Reflections on Week 2

National Overview

Well, that was fun. We’re only two weeks into September and we’ve already been treated to a boatload of upsets, surprises and rewarding intersectional matchups. Who can say they saw Virginia Tech losing to James Madison? Or, for that matter, who expected Oklahoma to hammer Florida State one week after nearly falling to Utah State? It’s the week-to-week wildness that defines college football, and so far 2010 has been as exciting as anyone could have hoped.

It’s been mostly bad news for fans of East Coast teams. The Big East and ACC, already under fire for their mediocre play in the past few seasons, have been embarrassed in the early going this year. Everyone’s Big East favorite, Pittsburgh, lost at Utah in their opener. Defending conference champion Cincinnati fell on the road at Fresno State and West Virginia was extremely fortunate to escape with a win against Marshall.

Of course, the ACC hasn’t fared much better. The handful of title contenders the league boasted at season’s start have all faced disappointing results already. For Florida State, it was the aforementioned whipping courtesy of the Sooners. Miami (FL) played horribly at Ohio State and went down. Defending champion Georgia Tech got shocked by Kansas, who only seven days prior had lost to North Dakota State. North Carolina had a disastrous offseason and lost their opener to LSU. And then there’s Virginia Tech. My oh my.

The silver lining (some) of these squads can focus on is that they played a lot of quality opponents, many of them on the road. In particular, I was struck by the Miami-Ohio State game. Afterwards, analysts were quick to sing to praises of the “dominant” Buckeyes; what game were these commentators watching?

Far from being overwhelming on either side of the ball, Ohio State was in fact fortunate to win by as many points as they did. It was still only a 12-point margin, lest anyone forget, amidst all the talk of a “blowout. I saw a Hurricane offense that moved the ball efficiently (more so than their opponent), only to sloppily give the ball away at every opportunity. Notice I said “give” rather than attribute the turnovers to the OSU defense as some people bizarrely did. Let’s be honest: Ohio State will never again see so many turnovers fall into their lap like they did on Saturday. I don’t want to take up too much space on this one game, but go back and watch the replay on ESPN3 (a fantastic service, by the way) if you can. There’s a tipped interception, a pick when a receiver thought the play was a run instead of a pass, an interception when the same receiver inexplicably let a defender rip the ball away after securing a catch and a goal-line interception by a defensive lineman. That’s more than good defense. It’s the definition of the ball bouncing your way.

To be sure, no one gave the Ohio State offense any credit, because it didn’t deserve any. With all the opportunities they got, it’s ridiculous that the Buckeyes had to attempt so many field goals. Terrelle Pryor was wildly inaccurate and third-down conversions were a big problem. Ohio State surely has the talent to win the national championship this year, but it will take a much more focused and efficient effort to beat a team like Alabama.

Everyone in the Pac-10 breathed a huge sigh of relief when Oregon performed about as expected against Tennessee. I can’t reiterate enough how devastating a loss in Knoxville would have been for the conference. However, this week provides a whole new slate of worthy challenges for the West Coast teams. Cal faces Nevada in a matchup of two explosive offenses, Washington plays Nebraska, Arizona gets Iowa at home in a top-25 collision and Arizona State heads to Wisconsin. A win over either of the Big 10 powers would be a big boost (although, for the record, I don’t think it happens).

The schedule this week is deceptive. There are a lot of under-the-radar inter-conference games that could prove to be quite entertaining. The Cal-Nevada game is one; others include the always nasty Maryland-West Virginia rivalry, Arkansas-Georgia, Georgia Tech-North Carolina and Nebraska-Washington. The most intriguing game I see right now, though, is Baylor-TCU. Don’t scoff – Baylor has improved by leaps and bounds in recent years. With that said, the Horned Frogs are a better team and should win. The wild card is Bears QB Robert Griffin, one the nation’s most deadly dual threats. Oregon State showed that TCU can be scored upon; the question is whether Griffin can make TCU pay. If there’s one player who can single-handedly beat TCU, it’s Griffin. Of course, this is important because TCU is eyeing a spot in the national title game. We’ll have to see if TCU can shut Griffin down.

Pac-10 thoughts

So Oregon got by Tennessee. In hindsight worrying about that contest seems foolish, but the way the game started had to choke the rest of the league with fear. The blueprint to beat Oregon hasn’t changed – Ohio State and Stanford demonstrated last year that you have to get out to an early lead, run the ball straight at the Ducks undersized front and keep yourself out of third-and-long situations. Seems like basic football strategy, but against Oregon’s lighting-fast offense it’s even more crucial. It keeps the Duck’s fleet-footed playmakers off the field and forces their defense to play both the run and the pass, as opposed to when UO has the lead and knows the pass is coming, which plays into their fast defenders’ hands.

It’s obvious that Tennessee watched film while game-planning for the Ducks, because that’s the exact strategy the Volunteers employed. The rest of the Pac-10 will certainly try it out this season, but few teams in the conference are geared to play that kind of football. Oregon State and Washington’s run games are a little more finesse-oriented and USC is in complete disarray. Stanford, however, absolutely can play that kind of game – it’s what the Cardinal are built for – and is shaping up to be the prime challenger to Oregon for conference supremacy.

Speaking of USC… well, what can you say? It’s amazing the difference a few months can have on a team. Stripped of victories, trophies and their brilliant coach, the Trojans look totally lost. A week after the defense surrendered more than 500 yards and 36 points to Hawaii, USC’s offense took a turn disappearing, scoring only 17 points on a bad Virginia team. What happened to the Trojans? I see two possible explanations: either all of USC’s top recruits turned out to be complete busts or Lane Kiffin is a mediocre-to-bad coach who has no chance at motivating a team who knows they aren’t playing for anything this season. Considering the talent still on the Trojans’ roster, I’m inclined to lean toward the latter. Heavily.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Listening to commentators, you’d think Boise State’s bid for title-game spot was dealt a fatal blow by Virginia Tech’s loss to James Madison. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast my friend. Remember the only other ranked team to lose to an FCS opponent? That was Michigan in 2007, who also started 0-2 after losses to an FCS powerhouse (Appalachian State) and an elite team (Oregon). What people seem to forget is that the Wolverines ripped off eight straight victories after that poor start and played Ohio State for a shot at the Big 10 championship in the season finale. Then they went out and beat Florida and Heisman winner Tim Tebow in their bowl game to finish 9-4. So let’s not write off the Hokies just yet – and by association, the Broncos. By season’s end, it may yet work out that Tech looks solid again.

Watching the West Virginia-Marshall game, I thought back to when Mountaineers RB Noel Devine, now a senior, arrived on campus. He immediately stood out as an elite playmaker, even with WVU legends Pat White at QB and Steve Slaton (RB) already on the team. At the time, I along with most of the nation just thought of Devine as a promising small, speedy back. Now I believe we can mark Devine’s arrival as a start of an era – the era of the tiny, shifty back in college football. To be sure, smaller ball carriers have always been more effective in college than the NFL, but teams still favored what we call “NFL-ready” players: big, compact runners who could pound the defense 30-plus times a game.

However, looking at the most dominant running backs in the NCAA the past few seasons shows different results. Devine burst onto the scene in 2007, Oregon State’ Jacquizz Rodgers in 2008, Oregon’s LaMichael James and Pitt’s Dion Lewis in 2009. All are considered to be among the top ten at their positions. So why the shift to the little guys?

I see it as the natural progression of the perpetual offense-defense battle. Generally, offenses in football score more than usual for a few seasons with a new scheme before defenses adjust and the status quo is restored. Offenses leap forward, defenses catch up – it’s the accepted way of the football world. The West Coast offense was once unstoppable – that is, until the onset of the zone blitz. Shotgun spread offenses have taken the football world by storm in the past decade and smaller, quicker backs tend to operate better in them than traditional power schemes. But that’s not the only change.

The major problem for defenses is that while the formations in all shotgun spread offenses may look similar, every team runs it a little differently. Nowhere is this more apparent than in college football. Florida and Missouri run a motion-option scheme that mixes the run and the pass; Oregon and West Virginia run almost exclusively the zone-read option; Hawaii and SMU use the old Run and Shoot; Nevada invented the triple-option Pistol attack that UCLA recently adopted, and Arizona and Purdue run a very pass-heavy spread.

Teams realized that their defensive players had to be versatile to effectively defend offenses that spread guys around in such confusing fashion. Their solution, from my perspective, was to just find lots of speed. Fielding a whole defense full of players who can run seems reasonable, considering that the offenses were trying to force defenses to do just that. The miscalculation teams made, though, was that they assumed straight-line speed would be enough. You will constantly hear commentators praising how a defense “flies to the ball” and “has great team speed.” Those things are important, of course. But having speed and using it properly are two different things. USC’s 2008 defense, considered one of the greatest of all time, was incredibly fast. That didn’t stop OSU’s Rodgers from completely shredding it because he was just too small and shifty to tackle.

There are more mighty-mite running backs in college football now than I can ever remember. I think it’s a good thing; it makes games more exciting and it’s a nice change of pace from the traditional plodders of yesteryear. Just remember that it all began with Noel Devine, who made coaches realize they could utilize small backs in previously unprecedented fashion.

I won’t write a top 25 for at least another week, perhaps two. I’d like to get the majority of non-conference games out of the way before making any big judgments. Next week’s post will also probably be quite short, so I won’t have time for any extensive analysis.