Pac-10/Season Review

Pac-10 Review

It was a tale of multiple seasons in the Pac-10. In the preseason, conventional wisdom held that Oregon, despite losing Jeremiah Masoli, would be the team to beat. The best challengers would be a neutered-but-still-dangerous USC, unofficial 2009 runner-up Arizona (the Wildcats tied with Oregon State and Stanford), blue-collar Stanford, and always plucky OSU.

For the first month of the season, that was exactly what we saw. Oregon rolled to several big victories, Stanford hammered their first four opponents, and Arizona knocked off Iowa en route to a top 10 ranking. USC played unevenly but went 4-0, while Oregon State garnered national respect for their tough play despite going 1-2 against a difficult schedule.

When October rolled around, though, everyone’s expectations got turned upside down. The Trojans lost back-to-back games to Washington and Stanford, previously left-for-dead Cal hammered a red-hot UCLA team that had just upset Houston and Texas, and Oregon State rebounded to improve to 3-2 after upsetting Arizona. It appeared the Beavers were on their way back up, while Stanford had some legitimate defensive concerns after Oregon dropped 50 on the Cardinal. Arizona seemed down but not out, and the impressive play of backup QB Matt Scott looked like proof that the Wildcats were becoming a Pac-10 power.

But just two weeks into the month, everything got flipped around again. Cal continued a bizarre pattern of either blowing someone out or getting blown out themselves in successive weeks. USC continued to struggle, culminating in their big loss to Oregon. Stanford only got stronger, while OSU dropped three of four to lower-level league opponents, ending in a shocking blowout loss at home to everyone’s favorite whipping boy, Washington State.

Just when it seemed that the conference was Oregon and Stanford and the little eight, the Ducks and Cardinal barely survived nightmare road games on the same night at Cal and ASU, respectively. After starting 7-1, Arizona got their doors blown off by three straight opponents, and then USC lost yet another head-scratcher on the road at OSU before falling in embarrassing fashion at home to rival Notre Dame.

When the smoke cleared, we were left with unexpected results. Oregon managed to become the first and only Pac-10 team to ever escape unscathed from a nine-game conference schedule despite playing their worst ball of the season in November, Stanford finished 11-1 after clobbering their final two challengers, and the league was left with just four bowl-eligible teams. Oregon State and Cal finished 5-7, ASU was denied a bowl waiver at 6-6 (thanks to beating two FCS teams), and USC was forced to sit out the postseason because of NCAA sanctions. It was a very strange year.

We’ll have to wait for the bowl results before it will be possible to draw real conclusions from the 2010 season, but it’s already clear that the conference is in flux, even before Colorado and Utah join in the offseason. Even though Oregon appears poised to stay on top of the league, there are still no guarantees (just look at USC’s toppled dynasty). I doubt that Stanford can consistently be an elite team because of the school’s academic requirements and the likelihood that they’ll be losing both QB Andrew Luck and coach Jim Harbaugh sooner rather than later. Oregon State is going to rebound from their nightmare year, but it’s apparent that the Beavers need to make some changes to remain near the top.

USC has been hobbled, and all accounts say the worst is yet to come. With additional scholarship losses looming and the shine officially off the Trojans’ star, it’ll be hard for SC to convince recruits to come play for them in the next few seasons. Arizona took a major step backwards in 2010, though I think they’ll benefit from their new division alignment.

Cal is the team in biggest need of change. The Golden Bears haven’t improved since 2006, and nothing that happened this year indicated anything but more of the same. A coaching change – perhaps even a head coaching change – is a must. UCLA is in the same boat, though Rick Neuheisel isn’t on quite as hot a seat as Jeff Tedford.

Washington improved this year, but they’ll need to do so again in 2011 if they want to make it to consecutive bowls, because they got lucky to finish 6-6. I thought Arizona State made the biggest strides this year (even more so than Stanford), and the Sun Devils should have been about 8-4 and in a bowl. Next year they could be the team to beat in the South Division if they play more consistently. And finally, there’s WSU, who significantly improved in year three under Paul Wulff and found a star in QB Jeff Tuel. The Cougars’ Dark Age appears to be ending.

I thought it would be interesting (and hopefully not too embarrassing) to go back and compare the year’s results to my preseason predictions. First, the Pac-10:

Pac-10: Projected winner – Oregon

              Actual winner – Oregon

I had OSU three spots too high (second) and ASU four spots too low (ninth), but otherwise, not too shabby. I had Oregon first, then Stanford, Washington and USC after the Beavers, which is the order the top of the conference finished. I flip-flopped Cal and Arizona in the middle of the league, then had UCLA eight (the Bruins finished ninth) and of course WSU last. On to my other predictions.

ACC:   Projected winner – Miami (FL).

            Actual winner – Virginia Tech

Ouch. Well, I did say that the Coastal Division was way better than the Atlantic, which was true, but I severely underestimated the overall mediocrity of this league and whiffed badly on the Hurricanes. I did think Tech was pretty good, but I thought this would be the year Miami finally broke through and beat their old rival. Anyone who watched the Canes play this season can say that idea is laughable.

Big East: Projected winner – Pittsburgh

                Actual winner – Connecticut

Pitt was one of the season’s biggest flops, while UConn pretty much came out of nowhere. I thought West Virginia was the second-best team and the Mountaineers should have won the conference, but as with the ACC I really didn’t know how bad the quality of play was going to be here.

Big 10: Projected winner – Ohio State

            Actual winner – Wisconsin/Ohio State/Michigan State

Hey, I was 1/3 right! OSU went 11-1, so I predicted their record correctly. The problem was that the Buckeyes lone loss came to Wisconsin, whose lone loss was to Michigan State, whose lone loss came to… Iowa? Hey, why isn’t MSU the conference champion? What’s going on here? Oh, right, the tiebreaker rules. Just another reason to hate the BCS.

Big 12: Projected winner – Oklahoma

            Actual Winner – Oklahoma

Wow. I was 100 percent right about this one. Let’s see… “Texas will take a step back.” Check. “Nebraska won’t be as good as advertised.” Check. “The Sooners rebound from their injury-plagued 2009 season and return to form.” Check. All right.

Conference USA:   Projected winner – Houston

                               Actual winner – Central Florida

I feel cheated on this one. The Cougars were never the same after QB Case Keenum went down against UCLA in the third game. I probably should have considered the Knights because they’ve been good recently, but forgot about them completely in my emphatic endorsement of Houston.

Mountain West:   Projected winner – TCU

                            Actual winner – TCU

This was a no-brainer. I can’t really take a whole lot of credit for this one.

MAC:  Projected winner – Temple

            Actual winner – Miami (OH)

Temple was on track to win the West before losing their last two, including the division-deciding finale to Miami. My choice for runner-up, Northern Illinois, won the East but lost to the Redhawks in the conference final.

SEC:    Projected winner – Alabama

             Actual winner – Auburn

Pretty much everyone thought the Crimson Tide were shoo-ins, so I don’t feel too bad about this. Nobody anticipated the impact Cam Newton would have either. ‘Bama was still quite good, but the preseason injury to Mark Ingram kind of foretold what kind of adversity they were going to face this year.

Sun Belt: Projected winner – Middle Tennessee

                Actual winner – Florida International

This one came out of left field. FIU has been terrible since joining the FBS, and quite frankly, they still are. But they got the most important wins – including over co-champ Troy – despite falling to Middle Tennessee. I’ll be honest: the Sun Belt is really bad, so it’s pretty tough to pick.

WAC: Projected winner – Boise State

            Actual winner – Nevada/Boise State/Hawaii

I just didn’t think Nevada would ever knock off Boise in the WAC pecking order. It’s a testament to the hard work the Wolf Pack put in the past year that they were in position to upset the Broncos. Of course, Boise State was still quite good, but they lost one league game that really mattered.

I suppose the only conference I was wildly off about was the ACC, where my pick of Miami (FL) now looks really bad. But otherwise, no team I chose finished lower than third in their conference. I’ve live with that result.

The bowl season has just begun, so prepare yourself. There’s a long way to go before that magical game on January 10^th. Just follow my bowl preview to find out what games you should be watching.

The bowl season has just begun, so prepare yourself. There’s a long way to go before that magical game on January 10^th. Just follow my bowl preview to find out what games you should be watching.

Bowl Bash 2010

It’s excruciating going more than a week without college football, but fortunately the sport’s “second season” generally packs a ton of excitement into the succeeding weeks. True, there are far too many mediocre teams in bowls, but look at the bright side – maybe we’ll see some close matchups! I know I’m ready for a clean slate after last year’s disastrous pick-a-thon, so I’ll have another go at choosing the winners this time around.

One thing I learned – painfully – during the 2009 bowls was that regular season performance often has little to do with postseason success. I know, it seems as if I should have known that a long time ago with all the football I watch, but last year was the first time it was really drilled into my head. I shan’t forget that lesson.

Bowls are hard to predict because they mean something different to every team. On one hand, you have schools like Baylor, who are delighted to even get to a bowl game. On the other, you have teams like Alabama, who stumbled their way to an underachieving record and probably believe they should be playing in a better game. Motivation, which is rarely lacking in college football’s regular season, is often no where to be found in bowls.

Look at Oregon State in last year’s Vegas Bowl: four points from beating Oregon and playing in the Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champs, the Beavers tumbled all the way to the conference’s fifth bowl slot after losing the Civil War and got matched up with BYU. Were the Beavers better than the Cougars? Their regular season play said yes, but the beating the lethargic squad took in Vegas said otherwise.

It’s also sometimes the case that a disrespected team will rise to the occasion and play only for pride. Was Utah really a better team than Alabama in 2008? I doubt it. But the Utes, furious at the nation’s ho-hum response to their undefeated year, smacked the Crimson Tide in the mouth in the Sugar Bowl.

Coaching changes, player/academic scandals, and injuries can all also play a part in determining if a team shows up ready to play or to just take a vacation. There are innumerable contributing factors in bowls. So don’t be surprised if my picks are wrong again. I’m not here to win you bets, I’m just giving the most reasoned analysis I can based on what I’ve seen this year.

I won’t comment on the bowl names this year, because everyone already knows how ridiculous they are. I will divide the games up in the same way I did last year, by ranking them in terms of how watchable they should be to the average fan. Here we go (All times Pacific):

The Don’t Bothers

New Mexico Bowl

BYU vs. UTEP

Dec. 18, 11:00 a.m.

BYU disappointed this season and there’s nothing special about UTEP. It’s a matchup of fun acronyms but mediocre, 6-6 teams. Both the Cougars and Miners lost to all the decent teams on their respective schedules. BYU was better down the stretch, rebounding from a 1-4 start to earn bowl eligibility, so I’ll take the Cougars.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Ohio vs. Troy

Dec. 18, 6:00 p.m.

Neither of these teams are awful, but there’s just nothing intriguing about this game. I saw Ohio play once, when they upset Temple in the middle of their seven-game win streak that should have won them the MAC East. Instead, the Bobcats dropped their final game to Kent State and had to watch as Miami (OH) – a team they beat – won the conference title. The Trojans have the superior offense, particularly passing the ball, so I’m picking Troy.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl

Southern Miss vs. Louisville

Dec. 21, 5:00 p.m.

While I applaud Louisville for getting to bowl eligibility, the fact is that the Cardinals went 6-6 despite playing in the Big East. Southern Miss’ defense isn’t great, but they put up points in bunches and only got shut down once all season. The Golden Eagles will win.

Little Caesars Bowl

Florida International vs. Toledo

Dec. 26, 5:30 p.m.

Hooray! FIU made it to their first bowl game and won their first-ever FBS conference title! Now back to reality, where the Panthers face a pretty solid Rockets team that only lost one game in MAC play. Unless FIU is extremely fired up for this game, I don’t see Toledo losing.

Military Bowl

East Carolina vs. Maryland

Dec. 29, 11:30 a.m.

Maryland was a very mediocre team from the very mediocre ACC. ECU has a great offense but took a step down after winning back-to-back Conference USA titles. The x-factor here is the Terrapins’ coaching situation; offense coordinator James Franklin has already left to become the new coach at Vanderbilt, while head coach Ralph Friedgen is reportedly being forced into retirement. That kind of thing before a bowl never bodes well so ECU is the pick.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Kansas State vs. Syracuse

Dec. 30, 12:20 p.m.

College football in New York has a pretty sordid history, and this game doesn’t look to change that much. K-State is decent but faltered late in the season, while ‘Cuse was improved from last year but is still just average. This is just an ugly matchup of so-so teams. I’ll go with the Wildcats because I like RB Daniel Thomas.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

North Carolina vs. Tennessee

Dec. 30, 3:40 p.m.

A team racked by scandal and underachievement (UNC) faces off against a why-are-we-even-in-a-bowl Tennessee squad. North Carolina should have absolutely no trouble in this one, but this entire year has been such a disappointment for the Tar Heels it’s tough to know what to expect out of them.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Georgia vs. Central Florida

Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.

Georgia was one of the biggest flops in the country in 2010. I like UCF, but their 10-3 record is a little misleading. I expect a hard-fought game now that the Bulldogs have finally gotten a little momentum, but I’m still going to go with the Knights.

Outback Bowl

Florida vs. Penn State

Jan. 1, 10:00 a.m.

There’s a couple of proud names here and very little substance. Neither team deserves to be in the postseason, let alone playing on New Year’s Day. Will the Gators respond now the Urban Meyer has retired (again), or will the team be flat and undisciplined heading into an offseason of change? That will decide this game. Plus I don’t think Penn State is very good at all. Florida wins.

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Middle Tennessee vs. Miami (OH)

Jan. 6, 5:00 p.m.

Bad enough that these two teams made it into a bowl. The fact that they’re playing on January 6^th is the ultimate slap in the face to college football fans. Really? We wait nine days after the Rose Bowl for the title game, and this is what we get? Miami finished the season on a tear and won the MAC title. The Redhawks should have no trouble with the Blue Raiders.

BBVA Compass Bowl

Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky

Jan. 8, 9:00 a.m.

Pittsburgh was another one of the biggest disappointments this season along with Georgia and North Carolina. Once considered a title contender, the Panthers fell off the map completely with an atrocious 7-5 year. Kentucky managed to win two conference games, but thanks to the beloved SEC practice of scheduling four nonconference patsies the Wildcats got to a bowl. Common sense says to take Pitt, but I just can’t trust anyone from the Big East. I say Kentucky wins it.

The Eh, Maybes

uDrove Humanitarian Bowl

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Dec. 18, 2:30 p.m.

I’ll admit that I have a soft spot for both these schools, hence my decision to move them up from the “unwatchable” category. But to be fair, NIU has had a nice year with 10 wins, and three of Fresno’s four losses are to Nevada, Hawaii and Boise State. Besides, the Bulldogs are usually worth watching in any game. I’ll take Fresno State.

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Hawaii vs. Tulsa

Dec. 24, 5:00 p.m.

Expect points. Lots of ‘em. Both teams love to air it out, and neither has the defense to stop the other. This nice little pre-holiday offering should serve as prime entertainment, and hey, it’s in Hawaii. You get to imagine you’re soaking in 70-plus degree weather for a couple of hours. I was impressed with the Warriors this year, and they were the only team to beat Nevada. Hawaii should win.

Champs Sports Bowl

West Virginia vs. North Carolina State

Dec. 28, 3:30 p.m.

This should be a better game than it is, but the Wolfpack will undoubtedly have a letdown after blowing a shot at their first-ever ACC championship appearance and the Mountaineers haven’t been as sharp as usual this year. NCSU QB Russell Wilson is worth seeing, though. Because of him, I’ll go with the Wolfpack.

Insight Bowl

Missouri vs. Iowa

Dec. 28, 7:00 p.m.

Both of these squads started with a lot of expectations and came up well short. While the names of the teams would seemingly indicate that a good game is likely, there’s really not a lot to get excited about here. What do you want to see most – a pair of overrated QB’s, a couple of above-average-but-not-special defenses, or couple of good-guy coaches who can’t win the big game? You see my point. Mizzou wins.

Texas Bowl

Illinois vs. Baylor

Dec.29, 3:00 p.m.

The reason this game is moderately viewable is mostly due to Baylor playing in their first bowl game since 1994, though Bears QB Robert Griffin is also a treat. Illinois was terrible for most of the season and didn’t really beat anyone worthwhile. Baylor faltered against the top teams they played, but I think they’re much better and will win.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Army vs. SMU

Dec. 30, 9:00 a.m.

Let’s face it, although it’s nice that all the service academies got to bowls, Army is not very good. SMU is decent, but the real reason to watch this game is the Mustangs’ offense. If you want to see the real Run and Shoot, only Hawaii runs it as effectively, and head coach June Jones (formerly at Hawaii) is as big an innovator as exists in college football. It’s just a cool philosophy to see. I’ll take SMU.

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

Nebraska vs. Washington

Dec. 30, 7:00 p.m.

Man. The Holiday Bowl wound up with their nightmare matchup in this one, getting two squads that had already faced each other in the regular season. Even worse, the Cornhuskers blew out the Huskies in the first meeting. What’s changed? Not much. I expect UW QB Jake Locker to play better than his career-worst 4-20 performance back in September, but it would still take an inspired performance for Washington to win this game.

Meineke Car Care Bowl

South Florida vs. Clemson

Dec. 31, 9:00 a.m.

In years past this would have been a very intriguing contest. Unfortunately, neither of these teams played particularly inspiring ball in 2010. It’s hard to care a lot about this game, but there is the X-factor that is USF’s tendency to play to the level of their competition. Seven of the Bulls’ last eight games were decided by eight points or fewer. So there’s a chance this will be a close game. However, when in doubt, go against the Big East. I like Clemson.

TicketCity Bowl

Northwestern vs. Texas Tech

Jan. 1, 9:00 a.m.

If only Wildcats QB Dan Persa wasn’t out. This game would be eminently more watchable. You still get to see a couple of good spread teams go at it, but it’s just not quite the same. There’s still potential for a shootout, though, so that’s a plus. As some defenses in the past have had success slowing the Red Raiders in their bowl games, I’m going with Northwestern.

Progressive Gator Bowl

Mississippi State vs. Michigan

Jan. 1, 10:30 a.m.

Of course, the Bulldogs and Wolverines have no business playing on New Year’s, but that’s par for the course nowadays, it seems. MSU was good all year, but got hammered by every great team they played (except, curiously, Auburn). Michigan’s magnificent offense was hamstrung by their atrocious defense, though I still think Denard Robinson makes enough plays in this game to take it.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Nevada vs. Boston College

Jan. 9, 6:00 p.m.

Nevada deserved better. Alas, they’ll have to settle for a date with another nondescript squad from the equally nondescript ACC. There should be no way the Eagles beat the Wolf Pack, but you never know. Perhaps the time off will give their defense some insight into how to slow down the vaunted Pistol.

The Fanhood Testers

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Navy vs. San Diego State

Dec. 23, 5:00 p.m.

You get the always-enjoyable triple-option from Navy and the great team no one’s talking about in SDSU. The Aztecs’ largest loss was by five courtesy of TCU, and SDSU gave the Horned Frogs all they could handle. I like Navy a lot, but the best team they beat was probably Notre Dame. I think San Diego State comes through in this game, unless Midshipmen QB Ricky Dobbs goes off.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Air Force vs. Georgia Tech

Dec. 27, 2:00 p.m.

Do my eyes deceive me? Not one, but two option offenses in the same game? Football purists, unite! This is a great old-school matchup featuring the two best rushing offenses in the country. Tech fell apart after winning the ACC last year and stumbled at the end of this season, losing four of their last five. Air Force, on the other hand, only lost to good teams: Oklahoma, San Diego State, TCU and Utah. And they only got blown out once, by TCU. I’ll go with the Falcons.

Valero Alamo Bowl

Oklahoma State vs. Arizona

Dec. 29, 6:15 p.m.

Oklahoma State was by far the more consistent and explosive team this season, but Arizona is capable of hanging with the Cowboys if the Wildcats can get back to playing like they did early in the year. ‘Zona was less than the sum of their parts much of the year and should have had a better record. OSU ripped off huge offensive totals but their defense is horrible. They’ll win, but in a shootout.

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Notre Dame vs. Miami (FL)

Dec. 31, 11:00 a.m.

I’ll admit that this contest is made more watchable by the fact that it’s Notre Dame-Miami. It’s just the Sun Bowl, but come on. These are two of the most storied programs of all time, fighting on their way back up. Neither will ever be what they were, but that’s really irrelevant. I like Notre Dame because the Hurricanes’ coaching change will likely be on their minds.

Chick-fil-A Bowl

South Carolina vs. Florida State

Dec. 31, 4:30 p.m.

A couple of really solid squads. The Gamecocks might have gotten a little overrated thanks to their somewhat miraculous win over Alabama, and it’ll be interesting to see if they can dominate a supposedly inferior ACC team. I think FSU is better, but I’m only taking them if ‘Noles QB Christian Ponder plays.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Connecticut vs. Oklahoma

Jan. 1, 5:30 p.m.

Could this be the worst BCS bowl ever? Worse than Utah-Pitt 2005? Worse than… well, that’s the worst one I can remember. There’s a chance. UConn, bless their plucky little hearts, is totally outclassed against this level of competition. This is a team that Michigan handled with ease, people. It would take a total meltdown from the Sooners for the Huskies to have a shot.

AT&T Cotton Bowl

LSU vs. Texas A&M

Jan. 7, 5:00 p.m.

It’s not quite at the level of a BCS bowl, but the Cotton Bowl has always had a nice flavor to it. This year, we once again get to see a fine matchup of power teams that should give us a good game. LSU’ luck ran out against rival Arkansas late in the year, while A&M ripped off six straight wins and is one of the nation’s hottest teams. I’ll go with the Aggies.

The Must-Sees

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Utah vs. Boise State

Dec. 22, 5:00 p.m.

This one is big. Utah needs to be able to shut up the doubters (like me) who said they rode a weak schedule to a high ranking. Boise wants to prove that the Nevada game was a total fluke. Someone’s going home unhappy. Who will it be? I think Utah will play well, but the Broncos should impose their will.

Capital One Bowl

Alabama vs. Michigan State

Jan. 1, 10:00 a.m.

Finally! A non-BCS matchup of two good BCS-conference power teams. The Spartans had a magical year, but it’s fair to wonder if they just caught Wisconsin at the right time. They weren’t really battle-tested and got hammered by Iowa. Alabama, on the other hand, was challenged early and often and struggled with injuries and inconsistency. With a month-ish off, I think they’ll handle MSU.

Rose Bowl

Wisconsin vs. TCU

Jan. 1, 2:00 p.m.

Ooh, this is a good one. The nation’s best scoring defense versus arguably the nation’s top offense. Who will prevail in this battle of the titans? Although I’ve been supportive of TCU all year, I’m not sure that they can win this game. The Badgers have just been impossibly good the last several games. If they lose their rhythm in the time off, maybe the Horned Frogs have a shot at containing them.

Discover Orange Bowl

Stanford vs. Virginia Tech

Jan. 3, 5:30 p.m.

This is a matchup of another pair of red-hot teams. Stanford was only beaten by Oregon, while Tech reeled off 11 straight in their drive for the ACC championship. These squads both have blue-collar, pro-style mentalities, so it’ll be great fun to watch them try to pound the ball at each other. I think the Cardinal have the edge on the offensive line and at QB, so I’m going with Stanford.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Ohio State vs. Arkansas

Jan. 4, 5:30 p.m.

Ohio State gets another chance against the SEC, eh? The Buckeyes’ struggles against teams from the South have been well-documented, so all the pressure is on Jim Tressel’s guys. Arkansas is just happy to be there. OSU has been so bad in these games it’s hard to know what to expect of them. Will Arkansas be able to scheme in the next weeks to stop the Buckeye offense? I think Razorbacks QB Ryan Mallet is the best player in this game, which is why I’m taking Arkansas.

Tostitos BCS National Championship Game

Oregon vs. Auburn

Jan. 10, 5:30 p.m.

Yes, it’s not a dream, Duck fans. As this game approaches I’ll analyze it a bit more, but for now I’ll just recap what we all already know. Both teams have fantastic offenses and defenses that have at least one weakness. Both teams love to play fast and spread the ball around. Both teams have some elite playmakers on both sides. In short, it’s a classic championship-style bout. Whoever doesn’t turn the ball over and plays smart will probably win. I’ll cover the game more in the coming weeks.

My Pac-10 season review is also coming in the next few days.

Season finale

National Overview

The end of the regular season. Another year of college football has come and gone. As the bowls really are a “second season,” it’s realistic to look upon this as the end, which it is for 50 teams already and probably should be for another 20. Really, 35 bowl games are ridiculous. I’ll talk about this next week.

Auburn and Oregon, you might have heard, authoritatively clinched the two spots in the national championship game, while TCU was left out in the cold. The Horned Frogs can’t really complain – their best win was over Utah – but it still stinks that they don’t get a chance at real glory in a you-know-what. You know, like a tournament, where the winners advance and play again the next week. Whatever that’s called.

I have to say, though, with the exception of the Big East getting a team into the BCS, I’m pretty happy with the pairings we got in the top bowls this season. Ohio State-Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl is great, Stanford-Virginia Tech in the Orange is great, and TCU-Wisconsin in Pasadena is great. Auburn-Oregon has a lot of potential, too, so the BCS got lucky this year.

There’s still that ugly Fiesta Bowl, though. Hey, you know who’d have been better than unranked, 8-4 Connecticut? Freakin’ ANYBODY! How about Michigan State, who lost once? Well, OK, only two teams from each conference. Well, how about Oklahoma State? Or Missouri? Or maybe Boise State, who everyone knows is really good despite a close loss to Nevada? Hey, the Wolf Pack went 12-1. The rule that all the BCS conference champs have to be invited is ludicrous if they don’t deserve to go.

But enough about the BCS. That subject is tired and can be addressed at some other point. For now let’s move on to my final top 25 until the New Year.

Top 25

I made some last-minute change to my rankings after the final week of action. This list is now the basis for how we’ll look at the whole year of results, so preseason rankings and rankings at the time a game was played no longer have any relevance. This is useful for determining, in retrospect, just how good a team is.

For example, South Carolina beat three ranked teams, right? ESPN has the Gamecocks with wins over number one Alabama, number 22 Georgia and number 22 Florida. However, we all know now that Florida and Georgia are no good and that Alabama wasn’t what we thought they were. So was South Carolina really that good? Postseason regular are helpful like that (although I still give precedence to head-to-head results when applicable).

1) Auburn

Oregon hasn’t played well of late, it’s as simple as that. I put almost no stock into the Tigers’ SEC title game beatdown of South Carolina – playing a team twice shouldn’t earn you squat – but gave them credit for playing better at the end of the year than the Ducks.

2) Oregon

Oregon was awful against Cal, decent against Arizona, and sloppy versus OSU. Compare that to their first nine games, when they rolled to more than 55 points a game and gave up fewer than 18. Something’s been up with the Ducks in November, and they’ll have to recapture their early-season spark if they want to win the title.

3) TCU

The Horned Frogs didn’t get the miracle they needed, but the Granddaddy of Them All sure isn’t a bad consolation prize. Interestingly, with the school’s move to the Big East, they decided to keep their mouths shut about BCS inequity. As they should.

4) Stanford

The fact that Stanford doesn’t get to play in the Rose Bowl is unfortunate, but it’s hard to complain about an Orange Bowl berth. Thank goodness the coaches didn’t see fit to jump Wisconsin over the Cardinal in the final rankings.

5) Wisconsin

It’ll be a marvelous Rose Bowl matchup, featuring the Badgers’ insanely explosive offense and the Horned Frogs’ nation-leading defense. Despite my reservations about Wisconsin’s “Big 10 championship,” I have to admit it’s cool to see them back in Pasadena. It’s been too long.

6) Ohio State

Ohio State was mighty quiet during all the BCS hubbub the past few weeks. That was an excellent move, because it prevented anyone from taking notice of their schedule and asking the simple question, “Who have you guys beaten?” The answer: no one in the top 25. But the Buckeyes are still pretty good, and Jim Tressel will have them ready for Arkansas.

7) Boise State

I went through my rankings again and decided to move Boise up ahead of Arkansas. This obviously isn’t based on schedule, because the Razorbacks played a much tougher one. It has more to do with the fact that I think the Broncos would wipe out the boys from Fayetteville if they actually met on the field.

8) Arkansas

It’s official: Arkansas is going to their first BCS bowl. Congratulations are in order. Although few would have expected it at the start of November, it makes sense to pit the Razorbacks against the Buckeyes. You need top-caliber quarterbacks for big bowls, and they don’t get much better than Ryan Mallet.

9) Oklahoma

Kinda saw that one coming, eh? Just as they did a week earlier in the Bedlam Game, Oklahoma reasserted their dominance of the Big 12 at the end of the game. The Sooners have now appeared in eight of the 15 conference championship games, winning seven (including five of the last seven titles). Too bad there’s no more North Division to kick around any more.

10) Virginia Tech

After seeing the Hokies predictably K.O. a decent Florida State team, I felt compelled to move Tech over Michigan State. The Hokies are red-hot, and Tyrod Taylor has managed to defy my expectations and developed into a pretty solid (college) passer.

11) Michigan State

Based on their schedule and series of close wins, it made sense to drop the Spartans out of my top 10. That’s not to say they didn’t deserve to play in a BCS bowl; on the contrary, they handed fifth-ranked Wisconsin their only loss. But a season’s worth of games from which to draw shows that MSU wasn’t really elite.

12) Oklahoma State

Okie State’s offense has so much going for it. If only the “D” could have stepped up, particularly in that crushing loss to rival Oklahoma. However, the Cowboys will get a chance at redemption in the Alamo Bowl. A win would prove a lot to me about OSU’s ability to handle prosperity.

13) Nevada

No longer “that little team with the wacky offense,” Nevada came of age this year. In fact, they narrowly missed an at-large BCS berth. Chris Ault and Colin Kaepernick deserve a lot of credit for willing this team to 12 wins. What’s in store next year?

14) Nebraska

For such a promising season, it’s surprising how dark things in Lincoln seem right now. The Taylor Martinez transfer rumors, failure to win the Big 12 in their last go-round, and public humiliation over Bo Pelini’s conduct have combined to cast an ugly pall over the Cornhuskers. It’s hard to say how motivated they’ll be at facing a team in a bowl that they smashed earlier in the year.

15) Missouri

Mizzou was somehow underwhelming at 10-2. They never seemed to really challenge for the division crown, even though they’re certainly a good team. It kind of hurts your squad when the season’s highest point (an upset of then-number one Oklahoma) is halfway through the year.

16) LSU

OK, LSU. You get a chance to prove yourselves against a quality opponent in Texas A&M. What will this team do in the Cotton Bowl? A superior SEC team like them should be able to handle anything a Big 12 team can muster, right? I want to know what Les Miles will do to prepare for this game so that he won’t look like a complete fool.

17) Alabama

Most teams would take a “disappointing” 9-3 season and be satisfied. Alabama isn’t most teams. Arguably the nation’s most storied program, the Crimson Tide were forced to live with the indignity of being knocked off their perch by none other than their bitter rival. If Auburn wins the title, letting that 24-0 lead slip away will go down in infamy in Tuscaloosa. If it hasn’t already.

18) Texas A&M

A well-earned Cotton Bowl bid for the Aggies. The team’s season-ending six-game win streak would have earned them a higher spot on my rankings, but when taking the whole year into account that 30-9 loss to Mizzou really stands out. They’re a top 15 team right now, but we’re looking at a season’s worth of games here.

19) Utah

All right, so the Utes finished 10-2. They didn’t really beat anyone great, but TCU is quite good and they caught Notre Dame just when the Fighting Irish got hot. This ranking is somewhat incomplete until their bowl matchup with Boise State. Then we’ll finally know something about this team.

20) Florida State

Yeah, Virginia Tech ran away from the Seminoles to claim the ACC championship. But that was pretty much expected. Jimbo Fisher has still done a marvelous job in his first season on the sideline, replacing a legend, no less. FSU was rewarded with a great matchup in the Chick-fil-A bowl against South Carolina.

21) Arizona

As I said last week, I’m keeping ‘Zona in the top 25. Their 7-1 start – and subsequent brutal schedule – makes them worthy of a ranking. I’m curious to see if Mike Stoops can shut up long enough to draw up a gameplan to stop Oklahoma State in the Alamo Bowl. He’ll have to think hard.

22) South Carolina

Was South Carolina just a mirage this year? Upon closer inspection, I see a team that played as perfect a game as I’ve ever seen to upset Alabama, then stumbled their to the top of a horrid division. They’re definitely not bad, but they’re far from great, evidenced by the way Auburn swatted them this past weekend.

23) West Virginia

I don’t care if the Mountaineers lost in overtime to UConn – this is the best team in the Big East. They’re actually worthy of being ranked. Of course, WVU could have avoided this problem by not losing to the inferior Huskies and Syracuse. Just another sign of the collective mediocrity in the league.

24) UCF

Central Florida is a top 25 team. I did rank the Knights earlier in the season, but they immediately dropped their next contest. It’s too bad that they have to face a garbage Georgia squad in the Liberty Bowl; it’d be fun to see what they could do against some real competition (not they’re assured of a victory, though; Conference USA teams haven’t exactly had a shining record in bowl games).

25) Mississippi State

Oh, MSU. My love-hate affair with the Bulldogs continues. I don’t want to like this team, but there’s seriously nobody else who deserves to be ranked. This is even a stretch. If only we all went back to a top 20.

Pac-10 Thoughts

I’ll have my full Pac-10 season review next week.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck is my winner. My reasoning is this: besides the fact that he’s the best QB in country and the best player we know is eligible, he’s been the most consistent. Luck has played about 15 minutes of football this season that haven’t been outstanding. That’s better than anyone. Even the other finalists were just above-average early in the year. I’ve seen Luck throw two bad balls this season.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

It would be easier to go for Newton if those allegations weren’t hanging over his head, it’s true. But I’ve been more impressive this year with the assassin-like precision of Luck than the sometimes wild explosiveness of Newton. Just a personal opinion. And Luck is by far the better QB. That’s not debatable.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

James is very, very good. He deserves the Walker and he’s the best player on the best(ish) team. But is that really worthy of a Heisman? I don’t think so. He can still shoot for several school records in the national championship, though.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In the past mid-majors have been quick to rail against the BCS when they were passed up for major bowls. This year TCU said nary a word when they finished third after going undefeated – despite starting the season ranked higher than both Oregon and Auburn – which was somewhat curious. Then, of course, the Horned Frogs promptly accepted a spot in the Big East, which explained it all. I was sad to see this happen for numerous reasons.

First, the move makes no sense geographically. Conferences have traditionally been based on regional proximity, so the Big East’s decision to invite TCU is a transparently obvious one, to be sure. The conference needed legitimacy after its disastrous showing this year, and TCU will help the Big East keep its BCS bid in the future. But Fort Worth, Texas is nowhere near the rest of the schools in the league (the closest is Louisville in Louisville, Kentucky – 900 miles away). TCU doesn’t even play in the same time zone as any of the other Big East members.

So the Big East needed TCU. But did TCU need the Big East? Short answer, no. The Horned Frogs have earned BCS bids the past two seasons, and the Mountain West’s profile has been significantly nationally in the last five years. It’s quite possible that the additions of Boise State, Nevada and Fresno State would have led to the league getting an automatic BCS berth for its champion in the next assessment period. The chances of that happening are significantly lower now that TCU has jumped ship. Quite frankly, this needed to happen, because the MWC is just as good overall as the Big East and better at the top.

Finally, it’s just frustrating to see this because it’s essentially TCU waving a white flag. The Horned Frogs gave up and decided they wanted to join a power conference rather than change the structure of college football from the inside. Or outside, depending on which metaphor you prefer. In any case, it’s a lost opportunity for a great program to challenge the biased BCS structure. Shed a tear or two and remove your hat.

I won’t specifically analyze the national championship and other bowl games until a later post, but there is one thing I want to bring attention to now that will most assuredly be mentioned by commentators and experts in the coming weeks: defensive lines. The SEC’s recent (relative) dominance has been attributed to superior D-line personnel and I tend to agree with this. However, most traditional powerhouse teams (Ohio State, USC, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa) have these kind of massive linemen.

The impact these caliber of players have on a game is almost immeasurable. Ohio State disrupted the Oregon attack in last year’s Rose Bowl because of their NFL-quality D-line. Auburn’s line is similarly (although not quite so) talented. Will they have the same effect? In my opinion these players are more valuable when defending a spread than a traditional offense, because controlling the line of scrimmage is even more valuable when facing a shotgun-based option offense that can run and throw.

When a defense blows up the opposing line in a traditional (think: I-back) offense, the backs are already moving downhill to meet them on run plays and are able to stay in to protect on pass plays. In a spread offense, though, backs generally move laterally and can be caught for losses on runs, and often flare/screen/release on passes, leaving the QB vulnerable. I believe the degree to which both Auburn and Oregon’s defensive lines disrupt the opposing offensive lines will play a major role in which team can get going offensively and get into the high-powered rhythm both teams are accustomed too.

Short notes: I LOVED Oregon State’s throwback “Giant Killer” jerseys, unofficially the only Nike “Pro Combat” uniforms ever designed that don’t look like complete garbage. The classic block-style font, the old-school stripes on the arms and socks, the shockingly all-orange cleat – it reminds me a little of the Chicago Bears jerseys, and it’s beautiful. Everything was integrated wonderfully… While I normally rag on power schools for pathetically timid out-of-conference scheduling, 2010 was an anomaly. We got (results notwithstanding): Penn State-‘Bama, Boise State-Virginia Tech, Oregon-Tennessee, LSU-North Carolina and LSU-West Virginia, Ohio State-Miami (FL), Oklahoma-Florida State, Arizona-Iowa, Oregon State-TCU and Oregon State-Boise State, Nebraska-Washington, Wisconsin-Arizona State, Georgia-Colorado, UCLA-Texas, Pittsburgh-Utah, and of course the return of Arkansas-Texas A&M. Marvelous… I was interested to hear the Orlando Sentinel’s Mike Bianchi on ESPN explaining why he won’t put Cam Newton (or LaMichael James) on his Heisman ballot. It was interesting because Bianchi is the first, and to date only, person ESPN has interviewed who holds this opinion. There are other people who believe the same thing, why hasn’t the network talked to them as well? Is it because it would damage the amount of money ESPN could make broadcasting the Heisman ceremony and analyzing the title game? If you need proof that the network is protecting its own interests – i.e. NCAA revenue and advertising dollars – look no further.

I return next week with my thoughts on the postseason awards and bowl matchups.

Showdown Saturday

National Overview

The end of the regular season in college football can rarely be topped by other sports, and it looks as if this year is going to end with as much excitement as usual. There aren’t as many contests this week, but there are a lot of high quality ones. The conference championship games – despite their pathetically transparent goal of revenue generation – are usually at least watchable and at times turn into classics. And we get two more next year in the Big 10 and Pac-12.

Last week was somewhat devoid of real drama, with the obvious exception of Boise State’s dream getting booted away on two horrible missed field goals. The BCS Bowl representatives will be thrilled at not having to invite another mid-major, though the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (if the Broncos end up there) is so beneath BSU that they might as well not even accept the invite.

Auburn’s comeback against Alabama was certainly impressive, though the Crimson Tide did a pretty good job of hurting themselves as well. Auburn, like Oregon, has played several games this season in which it doesn’t seem possible they actually won. Saturday was another example, as the Tigers rallied from yet another huge deficit to stay undefeated. It’s because of wins like this that I’ve had to really put some deep thought into my top 25 this week.

I wasn’t particularly surprised that Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State – regardless of their record, the Cowboys did seem a little bit like a paper tiger. Oklahoma has just always had that kind of power over their rival, and even though they’ve had an up-and-down season I think the Sooners are the better team.

It was kind of nice to see LSU go down, because all the talk about them being a BCS team was infuriating. I can’t stand when an overrated powerhouse team gets things handed to them (a la Ohio State in 2007 and 2008) and it will be good for the SEC to have a different team in the Sugar Bowl, if that is in fact where Arkansas lands.

Top 25

I really wanted to reevaluate all the teams before I made my rankings this week. Now that we’re just a week away from the end of the season, it makes sense to go back and take the whole year into account. How did a team start? How did they finish? How did they play on the road, or against conference opponents? Good questions all. I tried to consider them in making this list.

1) Oregon

The schedule hasn’t been as tough as Auburn’s. But only half of the SEC teams the Tigers played were actually good. The Ducks have also been more dominant, more consistently. That’s why they’re number one – by a hair – right now.

2) Auburn

If all we looked at was W’s and L’s (like the BCS), Auburn would be number one. However, the defensive issues the Tigers have had are much worse than any Oregon has faced. It’s a tight race, but I can’t put them first.

3) TCU

The Horned Frogs got a lot of good fortune this week; not only did Boise go down, but they’ve finished their schedule earlier than the other top teams. All they need is one upset, and we’ll be looking at a national title game that could shame the BCS into destruction.

4) Stanford

Thank God. If the BCS rankings hold – and they should – Stanford will be guaranteed a BCS slot. It doesn’t matter if the Cardinal travel poorly. There is exactly one other team in the country that can argue for the number four spot, and they’re next.

5) Wisconsin

The Badgers have been even more dominant than Stanford, but their weak non-conference schedule and loss to an inferior team drop them below the Cardinal. Not to worry, though, because Bucky is virtually guaranteed to get that Rose Bowl bid.

6) Ohio State

Ohio State hasn’t really beaten a single good team this year. Iowa is their best win, and the Hawkeyes have fallen apart. That being said, there’s not a whole lot of squads that could take the Buckeyes in a one-game scenario.

7) Arkansas

I thought before I might have been too kind to the Razorbacks; as it turned out, I was being too harsh. Arkansas’ resilience paid off this past week, when they knocked off rival LSU and probably snatched themselves a BCS berth. I’ve criticized the SEC at times for not deserving the attention it gets, but this team has earned everything.

8) Boise State

The Broncos only fall to number eight? Yep, sorry. Boise is still an elite team, and it took a second-half collapse and a pair of flukey shanks off the foot of Kyle Brotzman to send them to their first loss. And yes, BSU is a better team than Nevada. That’s not even up for debate.

9) Michigan State

A semi-close win over so-so Penn State confirms what we already knew: MSU is a nice story and a good team, but they would probably get embarrassed by the rest of the teams in the top 10.

10) Virginia Tech

What a remarkable turnaround. I don’t know if there’s ever been anything in NCAA history like the Hokies 0-2-to-10-2 surge. Left for dead after losses to Boise and James Madison, Tech roared back to sweep the ACC and is now a win away from the Orange Bowl. A tip of the hat seems in order.

11) Oklahoma

I got a little disenchanted with the way Oklahoma was playing back when the Sooners lost by two touchdowns in College Station. As it turned out, that loss wasn’t too bad. And a 10-win season, with another Big 12 title in the cards, is nothing to sneer at.

12) Nebraska

The Cornhuskers looked unstoppable for a while this season, but even with Taylor Martinez they’ve proved that they have some issues. When he’s hurt, things get ugly fast. I think they’ll get brought down to earth by Oklahoma this week.

13) Oklahoma State

Oh, the poor Cowboys. They were so close. To lose to Oklahoma again, and in agonizing fashion, epitomizes the nature of those schools’ rivalry. By all rights it should have been OSU’s year, but once again they’re looking up at the Sooners.

14) Nevada

Well, well, well. Look who just joined the big boy’s table. They needed a couple of breaks and then some to get past Boise, but the Wolf Pack really broke through by (likely) winning the WAC. It’s exciting to think of what the future holds for this school.

15) Missouri

The Tigers do have an impressive upset of Oklahoma to their name, but aside from last week’s beatdown of Kansas they haven’t been very good for the last month or so. The good news: with Nebraska leaving, Missouri will be the clear king of the North next season. The bad news: with Nebraska (and Colorado) leaving, there’s no more North division to be won.

16) South Carolina

The Gamecocks are the underdog for a reason against Auburn, but they’ve certainly got a chance to knock off the Tigers. They would have done so in the teams’ first meeting if they hadn’t turned the ball over so many times. We’ll have to see what Steve Spurrier can come up with this week.

17) LSU

I shouldn’t be so happy that LSU lost. It’s not exactly objective as a commentator. But it’s just got to put smile on your face when an incompetent moron and his bumbling, lucky team get what they deserve. LSU could still beat a lot of squads with the pure talent on their roster, but they’re not a good team by any definition of that word.

18) Alabama

Ooh. That had to sting. I mean, you guys had the Iron Bowl wrapped up! 24-0? Are you kidding me? Yeeesh. I’ve been saying all year that ‘Bama just hasn’t looked right, and Saturday’s collapse confirmed that.

19) Florida State

No surprises in last week’s streak-snapping blowout of Florida. After a couple of bad losses the Seminoles have turned it up the past few weeks. Can they upset Virginia Tech like they did in 2005? I tend to doubt it, but that’s the same thing I said back then.

20) Texas A&M

Winners of their last six, the Aggies have closed this season stronger than they’ve done in years. With the Big 12 about to get smaller, can A&M start to contend again? It’d be fun to see this program have a bit of a revival.

21) Utah

Utah is a top 25 team, but I don’t really know how good they are. After getting exposed by Notre Dame and TCU, the Utes barely beat San Diego State and BYU. The end of the year hasn’t exactly gone the way this team had hoped.

22) Northern Illinois

The Huskies are locked in a tight game with Miami (OH) in the MAC championship game as I write this, so they could get knocked out with a loss. But to this point NIU’s 10-2 record is worthy of a top-25 ranking.

23) Arizona

Even after four straight losses, I still have to rank the Wildcats because they could beat several teams on this list. I said about a month ago that Arizona had a rough schedule ahead, and they just got victimized by it. Stanford, USC, Oregon and Arizona State is a pretty hard slate.

24) West Virginia

What’s this? A Big East team in the top 25? Well, this team has done enough to get in with an 8-3 record and a possible conference title (if UConn loses). The league has been bad this year, but the Mountaineers represent its best.

25) Mississippi State

MSU’s not much of a top 25 team, but as I’ve said many times this year, there aren’t a whole lot of worthy squads out there. This season has seen some lean pickings for my rankings. To their credit, the Bulldogs are 8-4.

Pac-10 Thoughts

Well, here we are. Although the Pac-10’s bowl prospects have been dampened by middling play and brutal non-conference scheduling, Oregon can give the conference its ultimate prize by beating Oregon State this weekend and sending Stanford to a BCS game. The Pac-10 hasn’t had two BCS bids since 2002, when Washington State went to the Rose Bowl as the conference champion (sounds crazy, eh?) and USC went to the Orange Bowl. The extra revenue and exposure would be huge for the league.

In other news, ASU’s upset of Arizona somehow didn’t earn them a bowl waiver from the NCAA, so the Pac-10’s last hope for eligible bowl teams lies with OSU and Washington. It would be great for the Huskies to get back to the postseason after so many years of woe, and I think they’ll be able to pull it off this week in the Apple Cup.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

If there was still any doubt, Luck’s game against Oregon State last week confirmed that he’s the best player in the game. It would take a monster game by another player this week to take it away from him.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

This is largely a symbolic ranking, because Newton has been good enough to win the Heisman on the field but has absolutely fallen short off of it. There’s no argument against that.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

Even with his outstanding stats this season, James hasn’t been at his best for a while. He hasn’t been dominant since the USC game, and he’s fallen back far enough that he should be a finalist only.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The NCAA’s decision on Cam Newton not only makes no sense when compared to the Reggie Bush case, it sets a horrible precedent. Commentators have noted how dangerous it is to allow the “plausible deniability” defense, and I completely agree. Why didn’t that so-called “defense” work for Bush, who never admitted any wrongdoing? The progression of logic in this case is absurd:

1) NCAA concludes Newton’s father Cecil did in fact shop his son around for money with a shady agent character.

2) Under NCAA rules, any family member who solicits gifts in exchange for a player’s services renders that player ineligible due to the NCAA’s amateurism standards.

3) NCAA says it cannot conclude that Cam Newton knew about his father’s actions, so he is not ineligible. What?

Even if the younger Newton had no inkling about his father’s actions – which is laughable considering how widely it’s been reported that their relationship is “very close” (Cam even let Cecil choose his college for him) – IT DOESN’T MATTER! If a family member solicits rewards for play, the player is supposed to be ineligible. PERIOD.

It’s been suggested that the NCAA might be taking a “maximum profit” approach, allowing Auburn to play for the national championship against Oregon rather than letting TCU, with their smaller following, into the biggest game. This would provide the most potential ad revenue for the NCAA. Then, a few years from now, the NCAA could go back, “find new evidence,” and vacate Auburn’s season, essentially milking the cash cow as long as possible until the Tigers aren’t quite as good a few years down the road. If it sounds familiar, it’s because it’s exactly what happened to USC. Why do you think the NCAA drags its feet for so long on these eligibility cases?

Finally, I’ve heard more debates recently about whether TCU deserves to play for the title if Oregon or Auburn loses. The announcers in the MAC championship tonight said the Horned Frogs don’t have the resume to deserve to get there. This is predicated on the faulty logic that the power conferences are really significantly stronger than the others. I don’t know how you can make that argument any more.

While the BCS conferences are certainly deeper and don’t have as many bad teams at the bottom of the standings, the tops of all the leagues have grown much closer in the past five years. TCU and yes, Boise State can beat anyone in the country. At this point their competition is irrelevant, because their rosters are as talented as anyone’s. If Oregon or Auburn go down this week, I will be praying that TCU gets into the national championship. You’ve got to think about the bigger picture, and the Horned Frogs upsetting the comfortable imbalance college football has settled into would be huge for the long-term fortunes of the sport. The BCS has to end, and this is the best way we can speed up the process.