. Too many other contenders have stumbled (or lost games) to overcome his massive edge in stats.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
Don't count Hurts out. In case anyone thought Bama couldn't pass, Hurts put on a show with nearly 350 yards and four touchdowns in a 51-3 annihilation of Mississippi State. The kid is good.
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
Foreman's 167 yards against West Virginia actually lowered his nation-best average to 179 yards per game, but never fear: Saturday brings the gloriously awful Kansas defense squarely into his sights. This should be fun.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Browning wasn't the main reason the Huskies lost to USC (pin that on the O-line and defense), but he certainly didn't help his case with by far his worst game of the season. Winning out should still put him in New York, but his chance at actually snagging the trophy might be gone.
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
I love Terrell's steadiness and efficiency, as he's scored 28 times this season and turned the ball over just twice (one fumble, one pick). He's sharp in the pocket and deceptively nimble, and as long as WMU stays undefeated, he's got to be here.
Random Thoughts and Observations
It's getting tougher to ignore the elephant in the room that is Louisville. The Cardinals have very little hope of winning a (bad) major conference, normally a death blow to an aspiring National Championship contender. However, the Cardinals have been the beneficiaries of an archaic, poll-era quirk that has the potential to cause a lost of consternation among fans: they lost early. Louisville reaped the huge benefit of blowing out Florida State in September, way back when the Seminoles were considered an elite team (whoops). That "quality win" has been boosting the team for almost two months, even after FSU has been fully revealed as a fraud.
Voters in the polls don't know what to do about this. The teams ahead of Louisville keep losing, so traditional logic says the Cardinals have to move up, all the way to number three this week. But my poll - and the Playoff Committee - don't work that way (and I think we're on the same page). Barring a stunning loss to Wake Forest this week, Clemson will win the ACC Atlantic division. That's going to leave the Cardinals out in the cold, even at 11-1, because the wins just aren't there. Look at the teams Louisville has beaten this year. Charlotte. Syracuse. Marshall. Duke. North Carolina State. Virginia. Boston College. Other than FSU, the team's best win was last week, when it beat 6-4 Wake Forest. Louisville didn't just play an ACC schedule, it played a bad ACC schedule against the dregs of the conference. The Cardinals missed the top five teams from the Coastal, drawing bottom-feeders Duke and Virginia. That's what's ultimately going to kill this team in the eyes of the Committee.
2016 Stanzi Awards
It was a quiet week for the Stanzis, although three of the four winners came by their awards in Double Stanzi games. This time it was USC's Sam Darnold who broke through to the finalists, no small feat when you consider he's only been starting for seven games. Well done, Sam! Here are this week's winners
Week 11 Awards
Trace McSorley, Penn State
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, won by 15
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Sam Darnold, USC
Opponent: Washington
Performance: Two INT, won by 13
Jake Browning, Washington
Opponent: USC
Performance: Two INT, lost by 13
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Skyler Howard, West Virginia
Opponent: Texas
Performance: Three INT, won by three
Shane Buechele, Texas
Opponent: West Virginia
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by three
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Austin Appleby, Florida
Opponent: South Carolina
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 13
Jake Bentley, South Carolina
Opponent: Florida
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by 13
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
47 players: tied with 1
At this point, I'm not sure anyone will be able to catch Watson. The Clemson signal-caller already leads the pack with three weekly awards, but he also holds the tiebreaker in the form of his performance this week, when he tossed another three picks - including a back-breaker when the Tigers should have had the game in hand - to lose to Pitt. It'll fun to see if anyone can top that going forward.
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