This is it. Did the season really go by so fast? Let
us not speak of my bowl record, which started 8-3 and finished… less
impressively. I did manage to get most of the big games right, but the whole
affair is probably better left untouched. This is why I hate (and love) bowl
season!
It seems incredible that after all the anger,
frustration, fighting and clawing to get to this point, we’re mere moments away
from the first playoff championship game in major college football history.
Don’t feel bad, though; most sports already figured out a playoff is the best
way to finish things. It just took FBS-level football, erm, 145 years.
Yet here we are. It took a lot to kill the BCS, but
the old system really did it to itself. Miami (FL)’s snub in 2000. Oregon’s in
2001. USC’s in 2003. The LSU-Alabama rematchpocalypse of 2011. The BCS had more
cringe-worthy moments than it did triumphant ones, and that’s what ultimately
did it in (well, that and the money. Never forget the money). A true playoff –
albeit a small one – has arrived and it’s here to stay.
So who wins this most celebratory of contests? Both
Oregon and Ohio State arrive in Arlington… not exactly underdogs. Every
preseason prediction had the Ducks and Buckeyes somewhere in the top 10, if not
the top five. These are no Cinderellas. Of course, neither side took a
traditional route to the playoff, either. UO and OSU both felt the agony of
several key personnel losses along the way and suffered brutal, seemingly
title-killing home defeats. However, the teams rebounded impressively,
regrouped and managed to find their way to this game.
First and foremost, Ohio State is not the same team
everyone saw getting manhandled by Virginia Tech in Week 2. The Buckeyes have
adjusted to the weaknesses the Hokies exposed and gotten tremendous production
out of their ground game, particularly on the inside zone runs for which Oregon
is famous. That’s not surprising, given Urban Meyer’s background as a spread
architect. The Buckeyes have evolved in the passing game as well, though. J.T.
Barrett was making his second career start in place of the injured Braxton
Miller against VT and turned in by far his worst performance. The rest of the
season he was superb, putting up Heisman-like numbers before breaking his ankle
in the finale against Michigan.
And here’s the crucial element of this game. Cardale
Jones, the former third-stringer, is now making his third straight start in
relief of Barrett. Jones is a tremendously physically talented, former
five-star prospect, but he’s still green. Inexperienced quarterbacks tend to be
a liability, but to this point Jones has been excellent. Can he continue his streak
versus Oregon? Forcing the Ducks to play both the run and pass is crucial. More
on this momentarily.
With apologies to the defenses, which are both good
and boast quality players, this matchup will be decided by offense. That’s why
I’m forgoing a detailed breakdown of either defensive unit in lieu of more
relevant offensive analysis. Rest assured that where it is important, defense
will be mentioned. On to Oregon!
Little needs to be said about the Ducks’ attack.
Oregon has been doing this for several years now: a quick, mobile offensive
line, speedy playmakers on the outside and a QB to act as point man for the
whole operation. Rinse and repeat. But the 2014 UO squad has made some key
changes to the formula that have ultimately proved highly beneficial, such as a
larger, more physical offensive line, a power tailback to go with, and of
course the nation’s best QB in Marcus Mariota. Mariota has been fantastic, but
credit must go to the line as well; without the added flexibility from the
power run game, the Ducks would likely not be here.
A key factor, unfortunately, is injuries. Ohio State
has had to weather adversity at the most important position, but ultimately the
Buckeyes’ losses pale in comparison to Oregon’s. The Ducks lost four offensive
tackles at different points throughout the year, their best tight end and two
most talented receivers and their best cover corner. That’s a brutal storm of
injuries and it’s a credit to UO that they’ve managed to keep plugging along in
spite of all that. Now comes the ultimate test.
Ohio State has a more talented roster, top to
bottom, than Oregon. That’s a fact. However, the teams match up pretty evenly.
Both front sevens can clog running lanes well and force offenses to the air,
which you can be assured they will do. That leaves the passing games to do some
of the heavy lifting, which is where Oregon’s trump card lies. Mariota is the
best passer in the country and one of the best in college football history.
Jones, for all his talent, is still only making his third start.
It’s extremely impressive what Jones has managed to
do against Wisconsin and Alabama. However, it’s hard to argue that the Badgers
were vastly outmatched in the Big Ten Championship, which took all the pressure
off Jones. And as good as he was versus ‘Bama, it’s one thing to play well
coming off a three-week prep period. It’s another to turn around and do it a
week later, especially against a team that tries to make you play catch-up.
This is why Oregon’s run defense is the most
critical part of this football game. If OSU can smash the Ducks inside – like
they often did against the Crimson Tide – Jones will have time to operate, get
comfortable and make good reads. Oregon this season has played a great deal of
soft shell coverage, perfect for dealing with a deep-ball threat like the
Buckeyes’ Devin Smith. However, that only works if the opposing ground game
isn’t tearing things up for six yards a carry. If UO can force Jones to air a
reasonable amount of the time, they have to like their chances. Meanwhile, OSU
can and will try the same thing, but Marcus Mariota is a whole different animal
than Blake Sims.
After the 2010 season I didn’t believe Oregon was as
good as Auburn. I knew the Tigers had the best offensive (Cam Newton) and
defensive (Nick Fairley) players in the game. I picked Oregon anyway. This
time, I think UO is the better team. The Ducks have played both better offenses
and defenses this season than Ohio State. OSU has been outstanding since that
early loss, but hasn’t faced an offense of this caliber... and when all else
fails, there’s still Mariota. I’ll take Oregon to win the program’s first
national championship.
