Au Revoir

It seemed a good idea to wait a few days before reflecting on the 2012 season in order to fully appreciate everything that happened. No, Alabama’s butt-kicking for the ages didn’t need any extra thought, but the overall bowl experience only served to muddle the national picture once more. The SEC rebounded from a rocky start to post huge blowouts in its final two games, leaving no doubt as to which conference remains at the top of the mountain (a seventh straight championship will do that as well). The two contenders for second, though, both had lackluster campaigns. The Big 12 seemed poised to emphatically grab the title after the Pac-12 dropped to just 2-4 in the postseason, including a blowout loss by UCLA to Baylor. But the leagues’ fortunes reversed following the start of the New Year. The Big 12 lost its last two and three of its last four, culminating in successive humbling efforts by Oklahoma and Kansas State, the latter of which lost to Oregon. Stanford also won in the BCS, pulling the Pac-12 back up to .500 while the Big 12 dropped to 4-5.

The ACC finished with the same winning percentage as the SEC, but played only six bowls to the SEC’s nine. Meanwhile, the Big East continued its surprising success in the postseason, with yet another team downing a higher-regarded foe in a BCS game. Of course, both conferences played weaker opponents than the rest of their automatic-qualifying brethren, but the Sugar and Orange Bowl wins still count. Bringing up the rear (of the BCS conferences) was the Big 10, which gratefully waved goodbye to a miserable 2012 after going 2-5.

So what lies ahead for 2013? The SEC shows no signs of releasing its death grip on the sport, even though it took a couple of surprising losses to even get Alabama back into the title game. The truth is that this run won’t be over until someone beats an SEC team in the championship, and even then Alabama will probably need to be the team that loses. No one will be impressed if the Big 12 or Pac-12 champion wins the title over South Carolina or Arkansas. The season’s final rankings thus point toward where college football might end up in the final year of the BCS.

Alabama ends 2012 the same way it did 2011 and 2009 (and were it not for some ethically murky schedule-making in the SEC, 2010 as well). The Crimson Tide will undoubtedly start next season as the unanimous number one team. They should, they’ve earned it. All of my doubts about this inexperienced but otherwise very talented group were answered by season’s end: the young receivers performed like veterans, the committee of backs adequately replaced Trent Richardson and the defense calmly reloaded to put up similar, if slightly lesser, numbers to 2011. If the program continues at this clip, Alabama will win the next ten national titles.

Of course, that’s improbable because it’s incredibly difficult for a coach and his players to maintain that level of excellence for that long without slipping. We saw that this year when the Tide lost to Texas A&M. At any point, any seemingly unbeatable juggernaut can be brought to its knees. It happened to Nebraska, it happened to Miami (FL) and it happened to USC. Eventually Alabama’s run will end. But with Nick Saban apparently committed to Tuscaloosa long-term, the program is in better shape to sustain a dynasty than any of those others schools. It’s a scary thought.

If the Tide are firmly ensconced at the top, who can challenge them? Even before the thrashing of Notre Dame ended, prognosticators were throwing out ideas for next season. Notre Dame, after that performance, is clearly not on the same level as the nation’s elite. Stanford is on the rise and the team best equipped to match Alabama’s roughneck style, but the Cardinal lack the versatility of the Tide. ‘Bama can play with or without the lead; Stanford, as currently assembled, must always be within one or two scores to win games.

Challenges could come from within the SEC, from Texas A&M, LSU, Florida, Georgia or South Carolina. But all those teams, like Stanford, have issues that would ultimately make them underdogs to Alabama. A&M will probably suffer a sophomore slump next season. LSU loses a lot defensively and still hasn’t found a quarterback; they won’t beat Alabama without one. Florida used the Sugar Bowl as their non-coming out-party. Georgia has lived a charmed life for the past two seasons but this year the schedule catches up with them as they play LSU and Clemson. South Carolina has a lot of potential but a small window. I think the Gamecocks need to knock off ‘Bama while they still have Jadeveon Clowney or they’re not going to do it.

While all the SEC rivals are formidable, Alabama would still be favored against each one. That leaves Oregon, the team that many are already projecting as the Tide’s opponent in next season’s BCS Championship. These way-too-early predictions are just that, but there’s logic to them as well. Oregon’s radically different style is hard to emulate and the Ducks do have a lot coming back in 2013. Oregon is better than the Texas A&M team that beat ‘Bama this year. But for all of Oregon’s advantages, Alabama has a counter. The Tide are so stocked with great athletes on defense it seems imperative to get them during the wear of the regular season. Given the 40 or so days off for a bowl game, it’s very hard to pick against them. The Ducks would need to play a brilliant game built from an outstanding gameplan and get up early like the Aggies did. Even then, if you recall, A&M needed a last-second pick at the goal line to secure victory. That’s the kind of battle Oregon would be in for. It could happen. It’s just not likely.

All of this could change. The Tide could be struck by injuries next season. Players could regress, or some of the touted guys coming in could turn out to be program-killing busts. Perhaps Alabama has been secretly paying recruits and gets blindsided by the NCAA. The fact that these are the biggest obstacles to another title, though, tells you all you need to know about the current separation between this team and the rest of the country.

Pac-12 Final Report

In a strange twist, the conference ended up more or less where it started when the year began. Early upsets of ranked, big-name nonleague foes buoyed the Pac-12’s reputation substantially. Oregon State knocked off Wisconsin. UCLA took out Nebraska. Arizona beat Oklahoma State. In a move that actually helped the conference’s national reputation, Stanford upset USC, another example of how badly preseason polls skew the season’s actual results. When a series of teams started to beat each other in conference play, outsiders started to praise the Pac-12 for its depth, not unlike the SEC. If Stanford beat USC, the Cardinal had to be good. If Washington then beat Stanford, so did the Huskies. All the while, Oregon State was creeping out to a 6-0 record, its best since 1905. With Oregon and USC already assumed to be BCS title contenders, anything else just made the league look good.

Then the other shoe dropped. USC collapsed like the frauds they were. Arizona did likewise (though not before beating USC). Oregon State went 3-3 down the stretch. And in the most damaging result of all for the conference, Oregon was upset by Stanford, costing the Ducks a trip to the national championship against Kansas State or Notre Dame, two teams they would have dominated. The slump continued into the postseason, where the Pac-12 started 2-4 (including a miraculous 13-point comeback from sure defeat by Arizona) with a couple of truly embarrassing blowouts. Even Stanford’s win over middling Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl was unimpressive. Oregon’s strong victory over Kansas State wasn’t enough. The damage had been done during the second half of the season. The Pac-12’s reputation isn’t any lower than it was at the start of the year, but it’s not any higher either.

So what does 2013 have in store? There will no doubt be a lot of changes before next year begins, but here’s the state of each team at the end of bowl season.

North:

Oregon will be the favorite to win the North and the conference. The Ducks return most of the offense (Kenjon Barner notwithstanding) and a decent portion of the D. Most importantly, UO’s style allows many players to get experience, so even younger roster members can make contributions without starting next season. The loss of Chip Kelly is big, but not crippling. Barring setbacks with the NCAA – and that’s a BIG question mark – Oregon will be loaded again.

Stanford will be the close second to UO. With an ever-growing offensive line and an improving group of athletes on defense, the Cardinal will be the team best-equipped to challenge the Ducks. They’ll need more from their offense to become truly elite, but this is a talented team. Finally getting over the hump and winning the conference this season was a big deal. My only question is whether this program can keep up this level of excellence, which has been difficult in the past.

Oregon State’s young group rebounded exceptionally from the disappointments of years past and returns a solid number of players as well. The Beavers will surely miss their best players on both sides (receiver Markus Wheaton, corner Jordan Poyer), but have a committee of backs and receivers on offense and secondary players on defense who should be able to soften the blow. The issue is QB: can Sean Mannion fully recover from his knee injury and consistently play like the guy we saw at the beginning of 2012, or was that an overachieving fluke? OSU’s fortunes depend on the answer.

Washington continued to make strides (and upset at least one big opponent) in Steve Sarkisian’s third year. Still, it’s obvious the offense took a step back and the team ended with the same record as 2011 after looking set up for a nine-win finish. To return to the Pac-12’s upper echelon, the Huskies need both their explosive offense of 2011 and their plucky defense of 2012. While improving, the program has been caught by Oregon State and passed by Stanford. As their league rivals up their game, UW needs to do the same.

Washington State’s first season under Mike Leach was underwhelming, it’s true. The offense was certainly below Air Raid standard and the Cougars’ defensive limitations were on full display. However, the Apple Cup comeback had to be heartening. There is talent on this team and Leach should be the right type of coach to utilize it. That’s not to say it won’t be a slog back to relevance, but more time in the system should start to pay dividends in 2013.

Despite finishing above Wazzu, Cal had to be the last team on this list. The Golden Bears entered 2012 with decent hopes that were dashed to pieces by a 3-9 finish and the firing of Jeff Tedford. I liked Tedford but had long maintained that he and Cal needed to part ways; here’s hoping Sonny Dykes can get this team back on track. Cal has way too many resources – player and otherwise – to be this bad. Dykes is a Mike Leach disciple who led Louisiana Tech to a huge 2012. Let’s see what he can do in a year or two.

South:

UCLA came from semi-nowhere to beat USC and win the division. With a new coach in Jim Mora and a new QB in Brett Hundley, it seems the Bruins have finally broken their rival’s stranglehold on L.A. Can they keep it up? UCLA has not been consistent in the past 15 years. Seasons of promise have led to missed expectations and coaching turnover, despite the fact that the program sits in one of the most talent-rich areas in the country. This team needs to capitalize now on the Trojans’ misfortune.

Arizona State missed out on the South title by virtue of one late UCLA drive but had to feel very good after ending the year with an upset of Arizona and a bowl blowout. Todd Graham’s first season surpassed everyone’s expectations, largely thanks to his dedication to cleaning up a sloppy, undisciplined team. Of course, it also helped to have a great new QB in the fold in Taylor Kelly, who is poised to lead the Sun Devils for years to come. Who knew all ASU had to do was get rid of Dennis Erickson?

USC can only go up from here after their embarrassing 2012 ended with losses in five of their last six games. Lane Kiffin may not have been fired but he’s on a blazingly hot seat and losing Matt Barkley and Robert Woods is not going to help. I think the Trojans will win more than seven games next year, but they certainly won’t be favored to win the division or the conference. For this program, that’s unacceptable. Kiffin has a lot to prove, fast.

Arizona was the definition of up-and-down throughout 2012, but it had to be considered a successful first year in the Rich Rodriguez era. The Wildcats notched a giant upset over Oklahoma State in week two, rebounded from a couple of close losses and were poised to stunningly win the South at 5-3 after upsetting USC. But they went 2-2 down the stretch, with both losses at the hands of their division brethren UCLA and ASU. Losing Matt Scott is a big deal. However, the program looks in infinitely better shape than it did with Mike Stoops.

It’s unfair to criticize Kyle Wittingham and Utah too harshly for 2012’s failures. For the second straight season, the Utes lost veteran QB Jordan Wynn for the year to a shoulder injury, at the cost of the entire offense. There’s no denying that Utah, with its quality defense, would have been a different team with a competent signal-caller. However, the squad has to make plans without Wynn and keep improving its depth, which has been suspect since moving up to a BCS conference. At this point Utah has not yet looked ready to compete in the Pac-12.

Although the Buffaloes beat fellow bottom-dweller Wazzu, it’s obvious this is the worst team in the conference. There are a lot of questions over whether firing Jon Embree was the right move, but what’s done is done. CU has been horrendous the past two seasons; think 2008-2010 Washington State bad. There are few players on the roster who would start for any other teams in the league, there’s no identity on offense or defense and the coaching situation is in flux. Unfortunately, this may yet get worse before it gets better. History shows that Colorado is a place where football games can be won. It’s just hard to see that happening in the near future.

Season-ending Thoughts

I don’t even know where to begin with the Manti Te’o story. Suffice it to say that his and Notre Dame’s explanation of what happened seems more than a little suspect, and even if this Tuiasosopo character (dear Lord, there’s ANOTHER one?) confesses to everything many people will never believe this was anything but a cover-up. Only Te’o knows what happened and I doubt he’ll ever come clean. I’d like to believe that he lied to school officials about the situation and they were unaware… but this is Notre Dame. Myth-making is practically a major there.

In more relevant Notre Dame news, I went looking for answers as to why the Irish defense – so good during the regular season – looked utterly outmatched against the good, but not elite Alabama offense. Granted, the Tide play a physical, in-your-face game, but style isn’t enough to explain the domination we saw. Notre Dame led the entire country in scoring defense (before the bowls). An elite D should have been able to do something to adjust. So was it possible that the Fighting Irish’s strong defense was a product of a weak schedule?

Recall, in August, that Notre Dame’s schedule was daunting. 10 BCS conference opponents, the only good academy (Navy) and a solid independent (BYU) lay in wait. If the team could get through that minefield unscathed, they deserved to play for a national championship, I said. And they did. However, as the season progressed it became clear that, through no fault of its own, many of the team’s opponents were decidedly underperforming. USC was the biggest flop, but Oklahoma – despite a 10-win season – underachieved as well (Side note: Kirk Herbstreit, how do you feel about OU playing in the BCS now?).

This trend continued down the Irish’s schedule. With the exception of Stanford (and we all know how that game ended), not one of Notre Dame’s foes lived up to the hype. BYU dropped to 7-5. Likewise for Miami (FL). Traditional rivals Michigan and MSU were a combined 14-10. All in all, the schedule turned out to be merely average. More to the point, the offenses the Irish faced weren’t even that. That’s where the defensive numbers begin to be explained.

Notre Dame faced exactly three offenses ranked in the nation’s top 50, and even that comes with an asterisk – USC, the lowest ranked of the three, was playing without Matt Barkley (One might argue that being coached by Lane Kiffin was in fact a bigger handicap, but I can neither confirm nor deny that). In any case, that’s a pretty easy group of offenses to play against. The story becomes even clearer when you compare Notre Dame to the other scoring defenses in the top five nationally: Alabama, BYU, Rutgers and Florida.

Each of those teams played at least four top-50 offenses and none was against a crippled team like USC. Additionally, comparing the 12 FBS offenses each of the five defenses faced in descending order (from best to worst) reveals a couple of things. For one, Notre Dame had the strongest opponent in only two of twelve games (their eighth- and ninth-best foes), while they had the weakest opponent in three and the second-weakest in two more. In eight of 12 games – or two-thirds of the season – the Irish faced the third, fourth or fifth rated offense, i.e., average to below-average. That includes each of the best seven offenses they played.

This is particularly relevant because the gap in quality gets much wider past the middle of the pack. At a certain point, be it ranked 75^th or 85^th, an offense just isn’t very good. Every offense in the top 50 is pretty solid. All of the top-five defenses played at least one top-25 offense, so those numbers are about even. But because the other schools faced additional offenses near that level of quality and Notre Dame did not, the results show that the Irish faced a fairly weak set of teams en route to their lofty defensive ranking.

Even with this information, though, I wasn’t satisfied. There wasn’t a consistent pattern to explain what made the ND defense overrated. That’s because I hadn’t noticed the outlier. Oklahoma’s offense finished 12^th in the nation and Notre Dame played its best game of the season – on both sides – against the Sooners. But OU was by far the best team the Irish faced. What would happen, I wondered, if you eliminated the best and worst offenses each team played and then re-averaged those opponents?

The results speak for themselves:

                      Average rank of opposing offense       Average rank (minus best/worst)

Florida           58.4                                                      58.3

Alabama        64.7                                                      65.5

Rutgers         70.4                                                      71.5

BYU               71.3                                                      71.7

Notre Dame   69.8                                                      82.6

First off, well done, Florida. A top-five defense with that schedule? Wow. When you consider how bad Florida’s offense was, you can make a strong case that the Gators, not the Tide, had the nation’s best defense. Now, about these numbers. It’s fairly obvious that Oklahoma severely skewed Notre Dame’s average. None of the other four schools here saw their number change by any more than about one point. Notre Dame’s skyrocketed. It further explains why the Irish defense was “less than meets the eye.” All of these teams played a few terrible offenses and few so-so ones, but only Notre Dame failed to face any that were truly great (save one).

By the way, I also didn’t count the national championship, when Notre Dame gave up 42 points.

It was a wild and wonderful season. True, I had hoped someone other than an SEC team might be holding the crystal football in January, but there’s always next year. This was also a season in which I learned a few lessons, which I’d like to share.

Traditional football logic says that offense wins games and defense wins championships. That’s certainly never been truer than in this SEC-centric age. However, within that philosophy there’s always been a certain understanding that crucial to playing great defense is the ability to keep said defense rested by denying the opposition the ball. Hence the decades of offenses based on rushing as a first, second and third option. The spread revolution of the past decade has been the greatest challenger in history to that philosophy and changes in the rules at the pro and college level have enabled offenses to soar to heights that would have been laughable only a generation ago.

Running the football, though, requires at least a token ability to keep the defense honest with the threat of the pass. One of my biggest irritants is teams that win by stubbornly handing the ball off 40 times and tossing a half-dozen bad passes a game with a mediocre QB. However, given the success of several SEC schools in the past several years, it’s become clear this formula is not without merit. By placing the best athletes on the defense (to keep games close) and at the skill positions (to break one or two big plays), these teams can play this ugly style to great effect. It’s immaterial that they get stuffed on the ground over and over, as long as the QB can get the ball downfield more or less in the area of one of his talented receivers on that one occasion the defense bites. It’s an aggravating strategy, but what’s inarguable is that it’s effective.

How will the rest of the country respond? They’ve got eight months to figure something out and end the conference’s stranglehold on the sport. For some reason, I think they’ll be ready. Until then, we’re all just living in an SEC world, albeit one in which their boost from the BCS will soon disappear. Who knows what the brave new world of a playoff will hold? The countdown has begun.

BCS Championship (and more!)

All I have to say is, bowl season is a wacky time. I saw pretty much what I expected in the Orange Bowl when Florida State methodically wore down Northern Illinois. The ensuing night, however, I got the exact opposite of my pregame prediction in the Sugar Bowl. Louisville absolutely crushed Florida, which, when combined with LSU’s earlier loss to Clemson, threw some doubt into the SEC’s bulletproof image. Texas A&M’s stampeding win over Oklahoma helped fix that a little, but Alabama will need to handily beat Notre Dame – which they’re very capable of doing – to fully restore the league’s name.

In other news, the Pac-12 escaped bowl season with a 4-4 record after winning its final two (and most important) games, the Rose and Fiesta. However, there’s no hiding how overrated the conference looked in the postseason. All of the good will built up from its strong non-league performance is gone, and now the Pac-12 will need a repeat of that showing in 2013 to once again garner national respect. While Oregon easily beating Kansas State was important, it won’t go nearly far enough to help the entire conference.

There are only three games left, one each day until Monday’s BCS Championship. As always, they are rated on a 1-5 scale and listed in Pacific time.

BBVA Compass Bowl

Pittsburgh (6-6) vs. Ole Miss (6-6)

January 5, 10:00 a.m.

Actively shun this game. The worst trend of the bowl explosion – even worse than the newer bowls butting in on the New Year’s Day party – has been the addition of horrendous games like this between the title game and the rest of the BCS bowls. What do these two .500 teams, neither of which deserves to be in the postseason, get out of playing this game? At the very least, these bowls should be played in the first week to get them out of the way. Anyway, Pitt and Ole Miss are a pair of teams who both had a losing record in conference play and have zero positive or interesting characteristics whatsoever. The Panthers’ record was a product less of ineptitude and more of inconsistency. The team alternated two wins and two losses all season long, upsetting Rutgers and Virginia Tech but losing to Youngstown State. Pitt’s saving grace was its defense, which gave up only 20 points a game. Ole Miss gave up a full touchdown more but was also more productive offensively. I’d say the outcome of this game depends on which Panthers team shows up. If it’s good Pitt, the Rebels will be in trouble. If not, it could go either way. I’ll bet on that happening and take Pittsburgh.

Watchability: 1. Probably doesn’t deserve that.

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Kent State (11-2) vs. Arkansas State (9-3)

January 6, 6:00 p.m.

This is a clash of styles. Kent State is a bunch of old-fashioned grinders with an opportunistic defense, while Arkie State looks to spread you out and go. The Golden Flashes are feeling a bit of a letdown following the double-overtime loss to NIU in the MAC Championship that cost them a spot in the Orange Bowl. Whether that carries over to the actual game will be important. The Red Wolves were shocked in their first Sun Belt game but reeled off seven straight to end the year as repeat conference champions.

 Despite playing in a stronger conference (the MAC) and achieving a better record, I’m not confident in Kent State here. For how many turnovers their defense forces the Flashes aren’t very stout yardage-wise and they certainly don’t have the weapons to come back if they fall behind. This is a team that needs to play in front. Arkansas State, meanwhile, has a solid quarterback in Ryan Aplin who has both talented receivers to throw to and a good running back to hand off to in David Oku. The Red Wolves will win this game.

Watchability: 3. The extreme differences in scheme make this an interesting matchup.

BCS National Championship

Alabama (12-1) vs. Notre Dame (12-0)

January 7, 5:30 p.m.

Finally, here we are. It was a strange and almost unbelievable last few months to get to this point, but that seems to be becoming the norm in college football. This is a dream matchup from a media perspective, though from an actual football point of view it may end it up somewhat lacking. You’ve heard the adage “Defense wins championships”? Nobody will argue that point this year. Notre Dame features the nation’s number one scoring defense. Alabama is second. Both teams needed their defenses to carry them, because their offenses are pedestrian. The statistical measure of the offenses, though, fails to tell the whole story. ‘Bama will be favored because there are actually several young but talented players at the skill positions (not to mention likely the best offensive line in the country). Amari Cooper is a future star at wideout, while both T.J. Yeldon and the dependable Eddie Lacy rushed for 1,000 yards. The Fighting Irish have less to work with; Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick are good slotback-type guys, but neither is capable of carrying an offense. Notre Dame’s best weapon is end Tyler Eifert. He’s a great one, but offenses who rely on their tight end as their biggest playmaker eventually find out that their inability to stretch a defense vertically is a problem. Just ask Stanford. The most important position against these strong defenses is QB and the Crimson Tide have the edge there as well. A.J. McCarron, much like his predecessor Greg McElroy, has slowly transformed from a neutrino into a positron (go with it). He came of age in last year’s BCS Championship against LSU, has improved from his simple caretaker days and is now capable of winning a game rather than only managing. Notre Dame’s Everett Golson is the opposite. A bit of an enigma and still just a sophomore, he managed to finagle 12 wins out of the Irish’s schedule this year (though at times he left the game for senior Tommy Rees). He’s a talented athlete but a mediocre passer. For ND to have any chance he will need to have a great, efficient game.

I don’t see it happening. Alabama is once again loaded with top-tier defensive players who will make it to the next level. It would be astonishing if a Nick Saban-coached team allowed a guy like Golson to run around and win the game. The Irish don’t have the receivers to pressure ‘Bama on the edge, which will allow the Tide to mercilessly attack the run game (which isn’t even that good). Notre Dame will try to do the same, but Alabama is better offensively and will eventually score. Building a lead, they’ll be able to do what they do best: run people over inside. Once trailing, the Irish will be unable to crack the ‘Bama D by repeatedly passing. The offense isn’t good enough or fast enough to make up a big deficit. Notre Dame found itself down big in the second half only once this season and it took a terrible penalty to bail them out of it. They’re not used to playing from behind and they’re not equipped to do it. Alabama wins and covers.

Watchability: 5. The offenses could be hard on the eyes, but the defenses are very good.

That’s it for 2012. I plan to return once more with some final thoughts and observations. When the bowls end I’ll be here, as I always am. The countdown to the playoff starts in three days!