End of September musings

National Overview

I wish I could have gotten a post out last week, but I just didn’t have the time. I apologize to anyone who was hoping to see an update.

Crazy little weekend we had, no? It looked for about three quarters as if Alabama was going down, but Arkansas let the Crimson Tide hang around for too long and blew their chance to make a huge statement. TCU and Nebraska won, albeit unimpressively; Oregon prevailed in a bizarre, sloppy game, and Texas got absolutely hammered by UCLA.

Of course, sometimes the haves do exactly what they’re supposed to and pummel the have-nots into submission, a la Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa, who won by a combined score of 188-23. Granted, it was against a group of patsies, but that’s a topic for later. A blowout is still a blowout.

The Big 12 avoided total disaster when Oklahoma held off Cincinnati’s upset bid, but that Texas loss stung. UCLA looked horrible in their first two games, and despite their upset last week of Houston no one thought they had a shot against the Longhorns. Texas was clearly overrated and the Big 12 will probably suffer for it. I don’t know if the league can handle Nebraska being the sole national title contender.

Still, the Big East would have gladly swapped places with the Big 12 if it could have. I don’t recall ever seeing a conference start a season as poorly as the Big East this year, and it continued this week as top contenders West Virginia and Pittsburgh fell to out-of-conference foes. At least WVU kept things close against LSU, though; Pitt looked atrocious against Miami (FL). The argument that the Big East is too weak to be a BCS conference seems to finally be true, and with the rise of the Mountain West it will be interesting to see if the league can keep its automatic-qualifying status.

The play of the Pac-10, on the other hand, has been very impressive. After a 2-5 bowl record last year it was assumed that the conference would be down in 2010, but thus far it appears that the overall depth of the league was underrated. It’s not clear yet if there are any truly elite teams, though the middle third of the Pac-10 has proved to be good enough to compete with most of the country. But be warned, fans of Pac-10 schools: this will likely cause every team to finish with multiple losses.

Top 25

As I stated before, I wanted to wait a few weeks before making any kind of ranking because we simply don’t know enough about the teams after week one or two, let alone before the season starts. I compiled these rankings after watching as many different teams as possible, as many times as possible. My list is relatively similar to the regular polls, but the advantage I have is that I can radically change teams’ position based on a single game from here on out, unlike the generally slow-to-react AP and Coaches polls. With that in mind, here is my initial top 25:

1) Alabama

Impressive? Yes. Overwhelmingly so? No. But given that the Tide are the defending champs and return so much talent, perfection is not required. Wins over Penn State and Arkansas are acceptable proof that ‘Bama is still the nation’s number one team.

2) Ohio State

I’m on record as saying the Buckeyes win over Miami (FL) didn’t impress me much, but OSU deserves to be ranked highly for now. They’ve clobbered the cupcakes they played, as great teams do, and will get a chance to really prove themselves in conference play. Tons of home games help too.

3) Boise State

Two wins over teams with top-25 talent is solid, even if those teams are going to spend the next month or so working their way back into the rankings. Nothing about Boise to this point has been anything less than advertised. The problem will come in the next two months, when the Broncos’ strength of schedule starts to really hurt them.

4) Oregon

Three blowouts and one shaky conference opener later, the Ducks are pretty much where people thought they would be before all the offseason issues. But is Oregon a true contender? We won’t have to wait long to find out. Championship caliber teams respond against top competition like the Ducks face Saturday in Stanford.

5) TCU

Before the SMU game I would have had the Horned Frogs fourth, but their sloppiness and defensive problems trumped those of the Ducks (and against an inferior opponent). TCU fans needn’t worry, tough: their team will have ample opportunities to impress voters through the Mountain West season. Going undefeated would even give them a better resume than Boise State.

6) Stanford

The most impressive team in the nation thus far despite some offensive struggles against Notre Dame. The Cardinal are on a roll – a big, physical roll – and come into this week’s showdown against Oregon with a lot of confidence. They absolutely have the ability to pull the upset and take control of the Pac-10 race – can they capitalize on the opportunity?

7) Nebraska

Nebraska managed only a strange 14-point win over South Dakota State, but now faces a very favorable conference schedule. Texas is the only currently ranked team the Cornhuskers will face, and everyone saw what happened to the Longhorns last week. The Big 12 North is also very weak, so there shouldn’t be any potential pitfalls on the way to the conference title game.

8) Oklahoma

The Sooners have survived a pair of very close calls recently, but at 4-0 with wins over Florida State, Air Force and Cincinnati you really can’t fault them too much. I still like this team, but they need to improve their play to become a real contender. We’ll know more after this week’s Red River Shootout (I refuse to use the new, politically correct “Red River Rivalry.” Give me a break).

9) Utah

Does it seem a little high? Possibly, but then again there haven’t been a whole lot of consistently great squads this year. The big win over Pitt in the opener now seems worthless, but the Utes have still comfortably blown out their other opponents. I just don’t think many teams could beat these guys in a one-game scenario.

10) Arizona

Another pleasant surprise of the early season has been the overall excellent play of the Wildcats. Completely dismantling a decent Toledo team was one thing, but the signature win over Iowa could be the gift that keeps on giving for Arizona. With national respect now in their pocket, the Cats just have to avoid a letdown (like they almost suffered last week) until they face the Pac-10’s heavy hitters.

11) Florida

I’ve seen nothing so far to support the idea that the Gators should be ranked in the top 10. Ugly victories over weak non-conference foes and a tenuous quarterback situation have made UF a sell so far this year. A post-Tebow hangover has definitely hit this team, and what’s with that center snap problem?

12) Wisconsin

The Badgers got lucky to beat Arizona State and plowed through the rest of their nonleague slate with only mild difficulty. Their record looks impressive, but we’ve seen this before when Wisconsin gets out to a hot start against bad teams. I can’t take Wisconsin seriously until they beat some good teams, starting this week against Michigan State.

13) Auburn

This is a very tentative ranking. Auburn was fortunate to beat both Mississippi State and Clemson and we still don’t know if the win over South Carolina was a quality one. But it’s hard not to get excited about the Tigers’ 4-0 start. I think at some point they’ll get exposed, but for now I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

14) Arkansas

Oh, talk about missed opportunities. The Razorbacks had the Alabama game won and just let it slip through their fingers. You can’t drop them too far for a four-point loss to the nation’s top team, but it’s clear that the Hogs’ offseason issue – defense – is a legitimate one. They simply couldn’t stop the Tide in crunch time.

15) Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes have been really sloppy so far, and it cost them against Ohio State. The good news is that The U won’t see anyone as talented as the Buckeyes again all season. Great teams beat inferior competition handily, which Miami did against Pitt. I still see the ‘Canes as the most likely team to win the ACC.

16) LSU

LSU has been solid on defense and special teams but just awful offensively. The Tigers have been looking for a QB for three years and still haven’t found one. It’s killed them in conference play the last few seasons and it will again this year. The saving grace is that aforementioned defense, which will keep them in games.

17) USC

The wins have been uneven and have come against weaker opponents, but USC is still undefeated and, well, USC. The talent is there and some people have questioned whether the Trojans are just biding their time as other Pac-10 teams get attention. While this team does appear to have taken a step back, they could still definitely contend for the conference title.

18) South Carolina

The “other” USC missed a golden opportunity to move up in the SEC world last week, but all is not lost. The Gamecocks have been the most consistent squad in their division thus far and could surprise everyone by making the SEC title game. A renewed commitment to the run has been very beneficial for this team.

19) Iowa

I think Iowa has gotten very lucky in several games the past few seasons, but these things always even out, as seen by the Arizona loss two weeks ago. This year the Hawkeyes have been appropriately dominant versus bad teams, but they now face four consecutive ranked Big 10 opponents. It’s not a question of “if” they’ll lose; it’s a question of “when,” because wins over the right teams could still position Iowa for a run at the conference crown.

20) Michigan

Michigan is the kind of team everyone really wants to like: they’re young, talented and exciting. But despite the Wolverines offensive brilliance the truth is that they still haven’t played anybody of note. It’s possible that they could start strong and wilt once they get into conference play, though they should at least play a role in determining who win the Big 10.

21) Nevada

I’ve long admired the Pistol offense coach Chris Ault invented, which curiously has just now begun to make waves in the media. To be honest, though, Nevada is a typical mid-major; good enough to run through a weak conference like the WAC and upset a BCS team or two, but not anywhere near top 10 material. They probably don’t have a chance of unseating Boise State atop the conference, but it’ll be fun to watch them for most of the year.

22) Michigan State

The gritty Spartans have done a great job the past couple of seasons moving up in the Big 10 pecking order. Now they need to take the next step. MSU gets Wisconsin and Michigan in the next two weeks and can legitimize themselves in the eyes of voters with victories. Both games are quite winnable, so it’s up to the team to take advantage of this situation.

23) North Carolina State

The big surprise so far out of the ACC (excluding Virginia Tech – we’re not counting bad surprises) by far has been the Wolfpack. They’re sitting in a great position right now as the last undefeated ACC team and don’t have a single currently ranked opponent on their schedule. If they can avoid a letdown this week against a still-dangerous Tech squad, they could really start to dream big.

24) Penn State

Whether Penn State deserves any credit at all as a top 25 team will be decided this week. The Nittany Lions have lost back-to-back upsets to Iowa and have done nothing so far this season to prove they are for real. I was suspicious of PSU when the year started, and this week could be the final strike against them if they get beat by the Hawkeyes again.

25) Air Force

The Falcons are leading the nation in rushing and are three points from being undefeated and having an upset of Oklahoma on their resume. But the academy will probably take 3-1 at this point given how they hammered BYU. Air Force is going to have some nice warm up games before they face the Mountain West’s twin-headed monster of TCU and Utah, so don’t be surprised if the Falcons pull an upset somewhere down the road.

Pac-10 Notes

Oregon’s clash with Stanford this week will obviously go a long way toward deciding the Pac-10 title. But might Arizona’s last-gasp victory over California last week play a role as well? I’m not suggesting that Cal is going to contend for the conference crown – we’ve all seen this movie before, and it ends with a boatload of failed expectations and a 7-5 record – but the Wildcats could end up quite thankful that they got the W.

Why? Even though Oregon plays both Arizona and Stanford at home, it will still be a tall order for the Ducks to go undefeated in league play. Remember, no team has yet gone undefeated in the Pac-10 since the league expended to a nine-game conference schedule in 2006. If ‘Zona goes 1-1 against the Cardinal and Ducks, their avoidance of a nasty second loss on their resume could end up being huge.

The Oregon-Stanford showdown will capture the nation’s attention for good reason; both teams are 4-0 and ranked in the top 10 (in the only respectable poll). Can Stanford go into Autzen Stadium and unseat the defending champs? The Cardinal appear to be even better than last year’s squad that upset the Ducks in Palo Alto, with a solid ground game and a dynamic passing attack led by maybe the nation’s best QB in Andrew Luck. Defensively Stanford is much improved from 2009’s sieve-like model, allowing around two touchdowns a game, despite playing with most of the some personnel.

Oregon is about as different a team from Stanford as is possible. The Ducks are small and speedy; the Cardinal are big and physical. That’s not to say both teams don’t have some of the other’s characteristics, but the general philosophies of the schools are not at all similar. Both offenses have the edge over the defenses they will be facing, so it will be very interesting to see which style wins out.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The Big 10 did post an impressive record last week, but the opponents were decidedly not. People tend to rag on the SEC for its teams’ timid scheduling, but check out this slate of whipping boys: Austin Peay, Ball State, Bowling Green, Northern Colorado, Central Michigan, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Temple, Akron and Northern Illinois. That’s two FCS squads and eight teams from the exceedingly weak MAC. Justice was served in a couple of cases, though; Minnesota and Purdue certainly didn’t expect to lose to NIU and Toledo, respectively.

But let’s not pretend the SEC’s non-conference games have gotten any more respectable. The league is still a leader in padding schedules with creampuffs, playing an average of eight games a year against FCS foes over the past decade. Playing most or all of the non-conference games at home, or against inferior competition, is a cowardly strategy college teams have long employed to inflate their rankings. Much was made of Georgia’s 2008 game at Arizona State, the first contest outside the South in decades for the Bulldogs. However, Florida has been nearly as bad – the Gators’ last non-conference game outside just their own state was in 1989. That’s ridiculous.

I was surprised by Auburn’s victory over South Carolina last weekend, as it seemed the Gamecocks had finally turned a corner under Steve Spurrier. Alas, it wasn’t to be. However, the question now is how good the Tigers can be with freshman QB Cam Newton. I’ve made my position on young quarterbacks very clear, but there have been a pair of guys this season who have bucked usual trends (Newton and Michigan QB Denard Robinson). Newton has been impressive thus far, but no one in the country has come close to producing like Robinson.

However, Robinson’s play is somewhat less surprising when you consider the coach and scheme he is following. Recall, if you will, that Rich Rodriguez’s West Virginia teams featured a very similar player heading the offense in Pat White. White burst onto the scene in 2005 as a true freshman, running Rodriguez’s zone-read to perfection. He finished his career as one of the greatest quarterbacks in NCAA history. So there is some precedent to Robinson’s play. The scary thing is that Robinson has thus far outperformed White in his first season as a starter. With a little more experience under his belt, Robinson could potentially lead the Wolverines out of their current dark period, saving Rodriguez’s job in the process.

Speaking of offenses and schemes, there’s been an issue that’s been brought up a lot lately that really bothers me. You’ll see this mostly on blogs and internet comments, but the gist of the argument has been used by even national commentators. The idea is as old as the shotgun formation; that shotgun-based offenses are somehow “gimmicky,” “tricky,” or “not real football.” The explosion of spread offenses at the collegiate and high school level has made the shotgun much more visible to the average fan.

Skeptics argue that spreading players all over the field and dropping the QB into shotgun simplifies reads so much that the QB no longer has to make decisions like in a normal formation. This point of view is then justified by making vague claims such as that spread offenses are too finesse-oriented to last long-term and that said offenses “lack football fundamentals.”

To me, this demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of how football works (not unlike the argument I recently got into with an OregonLive poster who claimed only two tight ends could be on the field at the same time, and proceeded to lecture me about pass-catching eligibility rules. My response was a two-minute Google search that yielded pictures of both college and pro teams using such formations. For some reason my adversary continue to argue the point. LOOK AT THEM! THEY’RE EVEN CIRCLED FOR YOU!). But I digress.

Claiming a team lacks fundamentals implies that they don’t block or tackle well, or get lucky by throwing deep every play. I’m not sure how that argument can ever be made considering what spread offenses have done to improve the running attack of so many teams in the past few years. Does anyone think Florida is a finesse team? I think defenders who had to bring down 230-pound Tim Tebow would disagree.

In fact, the spread has brought an unprecedented balance to offenses, forcing defenses to account for both the run and the pass as well as forcing players to tackle one-on-one in space. I would argue that this is in fact the most fundamental football skill there is, yet it has been neglected in recent years as players go for the big hit rather than wrap up properly. The spread has increased emphasis on important skills such as tackling, footwork and good route-running; mistakes in any of these areas can mean a big play for either side.

The only legitimate problem with the shotgun is that it has allowed QB’s to get away with awkward throwing motions and dropbacks more than in traditional offenses. However, this is a coaching flaw, not an inherent issue with the offense itself. Too many spread-loving coaches have failed in their job to teach their signal-callers proper QB mechanics. That’s just laziness. The top three QB’s on the planet – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees – all primarily operate out the shotgun and each has excellent mechanics.

Moreover, it should be an obvious fact that football is always changing. Would the Wishbone-heavy offenses of the 1970s scoff at the West Coast offenses of the 1980s for the latter’s pass-heavy philosophy? Certainly. I see the spread as a natural progression for offenses. It’s reasonable to think that the game will shift in this direction; almost every offense now incorporates some form of the spread anyway. And it’s not as if we’re all switching to the A-11 this season.