End of September musings

National Overview

I wish I could have gotten a post out last week, but I just didn’t have the time. I apologize to anyone who was hoping to see an update.

Crazy little weekend we had, no? It looked for about three quarters as if Alabama was going down, but Arkansas let the Crimson Tide hang around for too long and blew their chance to make a huge statement. TCU and Nebraska won, albeit unimpressively; Oregon prevailed in a bizarre, sloppy game, and Texas got absolutely hammered by UCLA.

Of course, sometimes the haves do exactly what they’re supposed to and pummel the have-nots into submission, a la Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa, who won by a combined score of 188-23. Granted, it was against a group of patsies, but that’s a topic for later. A blowout is still a blowout.

The Big 12 avoided total disaster when Oklahoma held off Cincinnati’s upset bid, but that Texas loss stung. UCLA looked horrible in their first two games, and despite their upset last week of Houston no one thought they had a shot against the Longhorns. Texas was clearly overrated and the Big 12 will probably suffer for it. I don’t know if the league can handle Nebraska being the sole national title contender.

Still, the Big East would have gladly swapped places with the Big 12 if it could have. I don’t recall ever seeing a conference start a season as poorly as the Big East this year, and it continued this week as top contenders West Virginia and Pittsburgh fell to out-of-conference foes. At least WVU kept things close against LSU, though; Pitt looked atrocious against Miami (FL). The argument that the Big East is too weak to be a BCS conference seems to finally be true, and with the rise of the Mountain West it will be interesting to see if the league can keep its automatic-qualifying status.

The play of the Pac-10, on the other hand, has been very impressive. After a 2-5 bowl record last year it was assumed that the conference would be down in 2010, but thus far it appears that the overall depth of the league was underrated. It’s not clear yet if there are any truly elite teams, though the middle third of the Pac-10 has proved to be good enough to compete with most of the country. But be warned, fans of Pac-10 schools: this will likely cause every team to finish with multiple losses.

Top 25

As I stated before, I wanted to wait a few weeks before making any kind of ranking because we simply don’t know enough about the teams after week one or two, let alone before the season starts. I compiled these rankings after watching as many different teams as possible, as many times as possible. My list is relatively similar to the regular polls, but the advantage I have is that I can radically change teams’ position based on a single game from here on out, unlike the generally slow-to-react AP and Coaches polls. With that in mind, here is my initial top 25:

1) Alabama

Impressive? Yes. Overwhelmingly so? No. But given that the Tide are the defending champs and return so much talent, perfection is not required. Wins over Penn State and Arkansas are acceptable proof that ‘Bama is still the nation’s number one team.

2) Ohio State

I’m on record as saying the Buckeyes win over Miami (FL) didn’t impress me much, but OSU deserves to be ranked highly for now. They’ve clobbered the cupcakes they played, as great teams do, and will get a chance to really prove themselves in conference play. Tons of home games help too.

3) Boise State

Two wins over teams with top-25 talent is solid, even if those teams are going to spend the next month or so working their way back into the rankings. Nothing about Boise to this point has been anything less than advertised. The problem will come in the next two months, when the Broncos’ strength of schedule starts to really hurt them.

4) Oregon

Three blowouts and one shaky conference opener later, the Ducks are pretty much where people thought they would be before all the offseason issues. But is Oregon a true contender? We won’t have to wait long to find out. Championship caliber teams respond against top competition like the Ducks face Saturday in Stanford.

5) TCU

Before the SMU game I would have had the Horned Frogs fourth, but their sloppiness and defensive problems trumped those of the Ducks (and against an inferior opponent). TCU fans needn’t worry, tough: their team will have ample opportunities to impress voters through the Mountain West season. Going undefeated would even give them a better resume than Boise State.

6) Stanford

The most impressive team in the nation thus far despite some offensive struggles against Notre Dame. The Cardinal are on a roll – a big, physical roll – and come into this week’s showdown against Oregon with a lot of confidence. They absolutely have the ability to pull the upset and take control of the Pac-10 race – can they capitalize on the opportunity?

7) Nebraska

Nebraska managed only a strange 14-point win over South Dakota State, but now faces a very favorable conference schedule. Texas is the only currently ranked team the Cornhuskers will face, and everyone saw what happened to the Longhorns last week. The Big 12 North is also very weak, so there shouldn’t be any potential pitfalls on the way to the conference title game.

8) Oklahoma

The Sooners have survived a pair of very close calls recently, but at 4-0 with wins over Florida State, Air Force and Cincinnati you really can’t fault them too much. I still like this team, but they need to improve their play to become a real contender. We’ll know more after this week’s Red River Shootout (I refuse to use the new, politically correct “Red River Rivalry.” Give me a break).

9) Utah

Does it seem a little high? Possibly, but then again there haven’t been a whole lot of consistently great squads this year. The big win over Pitt in the opener now seems worthless, but the Utes have still comfortably blown out their other opponents. I just don’t think many teams could beat these guys in a one-game scenario.

10) Arizona

Another pleasant surprise of the early season has been the overall excellent play of the Wildcats. Completely dismantling a decent Toledo team was one thing, but the signature win over Iowa could be the gift that keeps on giving for Arizona. With national respect now in their pocket, the Cats just have to avoid a letdown (like they almost suffered last week) until they face the Pac-10’s heavy hitters.

11) Florida

I’ve seen nothing so far to support the idea that the Gators should be ranked in the top 10. Ugly victories over weak non-conference foes and a tenuous quarterback situation have made UF a sell so far this year. A post-Tebow hangover has definitely hit this team, and what’s with that center snap problem?

12) Wisconsin

The Badgers got lucky to beat Arizona State and plowed through the rest of their nonleague slate with only mild difficulty. Their record looks impressive, but we’ve seen this before when Wisconsin gets out to a hot start against bad teams. I can’t take Wisconsin seriously until they beat some good teams, starting this week against Michigan State.

13) Auburn

This is a very tentative ranking. Auburn was fortunate to beat both Mississippi State and Clemson and we still don’t know if the win over South Carolina was a quality one. But it’s hard not to get excited about the Tigers’ 4-0 start. I think at some point they’ll get exposed, but for now I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

14) Arkansas

Oh, talk about missed opportunities. The Razorbacks had the Alabama game won and just let it slip through their fingers. You can’t drop them too far for a four-point loss to the nation’s top team, but it’s clear that the Hogs’ offseason issue – defense – is a legitimate one. They simply couldn’t stop the Tide in crunch time.

15) Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes have been really sloppy so far, and it cost them against Ohio State. The good news is that The U won’t see anyone as talented as the Buckeyes again all season. Great teams beat inferior competition handily, which Miami did against Pitt. I still see the ‘Canes as the most likely team to win the ACC.

16) LSU

LSU has been solid on defense and special teams but just awful offensively. The Tigers have been looking for a QB for three years and still haven’t found one. It’s killed them in conference play the last few seasons and it will again this year. The saving grace is that aforementioned defense, which will keep them in games.

17) USC

The wins have been uneven and have come against weaker opponents, but USC is still undefeated and, well, USC. The talent is there and some people have questioned whether the Trojans are just biding their time as other Pac-10 teams get attention. While this team does appear to have taken a step back, they could still definitely contend for the conference title.

18) South Carolina

The “other” USC missed a golden opportunity to move up in the SEC world last week, but all is not lost. The Gamecocks have been the most consistent squad in their division thus far and could surprise everyone by making the SEC title game. A renewed commitment to the run has been very beneficial for this team.

19) Iowa

I think Iowa has gotten very lucky in several games the past few seasons, but these things always even out, as seen by the Arizona loss two weeks ago. This year the Hawkeyes have been appropriately dominant versus bad teams, but they now face four consecutive ranked Big 10 opponents. It’s not a question of “if” they’ll lose; it’s a question of “when,” because wins over the right teams could still position Iowa for a run at the conference crown.

20) Michigan

Michigan is the kind of team everyone really wants to like: they’re young, talented and exciting. But despite the Wolverines offensive brilliance the truth is that they still haven’t played anybody of note. It’s possible that they could start strong and wilt once they get into conference play, though they should at least play a role in determining who win the Big 10.

21) Nevada

I’ve long admired the Pistol offense coach Chris Ault invented, which curiously has just now begun to make waves in the media. To be honest, though, Nevada is a typical mid-major; good enough to run through a weak conference like the WAC and upset a BCS team or two, but not anywhere near top 10 material. They probably don’t have a chance of unseating Boise State atop the conference, but it’ll be fun to watch them for most of the year.

22) Michigan State

The gritty Spartans have done a great job the past couple of seasons moving up in the Big 10 pecking order. Now they need to take the next step. MSU gets Wisconsin and Michigan in the next two weeks and can legitimize themselves in the eyes of voters with victories. Both games are quite winnable, so it’s up to the team to take advantage of this situation.

23) North Carolina State

The big surprise so far out of the ACC (excluding Virginia Tech – we’re not counting bad surprises) by far has been the Wolfpack. They’re sitting in a great position right now as the last undefeated ACC team and don’t have a single currently ranked opponent on their schedule. If they can avoid a letdown this week against a still-dangerous Tech squad, they could really start to dream big.

24) Penn State

Whether Penn State deserves any credit at all as a top 25 team will be decided this week. The Nittany Lions have lost back-to-back upsets to Iowa and have done nothing so far this season to prove they are for real. I was suspicious of PSU when the year started, and this week could be the final strike against them if they get beat by the Hawkeyes again.

25) Air Force

The Falcons are leading the nation in rushing and are three points from being undefeated and having an upset of Oklahoma on their resume. But the academy will probably take 3-1 at this point given how they hammered BYU. Air Force is going to have some nice warm up games before they face the Mountain West’s twin-headed monster of TCU and Utah, so don’t be surprised if the Falcons pull an upset somewhere down the road.

Pac-10 Notes

Oregon’s clash with Stanford this week will obviously go a long way toward deciding the Pac-10 title. But might Arizona’s last-gasp victory over California last week play a role as well? I’m not suggesting that Cal is going to contend for the conference crown – we’ve all seen this movie before, and it ends with a boatload of failed expectations and a 7-5 record – but the Wildcats could end up quite thankful that they got the W.

Why? Even though Oregon plays both Arizona and Stanford at home, it will still be a tall order for the Ducks to go undefeated in league play. Remember, no team has yet gone undefeated in the Pac-10 since the league expended to a nine-game conference schedule in 2006. If ‘Zona goes 1-1 against the Cardinal and Ducks, their avoidance of a nasty second loss on their resume could end up being huge.

The Oregon-Stanford showdown will capture the nation’s attention for good reason; both teams are 4-0 and ranked in the top 10 (in the only respectable poll). Can Stanford go into Autzen Stadium and unseat the defending champs? The Cardinal appear to be even better than last year’s squad that upset the Ducks in Palo Alto, with a solid ground game and a dynamic passing attack led by maybe the nation’s best QB in Andrew Luck. Defensively Stanford is much improved from 2009’s sieve-like model, allowing around two touchdowns a game, despite playing with most of the some personnel.

Oregon is about as different a team from Stanford as is possible. The Ducks are small and speedy; the Cardinal are big and physical. That’s not to say both teams don’t have some of the other’s characteristics, but the general philosophies of the schools are not at all similar. Both offenses have the edge over the defenses they will be facing, so it will be very interesting to see which style wins out.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The Big 10 did post an impressive record last week, but the opponents were decidedly not. People tend to rag on the SEC for its teams’ timid scheduling, but check out this slate of whipping boys: Austin Peay, Ball State, Bowling Green, Northern Colorado, Central Michigan, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Temple, Akron and Northern Illinois. That’s two FCS squads and eight teams from the exceedingly weak MAC. Justice was served in a couple of cases, though; Minnesota and Purdue certainly didn’t expect to lose to NIU and Toledo, respectively.

But let’s not pretend the SEC’s non-conference games have gotten any more respectable. The league is still a leader in padding schedules with creampuffs, playing an average of eight games a year against FCS foes over the past decade. Playing most or all of the non-conference games at home, or against inferior competition, is a cowardly strategy college teams have long employed to inflate their rankings. Much was made of Georgia’s 2008 game at Arizona State, the first contest outside the South in decades for the Bulldogs. However, Florida has been nearly as bad – the Gators’ last non-conference game outside just their own state was in 1989. That’s ridiculous.

I was surprised by Auburn’s victory over South Carolina last weekend, as it seemed the Gamecocks had finally turned a corner under Steve Spurrier. Alas, it wasn’t to be. However, the question now is how good the Tigers can be with freshman QB Cam Newton. I’ve made my position on young quarterbacks very clear, but there have been a pair of guys this season who have bucked usual trends (Newton and Michigan QB Denard Robinson). Newton has been impressive thus far, but no one in the country has come close to producing like Robinson.

However, Robinson’s play is somewhat less surprising when you consider the coach and scheme he is following. Recall, if you will, that Rich Rodriguez’s West Virginia teams featured a very similar player heading the offense in Pat White. White burst onto the scene in 2005 as a true freshman, running Rodriguez’s zone-read to perfection. He finished his career as one of the greatest quarterbacks in NCAA history. So there is some precedent to Robinson’s play. The scary thing is that Robinson has thus far outperformed White in his first season as a starter. With a little more experience under his belt, Robinson could potentially lead the Wolverines out of their current dark period, saving Rodriguez’s job in the process.

Speaking of offenses and schemes, there’s been an issue that’s been brought up a lot lately that really bothers me. You’ll see this mostly on blogs and internet comments, but the gist of the argument has been used by even national commentators. The idea is as old as the shotgun formation; that shotgun-based offenses are somehow “gimmicky,” “tricky,” or “not real football.” The explosion of spread offenses at the collegiate and high school level has made the shotgun much more visible to the average fan.

Skeptics argue that spreading players all over the field and dropping the QB into shotgun simplifies reads so much that the QB no longer has to make decisions like in a normal formation. This point of view is then justified by making vague claims such as that spread offenses are too finesse-oriented to last long-term and that said offenses “lack football fundamentals.”

To me, this demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of how football works (not unlike the argument I recently got into with an OregonLive poster who claimed only two tight ends could be on the field at the same time, and proceeded to lecture me about pass-catching eligibility rules. My response was a two-minute Google search that yielded pictures of both college and pro teams using such formations. For some reason my adversary continue to argue the point. LOOK AT THEM! THEY’RE EVEN CIRCLED FOR YOU!). But I digress.

Claiming a team lacks fundamentals implies that they don’t block or tackle well, or get lucky by throwing deep every play. I’m not sure how that argument can ever be made considering what spread offenses have done to improve the running attack of so many teams in the past few years. Does anyone think Florida is a finesse team? I think defenders who had to bring down 230-pound Tim Tebow would disagree.

In fact, the spread has brought an unprecedented balance to offenses, forcing defenses to account for both the run and the pass as well as forcing players to tackle one-on-one in space. I would argue that this is in fact the most fundamental football skill there is, yet it has been neglected in recent years as players go for the big hit rather than wrap up properly. The spread has increased emphasis on important skills such as tackling, footwork and good route-running; mistakes in any of these areas can mean a big play for either side.

The only legitimate problem with the shotgun is that it has allowed QB’s to get away with awkward throwing motions and dropbacks more than in traditional offenses. However, this is a coaching flaw, not an inherent issue with the offense itself. Too many spread-loving coaches have failed in their job to teach their signal-callers proper QB mechanics. That’s just laziness. The top three QB’s on the planet – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees – all primarily operate out the shotgun and each has excellent mechanics.

Moreover, it should be an obvious fact that football is always changing. Would the Wishbone-heavy offenses of the 1970s scoff at the West Coast offenses of the 1980s for the latter’s pass-heavy philosophy? Certainly. I see the spread as a natural progression for offenses. It’s reasonable to think that the game will shift in this direction; almost every offense now incorporates some form of the spread anyway. And it’s not as if we’re all switching to the A-11 this season.

Reflections on Week 2

National Overview

Well, that was fun. We’re only two weeks into September and we’ve already been treated to a boatload of upsets, surprises and rewarding intersectional matchups. Who can say they saw Virginia Tech losing to James Madison? Or, for that matter, who expected Oklahoma to hammer Florida State one week after nearly falling to Utah State? It’s the week-to-week wildness that defines college football, and so far 2010 has been as exciting as anyone could have hoped.

It’s been mostly bad news for fans of East Coast teams. The Big East and ACC, already under fire for their mediocre play in the past few seasons, have been embarrassed in the early going this year. Everyone’s Big East favorite, Pittsburgh, lost at Utah in their opener. Defending conference champion Cincinnati fell on the road at Fresno State and West Virginia was extremely fortunate to escape with a win against Marshall.

Of course, the ACC hasn’t fared much better. The handful of title contenders the league boasted at season’s start have all faced disappointing results already. For Florida State, it was the aforementioned whipping courtesy of the Sooners. Miami (FL) played horribly at Ohio State and went down. Defending champion Georgia Tech got shocked by Kansas, who only seven days prior had lost to North Dakota State. North Carolina had a disastrous offseason and lost their opener to LSU. And then there’s Virginia Tech. My oh my.

The silver lining (some) of these squads can focus on is that they played a lot of quality opponents, many of them on the road. In particular, I was struck by the Miami-Ohio State game. Afterwards, analysts were quick to sing to praises of the “dominant” Buckeyes; what game were these commentators watching?

Far from being overwhelming on either side of the ball, Ohio State was in fact fortunate to win by as many points as they did. It was still only a 12-point margin, lest anyone forget, amidst all the talk of a “blowout. I saw a Hurricane offense that moved the ball efficiently (more so than their opponent), only to sloppily give the ball away at every opportunity. Notice I said “give” rather than attribute the turnovers to the OSU defense as some people bizarrely did. Let’s be honest: Ohio State will never again see so many turnovers fall into their lap like they did on Saturday. I don’t want to take up too much space on this one game, but go back and watch the replay on ESPN3 (a fantastic service, by the way) if you can. There’s a tipped interception, a pick when a receiver thought the play was a run instead of a pass, an interception when the same receiver inexplicably let a defender rip the ball away after securing a catch and a goal-line interception by a defensive lineman. That’s more than good defense. It’s the definition of the ball bouncing your way.

To be sure, no one gave the Ohio State offense any credit, because it didn’t deserve any. With all the opportunities they got, it’s ridiculous that the Buckeyes had to attempt so many field goals. Terrelle Pryor was wildly inaccurate and third-down conversions were a big problem. Ohio State surely has the talent to win the national championship this year, but it will take a much more focused and efficient effort to beat a team like Alabama.

Everyone in the Pac-10 breathed a huge sigh of relief when Oregon performed about as expected against Tennessee. I can’t reiterate enough how devastating a loss in Knoxville would have been for the conference. However, this week provides a whole new slate of worthy challenges for the West Coast teams. Cal faces Nevada in a matchup of two explosive offenses, Washington plays Nebraska, Arizona gets Iowa at home in a top-25 collision and Arizona State heads to Wisconsin. A win over either of the Big 10 powers would be a big boost (although, for the record, I don’t think it happens).

The schedule this week is deceptive. There are a lot of under-the-radar inter-conference games that could prove to be quite entertaining. The Cal-Nevada game is one; others include the always nasty Maryland-West Virginia rivalry, Arkansas-Georgia, Georgia Tech-North Carolina and Nebraska-Washington. The most intriguing game I see right now, though, is Baylor-TCU. Don’t scoff – Baylor has improved by leaps and bounds in recent years. With that said, the Horned Frogs are a better team and should win. The wild card is Bears QB Robert Griffin, one the nation’s most deadly dual threats. Oregon State showed that TCU can be scored upon; the question is whether Griffin can make TCU pay. If there’s one player who can single-handedly beat TCU, it’s Griffin. Of course, this is important because TCU is eyeing a spot in the national title game. We’ll have to see if TCU can shut Griffin down.

Pac-10 thoughts

So Oregon got by Tennessee. In hindsight worrying about that contest seems foolish, but the way the game started had to choke the rest of the league with fear. The blueprint to beat Oregon hasn’t changed – Ohio State and Stanford demonstrated last year that you have to get out to an early lead, run the ball straight at the Ducks undersized front and keep yourself out of third-and-long situations. Seems like basic football strategy, but against Oregon’s lighting-fast offense it’s even more crucial. It keeps the Duck’s fleet-footed playmakers off the field and forces their defense to play both the run and the pass, as opposed to when UO has the lead and knows the pass is coming, which plays into their fast defenders’ hands.

It’s obvious that Tennessee watched film while game-planning for the Ducks, because that’s the exact strategy the Volunteers employed. The rest of the Pac-10 will certainly try it out this season, but few teams in the conference are geared to play that kind of football. Oregon State and Washington’s run games are a little more finesse-oriented and USC is in complete disarray. Stanford, however, absolutely can play that kind of game – it’s what the Cardinal are built for – and is shaping up to be the prime challenger to Oregon for conference supremacy.

Speaking of USC… well, what can you say? It’s amazing the difference a few months can have on a team. Stripped of victories, trophies and their brilliant coach, the Trojans look totally lost. A week after the defense surrendered more than 500 yards and 36 points to Hawaii, USC’s offense took a turn disappearing, scoring only 17 points on a bad Virginia team. What happened to the Trojans? I see two possible explanations: either all of USC’s top recruits turned out to be complete busts or Lane Kiffin is a mediocre-to-bad coach who has no chance at motivating a team who knows they aren’t playing for anything this season. Considering the talent still on the Trojans’ roster, I’m inclined to lean toward the latter. Heavily.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Listening to commentators, you’d think Boise State’s bid for title-game spot was dealt a fatal blow by Virginia Tech’s loss to James Madison. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. Remember the only other ranked team to lose to an FCS opponent? That was Michigan in 2007, who also started 0-2 after losses to an FCS powerhouse (Appalachian State) and an elite team (Oregon). What people seem to forget is that the Wolverines ripped off eight straight victories after that poor start and played Ohio State for a shot at the Big 10 championship in the season finale. Then they went out and beat Florida and Heisman winner Tim Tebow in their bowl game to finish 9-4. So let’s not write off the Hokies just yet – and by association, the Broncos. By season’s end, it may yet work out that Tech looks solid again.

Watching the West Virginia-Marshall game, I thought back to when Mountaineers RB Noel Devine, now a senior, arrived on campus. He immediately stood out as an elite playmaker, even with WVU legends Pat White at QB and Steve Slaton (RB) already on the team. At the time, I along with most of the nation just thought of Devine as a promising small, speedy back. Now I believe we can mark Devine’s arrival as a start of an era – the era of the tiny, shifty back in college football. To be sure, smaller ball carriers have always been more effective in college than the NFL, but teams still favored what we call “NFL-ready” players: big, compact runners who could pound the defense 30-plus times a game.

However, looking at the most dominant running backs in the NCAA the past few seasons shows different results. Devine burst onto the scene in 2007, Oregon State’ Jacquizz Rodgers in 2008, Oregon’s LaMichael James and Pitt’s Dion Lewis in 2009. All are considered to be among the top ten at their positions. So why the shift to the little guys?

I see it as the natural progression of the perpetual offense-defense battle. Generally, offenses in football score more than usual for a few seasons with a new scheme before defenses adjust and the status quo is restored. Offenses leap forward, defenses catch up – it’s the accepted way of the football world. The West Coast offense was once unstoppable – that is, until the onset of the zone blitz. Shotgun spread offenses have taken the football world by storm in the past decade and smaller, quicker backs tend to operate better in them than traditional power schemes. But that’s not the only change.

The major problem for defenses is that while the formations in all shotgun spread offenses may look similar, every team runs it a little differently. Nowhere is this more apparent than in college football. Florida and Missouri run a motion-option scheme that mixes the run and the pass; Oregon and West Virginia run almost exclusively the zone-read option; Hawaii and SMU use the old Run and Shoot; Nevada invented the triple-option Pistol attack that UCLA recently adopted, and Arizona and Purdue run a very pass-heavy spread.

Teams realized that their defensive players had to be versatile to effectively defend offenses that spread guys around in such confusing fashion. Their solution, from my perspective, was to just find lots of speed. Fielding a whole defense full of players who can run seems reasonable, considering that the offenses were trying to force defenses to do just that. The miscalculation teams made, though, was that they assumed straight-line speed would be enough. You will constantly hear commentators praising how a defense “flies to the ball” and “has great team speed.” Those things are important, of course. But having speed and using it properly are two different things. USC’s 2008 defense, considered one of the greatest of all time, was incredibly fast. That didn’t stop OSU’s Rodgers from completely shredding it because he was just too small and shifty to tackle.

There are more mighty-mite running backs in college football now than I can ever remember. I think it’s a good thing; it makes games more exciting and it’s a nice change of pace from the traditional plodders of yesteryear. Just remember that it all began with Noel Devine, who made coaches realize they could utilize small backs in previously unprecedented fashion.

I won’t write a top 25 for at least another week, perhaps two. I’d like to get the majority of non-conference games out of the way before making any big judgments. Next week’s post will also probably be quite short, so I won’t have time for any extensive analysis.

Week One Review

News and Notes from Week One

Short blog this week, but that’s really because there was nothing to report from the opening games of the season. The biggest upset we saw was lowly Jacksonville State beating a weak Ole Miss team. There wasn’t a lot to learn from the scores because everything went essentially according to script: the powerhouses did as expected and crushed their respective patsies into submission, though TCU did get a bit of a scare from Oregon State. (I’m not counting Utah beating Pittsburgh because I thought the Panthers were overrated in the first place).

That all changes this Saturday, when the first of two consecutive weekends of great matchups kicks off. This week we get Penn State-Alabama, Florida State-Oklahoma, Georgia-South Carolina and Miami (FL)-Ohio State. These matchups will all have an impact on the national championship picture. However, it’s the Oregon-Tennessee contest that is actually the most important.

Although the other title contenders will also be fighting to avoid an early-season letdown, Oregon is playing for much more. The reputation of the entire Pac-10 is at stake in Knoxville and there’s truly not much the Ducks can gain from this game. If they win in a blowout, everyone will assume the Volunteers are terrible. If they win close, or Tennessee pulls the upset, the Pac-10 will take a beating in the polls not only for the rest of this season but probably next year as well. The effect such a loss could have on the conference is enormous and would only reinforce the SEC belief that the West Coast can’t play quality football. This week is a must-win for Oregon.

In other Pac-10 news, USC looked as awful as a team can in victory by giving up nearly 600 yards to Hawaii, Oregon State bumbled away a chance for a big upset against TCU and UCLA got run over by Kansas State. Both Washington schools couldn’t live up to increased expectations and the teams that did win (Cal, Oregon, ASU and Stanford) did so versus vastly inferior opponents. Only Arizona managed a decent win against a respectable team, knocking off Toledo 41-2. All in all it was not a good week for the conference, which has struggled mightily since the end of the 2009 regular season.

Boise State-Virginia Tech analysis

The best game of the week was fortunately saved for last. A massive national audience tuned in to see Boise State beat Virginia Tech 33-30 Monday night, solidifying the Broncos as a legitimate threat to become the first non-automatic qualifying-league team to play for the BCS championship. Skeptics will say BSU won their toughest game the season by only a field goal; more rational observers will acknowledge that Tech was fortunate to be in the game at all against a clearly superior opponent.

After their initial 17-point burst in the first quarter, Boise State was held in check for the rest of the half and led 20-14 at the break. The Hokies eventually took a 30-26 lead, aided not only by a pair of fumbles but also by a timely special teams penalty and a fortunate fourth-down conversion. By comparison, BSU’s scoring drives were long, consistent and varied, with nary a turnover to help. Overcoming a negative turnover margin to win is the sign of a good football team.

The most obvious indicator of the Broncos’ superiority, though, was a simple eye test. Name one player on the Tech offense who made a single good play, if you can. There was Tyrod Taylor... and no one else. Allegedly great running back Ryan Williams was stuffed to the tune of two yards a carry, no receiver for the Hokies stood out and even Taylor (who played the best game of his career) was repeatedly hit, sacked, or forced to scramble. Nothing Tech tried on offense worked as it was supposed to; their only successes came on broken plays.

The Broncos’ offense, on the other hand, spread the ball to talented receivers like Austin Pettis and Titus Young and split carries between a trio of backs in D.J. Harper, Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin. None of it would have been possible without their triggerman Kellen Moore, who is now 27-1 as a starter.

Boise State played faster and more physical all night and deserved the win. Now, the question is whether the team should play for the national title if they go undefeated, which is highly likely. Oregon State is the only formidable opponent left on the Broncos’ schedule and I just don’t see the Beavers pulling the upset in Boise. It’s a difficult question to answer, but given how much respect the pollsters have awarded BSU it’s tough to argue against it, provided there are not two undefeated teams out of the BCS conferences. If the Broncos do manage to get there and win it all, at the very least it could have a crippling effect on the unfair system we use today to determine a champion. And that’s an idea everyone should be able to get behind.