Thursday, October 29, 2009

Halloween Weekend Preview

Fright Night

Question: what happened to all the good games? Two full months into the season, we have only two contests slated to match up top 25 teams. There are several potential close games, but conference play is in full swing. How is nearly the entire top 25 playing unranked opponents? This is frustrating.

One answer is the trend of "superconferences" such as the Big 12, SEC and ACC. All these leagues added schools in the past 15-20 years to create 12-team conferences with two divisions. College football conferences generally have 10-20 percent good teams, 50-60 percent mediocre teams and 20-30 percent bad teams. By raising the number of participants to 12, these leagues watered down the competition: two patsies per league, as in the Pac-10 (Washington State and UCLA), becomes four in the SEC (Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee). The increasing willingness of voters to give mid-major schools credit could also explain why there are fewer ranked-vs-ranked games.

Of course, this means that the two primetime Halloween games are all the more visible and significant. Texas and Oklahoma State square off in Stillwater in a game that could decide the division (and thus conference) champion, while USC at Oregon figures to be the game of the year in the Pac 10.

I feel as though the Texas-OSU game comes down to whether the Cowboys realize that Colt McCoy only passes to Jordan Shipley, under five yards, or both. Shipley has caught nearly twice as many balls as any other Texas receiver this year. Missouri last week failed to recognize this and gave him at least five yards to operate on almost every play. The result was over 100 yards and two scores for Shipley. Texas' running game is spotty, so most of their offense funnels through McCoy and Shipley. Shut those two down and make someone else beat you, Pokes.

Offensively, the Cowboys are balanced and will get some help with the return of running back Kendall Hunter this week. Even without Dez Bryant, the passing attack has been solid for OSU, so I don't see Texas shutting them down. The score was 28-23 last year when these teams played and this game has the potential to be just as close. The Cowboys certainly have the ability to beat the Horns. They have to attack them from the opening kickoff to do it, though.

The Oregon-USC game hinges on a number of variables. I've really had a tough time with this one. The play of Matt Barkley is the first question. Will he be the rare underclassman who can handle Autzen Stadium, a la Kellen Moore? Or will he fall by the wayside like so many others have done? Barkley has a ton of confidence, but it remains to be seen whether this will boost him or kill him. The weather is another important factor. I think Oregon needs a rain-free night for their spread-option to work successfully. The Ducks will try to duplicate Oregon State's gameplan from last week, which involved putting receivers and backs in space and heavy passing to the tight end. It seems as if USC should have no problem containing jitterbug LaMichael James, but the same could be said for OSU's Jacquizz Rodgers, and he has shredded them last two years. James is faster than Rodgers, by the way.

The Oregon defense has been playing exceptionally well for about a month. Can it contain the Trojans' explosive offense? Barkley will be without his favorite target, tight end Anthony McCoy. The first fifteen minutes will be crucial for both teams - USC can't afford to get down big and Oregon can't afford to let the Trojans silence the crowd.

My final thought on this game is the eerie similarity between this contest and the teams' 2007 meeting in Eugene. In that game, USC came in with a young quarterback (Mark Sanchez). The Trojans had already lost an embarrassing game to a bad conference opponent (Stanford). And Oregon came in on a roll, with all the media asking "Can the Ducks upset USC?" Can they? I just don't know. 2009 Oregon is better defensively but weaker offensively. USC is down a little from their usual dominant, intimidating selves. Tomorrow's game should be incredibly entertaining, and I will try to give the best analysis I can over the weekend.

Quick Notes

As I write this post, West Virginia is in the process of losing to South Florida - the same team that just went 0-2 versus Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Some conferences talk about "teams beating each other" as a sign of strength (looking at you, SEC). However, I'm not sure you can make that argument with the Big East. The fact that the teams only play seven league games really dilutes their schedules, ensuring that all of them play at least one lower-division opponent. The best out-of-conference win the Big East has this year is Cincy over Oregon State. OK, but Arizona beat OSU too. Unless the nation sees more, they will remain unconvinced of the conference's legitimacy.

I hope I'm not misinterpreting the situation, but from what I understand, the NCAA's full-year suspension of Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant is patently unfair. Basically, Bryant met with former NFL star Deion Sanders (which is perfectly legal) and went to his house. While he was there, he sat in on a meeting in which Sanders and another individual discussed something that had nothing to do with football. When asked by the NCAA about the meeting, Bryant panicked and said he had never met Sanders. So his biggest crime was lying to the NCAA, for which he will never play college football again (Bryant is expected to enter the NFL Draft next spring). The NCAA claimed that it was not trying to "make an example" out of Bryant, but what other explanation is there? He was punished because he lied to the almighty NCAA, a discretion the antiquated and pompous organization can never forgive.

Close your eyes, because the Big 12 North is about to get ever uglier. Kansas State, the division leader du jour, looks incredibly overmatched against Oklahoma this week, and second-place Iowa State (Iowa State?) faces Texas A&M, who KO'd Texas Tech last weekend. Kansas and Nebraska, meanwhile, face Texas Tech and Baylor, respectively. We could be headed for a ridiculously complex division race in which no team finishes better than 4-4 in conference play. Ugh. A division of mediocrity indeed.

Virginia Tech's midweek loss to North Carolina wasn't exactly shocking. I know I picked them as favorites to win out after last weekend, but I reconsidered when I saw the product the Hokies had on the field in the first half. VT simply doesn't look like they have improved at all since the start of the season and they deserved to lose to UNC. This doesn't have any relevance on the ACC race any longer (because Georgia Tech is going to run away with the title!) but it could have a huge impact on the BCS standings. The more the Hokies lose, the worse Alabama's record looks, which could undercut the SEC's efforts to get two teams in BCS bowls. So quite frankly, if you're a fan of real college football and not the bluster and arrogance of the SEC, root for VT to lose from here on out. Simple.

Central Michigan plays Boston College this week in a game that is more important than it might appear at first glance. Chippewas quarterback Dan LeFevour has a chance to really impress voters if he can lead his team to an upset and I hope he does. LeFevour has been the Tim Tebow of the Midwest for the last three years, just without the media fawning. He already showed off his skills in a 29-27 upset of Michigan State in September when CMU scored the final nine points in the last minute. He has had a great career and deservers Heisman consideration.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Week 8 Review

National Overview

It was a wild weekend, as several games went down to the wire even though there was only one matchup of top 25 teams. I got a lot of quality football in, which should make up for next weekend when I'll be spending most of my day at Autzen Stadium.

The biggest upset occurred in the ACC, when Miami (FL) shockingly went down in overtime to Clemson. Virginia Tech was off and Georgia Tech blasted Virginia, so once again we have a new pecking order in the Coastal Division. The Yellow Jackets have already played six conference games, so all they have to do is beat Wake Forest and Duke. That's not exactly a tall order, but I'll temper my enthusiasm until the games are won.

Both Florida and Alabama survived playing poorly against bad teams. Again. Why exactly are these considered the two best teams in the country? Florida survived an awful Mississippi State team despite two pick-sixes and Alabama got incredibly lucky in blocking a Tennessee field goal attempt as time expired. The credibility of the mighty SEC has been (gasp) called into question the last couple of weeks and this will do nothing but increase the cries of "overrated" from the tired, huddled masses. Rise up, brave friends! Throw off your oppressors and refuse to accept the East Coast bias!

I expected that Oklahoma would further expose Kansas. I didn't expect to see Missouri get its doors blown off by Texas. A Longhorn win, sure, but not a blowout. Texas silenced a lot of critics (including me) with that performance, their best of the season. But what about the rest of the Big 12? A week after crushing Nebraska, Texas Tech got killed by a terrible Texas A&M team that had just gotten blown out by a bad Kansas State team. If that wasn't enough, Nebraska turned the ball over an astonishing eight times and lost at home to Iowa State. What is happening in this conference? I'll still go with Texas as the obvious choice for the title, but outside of that I have absolutely no idea.

Cincinnati predictably ripped apart Louisville, but the story in the Big East was the hurting Pittsburgh laid on South Florida. The Panthers are now the undisputed top challenger to the Bearcats. West Virginia is still hanging around, but I think it's pretty safe to say the season finale matching Cincy and Pitt will decide the conference title. Connecticut also showed a lot of heart in taking the Mountaineers to the wire in Morgantown after their emotional week.

The Big 10 breathed a huge sigh of relief when Iowa squeaked past Michigan State on a last-second miracle, keeping alive the league's hopes (however improbable) for two BCS berths. Ohio State rebounded from the Purdue loss in a big way, while the Boilermakers continued their sudden success with a win over Illinois. But the surprise was the way Penn State dismantled Michigan. I thought these two teams were evenly matched and gave the edge to the Wolverines because they were at home, but I was way off on that one.

The Pac-10 action was, with one notable exception, a little disappointing. Stanford simply out-muscled Arizona State and Arizona would have blown out UCLA if not for several turnovers. Cal-Washington State was the one-sided game everyone thought it would be too. The biggest flop was Washington's performance against Oregon. I really expected the Huskies to make things tough for the Ducks after reading all week about how they had a chance to win. Once again, the pundits were wrong. Oregon State had the most impressive performance of the week, even in defeat. The Beavers exposed USC's defense even more than Notre Dame did and could have pulled off a huge upset if things had gone their way in the last few minutes. I'm not sure how people can keep repeating that USC is a dominant team when their defense plays so undisciplined and sloppy.

Of course, the Oregon and Southern Cal wins set up an titanic showdown in Eugene on Halloween night. Who will win this game? I'll preview the matchup in-depth later this week, which in all likelihood will decide the Pac-10 Champion.

Boise State knocked off hapless Hawai'i late Saturday, but the most important game of the weekend (at least, to the BCS) turned into a beatdown in Provo. For the second straight year, TCY smashed BYU into oblivion, which presents a big problem for the voters. TCU has begun to assert itself as a BCS-worthy team, which bodes ill for Boise State's hopes. In fact, the Horned Frogs have passed the Broncos in the BCS standings already.

On the polls

I really don't know what the voters have been watching that I've missed. Florida regained the top spot in the AP poll this week thanks to their win over Mississippi State and Alabama's close win over Tennessee. These are two close wins over terrible teams. Need I remind anyone that UCLA, the second-worst Pac-10 team, beat Tennessee at Neyland by four? If they were power rankings, as they should be, the polls would move both the Gators and Crimson Tide down. Alas, that's not going to happen until one of them loses.

1) Texas

The Longhorns had their most complete performance of the season by far, beating Missouri 41-7. Coupled with the Oklahoma win (and the poor showings of other top teams), Texas has done enough to earn the top spot. Colt McCoy also looked like his old self for the first time this year.

2) USC

While it was way closer than it should have been, the Oregon State win counts for a lot. The Beavers are very good and will be in the top 25 by the end of the season. The defense has really become a cause for concern, though. The duel in Eugene this week will finally answer whether the Trojans are for real.

3) Alabama

Man, every week an SEC team seems to get lucky. This time it was Alabama, blocking a field goal to knock off Tennessee. The game was at home and the Volunteers are very bad, so I have to knock the Tide down right now. My previous concern - whether the passing game could come through in the clutch - has become a big issue.

4) Florida

Another stinky offensive performance, particularly in the red zone. Florida has to find something other than "Tebow, dive left" to gain consistent yardage. Mississippi State has no business running back two interceptions on the Gators, who continue to look very vulnerable.

5) Cincinnati

No Tony Pike, no problem. Pike's Heisman hopes might have disappeared with the way his team sliced up bumbling Louisville without him, but Cincinnati probably doesn't mind as long as they keep winning. The Pittsburgh game is looking huge now.

6) Boise State

They completely obliterated Hawai'i, but it was still Hawai'i. The only reason BSU is holding on to this spot is that Oregon win - I can't move the Ducks over the Broncos in good conscience. Yet. If Boise State wins a few more games ugly and Oregon keeps winning, I might have to swap the teams.

7) Oregon

All the worries about a fired-up Washington crowd and team evaporated by halftime. Washington might not be great (see - Oregon game), but they're at least good (see - USC game), and the Ducks went right through them. Now we get into the realm of ifs... If Oregon beats USC next week, if Oregon can beat Stanford... or Oregon State... then what? We'll just have to wait and see.

8) TCU

I thought the Horned Frogs would win, but whoa. That BYU game got out of hand fast. Barring a major upset, TCU's only remaining test comes versus Utah, at home, in three weeks. Can you say "BCS?" That beatdown of the Cougars was impressive.

9) Iowa

Say what you will about Florida and Alabama. Iowa has more luck than the Tide and Gators combined. Yet another miracle finish, this time against Michigan State, has positioned the Hawkeyes to grab the Big 10's BCS berth, but does any team in that conference really deserve it?

10) LSU

LSU dominated Auburn Saturday night, although the other Tigers had already shown that they weren't much of a threat. Iowa stays ahead of LSU because the Hawkeyes are at least going on the road to win their close games. If LSU wins impressively the next few weeks, they'll move up.

11) Georgia Tech

The Ramblin' Wreck sidestepped a potential landmine at Virginia and kept their offense rolling. With Miami (FL) losing, Tech suddenly finds itself atop the division and in prime position to win the ACC title. The job head coach Paul Johnson is doing in Atlanta is incredible. If they stay focused, the Yellow Jackets will be in for a special year.

12) Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech was on a bye week, but I kept them up in my rankings because I sincerely believe they would beat everyone below them. One thing lost in the Georgia Tech defeat was how well Tyrod Taylor passed the ball, something he has not been known for. I don't expect this team to collapse, as they still have an outside shot at an at-large BCS bid.

13) Houston

The Cougars have played themselves into a pretty nice spot, and they'll get respect because of their non-conference success early in the year. But can the voters look past the fluke loss to UTEP? Probably not, because Houston is still trailing Oklahoma State.

14) Oklahoma State

A win over Baylor isn't too impressive, but don't worry. The Cowboys will get a great chance to fully legitimize themselves with this week's Texas game. Huge implications in this one, as OSU could still win the Big 12 South with an upset here.

15) Penn State

Finally, a win over a respectable team. We might have overrated Michigan nationally after their hot start, but beating the Wolverines 35-10 on the road is still pretty sweet. Perhaps there's still hope for conference title. It's important to note that the Big 10 has no tiebreakers, thus all JoePa's guys need is one Iowa loss to claim the crown.

16) Pittsburgh

When Pitt is on like they are now, things get nasty. The Panthers smacked South Florida around this week and have the look of a top 15 squad. All they have to avoid now is the West Virginia trap game to set up a barnburner against Cincinnati for the Big East title.

17) Oklahoma

The Sooners dropped out of the polls last week, but obviously the voters didn't really think the team was that bad, because they jumped them right back in after the win versus overrated Kansas. The Sooners can still be a player in the Big 12 South division race - one Texas loss, and the field is leveled. Sounds crazy, but remember last year?

18) Ohio State

Minnesota's not good, but Ohio State did to them what good teams do - blew them out. The Buckeyes get one easy week, then it's back to work against Penn State and Iowa. The offense is still an enigma, but you never know. Terrelle Pryor could very well redeem himself and get his team a conference title by the time everything is said and done.

19) Arizona

Once again, you have to wonder about that play against Washington. The Wildcats are oh-so-close to being 6-1 and ranked in the top 15. They are rolling right now, but the schedule is about to get a lot tougher. How they handle the pressure of being favored to win games will show whether the team is ready to make the jump to great.

20) Oregon State

They lost to USC and are 4-3. Well, Oklahoma's 4-3 too. I was very impressed by OSU's performance against the Trojans Saturday, which almost stole them a win. Let's face it, this team is going to keep improving and will be in the top 25 by season's end, so I figure I might as well get them there now.

21) West Virginia

A nice win over a fired-up Connecticut team and WVU is sitting at 6-1. No, there are no real quality wins, but that's why I have the Mountaineers at No. 21. They have a big game with Cincinnati in a few weeks, but the South Florida game this weekend will probably be the best measure of how good West Virginia is.

22) Central Michigan

I had to get these guys on here. They're 7-1, the only loss is at Arizona and they beat Michigan State on the road. The MAC is weak, but this team is likely going to go 11-1 and they should be ranked for that. Hey, Iowa got credit for beating Sparty, so why not CMU?

23) South Carolina

Only ranked because I really couldn't find any deserving teams. A 14-10 win against Vanderbilt is nothing special and the Ole Miss win still hasn't really done them any favors. They're 6-2, which is more than most teams can say, and they played Alabama tough. I'm not enthusiastic about them, though.

24) Notre Dame

Yeah, I feel a little sick seeing this name here too. I certainly didn't move them into my poll because of the Boston College win. The USC game looked pretty good, though, and the shutout of Nevada in the first week deserves applause. Like South Carolina, there simply wasn't another team out there I thought earned a spot in the rankings.

25) Navy

Navy, I like, and not just because they run the flexbone like Georgia Tech (although it doesn't hurt). It may surprise you to learn that the Midshipmen are 6-2 and almost knocked off Ohio State. Notre Dame is the only tough team left on their schedule, so I foresee a nice record by December (I do think the Irish win that game, thus their higher ranking). But how can you not love a team that wins without throwing a pass?

Random Thoughts and Observations

ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook, who writes under the moniker "TMQ" (for Tuesday Morning Quarterback) has brought up this issue the past few seasons, but I think it's still worth talking about: Why can't announcers get the terms "reverse" and "end around" right?

An end around is when a player, usually a receiver, runs horizontally toward the quarterback and takes a handoff with the intent of running outside. The play has recently been used with pre-snap motion and gained notoriety as the "fly sweep," although the original name is "end around" because the X receiver or "split end" takes the ball around the opposite side of the offensive line he started from, where he will cut outside the block of the tight end. This is different from a reverse, in which a running back or receiver hands off to another back/receiver after the quarterback has already handed or pitched him the ball. Hence the name "reverse" - the ball travels in one direction, then goes back the other way. In an end around, the ball carrier simply runs wide, so the ball never changes direction. It's frustrating to watch a game in which announcers constantly yell "Reverse!" when the play is just a sweep to the outside via the end around. This may seem like nitpicking, but commentators are paid to know football. Can't they figure out the difference between the two plays?

Florida was the recipient of another suspicious call Saturday when officials incorrectly ruled that linebacker Dustin Doe scored on a game-clinching interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. A look at the replay clearly shows that Doe dropped the ball before crossing the plane of the goal line. Instead of a Mississippi State fumble recovery, however, the play was ruled a touchdown. Florida went on to win 29-19.

My question is, at what point do the Gators pay for all the bad calls they've been receiving? Teams that get by like Florida has been doing usually suffer defeats when their luck runs out. How long can Florida last?

As an addendum to the Florida game, I have to talk about Tim Tebow. I know it sounds as if I'm harping on the guy. I'm not trying to. But I watched Tebow go 12-22 with only 127 yards and no touchdowns (with two picks, both returned for touchdowns) against a dreadful MSU team, then saw Tebow listed as second on the Heisman list on Monday's College Football Live. He was also listed first on Bleacher Report's weekend roundup. By what measure is he a Heisman candidate?! Tebow has 14 total touchdowns in seven games this season. Listen to these stats:

2734 passing yards.
70 percent completion rate.
20 touchdowns.
4 interceptions.

Those are the numbers of Houston's Case Keenum. Compare them to Tebow's:

1159 yards.
63 percent completions.
8 touchdowns.
4 interceptions.

Keenum outranks Tebow in every statistical category - passing efficiency, yards, touchdowns, completion percentage - except picks, in which the two are tied. But wait - Tebow has played a much harder schedule, right? Well, let's examine that claim.

Both Florida and Houston played a FCS (Football Championship Subdivision, formally 1-AA) opponent, so you can throw those out. The teams also both played at Mississippi State. Tebow's line? 127 yards, no TD's, two picks. Keenum's? 434 yards, four TD's, two interceptions. Yikes.

Florida's combined opponents have 26 wins, while Houston's have 22. This is close. But the number is deceiving, as Florida plays in the SEC, where teams regularly pad their schedules with non-conference games against Sun Belt teams, the weakest conference in the country. To Florida's credit, Troy is the best team in the Sun Belt. Impressive. But Florida's opponents have played four games against the Sun Belt to just one for Houston's. While Houston's opponents have played more FCS competition, not one of Florida's opponents has beaten a current top 25 team. Houston's opponents have one such win - UTEP over Houston, a game in which Keenum's offense threw up 41 points.

Finally, if you throw out common wins (wins over the same schools by Florida and Houston's opponents), you get this measure of success - wins over BCS-conference teams.

Florida's opponents: Louisville, Auburn (twice), Washington, Mississippi State

Houston's opponents: Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Nebraska

That looks pretty even to me. I'm not saying Houston is a better team than Florida. But Keenum is a better quarterback than Tebow.

With that long and drawn-out argument, let's move on...

It's said that everyone thinks they have a perfect playoff system, so you might as well hear mine.The problem is that any number of teams greater than eight makes the playoff take too long. With a 16-team playoff, you would have four weeks to determine a champion, and the bowls already take long enough as it is. With an eight-team system, you can also make sure that only the most deserving teams get in. Why is that? Because there are 11 FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision, formerly 1-A) conferences. With a 16-team format, you would be allowing teams that did not win their conference championship to compete for the national title. I have long had a problem with this - if you can't win your own league, you can't win the top trophy. It just doesn't make sense.

Once we have established an eight-team limit, the rest of the picture becomes clearer. There are six BCS conferences, which are the hardest ones top-to-bottom (despite the recent rise of the Mountain West). Therefore, the winners of the Pac-10, Big 10, Big 12, SEC, ACC and Big East are in, followed by the two highest-ranked conference champions of the non-BCS leagues. We can use the BCS to rank the teams and move forward from there. Last year, using my system, the playoff would have looked like the following:

1) Oklahoma
8) Boise State

4) Penn State
5) Virginia Tech

3) USC
6) Cincinnati

2) Florida
7) Utah

Think about the contests we would have seen under this format! A rematch of Boise State-Oklahoma, a potential USC-Florida game in the second round (that is, if Utah didn't knock off the Gators first). Penn State-Virginia Tech would have been a brilliant defensive battle too, and best of all, we'd know for sure who the best team was.

Of course, this leaves out one-loss Alabama and Texas. Well, those teams didn't win their conference. Sorry. Texas had a right to complain about the Sooners winning the Big 12 South, but that was due to the conference's stupid tiebreaker rules, not the BCS.

Additionally, the games could be set up to end the same time they do now, in the first week of January. The first round would be played the third weekend of December (when the bowls begin now) and the championship game would fall where it should - New Year's Day. That's when the college football season should end. I hate how it's been moved all the way to a week later. The other bowls could still be played, interspersed throughout the playoffs. They don't mean anything now, and they still won't with the new system.

Unfortunately, we're stuck with the BCS for a few more years. But someday, someway, I think the fans may get what they want. When college football does change to a playoff, this is the way it should go.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

Ndamukong Suh, DL, Nebraska

The Huskers' embarassing home loss to Iowa State was no fault of Suh's. Actually, considering how many times his offense turned it over, it's fair to wonder how the game would have gone without him. He ranks 22nd in the nation with seven pass breakups. As a lineman! That's just ridiculous. Only one other non-defensive back ranks in the top 50.

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

The Tennessee game demonstrated why I don't like giving the Heisman to running backs. Ingram is good, but it's definitely fair to wonder if he's a product of his great offensive line. The LSU game looming on the horizon will show the nation if he can compete with a top-shelf defense.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

McCoy finally showed up this weekend! One great game doesn't really deserve a spot on the list, but I think this is the beginning of an upswing for him. His competition - outside of the Oklahoma State game - is going to get easier, and he'll start racking up the stats. Playing for a national title contender doesn't hurt either. But he's still second thanks to...

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

I talked about it already. Keenum has great stats and has been a great leader. He's been the best quarterback in the country over the first half of the season and the Heisman has gone to a quarterback eight of the last nine years. One more stat for you: he leads the nation in "points responsible for" per game at 20.29, over one and a half points more than the nearest competitor.

You want to know where Tebow ranks, don't you? Admit it.

He's tied with the likes of Tennessee's Jonathan Crompton at 37th - 12.00 points a game.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Mid-week preview

BCS Rankings Week 2 Preview

I didn't want to go over the whole country again, but I felt as if I should preview some of this week's games and talk about what I will be watching for. The most analysis will be about the Pac-10, as that's where the real action will be taking place.

Looking down the top 25, there are a host of potential upsets, but not a whole lot of guaranteed great contests.

In the Big 10, Iowa-Michigan State has a chance to be close one. Sparty has been hot ever since their upset of rival Michigan and Iowa has played to the level of their competition a lot, so MSU could pull off the upset with the home crowd in their favor. I think Penn State might get upset by Michigan as well, but can you really call it an upset when the home team is just as good as the highly overrated Nittany Lions?

It would be a shock to see either Miami (FL) or Georgia Tech go down, as both teams are playing inferior ACC opponents in Clemson and Virginia. Virginia has played well since their awful start that included a loss to William and Mary, but I see only one way they could beat the Ramblin’ Wreck - their 3-4 defense, which is rarely seen in college, could frustrate Tech with their outside speed.

Texas plays a decent Missouri team on the road, so I can see a possible upset there. The Longhorns have gotten off to slow starts this season, a habit that historically has ended up killing good teams. The best matchup of the week is definitely Oklahoma-Kansas, though, as we get to see the beginning of what will probably be the post-Bradford era for the Sooners.

The SEC has a couple of snoozers. Both Florida and Alabama have looked vulnerable at times this year (Florida far more so), but it would be very surprising if either team lost to Mississippi State or Tennessee, respectively.

The Big East's lone good game appears to be Pittsburgh versus South Florida. Either team can stay in the conference race with a win or have their hopes severely damaged with a loss. I think Pitt, at home, takes this one.

The Pac-10 has the most exciting situation this week, as every team plays a conference opponent. The only blatant mismatch is Cal-Washington State. UCLA-Arizona is a very important game for both teams, as Arizona can solidify their standing as a top Pac-10 team with a win and UCLA is desperate to avoid going 0-4 in conference play. 'Zona should probably take that game. The late game, Stanford-Arizona State is an exceedingly even pairing between one team reeling from two consecutive losses and another on top of the world after a miracle finish last week. I think Stanford is a better team, although their last two games have given me cause for concern. The Cardinal at home still seem to be the logical choice.

Then, of course, there are the two heavyweight battles involving the Oregon teams.

The Oregon-Washington rivalry looks to be back with all its former ferocity and the Huskies would love to end the Ducks' five-game winning streaks - one during this season, the other against UW. Can they pull it off? Washington has looked both great and terrible at times this season and could realistically have anywhere between a 1-6 and a 6-1 record right now. At home, they're nasty, and Locker gives them a shot. However, the return of Jeremiah Masoli might tip the odds back toward the Ducks.

In the case of Oregon State-USC, I can't make up my mind. USC hasn't lost to the same Pac-10 opponent in consecutive years since Pete Carroll took over, and the Trojans have talked confidently about how they won't be taken by surprise by Jacquizz Rodgers again. But that kind of confidence got them a 27-21 slap in the face last year. In the end, the over-reliance of the OSU offense on the Rodgers brothers makes the difference to me. USC can take the game plan Oregon employed in the 2008 Civil War to shut down the Beaver offense. Still... there's always the question about mental lapses with the Trojans.

The best game across the country takes place in none of the BCS conferences, though. The big Mountain West clash featuring TCU and BYU goes down this week in Provo, and all eyes will be on the Horned Frogs and Cougars. Both of these teams are likely BCS-worthy, but there's only one guaranteed spot available for mid-majors. This ends up being an elimination game for both squads. A TCU win could also push them past Boise State in the polls, or at least closer to the Broncos. The Horned Frogs' quirky 4-2-5 defense is perfectly suited to defend the Cougars' finely honed spread attack. Keep in mind, TCU won 32-7 last year. I think they'll do it again, though if the BYU team that beat Oklahoma shows up, look out.

Quick Notes

I missed it during the game, but Nick Holt's meltdown was the talk of the Pac-10 this Monday. Essentially, the Washington defensive coordinator yelled at his players, yelled at a TV cameraman filming him and then skipped the postgame press conference after his defense's epic collapse in the final moments of the Huskies' loss to ASU. ESPN’s Ted Miller wrote a good piece on this that I completely agree with. How can a coach keep the respect of his players, fans, or the media when he acts like this? Holt's actions were immature and foolish.

The SEC suspended the officiating crew responsible for the Arkansas-Florida and Georgia-LSU debacles. This is a good decision, even if it is just a little bit of retrospective saving face. All ESPN commentators, from both Sportscenter and College Football Live, said it was a good idea. Really? Then why didn't any of those same commentators mention the poor officiating after the game last Saturday or any day this week before the suspension was handed down? In every program I watched - and trust me, I watched a lot - all the analysts praised Florida for their "resolve" and "toughness" in coming back, while never once mentioning that without those calls they would have lost! With coverage like that, it's not hard to guess why many SEC fans think the conference is in Florida's pocket.

I suppose I should mention the tragic death of Connecticut defensive back Jasper Howard, who, if you haven't heard, was stabbed outside a school dance last weekend. How strange that he left the Miami area to escape its high crime levels. Just a sad, sad story.

The Heisman campaigns for high-profile quarterbacks Colt McCoy (Texas), Tim Tebow (Florida) and Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame) baffle me. What argument do these players have?

Clausen has indeed looked poised and efficient this season, but Notre Dame has lost to the two best teams it has played and beat a bunch of bad teams in the last minute. The Heisman winner has always had signature wins, so scratch Clausen on that count. Additionally, I'm not sure if I've ever seen an alleged Heisman candidate with as poor an attitude as Clausen. This is significant because the Heisman is always supposed to go to an individual that demonstrates leadership qualities on and off the field. Every time I've watched Clausen this year, I've seen him taunt opponents and yell at coaches, teammates and the refs. For that alone, he should not be considered.

McCoy has been extremely good in previous seasons, but right now something is wrong with his game. He has just looked off all year and his stats reflect it. Consider that his completion percentage is down more than six percent from last year, his efficiency rating is the lowest in his career, and he is on track for his worst TD-to-INT ratio ever as well, having already thrown seven picks to eleven touchdowns. McCoy is still a good quarterback, but he is living off his reputation from previous seasons. He shouldn't win the Heisman for his great career.

Tebow is probably the most hated player in the country, so it's easy to pick him out and call him overrated. That's not what I'm trying to do. The truth is that his performance has simply not been up to his golden standard this season. His stats have steadily declined since his ridiculous 55-TD Heisman year in 2007. In 2008 this was permissible because he did not have to shoulder literally the entire offense by himself, but this year he has had to revert to 2007 form and he is still on track for his worst statistical season ever. If his numbers hold true for the second half of the season, Tebow will throw for his lowest yardage total, his fewest touchdown passes and his lowest efficiency rating in his career. He will also rush for the fewest touchdowns and have the lowest yards per carry of his career. The SEC is also not as tough as it was two years ago. Just because he's a great player doesn't mean he is the greatest player - a distinction ESPN seems to have missed, as every one of their pundits will tell you Tebow is either first or second in the Heisman race right now. The argument that "he just wins" doesn't fly anymore because he's playing with the best defense in the country. It's time to give up the charade and admit that while he is a very good player, Tebow is not Heisman-worthy.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Adventures in Officiating

National Overview

As many people probably noticed, there were some extremely questionable penalties called this weekend, most notably in South Bend and Gainesville. Both USC and Arkansas fans have a right to be upset; in one case the team managed to eke out a win despite the officials because they were just better, in the other the team couldn't overcome the terrible position they were put in.

This situation can best be described as the "BCS penalty," which is explained in its entirety here. To paraphrase this well-written article, the BCS penalty is when a top-level team involved in a close game gets a very questionable call go their way. This is more or less exactly what happened this weekend. I will elaborate on the Florida-Arkansas and USC-Notre Dame games later.

The top teams across the country generally avoided big upsets this weekend, with the exception of Ohio State going down at Purdue and Virginia Tech's loss at Georgia Tech. In the SEC, Alabama and Florida won ugly, but they remain the best teams in the league. The Big 10 saw Iowa solidify its place atop the conference, while Cincinnati proved definitively they are the Big East's best team. In other leagues, though, the picture became very muddled.

The Georgia Tech upset of the 4th-ranked Hokies threw the ACC Coastal into disarray. Now Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech all have one conference loss - to each other. Could we be headed for a repeat of the Big 12 South last year? I hope the ACC's tiebreaker rules make more sense than the Big 12's, because this might get crazy. The Hurricanes and Hokies have played tougher schedules, so my vote right now would go to the 'Canes because they don't have a second loss. I still think any of those three teams will smash whoever comes out of the Atlantic, though.

The Big 12 South was probably decided on Saturday with Texas' win over Oklahoma, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Longhorns drop a game somewhere. The Sooners outplayed them for most of the game and looked to have the better quarterback too. Texas has been living on the edge and as Notre Dame proved, eventually that will come back to bite you.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech and Colorado threw two huge wrenches into the Big 12 North race by knocking off Nebraska and Kansas, respectively. Both losses were really bad, as Nebraska got run (or should I say passed?) off their own field by 21 and Kansas lost to, well, Colorado. That's the same Colorado team that got blown out by Toledo earlier this year. Both the Cornhuskers and Jayhawks lost a lot of national respect this week, though their contest will probably decide the divisional title.

Finally, the Pac-10 showed that it might be the deepest conference in the country, as Cal beat UCLA on the road, Arizona survived a wild shootout with Stanford and ASU beat Washington on a miracle last-second pass. The argument the SEC has been making for the past few years - that no team can be taken lightly because everyone is good - can be applied to the Pac-10 this season. Outside of Washington State (which actually has improved some), there are about six or seven teams that are virtually indistinguishable from each other. Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA and Cal are almost exactly as good as one another. There are some differences - I would put UCLA near the bottom of that list, with Cal and Arizona closer to the top - but any of those teams could beat any of the others. Oregon State is slightly ahead of that group, with Oregon and USC at the top of the league, but the Pac-10 really is a mystery right now.

As I said earlier, Iowa appears to be the class of the Big 10. Penn State beat a decent Minnesota team, but there is still really nothing to get excited about with the Nittany Lions. Ohio State was headed for a fall because of the way their offense was performing, but no one saw it coming at Purdue. Something is seriously wrong with the Buckeyes. Their game with Iowa should decide the conference champion, but would anyone be surprised if they lost again before then? I'm still not totally sold on Iowa because of how ugly some of their wins have been, but they have been wins.

Cincinnati showed Thursday night that South Florida didn't even belong on the same field as them. Playing without their quarterback, on the road, the Bearcats still managed a comfortable win. Pittsburgh is the only team left on their schedule I think can challenge Cincy. It's not unrealistic for Cincinnati fans to start thinking about an undefeated season, as their team looks to be the best team in the Big East by far. Even if they go 12-0, though, will they get a shot at the national championship? I have my doubts - voters don't seem to have a lot of love for the conference.

There's not a whole lot to say about the SEC this week (other than the obvious, which I will address later). Alabama predictably beat South Carolina, although their offense definitely underperformed. Florida got the win against a highly inferior Arkansas team, and everything else is pretty much irrelevant. The Tide and Gators are on a collision course for the SEC title game. If the teams played right now, though, I'm confident 'Bama would win by three touchdowns.

In non-BCS land, Boise State hung on for an extremely unimpressive win over an inept Tulsa squad, TCU clobbered a mediocre Colorado State team and Utah beat UNLV. BYU also delivered a win versus San Diego State, but only by ten. TCU seems to be the best of this group right now, and the pollsters obviously have started to notice. Notre Dame put up a surprisingly good fight against USC, but their loss should remove them from any major-bowl discussion.

On the polls

There wasn't anything too egregious in the big two polls this week. Alabama deservedly hopped Florida for the top spot, while Oklahoma was again rewarded for their tough schedule and TCU got some love. Here is my top 25. Remember, in the interest of fairness, I reevaluate each team every week.

1) Alabama

The Tide beat a top 25 team, even if that team had absolutely no offense. Alabama's own offensive struggles were a bit concerning, but this is still the best team in the country.

2) Texas

I really didn't want to move Texas up. Oklahoma outplayed the Horns and completely shut down their offense for most of the game. In the end, though, they did beat a ranked opponent in a goofy, sloppy game.

3) USC

USC gets the benefit of the doubt once again, as that near-collapse against Notre Dame would have been devastating. The Trojans look more susceptible to mental lapses than at any other point during the Carroll era. They should have easily won this week, but let the Irish hang around. Still, they would beat almost anyone in a one-game scenario.

4) Cincinnati

The Bearcats strength of schedule is weak, it's true. They haven't and won't play any truly elite teams. But consider this chain of victories: USF-Florida State-BYU. South Florida beat Florida State by double digits on the road, who beat BYU in the same fashion. If you believe the Cougars are good, as I do, then Cincy has to be in the top 5.

5) Florida

Massive problems in the pass game are nothing new. But not on the ground. The Gators were stopped dead by the SEC's worst defense for three quarters until some questionable calls turned the game around. They're not the best team in their conference, let alone the nation, and I'm treating the Arkansas game as a virtual loss.

6) Miami (FL)

The Virginia Tech loss doesn't look quite as good now, but I'm still a believer. With all things now equal in the ACC Coastal, the 'Canes have a great shot at winning the entire league. USF is the only team left on their schedule that can come close to hanging with them and that's a non-conference game.

7) Iowa

Somehow, someway, this team wins. Their quarterback is inconsistent and their defense plays hot and cold too, but all that matters is the zero in the loss column. I moved them past Boise State because Wisconsin is tougher than Tulsa.

8) Boise State

The Broncos needed to make a statement against the best team left on their schedule and they failed to deliver. The Tulsa win was on the road, which is about the only thing BSU has to offer the pollsters right now.

9) Oregon

The Ducks got the benefit of a timely bye week: teams ahead of them lost and they got to nurse their wounds. I don't usually like moving teams up without a reason, but I think the national media has underrated Oregon.

10) LSU

The Tigers were in the same situation as Oregon. They've played some ugly ball over the first month-ish of the season, but maybe they'll get on track with a bye week and time to focus. They have more talent than almost everyone on their schedule, so it's hard to imagine them not winning most of their games.

11) Georgia Tech

I hoped, I wished, I dared to dream. My beloved Yellow Jackets came through in a big way this weekend, knocking off Virginia Tech and thrusting themselves into ACC title talk. I didn't think this team could be a major player because of their awful defense, but they got the win over the Hokies regardless. Their prospects are still questionable because of that D (they could just as easily lose a game they shouldn't), but as long as the offense is functioning they have a chance.

12) TCU

OK, it was Colorado State, but the Horned Frogs delivered a shellacking this weekend. TCU has BCS-conference talent in a good league. This ranking is pending the big game against BYU next week. I think TCU is better and they have a blueprint from Florida State on how to beat the Cougars.

13) Virginia Tech

I still think VT is really good, but you have to knock them for their loss this week. Their offense is shaky, but the Hokie's hallmark has always been defense. That's why the game against Georgia Tech was so surprising. Now we'll see if these guys can bounce back and still compete for an ACC title.

14) BYU

The San Diego State win was less than spectacular, but it's possible BYU was looking ahead to TCU next week. The winner of that game gets a big leg up in the Mountain West race. Let's revisit this team in a week's time.

15) Houston

Houston has looked good the last two games and the UTEP loss is looking more and more like a fluke. There's no reason to believe they can't run the table the rest of the way and set themselves up for a Conference USA title. With a little luck, they could play their way into a BCS bowl.

16) Oklahoma State

I'm ready to give the Cowboys some credit after the win over Missouri. The Tigers aren't great, but they're decent, and the more Houston wins the better the Pokes look. If they can stay healthy, I wonder if they can upset Texas.

17) Penn State

The Nittany Lions get to move up by virtue of the losses ahead of them. Shutting out Minnesota is a little something to hang your hat on, but PSU needs to beat Michigan and Ohio State to have even a shred of credibility.

18) Utah

They won handily over an inferior UNLV team, but the Utes probably won't be challenged for several weeks. All they need to do right now is lurk in the weeds while other teams fall. If they take care of business, we could be looking at some highly ranked showdowns against TCU and BYU.

19) Pittsburgh

I liked what I saw against Rutgers, even though the win was only by seven points. When the running game is going, this team is hard to beat. They'll definitely be tested over the last half of the season, but right now I think this is the best challenger to Cincinnati in the Big East. There could be a great showdown with the Bearcats in the last week if the Panthers keep winning.

20) Texas Tech

Where did that come from? Texas Tech, never known for their defense under Mike Leach, crushed Nebraska in Lincoln last week. All of a sudden this Tech team is looking formidable and their losses - to Texas and Houston - are quite respectable.

21) Ohio State

Wow, did I call that one or what? I said the defense would break down eventually - I just didn't know "eventually" meant "next week." Ohio State was absolutely horrid on offense for three quarters and their defense paid for it. You can't go three-and-out all the time and expect to stop anyone. Your defenders will just get tired. I don't know how to project this team anymore.

22) Oklahoma

I know, they're 3-3. But I just can't believe Oklahoma is going to fold up and die this season. They looked way better than Texas on Saturday, particularly on defense. Oklahoma is better than Kansas, Texas Tech and in all likelihood Oklahoma State. The losses have come by a combined five points to teams ranked 3rd, 8th and 16th.

23) Arizona

If not for a bizarre fluke interception in Seattle, the Wildcats would be 5-1 with the only loss at Iowa. As it stands now, they're tied for second in the conference and have been remarkably resilient in close games. This might be the third-best team in the Pac-10. Remember, they did beat Oregon State on the road.

24) Michigan

I don't give them much credit for annihilating Delaware State, but they did win and deserve to move up because of other teams' losses. I'm interested to see how they do versus Penn State this weekend. With a win, the Wolverines are a Big 10 player; with a loss, they could be in for a (completely ridiculous and undeserved) quarterback controversy.

25) Nebraska

Ugh. A week after I sang the praises of their defense, the Blackshirts got rocked by Texas Tech. At least I was spot-on about the offense, which did absolutely nothing again. This time the Huskers paid for it. I still think they're the best team in their division, but that might not be saying much anymore.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I know you've been patiently waiting for my take on this weekend's officiating, so without further ado I shall reward you. Let's just say I was disgusted.

In the USC-Notre Dame game, two very soft personal fouls were called on the Trojans for roughing the passer, including one that extended the Irish's final drive that almost tied the game. Then, after a Notre Dame pass fell incomplete with no time left, the officials reviewed the play and added a second back onto the clock! During the majority of football games, the clock runs an extra second or two on incomplete passes, runs that go out of bounds and field goals, because it's almost impossible to tell exactly when the play should be ruled over. However, in this instance the officials saw fit not only to review the play in question, but also differentiated between one and zero seconds on the game clock. Remember, there are no tenths of a second in football as there are in basketball, so the officials' task becomes even harder. The idea that they could determine definitively - what video review is based on - that there should be one second left is laughable.

USC's situation pales in comparison to the atrocity committed against Arkansas, though. The Razorbacks got absolutely hosed in the fourth quarter against Florida, epitomizing the so-called BCS penalty. There were several instances where Florida was favored, but I'll limit my discussion to the worst three.

On Florida's game-tying drive, an Arkansas defensive back looked back toward the ball as it was thrown to the end zone. There was minimal contact on the play and the pass was underthrown, making it nearly uncatchable. However, the Razorbacks were flagged for interference.

On the very next play, Florida threw a swing screen that went for a few yards to the far sideline. Afterwards, Arkansas was flagged for unnecessary roughness. The crime? As he followed the play, a defensive tackle noticed one of Florida's offensive linemen peeling off to deliver a blindside hit on him. He turned and shoved the Florida player to the ground. The play was not over and the hit was not hard at all, or even close to dirty. Thanks to these back-to-back 15-yard penalties, the Gators scored on the next play.

Finally, as Florida drove on what would be the game-winning drive, there was no call when a Florida receiver jumped through an Arkansas defensive back trying to catch the ball in the end zone. Offensive pass interference could easily have been the call.

All three plays can be found in sequence here, here and here. If you turn the volume up you can even hear the announcers saying how bad the penalties were.

I don't hate Florida. The Gators have great talent and Urban Meyer is an excellent coach. I do hate bad officiating. These are some of the worst calls I have ever seen, particularly the personal foul for unnecessary roughness. It makes me sick to think of how hard Arkansas played all game just to have the game taken out of their hands by a shady officiating crew. This was the same crew, by the way, that turned the Georgia-LSU game a few weeks ago into a circus by needlessly penalizing every player that moved in the fourth quarter. The SEC has to look into this.

With that unpleasant subject out of the play, I can mention some other things I saw this weekend:

Non-BCS schools have earned respect from the voters. Remember a few years back when a mid-major would have to go undefeated (or nearly undefeated) just to get ranked? Utah and Boise State's BCS bowl wins have clearly had an effect, as BYU and Utah are both ranked despite early losses. This is good for college football, as it might level the playing field just a little.

South Carolina is benefitting from its SEC status. The Gamecocks might deserve to be ranked later in the season when they win a few more games, but right now there is no justification for them to be in the top 25. They lost to the two best teams they played, including a highly overrated Georgia squad. Their big win was over an Ole Miss team that has now been exposed as the biggest fraud in the country. In fact, directly after that game, an ESPN commentator said that by virtue of their win South Carolina was "one of the 15 best teams in the country." What?! Both teams were overrated - their best combined win was by two points over 3-3 Kentucky. Please spare us the SEC prejudice, voters.

College Football Final had some interesting perspectives on why Boise State's strength of schedule is so poor. The Broncos play in the nation's second-worst conference, but it was noted that the school has had trouble getting big-name schools to play them because they might actually lose. The highly intelligent counterargument to this was that "teams like Florida and USC and Texas aren't scared to play Boise State. If you called any of those coaches, they'd say they have no problem playing BSU."

This is a completely misinformed argument. The truth is that no school wants any part of Boise State - it was a major coup for them to get even Oregon to agree to a home-and-home. Every school would love to play BSU on a single-game basis at home, like Georgia bravely did in 2005. Absolutely no one will agree to a fair home-and-home situation for fear of losing. By definition, this means that those schools are afraid to schedule Boise State. And if Texas pulled out of a game with Hawai'i in 2007, as they did, do you really think they want any part of the Broncos?

College Football Final also failed once again to do its duty as a balanced program. During the show, an analyst had a conversation with Texas coach Mack Brown in which the two discussed playing within the BCS system. Brown said his players had to be focused on "the games, not the system," which the analyst agreed had hurt the Longhorns last year. (In 2008, Oklahoma passed Texas in the BCS standings to win the Big 12 South in a tiebreaker despite the Horns victory over the Sooners head-to-head.) Both analyst and coach said the system was unfair.

The problem with this? In 2004, Cal was ranked 4th and Texas 5th with one week left in the season. The teams' losses had come to #1 USC and #2 Oklahoma, respectively. However, Brown publicly pleaded with voters to move the Texas past the Bears on their ballots because he thought his team was better. Lo and behold, the voters obliged, awarding Texas an automatic BCS bowl berth because of their #4 ranking. Cal was robbed of their first Rose Bowl in decades and several million dollars by being relegated to the Holiday Bowl.

Texas has probably benefitted from the BCS system more in one instance than any other team. They have absolutely nothing to whine about. I think the saying that best applies to this situation is "what goes around comes around." It's not hard to guess whether the analyst called Brown out on this as he should have.

The final thought I have is on a trend that has been growing steadily over the past few seasons. Most enjoyably, it involves Georgia Tech! I promised last week to expand on my love of the Yellow Jacket's offense, and here it is.

Georgia Tech runs a triple-option offense much like Florida's or Oregon's, but they do it out of the archaic flexbone formation rather than the sexier and more futuristic shotgun spread. The difference is that the flexbone places the quarterback under center, with three running backs around him: one on the left, one on the right and a fullback directly behind. The staple of the offense is the triple-option, in which one of the running backs goes in motion and the quarterback can choose to hand the ball up the middle to the fullback, keep it, or pitch it to the running back.

The offense - simple in nature, but extremely difficult to execute and defend - relies on quick decisions from the quarterback and misdirection to confuse the defense. Sound familiar? That's because it's the same principle that guides the read-option so many teams now run out of the shotgun. The advantages of running the flexbone are varied: the runners are closer to the line and can thus gain yardage faster; the defense has to worry about guarding every player on every play, and the pass is almost never utilized and therefore deadly when it is called upon.

I love the flexbone because it brings something new to the table, just like the more-publicized but less-successful Wildcat. Teams and coaches arrogantly believe they can stop this old-fashioned system, which is why it has stampeded over almost everyone Georgia Tech has played the last few seasons. When coach Paul Johnson was at Navy his teams regularly led the nation in rushing and this trend has continued at his new job.

My favorite part of this story is how wrong many prominent analysts were about it when Tech announced the Johnson hiring. Exactly as they did when Urban Meyer brought his spread-option to Florida, writers and television personalities said the offense would fail in a major conference because "the defensive players are so much better." Guess what? When you play in a major conference, you have great players on offense too. In both cases the predictors turned out to be completely wrong because they failed to realize how fundamentally sound the systems are. Both emphasize either running or passing to set up the other, which is what football has been about since the forward pass was legalized. Many people now say the spread offense is taking over college football, a claim I refute. The misdirection offense is taking over college football, as coaches have realized you don't always have to be bigger or faster - you just have to be smarter. Smart teams will begin incorporating the flexbone into their offenses to win.

So that, in very long-winded fashion, is why I love Georgia Tech.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

Eric Norwood, LB, South Carolina

They lost to Alabama, but the Gamecocks' D kept them in the game far longer than they deserved. Norwood is the reason why. When a linebacker is this good, he makes life easier for linemen in defending the run and the secondary by pressuring the quarterback. His 14.5 tackles for a loss this season says it all.

Ndamukong Suh, DL, Nebraska

The Huskers' defensive meltdown against Texas Tech all but eliminates his chances to actually win the award, but Suh should still be receiving consideration, all things equal. If offensive players can have a bad game and still be in the race Suh deserves to be recognized too.

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

I hesitate nominating running backs, because I think they get too much credit for what their lines accomplish. But what Ingram has done so far this season cannot be denied. He went for 256 against South Carolina's stout defense and has rushed for almost 1,000 yards already.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

I didn't want to put a quarterback on here for the same reason as running backs, but like Ingram what Keenum has accomplished has been incredible. He's first in the country in passing yards and touchdowns and in the top ten in efficiency. There's no way Houston beats Oklahoma State and Texas Tech without him.