Pac-10 Review
It was a tale of multiple seasons in the Pac-10. In the preseason, conventional wisdom held that Oregon, despite losing Jeremiah Masoli, would be the team to beat. The best challengers would be a neutered-but-still-dangerous USC, unofficial 2009 runner-up Arizona (the Wildcats tied with Oregon State and Stanford), blue-collar Stanford, and always plucky OSU.
For the first month of the season, that was exactly what we saw. Oregon rolled to several big victories, Stanford hammered their first four opponents, and Arizona knocked off Iowa en route to a top 10 ranking. USC played unevenly but went 4-0, while Oregon State garnered national respect for their tough play despite going 1-2 against a difficult schedule.
When October rolled around, though, everyone’s expectations got turned upside down. The Trojans lost back-to-back games to Washington and Stanford, previously left-for-dead Cal hammered a red-hot UCLA team that had just upset Houston and Texas, and Oregon State rebounded to improve to 3-2 after upsetting Arizona. It appeared the Beavers were on their way back up, while Stanford had some legitimate defensive concerns after Oregon dropped 50 on the Cardinal. Arizona seemed down but not out, and the impressive play of backup QB Matt Scott looked like proof that the Wildcats were becoming a Pac-10 power.
But just two weeks into the month, everything got flipped around again. Cal continued a bizarre pattern of either blowing someone out or getting blown out themselves in successive weeks. USC continued to struggle, culminating in their big loss to Oregon. Stanford only got stronger, while OSU dropped three of four to lower-level league opponents, ending in a shocking blowout loss at home to everyone’s favorite whipping boy, Washington State.
Just when it seemed that the conference was Oregon and Stanford and the little eight, the Ducks and Cardinal barely survived nightmare road games on the same night at Cal and ASU, respectively. After starting 7-1, Arizona got their doors blown off by three straight opponents, and then USC lost yet another head-scratcher on the road at OSU before falling in embarrassing fashion at home to rival Notre Dame.
When the smoke cleared, we were left with unexpected results. Oregon managed to become the first and only Pac-10 team to ever escape unscathed from a nine-game conference schedule despite playing their worst ball of the season in November, Stanford finished 11-1 after clobbering their final two challengers, and the league was left with just four bowl-eligible teams. Oregon State and Cal finished 5-7, ASU was denied a bowl waiver at 6-6 (thanks to beating two FCS teams), and USC was forced to sit out the postseason because of NCAA sanctions. It was a very strange year.
We’ll have to wait for the bowl results before it will be possible to draw real conclusions from the 2010 season, but it’s already clear that the conference is in flux, even before Colorado and Utah join in the offseason. Even though Oregon appears poised to stay on top of the league, there are still no guarantees (just look at USC’s toppled dynasty). I doubt that Stanford can consistently be an elite team because of the school’s academic requirements and the likelihood that they’ll be losing both QB Andrew Luck and coach Jim Harbaugh sooner rather than later. Oregon State is going to rebound from their nightmare year, but it’s apparent that the Beavers need to make some changes to remain near the top.
USC has been hobbled, and all accounts say the worst is yet to come. With additional scholarship losses looming and the shine officially off the Trojans’ star, it’ll be hard for SC to convince recruits to come play for them in the next few seasons. Arizona took a major step backwards in 2010, though I think they’ll benefit from their new division alignment.
Cal is the team in biggest need of change. The Golden Bears haven’t improved since 2006, and nothing that happened this year indicated anything but more of the same. A coaching change – perhaps even a head coaching change – is a must. UCLA is in the same boat, though Rick Neuheisel isn’t on quite as hot a seat as Jeff Tedford.
Washington improved this year, but they’ll need to do so again in 2011 if they want to make it to consecutive bowls, because they got lucky to finish 6-6. I thought Arizona State made the biggest strides this year (even more so than Stanford), and the Sun Devils should have been about 8-4 and in a bowl. Next year they could be the team to beat in the South Division if they play more consistently. And finally, there’s WSU, who significantly improved in year three under Paul Wulff and found a star in QB Jeff Tuel. The Cougars’ Dark Age appears to be ending.
I thought it would be interesting (and hopefully not too embarrassing) to go back and compare the year’s results to my preseason predictions. First, the Pac-10:
Pac-10: Projected winner – Oregon
Actual winner – Oregon
I had OSU three spots too high (second) and ASU four spots too low (ninth), but otherwise, not too shabby. I had Oregon first, then Stanford, Washington and USC after the Beavers, which is the order the top of the conference finished. I flip-flopped Cal and Arizona in the middle of the league, then had UCLA eight (the Bruins finished ninth) and of course WSU last. On to my other predictions.
ACC: Projected winner – Miami (FL).
Actual winner – Virginia Tech
Ouch. Well, I did say that the Coastal Division was way better than the Atlantic, which was true, but I severely underestimated the overall mediocrity of this league and whiffed badly on the Hurricanes. I did think Tech was pretty good, but I thought this would be the year Miami finally broke through and beat their old rival. Anyone who watched the Canes play this season can say that idea is laughable.
Big East: Projected winner – Pittsburgh
Actual winner – Connecticut
Pitt was one of the season’s biggest flops, while UConn pretty much came out of nowhere. I thought West Virginia was the second-best team and the Mountaineers should have won the conference, but as with the ACC I really didn’t know how bad the quality of play was going to be here.
Big 10: Projected winner – Ohio State
Actual winner – Wisconsin/Ohio State/Michigan State
Hey, I was 1/3 right! OSU went 11-1, so I predicted their record correctly. The problem was that the Buckeyes lone loss came to Wisconsin, whose lone loss was to Michigan State, whose lone loss came to… Iowa? Hey, why isn’t MSU the conference champion? What’s going on here? Oh, right, the tiebreaker rules. Just another reason to hate the BCS.
Big 12: Projected winner – Oklahoma
Actual Winner – Oklahoma
Wow. I was 100 percent right about this one. Let’s see… “Texas will take a step back.” Check. “Nebraska won’t be as good as advertised.” Check. “The Sooners rebound from their injury-plagued 2009 season and return to form.” Check. All right.
Conference USA: Projected winner – Houston
Actual winner – Central Florida
I feel cheated on this one. The Cougars were never the same after QB Case Keenum went down against UCLA in the third game. I probably should have considered the Knights because they’ve been good recently, but forgot about them completely in my emphatic endorsement of Houston.
Mountain West: Projected winner – TCU
Actual winner – TCU
This was a no-brainer. I can’t really take a whole lot of credit for this one.
MAC: Projected winner – Temple
Actual winner – Miami (OH)
Temple was on track to win the West before losing their last two, including the division-deciding finale to Miami. My choice for runner-up, Northern Illinois, won the East but lost to the Redhawks in the conference final.
SEC: Projected winner – Alabama
Actual winner – Auburn
Pretty much everyone thought the Crimson Tide were shoo-ins, so I don’t feel too bad about this. Nobody anticipated the impact Cam Newton would have either. ‘Bama was still quite good, but the preseason injury to Mark Ingram kind of foretold what kind of adversity they were going to face this year.
Sun Belt: Projected winner – Middle Tennessee
Actual winner – Florida International
This one came out of left field. FIU has been terrible since joining the FBS, and quite frankly, they still are. But they got the most important wins – including over co-champ Troy – despite falling to Middle Tennessee. I’ll be honest: the Sun Belt is really bad, so it’s pretty tough to pick.
WAC: Projected winner – Boise State
Actual winner – Nevada/Boise State/Hawaii
I just didn’t think Nevada would ever knock off Boise in the WAC pecking order. It’s a testament to the hard work the Wolf Pack put in the past year that they were in position to upset the Broncos. Of course, Boise State was still quite good, but they lost one league game that really mattered.
I suppose the only conference I was wildly off about was the ACC, where my pick of Miami (FL) now looks really bad. But otherwise, no team I chose finished lower than third in their conference. I’ve live with that result.
The bowl season has just begun, so prepare yourself. There’s a long way to go before that magical game on January 10th. Just follow my bowl preview to find out what games you should be watching.
The bowl season has just begun, so prepare yourself. There’s a long way to go before that magical game on January 10th. Just follow my bowl preview to find out what games you should be watching.
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