Season finale

National Overview

The end of the regular season. Another year of college football has come and gone. As the bowls really are a “second season,” it’s realistic to look upon this as the end, which it is for 50 teams already and probably should be for another 20. Really, 35 bowl games are ridiculous. I’ll talk about this next week.

Auburn and Oregon, you might have heard, authoritatively clinched the two spots in the national championship game, while TCU was left out in the cold. The Horned Frogs can’t really complain – their best win was over Utah – but it still stinks that they don’t get a chance at real glory in a you-know-what. You know, like a tournament, where the winners advance and play again the next week. Whatever that’s called.

I have to say, though, with the exception of the Big East getting a team into the BCS, I’m pretty happy with the pairings we got in the top bowls this season. Ohio State-Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl is great, Stanford-Virginia Tech in the Orange is great, and TCU-Wisconsin in Pasadena is great. Auburn-Oregon has a lot of potential, too, so the BCS got lucky this year.

There’s still that ugly Fiesta Bowl, though. Hey, you know who’d have been better than unranked, 8-4 Connecticut? Freakin’ ANYBODY! How about Michigan State, who lost once? Well, OK, only two teams from each conference. Well, how about Oklahoma State? Or Missouri? Or maybe Boise State, who everyone knows is really good despite a close loss to Nevada? Hey, the Wolf Pack went 12-1. The rule that all the BCS conference champs have to be invited is ludicrous if they don’t deserve to go.

But enough about the BCS. That subject is tired and can be addressed at some other point. For now let’s move on to my final top 25 until the New Year.

Top 25

I made some last-minute change to my rankings after the final week of action. This list is now the basis for how we’ll look at the whole year of results, so preseason rankings and rankings at the time a game was played no longer have any relevance. This is useful for determining, in retrospect, just how good a team is.

For example, South Carolina beat three ranked teams, right? ESPN has the Gamecocks with wins over number one Alabama, number 22 Georgia and number 22 Florida. However, we all know now that Florida and Georgia are no good and that Alabama wasn’t what we thought they were. So was South Carolina really that good? Postseason regular are helpful like that (although I still give precedence to head-to-head results when applicable).

1) Auburn

Oregon hasn’t played well of late, it’s as simple as that. I put almost no stock into the Tigers’ SEC title game beatdown of South Carolina – playing a team twice shouldn’t earn you squat – but gave them credit for playing better at the end of the year than the Ducks.

2) Oregon

Oregon was awful against Cal, decent against Arizona, and sloppy versus OSU. Compare that to their first nine games, when they rolled to more than 55 points a game and gave up fewer than 18. Something’s been up with the Ducks in November, and they’ll have to recapture their early-season spark if they want to win the title.

3) TCU

The Horned Frogs didn’t get the miracle they needed, but the Granddaddy of Them All sure isn’t a bad consolation prize. Interestingly, with the school’s move to the Big East, they decided to keep their mouths shut about BCS inequity. As they should.

4) Stanford

The fact that Stanford doesn’t get to play in the Rose Bowl is unfortunate, but it’s hard to complain about an Orange Bowl berth. Thank goodness the coaches didn’t see fit to jump Wisconsin over the Cardinal in the final rankings.

5) Wisconsin

It’ll be a marvelous Rose Bowl matchup, featuring the Badgers’ insanely explosive offense and the Horned Frogs’ nation-leading defense. Despite my reservations about Wisconsin’s “Big 10 championship,” I have to admit it’s cool to see them back in Pasadena. It’s been too long.

6) Ohio State

Ohio State was mighty quiet during all the BCS hubbub the past few weeks. That was an excellent move, because it prevented anyone from taking notice of their schedule and asking the simple question, “Who have you guys beaten?” The answer: no one in the top 25. But the Buckeyes are still pretty good, and Jim Tressel will have them ready for Arkansas.

7) Boise State

I went through my rankings again and decided to move Boise up ahead of Arkansas. This obviously isn’t based on schedule, because the Razorbacks played a much tougher one. It has more to do with the fact that I think the Broncos would wipe out the boys from Fayetteville if they actually met on the field.

8) Arkansas

It’s official: Arkansas is going to their first BCS bowl. Congratulations are in order. Although few would have expected it at the start of November, it makes sense to pit the Razorbacks against the Buckeyes. You need top-caliber quarterbacks for big bowls, and they don’t get much better than Ryan Mallet.

9) Oklahoma

Kinda saw that one coming, eh? Just as they did a week earlier in the Bedlam Game, Oklahoma reasserted their dominance of the Big 12 at the end of the game. The Sooners have now appeared in eight of the 15 conference championship games, winning seven (including five of the last seven titles). Too bad there’s no more North Division to kick around any more.

10) Virginia Tech

After seeing the Hokies predictably K.O. a decent Florida State team, I felt compelled to move Tech over Michigan State. The Hokies are red-hot, and Tyrod Taylor has managed to defy my expectations and developed into a pretty solid (college) passer.

11) Michigan State

Based on their schedule and series of close wins, it made sense to drop the Spartans out of my top 10. That’s not to say they didn’t deserve to play in a BCS bowl; on the contrary, they handed fifth-ranked Wisconsin their only loss. But a season’s worth of games from which to draw shows that MSU wasn’t really elite.

12) Oklahoma State

Okie State’s offense has so much going for it. If only the “D” could have stepped up, particularly in that crushing loss to rival Oklahoma. However, the Cowboys will get a chance at redemption in the Alamo Bowl. A win would prove a lot to me about OSU’s ability to handle prosperity.

13) Nevada

No longer “that little team with the wacky offense,” Nevada came of age this year. In fact, they narrowly missed an at-large BCS berth. Chris Ault and Colin Kaepernick deserve a lot of credit for willing this team to 12 wins. What’s in store next year?

14) Nebraska

For such a promising season, it’s surprising how dark things in Lincoln seem right now. The Taylor Martinez transfer rumors, failure to win the Big 12 in their last go-round, and public humiliation over Bo Pelini’s conduct have combined to cast an ugly pall over the Cornhuskers. It’s hard to say how motivated they’ll be at facing a team in a bowl that they smashed earlier in the year.

15) Missouri

Mizzou was somehow underwhelming at 10-2. They never seemed to really challenge for the division crown, even though they’re certainly a good team. It kind of hurts your squad when the season’s highest point (an upset of then-number one Oklahoma) is halfway through the year.

16) LSU

OK, LSU. You get a chance to prove yourselves against a quality opponent in Texas A&M. What will this team do in the Cotton Bowl? A superior SEC team like them should be able to handle anything a Big 12 team can muster, right? I want to know what Les Miles will do to prepare for this game so that he won’t look like a complete fool.

17) Alabama

Most teams would take a “disappointing” 9-3 season and be satisfied. Alabama isn’t most teams. Arguably the nation’s most storied program, the Crimson Tide were forced to live with the indignity of being knocked off their perch by none other than their bitter rival. If Auburn wins the title, letting that 24-0 lead slip away will go down in infamy in Tuscaloosa. If it hasn’t already.

18) Texas A&M

A well-earned Cotton Bowl bid for the Aggies. The team’s season-ending six-game win streak would have earned them a higher spot on my rankings, but when taking the whole year into account that 30-9 loss to Mizzou really stands out. They’re a top 15 team right now, but we’re looking at a season’s worth of games here.

19) Utah

All right, so the Utes finished 10-2. They didn’t really beat anyone great, but TCU is quite good and they caught Notre Dame just when the Fighting Irish got hot. This ranking is somewhat incomplete until their bowl matchup with Boise State. Then we’ll finally know something about this team.

20) Florida State

Yeah, Virginia Tech ran away from the Seminoles to claim the ACC championship. But that was pretty much expected. Jimbo Fisher has still done a marvelous job in his first season on the sideline, replacing a legend, no less. FSU was rewarded with a great matchup in the Chick-fil-A bowl against South Carolina.

21) Arizona

As I said last week, I’m keeping ‘Zona in the top 25. Their 7-1 start – and subsequent brutal schedule – makes them worthy of a ranking. I’m curious to see if Mike Stoops can shut up long enough to draw up a gameplan to stop Oklahoma State in the Alamo Bowl. He’ll have to think hard.

22) South Carolina

Was South Carolina just a mirage this year? Upon closer inspection, I see a team that played as perfect a game as I’ve ever seen to upset Alabama, then stumbled their to the top of a horrid division. They’re definitely not bad, but they’re far from great, evidenced by the way Auburn swatted them this past weekend.

23) West Virginia

I don’t care if the Mountaineers lost in overtime to UConn – this is the best team in the Big East. They’re actually worthy of being ranked. Of course, WVU could have avoided this problem by not losing to the inferior Huskies and Syracuse. Just another sign of the collective mediocrity in the league.

24) UCF

Central Florida is a top 25 team. I did rank the Knights earlier in the season, but they immediately dropped their next contest. It’s too bad that they have to face a garbage Georgia squad in the Liberty Bowl; it’d be fun to see what they could do against some real competition (not they’re assured of a victory, though; Conference USA teams haven’t exactly had a shining record in bowl games).

25) Mississippi State

Oh, MSU. My love-hate affair with the Bulldogs continues. I don’t want to like this team, but there’s seriously nobody else who deserves to be ranked. This is even a stretch. If only we all went back to a top 20.

Pac-10 Thoughts

I’ll have my full Pac-10 season review next week.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck is my winner. My reasoning is this: besides the fact that he’s the best QB in country and the best player we know is eligible, he’s been the most consistent. Luck has played about 15 minutes of football this season that haven’t been outstanding. That’s better than anyone. Even the other finalists were just above-average early in the year. I’ve seen Luck throw two bad balls this season.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

It would be easier to go for Newton if those allegations weren’t hanging over his head, it’s true. But I’ve been more impressive this year with the assassin-like precision of Luck than the sometimes wild explosiveness of Newton. Just a personal opinion. And Luck is by far the better QB. That’s not debatable.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

James is very, very good. He deserves the Walker and he’s the best player on the best(ish) team. But is that really worthy of a Heisman? I don’t think so. He can still shoot for several school records in the national championship, though.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In the past mid-majors have been quick to rail against the BCS when they were passed up for major bowls. This year TCU said nary a word when they finished third after going undefeated – despite starting the season ranked higher than both Oregon and Auburn – which was somewhat curious. Then, of course, the Horned Frogs promptly accepted a spot in the Big East, which explained it all. I was sad to see this happen for numerous reasons.

First, the move makes no sense geographically. Conferences have traditionally been based on regional proximity, so the Big East’s decision to invite TCU is a transparently obvious one, to be sure. The conference needed legitimacy after its disastrous showing this year, and TCU will help the Big East keep its BCS bid in the future. But Fort Worth, Texas is nowhere near the rest of the schools in the league (the closest is Louisville in Louisville, Kentucky – 900 miles away). TCU doesn’t even play in the same time zone as any of the other Big East members.

So the Big East needed TCU. But did TCU need the Big East? Short answer, no. The Horned Frogs have earned BCS bids the past two seasons, and the Mountain West’s profile has been significantly nationally in the last five years. It’s quite possible that the additions of Boise State, Nevada and Fresno State would have led to the league getting an automatic BCS berth for its champion in the next assessment period. The chances of that happening are significantly lower now that TCU has jumped ship. Quite frankly, this needed to happen, because the MWC is just as good overall as the Big East and better at the top.

Finally, it’s just frustrating to see this because it’s essentially TCU waving a white flag. The Horned Frogs gave up and decided they wanted to join a power conference rather than change the structure of college football from the inside. Or outside, depending on which metaphor you prefer. In any case, it’s a lost opportunity for a great program to challenge the biased BCS structure. Shed a tear or two and remove your hat.

I won’t specifically analyze the national championship and other bowl games until a later post, but there is one thing I want to bring attention to now that will most assuredly be mentioned by commentators and experts in the coming weeks: defensive lines. The SEC’s recent (relative) dominance has been attributed to superior D-line personnel and I tend to agree with this. However, most traditional powerhouse teams (Ohio State, USC, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa) have these kind of massive linemen.

The impact these caliber of players have on a game is almost immeasurable. Ohio State disrupted the Oregon attack in last year’s Rose Bowl because of their NFL-quality D-line. Auburn’s line is similarly (although not quite so) talented. Will they have the same effect? In my opinion these players are more valuable when defending a spread than a traditional offense, because controlling the line of scrimmage is even more valuable when facing a shotgun-based option offense that can run and throw.

When a defense blows up the opposing line in a traditional (think: I-back) offense, the backs are already moving downhill to meet them on run plays and are able to stay in to protect on pass plays. In a spread offense, though, backs generally move laterally and can be caught for losses on runs, and often flare/screen/release on passes, leaving the QB vulnerable. I believe the degree to which both Auburn and Oregon’s defensive lines disrupt the opposing offensive lines will play a major role in which team can get going offensively and get into the high-powered rhythm both teams are accustomed too.

Short notes: I LOVED Oregon State’s throwback “Giant Killer” jerseys, unofficially the only Nike “Pro Combat” uniforms ever designed that don’t look like complete garbage. The classic block-style font, the old-school stripes on the arms and socks, the shockingly all-orange cleat – it reminds me a little of the Chicago Bears jerseys, and it’s beautiful. Everything was integrated wonderfully… While I normally rag on power schools for pathetically timid out-of-conference scheduling, 2010 was an anomaly. We got (results notwithstanding): Penn State-‘Bama, Boise State-Virginia Tech, Oregon-Tennessee, LSU-North Carolina and LSU-West Virginia, Ohio State-Miami (FL), Oklahoma-Florida State, Arizona-Iowa, Oregon State-TCU and Oregon State-Boise State, Nebraska-Washington, Wisconsin-Arizona State, Georgia-Colorado, UCLA-Texas, Pittsburgh-Utah, and of course the return of Arkansas-Texas A&M. Marvelous… I was interested to hear the Orlando Sentinel’s Mike Bianchi on ESPN explaining why he won’t put Cam Newton (or LaMichael James) on his Heisman ballot. It was interesting because Bianchi is the first, and to date only, person ESPN has interviewed who holds this opinion. There are other people who believe the same thing, why hasn’t the network talked to them as well? Is it because it would damage the amount of money ESPN could make broadcasting the Heisman ceremony and analyzing the title game? If you need proof that the network is protecting its own interests – i.e. NCAA revenue and advertising dollars – look no further.

I return next week with my thoughts on the postseason awards and bowl matchups.