College > NFL, but not really

We haven’t seen a week like that in a while. Five undefeated teams went down and others had their slight hopes extinguished in painful losses. Most shocking was USC’s defeat at the hands of Arizona, but Oklahoma’s loss at home to Notre Dame – after being favored by double digits – was surprising as well. Strangely, Saturday saw the second straight week an undefeated Big East team lost to a MAC squad.

The biggest shakeup as far as the BCS was concerned, though, was Florida’s loss to Georgia. It essentially removed the Gators from the conference and BCS championship race, barring a major upset for the Bulldogs. This is good news from a football standpoint because Florida looked completely undeserving of a title, but it seems unfair that they’ve been eliminated after one close loss.

Oregon State also went down in a hail of awful passes, igniting a quarterback controversy in Corvallis and showing for the first time this season that the Beavers might possibly regress to a mean somewhere between last year’s 3-9 debacle and this season’s 6-0 start. Most fans probably weren’t expecting a BCS title run anyway, but with Stanford and Oregon looming the loss to Washington was one OSU could little afford.

One of the other OSU’s, Ohio State, remained undefeated with a workmanlike win over Penn State. The Buckeyes are now 9-0 and ineligible for the postseason. Arrogantly taking that Gator Bowl appearance last season seems like a good tradeoff now, doesn’t it? Maybe if OSU hadn’t baited the NCAA like that they would have gotten off easier. But I digress.

The important point to take from Saturday was that the BCS championship discussion has been severely whittled down to a small handful of schools. Five (eligible) undefeateds remain, with Louisville way on the outside looking in. Unless craziness like the 2007 season breaks out, the BCS championship will in all likelihood involve some combination of Alabama, Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame… or LSU.

Ah, LSU. The Tigers, despite featuring an offense that aspires to the pace of the noble tortoise, have crawled back into the chase thanks to wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M. In typically underhanded SEC fashion, they even took a bye before facing Alabama this week. The Crimson Tide have been far more impressive to this point, but you never know what will happen in Baton Rouge. That’s not an easy place to play. With a win, LSU would position itself to be the first one-loss team in title talks.

We’ll know more after this week, when a slate of good matchups makes things even clearer. Oklahoma State is at Kansas State, Arizona State heads to Oregon State and Arizona plays at UCLA. Then there are the two big ‘uns: Oregon at USC and Alabama – LSU. Remaining contender Notre Dame gets Pitt.

Top 25

1) Kansas State

Top of the pops for at least one week, though that will change if Oregon and ‘Bama win. KSU is definitely good, but aside from their past two games they’ve not shown nearly the level of dominance those teams have. With Oklahoma losing to Notre Dame, the Wildcats’ marquee win is also a bit tarnished.

2) Alabama

The Tide don’t get a boost from beating Mississippi State because anyone with a brain knows the Bulldogs are garbage. I would have dropped Alabama if the score had been remotely close. With a win over LSU this team will move back up to number one where it belongs.

3) Oregon

Beating Colorado impresses no one. The good news is the weak part of the schedule is over. Even after a second loss, USC is dangerous; Stanford and Oregon State are no pushovers either. Depending on how good the Ducks really are, they could blow out their final four opponents… or lose to all of them (Cal included).

4) Notre Dame

Give credit to Everett Golson and the Fighting Irish defense. Both played simply superb, mistake-free football to beat Oklahoma. That’s what Notre Dame needs to win games, because they’re not as talented as the rest of the unbeatens. This team is 8-0 but could easily be 5-3.

5) LSU

Just like in 2007, LSU seems to be one of those teams that keep hanging around long after its hopes should have been dead and buried. Nothing we’ve seen this season remotely indicates the Tigers should be able to play with ‘Bama, but wouldn’t it be just like LSU to play one good half of offense and pull out an ugly win?

6) Florida State

Not totally convinced, but four teams ahead of the Seminoles lost. To be fair, FSU would be undefeated right now if not for one of their trademark mental lapses in the second half against NCSU. There are a lot of teams I’d pick the ‘Noles to beat on a neutral field. Some of them are undefeated.

7) Ohio State

It’s time to accept the fact that OSU is probably going to go 12-0. Too bad for the Buckeyes, though perhaps it’s a saving grace that they’re not eligible to get throttled in the postseason by some SEC, Pac-12 or Big 12 squad. The Big Ten is just atrocious, so the record doesn’t say much.

8) Florida

Huh. I dislike when teams win without any offensive ability, but I kind of thought the Gators were in the clear once they got past South Carolina and LSU. The defense did its part against Georgia, but for once sense prevailed in the SEC and a team’s complete QB ineptitude actually hurt it.

9) Clemson

Too high for these Tigers, but there will be room in the next few weeks to move them around depending on other results. Some of the teams I have below Clemson would probably beat them. However, those teams have much uglier losses. Right now this team should be rewarded for having just one close defeat.

10) South Carolina

Carolina moved back up because Georgia looked better on Saturday. Still, there’s no denying that the Gamecocks have looked terrible lately. Losing Marcus Lattimore again is devastating and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team lose again. Beating Tennessee by three is a joke.

11) Oklahoma State

I keep sayin’ it and no one believes! How is Oklahoma State unranked in the media poll? The Cowboys are 5-2, with losses only to other ranked teams. I don’t expect them to go in and beat K-State this week, but they’re a good team. This poll situation is bizarre beyond all reason.

12) Louisville

Well… the Cincinnati game was illuminating, and not in a good way. The Big East is clearly as bad as ever and the Cardinals were fortunate to pull out a win. They may yet go undefeated, but they’ll certainly never get enough respect to move higher than the Orange or Sugar Bowl.

13) Georgia

The Bulldogs just got their biggest win of the season and I still have them outside the top 10. That’s because I have eyes. Georgia has played one decent – decent! – game this season. It just happened to come against a highly ranked Florida team. Unless UGA can follow this up with something impressive, my feelings on them won’t change.

14) Oregon State

Oof. I had just started to believe, Beavers! To be fair, OSU is clearly a better team than Washington. The Beavs picked a bad time to start the wrong QB and it cost them. ASU now looks a little dicey this week. This team could still play in the Rose Bowl, so they can’t let up.

15) USC

Went back and worth on where SC deserved to be. The Trojans have played some very uninspiring football this year. Nevertheless, they remain supremely talented and could very well ruin Oregon’s season this week by taking down the Ducks at home. It completely depends on them.

16) Oklahoma

Just wow, Oklahoma. It’s really hard to get down on a program that has been elite as consistently as OU, but YOU SHOULD BE BETTER THAN THIS! How the Sooners let an offense half a century behind the times (in ability, not scheme – Brian Kelly called a great game) beat them is beyond me. Who knows where OU will finish this year.

17) Texas Tech

I was high on the Red Raiders. Then, just like with West Virginia, Kansas State happened. The first half saw T-Tech blow opportunities. The second half saw them blown off the field. It would appear that this team is part of an ever-growing collection of above-average, but not great, Big 12 teams.

18) Texas A&M

You get style points but not substance points for blowing out woeful Auburn. A&M rebounded sharply from the LSU disappointment and now they get reeling Mississippi State. I doubt MSU can handle Johnny Football or outscore A&M. All signs point to a big win for the Aggies, but I’ve been wrong before. Once.

19) West Virginia

WVU got a week off to cope with the back-to-back hammerings they were dealt. How will they respond? Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU are still on the schedule. It may eventually look ludicrous that we could have considered the ‘Eers a contender. I’d be surprised if they fell that far, though.

20) Arizona

RichRod notched his first big win, Matt Scott outdueled Matt Barkley and the ‘Cats moved to just one game back in the South. If only Arizona had beat OSU and Stanford! This team still might play for the Pac-12 title. All they need to control their destiny is for Oregon to beat USC. By the way, I believe I called that Ka’Deem Carey was really good.

21) Boise State

Looked some more at their schedule and had to drop the Broncos. There are just too many good teams that deserve to be ranked above them. The bizarreness that is the BCS could make this pedestrian squad a major-bowl team. I hope it doesn’t come to that, even if BSU is owed one by the system.

22) Stanford

That stinky seven-point win over WSU didn’t do much to inspire confidence. ‘Furd keeps winning, but they can’t blame this mess on the refs. Of the remaining games that aren’t Colorado (this week), how many more wins are the Cardinal picking up? Oregon, OSU and UCLA? That’s a rugged road.

23) Nebraska

I expected the Cornhuskers to come through and they did. Most of the heavy lifting is over, though getting a win over Michigan State this week would go a long way. Given that Michigan will likely lose again to Ohio State the Huskers have some wiggle room, but they could make things easier on themselves by just winning out.

24) UCLA

Close win over ASU, but it was on the road. The Bruins have taken some nice steps this season and remain in control of their conference fate. A fantastic South division showdown with Arizona looms large this week. UCLA is at home and could inject some real excitement into the Jim Mora era with a win.

25) Toledo

The Rockets haven’t beat anyone, but I retain a soft spot for mid-majors, especially ones who beat AQ schools. The only loss was the opener at Arizona, which looks pretty good right now. The top of the MAC is shaping up to be solid this year and Toledo looks to be at the top.

Pac-12 Report

The conference didn’t do itself any favors this week, with Arizona ending USC’s fleeting title hopes and Washington ending Oregon State’s undefeated season. UW is now the nation’s leading candidate for schizophrenic team of the year, though their pattern is actually pretty simple: play great defense at home, fail to show up on the road. Regardless, it was a huge win for a team badly needing one. The Huskies hadn’t won since their massive upset of Stanford a month ago.

I was this close to writing Washington off after that humiliating blowout in the desert dropped them to 3-4. Now it appears the team will likely make another bowl, needing only two more wins from a schedule of bottom-feeders composed of Cal, Utah, Colorado and WSU. Three of the four are on the road… but 8-4 is within reach.

To be sure, USC and OSU’s stumbles were painful for the Pac-12, but it was Stanford who almost made the week an utter disaster by losing to Wazzu. The Cardinal needed a defensive touchdown to escape the Cougars at home. They get a reprieve this week with Colorado, then host Oregon State before road games at Oregon and UCLA to end the season. 0-3 is a possibility.

Obviously there’s a lot of disappointment in Corvallis this week. The Beavers beat themselves against an inferior opponent, which is almost unheard of in the Mike Riley era and hadn’t happened yet this season. Well, the Beavs had better pick themselves up and get ready for Arizona State, because the Sun Devils can absolutely beat them as well if OSU can’t fix the offense.

Riley has already made the QB switch back to Cody Vaz, which became painfully obvious was the right choice about halfway though last week’s game in Seattle. What’s done is done, though. OSU has to recognize the Rose Bowl is still within reach if they win out, even if they don’t beat Oregon. They have to start by winning this week.

The South division is now in complete disarray following Arizona’s big win over USC, with three teams now in control of their own fate. The Wildcats aren’t far behind; if Oregon knocks off the Trojans this week ‘Zona will play in the Pac-12 championship by winning out. Of course, they’ll have to get by UCLA first, whom they visit this week in another giant divisional showdown.

The Bruins are coming off their biggest league win to date, outlasting ASU in a desert classic. This team has really looked good under Jim Mora, but I do wonder if they may have just caught some breaks/some teams at the right time. None of the Bruins' final four games are gimmes, even Wazzu, so this Arizona game is critical.

The ASU – OSU and Arizona – UCLA games are both important, but everyone knows which conference game the national eye falls on this week. It’s finally here! And USC completely failed to take care of business! Unfortunately, the Oregon – USC matchup was tarnished before September was out, but I held out hope that a one-loss Trojan squad could represent the “redemption” storyline in this game. Alas, even that wasn’t meant to be, as SC fell last week at Arizona. Now it’s all about whether Oregon’s season will be ruined.

USC has essentially looked exactly the same as I predicted before the season: highly talented on offense and extremely flawed overall. The Trojans can score on anyone and have the potential to play with any team, but they’re poorly coached, sloppy, penalty-prone, poorly coached, inconsistent, and poorly coached. Also, they’re poorly coached. Remember that.

SC has a lot of talent but doesn’t look anything like a complete team.  This is because, as I said in August, they’re just not that good. I was baffled by the predictions that had them going undefeated, because they played all of about four good games in 2011. The hot finish to the season fooled everyone, though, and the message was, “USC is back!” No, they’re not. And the 6-2 record proves that.

However, that does not mean the Trojans are incapable of beating Oregon this week. On the contrary, Duck fans should be very worried. USC is a better team than Arizona and beat themselves, so they’ll probably be much sharper against the team they were clearly looking ahead to this week. If the Trojans’ offense plays the way it did last year at Autzen, it will mean trouble. If UO’s numbers really are inflated by its weak schedule, it will mean trouble. If freshman QB Marcus Mariota struggles in his toughest road test to date, it will mean trouble. Oregon has everything to lose and SC has everything to gain in this contest.

I have watched both teams extensively this year. Oregon has, without a doubt, been the better team. Even if they lose, they’re probably the better team. But the better team doesn’t always win, particularly in college football. Oregon should be very, very wary of the Trojans, who are fighting for their postseason (conference championship) lives.

Heisman Watch

Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

With Geno Smith M.I.A., this has suddenly become a one-man field. Look, I like Manti Te’o and Jarvis Jones, who both made great defensive plays last week to seal wins for their respective teams. But really? THIS is the year we’re going to give the Heisman to a defensive player? When Ndamukong Suh, the most dominant defensive player of at least the past decade, got beat out by freaking Mark Ingram? Let’s use our brains here.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I cursed Kent State for their upset of Rutgers last week. The Golden Flashes were a team I had my eye on and a big reason why I was skeptical of Ohio’s chances of going unbeaten. The Bobcats lost anyway, but I was looking forward to calling that upset and looking smart down the road. Now I'll just look like a bandwagon type.

Speaking of Kent State, the Golden Flashes are now the national leaders in turnover margin. If ever the importance of turnover margin was in doubt, this should erase that thought: the top six teams in the country in that category – Kent State, Louisiana Tech, Alabama, Kansas State, Ohio and Mississippi State (the leaders until last week) – have a combined four losses.

Notre Dame does have reason to be worried about its ranking. Despite even 8-0 records for Oregon, Alabama, KSU and the Irish, voters have taken notice of the many close escapes. Against FBS schools with winning records, Oregon averages 47 points per game, Kansas State averages 40 and Alabama averages 36. Notre Dame averages 25. So there’s correlation between on-field results and polling position.

And in the interception derby, only Louisiana Tech and Alabama have yet to throw a pick this season. Who will be the last team standing? It would be very impressive if Alabama could navigate the SEC without an interception, particularly with LSU on deck.

Steve Spurrier this week brought up the age-old notion that a great college team (in this case Alabama) could beat the NFL's worst team. It's not surprising; every time a program has a few really great years in a row someone drags this argument out. The same thing happened to USC in the mid-2000's. The problem is that it's absurd. Just as almost everyone on a Division-1 college football team was a high school star, nearly everybody on an NFL roster was a very good collegiate player. The idea that a team of 18-to-22-year-olds could actually compete - or even defeat - a roster of professional players whose job it is to train for and play football is ludicrous. The best team in the country would be flattened by any NFL team. End of story.

Zero week to Armageddon

The poll voters have been put in an unenviable position this season. Reconciling what has happened on the field with what traditionally makes football teams successful has been confusing and difficult. Each of the top four teams in the rankings has an argument for being number one… or number four. That’s before you even get to fifth-ranked Notre Dame and the other undefeateds (Oregon State, Mississippi State, Louisville, Rutgers, Ohio and ineligible Ohio State).

To be cruelly honest, you can toss the mid-major (Ohio) and the Big East squads (UL, Rutgers) out. None is likely to play for a title and the voters know it. MSU is a joke; they’ve played no one. Oregon State is a different animal, and quite frankly, what has Notre Dame done this season that OSU hasn’t? Something to ponder for later.

The top four teams are the easiest to determine, but the order is vexing. By virtue of current accomplishments, Florida and Kansas State should be ahead of Oregon. In fact, I’d go so far as to say they should both be 1-2 (respectively) ahead of Alabama as well. People are making light of Oregon’s schedule to this point, but Alabama has faced no one either. The Crimson Tide’s best win is either over Tennessee or, in hindsight, a vastly overrated Michigan team. Oregon has Arizona and ASU.

But just getting W’s isn’t the best criteria, because both Oregon and ‘Bama have looked a lot better than K-State and UF. The buzzword this season is “complete,” as in “complete football team,” and it applies to the first two schools much more than the second. The Tide and Ducks have shown the ability to run and pass on offense, consistently gets stops on D and close out opponents early. The Gators and Wildcats can both play defense and run the ball. That’s about it. They’ve won their games by out-toughing their opponents, not by blowing them away.

So while Oregon and Alabama have both been more impressive, it’s not surprising at all that the BCS computers would favor Florida or Kansas State. It’s why I significantly overhauled my own rankings this week. For the polls to be fluidly responsive and fair, there must be room for teams to move up for earning better wins, regardless of other teams’ similar records.

What we learned this week: South Carolina wasn’t as good as we believed; by proxy Georgia really isn’t very good; West Virginia was a fraud; so was Texas A&M; neither Stanford nor Wisconsin nor LSU is dead yet; Arizona State is still waiting to “wake up,” the Big Ten is still awful.

Next week: Few big games, but the ones we get are important. Florida should hammer Georgia, K-State should handle Texas Tech, Alabama will crush Mississippi State and Oklahoma will beat Notre Dame. Other significant conference clashes include UCLA – Arizona State and Michigan – Nebraska.

Top 25

1) Florida

This kills me. I’ve watched Florida and despite the score last weekend, they are not the nation’s best team. But going by current resume, the Gators have wins over three ranked teams and deserve to be number one. It’s no wonder the BCS loves them so much.

2) Kansas State

Once again, not the country’s second-best team. West Virginia was probably overrated. Oklahoma’s good, though, and Iowa State’s nothing to sneer at. Current resume, people, current resume. The Wildcats also have one of the great nicknames (Optimus Klein) in recent memory, so there’s that.

3) Alabama

There’s a chance, however remote, that Alabama has played a bunch of patsies and will get exposed soon. I’m not holding my breath. Once the Tide notch a couple of real victories I’ll be more than happy to move them back to numero uno.

4) Oregon

ASU clearly wasn’t as good as the stats showed… but come on. The 18 minutes after UO coughed up the ball on the game’s second play were ludicrous. 43 points? The starters were gone by halftime. That’s domination.

5) Oregon State

To reiterate my earlier point, OSU has wins over Wisconsin, UCLA, Arizona and BYU. The Beavs beat the Cougars much more impressively than Notre Dame and since we’ve established the Big Ten is garbage the Irish’s Michigan-school wins don’t look nearly as good. Beavers deserve to be top five.

6) Notre Dame

While getting to 7-0 with no offense against a pretty good schedule is laudable, I strongly believe the ride comes to an end this week. Oklahoma is talented and at home, where the Sooners almost never lose. To see the visitors pull this off would be a minor miracle.

7) LSU

The entire time A&M was building that lead I kept thinking to myself, “No, you need touchdowns.” Verily, I was proved right in time, as LSU stormed back from a 12-0 hole to actually take the lead before halftime in stunning fashion. It was all over at that point. Thanks for playing, Aggies, you’re not ready.

8) Oklahoma

The Red River blowout was one thing, but I have a feeling OU is getting ready to jump back onto the national scene this week. Seemingly everything is in the Sooners’ favor, the only real problem is that most people seem to expect them to win. Play their game, and they will without issue.

9) USC

Ah, another stat-padder against Colorado, eh? It worked last season. This week the Trojans get somebody who can actually bite back, though to what extent remains to be seen. It is notable that ‘Zona put up 50 on the same UW team SC struggled to break 20 on the week prior.

10) Florida State

It wasn’t entirely pretty but the Seminoles ground out a win over rival Miami (FL) Saturday night. If only the team had showed that kind of will against NCSU. Then again, I seem to say that every season. FSU should run the table the rest of the way.

11) Ohio State

Another great escape, this time partially without Braxton Miller. If the Big Ten were at its normal level of quality, I don’t know if this Buckeyes team would be 8-0. But it is and they are – the only 8-0 team in the country, in fact.

12) Clemson

It’s doubtful the Tigers should be this high on the list, but until they have another close game or loss you can’t fault them too much for the schedule. Right now Clemson is winning by double digits regularly, which is what good teams should do to inferior competition.

13) Texas Tech

What do Tech and Kansas State have in common? They both blew out West Virginia. Now we’ll see how much more they have in common, as the Red Raiders travel to the Little Apple this week. I’m picking K-State, but you never know…

14) Rutgers

I’m biting. I like what I’ve seen out of this defense and the offense is definitely coming along. After a sloppy start Saturday the Scarlet Knights blew out and shut out Temple. Quality teams find a way; Rutgers does just that.

15) Louisville

I remain skeptical, even though these guys were my preseason Big East pick. Cincy isn’t great but they’re not bad either, so the Bearcats should provide a solid test for Teddy Bridgewater and Co. This league has parity, that’s for sure. Quality, that’s another story.

16) Boise State

Too high for the Broncos? Possibly. My dirty secret is that I know I can’t be proven wrong here, because BSU’s next few opponents are horrendous. If they’re not at least a 10-win team in 2012, something will have gone horribly wrong.

17) Oklahoma State

I've kept the Cowboys up here despite their lack of love from the pollsters and they keep rewarding me. Iowa State isn’t bad and OSU schooled them 31-10. That’s more points than Texas Tech and KSU beat them by combined. A caveat: quarterback injuries could soon become a major problem.

18) South Carolina

I wanted to like South Carolina after that hot start. Now they’ve disappointed me two weeks in a row and look a lot more like the team I saw opening night. Maybe I was right after all. The Gamecocks are all but finished in the SEC race.

19) West Virginia

What happened? You would have thought that after the national embarrassment that was Texas Tech, the Mountaineers’ defense would have showed up against K-State. You’d have been wrong. Not to sound melodramatic, but the season’s over for WVU.

20) Stanford

All things considered, not a bad win over Cal. Harder games remain, but not for at least a couple weeks. Wazzu and Colorado shouldn’t be too much of a challenge. The Oregon schools, well, that’s a different story.

21) Georgia

I expect Georgia to lose this week to Florida anyway, but the Bulldogs have to drop after barely beating Kentucky this week. Really? This is a top 10 team? Has anyone actually watched them play? Each win has been underwhelming.

22) Texas A&M

Props to the Aggies for jumping out to a quick lead on LSU, but once the emotion wore off it became abundantly clear who the better team was. A&M’s not bad, but the offense isn’t as explosive as it seemed against a bunch of bad defenses.

23) Mississippi State

Once Alabama manhandles the Bulldogs this charade will be over. Outside of the four wins over garbage nonconference teams, MSU has beaten the three worst teams in the SEC (Auburn, Tennessee and Kentucky), who are a combined 0-14 in conference. This will be a slaughter.

24) Ohio

The Bobcats had a week off, so hopefully they’ll get their heads right for this scheduling oddity – Saturday will be the last time Ohio plays on a weekend this season. The final four games, in order, are on Thursday, Wednesday, Wednesday and Friday. Goofy. But this team might go 12-0.

25) Nebraska

I stand by my preseason pick of the Cornhuskers to take the Legends division. This week will probably decide it as Michigan comes to town. If the Wolverines win they’ll take over this spot. With Ohio State and suddenly decent Penn State ineligible, this conference race has lost a lot of its heat.

Pac-12 Report

It’s a grab bag this week on the Best Coast: a little bit of everything. We’ve got a pair of real stinkers in Colorado – Oregon and WSU – Stanford, a couple of games with potential in USC – Arizona and Oregon State – Washington and two potentially great games with UCLA – ASU and Cal – Utah.

UO and Colorado is a no-brainer. A Buffaloes upset would be one of the biggest upsets in the history of college football. Stanford should likewise have no trouble with Wazzu… even though the Cougs can get hot throwing the ball… which is Stanford’s weakness… but no. Game’s on the Farm, Wazzu has no defense, case closed.

USC at ‘Zona is intriguing. Some people are predicting a shootout because of the potential of both offenses, but it seems SC should come out of this one fairly unscathed. The Trojans have struggled at times to move the ball, true, but the Wildcats’ D is pretty bad. I don’t see this being too close.

Oregon State playing on the road at Washington could be interesting. The Beavers’ two league wins away from Reser have been by a combined 10 points and if the Huskies can get any help for Keith Price at all they can score. Still, I think we know what we have at this point with UW. Some craziness notwithstanding, OSU should get the victory.

By far the best games of the week – at least on paper – are the final two contests. Cal versus Utah is a game that features bottom-feeders, but it should be competitive. Much more can be said about the other matchup, which actually carries some weight.

As predicted, the UCLA – Arizona State game has major South division implications. Unfortunately some of the luster is gone now that both teams have lost a couple games, but this will still function more or less as an elimination game for the Pac-12 championship. Neither team can realistically hope to win the division with a loss.

ASU is still reeling from getting hit by the hammer that is Oregon, as coach Todd Graham put it. Can/will the Sun Devils bounce back right away? Having an extra couple of days can’t hurt, although UCLA trumps that by having a whole extra week off. That, combined with the luxury of watching the Ducks beat ASU last week, has me leaning UCLA.

Heisman Watch

Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

Klein is the only real candidate right now because no one has stepped up to provide competition. Until last week Geno Smith was the obvious choice, but losing twice in blowout fashion means that his chance is gone. Even if WVU runs the table the rest of the way, people won’t forget those games. Klein isn’t my favorite player but he does win games. More importantly, no one else has stepped up, so right now he has to be the frontrunner.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Braxton Miller left Ohio State’s game last week in an ambulance. Reports indicate that he is practicing this week and will play. This is somewhat outrageous given the nature of his injury and the fact that it’s a head/neck concern. In general, a person needs at least two weeks to fully recover from that kind of impact. Playing a football game seven days later is very unsafe, regardless of whether team doctors clear Miller . When Urban Meyer was at Florida he did a very similar thing in 2009, allowing Tim Tebow to play in the next game after suffering a brutal concussion. The difference was that Florida had a bye week between games; Miller’s not even getting that.

Interesting little story here, as the L.A. Times’ T.J. Simers reports Lane Kiffin had a backup QB swap jerseys with a running back in order to run a fake against Colorado. It’s still up in the air whether this is a penalty-worthy move, but in any case it’s undoubtedly a dubious attempt to trick opponents and a violation of the spirit of the rules. Seeing that it’s Kiffin, though, most people probably aren’t surprised.

Next week: Ultra-mega-super showdowns abound.

The long and winding road... begins

The unexpected broke out on Saturday, the result of another day in college football land. LSU played its best game of the year and upset South Carolina. Oklahoma hammered Texas in record-breaking fashion. West Virginia went down in flames in Lubbock. Notre Dame… withstood, shall we say, a tough challenge from Stanford. Oregon State put together its most complete performance on the road at BYU. To cap off the night, Ohio State and Texas A&M survived video-game shootouts

Through it all, there was Alabama, predictably chugging along with another dominant effort against Missouri. It’s telling that I saw the 21-0 first-half lead, shrugged, and changed the channel. Oregon was off but returns this Thursday to face upstart Arizona State, a game that could demonstrate how both teams will fare down the stretch.

Florida was the weekend’s big winner, even though the actual game the Gators played against Vanderbilt was more than a little dicey. The fact that many people suspect Texas A&M might be frauds meant LSU was the only win for Florida to hang its hat on. A Tigers loss to South Carolina would have been very deflating. Now that LSU beat the Gamecocks, though, that win looks really good. The Gators still have to beat Carolina themselves, but obviously the BCS thinks highly of their schedule.

As for the initial BCS rankings, everything that ESPN’s team said was true. It’s surprising that Florida was ahead of Oregon at number two, but it means nothing long-term because Florida would play Alabama in the SEC championship anyway. That is, if they get there – and that’s a big if with both the Gamecocks and Georgia still on the ticket.

The major controversy of the week came from South Bend, where Notre Dame beat Stanford by keeping the Cardinal out of the endzone in overtime. Anyone who isn’t an Irish homer – looking at you, Lou Holtz – saw that Stepfan Taylor did in fact score, but the officials (a Pac-12 crew!) ruled otherwise. It was the wrong call, which is unfortunate for Stanford. However, it’s also worth noting that the Cardinal should have had the game wrapped up in regulation by scoring a touchdown on their final offensive possession. When they settled for three points, they gave the sputtering Notre Dame offense a chance to equalize. The Irish took full advantage.

In other contender news, Oregon State shook off a rugged BYU team to jump to 5-0. When you consider where this program has been the past two years, this is amazing. When you add in the extenuating circumstances – on the road, with a backup quarterback – it becomes almost unbelievable. What was so wrong with the Beavers last year that kept them from playing like this? More on OSU in the Pac-12 section.

This week there are a few early rivalry games along with some quality conference race action: Oregon at ASU in a show-me contest; LSU at Texas A&M; The Big Game (that’s Stanford-Cal for the rubes); South Carolina at Florida; BYU at Notre Dame in the Religious Schools Everyone Else Hates Bowl; Michigan State – Michigan; Alabama and Tennessee; Kansas State – West Virginia, and Florida State at Miami (FL).

Top 25

1) Alabama

The Crimson Tide leaped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead on Mizzou despite monsoon conditions, then cruised the rest of the way. A.J. McCarron appears to be fine and schedule is still fairly easy. Tennessee should be no challenge this week and Mississippi State is a top-15 team only to people who have never watched football before.

2) Oregon

The schedule is weaker than Florida’s, but that’s the case for most teams, including ‘Bama. Analysts agree that Oregon has looked far more impressive through six games than the Gators. Now the real work begins: in the Ducks’ remaining six games they will play at least four, if not five, bowl-bound teams. ASU could be tricky on Thursday night.

3) Florida

The Gators have defied my (and analysts’) expectations to this point. The question is, can they handle prosperity? The next two weeks against South Carolina and Georgia will make or break the season and determine the East champion. Thanks to fortuitous scheduling (what a surprise), Florida plays its next five games at home. Even so, I don’t know if they’re good enough to go 8-0 in-conference.

4) Kansas State

Put simply, K-State was lucky to escape Farmageddon. Not unlike Florida, the Wildcats have only the barest hint of a passing game. Not even their superhuman level of pluck will be able to get them to 12-0 if that can’t improve. At some point, this team will be down and need to throw the ball. They haven’t shown yet that they can do it.

5) Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish defense is, without a doubt, top-notch. The offense is absolutely horrendous. There’s plenty to complain about with the game-ending call that went against Stanford, but the team honestly has to be more concerned with its own scoring. Teams with better offenses than Stanford’s remain on the Irish’s schedule.

6) LSU

From the first six games of the season, you really wouldn’t have thought LSU could play with South Carolina. Nevertheless, the Tigers did what good teams should be able to: win at home against other good teams. I’m still skeptical (to say the least) of the offense, but it probably won’t be as big an issue as people think. Texas A&M and Mississippi State aren’t nearly as talented and Alabama is a wash.

7) Oregon State

Somehow this team managed to plug in a completely green backup quarterback and get a brilliant performance and a road win. Thank the offensive line, which has come light years since the disasters of 2010 and 2011. There are certainly more talented teams than the Beavers on the schedule, but we’ll have to give OSU credit until someone proves they can beat them.

8) South Carolina

To be honest, I wouldn’t take Oregon State over Carolina head-to-head. Too bad; the Gamecocks just lost. This squad’s ranking is in limbo until next week after the Florida game. It’s possible Georgia was just really overrated, in which case we’ll need to reevaluate this whole SEC thing.

9) Oklahoma

Where has that OU team been? Texas’ defense had struggled relative to its talent level, yes, but that could be explained by the fact that the Longhorns had previously played Okie State and West Virginia. Not so much after what Oklahoma did. The Sooners gained 677 yards and didn’t allow a point to UT’s offense until there was less than five minutes to play. Now we need to see OU build from this.

10) USC

An ugly, ugly win in Seattle for the Trojans. Just like in the Stanford game, SC was shut out in the second half and put up only two offensive touchdowns. This simply can’t continue for the Trojans to have any hope at all for a Pac-12 title. This team has one more contest (at Arizona) before the showdown with Oregon. They’d better use it well.

11) Florida State

If the Seminoles keep their focus, a 12-win season is more than doable. That’s the thing, though: focus. Teams like Duke, Maryland and Boston College this past week have no business playing with FSU. Neither did North Carolina State. It wouldn’t even shock me if the ‘Noles beat Florida in the finale, but they’ll have to show up and act like they want it.

12) Ohio State

Well, that was a little bizarre. Give the Buckeyes credit for scoring half a hundred, but really? Indiana? OSU twice had an 18-point fourth-quarter lead on the Hoosiers, yet needed to recover an onsides kick in the final seconds to escape. I’d say this team is headed for a fall, but the Big Ten schedule is, fortunately, rather forgiving.

13) Georgia

You don’t fool me, Georgia. Taking a bye right after getting punched in the mouth so everyone forgets about you won’t work. Ostensibly the Bulldogs were preparing for Kentucky this week, but it seems more likely they had their next foe (Florida) on their minds. Good thing, because with the defense the Gators have been playing, next week could feel like South Carolina all over again.

14) Clemson

The close win over Auburn now looks really, really bad. Still, it’s hard to imagine few (if any) of the remaining teams on the schedule posing much of a threat for the Tigers. I’m curious about the defense, considering the points this team has allowed in its last three games. The offense remains the flashy sports car of the ACC.

15) Texas Tech

Yes, Texas Tech has always been able to score, but come on. What in the world happened Saturday in Lubbock? The Red Raiders have only the one loss to Oklahoma right now and beat Iowa State much more convincingly than KSU did. In the deep Big 12, Tech suddenly appears to be a team capable of making some noise.

16) West Virginia

After watching WVU a few times, it was obvious the defense was going to get the Mountaineers killed at some point. I just think most people didn’t see it happening against Texas Tech, or in that fashion. The perfect storm of horribleness in Lubbock flattened the ‘Eers title dreams. That doesn’t mean they can’t knock off K-State next week.

17) Louisville

Not a bad win, not a great win over Pitt this week. The final score was misleading, but I still have doubts about how good these Big East teams are. Louisville’s best win is over North Carolina. We might not really know until bowl season, because the Cardinals could run the table without facing a real top-25 team.

18) Texas A&M

The offensive numbers are impressive, to be sure. But it’s still unclear how much we know about this squad. The FBS foes they’ve played who are not Florida average a rating of 85^th in the country in scoring defense. Against Florida, the Aggies put up 17. That doesn’t bode well with LSU coming to town.

19) Boise State

Boise’s competition to this point hasn’t been as bad as major-conference snobs would have you believe, so the 5-1 record is a decent achievement. The good news is that while the Broncos have had trouble scoring, the schedule gets a lot easier in the second half of the season. Four of the next five opponents have one win each.

20) Stanford

Not really a drop, seeing as the Cardinal didn’t really lose. That said, they’ll lose a game for real this week if they don’t get over the Notre Dame call and get ready for Cal. That would have sounded ludicrous a few weeks ago, but the Bears are on an upswing and at home. With both Oregon schools lurking in November, Stanford can’t afford a slip-up.

21) Arizona State

The schedule has been weak. But at 5-1 (even with the loss coming at the hands of Mizzou), ASU should be ranked. And to be honest, even taking the opponents into consideration, the Sun Devils have passed the eye test far more than Cincinnati or Ohio (though I am a supporter of the Bobcats).

22) Mississippi State

I’ll toss them a ranking, but in no way is this the nation’s number twelve team. The best win was against Tennessee last week and the Bulldogs only won by 10 points! Fortunately for the SEC, MSU scheduled brilliantly and plays another patsy this week before facing three straight ranked teams. This ride’s going to be over real soon.

23) Oklahoma State

According to the BCS, Okie State’s next six opponents are ranked. That’s a bit of a leap, considering that the list includes Iowa State and TCU. Even with injury concerns, I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to see the Cowboys winning the next two games – both at home – before playing Kansas State.

24) Rutgers

My gut tells me Rutgers is probably better than Louisville. The Scarlet Knights certainly aren’t bad; they’re third in the country in scoring defense, after all. But the schedule is really weak – Rutgers’ three Big East wins came against teams with one combined league win themselves. The Knights are 6-0 but remain untested.

25) Ohio

The Penn State win is looking decent now, but since the beginning of the season the Bobcats have won four FBS games by a total of 19 points. They’re living on the edge, a place that can be dangerous in the very parity-heavy MAC. Ohio is one of only two 7-0 teams, though.

Pac-12 Report

I really thought I had Mike Riley figured out. My point of view that he was a good coach never wavered. In 2010 and 2011 I assumed the Beavers would eventually turn things around like they always did, long after they had given me reason to do so. I got burned both times, part of the reason why I was so down on OSU to begin this season. Reasonably, how could a 3-9 team get not only to bowl eligibility but into conference championship contention in less than one year?

Riley has always done more with less than just about any coach in the country, but he’s not a miracle worker. Seeing Oregon State come back to earth the past two seasons seemed to indicate he might need to change his philosophy a bit to keep up with the surging Oregons and Stanfords of the football world. What’s so impressive is that Riley rebounded his way, staying true to his own style and putting the Beavers back where they were at the end of the last decade.

Before the BYU game, I would have likely said the Beavers’ schedule allowed for a 10-win season if everything went right, which it has so far. After they dispatched a pretty good Cougars team, it’s a lot harder to figure. OSU misses USC this year (although considering how badly the Trojans have played in Corvallis, that may be a bad thing). Utah this week is a gimme. Nicholls State is too… provided the Beavers don’t play in the Pac-12 championship game.

The road isn’t easy. Even at .500, Washington is no cakewalk in Seattle. Playing at Stanford later on is also tough, though to this point OSU has really been the better team. The home games are Utah, ASU, Cal and Oregon. We still don’t know about the Sun Devils and Cal is a mystery. Both could turn out to be big challenges or laughers. The Ducks are the only team I would take straight up against the Beavers right now. And the Civil War is in Corvallis. I really don’t know where this team will finish.

That’s actually the case with a few Pac-12 teams. 3-3 teams Arizona and Washington face off in a huge battle Saturday with a ton on the line. Both schools need a confidence-boosting win and a good start to the second half of the season. Even though there’s a lot of time left, bowl eligibility is realistically on the line in this game. Having to win three of five to end the season is much more difficult getting two wins, especially if you’re already 3-4.

The other question mark is Cal, who fought back to 3-4 after a horrendous start to the year. The North race seemed to be down to Oregon, OSU and Stanford, but the Bears can still play a role (and win it, but that’s unlikely) because they have yet to play all three of those teams. That makes Utah and UW must-wins – and forces Cal to beat at least one ranked team to reach the postseason.

The fates of WSU, Colorado and Utah have basically been decided – none will be bowling this year. The South still potentially has three contenders, but another loss would all but eliminate UCLA. That means it’s down to Arizona State and USC. We’ll know just how close the race will be Thursday after the Oregon game. With the Trojans looking shaky, a Sun Devils win against the Ducks might make them the favorite.

Of the five conference games this week, there are two probable blowouts (Colorado – USC and Utah – OSU) and three possible tight games (Oregon – ASU, Stanford – Cal and Washington – Arizona). UCLA and WSU are off, so next week will be the first time this season all 12 league members will play each other on the same day. Speaking of the 12 in Pac-12, it would really be nice if Utah and Colorado stopped being more than dead weight.

Heisman Watch

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

WVU melted down in Lubbock and Smith threw more incompletions than he had all season. He still hasn’t thrown a pick, though, and Saturday’s loss was about so much more than him. The gap might have narrowed, but the fact that there isn’t even a consensus second or third player on the list tells you all you need to know.

Random Thoughts and Observations

When I heard that current Arkansas State coach Gus Malzahn was being hired away from the offensive coordinator position at Auburn last year, my initial thought was, “Gene Chizik: fired in five years.” He’s not getting that long. His record at Auburn was already sketchy at best when you remove the games involving top-10 picks Cam Newton and Nick Fairley. Saturday’s three-touchdown loss to Ole Miss dropped the Tigers to 1-5 and removed all doubt as to who’s the worst team in the SEC West. At Iowa State Chizik was 5-19 in two seasons; nothing in his career suggests he has any business continuing to coach at this level. But Lane Kiffin keeps getting work.

Before the season I opined that if Notre Dame was to go 12-0 with the daunting schedule they faced, the Irish should be in the BCS title game. That’s a position that was echoed by many analysts. However, with the way the season has played out, it’s hard to make that argument any longer. Oklahoma and USC, the two marquee opponents, have both been underwhelming, and Kansas State took some of the wind out of ND’s blowout of Miami (FL) by doing the same thing weeks earlier. That’s not to say the Irish couldn’t get to championship at 12-0, but they no longer have a leg up on the other potential undefeated teams they once did. Not playing a 13^th game may also hurt them.

Where coaches talk smack and awards are won in October

What a fun weekend. No dearth of quality games this time, no sir. Some questions were answered and some new ones were asked, such as, “Is Georgia really this bad?” and “How can the Big Ten have zero good teams?” It was an action-packed Saturday with tight finishes and statements made.

First, to the SEC, where the two top-10 matchups took place. Florida showed up big time at home and, as many people thought they might, upset LSU. This wasn’t exactly shocking given how bad the Tigers have looked of late, but it was still clearly an upset. How a team like LSU, with NFL-quality players all over the place, can be this weak offensively I’ll never understand. As I’ve said recently, we now know why Zach Mettenberger didn’t play last season. He’s awful, just like the past several iterations of LSU signal-callers.

For Florida, it caps a surprising start to the season, albeit one that began with sluggish performances in the first two games. The Gators still lack playmakers on offense, yet teams can sometimes win in college football with a strong defense and a reliable running game. That’s where the team’s lone elite (offensive) talent, RB Mike Gillislee, resides. Will it be enough to beat South Carolina? I doubt it. But Florida has improved a great deal.

The other SEC showdown was a slight disappointment. I had entertained the notion that Georgia was overrated – their defense certainly seemed mediocre – but I wasn’t expecting the clobbering South Carolina delivered Saturday night. Obviously, the Bulldogs are not a top-10 team. Obviously, the Gamecocks are a top-five team. That rankles me after my harsh reaction to their near-loss in the opener against Vandy, but they’ve gotten better in every aspect of the game since that night. Quarterback Connor Shaw has looked more comfortable every week and the defense is, of course, scary.

There were still other revelations this past week. Florida State fell victim to the FSU virus, a nasty bug that makes good teams lose to inferior foes. Seminoles, we hardly knew ye. Notre Dame slammed the lid on the explosive offense of Miami (FL), proving yet again that the Irish defense is for real. Ohio State put to rest any doubt that they are the Big Ten’s only decent team by manhandling Nebraska. And, oh yes, West Virginia responded in a huge way against Texas’ strong defense.

The significance of what happened in Austin can’t be overstated. In their first road game of the season and first-ever Big 12 road game, the Mountaineers came up big. They won their way, outscoring the Longhorns and holding UT off long enough to get the win. That’s an important development in this still-young season. The road ahead is far from easy, but the first hurdle has been cleared.

Next up: The Red River Shootout (I’ll call it that ‘til the day I die) and a pair of potential upsets in Louisville – Pitt and Kansas State – Iowa State lead the day. Later on, West Virginia hits the road again in another possible shootout with Texas Tech and Oregon State goes to BYU in a game with red-alert upset potential. USC also plays at nemesis Washington and South Carolina and LSU meet in another top-10 battle for both teams. The nightcap is in Shreveport, where top-25 opponents Texas A&M and Louisiana Tech could hit a hundred points combined. Not as good overall as last week, but there’s fun to be had.

Top 25

It’s worth noting that yes, I gave Michigan State a ringing endorsement just before the Spartans escaped near-certain doom against a terrible Indiana team. They’re gone. I was impressed enough with Florida to jump them up, but I left the Gators out of the top five because I’m still not sure. LSU might just be overrated. South Carolina can tell us this week.

1) Alabama

Back after a bye, rested and ready to continue Mizzou’s SEC misery. This could get ugly real quick. The Tigers don’t have nearly the line or the skill players to challenge the Crimson Tide defense and their own D is shoddy at best. Did I mention that they’ll be without QB James Franklin? Complacency is all that keeps this from being a blowout.

2) Oregon

Probably the most complete win of the season as the Ducks knocked another Pac-12 opponent out of the top 25. There’s a lot of speed and not just on the offense, which still seems slightly fuzzy. UO’s back seven (or eight, as scheme dictates) feed on must-throw situations and force a lot of turnovers. That could be key in the second half of the season.

3) South Carolina

They came, they saw… oh man. Even with the healthy amount of respect I had for the Gamecocks’ defense, they managed to surprise me. Say what you will about Georgia’s defense, but that offense is high-end and Carolina shut them down. Another big test this week against LSU; win this one and all that’s left to threaten this squad is Florida.

4) West Virginia

I can’t say enough about that Texas win. Very, very impressive. Geno Smith delivered again, the defense made plays when it mattered and the offense just did its thing. If WVU can survive the next couple of weeks, it may be time to realistically start thinking about exorcizing the demons of 2007.

5) Kansas State

The Wildcats led rival Kansas by only a touchdown at halftime Saturday and I wondered if K-State was about to get exposed. Then they went on a rampage in the second half, outscoring KU 35-0 (the only Jayhawks points came on a safety) and looking every bit like the top-five team we’ve come to know. The Big 12’s mega-showdown of the year comes against West Virginia in two weeks.

6) Florida

In a perfect world Florida would have moved up to number five, but I have doubts about LSU. If the Tigers lose again to South Carolina this week, this ranking will be accurate. For now, the Gators should be content with the fact that they’re winning without much of an offense.

7) Notre Dame

It wasn’t the margin against the Hurricanes, it was the single field goal allowed. Miami (FL) had led the entire country in scoring the previous two weeks, so seeing that three on the scoreboard was pretty stunning. The Fighting Irish still have a ton of issues offensively, true. The defense, on the other hand, is magnificent.

8) USC

Lost in the 10-point final margin was the comedy of errors the Trojans made against Utah in the first three minutes Thursday night. After that point SC won going away, 38-14. I don’t think they can hang for a full game with Oregon, but that’s true about a lot of teams. They should still win the South, which is a starting point.

9) LSU

A little bit of a charity grade this week. Would you trust the Tigers’ offense against South Carolina’s D? But if we’re going to say Florida is a top-five squad, then maybe LSU isn’t really so bad. If the Gamecocks come out and blast another top-10 opponent, we’ll know we’ve been duped on this team.

10) Florida State

As with LSU, a slight bump from where the Seminoles probably deserve to be ranked. However, FSU a) lost by one, b) on the road and c) played poorly doing so. There’s also the glaring fact that although Oregon State has had a charmed season thus far, there is NO WAY the Beavers are a top-10 team.

11) Oregon State

This has to be OSU’s ceiling. It’s been nice, but with starting QB Sean Mannion now out, it’s time to think realistically. This game at BYU would have been trouble at full strength. Now we’re talking on the road against that defense with a backup at QB? Not to mention OSU’s historic problems out of conference on the road. It would be a minor shock if the Beavers won this week.

12) Ohio State

The Buckeyes are an interesting case. You look at how the offense functions and it seems as if there’s no way they should put up the points they do. You look at the defense and, quite frankly, get underwhelmed compared to previous seasons. Yet when you look at the schedule, it’s hard to circle a game this team will lose. The Big Ten is down, but this is crazy year.

13) Oklahoma

As I said after the KSU loss, this week is what OU has been waiting for: a chance to put the naysayers in their places and return to Big 12 relevancy. The Sooners got back to business this week against Texas Tech and can continue their drive back to the BCS if they play a complete game against the Longhorns. They have to show up for four quarters, though.

14) Texas

Evenly matched rivals? That’s the best kind of college football game. I wasn’t completely sold on UT, as seen by my number 11 ranking last week, but they’re still a solid young team with a tough defense. That D needs to take the lesson WVU delivered last week to heart if they want to knock off Oklahoma, which they have the ability to do.

15) Georgia

Oh, Georgia. What was it I said in the preseason? Something about how last year’s 10 wins were a mirage, an inflated total against bad teams? Well, Saturday certainly held that to be true. The Bulldogs had no rhythm and no chance against the elite Carolina defense. Fortunately, Florida is the only other team on the schedule with that talent level.

16) Clemson

Another decent win, though these high-scoring games have to leave Tigers fans a little worried. Where’s the defense? The offense isn’t always going to score 40 points. Clemson should know that better than most teams after the way they played in the second half of last season.

17 Stanford

Rest assured, if I’d had room to drop Stanford, I would have. The Cardinal’s been very bad at different things in the past two weeks. Against Arizona it was defense, as the Wildcats romped to 48 points (and still somehow managed to give the game away). Stanford is 4-1 but that record isn’t fooling anybody.

18) Texas A&M

I’m skeptical of this squad’s wins, but if Florida really is a great team that three-point loss in the opener is pretty good. As far as mid-majors go, LTU is a great test this week. The Bulldogs let it fly on offense, so we’ll get a chance to see if the Aggie defense is SEC-caliber.

19) Boise State

Good win over Southern Miss with an explosive Fresno team on the way. Boise should win this game – I feel the Broncos’ athletes are still a bit much for the Bulldogs to handle – but if this turns into a shootout you never know. In general I’ve found BSU to be a little less than crisp this year, which is understandable given all the player turnover.

20) Louisville

I really hope for the Big East’s sake that Louisville used the week off to figure some things out. The Cardinals opened the season with 10 very good quarters and have followed that with 10 very average ones. The conference race starts now and Pitt has proven to be a dangerous (if wildly inconsistent) foe.

21) Oklahoma State

Just 2-2 and sitting on a bye, but I had them in my poll last week and I see no reason why they should drop out. The two losses (at Arizona and Texas) are both respectable and the schedule is about as breezy as the Big 12 allows, which should put less pressure on the team in the back half of the season. This ain’t over for the Cowboys by a long shot.

22) Rutgers

I will include the Scarlet Knights this week, even though I feel the same way about them as I do Cincinnati and Mississippi State. All three teams are 5-0 and none has played a single above-average opponent. The difference right now is that Rutgers is giving up only 10 points a game.

23) Arizona State

ASU is, in all likelihood, going to beat Colorado this week. That means the Sun Devils will be ranked when they host Oregon next Thursday. Do they have a shot? Hard to say. ASU has been so much better at home that anything is possible. For now they need to focus on the Buffs, though. Just ask Washington State.

24) Louisiana Tech

LTU and Ohio are the last two mid-majors left standing, as far as BCS chances go. I went with the Bulldogs over the Bobcats because the former have been a bit more impressive to this point. This week Tech hosts Texas A&M in a chance to get a program-defining win. The Aggies must be new to this SEC thing – you’re not supposed to go on the road to play out of conference. For shame!

25) Iowa State

A win over a then-ranked TCU team and a 4-1 record. It’s enough for now. A loss to KSU this week would drop the Cyclones right back out of the polls, but they’ve got a few things going for them. The game is in Ames, a notoriously windy and difficult place for visitors. ISU is a scrappy bunch and the defense is surprisingly stout, giving up fewer than 16 points per game. We’ll see if they’re for real.

Pac-12 Report

First, let’s get the craziest story out of the way. What has Cal been doing all season and what was with the Bears Saturday night? That was the Cal team I envisioned in my (sadly over-optimistic) preseason predictions. An efficient offense that takes advantage of its playmakers, a defense capable of locking teams down and a quality home-field advantage – why can’t this team play like that all the time? Cal has become one of the nation’s biggest enigmas, though you have to hope that a game with Wazzu this week will be the perfect thing to build confidence. Of course, it could also serve as a devastating step back that gets the Cougars back on track. We’ll have to watch to find out.

UCLA faces a crossroads of its own. Though a 4-2 start still has to be considered a positive, the 1-2 conference record bodes ill for the future. All of the next four games are winnable, but the last two (USC and Stanford) are probably out of this team’s reach. That makes getting a win against Utah this week critical. The next game is ASU, with the loser likely eliminated from the South race. I’m looking forward to that matchup.

The game of the past week was, no contest, Arizona at Stanford. I’m still at a loss to understand how the Wildcats gave up a 14-point fourth-quarter lead when they rolled up 600 yards and 48 points. Unfortunately, that can happen when you allow Josh Nunes to have a career game. No disrespect to the Cardinal QB, but I thought what this game really proved was that Stanford isn’t that good. They’ll get a chance to prove me wrong in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, ‘Zona has to be distraught. At .500 and 0-3 in conference, the ‘Cats are one or two plays away from being 5-1 and ranked in the top 15. This is certainly not a bad team, though the defense definitely needs to play better if they hope to make the postseason. There’s only one guaranteed victory (Colorado) in the final six games.

Oregon was excellent in the league’s only matchup of ranked teams, though the result was about what I expected after what LSU did to Washington. The Ducks have been the Pac-12’s clear number one team through the first half of the year. However, the remaining six games are much tougher.

The Huskies are just lacking players on offense. The defense has improved, but not enough to cover the void. The bad news is that the schedule from here on out isn’t easy. The good news is that even if UW falls to USC at home this week – a trip that has been truly horrifying for the Trojans of late – they’ll still be ahead of my preseason prediction of a 2-4 start.

SC had an awful first few minutes in Salt Lake City Thursday, then gradually ground the Utes into submission. I’m not ready to pronounce this squad a true rival for Oregon, but the Trojans can certainly build to that point in the next couple of weeks, provided they erase some bad memories against Washington on Saturday.

The big stories this week, though, will come from teams playing nonconference foes. Oregon State is visiting BYU and Stanford will face Notre Dame on the road. To be honest, I’d be surprised if either Pac-12 school won. BYU was going to be dicey even if OSU was healthy, and QB Sean Mannion is out. Now Cody Vaz is facing the nation’s number one rushing defense, on the road. This just seems like a recipe for disaster. The best-case scenario outside of a win is to keep everyone healthy.

Stanford’s D will keep them in the game against the anemic Irish offense, but I really don’t see Nunes having a good game against the host’s powerful defense. Look for this game to be slow and low-scoring. Even though this is a game in which the Cardinal have the edge offensively, I don’t think it will be enough. This week could hurt the conference’s national reputation.

On the positive side, Arizona State should beat Colorado Thursday to jump into the rankings, which will make next Thursday’s showdown with Oregon very exciting. Who knows, if Stanford or OSU can eke out a road win we may end up looking at this weekend very differently.

Heisman Watch

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

All Geno all the time. Mr. Smith tossed another four TD’s against Texas without a pick, has completed more than 80 percent of his passes while INCREASING his yards per attempt (unheard of) and faces no real challengers at this point. This award has been won on less production than that in a full season. It’s going to take a collapse for him to fail to win it now.

Random Thoughts and Observations

SPURRIER! The HBC was up to his old (and hilarious) tricks last week when he uncorked this gem about moving the South Carolina-Georgia game from its traditional week two placement: “I sort of always liked playing them that second game because you could always count on them having two or three key players suspended.” As Jon Stewart might say, “Yo-ho!” Georgia had no response, because the Bulldogs DID have four players suspended in week two. Tip o’ the hat to you, Spurrier.

Notre Dame’s special uniforms finally saw the light of day (or night, as fate would have it) in Chicago against Miami (FL) this week. Yes, they were just as hideous as we expected. I won’t link to them, because I’m not a sadist. Whichever designer thought a washed-out, backwards leprechaun and a 60-40 blue/gold split on the helmets needs to fired. Immediately.

The NCAA announced today that their sanctions on Boise State would be upheld, trashing the institution’s credibility even further. It’s comforting to know that with more pressing issues at dozens of schools around the country, college football’s governing body could take the time to punish a mid-major for winning too many games and upsetting the sport’s good ol’ boy power structure tiny violations.

Next week marks the sort-of kind-of midpoint of the season, as pretty much everyone will have played six games by then. In other words, it’s hump week. Time to gather momentum and start careening to the finish line.