October, we hardly knew ye

Now THAT is why I love this game. Finally, a weekend full of nothing but entertaining, quality football. It’s been so long. There was an historic upset in Norman, a historic miracle in East Lansing and a historic moment for the record books in Houston. It was one of those magical Saturdays that make college football special. I can’t remember the last time in this sport that we got such a perfect day.

The greatness wasn’t limited to the weekend, either. We also got yet another exceptional Friday night, this time in Big East Country. West Virginia got absolutely spanked at Syracuse (really didn’t see that coming), which left Rutgers as one of just two teams still unbeaten in conference play. Naturally, the Knights then lost on the road to Louisville. What fun! This week there’s another potential barnburner when BYU travels to Fort Worth to take on former league rival TCU.

First, to the top ten, where a pair of teams went down. Neither Oklahoma nor Wisconsin went quietly, but when the dust had cleared both had lost control of their own destiny. Honestly, the Sooners were fortunate to even be in the game against Texas Tech, who suffered a mid-second half lull (probably assuming the game was over) that nearly cost them. The Badgers, on the other hand, were unlucky to lose to Michigan State on such a fluky play. However, it’s hard for me to have sympathy for Wisconsin after they made the unforgivable error of gifting the Spartans two timeouts.

With the BCS standings now in shake-up mode the questions have started rolling in. How soon until Boise State gets passed? What will happen if Stanford and Oklahoma State both win out? How does Clemson fit into the picture? Could Kansas State possibly make a run (I’ll nip that one in the bud right now – no)? Oklahoma’s loss does impact what I wrote before about the top three teams in the country, though now you can just plug in “State” after I wrote “Oklahoma” before and it all still works.

Top 25

1) Alabama

I had to think hard before giving the top spot to Alabama again. The poor first half against Tennessee was troublesome. At times, as I have expressly said, the ‘Bama offense just sputters. The skill talent outside of Trent Richardson is remarkably bereft of explosiveness. I’m truly not sure about how this team will put points on the board against LSU. During the week off before those two teams play, it’s highly possible I’ll decide to move the Crimson Tide down.

2) LSU

The defense is a hair behind Alabama’s, but the offense is certainly miles ahead of the Tide’s. As I said, it was tough for me to not move the Tigers up, but I do hold by my yearlong assessment that Auburn just ain’t that good. LSU proved that this week. Even so, I may be switching over to the Bayou Bengals in the LSU/’Bama argument. All year I’ve backed the Tide, but this is starting to feel like one of those seasons where everything breaks right for LSU. After all, it has been four years.

3) Boise State

It’s crunch time for Boise. After another uninspiring win, the Broncos have to start blowing people out to avoid being passed, and it still probably won’t be enough. If Oklahoma State and Stanford keep winning they will jump Boise. The schedule is just going to get too weak. But… there is still Georgia. The Broncos’ unimpressive Mountain West wins will be less noticeable if the Bulldogs can: a) best Florida this week, b) win the SEC East and c) …upset the West division winner? It sounds crazy, but you never know…

4) Oklahoma State

Strange as it sounds, I think the Oklahoma loss actually hurt OSU. The spotlight now shifts fully onto the Cowboys, which is something they’re not used to, and their win over OU in the Bedlam game would be diminished somewhat now that the Sooners have lost. Make no mistake, OSU still controls their own destiny, but the schedule isn’t easy and now their chief rival has gotten a wake-up call. The Cowboys have to hope they can match Oklahoma’s intensity from here on out, something they didn’t do for stretches against Missouri.

5) Stanford

That was easily the best Stanford has looked since beating Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Washington was able to keep up with the Cardinal early but succumbed to an avalanche of power runs and sharp passes. So is Stanford just amazing, or was Washington overrated? You have to think the Huskies were in over their heads, but the Cardinal are probably better than I gave them credit for. It was the first time all year they had looked the part of a championship contender, though.

6) Oregon

Oregon coasted after the first quarter against Colorado and gets another weakling this Saturday when staggering Washington State comes to town. The game against the Cougs will be a formality as the Ducks prepare for their two-game road trip in Seattle and Palo Alto. Like Stanford, I’m still having problems judging the Ducks. They’re much better than their overmatched opponents, but it’s hard to say if they’re really elite. On a good note, depth doesn’t seem to be a problem.

7) Clemson

If LSU isn’t this year’s “team of destiny,” then it’s definitely Clemson. After receiving some marvelous 2010-Auburn-style luck against Maryland last week, the Tigers got some timely breaks against North Carolina this week to turn a close game into a blowout. At times this team can look unstoppable, though their reliance on a West Coast-type short passing game could possibly hurt them as teams look to build on the Tar Heels’ success using the all-out blitz.

8) Michigan State

I’m not going to say that last play wasn’t lucky, because it was. However, MSU acquitted themselves well in this game, far better than I expected them to, which means they might really be ready to take the next step. It starts this week against Nebraska, a game the Spartans should win. I probably still wouldn’t pick MSU against Wisconsin in a Big 10 title game rematch, but as the 31-31 score with four seconds left showed, Sparty is at least Bucky’s equal.

9) Wisconsin

I put the Badgers and Spartans back-to-back because of how even that game was played, with just a miracle pass all that separated the teams. It’ll kill Wisconsin fans to hear it because the BCS title just went up in smoke, but all is not lost. The Badgers have a manageable schedule that could very possibly result in a second chance at MSU in Indianapolis. They’ve got to correct those killer lulls like they had against the Spartans, though. After going up 14-0, Wisconsin was outscored 31-3 until late in the game.

10) Arkansas

Arkansas is lucky to still be in the top ten, but fortunately for the Razorbacks they beat my number 11 team. I don’t know what was going on for two quarters there against Ole Miss. 17-0? You know the Rebels are terrible, right? Luckily, Arkansas realized it and woke up in time to squeeze out a 29-24 victory. They didn’t fool the computers, though, who dropped the Hogs from ninth to 10^th. I hope I’m not warming to the evil side of the BCS.

11) Texas A&M

The next three weeks are huge for the Aggies. After warming up against Mizzou this week, they go to Oklahoma and then Kansas State. That’s a fairly challenging trio. A&M is capable of winning them all, though. If they do get through that stretch, they could grab themselves a share of the conference championship if OU wins the Bedlam game. A&M’s season is far from over, and they could make a big statement to that effect against the Tigers this week.

12) Oklahoma

You can focus on the impressive comeback and the fact that the Sooners would have sent the game to overtime if not for a missed chip-shot field goal. I’m going to focus on the porous defense for the first three quarters and the fact that OU was lucky Texas Tech didn’t capitalize on all their opportunities and drop 60 on them. I mean, wow. When it was 31-7 it has hard to believe that was an Oklahoma team out there. The Sooners are going to have to regroup in a hurry if they want to win the league championship again.

13) Kansas State

I refuse to believe that this K-State team has been anything more than fortunate to scrape by with a bunch of close wins. I know that they have some quality victories, but it just feels like the Wildcats are due for a major thrashing. The schedule (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas) gets brutal over the next month, so we’ll finally get to see what KSU is made of starting this weekend.

14) Nebraska

After a win over Minnesota in which the Cornhuskers appeared at times to be toying with the Gophers, Nebraska gets Michigan State at home in a huge divisional showdown. Win, and anything’s still possible for Big Red. A loss would pretty much end any Big 10 championship dreams and likely sentence the Huskers to a fairly unexciting postseason destination. The Big 10’s probably not getting two BCS teams this year, so this week’s game could be the difference between the Rose Bowl and the Outback or Gator Bowl.

15) Houston

Case Keenum was marvelous against Marshall, completing 24 of 28 passes for six touchdowns. He broke Timmy Chang’s all-time total yardage record, with Chang’s passing yardage record and Graham Harrell’s passing touchdown record within reach in the next few games. Houston seems to have finally broken out and become the BCS-busting kind of team I expected them to be, though I don’t know what took them so long. That early-season slump they went through was dreadful.

16) Arizona State

Good time for a bye, Sun Devils. ASU was in danger of waking up on Sunday tied with UCLA in the South division. Then Arizona reminded us how silly that idea was when the Wildcats obliterated the Bruins. Strangely enough, it’s ASU’s rival ‘Zona who may pose the biggest threat to the Sun Devils’ chances of winning out, a concept that would have sounded ludicrous a couple weeks ago. Now I think Arizona will be ASU’s hardest remaining test.

17) Virginia Tech

A decent win over a really bad Boston College team – seriously, what happened to the Eagles? – didn’t do much to sway me on the Hokies. I’m looking at the rest of their schedule and don’t see a whole lot there that scares me (Georgia Tech possibly, but the Yellow Jackets are in free-fall), but the ACC is just so thoroughly average that it’s hard to get excited about even a one-loss Tech squad.

18) Texas Tech

Have I not been saying that Texas Tech is a good team? Validation is a great thing. The win over Oklahoma probably won’t go down as the biggest victory in program history – that honor still goes to the win over top-ranked Texas in 2008 – but it should go down as the biggest upset in Red Raider history, considering the game was in Norman and Tech was unranked. Seth Doege is just another in a long line of brilliant Air Raid system quarterbacks.

19) USC

I was completely ready to dismiss USC’s 5-1 record because they hadn’t really beaten anyone, but that was an eye-opener. Even at 4-3 I think Notre Dame is decent, but the Trojans played outstanding football and beat the Irish by two TD’s. A very impressive performance. Could SC knock off Stanford this week? It’s not out of the question, but after the Washington game I’m not about to pick against the Cardinal.

20) West Virginia

I’m banking on the Syracuse game being a fluke more than anything else, because that was awful. WVU showed some chops against LSU this year, so I know the Mountaineers aren’t just a bunch of overrated scrubs, but they’ll have to shape up if they want to win the Big East. It’s a true wild-card conference, and while the ‘Eers are good, they’re not good enough that they can coast each week and still walk away with the title.

21) South Carolina

Now we see what the Gamecocks did on their bye week. The three remaining SEC opponents – Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida – all have flaws. Some significant. Even with the loss of their starting QB and RB, it’s possible that South Carolina could go 2-1 (I’m not holding out hope for that Arkansas game). But if they collapse in the wake of losing their two stars, 0-3 isn’t out of the realm of possibility at all. Georgia’s probably going 2-1 at least, so the Gamecocks need to beat Tennessee this weekend.

22) Baylor

I want to still have faith in Baylor. I want to believe their losses are the result of a difficult schedule and a tough conference. It’s undeniable, though, that the Bears have been sliding the past couple of weeks. In all likelihood, they’ll lose to Oklahoma State this week and drop out of my rankings, then return two weeks later after beating Kansas and Missouri. But I also want to keep the faith in Robert Griffin, who poses some interesting problems for that average OSU defense.

23) Penn State

I really don’t think Penn State is any good, but I ran out of teams to rank. The Nittany Lions are 7-1, but look at their wins. They haven’t beaten a single FBS team (not counting Eastern Michigan, and I won’t) by more than 10 points, and the 10-point win was last week against 2-5 Northwestern. The seven teams they’ve beaten have a combined 15 total wins over other FBS schools, most of those coming against the MAC. The Nittany Lions only average 23 points a game. Yet they sit at 4-0 in Big 10 play, so more power to ‘em, I guess.

24) Southern Miss

Scoff if you will – I certainly did when I saw the Golden Eagles in the Coaches’ Poll – but USM’s record isn’t any worse than Penn State’s. At 6-1, this team has wins over Virginia (Georgia Tech couldn’t do that) and a red-hot SMU team who had previously won five straight. Put it this way: Navy has four losses by a total of eight points. Their other loss was to Southern by 28. By most metrics I use, this seems like a pretty solid team.

25) Georgia

Georgia is not a team I’m fond of. As with Penn State, I think they’ve beaten absolutely no one to justify being ranked. To see what I’m talking about with the schedule, here you go: after losing their first two, the Bulldogs beat… Coastal Carolina. A really terrible Ole Miss squad. A bad Mississippi State team. A below-average Tennessee team. And Vanderbilt, yet again the SEC’s whipping boy. Boy, looks like a top-25 worthy team to me! Unfortunately, once again I’m pretty much out of teams, and I’ll be damned if I’m going to hand over an inflated ranking to Texas or Florida.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Looks like all Arizona needed was to get that angry baboon off their backs, eh? That Thursday night performance against UCLA was off-the-charts awesome. True, UCLA’s weakness (no offense) played right into the Wildcats’ hands. Er, paws. But that shouldn’t demean the effort by ‘Zona, who led 48-7 midway through the fourth quarter in a game that very likely will get a second Pac-12 coach canned. I know the Bruins’ AD gave Neuheisel a vote of confidence, but if UCLA doesn’t get to a bowl he’s gone.

Oregon State, USC and Cal all also put up nice wins, even if some of the competition wasn’t top-notch. For OSU, getting the blowout over Wazzu was, at the least, a big confidence builder in a revenge scenario. Cal only beat Utah, but the Bears were so starved for a victory that even a win over an injury-riddled team who appears to have lost hope was a cause for celebration. Then there was USC, who broke open their tight contest with Notre Dame with a hilariously ill-timed (for the Irish) defensive TD and rode the ensuing momentum to the game’s end. I can’t stress enough how badly the conference needed that win.

Of course, the semi-shocker was the ease with which Stanford dealt with Washington. Speaking as someone who was foolish enough to think the Huskies had a chance to be competitive, whoa. As I said last week, I wasn’t totally sold on UW, but I thought the Cardinal’s paper-thin resume to this point warranted some healthy skepticism about the players around Andrew Luck. Stanford apparently knew there were doubters, because they abused the Dogs back to also-ran status. The only remaining issue I have is the fact that Washington’s defense is really bad… but let’s not taint this. An impressive showing by the Tree.

This week we finally get to see all 12 conference teams in action against each other for the first time. There’s an interesting hodge-podge of games both competitive and ugly. Oregon and Arizona State are at home facing bottom-feeders WSU and Colorado, respectively. Not a lot of excitement there. On the other hand, Oregon State-Utah and Cal-UCLA are two intriguing contests where I don’t see a whole lot of difference between the opponents. And how about Stanford-USC? Can I talk myself into a Trojans upset? There’s no way the Cardinal stumble here, right? But… it is in the Coliseum, at night… USC has been playing well lately... no. I can’t do it. Not after what Stanford did last week.

The final game of the day is in Seattle, where newly humbled Washington meets Arizona. The teams have opposite records (UW’s 5-2 to ‘Zona’s 2-5), but I could see this one going either way. The Wildcats are coming off an emotional win, the Huskies off an emotional loss. Even with suspensions, Arizona should be able to move the ball on Washington’s beleaguered D. Then again, everyone’s been able to move the on Arizona, so there ought to be a lot of scoring on both sides. Should be a fun game.

Heisman* Watch

Robert Griffin was off, Kellen Moore had a so-so outing and I don’t want to jinx Case Keenum. No one deserves to be mentioned in the same category as *Luck this week.

Random Thought and Observations

Missouri is continuing their “will-they-won’t-they” dance with the SEC, which is reportedly ready to admit the Tigers. Everybody around this relationship is tired and embarrassed at this point and just wants to see the two get together already. By all accounts the Big 12 has made preparations for life without Mizzou (gasp) and is ready to invite West Virginia immediately, along with a couple of the Mountaineers’ current league members. Kinda spreads the conference out, but whatever. At this point, anything that just finishes off the Big East and ends the “we can still save this thing!” charade is fine by me. Really, it’s a shame the Big East is dying. Just not in football.

Perception isn’t always reality in sports. How else do you explain upsets? But perception can mean something, and rarely is it more important than in college football. In football, terms like “soft,” “slow,” “undisciplined” or “scared” can become entrenched in both the public mindset and in a team’s psyche. When Texas A&M started to give up a huge halftime lead to Arkansas last month, everyone on the sidelines, in the stands and around the country was thinking “Here we go again.” The Aggies, fresh off their embarrassing meltdown against Oklahoma State, clearly felt it too and fell apart again.

The Big 10 has been mocked for years as a slow conference because of its playing style, which is not reflective of the actual team speed of the league’s members. The Pac-10 was often called soft in the early 2000s, even though several high-profile bowls proved that the West could play just as physical as anyone. The Big East… well, the Big East has proved itself to be pretty bad lately, but has also had some huge BCS upsets as well.

My point in bringing this up is to put the spotlight on one team. This team has been touted as nigh-unstoppable in the regular season multiple times and has been defeated multiple times in BCS bowls against elite competition. Because of this, this team has gained a paper tiger reputation, unable to win when it really matters. I’m talking of course, about Ohio State. Just kidding! I’m talking about the new Ohio State, Oregon!

As much as Oregon fans won’t want to hear it, the truth is that there are some striking parallels between the two schools. Ohio State was nationally trashed from 2006 to 2009, not coincidentally a span in which the Buckeyes lost to Florida in the BCS Championship Game, lost to LSU in the same game and lost to Texas in the Fiesta Bowl. Looking back now, it’s obvious Ohio State ran into some really good teams and just got beat, which is nothing to be ashamed of. But at the time, the nation’s fury was directed at OSU for being “overrated.” I should know; I said it too. Often. In the end, the Buckeyes didn’t regain their reputation until they won a BCS bowl, also not coincidentally…

…against Oregon. Beating the Ducks in the 2009 Rose Bowl was a huge step for OSU, who then went on to defeat Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl last year. Now, there have been some extenuating circumstances with the Ohio State program since, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t increase national respect for their play (and hey, Oregon’s got off-field issues, too. More parallels! Parallels for everyone!). The point is, Oregon has now suffered the exact same amount of high-profile losses as Ohio State, if you count the loss to LSU. If Oregon is on the same trajectory as OSU – and after what happened to Jim Tressel, let’s hope to God they’re not, but play along – at the end of this season the Ducks could be in line to pass along the “overrated” label to another team.

So who’s it going to be? Nebraska or Michigan State, whom Oregon could potentially see in the Rose Bowl? I suppose UO could make an at-large BCS bowl by running the table but losing to ASU in the Pac-12 title game, which could mean anyone – Clemson, Okahoma, or even a rematch with LSU (don’t think the bowl-makers wouldn’t jump on that in a heartbeat). If the Ducks do make a BCS bowl again, though, they’ll be due. Their opponent had better be ready to bear the nation’s “overrated” wrath. Until they win, though, Oregon is new Ohio State. And they’ll have to live with that stigma for at least a little while longer.

Brief notes: The brawl in the Arizona-UCLA game was tacky and could get people fired, but I think it was probably just what the Wildcats needed to prove to themselves that they weren’t going to lie down against teams anymore… The “Boston Globe” apparently reported that the Big East was looking to invite the entire Mountain West/Conference USA conglomerate to create a 30+ team bizarro-league that stretched across the entire continent. I hope the Big East wasn’t that desperate, because it would be really pathetic… Yes, Oregon could play LSU again, I just didn’t want to explain it in detailed fashion above, so here goes: Alabama beats LSU for the BCS title game spot, Oklahoma State runs the table and joins the Tide. LSU gets a Sugar Bowl invite, Oklahoma goes to the Fiesta Bowl (replacing Oklahoma State), Clemson runs the table but settles for the Orange Bowl and ASU upsets Oregon for the Pac-12 title and the Rose Bowl. The Big 10 sends Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl after the Badgers beat MSU in a rematch, leaving Big East champ West Virginia (automatic bid), Oregon and undefeated Boise State to fill the last three spots. The selection order this season is Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, so the Orange Bowl takes West Virginia for a regional battle with Clemson and the Sugar Bowl delightedly takes UO against LSU so that Boise can battle Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl again. Fun stuff, see you next week…

What was life like before the ultraconference?

There were some good upsets this weekend despite the void of interesting matchups, but overall I still found last Saturday to be lacking in real drama. Really? Michigan isn’t that good and lost to the first decent team they played? Shocking news. Virginia knocking off Georgia Tech was surprising given how bad the Cavaliers have been recently, though their clock-killing final drive was impressive.

Other than that not much fun was had. The back-to-back kickoff returns for touchdowns in the Oklahoma State-Texas game provided an exciting moment in a contest that largely consisted of Texas staving off the inevitable (although give the Longhorns credit for hanging around). Oklahoma let Kansas do the same for WAY longer than the Jayhawks had any right to, whereas Stanford came out of halftime against Washington State and put the hammer down.

Oregon-Arizona State was a pretty good game for a half, but early in the third quarter it became apparent that the Ducks were going to pull their patented second-half landslide move. Considering that Oregon played without LaMichael James and lost QB Darron Thomas, the final score was pretty impressive. However, ASU showed in that game that they might only be the fourth-best team in the conference, so both Washington and Stanford should prove to be bigger tests for UO.

Coming up this week there aren’t a lot of matchup that blow me away on paper, but the schedule is certainly better than it has been lately. Oklahoma State on the road at Missouri has potential, as does fellow early timeslot game North Carolina-Clemson. After losing to Miami (FL), a team I thought they should beat, the Tar Heels will probably be out to prove themselves against the Tigers. Speaking of Tigers, Auburn plays at LSU, though I’m not optimistic about the visiting team’s chances in that one.

In the evening the schedule really gets going, with the annual USC-Notre Dame game, Texas Tech and Oklahoma (a good test for the Sooners’ defense) and a pair of primetime top-25 matchups. Wisconsin plays at Michigan State (I think the Spartans will get killed, but you never know) and resurgent Washington plays at Stanford in a game that suddenly has huge Pac-12 implications. Stanford seems like the better pick at home… but the Huskies have been pretty good this year. I’m not sure. More on that game later. To the top 25!

Top 25

1) Alabama

Nothing that happened this weekend did anything to change my opinion of the Crimson Tide. They played a bad Ole Miss team and whaled on them. Though the lion’s share of the media attention has been on LSU’s defense, I still think Alabama’s unit is the best in the country. It’ll be fascinating to see the two on the same field in November. I’m not expecting a whole lot of points. At least, not from the offenses.

2) LSU

Tennessee isn’t an impressive win by any standard, but LSU moved up because Oklahoma failed to put Kansas away early. After ‘Bama this is undoubtedly the best defense in the nation. What has been – and continues to be – surprising about the Tigers is their QB play. Jarrett Lee has been consistent and turnover-free, the two things that he could never seem to be in past seasons. Playing with a good running game and elite defense helps, but Lee has still been a pleasant surprise.

3) Oklahoma

It’s hard to fault a team for winning by 30, but Kansas is terrible and OU was only up by 13 early in the fourth quarter before tacking on some meaningless touchdowns. The score was 27-17 at halftime. I can’t reward the Sooners for that kind of effort. It doesn’t make much of a difference because they still control their own destiny, but this team does tend to go flat at times. I know I wouldn’t pick them to beat either LSU or Alabama at this point.

4) Boise State

Boise State chalked up another predictable blowout win against weak competition as they entered Mountain West play. The Broncos’ schedule is just pitiful from here on out, but they did get a nice break when South Carolina lost star running back Marcus Lattimore for the year. This dramatically improves Georgia’s chances to win the SEC East, which Boise will need to garner any late-season respect.

5) Wisconsin

I don’t want to talk about Russell Wilson as a Heisman Candidate because I think he stepped into a remarkably beneficial situation with the Badgers. However, that doesn’t mean that he isn’t quite good, or that Wisconsin’s offense isn’t just as physically intimidating – if not more so – than in 2010. My only reservation is regarding how that line might perform against a great defense. Wisconsin hasn’t played anyone yet who comes close to elite.

6) Oklahoma State

I love the Cowboys’ offense and would like to pull the trigger on jumping them ahead of Wisconsin. But we’ve seen this kind of OSU team in the past, and they generally struggle when they play good defenses or are forced to actually play good defense themselves. This year seems pretty much the same to me. The defense is still average and could easily cost the team a game. The good news is that Oklahoma is the only opponent OSU has who can bring that killer combination of offense and defense.

7) Stanford

In the first half against Wazzu Stanford looked pretty overrated. Then the second half began and Andrew Luck set out to remind everyone why the Cardinal are in the top 10. That was a good showing. At the same time, though, this week seemed to reinforce what I – and now some national commentators – have recognized: Stanford just isn’t that good. The offense can be great at times, but it’s nowhere near as explosive as it needs to be for the Cardinal to cover their defensive deficiencies.

8) Oregon

Oregon has played two opponents better than anyone Stanford has faced, but because the Cardinal are undefeated I won’t disrespect them by moving the Ducks ahead. That second half against the Sun Devils was pretty nice, though. The issue now seems to be health – with LaMichael James and Darron Thomas in the lineup, I think Oregon can easily beat both Washington and Stanford. The backups played well Saturday, but without their starters the Ducks won’t win the North.

9) Clemson

Wow. That was the “Clemson” game everyone was waiting for. That game when a highly touted Tigers team flops against a middling opponent and loses, dragging the season into ruin. But this time, somehow, Clemson managed to come back. Getting into a shootout with Maryland isn’t something to be particularly proud of, but the bottom line is that the Tigers are still undefeated. Now they have to avoid doing the same thing again.

10) Arkansas

After getting through a rough stretch the Razorbacks got a much-needed bye. Now they begin preparing for LSU. It sounds crazy, given that Arkansas doesn’t play the Tigers until the regular-season finale, but there’s truly not another team left on the schedule that should be able to beat this team. Ole Miss? Vandy? South Carolina, sans Lattimore? Don’t make me laugh. Barring a massive setback, the Hogs will be 10-1 when they face LSU.

11) Texas A&M

A&M is a lot better than the voters seem to think. This is where people need to look past the record (which at 4-2 isn’t even that bad) to focus on who the Aggies have played and how they lost. If not for a couple of very close losses this team would be in the top five. Last Saturday’s big win over Baylor proved that A&M isn’t going to just go away. They’ve got a couple weeks to get ready for Oklahoma, who they beat last year. There’s no reason they can’t do it again.

12) West Virginia

The Mountaineers had a week off and reaped the benefits of having teams ahead of them lose. Now comes the hard part – oh, wait. This is the Big East. There is no hard part. As long as WVU takes care of business, I don’t see any reason why they don’t win out. They’ve got the best offense and QB in the conference, and in this league that’s literally all you need.

13) Nebraska

Nebraska had the same good bye-week fortune West Virginia did. This week the Cornhuskers get Minnesota, so chalk that one up in the win column. From there, the schedule gets a little tricky. Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State and Michigan isn’t exactly a murderer’s row, but it’s not a stretch when you want to be playing less than your best ball, either. I’m guessing the division title will come down to that Michigan State game.

14) Michigan State

So it turns out Michigan wasn’t any good. Again. Sparty put the Wolverines in their place for the fourth straight season (ouch) and in the process alerted the rest of the Big 10 to watch out. The next two games against Wisconsin and Nebraska will probably decide the season for MSU, so it’s a good thing they built some confidence this week. Question is, will they be feeling so happy after they face the Badgers?

15) Kansas State

This is, in all likelihood, far too high for this team. The record is sterling at 6-0, but have you seen the wins? 10-7 over Eastern Kentucky. 28-24 over Miami (FL). 36-35 over Baylor. What I’m saying is that the Wildcats are lucky to be unbeaten. This is the Michigan State of 2011 – decent and plucky, but with little real talent. At some point, one of the Big 12’s elite is going to drop 50 on them.

16) Houston

The Cougars were lucky to have the week off, because without teams ahead of them losing I wouldn’t have been able to move them up in good conscience. Houston now faces a Boise State-esque conundrum: how can we prove that we’re good against the competition we play? The answer is to throw it. Don’t stop until Case Keenum holds every last NCAA passing record. Come on, Cougars, don’t let me down.

17) Arizona State

For about 20 minutes of game time against Oregon, Arizona State looked great. The offense was tossing the ball all over the place, the defense was stuffing the run… and then the Ducks decided to remind the Sun Devils why they’ve won the past two conference titles. The loss was disheartening, but not damaging, as it’s still almost guaranteed ASU wins the South. They will need to make some changes if they face Oregon again, though.

18) Washington

Yet another team who got a well-timed bye. I hope the Huskies used it well, because the get to go to Stanford this week. I know that UW still hasn’t beaten anyone of note, but I do think they’re improved. The question is, how much? Just a normal improvement after last year’s promising campaign, or a real jump? Stanford will provide the answer. It’s entirely possible that Washington is about to get a huge reality check. The extra week couldn’t have hurt, though.

19) Notre Dame

I’m taking a leap on this because I haven’t seen Notre Dame play in two weeks. But the truth is that the Fighting Irish should be 7-0, not 5-2, and they’ve put up some nice offensive numbers recently. With the USC defense a question mark and the offense inconsistent, I feel fairly confident that Notre Dame will beat the Trojans this week. I hope the BCS bowl talk doesn’t start, because they don’t deserve it. But this is a pretty good team.

20) Virginia Tech

Tech should be able to rest this week given that they’re playing Boston College. The schedule the rest of the way includes teams that could all possibly present problems for the Hokies but probably won’t be too difficult to handle. Georgia Tech is the exception, but I don’t love the Ramblin’ Wreck as much as I did after their loss to Virginia. I think Virginia Tech has a solid shot to get to 10 wins, if not 11.

21) Georgia Tech

The loss to Virginia was disappointing, but even more troublesome was the play of QB Tevin Washington. It’s not easy to run the option and Tech has had their share of QB problems in the past, but two of eight passing with two picks? Ugh. Fortunately, most teams won’t be able to defend the Yellow Jackets as well as the Cavaliers did, but that game still raises questions about how the Ramblin’ Wreck will do the rest of the season.

22) Auburn

Auburn’s back again! At least, until they drop out after losing this week, right? It’s likely, because they’re playing at LSU. I’ve finally seen QB Barrett Trotter prove that he’s not that good (it took longer than expected), but what does a loss to LSU really mean? Nearly every team in the country would do the same. I’m looking for Auburn to show something this week that would give me a reason to keep them ranked with a loss.

23) South Carolina

I dropped the Gamecocks because it’s very likely they’re about to fall apart. In consecutive weeks South Carolina has lost their starting QB (dismissed) and starting RB (knee injury). I have no idea how they can hold it together and still win the East. If Steve Spurrier still has any of his old coaching acumen – which he honestly hasn’t shown a lot of in Columbia – he might be able to cobble together a division title. But I really doubt it.

24) Illinois

I expected to see Illinois drop a game a few weeks ago, then when the Illini got to 6-0 I felt good about them. Serves me right for trusting such an unproven team, I suppose. It all goes back to Arizona State, because I wouldn’t have had nearly the amount of respect I did for Illinois if ASU had just taken care of business. I finally moved the Sun Devils ahead of the Illini because, let’s face it, Oregon is a way better loss than Ohio State. And Illinois is going to lose again, unlike ASU.

25) Baylor

I had to drop Baylor for losing, but I also don’t think it’s fair to punish them too harshly for losing to a good Texas A&M team. The Bears are still a quality team; the problem is just – as I feared – that they don’t have the same kind of across-the-board talent as the other teams in the Big 12. The remainder of the schedule isn’t easy, though I still see Baylor picking up seven or eight wins. In this year’s Big 12, that’s an accomplishment.

Pac-12 Thoughts

ASU is the only Pac-12 school not playing this week and now we’re getting into the meat of the conference schedule. UCLA and Arizona kick things off on Thursday night in a game that’s actually more meaningful than it appears at first glance. Did you know UCLA is only one game behind division leader ASU in the South? With a win, the Bruins would move up to a tie for first with the idle Sun Devils. For Arizona, it’s a chance to start the post-Stoops era off right at home.

Oregon and Colorado play the only weekend league game before primetime (12:30 PST), which should be a walk in the park for the Ducks. The poor Buffaloes have now lost their best player (RB Rodney Stewart) for significant time and their leading tackler (LB Douglas Rippy) for the season. The only intrigue for this game is whether Oregon will sit their entire first-string backfield with the hope of getting healthy.

Utah and Cal play in this week’s version of the Desperation Bowl. Both teams are 3-3 but 0-3 in conference play and badly need a win. Utah’s road win last week over Pittsburgh was a major gut-check for the Utes, so getting their first Pac-12 victory this week could really build some momentum for them. Cal is a disaster right now, looking completely unfit for league play. With an 0-4 conference start, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear about a hot seat under Jeff Tedford.

The USC-Notre Dame rivalry is always a nice game to watch, but it has held little national relevance in the past few seasons. This year I think the Irish are a better team, so it would help boost the Pac-12’s sagging reputation if the Trojans could get a win in South Bend. SC did look very good against Cal last week, which is a good sign, though it’s also possible that the Bears are just terrible.

The best game of the week by far is Washington at Stanford, where the young but talented Huskies will really get a chance to prove how far they’ve come. When I look at Washington’s wins the team doesn’t look very impressive. It could be that the reason UW has looked so good on offense has been a lack of good competition. But Stanford’s schedule has been even weaker. I would categorize four of the six teams the Cardinal have beaten as bad-to-terrible. The only marginally respectable wins are Arizona and Washington State.

Washington’s defense has been pretty bad at times this year, so you’d think Stanford could take advantage of that. But Stanford has also been listless offensively at times. See: 16 points in the first half against Arizona. 17 at halftime against UCLA. 10 against WSU. By comparison, Oregon had 35 at halftime against the Wildcats. I’m not saying that the Huskies have a shot because they’re better than everyone thinks – near the bottom of the top 25 is about right. They have a shot because Stanford isn’t as good as everyone thinks. I’m still picking Stanford at home because I see the Cardinal as a deeper team, but UW should make this a good game.

The nightcap is Oregon State and Wazzu in Seattle, a game that I actually really wish was televised. This series has gotten interesting with the two teams apparently headed in opposite directions (although the Cougars’ last two games would tell you otherwise). Oregon State is still smarting from giving WSU their only Pac-12 win last season and is frustrated at coming up short last week against BYU. The Cougs are really angry after playing awful second halves against Stanford and UCLA and probably have a lot of confidence against the Beavers, having beaten them last year. Both teams are 1-2 in conference play and want to keep ahead of Cal in the North division cellar.

Heisman* Watch

*Luck

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

The Bears lost, but Griffin has already tied his own school record for touchdown passes in a season through just six games. Unreal. His efficiency has dipped ever-so-slightly, but come on. He’s still completing 14 of every 18 passes and has thrown a mere two interceptions against 22 touchdowns.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Anything less than a stellar effort would have led me to drop Moore from the list temporarily. So naturally, he went 26-for-30 with four TD’s and no picks. His efficiency is creeping closer to Griffin’s, though the difficulty of their opponents is rapidly traveling in the opposite direction.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The initial BCS rankings came out on Sunday and were thoroughly boring. There was little to differentiate the computers from the polls except for the computers giving a little extra love to Oklahoma State. Yes, Texas was ranked and probably shouldn’t be, while Arkansas over Oregon was a little surprising, but those things weren’t exactly scandalous. As many analysts have explained by now, several of the top teams play each other, so it’s impossible for there to be more than a few undefeateds. Yawn.

I was delighted to see that Texas gave Texas A&M the coldest of shoulders regarding their annual (and very long-running) rivalry series when the Aggies tried to set up a yearly nonconference showdown with the Longhorns. After whining, complaining and even trying to evoke popular sympathy through a “patriotic defense,” it was astounding that Texas A&M had the gall to ask Texas for a continuous series.

If you don’t know, Texas replied that it wasn’t possible because their nonleague schedules were filled until 2018, which is of course a filthy lie. Schools do love to schedule nonconference games years in advance, but the truth is that future matchups are ever-changing. Conference realignment, teams chickening out of hard games (looking at you, SEC) and even the prospect of a better payoff can affect a school’s schedule. Just look at the last two season-opening Cowboys Classics: Oregon-LSU and Oregon State-TCU weren’t settled until less than a year before those games were actually played. If teams want to play each other, they can find a way. Texas doesn’t want – or need – you, A&M. Now enjoy the SEC.

There were some more realignment rumblings this week, though nothing concrete has materialized… except for the big one. BYU-to the Big 12 continues to be a hot topic, which would be funny after the Cougars made such a big deal about going independent but isn’t a bad fit football-wise. Temple is rumored to be a candidate for the Big East (crawling back to Temple, eh boys? The Owls don’t look so bad now that you’ve lost half your conference, hmm?). Missouri, whom everyone in the Big 12 must just loathe at this point, has yet again pledged undying love to the SEC, if only the SEC will have them. This is after the Tigers previously begged to be let into the Big 10, so I think everyone takes Mizzou only half-seriously nowadays. Still, the SEC will eventually get at least 14 teams, and Missouri is probably the best option out there.

The “big one” I was referring to was the amazing and not-at-all ridiculous merger between the Mountain West and Conference USA. I absolutely love this move because it’s just so off-the-charts crazy. Hey, ACC! You thought you’d steal the spotlight by jumping to 14 teams? Try 22! That’s where the proposed superconference would sit once the MWC increases to 10 schools next season. Although I’m not sure “superconference” is even the right term for this, because we’ve been using it to refer to 16-team leagues. This is a good deal more, so… ultraconference? Until someone comes up with something better, that’s what I’m sticking with. What will be even more interesting is what the 22-team behemoth will be named. I’ll have to think on that.

I had fun giving a little history lesson last week, so I thought I’d have another go at it. This week’s lesson came about because of my own curiosity and the continuing national unease over how well superconferences will function if we get to that point. To preface, however:

Last year when the Pac-10 nearly became the Pac-16, there were questions about how a league of such size would work. The 8-team split was easy: the old Pac-8 on one side, the Arizona schools and former Big 12 teams on the other. However, to ensure schedule balance, many people thought the conference could create four four-team “pods.” Teams would play each team in their own pod and two of the four teams from the other three pods on a rotating basis. This was logical because it would mean no school would go more than two years without playing every other team in the league.

Well, there’s a reason the “pod” system was popular: it had been used before. I always knew the Mountain West was a very young league that had formed out of the dissatisfied members of the older WAC, but I was fuzzy on the details. I looked it up, and here’s what happened

In the nineties, with the Southwest conference crumbling and other schools looking to move up to D-1A (now FBS) status, the WAC ballooned to 16 members – the first superconference. The members of this league were, to put it lightly, a bit scattered. Geographically, the WAC ranged from Hawai’i in the West to Texas and Oklahoma in the East. The conference arranged its schools into four-team quadrants or pods within larger divisions, with the division winners facing each other in the conference championship game.

To rotate opponents, however, the WAC made two of the pods “locked” with the other two free. Hawai’i, San Jose State, San Diego State and Fresno State (Pod I) would always play in the Pacific division. Tulsa, TCU, SMU and Rice (Pod IV) would always play in the Mountain division. The two other quadrants – UNLV, Air Force, Colorado State and Wyoming (Pod II) and BYU, Utah, New Mexico and UTEP (Pod III) – would switch divisions every two years.

The system was complicated, but rather ingenious. Back when playing only seven conference games was normal, these quadrants did a good job of ensuring that no school would go too long without playing most of the others. Since the Pac-10 took the step of moving to nine conference games in 2006, though, such a system would be less effective. It’s also hard to evaluate the WAC because the pods only lasted three years before half of the conference took off to form the Mountain West. Travel costs, understandably, were part of the problem. But in general I think the WAC’s solution to a superconference was admirable.

So who should conferences of the future emulate? The ACC will soon play with 14 teams, which has also been done before (the MAC had 14 members from 2002-2005, and will again starting next season). 14 teams isn’t too hard to figure out: two divisions, six divisional games, and either two or three cross-division games, depending on whether the league wants to man up. 16 is a whole lot harder. The old rotating WAC model would work as long as the conference played nine league games, because teams would once again only go as long as two years without playing each team. But the proposed Pac-16’s system made sense, too.

In the end, I’d prefer to stay with the traditional smaller conferences. But as the MountConf Westerence USA ultraconference has proved, we’re way past that point now. 22-team leagues for everyone! Why stop there? Let’s go to 30! Full steam ahead, I say! See you next week.

Wherein the schedule myth is revealed

As expected, the prevalence of byes and weak matchups last Saturday left the nation with meager fare. The most exciting game everyone got to see was Ohio State-Nebraska, which was most notable for how horrible the Cornhuskers looked for the first two-and-a-half quarters. Yikes. We know Ohio State is bad; they’ve proved it more than once this season. If freshman quarterback Braxton Miller hadn’t suffered an untimely injury, we might be talking this week about Nebraska, not Florida State, being the most disappointing team in the country (upon sneaking out that win, of course, Nebraska failed to drop a single spot in the polls).

But unfortunately for the Buckeyes and Seminoles, Miller was injured. Of course, that wouldn’t have been as big of an issue if FSU hadn’t dropped another head-scratcher to Wake Forest. After that physical, emotional game against Oklahoma, I said two things: first, that Florida State was “back,” and second, that the ‘Noles had to keep proving it the rest of the year. I guess I was right about both. During the OU game, Florida State looked like a top-15 team. That game must have really drained them, though, because they’ve looked awful ever since. Part of that has to do with the injuries the Seminoles sustained against the Sooners and part of it has to do with Clemson and Wake Forest being better than anticipated, but it’s still pretty shocking to see FSU sitting at 2-3 right now.

Meanwhile, those wacky pollsters are at it again! Wisconsin jumped Stanford because playing Colorado is apparently now viewed as easier than a bye. Seems kinda harsh, guys. Now, I’ve had Wisconsin above Stanford for a few weeks already, but how could the Badgers move up without playing? If the voters don’t want to admit they’re just following my lead on this, it’s OK. I’m just asking for a little consistency. In unrelated news, Texas’ offense was outscored 21-3 by Oklahoma’s defense and the Longhorns only dropped to 22^nd. Rather than about 70^th, where they belong. Am I a little giddy about that game? Yes, I am.

Coming up this weekend there are once again very few good games. The day starts off great, with the in-state rivalry of Michigan-Michigan State and a Big 12 showdown matching Baylor and Texas A&M. Then there’s literally nothing. Look at the schedule, and there’s not a single game to get excited about until the Oregon-Arizona State nightcap. What are you going to watch? Miami (FL) and North Carolina? LSU-Tennessee? BYU at Oregon State? Oklahoma State’s visit to Texas is a top-25 matchup in name only, and after that the only game featuring two ranked teams is the one in Eugene. Terrible. The only potentially interesting tilt is Kansas State on the road at Texas Tech, who’s actually pretty good. Possible upset there.

Top 25

1) Alabama

2) Oklahoma

3) LSU

For my detailed breakdown on the top three, refer to the “Random Thoughts…” section.

4) Boise State

Boise rebounded from their weakest effort of the season to floor former and future league rival Fresno State by 50. Regardless of how good the Broncos are, their fate yet again rests in the hands of other teams, particularly Georgia. If the Bulldogs win the SEC East – which is now a distinct possibility – BSU’s case will be helped immensely. But they still have to hope for losses from Oklahoma and Wisconsin.

5) Wisconsin

The Badgers were off, so there’s not a whole lot to say. Should they have moved up in the polls? Probably not. Will it matter in the end? Probably not. Wisconsin faces three road tests in their final seven games (at Michigan State, Ohio State and Illinois, they also play at Minnesota, but come on) and are more than capable of winning each one handily. Is missing Michigan a blessing (for the W/L column) or a curse (for BCS respect)? Not sure yet.

6) Oklahoma State

Kansas is pretty bad. That said, dropping 56 in a half against a BCS conference team is ridiculous. OSU is absolutely rolling right now, and the Cowboys have to be salivating after watching Oklahoma dismantle their next opponent, Texas. What’s the over/under on Brandon Weedon’s yardage total in this game? 450? The Longhorns had better make some wholesale improvements fast if they want to last past halftime.

7) Stanford

Andrew Luck was incredibly efficient again, though it’s a mystery why some writers thought blowing out Colorado was a big deal. You realize the Buffs are 1-5, right? Now the Cardinal get to travel to Pullman to face frustrated WSU, who may have let a bowl bid slip through their fingers against UCLA last week. Sadly, this will be the hardest opponent Stanford has faced so far. It shouldn’t matter, but… I might be able to talk myself into thinking this has upset potential.

8) Oregon

Oregon remains an enigma in some ways. We know the Ducks have top-end skill position talent. We know the offensive line is still a work in progress. But what about the defense? A unit that was so good a year ago and returned a lot of guys simply can’t pressure or force turnovers this season. The run defense has been too soft, the pass defense too loose. And why has Darron Thomas’ play been so inconsistent? This week’s ASU game is an important test for UO.

9) Clemson

I’m fond of Clemson, so hopefully Tajh Boyd isn’t too injured. The Tigers couldn’t afford to see him go down. Fortunately, there’s not a legitimate threat on the schedule for a couple weeks. However, that’s because Clemson plays in the ACC, which has (deservedly) gotten less respect in the last few years than any BCS conference except the Big East. Will voters’ prior prejudice against the conference hurt this team at some point?

10) Arkansas

Now that’s more like it. Arkansas came out roaring after a slow start and buried Auburn in the Razorbacks’ most complete performance of the season. After the embarrassing loss to Alabama I would have thought it crazy to take this team seriously. Two weeks later, they’ve bounced back impressively and are now staring at a very easy stretch run. This could be a one-loss team when they go to LSU in the finale. What if Alabama beats Arkansas, LSU beats Alabama and Arkansas beats LSU? Big 12 South 2008, anyone?

11) Georgia Tech

Tech jumped out to a comfortable lead against Maryland and then kind of shut it down. Perhaps they were thinking about the next two games on the road. The schedule sets up nicely for the Ramblin’ Wreck, as the road trips to Virginia and Miami (FL) – not exactly frightening – are followed by back-to-back home dates with league-leading Clemson and Virginia Tech. At the very least, this team should contend for the ACC championship game.

12) Illinois

Looking at Illinois’ schedule, I’m not sure what exactly the Illini did to make voters so sour on them. Illinois is 6-0, like Michigan, has played just once away from home, like Michigan (gutsy, guys) and has wins over Western Michigan and Northwestern, like Michigan. The only difference is that Illinois has actually beaten a ranked team (Arizona State), whereas UM has defeated only Notre Dame. So why is Michigan five spots ahead in both polls? Because the Illini weren’t supposed to be good? The horror!

13) Arizona State

Looking at Illinois’ schedule also allowed to me come to another conclusion: I’m now 100 percent convinced that ASU is a better team. Still, in the interest of fairness to an Illini team that won the game fair and square, I’m leaving the Sun Devils lower. Unless, of course, they beat Oregon in Eugene this weekend, at which point the discussion will be over. Oregon has won 14 straight conference games. If ASU dethrones the Ducks, they should get top-10 consideration.

14) Texas A&M

A&M got back on course by beating Texas Tech, but it wasn’t easy. Somehow, Texas Tech never is for the Aggies. I count it as a quality win, though. This week brings Baylor, after whom A&M can finally breathe for a couple games. One thing you can say for sure about this team: at least they’re battle-tested. Because the Big 12 plays a round-robin this year, A&M still has to face Oklahoma and K-State, so they’d better beat the Bears.

15) West Virginia

I’ve always liked West Virginia and I want to believe in them now. But as a member of the Big East, they’re always going to be questioned. The good thing is that you can usually count on WVU. Do you know who the Big East’s BCS wins have come against? In the past six years, the conference has gone 3-3. One win was over the ACC, so it doesn’t count. West Virginia has the other two, and they were against big-time conference champions in Georgia (2005 Sugar Bowl) and Oklahoma (2007 Fiesta Bowl). The Big East better not lose these guys…

16) Michigan

As I said in my Illinois write-up, Michigan should not be ranked as high as they are. However, the Wolverines are still undefeated, and I think Notre Dame is pretty good. My problem is with the rest of their wins – against nobodies – and last year’s history as a blueprint. I don’t know how UM is going to avoid a similar drop-off when they start playing some real teams.

17) Baylor

The Bears get a real chance to prove themselves against Texas A&M this week. They have to take advantage of it to be a player in the Big 12 race. The loss to Kansas State put them in a bad spot to start conference play. At times Baylor didn’t look great against Iowa State, either. They have to up their level of play to compete with this league’s elite squads, starting right now.

18) South Carolina

Is beating Kentucky really that exciting? Thankfully, Mark May was on the set at ESPN last week to calm any ridiculous overreactions, though he was needed more over at SEC-loving CBS. With Stephen Garcia benched and now dismissed, where does this team go? Fortunately, the Gamecocks had already made the QB switch, but this kind of thing can really take an emotional toll on a team.

19) Nebraska

Nebraska is fortunate to not fall farther. It’s OK to drop a team if they get lucky to win, voters. No one thinks Ohio State is good, but for more than two quarters they dominated the Cornhuskers. Nebraska’s offense has been great at times yet inconsistent, though the real issue is the defense. It’s odd to see a Bo Pelini team play so poorly defensively. The Huskers have given up a lot of points in multiple games this season.

20) Houston

Out of nowhere, Houston delivered their best performance of the year. ECU isn’t a bad team and the Cougars took them apart 56-3 last week. Wow. I was this close to writing Houston off completely, but maybe they can still be the team I hoped they would a few months ago. Once again, this is a mid-major, so opportunities to impress are limited, but I liked what I saw out of the Cougars last week.

21) Kansas State

I’m willing to budge on my “K-State got lucky against Baylor” stance, but the Wildcats have to make a statement against Texas Tech this week. The Red Raiders are certainly no pushover, and KSU has played a few close games already in the young season. The game’s in Lubbock, too. Upset alert? It’s not panic time, but Kansas State had better be ready.

22) Michigan State

Back in the rankings after a little hiatus and a well-timed bye, the Spartans have to win this week against rival Michigan to stay here. A lot of things are in MSU’s favor – the home environment, the three-game win streak over UM, the aforementioned bye – but the last time we saw these guys on the field they barely beat Ohio State. Now, Nebraska wouldn’t scoff at that, but anyone who’s been watching knows that’s not a good sign.

23) Washington

Why not? UW has looked very good this whole season outside of a 20-minute stretch in Lincoln. Young Keith Price has been a revelation at QB and the ground game with Chris Polk continues to do its thing. The defense has been a disappointment thus far, but at 4-1 it’s hard to complain too much. It’s possible that the Huskies’ biggest wins to date (Cal and Utah) were merely the result of average competition, yet you can’t help but feel like the team has turned a corner in Seattle. Stanford is next week, so let’s hope so.

24) Notre Dame

I’m back on the Irish bandwagon. After those two fluky opening losses, in which ND committed approximately 85 turnovers, the team is 4-0 with a trio of dominating performances. I think Notre Dame has settled in and they get a bye before the annual USC showdown. Nobody is too sure about the Trojans right now. Notre Dame should win that game and jump back into the rankings soon.

25) Virginia Tech

I really, really wanted to drop VT out of my rankings completely after they barely squeaked by Miami (FL), but in all honesty there wasn’t another worthy team. Yes, Logan Thomas finally lived up to the hype, but come on. The Hokies have some serious issues if they’re beating the Hurricanes by a field goal. The only good team they played spanked them and they’re giving up an additional 19 points a game now that the cupcake nonconference schedule is over.

Teams I wanted to rank but just missed the cut: Texas Tech, Florida State, SMU, Auburn, North Carolina.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Well, this week ought to be interesting. Arizona and UCLA are taking a seat this week, but everyone else is in action and there should be some decent games. I’m fascinated to see how USC-Cal is going to play out on Thursday night. The Trojans have had the Bears’ number for a while now, but SC just clearly isn’t that good this year. It would go a long way toward getting Cal’s season back on track if they can win this one at home.

Washington gets Colorado and should have no trouble there, but the Huskies’ attention will likely be on the Palouse, where next week’s opponent Stanford meets Washington State. Before the season there was talk among Cougars fans that Wazzu could be 5-0 and get College Gameday to come to town for this game, but alas, the team dropped a pair of tight games and sits at just 3-2. That said, the Cougs are no longer pushovers, and they’re honestly the best team the Cardinal will have faced to this point (which isn’t very impressive for Stanford). Additionally, it’s been almost a month since the Cardinal played away from home. The last time they did so, they got off to a very rough start in Tucson.

The two nonconference games involving the Pac-12 are Utah at Pitt (please Utah, for the love of God, win this game) and BYU at Oregon State. Now, I know Oregon State is 1-4, with their win coming over a bad Arizona team. But BYU has been very disappointing this year and their 4-2 record is a mirage. Three of the Cougars’ wins came by a combined 11 points, and the best team they’ve played has been Utah. Who killed them. In Provo. See where I’m going with this? Oregon State should win this game. Riding the momentum of their first win, at home again, I think OSU is the better team here.

The final game of the day is Arizona State at Oregon. Oregon is the better all-around team and should win at home, but there are a lot of things that make this game a question mark. ASU knows how to play Oregon and could have won last season if they hadn’t turned it over seven times. The Sun Devils’ strength – fast, physical defense – is the exact weakness of Oregon’s offensive style. ASU can also move the ball in chunks by both land and air – Oregon’s underwhelming defense struggles when it can’t make teams one-dimensional.

With those concerns in mind, though, I still have to go with the Ducks because of their recent history of Pac-12 dominance and the belief that a Chip Kelly team will never, ever lose a battle of composure with a Dennis Erickson one. ASU hasn’t played in this kind of spotlight for a long time, while Oregon is pretty accustomed to it. And can’t you just see the Sun Devils racking up a dozen penalties and a half-dozen turnovers? It’s kind of their M.O. at this point.

Heisman* Watch

*Luck. That is all.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Still quietly doin’ work at 80 percent completions and a 19:1 TD-to-INT ratio. His accuracy and release are so impressive; the defense rarely has a chance to make a play on the ball because it gets to his target so fast. I love this kid, though I wonder if his poise will hold up once the Big 12 heavyweights force him to run around a little bit.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

There’s not a more polished, traditional QB outside of Luck. Moore has excellent pocket presence, eludes the rush nicely and can place the ball into some tough spots. I have seen some uncharacteristic bad passes from him the last two games, but he’s still hitting on nearly three-quarters of his throws.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Congratulations to TCU on getting into the conference (Big 12) they probably should have been included in a long time ago. Moving to the Big East would have made no sense other than from a “Hey, we’re in a BCS conference now!” standpoint. Problem is, the Big East probably won’t have a BCS bid much longer. With TCU now out of the mix, the league is down to six football schools, and is reportedly considering SMU, ECU, UCF (like I said before, logical fits) and the service academies, among a few others. Ugh. That conference ain’t getting its BCS membership renewed, I can guarantee that.

I really had to take some time to think about my top three teams this week. We’re roughly halfway through the season, and as much as I’d like to include Wisconsin in the discussion, the reality is that it’s LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma. Oklahoma has only played five games to the SEC teams’ six, but by October 29^th it will have all evened out at eight games apiece. That date is significant because it’s the final week before LSU and Alabama play in Tuscaloosa (both teams have a bye the previous week).

Provided all three teams are undefeated at that point, we should be in for a monster final month of the season. And I think they will all be unbeaten. LSU plays Tennessee on the road and Auburn at home, Alabama gets Ole Miss on the road and Tennessee at home (poor Vols), while Oklahoma plays Texas Tech at home sandwiched by visits to the Kansas schools. The winner of the SEC West showdown on November 5^th will obviously be number one and the frontrunner for the conference and national championship. But I wanted to bring a certain point up now, because it’s an idea that started as a whisper and has now been bandied about in earnest for a couple of weeks.

Suppose LSU and Alabama are the two best teams in the country, which is possible. Should the voters ensure that the best two teams in college football play in the BCS title game, even if one has a loss to the other? That is to say, should the two teams play again, even if it means overriding an undefeated team from another BCS conference?

I bring this up now because the idea will gain traction in the next few weeks and the losing coach in the LSU-Bama game will assure everyone that it makes complete and total sense. The voters should obviously vote his team second, right? While it’s arrogant in the extreme on the part of the SEC (surprised?), I wasn’t too averse to it for a while. LSU and Alabama might very well be the two best teams. But then I remembered several things.

First, this has happened before. The “top two teams for the same conference” scenario played out in 2006, when top-ranked Ohio State beat second-ranked Michigan by just three points, at home, in the teams’ regular-season finale. The general consensus was that the Buckeyes and Wolverines – both thoroughly dominant in Big 10 play – were the two best teams in the nation. It was also widely believed that if the game had been played on a neutral field, or in Ann Arbor, the result might have been different. This sentiment was reflected in the following week’s AP Poll, which still had Michigan at second despite the loss. The Wolverines were eclipsed by USC a week later.

But then USC collapsed in the Trojans’ finale against rival UCLA. Florida, ranked below Michigan before the SEC championship game, jumped the Wolverines after beating Arkansas – a team USC had already beaten more handily – thanks in part to a injury to star Razorbacks running back Darren McFadden. The debate was on. Everyone knew Ohio State was the unquestioned top team. But should Michigan be voted into the second spot?

The problem was that the BCS computers liked Michigan a lot, so it was theorized that if the voters (who comprised two-thirds of the BCS ranking) were logical and ranked Florida second and Michigan third the computers might make UM number two in the BCS anyway. To combat this possibility, voters were advised by analysts to artificially deflate Michigan’s poll ranking (i.e., rank them lower than third) if they wanted Florida to come in at number two in the BCS. It’s unclear if the strategy worked – Michigan was still third in the polls, though Florida got the BCS nod – but the Wolverines would have to prove themselves against USC in the Rose Bowl.

Everyone wasn’t satisfied (Michigan fans primarily) but going into the bowl season the two Big 10 teams were still widely thought of as the elite of the elite. This was due to the fact that the Big 10 was unquestionably considered the nation’s best conference. Outside of Ohio State and Michigan, Wisconsin was also 11-1 (thanks to missing both OSU and UM) and the conference had seven bowl teams. Then came what I like to refer to as the Bowl Massacre of ‘06. Minnesota went down. Purdue went down. Iowa went down. That was just the Big 10’s first three postseason games. After Penn State and Wisconsin squeaked out close wins, the picture looked a little better. But the BCS storm was brewing.

Michigan bowed out with a whimper, giving up four second-half touchdown passes in a blowout Rose Bowl loss to USC. Heavily favored Ohio State returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown against Florida – then scored once more all game. Final score: Gators 41, Buckeyes 14. OSU Heisman winner Troy Smith completed just four of fourteen passes, and the age of the SEC had begun.

Looking back, it seems obvious that the Big 10 wasn’t nearly as good as people imagined and the SEC was better than people thought. The SEC’s five straight national titles (along with the Big 10’s repeated failures on the national stage) can attest to that. But that’s exactly why we can’t give the SEC the benefit of the doubt this season. In 2006, everyone knew the Big 10 was the best conference and had the best teams. In 2011, everyone knows the SEC is the toughest conference. In 2006, everyone turned out to be wrong. 2011? We don’t know. We can’t know until the year ends. You can’t automatically give teams from one league more credibility because popular opinion holds that they’re better. Because everyone might be wrong again.

This is before I even get to my personal and highly logical aversion to non-conference champions playing for the national title. It’s absurd. It shouldn’t be allowed. In fact, the BCS should enact a rule against it. Tell me how a team who does not win – or even play for – its own conference championship should be eligible to win the national championship. Find a way to make a logical argument for that.

It should take any rational thinking person about one second to realize that it is impossible. The chant isn’t “We’re number one – except in our own conference.” It’s a paradox to argue otherwise, a logical fallacy. No team that fails to win its conference should ever be allowed to play for the BCS championship. You play in a tough league or tough division? Too bad. You still have to win it, on the field, to earn the right to play for the ultimate prize.

And finally, the biggest reason why both LSU and Alabama shouldn’t play for the title? It’s in the schedule. Look at the list of opponents for the Tigers, Crimson Tide and Sooners. Tell me exactly how either LSU or Alabama’s schedule is superior to Oklahoma’s. In the second half of the season, LSU will face three top 25 teams (going by the AP Poll) and Alabama will play two, with one of the teams’ games coming against each other, obviously. Oklahoma will play four, three of which come on the road. Bama and LSU each play one such game away from home. You want to talk second-half schedule? It isn’t even close.

LSU plays a trio of patsies – Tennessee, Ole Miss and Western Kentucky – to go with home games against Auburn and Arkansas and the road date at Alabama. Alabama gets four pushovers – Tennessee, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Georgia Southern – plus LSU at home and Auburn on the road. Oklahoma? Here’s the final six games (assuming a win over Kansas this weekend): Texas Tech, at Kansas State, Texas A&M, at Baylor, Iowa State, at Oklahoma State. There’s only one bad team in the bunch! Texas Tech is a fringe top-25 team, and other than Iowa State everyone else is ranked!

So now we look at the first half of the season (once again, counting an upcoming Sooners win against Kansas). All three teams commendably traveled away from home to play BCS teams. But that’s where the similarity ends. The problem with judging teams based on how their opponents were ranked at the time they beat them is that it ignores the rest of the season. It’s completely illogical. Common message-board arguments go something like this: LSU’s beaten four ranked teams, Alabama’s beaten three, Oklahoma’s beaten two. Therefore, the polls are right. This is where I slap my head in frustration.

LSU hasn’t beaten four ranked teams. They’ve beaten two: Oregon and West Virginia. Mississippi State WAS ranked when they lost to LSU. Guess what? MSU is garbage. They’re 3-3 and winless in SEC play. The Bulldogs were horribly overrated coming into the season. Same with Florida. At least the Gators piled up some wins against bad competition before getting exposed, but Florida is a bad team, too. The second they faced a squad with a pulse they got hammered.

The same is true for Alabama. I’ve already been over Florida, how about Penn State? The Nittany Lions are terrible. So what if they’re 5-1? They were completely outclassed against the only good team they played. PSU’s wins are against Indiana State, Temple, Eastern Michigan, Indiana and Iowa. Penn State is not a good team. Alabama’s lone top-25 win came against Arkansas, which does count as a quality victory.

Oklahoma has beaten just one currently ranked team in Texas (although, truth be told, they shouldn’t be). Interestingly enough, Florida State (now unranked) is probably a better team than Texas and should prove it by the end of the season. But we’re going by the AP Poll, so the Sooners have one ranked win, too.

What does this all add up to? LSU has the best win (Oregon) of the three, and also showed very un-SEC like boldness in scheduling two nonconference games away from home. Alabama has the best win because the Tide didn’t just beat Arkansas, they crushed them. And as fate would have it, Oklahoma has the toughest schedule.

What’s that? OU has a tougher slate than the SEC teams? Well… yes. It’s actually pretty obvious, when you look at it based on what we now know, rather than what we thought we knew:

All three teams have five away games and seven home games (LSU was the designated away team against Oregon, but the stadium was overwhelmingly pro-Tigers). Their nonconference schedules are fairly comparable. LSU’s was the hardest (two good teams, two creampuffs), followed by Oklahoma’s (one good team, one decent one, one creampuff) and then Bama’s (one decent team, three creampuffs). But Oklahoma plays nine conference games to LSU and Alabama’s eight, because the SEC still hasn’t adopted a big-boy schedule yet. That’s a huge leg up – conference games are way different than nonconference ones. That’s what you’re always telling us, right, SEC?

But it’s not just the number of conference games, it’s the quality of opponents too. Who does LSU play in their league? Mississippi State. Kentucky. Florida. Tennessee. Ole Miss. That’s five mediocre-to-bad teams right there. The rest of the conference slate – Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn – is daunting, but that’s only three games.

Look at Alabama: Florida. Vanderbilt. Ole Miss. Tennessee. Mississippi State. Five bad teams on that schedule too. Once again, the common opponents (Auburn, Arkansas) are tough, but the only really scary game outside of Arkansas is the head-to-head with LSU. Is this picture starting to become clearer?

Now take a longer look at Oklahoma. I see three bad teams: Kansas, Iowa State and Texas (once again, prove me wrong, Longhorns). Missouri, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Baylor? All decent-to-quite good. Then there’s a pair of unquestionably good teams in Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. Argument over. As it turned out, the Big 12 was better than anyone thought. Before the season, this would have been ludicrous. Now, it seems obvious. Sound familiar?

This is why, after much deliberation, I decided to not make any changes to my top three. Nothing about their past or future opponents swayed me from what I’ve seen on the field. As such, Alabama remains first, Oklahoma second, and LSU third. And if OU goes undefeated, well, that’s just too bad for the Tigers-Tide loser. Such is life. And by the way…

This whole debate I haven’t even brought up the elephant in room: what about undefeated Wisconsin? Clemson? Boise State? It might not even matter if Oklahoma DOES lose. An unbeaten team should trump a one-loss team every time. If every team in the country has a loss, we can start talking about the possibility of a title-game rematch. But not before. And that’s the most obvious thing of all.