Into a bold new October we go

It was another thoroughly enjoyable weekend around the country. There was drama at all three standard game times (9:00, 12:30 and 3:30 PST) and in every conference. If you got up early, you saw the back-and-forth shootout that was North Carolina-Georgia Tech along with the ugly slugfest of Pittsburgh-Notre Dame. Just after noon the best matchups kicked off, including a trio of ranked-versus-ranked games topped by Oklahoma State’s fantastic comeback over Texas A&M.

As the afternoon wore on we saw close finishes at California-Washington and Kansas State-Miami (FL). Those were followed by the  primetime games (Missouri-Oklahoma and LSU-West Virginia), both of which were interesting but never really in doubt. However, the day did end with a pair of shootouts in the desert, as Arizona State toppled USC and Oregon held off a furious charge by Arizona.

Thankfully, this weekend saw the quietest off-field action of the young season. Yes, the SEC has now officially added Texas A&M and says it doesn’t plan to grab another team (because 13 teams really makes sense, right?), but that felt like an inevitability at this point. But that was about it. No scandals broken, no crazy coach interviews, no new teams bolting for other leagues. For once the focus was on football, and rightfully so, because this week was just as good as every other has been in 2011.

The one sour note was the unfortunate result of the Toledo-Syracuse contest, where Syracuse’s erroneously “good” PAT cost Toledo a win in regulation in a game the Rockets lost in overtime. The MAC school was apparently demanding to be awarded the victory this week, as the Big East acknowledged its replay official had made a mistake. However, MAC commissioner Jon Steinbrecher has said that NCAA rules do not allow scores to be changed after games are declared over. I think that’s the right attitude to take. While Toledo should have won, bad calls happen all the time, and sometimes someone gets unfairly punished. Retroactively changing the outcome of games is a bad idea.

Top 25

1) Oklahoma

I think Missouri is a fringe top-25 team. The Tigers will be ranked again at some point this year. OU should thus get credit for a relatively decent win. The Sooners’ problem seems to be consistency. I saw the AP Poll has dropped Oklahoma from the top spot; I don’t understand that. Missouri and West Virginia are equal in my mind.

2) Alabama

I would have jumped LSU past Alabama… but once again, look at who the two teams played this week. Arkansas, while overrated, is certainly better than West Virginia. So I can’t justify dropping Bama any more than Oklahoma. It’s illogical. The Crimson Tide should roll Florida this week without much trouble.

3) LSU

Of the top three teams, LSU has the best win (Oregon) and the best body of work. But… I thought last week that the Tigers were number three. I think it can be argued that West Virginia was in fact the weakest opponent between the three this weekend. Based on that, it makes no sense to move them up like the 28 AP voters who suddenly did. Really? You thought WVU was that good?

4) Boise State

Honestly… I think Boise might be the best team in the country. Their competition isn’t close to the kind the Big Three will face. But looking at the Broncos, I can’t find a weakness. And considering how quarterback-driven college football has become, it doesn’t make sense to go against Kellen Moore, who outclasses the signal-callers at the other three schools.

5) Wisconsin

The Badgers finally get a worthy opponent this week in Nebraska, though exactly how worthy the Cornhuskers are is still in question. With the game in Madison, I expect Wisconsin to deliver a sharp “welcome to the conference” to the Huskers. But could this simply be a preview of the Big 10 title game?

6) Oklahoma State

If OSU plays the way they did in the first half against Texas A&M, they’re barely a top-25 team. If they play the way they did in the second half – when they could have scored another two touchdowns and run away with a win – the Cowboys are a legit BCS title contender. The Weedon-to-Blackmon connection is magic, and with the defense forcing turnovers like it did against the Aggies, OSU is a darkhorse.

7) Stanford

Moving the Cardinal down isn’t indicative of their play (Stanford was off last week). It’s more a sign of how good I think Oklahoma State can be, although it didn’t help that Arizona, Stanford’s best win, got pasted yet again. I do wonder about this team. I don’t think they’re as good as the 2010 version. Then again, neither is Oregon.

8) Oregon

Which team is Oregon? The one that shredded Arizona’s defense and held down its offense en route to a 35-3 lead? Or the one that gave up three unanswered touchdowns on back-to-back-to-back possessions, turning a blowout into a scary situation? The good news for the Ducks was that UO finally got the ground game going. That’s going to be crucial as their young receivers grow.

9) Clemson

Clemson’s victory over FSU was closer than it should have been, but the Tigers are still off and running at 4-0. I’ve been really impressed with this offense so far, though the defense does have some things to improve on. I jumped Clemson all the way into the top 10 because I think they’ve been much better than Virginia Tech so far this year and should beat the Hokies this week.

10) Virginia Tech

In most years, the idea of an explosive offense getting the better of VT would be ludicrous. Ever since Stanford torched Tech in last season’s Orange Bowl, though, it’s been a possibility. The Hokies have played solid defensively in 2011, but they’ve yet to face an offense half as powerful and diverse as Clemson’s. VT needs this win at home to prove that they’re still the ACC’s top dogs.

11) Texas A&M

I didn’t drop A&M too far because of the closeness of their loss. But ouch. Somehow the Aggies turned what would have been a program-boosting win over Oklahoma State into a gut-wrenching loss. If the team was hoping to make a statement in their final Big 12 season, they sent the worst message possible to the SEC: we’re soft. That was one of the worst collapses in recent memory.

12) Nebraska

Well, here you are, Nebraska. You wanted to play in a bigger, better conference. You wanted out of the Big 12, a league you never loved. You wanted to turn your nose up at your former rivals by joining the Big 10. Here’s your reward: a night game on the road against powerhouse Wisconsin. Enjoy.

13) South Carolina

What’s up with South Carolina? In the 21-3 win over hapless Vanderbilt, QB Stephen Garcia threw four picks and stud running back Marcus Lattimore was held to less than 100 yards while the offense scored just twice. If the Gamecocks keep playing like this, they’ll have no shot at a conference title.

14) Baylor

I know I’ve talked about Robert Griffin III a lot, but this is getting ridiculous. Through three games, he’s completed 85 percent of his passes. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns against just 12 incompletions. I still think of Baylor as a young, up-and-coming team that can’t beat the best Big 12 squads, but Griffin’s play is so impossibly efficient that the Bears could be dangerous.

15) South Florida

USF hasn’t exactly had to work very hard since their season-opening upset of Notre Dame. As with Boise State, though, that might not be because of the schedule. I believe the Bulls are pretty good, though we’ll see just how good once they enter Big East play. If the team is worthy of a top-15 ranking, they should dominate in this conference.

16) Georgia Tech

Ever though the teams I had ranked above Tech last week won, I still had to move the Yellow Jackets up. Shrugging off a quality challenge from North Carolina (as well as a significant matchup problem on the line), Tech kept its offense churning and burning. They should have beaten the Tar Heels by a wider margin and have emerged as a real contender in the ACC.

17) TCU

It’s hard to know what to make of TCU. On the one hand, you have a team who was tied with Portland State at 3-3 with two minutes to play before halftime. Then you have a team who scored three times in just more than a minute and went on 52-3 run through the next two-plus quarters. TCU is talented but needs to learn how to play more consistently.

18) Houston

Last week saw another highly overmatched opponent go down. No surprise, but in general my warm feeling about Houston before the season has started to cool. The Cougars’ offense should be able to play with anyone, but that doesn’t make them BCS-worthy. It seems that Houston is always in danger of laying a multi-turnover egg and going down.

19) Arizona State

That was the ASU team we should have seen against Illinois. Tough, physical and able to respond to adversity. Where previous Sun Devil teams would have left the door open for a late USC comeback, the 2011 version slammed it shut. At the least, ASU should perform great at home this year. Now it’s a matter of finding some consistency on the road.

20) Ohio State

Colorado wasn’t much of a challenge, obviously. The fact that Miami lost just a week after beating the Buckeyes stings, but the Hurricanes probably had an emotional letdown. I’m still fairly confident in this defense, which can cause major issues for the – let’s face it – somewhat impotent Big 10 attacks. Gotta get that passing game going, though.

21) Michigan

It’s been another September to remember for Michigan fans. Unfortunately, as the Wolverines have shown in the past few years, it’s not all about September. We’ll see if Big blue can continue this run once they jump into conference play. I have a feeling that the mismatched parts of the offense aren’t going to look very good when they face a decent defense.

22) Florida State

I think this is probably too low for the Seminoles. They’re 2-2, but they lost close games to a pair of very good teams. I mean, do you think FSU couldn’t beat Michigan? Ohio State? I’d bet on the ‘Noles in those games. The health of E.J. Manuel is going to be critical, though. FSU won’t hold up over the course of a season with a freshman at QB.

23) Texas

All right, Texas. If I’m going to rank you, get out there and win some games. Starting with that team who notched their first-ever win over you last year: Iowa State. And really, the Longhorns had better get this one, because the next two games – against the Oklahoma schools – could leave them battered and bruised.

24) Arkansas

Arkansas showed a little more fight early on against Bama than I expected before getting steamrolled. There’s definitely some SEC-caliber talent on this team, but I just don’t see them performing very well given their schedule. Apart from the rigors of the SEC West, the Razorbacks still have to take on Texas A&M. I guess it will be a preview of next season, eh?

25) Florida

With all the losses sustained by ranked teams, I’m willing to bring the Gators into my top 25. But their consensus number 12 poll ranking is astonishing. Is anybody watching this team? Their four wins are against teams with a combined record of 4-9 who have a single win over a BCS-conference school (the Big East's Cincinnati)! The next two games are Alabama and LSU, who I expect will put an end to this charade.

Pac-12 Thoughts

The North race has been Oregon and Stanford all along. But Saturday’s Washington-Cal game showed that it’s possible neither the Ducks nor the Cardinal will make it through the conference unscathed. The November 12^th showdown in Palo Alto should decide the division, but Oregon plays Washington the week before (in Seattle) and Stanford faces Cal the next week. From what I saw of the Bears and Huskies this weekend, they’re both ready to give a fierce challenge to the Pac-12’s top teams.

Arizona’s unfortunate schedule combined with ASU finally getting the job done against USC seemed to signal that it’s the Sun Devils’ year in the South. Starting out 0-2 in conference play really puts the Wildcats in a hole, making this week’s USC game a must-win. Utah is still out there too, but based on the Utes’ performance in their conference opener I’m not confident they’re up to the task of beating either Arizona school.

USC has obviously started a bit of a downhill slide, which is to be expected given the NCAA penalties. Can UCLA take advantage? Rick Neuheisel’s job depends on it, for good reason. If the Bruins can’t overtake their L.A. rivals in this season, when are they ever going to do it? Looking at UCLA’s schedule, I think six wins is doable. Beating WSU and Colorado at home is imperative, then if the Bruins can just beat SC and sneak out one more win, they’ll be in a bowl. But based on this season’s early returns, they’ll have to improve to make it there.

I think WSU still has a shot at a bowl as well, but a lot rides on this week’s date with Colorado. Win, and the Cougs could ride the momentum to a road victory against UCLA (whom they nearly beat last year) the following week. From there, at 4-1, WSU would need only a win over Oregon State (whom they did beat last year) in Seattle and one upset to reach the postseason. At some point QB Jeff Tuel should return as well, which would improve the Cougars’ chances down the stretch.

As far as teams counted out of bowl contention right now, I see only two for sure: Colorado and Oregon State. Colorado has a brutal schedule and isn’t very good anyway. The Beavers… well, I don’t know what’s wrong with OSU. The UCLA loss hurt.

In previous years, you could count on the Beavs to get up when they had to and beat the teams necessary to avoid letting the season spiral out of control. From 2006 onward, the OSU would rebound after tough starts, upset a couple of quality opponents, and finish the year strong. Ever since the midway point of last year, though (actually, right about the UCLA game), something has been off. The talent level of the team, never a strength, has been decimated by injuries. But OSU managed to work around that in the past. It’s anyone’s guess as to why this team has looked so bad.

Heisman* Watch

*You know how this goes.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

The competition has yet to be a roadblock, I’ll say that. But how can you not be awed by the accuracy of this guy? Given his next two opponents (K-State, Iowa State), it’s entirely possible that Griffin could continue throwing the rock at an 80 percent or better rate. That would be extraordinary.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

If you want to talk about efficiency, you can’t forget Moore. He’s up there at nearly 80 percent passing too and has a nice 12-2 TD-to-INT ratio thus far. Let’s see how he fares this week against Nevada, who gave up six TD passes to Oregon’s Darron Thomas. This could be fun to watch.

Random Thoughts and Observations

There are a couple of mid-major teams currently flying below the radar who are actually pretty good and might make a splash later in the season. Both have faced nonconference gauntlets early but both also fared well in their losses. I’m referring to Tulsa and Toledo, two teams that could very well win their respective leagues after difficult starts.

Both teams lost three times in September. Tulsa played on the road against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. The Golden Hurricane gave up a lot of points, but averaged 22 points a game themselves. Faced with their less-rigorous Conference USA slate, Tulsa could make some noise and eventually gain a national ranking. The offense – long what the Golden Hurricane have been known for – is definitely there. Additionally, Tulsa gets two of their three hardest remaining opponents (Houston and SMU) at home.

Toledo dropped games at Ohio State and Syracuse and at home versus Boise State. Although Ohio State isn’t what we thought they were, the Rockets played all of their games closer than Tulsa did. Toledo had a first down on the Buckeyes’ 15 trailing by just five at the end of the game and failed to score. As I noted earlier, the team was cheated out of a win in the Carrier Dome (a really loud stadium) this past weekend. And though the Rockets lost by 25 to Boise, the score of that game wasn’t indicative of how close it really was. Toledo had multiple turnovers in the red zone and dropped a wide-open touchdown in the second half. The MAC is easier than the Conference USA, so look out for the Rockets.

The ACC is NOT screwing around

Some nice action this weekend was sadly overshadowed once again by too much off-field clutter. Rather than building excitement toward the evening’s Oklahoma-Florida State matchup, the nation’s mood was grim, centered on Syracuse and Pittsburgh’s stunning bolt from the Big East to the ACC. This has been a theme all this year and in the season’s opening weeks – uncertainty off the field stealing the spotlight from on-field action.

And it’s a shame, because there were several more genuinely entertaining games this past Saturday. Oklahoma-FSU, Auburn-Clemson, Navy-South Carolina (a telling game, that one) and West Virginia-Maryland all went down to the wire. Most of the major conferences came out with at least one or two nice victories, but there were some disappointments too.

The Big 10 and Pac-12 both came out of the weekend looking pretty bad, even in their various victories. There might not be a single championship-worthy team in either conference, and I’m including Wisconsin, Stanford and Oregon in that assessment. Penn State was lucky to escape Pitt. Nebraska was as unimpressive as a team can be in a double-digit win (over Washington). Stanford and Arizona played a listless first half. Michigan State got blindsided by Notre Dame. Ohio State was crushed at Miami (FL). UCLA was embarrassed by Texas. Arizona State played sloppy (again) and lost to Illinois. The results were ugly.

But, fortunately for the two leagues, any and all competitive problems were forgotten in the wake of what appeared to be, at least for a few days, the death of the Big 12 and Big East conferences. I’ll talk about the new conference realignment later; for now it seems safe to exhale, as Armageddon has been narrowly averted again. But I’m sure we haven’t seen the end of the madness.

Top 25

1) Oklahoma

I wasn’t sold on Florida State, but the Sooners deserve credit for battling back in a tough environment (how long has it been since Doak sounded like that?!) and winning a low-scoring slugfest. The last time OU had an offense of this caliber, they couldn’t win close and ugly. This time, they got it done, which is enough to take over the top spot.

2) Alabama

The development of A.J. McCarron is encouraging for the Crimson Tide. It just seems weird that Bama has a far inferior quarterback this week against Arkansas, yet I’m picking them to win handily. Such is the fortune of having a great defense. As long as Alabama takes care of business the next two weeks, they should be undefeated going into their showdown with LSU.

3) LSU

Did anyone really expect the Tigers to have trouble with Mississippi State? Moreover, did anyone actually think MSU was a top-25 team? I’ve been watching the Bulldogs longer than most SEC teams and in my estimation they’ve merely moved up from doormat to decent. So, no big pat on the head for LSU doing what they should have done against an overhyped team.

4) Boise State

As it turns out, Toledo is pretty good. Ohio State needn’t be embarrassed any longer. But additionally, it turns out Boise State is really, really good. Much better than OSU. Kellen Moore is a legit Heisman candidate, and the Broncos’ stable of running backs might be the best in the country (with Oregon’s Kenjon Barner out, this is a dead heat). Is this finally the year BSU gets the breaks that land them in the title game?

5) Wisconsin

I moved the Badgers over Stanford because they pasted a team I think isn’t bad in Northern Illinois and because Stanford didn’t look very good for a while at Arizona. Another ho-hum 300-yard passing performance by Russell Wilson and continued excellence on the ground ensured the victory. This team is clearly the class of the Big 10.

6) Stanford

Very interesting, that first half was. It was strange seeing the Cardinal so out of sync. The team predictably picked it up in the second half and left ‘Zona in the dust, but Shane Skov going down is going to kill Stanford. The guy was a beast and meant everything to their defense. It’s not hyperbole to say that his injury may cost them a conference championship and a shot at the BCS title.

7) Texas A&M

I like Texas A&M a lot, but I fear the Aggies may be in over their heads with Oklahoma State. Fortunately for A&M, they got last week off (so to speak, against Idaho), whereas OSU had to play Tulsa after midnight because of a weather delay. But even at home, the Aggies had better come to play. That Cowboy offense is scary.

8) Oregon

The second of Oregon’s patsies passed by without much of a fight and the Duck defense played a lot better this week. I still have concerns about whether this team is really elite, but I suppose that should be answered Saturday night against Arizona. The Wildcats are beaten and bruised from their previous two top-10 opponents. An elite team would squash them here.

9) Oklahoma State

If the Cowboys knock off A&M on the road this week I’m fully prepared to jump them three or four spots. The issue is going to be unit matchups. I see OSU as a team with a brilliant offense and an average defense. The Aggies are more balanced on both sides of the ball. Like an arena league squad, the Cowboys just need to get enough stops to allow the offense to take over.

10) Virginia Tech

Another sluggish start for the Hokies. I know their schedule does them a lot of favors, but Tech has to be careful. They could easily lose either of their first two conference games (Clemson and Miami (FL)) if they don’t respect them. Clemson in particular is looking like a real challenger. I’m still not convinced that either Tech’s offense or defense is that good.

11) Arkansas

Three home games against three bad teams… the season’s first road game… a great Alabama defense… is it just me, or does this game look really ominous? Not to mention that the next game is against Texas A&M, who will either be flying high after beating Oklahoma State or looking to take their frustrations out on someone after losing to the Cowboys. Oh boy.

12) Florida State

I didn’t drop FSU too far, because in truth the Seminoles did pass the most important test against Oklahoma. Short of winning, Florida State had one task Saturday: win back the nation’s respect. I think they did it. I know they have mine. It’s been years since I’ve seen FSU compete with an elite team for four quarters. They have to keep playing this way to stay relevant, but it’s fair to say that Florida State is back.

13) Nebraska

Nebraska is going to keep sliding down my rankings until they prove that they can actually be great for a full game. Both Fresno State and Washington had chances to beat the Cornhuskers. That should be unacceptable for a team allegedly in the hunt for a national championship. If they keep playing at this level someone is going to bring them down to earth. Hard.

14) South Carolina

Were announcers really celebrating the Gamecocks’ last-gasp escape at home against Navy? Look, I like Navy a lot, but they’re just not a great football team. How in the world anyone can look at South Carolina and think they’re a top-10 team is beyond me. The offense is Marcus Lattimore plus whatever Stephen Garcia happens to contribute that particular day. The defense wasn’t very good against the Midshipmen either.

15) Baylor

The Bears are only 2-0, but with several teams ahead of them falling, they’ll get a chance to show what they can do with expectations. I’m not confident in Baylor’s chances, but it should be interesting to see how the team performs now that people expect them to play well. I can’t remember that ever happening before.

16) South Florida

USF is destined to stay below the radar for a while, but looking at their schedule, I was struck by something I hadn’t noticed before: the Bulls could win every game they have left. That doesn’t mean I think they actually will run the table, but it’s not out of the question either. If they get past Pitt, they could really go on a nice run.

17) Clemson

The win over Auburn wasn’t everything (though the Tigers’ performance in the last three quarters was certainly impressive); rather, this is an admission of oversight on my part. I hadn’t taken Clemson too seriously, but there is clearly a lot of talent on that roster. If Tajh Boyd continues to play like he did against Auburn, look out.

18) USC

Well, I guess I’ve been suckered in by the Trojans. SC turned it on and left Syracuse in the dust the way they should have done with their first two opponents. Next up are the two best remaining teams in the South: Arizona State and Arizona. Could USC go undefeated in division play but be ineligible for the Pac-12 title game? I’m sure the league office hopes not.

19) West Virginia

That wild, close win over Maryland told me everything I needed to know. Unless the Mountaineers show a whole lot more this week than they have so far this season, they’re going to get smashed by LSU. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t still win the Big East, mind you, but losing sure won’t help their confidence any.

20) TCU

A curiously slow start against Louisiana-Monroe again raises questions about the Horned Frogs. Are they for real or not? Welcome to the rollercoaster that has been TCU’s 2011 season so far. I really can’t say what we have in this team, though it’s fair to guess that we probably won’t find out this week against Portland State.

21) Houston

I kept the Cougars in the rankings but was very concerned about their near-loss to Louisiana Tech. Houston is simply better than that and the team won’t get any respect if they can’t dominate against lesser foes. I hope the upcoming start of the Conference USA schedule will startle the Cougars into being the team they can be if they try.

22) Ohio State

OSU’s defense wore down against Miami (FL), but it’s still clearly one of the best in the country. The problems are all on offense: the backs and receivers aren’t as explosive as they have been, and the passing game is just pitiful. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, this situation is probably going to get worse before it gets better.

23) Michigan

No, I still don’t think the Wolverines are that good, and no, Denard Robinson still can’t pass to save his life. On the other hand, the defense has already come a long way from the Rich Rodriguez era. That’s a promising sign as Michigan enters conference play. First up, though – a dangerous San Diego State squad.

24) Georgia Tech

Words cannot express my joy at what I saw out of my Yellow Jackets against Kansas. It was merely one of the most explosive and dominant offensive performances of the past century, as the Ramblin’ Wreck careened to a glorious 600 yards rushing on a 12-yard-per-carry average. At 3-0, this team has a chance to make a statement against North Carolina this week.

25) Texas

The fact that Texas beat the same UCLA squad Houston did – but more impressively – is the sole reason the Longhorns make this list. I still have little to no faith in the QB situation, and the team seems to still be uncharacteristically reloading despite a down year in 2010. If they can ride out this rough patch, though, the Horns might be good by season’s end.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Not a whole lot to say this week. It looks like Oregon State will be getting James Rodgers back, but I’m of a mixed opinion on that. Should he really come back now? Or even this season? Is it worth it when the Beavers look to be headed for another bowl-less year? More importantly, will he be the same player? Unfortunately, I have my doubts. I think Rodgers may be in the same boat as former Oregon back Jeremiah Johnson: able to return, but a shell of his former self. (Note: Rodgers’ “shell,” not unlike Johnson’s, could probably still be formidable.)

Utah looked amazing against BYU; perhaps there’s hope for the South yet! Because the USC loss looked bad but was meaningless in the standings, the Utes just have to beat the Arizona schools to make the Pac-12 championship. Do you think they can’t pull that off? Have you seen Arizona and ASU? Given Utah’s propensity to create turnovers (a ridiculous seven against BYU), it’s not a crazy idea at all.

Speaking of Arizona State… now there’s the Dennis Erickson team I know and love! Let’s see: outgaining an inferior opponent on the road – check. Turning the ball over multiple times – check. Around a hundred yards in penalties – you got it. And thus the Sun Devils lost for the first time in 2011. Boy, did I call that one or what? Unbelievable. ASU should play in the Pac-12 title game this season, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether they can actually get there.

Heisman* Watch

*Excluding Andrew Luck, etc., etc.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Stats against FCS teams shouldn’t really count, so the TCU game is still all we have to go on with Griffin. It’s enough. He’s great. If he’s only half as good as he was against the Horned Frogs, he’ll still be spectacular.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

You can say a lot about Moore’s competition, but eventually that argument loses weight. Moore is going to become the NCAA’s all-time winning QB this season, he’s going to put up some incredible numbers yet again, and he’s probably the most accurate passer outside of Luck. He’s beaten all the elite teams he’s played and dominated.

Random Thoughts and Observations

You can blame Texas A&M for being petulant. You can blame Larry Scott for getting the superconference ball rolling in the first place. You can blame Pitt and Syracuse for bailing for greener pastures. But you can’t blame the ACC for doing what was best for itself. In the most surprising realignment development yet, the one BCS conference everyone saw as an afterthought made the biggest move.

I think it’s safe to say everyone saw the Pac-12 and SEC as the major players as the national landscape continued to adjust. The Big 10, it was assumed, would follow suit once those two leagues upped the ante to 16 teams. Logically, the ACC would have to fight it out with the Big East to survive as one of the four superconferences, though I definitely thought the ACC would win that battle.

Now? Forget the Big East. The conference may yet survive the defections of two of its flagship members, but it simply has no hope to compete anymore with the other BCS leagues on the football stage. The ACC has now successfully raided the Big East twice, with more schools (Connecticut, Rutgers) potentially on the way. The SEC might yet look to snatch up West Virginia, too. The remaining members of the Big East have to be terrified for their own futures.

The news that the Pac-12 has decided to remain at a dozen schools looks to have brought the Big 12 back from the dead again (and credit the conference for not compromising its principles by inviting Texas, even though the Longhorns would have been a boon to revenue). Somehow, someway, the Big 12 lives to fight another day. And of course, in doing so, this in turn may have saved the Big East, which could theoretically invite a couple of Conference USA schools (ECU, who I think is a great fit, has already applied). The Big East is also heavily considering all three of the service academies, which could work for Army and Navy but not Air Force.

I’m happy with those results, because I’m a traditionalist at heart and want to see all of the conferences survive. However, having said that, I still have to applaud the ACC and give it an internet-worthy tip o’ the cap. Well played, sir. Well played. The ACC made two major moves in the last few weeks – one quiet, the other not so much – to permanently crush the Big East as a potential rival, shift the national spotlight to itself and ensure that it wouldn’t be the forgotten party in the next round of realignment.

First, the members of the league agreed to quadruple the buyout for every school to a pricey $20 million. This ensured that if the ACC itself got raided by the SEC, it would cost the departing member(s) dearly. Then it clearly went in under the radar – while everyone was talking about Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Texas – to gauge Pitt and Syracuse’s interest. This culminated in last weekend’s announcement that oh, by the way, two of the most important members of the Big East were jumping ship. Before the sputtering Big East could even react, the ACC members had already voted in the Orange and Panthers. For that kind of efficiency to take place, the two schools and their new conference had to have been in talks for some time. Don’t think for a second that this was an overnight decision.

The final count? The ACC put a knife into the Big East’s back (and twisted it), spooked the Pac-12 out of making a potentially incredibly profitable decision and put the SEC on notice that it’s no longer the biggest, baddest conference in the East. Oh, and by accelerating the demise of their now-crippled rival, the ACC dramatically increased its opportunity to one day land Notre Dame. This wasn’t conference realignment, it was a series of calculated, mob-style hits. Lesson learned: never, ever underestimate the ACC again.

And as a bonus, ACC member Georgia Tech last weekend played the most perfect offensive football I’ve ever seen. A dozen yards a carry on 50 rushes with only seven passing attempts (two of which went for touchdowns) is unheard of in today’s game. This was purist football to the nth-degree. The triple-option scheme confused and flattened the Kansas defense in a way only the option attack can. I appreciate all forms of offense (and there are so many today), but I hold that the best collegiate offense ever designed is still the option. Georgia Tech isn’t a great team that was playing a bad one. The Jayhawks and Yellow Jackets are pretty evenly matched. But Tech’ supreme command of their offense overwhelmed the Kansas defense. I encourage everyone to check out a replay on ESPN3. It’s worth a look. Not unlike the bold new ACC.

Well that was fun

Nothing earth-shattering in the top 25 this week, but the rest of the country sure made up for it. For the second straight week, there was a wild Friday night thriller, and that was before the outrageous shootouts that were Georgia-South Carolina, Mississippi State-Auburn and Notre Dame-Michigan. I mean, how absurd were those games? How much excitement can one weekend possibly supply? This last weekend epitomized what makes college football great.

At the same time, though, all of these crazy finishes left something to be desired. Namely, defense. It wasn’t just the football purists who shed tears for their sport this week. Seriously, can’t anyone even slow down an offense these days? I would hope that the results of the two aforementioned SEC contests would finally put to rest the myth that Southern teams play better defense than anyone, but we know that’s probably never going to happen. But how dense do you have to be to not see it? SEC offenses aren’t exactly known for their productivity. Here’s how many points those four teams gave up in their collective eight games thus far: 35, 45, 37, 42, 38, 34, 41 and 14. Some rock-solid SEC defense there, eh?

Or, rather, is it that elite SEC defenses – just like elite defenses around the nation – are better than the rest of their weaker conference counterparts? Yes, some SEC teams play outstanding defense. LSU and Alabama are probably the two best defensive teams in the country. But to apply their greatness freely to the rest of the conference without looking at the truth of the matter is to aggressively ignore reality.

By the way, my Georgia-South Carolina rankings prediction from last week unfortunately couldn’t come to be because Georgia really is that overrated. However, we got a perfect illustration of what I was referring to when (unranked) Auburn upset 16^th-ranked Mississippi State and surprise, surprise! – both teams were ranked the next morning. Because God forbid we admit that MSU isn’t really that good. No, better for the voters to cover themselves by ranking both teams, even though Auburn definitively proved last week that they aren’t that good when they luckily escaped a terrible Utah State squad.

But I rag on the SEC enough (and truly, the SEC West is the best division in the sport). Besides, the “worst defense” award doesn’t go to any of those schools. No, the worst defense of the week – nay, the young season (and possibly of all time) – was on display in Ann Arbor, where Michigan and Notre Dame honored the first night game at the Big House in the most ironic way possible, donning throwback uniforms on the very evening both teams decided to not play any defense. Knute Rockne and Bo Schembechler would have been appalled.

Of course, at the expense of defense, we got to see one of the most exciting college football finishes in recent memory. It was as if both teams’ secondaries just lost their collective minds. Have you ever seen so many wide-open receivers running downfield? It was a monumental combination of errors and incompetence. But it sure made for great viewing.

Top 25

1) Alabama

The Crimson Tide’s defense is superb, but for the first time I’m worried about their offense. The complete lack of a reliable quarterback in Tuscaloosa is going to hurt at some point, just as LSU will discover. The difference is that Nick Saban is a very good coach.

2) Oklahoma

Seems a little unfair that Oklahoma got to take week two off to get ready for FSU, but the Seminoles will just have to deal. I considered moving the Sooners up to the top spot this week because of their vast QB advantage over Bama, but it didn’t feel right given that OU had a bye. If they hammer FSU, though, that might change.

3) LSU

LSU predictably sleepwalked through their first post-Oregon game. Next up: recently wounded Mississippi State, who blew their shot to make an important conference-opening statement. Though even the mediocre Chris Relf presents an upgrade over Tigers QB Jarrett Lee, I expect LSU’s defense to win the day once again.

4) Boise State

How much can you say about the Broncos? Unless there’s a huge upset or someone important gets hurt, there’s almost nothing to write about. BSU will probably continue to win and win big. There is an interesting challenge this Friday against a game Toledo team who took Ohio State to the brink, though.

5) Stanford

That 10-point halftime lead was a bit worrisome, but the Cardinal did put the hammer down in the second half. Andrew Luck throwing a pick-six was a little jarring too. No matter. This week the team starts their conference schedule with a school, Arizona, who they blasted last year.

6) Wisconsin

I was tempted to move the Badgers to number five for a minute. Then I remembered that unimpressive first-half showing against a bad Oregon State defense and decided it would be prudent to wait another week to make that call. If nothing else, the Beavers showed that anyone can sell out to stop the run and be competitive with Wisconsin.

7) Texas A&M

A&M will likely wake up sometime in the second half this Saturday to put down Idaho. The Aggies’ minds are going to be on next week’s opponent, Oklahoma State. I’m really getting amped for that game, as it will announce which team will be the front-runner to challenge Oklahoma for the Big 12 title.

8) Oregon

Dropping 69 on Nevada demonstrated that, once again, it’s only the best defenses that can keep Oregon down. Do I think the Ducks are anywhere near last season’s level yet? No. But fortunately for them, they’ve got another couple of weeks to work things out. Even the conference opener at Arizona should be easier than expected, because the Wildcats will be in the middle of a horrendous stretch against three straight top-10 foes.

9) Virginia Tech

So did the Hokies beat East Carolina more or less impressively than South Carolina did? Both of the bird-mascot schools trailed the Pirates at some point, though Tech won a slugfest while South Carolina won a shootout. In the end, I dropped VT one rung because I seriously doubt they could match up with Oregon.

10) Oklahoma State

I’m ready to believe, Cowboys. Now don’t do something stupid, like losing to dangerous Tulsa this week en route to that big showdown with Texas A&M. There a lot of potential for fireworks both of the next two games, given the nature of OSU’s defense. The offense just can’t afford to be off.

11) Florida State

I’ve been rather harsh about FSU’s legitimacy. Now they finally get a chance to show what they can do when they host Oklahoma this week. While there’s ACC pride on the line, I really think this is even a bigger game for the FSU program. The Seminoles desperately want to be the team they used to be, and they need this win.

12) Nebraska

The Huskers, like many BCS teams over the past dozen-odd years, took Fresno State too lightly and almost paid for it. Taylor Martinez was exposed yet again as a receiver playing QB, which might eventually be the reason Nebraska fails to win the Big 10. I don’t see how they can hope to beat Wisconsin with him.

13) Arkansas

I’m very fond of Arkansas, but it kind of feels like we’re just waiting until they play a decent team and get crushed to drop them in the rankings. As a sign of respect for the Razorbacks’ potent offense, I won’t move them down until that happens, but I don’t have a lot of faith that they can compete in the SEC West.

14) Ohio State

Some analysts said this week that Toledo is a very good team and the fact that they almost beat the Buckeyes demonstrates their legitimacy rather than Ohio State’s middling quality. I’m not buying it. I’m comfortable with the idea of Toledo being a good team, but there is just no way they should have been able to compete with OSU.

15) South Carolina

I left the Gamecocks right where I had them last week. The win over Georgia was certainly exciting, but Georgia isn’t that good. However, you can’t truthfully say the Bulldogs are a bunch of bums, and the game was on the road, so… South Carolina stays in the same spot. Seems fair to me.

16) Michigan State

I gave Ohio State a lot of credit for completely crushing Akron’s offense in week one, so I have to do the same for the Spartans. Of course, what MSU did defensively was even more impressive. Really? 48 yards and one first down? That’s unheard of. I know it was Florida Atlantic, but still. Next up for Sparty: Notre Dame.

17) Arizona State

Arizona State got to show off for the nation on Friday night, and they gave the most honest team performance I’ve ever seen. The Sun Devils’ abundance of talent and potential were on full display as they built a two-touchdown lead on Missouri. Then everyone got to see their propensity to make foolish mistakes and stupid penalties as they let the Tigers back in the game. This team can win, but they have to play smarter.

18) Baylor

No word yet on whether Baylor can really hang with the big boys in the Big 12 this season (I kind of doubt it, but we’ll see). What is clear through the first two weeks is that people are finally cottoning on to the greatness of Robert Griffin III. Any and all Heisman hype directed at a certain QB in Ann Arbor should be focused on RG3.

19) South Florida

I don’t think USF will really be tested until they go on the road for their first two league games against Pittsburgh and defending Big East champ UConn. Certainly Florida A&M and UTEP shouldn’t be too much to handle. The biggest challenge for the Bulls will be to stay healthy until October.

20) West Virginia

After an alarming halftime deficit to Norfolk State the Mountaineers got it going. That’s good, because their competition ramps up sharply in difficulty in both of the next two weeks: first against rival Maryland, then versus LSU. Any chance WVU gets out of September undefeated? Ask again once they play the Terrapins.

21) Houston

How in the world is Texas ranked and not Houston? The Cougars would destroy the Longhorns. BYU nearly beat Texas, and those Cougars are about half as good as Case Keenum’s crew. This is a travesty. Houston’s schedule doesn’t give them a whole lot of chances to impress voters, so people should give them some credit now.

22) TCU

Hmm. I wouldn’t have been shocked if Air Force had upset the shell-shocked Horned Frogs, but TCU clobbered the Falcons. Perhaps they were written off to the bottom half of the top 25 too soon. The Mountain West actually presents some decent obstacles, so we’ll find out if Boise State has a true challenger.

23) USC

I don’t know what to make of SC. They could have easily lost both of their games, yet here they stand at 2-0. The lack of playmakers on the Trojan offense is disturbing given their touted recruiting classes, but it could be that the extreme focus on Roberts Woods (which is understandable) has stunted the growth of other players.

24) Auburn

All right, I’m willing to concede that Auburn can be ranked. Somehow, despite fate’s best efforts, the Tigers just can’t seem to lose. I certainly don’t think they’re ready to take on LSU or Alabama, but having Gus Malzahn in your corner helps a lot. With time, and a continued propensity for lucky breaks, this team could become formidable.

25) Michigan

Big Blue has the same “never say die” attitude as Auburn right now. Though last week’s win was more about Notre Dame blowing it than what Michigan did, you have to give the Wolverines credit for not folding while there was still time on the clock. One problem, though: the new offense hasn’t gelled at all. That’s going to be an issue.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Checking in on all our friends out west… let’s start with the North. Cal did beat Colorado in that weird conference-game-that-wasn’t, but they needed overtime to do so and were outgained by 200 yards, mostly through the air. That bodes very badly for the Bears. Stanford curiously didn’t pull away from Duke until the second half, though it’s possible the Cardinal were holding back for their conference opener against Arizona. Oregon was explosive but struggled to run the ball on Nevada, which is a bad sign. The Ducks’ offensive line clearly needs some work.

Oregon State just got killed at Wisconsin despite a pretty good defensive performance, and now Mike Riley has switched QB’s. I don’t honestly have a clue about why he’s dropping Ryan Katz for Sean Mannion. It would make sense for the Beavers to give up on 2011 and have a “youth movement” if Katz was a senior, but he’s still got a couple dozen games left as an amateur and I don’t see how pulling the plug on him is a positive move. Mannion didn’t play any better against the Badgers. We’ll have to watch this controversy with bemusement – and believe me, it’s already a controversy.

Washington struggled to put away Hawai’i just as they did against Eastern Washington. The Huskies might have some defensive issues, but they won’t see another passing offense like the ones the Warriors and Eagles ran. That’s a positive – as is UDub starting the year 2-0 for the first time since 2007. Washington State is also off to a 2-0 start, which is a much bigger deal given how bad the Cougars have been in recent years.

USC got the first Pac-12 season started with a closer-then-it-should-have-been win over Utah. The Trojans may be the second best team in the South, but they’ve got to find some consistency on both sides of the ball if they want to be taken seriously. Utah looked decent in their first game in a BCS conference, but the Utes had no business being in position to tie the game. They’ll still be a bit player in the Pac-12 race, but losing the opener hurts.

Poor Colorado could have really used that win over Cal. This week will be the Buffaloes’ best chance all season, against Colorado State. They’d better get this one, because I don’t see a guaranteed win on the rest of their schedule. Arizona got waxed at Oklahoma State, but that’s not too embarrassing. OSU is quite good. Much more concerning was UCLA’s pedestrian 10-point win over San Jose State. Psst. Want to hear a secret? I think there’s a chance the Bruins aren’t very good…

So then we come to Arizona State. The Fork was feared on Friday in Tempe, but man, did the Sun Devils make it hard for themselves. Anyone watching that game could see that Missouri was simply overmatched, but as is their custom, ASU had to try to give it away. At this point, I don’t think you can write it off as immature play – I’ve seen too much of this over the years from Dennis Erickson-coached teams. More on this later.

Heisman* Watch

*As my last post explained, this list excludes Andrew Luck because the actual Heisman race is all but over. This is a “best of the rest.”

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

I’ll keep him here until he falters. Griffin is a rare athlete for a player so gifted as a passer. Unlike Michigan QB Denard Robinson, he’s as good as the hype surrounding him. He just needs to avoid injuries.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Good thing the NCAA cracked down on those crooks from Boise. Handing out three years’ probation and scholarship losses sure beats having to deal with any of the real problems around the country at Ohio State, Auburn, Oregon, or Miami. I mean, have you even seen the rap sheet of “impermissible benefits” Boise dealt out? Come on, NCAA. People sometimes say the NCAA goes after the little programs upsetting the balance of power and covers up for the big-name schools. I don’t normally buy it, but how is this not a perfect example of the NCAA doing just that?

There’s a lot of hype around Michigan’s Denard Robinson again. It’s understandable – he just brought UM back from certain defeat against Notre Dame, and he ran for an NCAA-QB record 1,700 yards last season while also throwing for 2,500. He’s a great athlete. However, he isn’t particularly accurate, a fact his athleticism masks (just 11-for-24 last week). And while his fourth-quarter performance against Notre Dame was extraordinary, you can’t forget the fact that it was partially because of his three interceptions that Michigan was in that position in the first place.

Because of this, I’ve awarded Robinson my first “Stanzi” award. Named for late Iowa QB (he graduated, he’s not dead) Ricky Stanzi, “Stanzi-ing” a game refers to a player (generally a QB) who is responsible for putting his team into a huge hole and then receives the credit for bringing the team back. Stanzi was infamous for tossing multiple picks in a game, then going nuts in the fourth quarter and winning the game. Thus the phrase is born: Robinson “Stanzied it” against the Fighting Irish.

I liken this term to the phrase “Cougin’ it,” which arose after Washington State became famous for their late-game collapses. No season was more indicative of Wazzu’s ability to “Coug it” in winnable games than 2005, when the Cougars lost an astonishing six games in this fashion by a total of 27 points. The phrase has since spread to the general college football lexicon whenever a team “snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.” I think “Stanzied” is just as appropriate.

My last thought is regarding Arizona State Dennis Erickson. I think Erickson is a pretty good coach, though he hasn’t always succeeded in the face of great expectations. But it’s funny that people still can’t see how his coaching style works. What has Arizona State been known for since Erickson took over in 2007? Underachieving, thanks to sloppy, undisciplined play and tons of penalties, particularly personal fouls. What was Oregon State known for when Erickson was in charge? The Beavers featured a high-octane offense, a speedy defense, and… a reputation for unsportsmanlike play. I couldn’t find the data online, but I believe the 11-1 OSU team from 2000 led the nation in penalties. I do remember the 2001 Fiesta Bowl following that season, when the Beavs annihilated Notre Dame 41-9 and racked up 18 penalties for 174 yards.

All of this is before we even get to Erickson’s Miami tenure (the guy has coached a ton of places). I think everyone knows what the Hurricanes were famous for. My point is that this is not an isolated incident or a problem than can just get fixed. People have to realize that this is how Dennis Erickson teams play: fast, out of control and undisciplined. He has never put a premium on getting his players to win the mental game along with the physical one. That’s just the way he coaches. In the end, it’s a shame, because he’s ended up wasting a lot of potential.

So that’s it for week three. We should start getting some real definitive information this week about who’s for real and who’s not and how the conference races are going to shape up. See you next week.

Fun in Week 1

That was a marvelous opening weekend, no? From the succession of weather delays in the Midwest to the epic TCU-Baylor finish, each hour seemed to bring new surprises. Houston-UCLA also went down to the wire, and Utah State-Auburn was exciting, if not exactly satisfying. You expect to see a lot of offense (and a lot of sloppiness) in teams’ first contests of the new season because of nerves and broken plays, but LSU taught us once again the supreme importance of defense.

I don’t want to rehash a game everyone saw, but there were many telling stats when the Cowboy Classic was finished. Particularly, despite what appeared to be second-half rushing dominance, the Tigers only averaged 3.6 yards a rush – just one-fifth of a yard more than Oregon. That’s surprising before you even get to the passing numbers, where Jarrett Lee was expectedly anemic, completing less than half his passes for fewer than a hundred yards. But the sheer dominance of the Tigers’ defensive front compensated for all of that.

Ever since Super Bowl XLII between the Patriots and Giants there has been a greater public understanding of the importance of defensive line play. The high-profile games Oregon has played in the past few seasons have further proved this point. But this has been fairly common throughout the 2000s during the rise of high-scoring spread offenses. Spread offenses of all varieties emphasize one-on-one matchups, where superior athleticism usually wins out. When an elite defense can match that athleticism, the offense is in trouble, which is a problem all spread teams eventually face. So the LSU win wasn’t exactly shocking.

I do find it interesting that Oregon fell ten spots in the AP Poll. Really? For losing to what is now allegedly the second-best team in the country? I await the result of this week’s Georgia-South Carolina game with great interest, then. The Gamecocks are ranked 12^th, whereas the Bulldogs are unranked thanks to their loss to Boise State.

Astute readers may recall that in 2007, the situations for the two teams were reversed, with Georgia holding the lofty number 11 spot in the AP while South Carolina was unranked. But lo and behold! – one upset later, South Carolina was ranked 17^th and Georgia, disgraced… fell all the way to 23^rd. So if the Bulldogs turn the tables on the Gamecocks this week (which I think might happen because I don’t have a particularly high opinion of South Carolina), where do both teams wind up in next week’s poll? Remember that these are SEC teams. Yet, if I recall, Oregon dropped from third to 13^th just by losing to second-ranked LSU. What kind of precedent does that set? Or rather, what kind of quickly-forgotten-when-it-comes-time-to-rank-SEC-teams precedent does that set? Wait and see.

Top 25

1) Alabama

Bama almost broke a sweat against Kent State. They might do so at Penn State this week, but don’t expect much. The Crimson Tide are probably going to be on cruise control until the conference schedule starts. They’ll need the rest; the SEC West is a gauntlet.

2) Oklahoma

The Sooners’ defense was better than expected against the potentially dangerous Tulsa offense. I don’t expect Oklahoma to have trouble with Florida State, but at least it’s a battle of name programs. I don’t see this going much different than it did last year.

3) LSU

OK, so LSU passed the early test. The defense really is that good. But something has to be done about the offense. Every team isn’t going to gift wrap three fumbles to the Tigers. At some point the lack of a passing threat will kill them.

4) Boise State

Oh, did a football game break out last week in Atlanta? As expected, Boise State swatted Georgia away with little difficulty, building a 21-point lead in the second half before the Bulldogs made it respectable. Next up? No one. Seriously.

5) Stanford

Oh, poor Duke. The Blue Devils are sure to give Stanford a good effort, but this has all the makings of another 68-point outburst like the one we saw at Wake Forest last year. After this game the Cardinal dive right into their Pac-12 slate, so maybe there’s trap potential here. At least, that’s what Duke should tell themselves.

6) Wisconsin

It was only UNLV… but come on, Wisconsin looked great on opening night. Russell Wilson is the perfect spice to add to the Badgers’ traditionally flavorless ground n’ pound approach, mixing in pocket poise and deft play-action ability. This could be a carbon-copy of Stanford… but with a better running game.

7) Texas A&M

Say what you will about their conference fickleness, A&M looks good on the field. The Aggies turned back a decent challenge from SMU with ease. That Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State is starting to look really interesting.

8) Virginia Tech

Tech dropped a bunch of points on Appalachian State, which earns them as much respect as you can get for beating an FCS team. I know the 2010 Auburn similarities are there, I just don’t want to give this inferior team that much credit yet.

9) Oregon

The Ducks get two weeks to lick their wounds before starting Pac-12 play. The positive from the LSU game is that UO knows they can play with anyone if they don’t beat themselves, but to win a third straight conference title they’ll have to figure out what works and what doesn’t.

10) Nebraska

Nebraska faces a couple of respectable opponents in their next two games in Fresno State and Washington. If they dominate both teams, which they are capable of doing, the Cornhuskers could be in for a special year. Even close wins would not bode well for Big 10 success.

11) Oklahoma State

I suppose I cheated a little by releasing this after the Cowboys won their second game, but I expected them to knock off Arizona anyway. This team is as explosive as ever on offense, but we’ll need to reserve judgment until the defense faces an elite offense too.

12) Florida State

FSU ground out a solid, if sluggish, win over Louisiana-Monroe. With the rematch against Oklahoma looming on the horizon, the Seminoles have to careful. Not this week against Charleston Southern, but with ACC pride on the line. It would look really bad if the league’s most highly-regarded team got hammered again.

13) Ohio State

No, beating Akron doesn’t mean the Buckeyes are going to be as good as usual. It’s the way OSU won that makes them worthy of moving up. Do you realize how hard it is to hold any team to less than a hundred yards of offense? That’s impressive.

14) Arkansas

I stand by my prediction that even with Knile Davis the Razorbacks wouldn’t have been able to win their division this year. Until they play Alabama, though, we won’t know for sure. Troy and New Mexico shouldn’t pose too much of a threat.

15) South Carolina

Moment of truth, Gamecocks. Are you the team everyone thinks you are, or the team you want to be? A statement against Georgia this week would go a long way toward proving the latter. If you can’t win this game, you don’t deserve to play for a conference title.

16) Mississippi State

If MSU can beat Auburn this week they can be taken seriously. If they beat LSU next week, it’s a whole different story. Let’s start with the easier task. Auburn is an inferior, unranked team. Beat the first group of Tigers, then we’ll talk about if this team has a shot at winning the West.

17) Arizona State

I moved the Sun Devils up because some teams ahead of them looked bad in their wins. Case in point, this week’s opponent Missouri. ASU desperately wants to be back in the top 25 spotlight and respected again. They need to win this game, or their season could unravel quickly.

18) Missouri

The 17-6 win over Miami (OH) wasn’t exactly mind-blowing. Arizona State’s defense is fast, physical, and features probably the nation’s best defensive talent in Vontaze Burfict. The beleaguered Big 12 could use this win, but I’m not about to predict a Tigers victory. They need to be ready for a battle.

19) Michigan State

I wasn’t high on Sparty to begin with, but yikes. I didn’t think MSU would get exposed this early in the year. And yes, holding a 14-6 halftime lead on Youngstown State does qualify as being exposed. The only thing that remains to be seen is whether this is the same bunch of plucky overachievers as last year or just a mid-level squad.

20) Baylor

Everyone saw it, but it bears (sorry) repeating: Did you see what Robert Griffin III did to a TCU defense? Unreal. Now, the defense is going to lose a couple games for Baylor this season, but you’ve got to think Griffin will win a couple by himself too. It was just one game, but it felt as though the Bears had finally broken through.

21) South Florida

I think Notre Dame is a good team, which makes what we saw out of USF last week very impressive. The Bulls shook off a poor defensive yards (yards-wise) and long weather delays to secure a solid win. The schedule isn’t exactly rough from here on out, so keep an eye on these guys.

22) West Virginia

Outside of a home date with LSU, the Mountaineers schedule is favorable. USF now looks like the top contender in the Big East, and the teams don’t play until the end of the season. And you never know about that LSU game… if WVU can force the Tigers’ offense into mistakes, they could make a game of it.

23) Houston

The Cougars are like Boise State, 2009. Or 2010. Or 2011. In any case, the one-game season is over for Houston after the opener against UCLA (at least BSU had the dignity to schedule some hard opponents). Houston shouldn’t play another team with their talent level until at least the Conference USA championship.

24) TCU

All is not lost for TCU, but what happened defensively against Baylor? Considering the Horned Frogs have led the nation in defense three years running. I think they’ll get it figured out. The offense also did a nice job coming back from the big deficit. TCU will be fine.

25) Utah

The opener produced a win, albeit an uninspiring one. Now the Utes get to jump right into Pac-12 play against USC. This should be fun. The Trojans were equally listless against Minnesota last week, so I’m expecting a good game. Can the Utes compete? We finally get to find out.

Pac-12 Thoughts

The Utah-USC opener is the foremost thing on the league’s mind, but the non-conference games this week will probably tell us a lot more about where this season is headed. Arizona State could announce they are for real with a win over Missouri and Oregon State could regain some pride against Wisconsin after falling last week to (gulp) Sacramento State. Arizona has already lost to Oklahoma State (no shame in that), and Washington has a huge trap game against Hawai’i. The conference’s reputation is at stake in many of these games after Oregon’s loss to LSU. It would be helpful if the Pac-12 could look good this week.

Heisman Watch

Because Andrew Luck is the best player in the country, this is a moot discussion. However, I am nothing if not fair, so I’ve decided to make a new award this year called the “wHo’s the bEst player who ISn’t Andrew Luck-MAN.” In this blog it will be referred too as simply the “Heisman,” with the understanding that Luck is by definition, ineligible. With that said…

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

It’s a short list thus far, but it will expand as the year goes on. Griffin’s performance against TCU will go down in Baylor lore, and it announced him to the nation as a superstar. I look forward to seeing him in 2011; let’s pray he can stay healthy.

Random Thoughts and Observations

You can’t blame the SEC for taking the next step, though you can still blame Texas A&M for forcing their hand. As you should all be aware at this point, the conference has agreed to let A&M in if they just stop their whining. That’s more or less what the SEC said. There’s also this bit about how the Aggies have to make sure nobody in the Big 12 wants to sue them for leaving after every school in the conference signed a decade-long deal to stay together last summer.

This has all set off a wonderfully ridiculous and completely hilarious round of posturing and faux-indignation from Texas A&M and the various parties that would be must hurt by the breakup of the Big 12, including Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor, though in reality we’re really just talking about Baylor. The Bears stand the most (or tied for the most) to lose if they don’t have Oklahoma and Texas to hold them up in a major conference any longer. Rather than take it on the chin and go to the Mountain West, the school has moved in its best interest to try to block Texas A&M from leaving, or at least milking them of some cash if they go.

Both parties have valid arguments. I’m inclined to side with Baylor, but the most amusing thing about this debacle is Texas A&M’s bizarre theory that the school would be better off in the SEC, both “culturally” and “competitively.” How’s that again?

Culturally I can sort of buy, although I don’t see how playing against the SEC West is so different than playing the other Texas schools. Let’s be honest about the “culture” argument – A&M doesn’t like Texas and wants to get away. Part of the Aggies’ secession faction keeps repeating that Texas broke the Big 12’s agreement to hold the conference together by taking unequal revenue (plus the Longhorn Network), thereby dissolving any obligations Texas A&M has to the league. That’s somewhat true, but the problem is that the Aggies STILL signed on for the new Big 12. And as I recall, Texas invited Texas A&M to share in the LHN... and they refused.

However, that’s actually the stronger part of the argument, because the “competition” argument is so ludicrous you have to wonder whether the SEC West schools are behind it all to grab themselves an easier division foe. Texas A&M has one conference title in the Big 12 era, back in 1998. The Aggies have played in just two Big 12 championship games total (1997 was the other). They’ve been passed and dwarfed by the accomplishments of Texas and Oklahoma, they’re 1-9 in their last 10 bowl games, and they’re three games over .500 in the past decade. This ain’t the old Southwest Conference, guys. You’re not a powerhouse anymore.

To end on a lighter note, Oklahoma is now reportedly reconsidering their standing Pac-12’s invite. Curiously, the Sooners are reportedly the only Big 12 school that has not waived their right to sue Texas A&M. Why would that be? Perhaps because they don’t want to look like hypocrites when they announce for a new conference at some point this season?

We’ve been over this before, but Oklahoma joining the Pac-12 and A&M jumping to the SEC would set off another round of conference shakeups. As both leagues have said they would prefer to expand their respective TV and recruiting footprints in moving to 16-team superconferences, I believe things would end up looking like this:

Pac-16

(With renamed divisions, placing the old Pac-8 schools together in the West and the new schools, collectively referred to as the “heathen outsiders,” in the East)

West

Cal

Oregon

Oregon State

Stanford

UCLA

USC

Washington

Washington State

East

Arizona

Arizona State

Colorado

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State (OU’s obvious moving buddy)

Texas (LHN is an issue, but a workable one)

Texas Tech (The “hey, why not?” team)

Utah

SEC

(The division names should hold up fine if the right teams are taken)

West

Alabama

Arkansas

Auburn

LSU

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Missouri (A good fit for the region)

Texas A&M

East

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

Louisville (Rival for WVU, Kentucky)

South Carolina

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

West Virginia (The Big East’s best)

West Virginia and Louiville might seem like odd additions, but there are reasons to choose them. For West Virginia, it’s that the SEC gets what is clearly the best and most consistent Big East team. For Louisville, I like it because there are already established rivalries with West Virginia and Kentucky. However, these schools also fit because of the lack of strings attached to them. For example, Virginia Tech, who would obviously be the best choice among all the east coast schools. But Tech is in a standing package deal with Virginia, who nobody really cares much about. Georgia Tech is a candidate, but the Yellow Jackets are solidly acclimated to the ACC, particularly as a basketball school. Miami and Florida are both power schools, but the SEC already has a team in the state and is looking to expand. The remaining options are fairly unsavory, such as USF (already in Florida, no history), Baylor (absolutely no way) or UCF (see USF).

So that’s where we stand after week one. The season’s just begun and already there’s universal madness. May the best team win.