The Bowls of January, and beyond

So Jim Mora’s the new UCLA coach, eh? Kevin Sumlin’s off to Texas A&M, Larry Fedora is headed to North Carolina, and countless other coaches are… whatever. Don’t care, need more bowl games. The various hirings, firings, ship-jumpings and resignations pale in comparison to the excitement generated so far by this postseason, which has taken a noticeable upswing since Christmas Day. Western Michigan and Purdue went down to the wire in Detroit, as did North Carolina State and Louisville and the following day’s Toledo-Air Force contest. When it comes to sheer insanity, though, the Alamo Bowl might never be topped. Three offensive records were set in Washington and Baylor’s duel to the death, where defenses were optional and tackling merely a suggestion. It’s unlikely that the remaining games will provide us will the same level of excitement, but it’s certain they’ll show off higher quality football.

TicketCity – Jan. 2, 9:00 a.m.

Houston vs. Penn State

Regardless of what you might think about Houston’s legitimacy, the truth is that the Cougars are still a good team. They didn’t play the toughest schedule, but they’re not complete frauds. However, despite the fact that Penn State isn’t great (and really shouldn’t even be playing in a bowl), I see PSU winning. There are a number of issues with Houston right now, starting with the loss of their head coach. The Cougars also have a history of performing poorly against defensive-minded BCS teams, which is directly attributable to their own lack of BCS-level talent. So even though it kills me to pick the Nittany Lions, I’m going to do it. If there’s one thing Penn State does well, it’s play D.

Watchability: Three. If Case Keenum gets going, this will be fun. But I just don’t see it happening.

Outback – Jan. 2, 10:00 a.m.

Michigan State vs. Georgia

Hmmm. A very interesting matchup, this one. I see both teams as overachievers who slipped under the radar despite truly elite teams. With that said, though, both the Bulldogs and Spartans got to double-digit wins and got to their respective championship games. Neither defense is exceptional, but neither team has any players at the skill positions that are exactly all-world either. Michigan State navigated a clearly more difficult schedule, as Georgia beat just two teams with winning records. When matched up against the best teams they played, UGA got hammered. MSU managed to beat Wisconsin once and probably would have done it again if not for an ill-timed penalty. I normally don’t trust Sparty against good competition, but I’ll take them in this game.

Watchability: Four. The only thing lacking is star power, but these teams should make for a good game.

Capital One – Jan. 2, 10:00 a.m.

Nebraska vs. South Carolina

My disdain for Taylor Martinez is probably quite obvious at this point, but I think Nebraska will win this game. South Carolina has had a good month off to figure out their problems and regroup following an injury-plagued and distraction-filled season, but I still don’t think it will be enough. Chief among the Gamecocks’ problems is missing superstar Marcus Lattimore, but even several games weren’t sufficient to adjust to his absence. My question, honestly, is whether Steve Spurrier can still coach. He certainly hasn’t shown much at South Carolina. I don’t have a particularly high opinion of Bo Pelini, either (a little tougher to coach a defense without LSU’s athletes, eh?), but the Cornhusker offense has been varied enough this season that they should be able to overcome even a strong defense like South Carolina’s.

Watchability: Three. Both teams have quality players, but Lattimore was the real draw. There’s no particularly compelling storylines here.

Gator Bowl – Jan. 2, 10:00 a.m.

Ohio State vs. Florida

This game… oh, this game makes me angry. Neither the Buckeyes nor the Gators deserve to be playing in a bowl at all, let alone a January bowl. Really, what’s happened to the Gator Bowl? Hosting two .500 teams with sub-.500 conference records is a disgrace to the good history of this game. Let’s see… OSU’s Braxton Miller is a fun guy to watch, though he’ll make as many cringe-worthy plays as he does great ones. What can you even say about Florida? Umm… Chris Rainey is pretty fast, I guess. No one is expecting a shootout, but the defenses aren’t good enough to make this a true slugfest either. In the end, I’ll take the Buckeyes, because I think their mediocrity is a little better than the Gators. Nothing to write home about.

Watchability: One. On par with the UCLA-Illinois game. Don’t reward these teams by watching.

Rose – Jan. 2, 2:00 p.m.

Wisconsin vs. Oregon

I’ve long liked Wisconsin and wrote before the season that adding Russell Wilson would make the Badgers deadly, turning them from a power-only team to a balanced, true NFL-style attack. At times this season Wisconsin has been just that, mixing up their physically dominating run game with explosive play-action passing. But there have been rough patches too; the Badgers will inexplicably grind to a halt at times, and their massive line can be underwhelming. Oregon has followed the same pattern all three years of the Kelly era, combining a breakneck pace with speedy ballcarriers and extreme precision to accumulate incredible offensive numbers. Dominant defensive fronts have been the only thing that has stopped the Ducks cold. Good news for UO there: Wisconsin’s front four (and seven) are solid yet unspectacular, certainly not close to the caliber of Ohio State, Auburn, or LSU. Oregon should be able to get their playmakers in space fairly regularly. LaMichael James, Kenjon Barner and DeAnthony Thomas are a fearsome trio to defend. As long as the Ducks can maintain the threat of the run and pass, I think they’ll be able to score enough to win. However, so will Wisconsin. Oregon’s difficulties with powerful, ball-controlling offenses are no secret. It’s hard to imagine the Ducks’ undersized front doing much against the earthmovers on the opposing line, and if they sell out to stop the run (as they did against Stanford) Russell Wilson is more than good enough to find Nick Toon and make them pay. Both offenses should move the ball and score, so the game will thus come down to who can make more stops (provided the turnovers are even). The particular matchup I’m interested in is how Wisconsin attacks Oregon’s drop end(s). The Ducks freely shift between three- and four-man fronts, which allows their small, speedy ends to roam. But both of UO’s past two bowl opponents abused those positions using wheel routes, whether they came from the backfield (Ohio State) or the tight end/H-back (Auburn). If Wisconsin tries to do the same, Oregon will need to be ready. I think they’ll adjust accordingly and win. They’ve been the better, more consistent team this season.

Watchability: Five. A fascinating contrast of styles, a bevy of playmakers and a near-guarantee of touchdowns on either side.

Fiesta – Jan. 2, 5:30 p.m.

Stanford vs. Oklahoma State

I’m very impressed with Stanford’s mercurial rise since 2007, just as I am with Oklahoma State’s slightly slower progression from average to good to great. Both schools have been good at times, but they always seemed to figure a bit outside of the national title picture. Stanford finally broke through last season when the Cardinal finished 12-1 and won the Orange Bowl. Now OSU is looking to do the same in their first BCS appearance. The Cowboys’ defense is their weakness; Stanford should be able to move the ball and score. At least, in the first half. But OSU’s offense should run wild on the middling Cardinal D, putting Stanford in a second-half hole. At that point, Andrew Luck will be playing right into the Cowboys’ hands: despite the poor yardage totals, OSU’s defense forces an absurd amount of turnovers. I don’t see any way Stanford slows down Weedon-to-Blackmon, so Luck will have to throw a lot in the second half. When Stanford gets out of their comfort zone like that, bad things happen.

Watchability: Five. I don’t think this is as good a game as the Rose Bowl, but it’s still a pair of top-five teams who boast a lot of future NFL talent.

Sugar – Jan. 3, 5:30 p.m.

Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

Neither team deserves to be here, but there’s no use worrying about it now. Before the ACC championship I would have taken VaTech in a heartbeat, but now I’m not so sure. What was the one thing that gave the Hokies trouble this season? Clemson’s spread, led by mobile signal-caller Tajh Boyd. Say what you will about Denard Robinson – Lord knows I have – but the one thing he is is mobile. Normally Tech strings spread offenses out quite well, winning the individual matchups the scheme creates with discipline. The rematch with Clemson, though, showed that the Hokies aren’t where they usually are defensively. I’ve also been suspicious of VT’s schedule since September. Their paper-thin nonleague resume, coupled with a soft ACC sked, has me worried. Michigan is by no means a great team. The Wolverines did play in a significantly deeper conference and finished with the same number of losses as the Hokies, though. I don’t like picking them, but it’s just impossible to tell where VaTech is mentally right now.

Watchability: Three. It’s the Sugar Bowl, but the participants are decidedly second-tier.

Orange – Jan. 4, 5:30 p.m.

West Virginia vs. Clemson

Man, this is a tough game to pick. Both teams had moments this season that were so shockingly bad you wondered why anyone would rank them. Then there were times (particularly for Clemson) when they looked like real championship material. The Tigers’ hot start and dual blowouts of Virginia Tech had me believing, but they lost three of their last four games of the regular season. West Virginia hung tough with LSU and exploded offensively under Dana Holgorsen, but could only squeak out a three-way tie to win the awful Big East. I like the Mountaineers a lot and I anticipate that they will put up some points. Still, even with my reservations about Clemson’s consistency and relative immaturity in their first BCS game (this is old hat for WVU, after all), I’m taking the Tigers. As long as Boyd doesn’t become a turnover machine like he did in a couple of their losses, Clemson’s superior skill players should win the day. West Virginia has looked good at times, but the Big East is just so bad. I can’t realistically see most of its teams winning against nonconference foes.

Watchability: Four. The offenses are superior to those in the Sugar Bowl and the game should be entertaining and fairly close.

Cotton – Jan. 6, 5:00 p.m.

Kansas State vs. Arkansas

Another difficult matchup to figure. I’ve felt all along that K-State was the classic “bad good team,” doing just enough to win games but fortunate to not be about 7-5. On the other hand, I’ve also thought Arkansas was a fraud all season, as the Razorbacks beat just one team over .500 (Auburn). Who was their second-best win? Texas A&M? KSU beat them too, and they also beat Missouri and Baylor. My head says this game should go to the Wildcats. Collin Klein is a rugged dual threat, tough to handle, and K-State’s been the plucky underdogs all year. They know how to win close games. But despite Arkansas’ questionable resume (the SEC really wasn’t all that good this season), I have to take the Razorbacks for the same reason I picked teams like Mississippi State and Auburn to win their bowls (which they did): we’re talking superior athletes on defense. In Arkansas’ case, they actually have the superior offense too. Tyler Wilson is a solid passer and has a couple of outstanding targets to throw to in Jarius Wright and Joe Adams.

Watchability: Four. Two above-average teams, with a few household names thrown in and a potential springboard for 2012 for both squads.

BBVA Compass – Jan. 7, 10:00 a.m.

SMU vs. Pittsburgh

This bowl should not exist… January bowls are supposed to be special, reserved for the BCS games only (plus the Cotton Bowl, but that’s a special case). I’m so glad these middle-of-the-road teams can take a month off to lengthen their seasons for this meaninglessness. Pitt’s been a head case team – again – failing to build off their wins and dropping games where they shouldn’t. SMU’s wins aren’t spectacular outside of their upset of TCU (which is pretty impressive), but look at the teams the Mustangs lost to: Texas A&M, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Houston, Navy. None of those losses are anything to be ashamed of. They may be a mid-major, but at least they’re consistent. The Panthers, both as a program and this 2011 team, are not. SMU wins.

Watchability: Two. They still have the Run and Shoot, so…

GoDaddy.com – Jan. 8, 6:00 p.m.

Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois

Remember everything I said about January bowls? This is the exception. The Red Wolves and Huskies are conference champions and actually deserve some attention. Ark State’s Ryan Aplin is a competent runner-passer in his own right and he’ll share the stage with NIU’s dangerous Chandler Harnish. The Red Wolves had a storybook year for a downtrodden program, romping through the Sun Belt unbeaten en route to one of the best seasons in school history. They’ve played great defense and had a markedly improved offense over years past. However, it won’t be enough against the explosive Huskies, who bounced back from last season’s disappointing MAC title game loss to claim the crown in 2011. NIU has experienced success more frequently; they know the spotlight fairly well and are accustomed to having a national audience, no small feat for a mid-major. The MAC is also a stronger league than the Sun Belt. NIU will win.

Watchability: Four. These are two legitimately good non-AQ teams that get to show the nation what they’re about as the day’s only game.

BCS Championship – Jan. 9, 5:30 p.m.

Alabama vs. LSU

What is “good” football? How do you define it? Is it the lazy answer – “close” is a synonym for “good” – and leave it at that? Or is it more complicated than that? Last year’s title game was certainly close. It came down to a last-second field goal, after all, so it must have been great. But it wasn’t. The scoreboard masked a truth the box score screamed: sloppy. Both Oregon and Auburn went over 400 yards of offense, yet they combined for fewer than 40 points. Each team had two turnovers and left points on the field. A classic? Hardly. I saw two teams who drove up and down the field on each other only to blow it once they got into scoring range. This season’s LSU-Bama game in Tuscaloosa was quite similar. A three-point contest sounds exciting, but turnovers and missed field goals aren’t hallmarks of a good game. They’re examples of sloppiness, of a lack of mental focus. Alabama frustrates me because their defense is so good the team should be better. Ultimately, this team has fallen into the pattern of the 1985 Chicago Bears, who could be content to let their defense all but win games for them, provided the offense didn’t screw things up. It’s a formula football was built on, but it’s a poor show for a team in 2011. The Crimson Tide simply can’t move the ball if they can’t run you over at the point of attack. It’s worked because they’ve been more talented than every team they’ve played – except LSU. When faced with an opponent their own size, Bama was doomed. LSU plays much the same way, but the unpredictable nature of Les Miles (for both the good and the bad) means the Tigers open things up offensively more consistently than the Tide do. LSU also has the superior receiving core and a running quarterback in Jordan Jefferson who, at least on paper, should provide another wrinkle for the Alabama defense to worry about.

Am I totally convinced LSU will win? No. These are near-identical brilliant defenses and near-identical sluggish offenses, so anything could happen. But I’m more confident in the LSU QB’s than I am in Bama’s, crazy as that sounds. Could Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson winning the national championship trigger the apocalypse? It is 2012, after all. I love Trent Richardson, but it’s going to take an unreal effort for him to singularly carry this team to the title. I will say this, though: that ’85 Bears squad won the Super Bowl.

Watchability: Four. It’s the national championship, but otherwise do you really expect to be entertained by this game? I count quality offense just as important as quality defense when determining if a game is good.

And though it’s old news by now, I should address it: the Big East is a madhouse, and will need to do something about that name. By my estimation, “East” does not mean “California to New York.” Ridiculous.