The Bowlster Wonderful Week of the Year

I started a delightful 5-1 in my bowl predictions but fell to 6-4 before recovering to finish 8-4. Week Two is the giant overload of bowls, so here’s where I have to make the most of my picks. All predictions are in Pacific time and on a 1-5 scale of watchability.

St. Petersburg Bowl

Connecticut (6-6) vs. Marshall (9-3)

December 26, 8:00 a.m.

Let’s be real. UConn is only here because the Huskies got to play Houston with a backup QB while the Cougars turned the ball over five times. This is not a good team. Marshall, on the other hand, is actually pretty good. The Thundering Herd got K.O.’d in the last game of the year against Western Kentucky, but other than that it was a very solid year. The Herd have a nicely balanced offense and a quietly powerful D. This is an easy one.

Watchability: 1. No marquee guys and UConn shouldn’t be in a bowl.

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Miami (FL) vs. Washington State (8-4)

December 26, 11:00 a.m.

This is a little tougher of a pick. Wazzu had an odd year, losing at least games it shouldn’t have but winning at least one it didn’t deserve. Miami’s season was less confusing; the Hurricanes largely beat their bad opponents and lost to the good ones. Both are programs on the rise after long dormant periods, with promising young quarterbacks. The Cougars were a little more consistent, so I give a slight edge to WSU.

Watchability: 3. This might be a big stepping stone for next season.

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl

Washington (6-6) vs. Southern Miss (9-4)

December 26, 11:20 a.m.

On paper, Southern Miss looks like the stronger squad. At 9-4, the Golden Eagles won the Conference USA’s West Division and finished as the league’s runner-up after a strong showing against Western Kentucky. Outside of the upset of USC, Washington didn’t really beat anyone that notable. But that perspective belies the difficulty of UW’s Pac-12 schedule, as well as its respectable showings in losses to Boise State and Oregon and massive injury issues. The Huskies still cobbled together one of the nation’s best defenses, and are correctly favored in this matchup.

Watchability: 2. Washington might be good next year, so now’s the time to hop on the bandwagon.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Indiana (6-6) vs. Duke (7-5)

December 26, 12:30 p.m.

Indiana came up tantalizingly short versus Ohio State and Iowa, but defense remains a major issue for the Hoosiers, who allowed more points than they scored. Duke started 6-1 but lost four straight to tumble out of contention. The Blue Devils have a better defense, but I’m going with Indiana, which had a better year than the record might indicate. I love the Hoosiers offensive trio of QB Nate Sudfeld, running back Jordan Howard and receiver Simmie Cobbs, Jr. Should a shootout.

Watchability: 3. There will be some scoring.

Camping World Independence Bowl

Tulsa (6-6) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6)

December 26, 2:45 p.m.

Given the choice between a pair of .500 teams that hail from a power conference and a mid-major, I’ll almost always go with the Power Five one. I had to put that belief to test here, because I just don’t think Virginia Tech is very good. The Hokies are tepid on offense, as always, and their defense, while good, is nowhere near the fearsome units of years past. Tulsa gives up a ton of points but features an explosive attack led by QB Dane Evans, who will cross the 4,000-yard mark in this game. But the big rub is the retirement of longtime Tech coach Frank Beamer, the last of the old guard coaches. The Hokies are expected to come out in force for Beamer, and I can’t argue against the emotion on that sideline.

Watchability: 2, and only for Beamer’s farewell.

Foster Farms Bowl

UCLA (8-4) vs. Nebraska (5-7)

December 26, 6:15 p.m.

Nebraska is the second of the awful 5-7 teams that got bowl invites this year after there weren’t enough teams to qualify. The Cornhuskers had a trying first season under Mike Riley, with their seven losses coming by a combined 31 points. UCLA, as usual, was overhyped in the preseason and failed to live up to expectations, losing to every reasonably good team on its schedule. Still, the Bruins are demonstrably better, and the game is being played in California, for crying out loud. UCLA had better win this one.

Watchability: 2, if only to see the Bruins squirm when Nebraska ties the game in the fourth.

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman

Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Navy (10-2)

December 28, 11:30 a.m.

This is a tough one to call, as Pitt has the kind of defense that could give the Navy option some problems after a several-week layoff. The Panthers got a lot of love this year for their close losses, but beat nobody of substance. Navy was marvelous from Week One and actually boasts a better D than Pitt. The Midshipmen have their work cut out, but I think a low-scoring Navy win is in order.

Watchability: 3. It won’t be a shootout, but these teams are decent.

Quick Lane Bowl

Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Minnesota (5-7)

December 28, 2:00 p.m.

Minnesota is a special sort of 5-7 case that actually deserves a bowl. The Golden Gophers should have beat Iowa, TCU and Michigan, so this isn’t some charity invite. CMU does have a great QB in Cooper Rush, but the Chippewas were actually somewhat disappointing offensively this season. I like Minnesota in this one, despite the Gophers’ near-total lack of firepower.

Watchability: 1. No no no.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

California (7-5) vs. Air Force (8-5)

December 29, 11:00 a.m.

Cal continues to struggle defensively under Sonny Dykes, but 2015 was a breakthrough season of sorts for the Golden Bears. The offense finally came together consistently, while the D improved just enough to hold off a couple of foes. Air Force was one of the better mid-majors this season, nearly knocking off San Diego State in the Mountain West Final. I like the Falcons, but this is a Pac-12 opponent we’re talking about. Cal should win, provided it isn’t one of those patented Air Raid breakdown games.

Watchability: 2. Probably should be higher, but neither team is exactly a draw.

Russell Athletic Bowl

North Carolina (11-2) vs. Baylor (9-3)

December 29, 2:30 p.m.

Here we go! Finally, two ranked teams. UNC is the clear pick here, though that might not be the case were Baylor not playing with backups at QB, RB, and WR. I just don’t see how the Bears hold up – or keep up – in that scenario. The Tar Heels were a bit a faux contender all year, but QB Marquise Williams is solid and UNC was very balanced. Baylor faced its toughest four opponents in its final four games – and went 1-3. UNC will win, and Baylor fans will hopefully quiet down forever until the team wins a meaningful game.

Watchability: 4. It will be interesting to see how the Bears scrap together an offense.

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl

Nevada (6-6) vs. Colorado State (7-5)

December 29, 4:30 p.m.

An extremely odd matchup of two teams from the same conference. Nevada and CSU didn’t play in the regular season, so at least this isn’t a rematch. The Wolf Pack were up and down all year but did face an ambitious non-conference schedule against Arizona and Texas A&M. Colorado State was the better, more consistent squad, and more importantly did it in a tougher division featuring Boise State and Air Force, teams Nevada missed. The Rams are the pick.

Watchability: 1. This is a weird game.

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl

LSU (8-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

December 29, 6:00 p.m.

Look, LSU wasn’t all that good this year. The Tigers got blown out three straight times after beating nobody in their first seven games. But I still expect they’ll have enough to put away the Red Raiders, to whom defense is an abstract, foreign concept. Tech loves to throw it all over the place, and it’s pretty good at it. But it’s tough to win when you never run and can’t play D, and LSU’s plodding attack should be able to slow the game down enough to get the victory.

Watchability: 3, because Leonard Fournette is involved.

Birmingham Bowl

Auburn (6-6) vs. Memphis (9-3)

December 30, 9:00 a.m.

Let me get this straight. Auburn was terrible this year, no? The Tigers went 6-6, with two wins in SEC play, one of which was against Kentucky. They should have lost to FCS foe Jacksonville State. Memphis went 9-3 and beat Ole Miss, Auburn’s conference mate, who in turn defeated Auburn. And the Tigers are favored in this game? I get that Memphis lost its coach to Virginia Tech, but I think the retention of the FBS’ most efficient passer – Paxton Lynch – will soften the blow. Memphis all the way.

Watchability: 3. Lynch might be the first QB taken in next year’s draft.

Belk Bowl

North Carolina State (7-5) vs. Mississippi State (8-4)

December 30, 12:30 p.m.

Neither of these teams was worth much this season, and neither beat anyone of note, with the exception of MSU’s upset of a hot Arkansas team in the penultimate game of the year. There are a couple of decent college QB’s here, with the Wolfpack’s Jacoby Brissett and the Bulldogs’s Dak Prescott, but overall neither offense is particularly exciting. This is the most middling of all the bowls. I’ll take Mississippi State.

Watchability: 1. That feels generous.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Louisville (7-5)

December 30, 4:00 p.m.

Louisville was tremendously disappointing in 2015, but the same can be said for A&M. With not one but two high-profile QB’s transferring and Kevin Sumlin’s job in question, the smart money seems to be on Louisville. That’s a hard pick to make, given how uninspiring the Cardinals were. Texas A&M played in a better league, too. In the end, given the crazy amount of turmoil surrounding the Aggies, I have to go with Louisville.

Watchability: 2, because I have no idea what A&M is going to look like.

National Funding Holiday Bowl

USC (8-5) vs. Wisconsin (9-3)

December 30, 7:30 p.m.

USC should win this game handily, but I think at this point we all know how that goes. The Trojans were allegedly “hot” after firing Steve Sarkisian, upsetting Utah and beating three bad teams; Oregon laid waste to that idea, then Stanford drove a stake through it. The Trojans remain the ultimate underachievers. Wisconsin led the country in scoring defense and lost to Iowa close, but playing in the Big Ten West meant the Badgers faced absolutely no one. USC needs to and should win this game without issue… we’ll see if they prove it.

Watchability: 3. These teams are always good on the big stage.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

Houston (12-1) vs. Florida State (10-2)

December 31, 9:00 a.m.

FSU is favored for a reason, but don’t count the Cougars out. Houston would have been 13-0 if not for an untimely injury to QB Greg Ward, Jr. The Cougars largely romped through a very good AAC and played in the stronger West Division to boot. I like this team a lot. Florida State played exactly one good team all season (Clemson) and lost. And yet… the Seminoles defense is very, very good, and I expect they’ll be able to hold the dynamic Ward in check most of the game. With a rush-dominant attack led by RB Dalvin Cook able to control the clock, the ‘Noles will win.

Watchability: 5. Two talented teams with a lot on the line, reputation-wise.

Capital One Orange Bowl – CFP Semifinal

Oklahoma (11-1) vs. Clemson (13-0)

December 31, 1:00 p.m.

This is going to be fun. I’ve made my feelings about OU very clear: this is the best team in the country. QB Baker Mayfield should have won the Heisman and the Sooners are playing better than anyone right now. The offense is outrageous: balanced, explosive, powerful, efficient. The defense isn’t elite, but it’s as good or better than the Tigers’ while playing against a handful of Big 12 offenses that are all better than any Clemson saw in the ACC.

That doesn’t mean this will be easy. Clemson is also very good, and Deshaun Watson deserved to be in New York. The Tigers have earned a No. 1 ranking. But Watson’s weapons aren’t of the same caliber as Mayfield’s, and Clemson undoubtedly played an easier schedule than the Sooners. I expect points, but Oklahoma will prevail.

Watchability: 5. Two elite teams squaring off on New Year’s Eve.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Michigan State (12-1) vs. Alabama (12-1)

December 31, 5:00 p.m.

MSU is back where it believed it should have been last year. The question is, are the Spartans actually better than in 2014? I don’t think they are. The statistics back me up; MSU is averaging more than 100 yards per game fewer than it did last year on offense and about 50 more yards per game allowed on D. QB Connor Cook has improved, but he’s about the only thing that has. The biggest difference from last season is the Spartans got to play weaker Oregon and Ohio State teams that beat them in 2014. Is that a recipe to win a title?

Don’t despair, though. Alabama is weaker, too. The SEC got a lot worse in 2015, yet the Crimson Tide actually regressed offensively, returning to their plodding ground-based attack and throwing only as a complement after losing dual-threat QB Blake Sims and all-world receiver Amari Cooper. Of course, the defense remains elite, but as we saw in last year’s semifinal against Ohio State, that can’t always be relied upon. In the end, I see ‘Bama pulling out a low-scoring affair, but neither team is particularly inspiring.

Watchability: 5. Less scoring doesn’t always mean less interesting.

Outback Bowl

Northwestern (10-2) vs. Tennessee (8-4)

January 1, 9:00 a.m.

Northwestern started 5-0 with an upset of Stanford, but everyone knew that was a fluke. The Wildcats played only two more high-quality opponents the rest of the way (Michigan, Iowa) and lost both games. Tennessee blew three early games against Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas; otherwise, the Volunteers would have played in the SEC Championship. As it is, they nearly upset Alabama. NU is a mess offensively, and while the Wildcats have a good scoring defense, that’s easy to accomplish when you’re facing terrible Big Ten offenses. I’ll take Tennessee.

Watchability: 3. For how high-profile a game this is, it’s not very enticing.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

Michigan (9-3) vs. Florida (10-3)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

This is one of the easiest picks this postseason. Florida is a mess at QB, everyone knows it, and any above-average foe (see: FSU and Alabama in the last two games) can exploit it. Michigan is one of those teams. The Gators do play excellent defense, but hey, so do the Wolverines, and UM can actually score. Michigan wins, no problem.

Watchability: 2. Florida’s offense is really, really bad.

Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl

Notre Dame (10-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

This feels like a pretty easy call as well. Notre Dame had a nice season, adroitly adjusting to injuries across the board en route to a near-Playoff berth. But despite all the talent in South Bend, the truth is that Ohio State recruits better. The Buckeyes, even with all the underachieving, are stronger on offense, and they’re truly fearsome defensively. OSU has a lot to prove to the nation after sleepwalking through the regular season and I expect they’ll do so with aplomb.

Watchability: 4. There’s a lot of talent on this field.

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual

Stanford (11-2) vs. Iowa (12-1)

January 1, 2:00 p.m.

I run the risk, as usual, of getting burned here by Stanford. The Cardinal are the second-worst team in the country to count on as a favorite (trailing only grand champion Oklahoma), and typically don’t perform well in out-of-conference games. In fact, the last time Stanford beat a real Big Ten team – no, Maryland last year doesn’t count – was in 2012. But there’s a reason the Cardinal are favored. Iowa cakewalked to a 12-0 record by missing every quality team in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes’ offense is mediocre and their defense only looked great because of the offenses it faced. Stanford should win.

Watchability: 4. There’s not a lot of spice, but it’s still the Rose Bowl.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Ole Miss (9-3)

January 1, 5:30 p.m.

This is a tough one to call, as both teams are overrated. Oklahoma State tosses the ball around everywhere but doesn’t play defense. Ole Miss got a fluke upset of Alabama but was otherwise exposed by Florida and Memphis. I expect both sides to score a fair amount, but it’s a total toss-up. In the end, I like how the Rebels ended the season (two wins to the Cowboys two losses) and the fact that they went out and played Memphis when they didn’t have to do so. OSU had a few close calls with bad opponents (Texas, K-State) and probably was lucky to get to 10 wins.

Watchability: 4, more for the potential scoring than the quality of the teams.

Bowl Week Two is packed to the brim and couldn’t be more exciting! Let’s continue this holiday fun in style.

The Bowlst Wonderful Time of the Year

Despite my past disdain for the over-abundance of bowls in the college football postseason, I admit that I do truly love bowl season. There are games on constantly, usually pitting teams that wouldn’t normally play against each other, and it gives us one last chance to see special players in televised showcase contests.

That’s not to say the bowl system is exactly laudable: on the contrary, it remains a shameless money-grab for the most part, and the natural cycle of hirings and firings at the end of the season guarantees some teams will be playing without a coach, with an interim one, or worst of all, with the newly minted boss peering down at his minions from the coaches’ box like an overly critical bird of prey. Throw in the usual no-shows, and the bowls deserve all the scrutiny they get.

Still, there’s something rather magical about the series of games played around the holidays, particularly the storied bowls that have existed for decades. The mystique of the Rose, Sugar and Cotton bowls will never die, even with the onset of the new playoff system. That’s what makes it all worthwhile, in the end.

As always, I’ll break down each matchup (with all times Pacific), pick a winner and rate the games on a 1-5 scale of “watchability”, which should serve as a warning when you’re considering sitting down for an afternoon with a couple of 6-6 mid-major junkball teams. This post will cover all the bowls through next Friday.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Arizona (6-6) vs. New Mexico (7-5)

December 19, 11:00 a.m.

Ugh. The Pac-12 is favored in most of its bowls, but the reason for that will become very apparent once you see the matchups. The Wildcats are favored and should be; despite a frustrating 6-6 campaign ‘Zona is much more talented than UNM. The team has a variety of playmakers on the offensive side that should overwhelm the Lobos, though motivation could be an issue. New Mexico’s seven-win season (which included gigantic upsets of Boise State and division champion Air Force) has been very exciting, but I doubt the Lobos’ option-based attack will catch Arizona too off-guard. The ‘Cats see enough of that in the Pac-12.

Watchability: 2. Might be some scoring, but Arizona should win handily.

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl

BYU (9-3) vs. Utah (9-3)

December 19, 12:30 p.m.

This is a fairly good matchup of two teams who probably deserve a better landing spot than this, but that’s not what makes the Vegas Bowl must-see TV. No, it’s the implications of what might happen in this game that make it potentially thrilling. Utah! BYU! The Holy War! In Las Vegas! This is a top-five rivalry in terms of hatred right now, so much so that the teams stopped playing in the regular season. Add BYU’s recent history of unsportsmanlike conduct, and this thing could get nasty. As for the actual game, well, I would have liked Utah most of the year, but the Utes limped into the postseason and haven’t looked good since October. BYU has been really banged up, but I don’t know how much that will matter once the game kicks off. It’s a push, and I’ll ultimately take Utah, but I’ll probably regret it.

Watchability: 500 million. Are you kidding? This is going to be a disaster. The AD’s are already writing their letters of condemnation in regards to the post-game brawl.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

Ohio (8-4) vs. Appalachian State (10-2)

December, 19, 2:30 p.m.

Ah, yes. Appalachian State, the once and future king of the hearts of college football fans (except in Ann Arbor), making its bowl debut. The Mountaineers went 10-2 this year, nearly winning the Sun Belt crown in their first season as full FBS members. Alas, I have to pick against them, as I fear their wins – nine of the 10 victories were blowouts – were compiled against the worst of competition. Ohio lost a few games but at least played a couple squads with a pulse, and knocked off MAC West champion NIU in the last game of the year (a game the Huskies needed to win). The Bobcats defense is pretty good, and I’ll take Ohio in a minor upset.

Watchability: 1. I thought about bumping it up, but a 2 would have been generous.

Autonation Cure Bowl

San Jose State (5-7) vs. Georgia State (6-6)

December 19, 4:00 p.m.

Woof. You thought the last game was bad. SJSU was one of the 5-7 teams the NCAA needed to fill the bowls, yet the Spartans are actually favored to beat the Panthers because of how bad GSU was this season. To recap: the team lost to not one but two FCS-level opponents (yes, Charlotte still counts), then won its final four games to finish at .500. The Panthers won five games in the Sun Belt. You can’t say much for SJSU, but at least the Spartans went a respectable 4-4 in Mountain West play. Yikes.

Watchability: Deserves, much, much lower than a 1.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Arkansas State (9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-4)

December 19, 6:00 p.m.

A couple of solid offenses here that should have no problem scoring. Arkansas State did what Arkansas State does: flop around in non-conference play, then wreak havoc on the Sun Belt. LTU was a contender for the Conference USA’s West Division, but got smacked in the final game to eventual winner Southern Miss. I like the Bulldogs more overall, and LTU certainly played a tougher schedule. But Arky State has a pretty impressive offense and the decided quarterback edge with Fredi Knighten. It’s a toss-up, and I’ll go with… Louisiana Tech, after all.

Watchability: 3. Points will be scored.

Miami Beach Bowl

Western Kentucky (11-2) vs. South Florida (8-4)

December 21, 11:30 a.m.

South Florida was pretty good this year, and the American turned out a nice season as the top Group of Five conference. But Western Kentucky was on another level, at least offensively, as QB Brandon Doughty threw for 4,500 yards. I mentioned in the preseason that the Hilltoppers could be a decent candidate to go undefeated and bust the bowl system; they didn’t quite manage it, but they lived up to the hype. USF had a solid year, but I’m not trusting a team that lost to Maryland.

Watchability: 3, but only for WKU.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Akron (7-5) vs. Utah State (6-6)

December 22, 12:30 p.m.

This is a really tough one to call. I like Utah State. The Aggies played a more difficult schedule, but are severely banged-up and weren’t very consistent on offense or defense this year. Akron has the added motivation of going for its first bowl win ever. USU has the benefit of playing close to home. Neither offense is particularly scary. In the end, I’m going with the Aggies, who were battle-tested against the best the Mountain West had to offer. The Zips missed three of the best four teams from the MAC West.

Watchability: 1. It might be a competitive game, but there’s little to be excited about.

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl

Temple (10-3) vs. Toledo (9-2)

December 22, 4:00 p.m.

Finally, a quality matchup. These were two of the best non-power conference schools in 2015, each notching an upset of a Power Five team. Temple knocked off Penn State in its opener, while Toledo took out Arkansas after the Rockets’ first game was cancelled due to inclement weather. It appeared for a time that both could be in line for a New Year’s Six bowl, or even something greater, before a couple of ill-timed losses ended those dreams. The Owls’ resume is more than respectable, as their three losses came to teams with a combined 30 wins. Toledo was the best team in its division and should have won the MAC West, but a pair of five-point losses doomed the Rockets. This is another very close game to call, with two very nice college QB’s. I have to go with Temple because of the defense, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Toledo win.

Watchability: 4. This is about as good as it gets between two Group of Five schools.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Boise State (8-4) vs. Northern Illinois (8-5)

December 23, 1:30 p.m.

This is a pretty easy one to pick. Boise State was a disappointment this year, but two of the Broncos’ losses were gigantic upsets, including the eight-turnover fiasco against Utah State. For all their issues and inconsistency, the Broncos were still pretty good. NIU got hot late, but the Huskies were thoroughly outclassed by Bowling Green in the MAC title game. BSU has more talent on its roster than the Falcons and will be looking ahead to prove itself for next year’s preseason polls.

Watchability: 2. The teams are decent but there’s not a lot of star power.

Godaddy Bowl

Georgia Southern (8-4) vs. Bowling Green (10-3)

December 23, 5:00 p.m.

For the second straight season, Georgia Southern proved it could play in the FBS. However, that won’t mean much against a buzz saw like BGSU. The Falcons romped through the majority of their schedule and led the nation in passing. The Eagles led the nation in rushing behind a triple-option attack. You won’t find a bigger clash of styles anywhere. The caveat is that BGSU has now lost its coach, and teams without coaches are always unpredictable. Still, I think there’s enough of a talent gap for the Falcons to win without issue.

Watchability: 3. The contrast in styles will be very interesting to see.

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl

Middle Tennessee (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (7-5)

December 24, 9:00 a.m.

Both squads went 6-2 in conference play, but outside of WMU’s upset of Toledo in the finale, neither beat anyone on note. That result alone makes me lean toward the Broncos, though WMU’s better offensive balance also strikes a chord. MTSU’s leading rusher on the year had 468 yards. Both teams are set at QB and the rushing disparity indicates the Broncos are the smarter pick. The Blue Raiders didn’t set the Conference USA on fire, so Western is a pretty obvious choice.

Watchability: 1. I thought about a 2, but I’d have been lying to myself.

Hawai’i Bowl

San Diego State (10-3) vs. Cincinnati (7-5)

December 24, 5:00 p.m.

I thought about going with Cincy and the upset here, I really did. Though SDSU’s nine-game winning streak and Mountain West title are impressive, the Aztecs were shown the door early in their two games against Power Five Competition. The Bearcats boast a talented passer in Gunner Kiel and played an ambitious first-half schedule against Temple, Memphis, Miami (FL) and BYU. Cincy also nearly beat AAC champ Houston. However, in the end, it comes down to defense, which the Aztecs (10^th in points allowed) play and the Bearcats don’t. Cincy’s strategy all year has been to try and outscore people; sometimes it’s worked, sometimes it hasn’t. Playing much closer to home – in a stadium they routinely see, no less – and with the backing of a great D, it’s hard to go against the Aztecs.

Watchability: 3. A moderately tolerable viewing seems in order.

That’s it for the first week of bowl season. Week Two is generally when things ramp up, and this year is no different: there are twice as many games (24) between next Saturday and the following Friday.

Mason Rudolph wins the 2015 Stanzi Award

For a few bizarre minutes Saturday, it seemed we might have chaos. Florida held an unlikely early lead on Alabama after a punt return touchdown, while North Carolina refused to go away against Clemson. Had the top two teams in the committee’s rankings gone down, we could have been in for a very strange final four.

But, as is the case more often than not in college football, the powers that be prevailed. Alabama reasserted itself after a sluggish first half to knock out the Gators. Clemson held on after a bad offside call on North Carolina’s final onside kick. Michigan State restored sanity after allowing a long TD pass against Iowa, and just like that, the Playoff was set.

I don’t necessarily think these are the four best teams in the country, but they are the most deserving. All four are Power Conference champions, which is the most important factor, and this season there will be no controversy over who got left out. Stanford, even at 11-2, wasn’t good enough.

The regular season technically isn’t over – there’s still the matter of that Army – Navy game – but we’ve essentially reached the postseason. And for the record, Navy is very good, and should pick up a 10^th win this weekend. But let’s take an early look at the Playoff.

College Football Playoff

It isn’t in the exact order I would have liked (how Alabama maintained that No. 2 spot is beyond me) but the teams are as I predicted last week: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma. Clemson, as the obvious top seed, gets Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, while the Crimson Tide and Spartans meet in the Cotton Bowl.

OU opened as a favorite to upset Clemson; that’s my early feeling too. I like the Sooners to beat the Tigers and go on to win the National Championship over Alabama, though I’ll delve much deeper into those games in my upcoming bowl preview series. Oklahoma has simply been too good over the second half of the year to pick against.

Pac-12 Report

Stanford, as it so often does, struggled to put away a lesser opponent in USC. However, as Stanford also often does, it found a way. After squandering a potential 28-0 first-half lead on a pair of field goals and a turnover on downs inside the Trojans’ five, the Cardinal led only 13-3 at the break. At that point, SC woke up and scored two quick TD’s to take a three-point lead.

Ah, but of course, we were dealing with Stanford, which plays the long game better than any team in the country. On the verge of a devastating three-and-out after USC took the lead for the first time, the Cardinal cooked up one of their signature escapes, with Kevin Hogan finding Christian McCaffrey on a nifty angle route out of the backfield for 67 yards. Moments after Stanford took the lead back, it got another score, this time from the defense’s signature play: a sack-and-fumble.

The game wasn’t completely out of reach, but the contest essentially ended with that stretch in the middle of the third quarter. As such, Stanford was crowned the 2015 Pac-12 champ; not the best team in the conference by any reasonable measure, but the best this season at dealing with adversity.

Heisman Watch

The disappointing list of Heisman finalists has been announced, with the nation’s most deserving player left out of New York entirely. I covered in-depth last week why Alabama’s Derrick Henry should not win the award, so I won’t re-hash that argument. I agree with the other two finalists, although I wouldn’t give the award to DeShaun Watson or Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey simply didn’t have enough of an impact in Stanford’s two losses to justify winning the award, and his high yardage total is dramatically inflated by kick and punt returns. In a battle between the two most deserving quarterbacks Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield is the obvious choice over Clemson’s Watson.

Random Thoughts and Observations

It’s probably only a matter of time before the Playoff expands to eight teams (though I pray it will stop there). However, in certain years – most, I would argue – only four teams are deserving of inclusion. 2014 was a bit of an anomaly, as Baylor, TCU and Michigan State would have all been worthy entrants in an eight-team field. That isn’t the case this year. Stanford owes its 2015 Pac-12 title to injury (Oregon) and officiating (Washington State), and isn’t deserving of a shot at the National Championship. No mid-major school went undefeated and Notre Dame had two losses as well. The only other team that could have had a chance was Ohio State, but after the Buckeyes’ mediocre performance against a middling (at best) schedule this season, there’s no way they should have been in.

The truth is that while there may sometimes be five or even six teams deserving of the Playoff, there will rarely be a full eight. Preeminent college football analyst Phil Steele has long called for a four-team playoff, arguing that at eight teams, the field will inevitably be muddied by a 9-3 or 8-4 conference champion or even a better squad that failed to win its conference. Conference championships should be a prerequisite for Playoff consideration; failing to include that criteria already increases the danger that the committee’s regional bias (see Alabama at No. 2) will result in incorrect selections. Expanding the playoff could be a fatal mistake for college football. While it is cliché, it’s also the truth: college football has the best regular season of any sport, because of just how important each game is. Playoff expansion could and would water down that special aura around the sport.

2015 Stanzi Awards

  

There was only one winner this week, thanks to the light schedule, and it didn’t have an impact on the Stanzi race.

Earnest Carrington, Louisiana-Monroe

Opponent: New Mexico State

Performance: Two INT, one FUM (for TD), won by seven

Much more important is the crowning of this year’s Stanzi winner! As a reminder, here are the finalists:

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Treon Harris, Florida: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: 2

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2

Thomas Woodson, Akron: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Kyle Bolin, Louisville: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 2

Jake Rudock, Michigan: 2

Marquise Williams, North Carolina: 2

Rudolph and Harris are neck-and-neck with three Stanzis apiece, so we have to delve into their individual performances to determine a winner. In a bizarre bit of trivia, both players turned in all three Stanzi weeks consecutively, with Rudolph going for eight total turnovers against Texas, K-State and West Virginia and Harris turning in six turnovers against Vandy, South Carolina and Florida Atlantic. Both players had one turnover returned for a score. Harris’ performances were slightly better, but Rudolph’s came against better competition.

I went back and forth on these two. It’s pretty hard to go against Harris, who was dreadful after taking over midseason for the Gators. And yet, the thing that finally swung the debate was Rudolph. He’s a much better player and had no business picking up three Stanzis, let alone three in three weeks. So there we have it. Introducing the 2015 winner of the Stanzi Award: Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph!

What a season it’s been. Hard to believe the Playoff is set; it seems just yesterday the preseason polls were coming out. It was a strange and wonderful year, and now we get the magic of the FBS postseason. My bowl preview series will be out shortly.

Championship Week is upon us

Championship Week is always bittersweet. It’s a relatively new invention, as the college football season used to end on Thanksgiving weekend, but in the 20-ish years (wow) of the superconference era, we’ve already gotten a lifetime’s worth of memories. This year promises to be no different.

It’s no surprise the MAC will start us off this week, because the MAC always has to be first. That’s not a criticism in any way; the Big Ten’s little brother has consistently had the most exciting and competitive conference title game of any league. Who can forget Akron’s 2005 Hail Mary to beat Northern Illinois, or NIU storming back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to beat Ohio 23-20 in 2011? What about 2001, when Toledo upset Marshall to ruin the Thundering Herd’s undefeated season; 2008, when Buffalo did the same to Ball State; and 2013, when Bowling Green shocked unbeaten NIU 47-27? Classics all.

This season sees Bowling Green and NIU match up in Detroit for the third straight time, after Toledo blew it last week by losing to Western Michigan. BGSU is favored, having more or less romped through the league, but it should still be a decent contest. It usually is in this game.

We open up Saturday with the American Championship Game, featuring ranked Temple and Houston teams squaring off in Houston. The AAC had a handful of really solid squads this year. Memphis and Navy are also top-25 caliber schools, so we know the Owls and Cougars have been tested. Houston is rightly favored; the Cougars’ only loss came during a turnover-filled disaster while missing starting quarterback Greg Ward, Jr.

The Conference USA Championship is also at 9:00 a.m. (PDT) Saturday, with resurgent Southern Miss taking on Western Kentucky in Bowling Green. I’d be surprised if the Hilltoppers don’t win; WKU has run – or more accurately, passed – roughshod over the rest of the CUSA and has one of the best offenses in the country.

Alabama and Florida meet in Atlanta at 1:00, but this game is merely a formality at this point. The Gators are less than toothless with Stanzi candidate Treon Harris at QB. UF’s offense is a disaster and the only reason the team is here is because the SEC East collapsed on itself this season. Expect a very brief fight before the Crimson Tide roll.

Of much greater interest is the Mountain West title game, with a pair of rather unusual participants: Air Force and San Diego State. To be fair, the Aztecs were favored to win the West from the start, but they’re not exactly a big-name program. Nobody saw the Falcons coming. With the game in San Diego, it’s hard not to favor SDSU, which went 8-0 in conference play this year behind a tremendous ground game and defense.

In prime time, we get the final three title bouts. First, the Pac-12 Championship at 4:45 between USC and Stanford (in Santa Clara!). There’s unfortunately not much to be thrilled about here; the Cardinal already beat the Trojans in L.A. but, barring a miracle, won’t be included in the College Football Playoff. There’s just no upside, and beating a team twice is already difficult. USC, on the other hand, improved post-Sarkisian, but would be a terribly unworthy conference champion at 7-3 in league play (following a win).

The biggest game of the weekend starts moments later, as No. 5 Michigan State and No. 4 Iowa face off for a de facto Playoff play-in. I didn’t take the Hawkeyes seriously this season for a reason: they’re not that good. But neither are the Spartans, and MSU’s upset of Ohio State a few weeks ago throws this whole affair into a wrench. Iowa would have had no shot against a dialed-in Buckeyes squad, but against this flawed Spartans group? Sure. Either way, I expect the winner to be flattened come New Year’s Eve.

Finally, there’s North Carolina – Clemson for the ACC Championship. UNC has a truly terrible loss on its resume (to South Carolina in the opener), but Clemson struggled with the Gamecocks just last week. It doesn’t bode well that neither of these teams could easily put away a 3-9 squad. The Tigers should win, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tar Heels pull the upset; it’s essentially a home game for UNC, and quite frankly, the ACC is so terrible we really don’t know how good either side is.

Playoff Poll

Well, there are a couple of automatic entries to the CFP this week. The Big Ten champ is in. Oklahoma is already in. Alabama (considering the level of competition) is in. From there, it gets slightly hairy, but only if Clemson loses.

College Football Playoff

1) Clemson vs. 4) Michigan State

2) Alabama vs. 3) Oklahoma

We’re in for a real treat, as the hottest team in the country (OU) takes on the most talented one (‘Bama). I went ahead and picked Sparty to win the Big Ten, but that could easily be Iowa.

Pac-12 Thoughts

It’s unfortunate that the conference is locked into the divisional format, because the two best teams in the league have had a very tough time actually playing each other in the championship game. Sure, that was because Stanford and Oregon were far and away the two best teams in the conference from 2011-14, but it simply hurts the league when Stanford (not the best team in the North) is forced to play a team it already beat – on the road, no less – with three Pac-12 losses. But this is what the people wanted.

Heisman Watch

It seems the machine wants the Heisman to go to Trent Richardson 2.0, AKA Derrick Henry. I have nothing against the Alabama running back, but I thought we had learned our lesson in 2009. Oh well. This is who deserves the Heisman in a very un-Heisman-like year.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Outrageous efficiency through the air (35 touchdowns, five picks), a nice rushing complement (420 yards, seven scores) and impressive big-game chops (3-0 versus Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State) should win Mayfield the Heisman.

DeShaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson has 34 total TD’s and is the heart and soul of the Tigers. More importantly, he’s the QB of the nation’s No.1 team. With a big game against UNC, he could make a late push.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

I see Derrick Henry finally passed Fournette on the nation rushing yards list, thanks to an absurd 46 carries against Auburn. Not fooling anyone (well, apparently it is). With the players around him, Fournette’s performance is much more impressive.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In case it isn’t extremely obvious, here’s the final case for why Henry shouldn’t win the Heisman. An unobservant person could disregard the fact that Alabama is better at every offensive position than LSU, which gives Fournette zero help and allows defenses to hone in on him. An unobservant person could also look at only the most basic statistics – total yards and touchdowns – and infer that somehow Henry is a better player.

But even the most unobservant person shouldn’t be able to ignore what Alabama has tried to do since the meeting between the teams on November 7. In the final three four games, Henry received 141 carries to Fournette’s 79, and that INCLUDES Henry’s nine-carry outing against FCS cupcake Charleston Southern, who ‘Bama played two weeks ago. Fournette didn’t get to pad his stats against an FCS foe because the Tiger’s opener versus McNeese State was cancelled due to weather.

With the extra 100-plus yards (and TD’s) from that game, Fournette’s stats would be better across the boards, despite ‘Bama’s blatant attempt to run Henry into the ground the last month in order to win the Heisman. This should not be rewarded. Remember the stink of Mark Ingram’s Heisman, voters. Remember.

2015 Stanzi Awards

We’ve come so far. An incredible five of our seven Stanzis this week belonged to previous winners, vastly expanding the finalist list. However, only two of the potential winners (Florida’s Treon Harris and North Carolina’s Marquise Williams) play this week, so the winner will likely come down to Harris and Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph. But you never know.

Week 13 Awards

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech

Opponent: Texas

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Trevone Boykin, TCU

Opponent: Baylor

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won in overtime

Blake Frohnapfel, Massachusetts

Opponent: Buffalo

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by five

Marquise Williams, North Carolina

Opponent: North Carolina State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic

Opponent: Old Dominion

Performance: Two INT, won by two

Kyle Bolin, Louisville

Opponent: Kentucky

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by 14

Kavika Johnson, UTEP

Opponent: North Texas

Performance: Two FUM (one for TD), won by three

2015 Finalists

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Treon Harris, Florida: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: 2

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2

Thomas Woodson, Akron: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Kyle Bolin, Louisville: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 2

Jake Rudock, Michigan: 2

Marquise Williams, North Carolina: 2

It’s been a lovely season, unpredictable and strange in the best kind of college football way. Finally, this weekend, we will have the Playoff participants.