This is Halloween

National Overview

That didn’t last long. So it turned out Oklahoma really was overrated, though Missouri was apparently better than I thought. Unless, of course, Oklahoma was so overrated that Missouri beating them is no big deal… which would make Missouri overrated as well. Huh? This is why we need a playoff, people.

I hate to pile on the Big 12, but common sense would dictate that the “overrated” theory is correct. Oklahoma’s BCS strength of schedule was built on “quality wins” over Air Force, Texas, and Cincinnati. All three teams lost Saturday; Air Force and Cincinnati by greater margins than their respective losses to the Sooners, Texas by only seven but to a terrible Iowa State squad.

In happy news, we finally saw LSU go down, so that charade is over. A lot of commentators talked about the so-called “eye test” this week, saying that the respect awarded the Tigers by the BCS was because the computers don’t account for margin of victory. LSU’s series of close wins in bumbling fashion was regarded just as highly by the computers as TCU’s string of dominant blowouts. The computers still like the Tigers way more than they should, but at least the loss to Auburn (should) make the human voters influence LSU’s ranking for the worse.

Oregon predictably shredded UCLA, though the 47-point win was still a bit eye-opening because of the ease with which the Ducks tossed the Bruins aside. Oregon’s strength of schedule is lagging behind the other contenders’ because of the lack of a margin-of-victory component. Still, the Pac-10 schedule gets anything but simpler for the Ducks in the weeks ahead, so they’ll have some chances to prove themselves (of course, so will the rest of the conference when they play UO).

The Big 10 saw a pair of close games that will probably end up having a big impact on the league’s title race. I really thought Iowa would flex their muscle and knock Wisconsin out of the Big 10 chase. Seeing the Badgers come back for that stirring win was pretty impressive, and it announced Bucky’s return as a contender.

Michigan State’s magical run continued with another close win, but I can’t help but feel that the Spartans’ good fortune might be about to run out. Another road game against a good opponent this week is going to be a real strain for MSU. Iowa will be mad after they left one get away against Wisconsin, and there’s no telling how much Michigan State will have left in the tank after their comeback victory over Northwestern. If the Spartans win, though… there’s almost nothing left to stop them from going 12-0.

If ever there was a year that a non-automatic-qualifying team could make it to the BCS championship, it would be this year. Boise State, TCU and Utah have to have been rubbing their hands with glee at the upsets of the past several weeks. We’re now perilously close to the ultimate Armageddon scenario (in the minds of the BCS computers, that is). Oregon, Auburn, MSU and Missouri all have legitimate tests in the next month and could conceivably lose. If they do, I don’t think there’s a good argument to keep the mid-majors out of the national championship. All three teams have proved over the last decade that they can play with anyone and beaten top BCS-conference foes. If the debate comes down to an undefeated power conference team and an undefeated BSU/TCU/Utah, the little guys will get left out. But if there’s only one undefeated team from the Big Six leagues…

Top 25

The BCS rankings continue to confound, so I’ll have to clear things up. Is Oregon the best team in the country? Maybe, maybe not, but I can say with certainty that they’re not eighth, where the computers have them. Auburn’s win over LSU helps their computer numbers, but I thought the Bayou Bengals were mediocre anyway. I can’t reward Auburn for beating an over-ranked team, which is why they’re not number two. I just rank ‘em how I see ‘em. It’s my version of that eye test everyone’s talking about.

1) Oregon

UCLA is not good. Oregon is. Ripping apart a bad team doesn’t lose you points unless you do it on a week-to-week basis. If someone has a win that makes them worthy of moving to number one ahead of the Ducks, I’ll do it. Until then, Oregon has the top spot. But they’d better beware of USC this weekend.

2) Boise State

Idle, which by my reasoning makes them vulnerable, right? Indeed. But I know and you know that LSU was not a top 10 team, regardless of whatever some computer wants to tell us. Boise State has earned their current ranking. The question of whether they can continue to be worthy of it remains to be seen.

3) Auburn

The Tigers could have put up another touchdown to pad their stats versus LSU, so credit them for showing restraint and class. But lost amid the HUGE TOP TEN SEC SHOWDOWN hype was the fact that LSU could have won this game. If Onterio McCalebb doesn’t rip off an unlikely 70-yard run in the fourth quarter, LSU’s crazy endgame luck could have prevailed again. And LSU, I believe I have established, is not a great team.

4) TCU

Big win over Air Force this week. If Auburn had played, say, Vanderbilt, I would have moved the Horned Frogs up to number three. You have to have sympathy for TCU as they get passed by every flash-in-the-pan hot BCS conference team. It’s unfortunately all too easy to imagine the stuffy poll voters as they fill out their ballots: “Oh sure, I can’t move (team X) past Boise, but TCU? Ha ha, of course I can.”

5) Stanford

The Cardinal’s lack of respect in every possible measure is baffling. What did Stanford do to make the voters so angry? Let’s review: they rise to number nine following a dominant first four games. Then they lose to Oregon by 21 on the road, a team the coaches think is so good they awarded the Ducks 50 of a possible 59 first-place votes this week. But Stanford is only 14^th, right behind LSU. Are you kidding me?!

6) Utah

Though Air Force went down hard to TCU last week, they’ll still provide a nice test for the Utes in their final game before facing the Horned Frogs. This game should demonstrate if Utah is for real; win big, and their undefeated start is validated. A loss, or even a close win, would be cause for a drop in the rankings.

7) Michigan State

The Spartans came very close to falling from the ranks of the unbeaten, but survived against Northwestern. This game provided ammunition for all the cynics who saw MSU as a cute little team that would eventually get exposed. It’s worth noting that Northwestern is actually a pretty good team, but this was also the Spartans’ first game outside their own state and they didn’t exactly acquit themselves well.

8) Missouri

I’m willing to move the Tigers up a lot after their win over Oklahoma; they earned it. But I’ll say it again – that was the first good team Mizzou has played all year. The last two teams to beat the number one team had very different results in their next game. Is Missouri closer to South Carolina (lost to Kentucky) or Wisconsin (beat Iowa)?

9) Alabama

No, I won’t move the Crimson Tide up just because they won. Ole Miss is maybe an average team, and that’s probably being kind. The Tide have plenty of opportunities ahead of them to take control of the SEC anyway, so they can impress me later on. Until they play LSU and Auburn, though, they don’t deserve any additional respect.

10) Arizona

The Nick Foles situation makes ranking the Wildcats a trickier proposition than before, but Matt Scott deflected any quarterback questions with his efficient, impressive play Saturday night. I really thought Washington would give ‘Zona a bigger challenge. Instead, they were completely outclassed. Arizona should handle UCLA easily this week and rest Foles. They’ll need him the following game at Stanford.

11) Wisconsin

So the Ohio State win wasn’t just a fluke. But it’s hard to say what else we know for sure about Wisconsin right now. They’ve played three good teams and beaten two of them, though they also struggled against some lesser competition. The main problem now for the Badgers is that they have to rely on a Michigan State loss to win the Big 10 title, and would need a second if they want to go the Rose Bowl.

12) Ohio State

49-0 over Purdue doesn’t really do anything for me, and Terrelle Pryor’s accuracy is quickly becoming laughable. However, the Buckeyes have been in this position in previous seasons and have always seemingly escaped out of nowhere with at least a share of the conference crown. I don’t think OSU is a top-10 ten, but they’re definitely not bad. Big 10 rivals would be foolish to prematurely celebrate their demise.

13) Arkansas

I’m banking a lot on the idea that Alabama is still an elite team. If not, Arkansas has nothing to go on, because their defense got shredded by Auburn and the Tide. I love the Razorback offense, which features the best QB and receiving core in the SEC, but the rest of the team is entirely average.

14) Nebraska

We’ll see what Nebraska can do to rebound after their Texas loss. Yes, the Cornhuskers actually already won last week at Oklahoma State, but the Cowboys don’t have anything resembling a defense. Missouri showed significant improvement defensively against Oklahoma, so this will be a legitimate test. It’s also a showdown that will probably determine the division winner.

15) Virginia Tech

The Hokies have a lot of momentum, even though no one was impressed by the blowout of lowly Duke. The ACC is weak enough that Tech might roll right through it undefeated, and fortunately for them the only team that could give them trouble is Florida State, who they won’t see until the title game.

16) Oklahoma

It’s disgusting that Oklahoma is still in the BCS top 10. The Sooners have looked shaky all year and when they finally found someone who could stand up to them, they lost. Their chances to go undefeated through the rest of their conference slate are less than great, and they’ll still have to face Nebraska or Missouri again if they get to the title game.

17) Florida State

FSU got a breather from, you know, their rough ACC schedule last week to prepare for North Carolina State. This is actually a pretty important contest because the Wolfpack are the only team with a realistic chance to challenge the ‘Noles in the Atlantic Division, but I think FSU should win.

18) South Carolina

This is a fairly enigmatic team right now. If you take away their win against Alabama, when they played basically a perfect game, they haven’t looked that good. The Gamecocks sandwiched the ‘Bama upset with losses to Auburn and Kentucky, and in both games they blew a fourth-quarter lead. They have to start winning with style against the rest of the weak SEC East if they want to impress anyone.

19) USC

The Trojans hammered Cal and got an extra week to prepare for the Oregon attack. Extra time in that regard has proved very important for teams in the past (all three teams that beat Oregon in 2009 had at least two weeks to prepare). This game will finally answer some questions about both the Trojans and Ducks; namely, whether Oregon is truly elite and whether SC is on their way back up or circling the drain.

20) Iowa

Iowa’s 2009 magic obviously isn’t around any more, and the Hawkeyes are suffering for it. That said, I think they’re the best team in the Big 10 and can absolutely knock off Michigan State this weekend. The problem, surprisingly enough, hasn’t been last season’s hero/goat, Ricky Stanzi. Rather, it’s been a defense unable to get crucial stops – most unlike traditional Iowa football. We’ll see if they can get back on track against the Spartans.

21) Mississippi State

I’m annoyed that I have to include the Bulldogs in my top 25. Their big win over Florida is nothing to be proud of, and they haven’t beaten anyone else of note. Unfortunately, pickings are slim at this point, and the fact that these guys have played eight games already (two months without a bye) makes them deserving of a little credit.

22) Oklahoma State

Nebraska isn’t an elite team, so ranking the Cowboys any higher than here is an absolute joke. I shouldn’t have to remind people that OSU has beaten no one decent. However, their offense is outstanding enough to make up for their lousy ‘D,’ and against most teams that’s all they’ll need. They don’t have a prayer at winning their division, but I can see eight or nine wins.

23) Oregon State

I made the same argument last year about the Beavers: everyone knows they’ll rattle off several wins in the last half of the season, beat a superior team, and be in the mix for the Pac-10 championship. I might as well reserve them a spot in the rankings now and look smart when they do what they always do. This year’s squad hasn’t looked as good as 2008 or 2009’s, but don’t kid yourself – Oregon State is always dangerous.

24) LSU

Everyone outside of Baton Rouge was overjoyed to see the Tigers go down. Sadly, I doubt this is the last we’ll see or hear of LSU this season. The computers love them so much, any kind of respectable record – 9-3, 10-2, etc. – will be rewarded extremely unjustly. They could still bumble their way into a BCS bowl if we’re not careful.

25) Miami (FL)

I hate that I had to move Miami back into the top 25, but as I said with Mississippi State, there’s not a whole lot left to choose from. The Hurricanes’ losses are to good teams, and they shouldn’t fall again before facing nemesis Virginia Tech in mid-November. As unlikely as it sounds given the way they’ve looked, Miami could still sneak into the ACC title game.

Pac-10 Thoughts

There wasn’t a whole lot to draw from last week’s games, as both Oregon State and USC were off and Oregon and Cal posted massive blowouts. I was surprised to see Arizona State take such a beating, but it’s clear now that the Sun Devils are essentially an average team. Cal’s home/away performance differential is now completely insane. The Bears have gone 4-0 at home by an average score of 47-9 and gone 0-3 on the road by an average score of 27-14. That’s just crazy.

This week’s matchups are far more interesting. Oregon has to face perhaps their toughest test yet at USC, Oregon State gets a chance to rebound against Cal, and Stanford will try for revenge after last year’s last-second loss to Washington. Arizona-UCLA should be ugly, but there’s another game involving an Arizona school that has potential. Washington State is playing a reeling ASU team with a great shot at their first Pac-10 win since 2008. Can the Cougars end their appalling 14-game conference losing streak?

The Oregon-USC contest has gotten a lot of press, for good reason. It’s been touted as an official changing-of-the-guard moment for the conference (as if last season’s 47-20 beat down at Autzen wasn’t enough).However, I just don’t think this is accurate. USC is absolutely capable of beating Oregon, but if they do, it’s not the end of the world for the Ducks, who can still play for the Pac-10 championship. Likewise, if Oregon continues their dominant play and beats SC, I don’t see how this game would signify the end of their dynasty. To me, that moment came in the USC-Stanford game last year, when the Cardinal hammered the Trojans (in the Coliseum, no less). USC can and probably will rise again from their sanctions and be a very good team. But that special USC magic was officially lost when Stanford dropped 50 on them.

Heisman Watch

No changes in my rankings this week… no one did enough to move up or down, and no outsiders played well enough to add themselves to the list.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

I’ll say this about Newton: he is absolutely not a QB. He’s a brilliant runner and athlete, but let’s please stop the charade of calling him a “running QB.” He’s a running back, plain and simple. With that said, though, he’s still been the best player in the country through the first two months of the season.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

James was actually a little underwhelming against UCLA, though it’s a good sign if 123 yards and two TD’s is considered disappointing. He didn’t hurt himself, but wasn’t special enough to move up. It will be interesting to see how he plays against USC; the 2009 Trojan game was James’ launching pad, when he ran for nearly 200 yards and three scores.

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck hasn’t failed to throw fewer than two TD’s in any game this season. His consistency is just as impressive as his physical tools, and he’s as mechanically sound as any QB in the country. When he gets into a rhythm he’s completely unstoppable, and he’s also in the advantageous position of having a defense that can’t always be counted on, forcing him to play full games.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

The numbers (1,800 yards, 18 TD’s and two INT’s) are eye-popping even before you consider that Moore hasn’t played in most fourth quarters. If Boise State wanted to, they could let him throw for 400 yards and five scores a game, but at this point that’s not necessary to garner respect. When you play at as high a level as Moore has for as long as he has, there’s not much more to say.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In my rant against the BCS last week, I forgot to mention that the system screw-ups I was talking about were only the only involving the top two rankings and thus the national championship game. There have been plenty of other terrible computer decisions involving teams that just wanted to make it to a BCS bowl.

As far as I can recall, the biggest issues in the non-championship BCS rankings have come from the fact that the system is ridiculously unequal. The deference paid to the major conferences is bad enough in itself, but does anyone actually know what Notre Dame’s tie-in to the system is?

Any team hoping to secure an at-large BCS bid (meaning they did not win their conference championship) must be ranked in the top four of the BCS standings to earn a subsequent automatic bid. Notre Dame, on the other hand, needs to only be ranked in the top eight. This is known as the “Notre Dame rule” and applies only to the Fighting Irish. Why? Because Notre Dame in the BCS equals more viewers and more revenue. Because of this, the school has played in three BCS bowls it did not deserve to and got annihilated each time: 41-9 to Oregon State in the 2001 Fiesta Bowl, 34-20 to Ohio State in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, and 41-14 to LSU in the 2007 Sugar Bowl.

At the end of the 2005 season Oregon was fifth in the BCS standings, while Notre Dame was sixth. Oregon had one loss, to top-ranked USC, while Notre Dame had lost to USC as well as Michigan. Common sense would dictate that the Ducks deserved a BCS invite over the Irish, but because of the “Notre Dame rule” they were passed up.

However, it’s unfair to say that all of the BCS controversy is because of Notre Dame. How about just one year before the Ducks-Irish debate, when Texas inexplicably leapfrogged Cal in the final week of the Coaches’ poll, securing them the coveted number four BCS spot? If you don’t remember, this is what happened:

With one week left in the regular season, Cal was ranked fourth in both polls and the BCS. Just ahead of Texas. The Bears had lost just once, to number one USC. Texas had one loss as well, to second-ranked Oklahoma. Cal had led Texas in the rankings every single week since the inaugural BCS standings that year and would have finished the season in the same position had it not been for a scheduling quirk.

The Bears were supposed to play Southern Miss (an average Conference-USA team) back in September, but the contest had been moved to the last week of the season because of a hurricane warning during the week the game was originally scheduled. No matter, Cal thought. We’ll just beat the Golden Eagles and be on our way to a BCS bowl.

But during the week, Texas coach Mack Brown conducted a shameless public campaign to convince voters that Texas should be number four, based on nothing but the obvious fact that he wanted his team to get the money and exposure of a BCS game. When Cal only beat USM by 10, the voters complied with Brown’s wishes, sending Texas to the Rose Bowl. (This is why it was so hard for me to have sympathy for Texas in 2008 when they got screwed by the BCS.)

There was also the Illinois situation in 2007, when the Rose Bowl selected a horribly unworthy Illini team just for the sake of having a Big 10 team. That year also saw Kansas go to the Orange Bowl over the Missouri team that beat them. In 2009 we had five undefeated teams, but only Texas and Alabama got a shot at the title, because, you know, everyone just knew Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU weren’t as good. (Note: I actually agreed. But that doesn’t make it fair.)

Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon was just suspended a game for his recent DUI charge. Everything I’ve read says that Blackmon is a good guy and has taken responsibility for his poor decision. But I wish someone would explain something to me.

Georgia’s A.J. Green missed the first four games of this season after being suspended by the NCAA for selling his 2009 Independence Bowl jersey (reportedly for a few hundred dollars). OK, fine. If the NCAA wants to continue to perpetuate the myth that college athletes are “amateurs,” then Green did indeed break the rules. I think this kind of thing is shady anyway, so a suspension is warranted. But how is Green’s infraction four times worse than Blackmon’s?

Understand, the NCAA suspended Green, while Blackmon has only been suspended by his coach thus far. He might receive additional games off. But if the NCAA lets Blackmon’s punishment stand, what kind of message is it sending? I’m thinking it’s something along the lines of:

“It’s not acceptable for student-athletes to drive drunk – but much worse to for them to sell their own property to make a few bucks while bringing in millions of dollars in revenue for their school.”

By the way, if you want to buy a replica A.J. Green jersey (#8), you’re welcome to do so for $59.95 or $74.95 at this site, courtesy of the University of Georgia, haven of “amateur” athletics!

Short notes: If you want a sign that the game of college football is changing, look no further than the individual rushing yards per game leaders. Just 21 players are currently averaging more than 100 yards a game on the ground, including three QB’s. On the flip side, there are 61 QB’s averaging at least 200 yards passing a game… The Pistol has become the offensive set du jour, much like the Wildcat a few years ago. Commentators have become quick to note when a team has success with the Pistol but ignore it when it fails. The Pistol is almost identical to the standard zone-read, yet people act as if it is some brilliant new invention. Hello – Nevada’s been running it for years, you just didn’t pay attention. It’s just another formation, with the same amount of strengths and weaknesses as any other… I love hearing analysts say they’re giving Boise State “respect” and ranking them outside the top three – in what world is that respect? No, Boise (or TCU) couldn’t go undefeated in a Pac-10/SEC/Big 12/Big 10 schedule, but they can beat any team in a one-game shot, which is all they’re asking for. Either give the little guys actual respect in the form of a top-two ranking or stop lying to yourself… If USC wins this week, would it be the first positive thing Lane Kiffin has accomplished in his entire career? I certainly can’t think of anything else. Debate amongst yourselves, until we meet again.

Mid-October Madness

National Overview

This week marks the one-year anniversary of Making Sense of Saturday! Once again, thanks to everyone who has visited the site in the past year. I hope I can continue to entertain and inform you in the future.

Two big upsets of traditional powers and two big upsets of teams Boise State beat defined this past weekend. Ohio State going down in flames at Wisconsin was surprising, though not totally unexpected. The bigger final score came from Lincoln, where Nebraska was revealed to be pretender.

The fact that the Cornhuskers’ got worked the way they did says a lot, considering their lingering anger from last year’s Big 12 title game and their desire to beat Texas one last time as a conference foe. When I’m wrong in my predictions I’ll face up to them; that’s what makes the Nebraska loss particularly sweet for me. I saw that Nebraska and Taylor Martinez were destined for a fall, so it was fun to get instant vindication on that one.

Boise State was the biggest loser of the weekend despite their 48-0 victory over San Jose State. The BCS computers’ complete lack of respect for anything Boise was broadcast to the world Sunday evening, when the Broncos – initially projected to be first in the BCS standings – saw their computer ranking actually drop because of Oregon State’s loss and the perceived weakness of SJSU.

The BCS rankings were the most important result of the weekend, though people were justifiably surprised at how several teams made out so well compared to others. Oklahoma’s number one ranking was just one of many bizarre ones. Why do the computers like the Big 12 so much? I’ll talk about this later.

Alabama was a winner as well, as the Crimson Tide were shown to still pretty much control their own destiny. A 12-1 SEC Champion Tide squad, with wins over Auburn, LSU and Arkansas, would get tons of love from the computers. There’s obviously a lot of football left to be played, but ‘Bama’s number eight BCS ranking demonstrates that the old adage about college football is true: it’s not necessarily if you lose, but when you lose that counts.

The Pac-10 probably felt a little jilted after receiving so much respect from writers around the country and only seeing three member schools in the BCS. If that continues, it will be a cause for outrage, but remember that the conference was unusually quiet on Saturday. Only three league games were played, and the best game involved what would have been a top-25 team in Oregon State losing.

And finally, let us shed a tear for Air Force and Nevada. The Falcons did already have a loss, but it was still conceivable that they could have run the table in the Mountain West and been America’s favorite underdog of 2010. Nevada couldn’t measure up against a good-but-not-great Hawaii team and can now only shoot as high as the WAC championship, if they’re lucky. Boise State was also horrified to see the Wolf Pack go down, but fans of mid-majors in general ended up disappointed this week.

Top 25

As always, my rankings are extremely flexible and account for week-to-week power shifts. I do not consider the BCS rankings when making my top 25; they are so far removed from reality they are effectively irrelevant to any rational discussion.

1) Oregon

“Number one loses, number two becomes number one.” Terry Bowden, those words were never truer. Ohio State’s loss is Oregon’s gain, as the Ducks take the top spot in the rankings for the first time. The Ducks picked a good time to have a bye, as no one else had a big enough win to leapfrog them.

2) Boise State

The Broncos continue to receive divine providence in the form of BCS heavyweights going down, but there’s still a long way to go. Some commentators have predicted that Boise might need all the other contenders to have two losses to get into the title game; that seems extreme to me, but the current BCS standings certainly don’t give the team any reason to be optimistic.

3) Auburn

I’m not sold on Arkansas or South Carolina as anything more than above-average teams, but Auburn has still done enough to this point to warrant a significant jump. Their defense is just awful, though. The Tigers also haven’t yet played anyone with a defense good enough to determine if Auburn’s offense is actually great. Cam Newton has been otherworldly, but the competition he’s faced has been subpar. I just don’t know if Auburn can continue this streak.

4) TCU

TCU has become the forgotten BCS buster as everyone focuses on the clear number one (Boise State) and the plucky upstart (Utah). The Horned Frogs are a very good team, but their single marquee win over Oregon State has now been reduced to throwaway status. They need to start blowing out the best teams in the Mountain West to have any chance at the national championship.

5) Stanford

Stanford doesn’t play and jumps Utah? No it’s not fair, but there are reasons for it. I believe that the “eye test” sufficiently demonstrates that the Cardinal are better than the Utes. Everyone thought Stanford was a top-10 team before the Oregon game – if Oregon is now number one, why is Stanford getting punished in the polls for losing that game?

6) Utah

Utah keeps sliding up in my poll without making a statement against a big-time opponent. But if you’re consistent – which I believe I am – I can’t move Oklahoma ahead of Utah after the Sooners blew out the same Iowa State team that Utah did. That makes no sense. The Utes get Air Force and TCU back-to-back, so the next couple of weeks should provide all the evidence we need to determine if this team is good.

7) Oklahoma

I don’t know what to make of this Sooners team. They’ve won big against a bad team (ISU) and a pretty good one (Florida State), then struggled in every other contest. I certainly think they’re better than Missouri and will win this weekend, but that’s not exactly a glowing endorsement. Unless they can consistently play with the fire they showed against FSU this team is going to get upset.

8) Alabama

What is wrong with the “Bama offense? Specifically, it’s the line and running backs, but don’t forget to apportion the appropriate amount of disgust for the passing game either. Simply put, this team hasn’t looked like itself in a while. Their schedule allows them the luxury of coasting for a couple weeks, but eventually these issues need to get worked out if the Tide want to return to the SEC title game, let alone the national championship.

9) Michigan State

MSU struggled a bit versus Illinois, but it’s fair to say the strain of playing back-to-back ranked teams hurt them a little in the first half. The next two games will essentially decide Sparty’s future: on the road against a sneaky-good Northwestern squad and at Iowa, State must win. A 9-0 start at that point could have this team smelling roses – or possibly, even more.

10) Arizona

Hmm. The Wildcats put down Washington State with little trouble but had to watch quarterback Nick Foles go down with a “knee sprain.” Dennis Dixon, anyone? If Foles really is able to return in a few weeks ‘Zona might still have a shot at the Pac-10 championship, but their schedule is nasty enough that they shouldn’t go unbeaten even with Foles. Games at Stanford and Oregon will be rough, and the Wildcats still have to play a rejuvenated USC and rival Arizona State at home.

11) Iowa

Everything sets up beautifully for the Hawkeyes to win the Big 10 title again. Main contenders Wisconsin, MSU and Ohio State all have to come to Iowa City, which means Iowa can afford a misstep in one of their remaining road games if they just take care of business at home. This is probably the most complete Big 10 team offensively and defensively, and they’ll be a very tough out the rest of the way.

12) Wisconsin

The big win over Ohio State revived the Badgers’ conference title dreams. Now they have to match that performance every week. I still think Wisconsin will be done in again by their inability to throw the ball. They’re just not a good passing team. We’ve seen in recent years that one-dimensional teams can’t rise to elite status because good defenses will shut them down.

13) Ohio State

These guys seem to be the constant underachievers. Blessed year in and year out with nearly unparalleled talent, a gloriously easy schedule and tons of media attention, the Buckeyes can’t get out of their own way. Every year they lose a conference game they shouldn’t, and Jim Tressel’s absurdly conservative philosophy ends up costing them about a game a year as well. With the players they have, OSU should be better.

14) Arkansas

Well, all those preseason fears about the defense have been verified. Again. There’s no doubt Arkansas has a great offense, but their “D” just keeps giving up big play after big play. The fact that the Razorbacks probably have the best backup QB in the country is going to be little consolation for their fans, who watched another winnable game disappear thanks to defensive ineptitude.

15) Florida State

That Boston College win was way too close. The ACC isn’t good enough for FSU to sleepwalk through and expect to get respect. The ‘Noles can really only realistically shoot for the Orange Bowl, but that’s still no reason to get complacent. What surprises me is how well Jimbo Fisher is doing in his first season as head coach. Was Bobby Bowden really holding this team back that much?

16) Nebraska

I hate to say “I told you so…” Well, actually I don’t. Like I said last week, you get a feel for running QB’s after watching enough of them. My gut told me that Taylor Martinez couldn’t throw a pass to save his life, and the Texas game proved that quite nicely. Against good defenses, the Cornhuskers are going to have to significantly adjust their strategy if they hope to contend for the final Big 12 title.

17) LSU

Oh, LSU, LSU. Now that we know the Florida win isn’t worth anything, how can we take this team’s championship hopes seriously? The Tigers are too inept offensively to be a threat to any serious contenders. That’s why this week’s Auburn game is so intriguing. LSU’s bad offense and great defense match up perfectly against Auburn’s terrible “D” and explosive offense. Can they actually win the battle of the Tigers? Tune in and find out.

18) Oklahoma State

What impresses you most about the Cowboys? Their blowout of Washington State? Their three-point win over Texas A&M? Their 17-point win over Texas Tech? You can see what I’m getting at here. Okie State’s schedule gets a lot tougher in upcoming weeks, and I have a distinct feeling that they won’t stay undefeated much longer.

19) Virginia Tech

Tech has ripped off five straight double-digit wins after their disastrous start. Yes, the Hokies are back. To make matters worse for the rest of the ACC, their once-daunting schedule doesn’t seem nearly as intimidating as it did before the season. Another division title and a return to the Orange Bowl is very likely for this squad.

20) South Carolina

Ugh. Blowing a double-digit lead to Kentucky to fall to .500 in the SEC? Come on, Gamecocks. Despite their epic gag job in Lexington, South Carolina is still atop the East Division and absolutely should make their first-ever trip to the conference championship game. They’ve just got to avoid inconsistent play like last Saturday.

21) Missouri

I feel the same way about these guys that I do about Oklahoma State. They haven’t played anyone. Their best win is still over a mediocre Texas A&M team. It’s baffling that the computers have the Tigers ranked so high, something that I’ll talk about later. They’ll get a great chance to prove that they’re any good this week against Oklahoma.

22) West Virginia

The Mountaineers deserve to be back in the rankings after a couple solid wins, but the fact that they’re the class of the Big East is completely embarrassing. I still love Noel Devine, though, and Geno Smith has proved himself to be a solid point man for this offense. As long as WVU stays focused, another BCS bowl should be waiting for them at the end of this year.

23) Oregon State

At 3-3 it looks pretty ridiculous to still have the Beavers ranked. Here’s why they deserve it: they’ve played the nation’s toughest schedule; the Washington loss came after QB Ryan Katz played the worst game of his life and they only lost by one in double overtime; OSU is always a strong second-half team, no one in the Pac-10 wants to play them. That’s reason enough for me.

24) USC

The Trojans looked remarkably good in their thrashing of Cal this week. It remains to be seen USC is back or if that was just because Cal is horrible, but keep in mind that the Trojans get a bye before facing Oregon next weekend. With an upset against the Ducks, the Trojans could announce that they’re not ready to concede the conference to Oregon.

25) Texas

Back in the rankings after their impressive shutdown of Nebraska, the Longhorns need to play better on offense to maintain this status. It will take a long time for that UCLA loss to stop hurting them, but if they can get through their mostly-manageable schedule they can accomplish that.

Pac-10 Thoughts

Cal has officially taken over the “Jekyll and Hyde” mantle from UCLA. A week after dismantling the Bruins by four touchdowns, the Bears looked about as horrible as a team can, falling behind 45-0 at USC. Nobody can be sure what Cal team is going to show up week to week, which has become an ugly trend under head coach Jeff Tedford. Most of their problems appear to come on the road, where they’ve lost all three games by an average of more than 18 points.

Washington probably saved their season with the Oregon State win this week. At 3-3, they still need to win half their remaining games to reach bowl eligibility, which would have been nearly impossible without the OSU win. With only two home games left, one of which is against Stanford, UW will likely have to beat at least one ranked opponent on the road to get to six wins. The problem? Those teams are Oregon and Arizona.

Just when you thought Oregon State had begun their annual post-September upswing, the Beavers went ahead and bumbled away a winnable game against the Huskies. Of course, OSU usually loses a Pac-10 game they shouldn’t, but this one was still surprising because of how good they looked the week before. However, the Beavs now get the perfect remedy to any team’s ills – Cal! At home! Off a bye week! You can pencil that “W” in now.

Heisman Watch

It’s so hard to predict how the Heisman race will turn out, and I’m on the record as saying that the award is, in general, a sham. The best player in the country is almost never a running back or QB, but that’s what almost all of the Heisman winners have been. Linemen and defensive players are total afterthoughts, but do just as much work as the glory positions. The low-profile guys get shafted every year.

With that being said… I am subject to the same biases as everyone else, thus I grade Heisman contenders in the same way most voters do. Skill position players dominate the board. My first Heisman list looks like this:

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Newton’s been truly remarkable so far. He’s become the player we all thought Denard Robinson was. However, he hasn’t played a single above-average defense to date… with LSU in town this week, we’ll have to watch closely to see what he does. Taylor Martinez was completely exposed against Texas; will Newton share the same fate?

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

His deadly speed and vision have made him the leading rusher in the country, but James’ underrated toughness and durability have also been key to his success. If the Ducks keep rolling as they have been, his stock will continue to rise.

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Big, fairly mobile, poised, and accurate, Luck is easily the most NFL-ready player in this year’s class. He threw a couple bad balls at Oregon, but that’s about it as far as his shortcomings. He’s the perfect leader for Stanford’s style of play, and a high Pac-10 finish should secure him at least an invite to the Heisman ceremony.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Moore has been exceptional the last few seasons, but his success is now actually hurting him, as he never needs to be on the field in the fourth quarter. He’s a very good player, but his competition (or lack thereof) will hurt him along with his team. Still, not many teams would repeat the mistake of not recruiting him.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Like a cool autumn breeze, the new BCS rankings wash over us every season, blessing us with their clarity and insight. Unfortunately, that breeze is composed mainly of bizarrely complex math, regionally-biased writers, and senile old coaches who never watch a game. I think there's some dead puppies and broken dreams worked into the formula too. Year after year, the BCS never fails to disappoint the nation, rarely producing a consensus national title game (it's only happened three times in 12 years: Miami (FL) - Ohio State in 2002, USC - Texas in 2005 and Texas - Alabama in 2009). Working right a quarter of the time! That's the BCS way!

Nearly every year someone gets left out. In 1998, one-loss Florida State edged out fellow one-loss teams Ohio State, Kansas State and Arizona despite having the loss to the worst team. In 1999 it was Nebraska getting the shaft (while the Cornhuskers had a loss, undefeated Virginia Tech played a much easier schedule). 2000 saw Miami (FL) left out in favor of FSU, even though the teams had the same record and the Hurricanes beat the Seminoles in the regular season.

In 2001 it was Oregon, who missed the championship game for a Nebraska team who hadn't even won their own division. 2003 was the infamous USC debacle, when the Trojans were number one in both polls but third in the BCS and had to settle for a split title. In 2004 we had a complete, as Fantastic Mr. Fox would say, clustercuss, with five undefeated teams (USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, Utah and Boise State).

In 2006 Boise State was the nation's only undefeated team but watched as Florida hammered Ohio State for the national title. 2007 was a crazy year in which Hawaii went unbeaten but no one thought they were worthy of playing for the championship, so one-loss Ohio State and two-loss LSU beat out two-loss USC in the BCS. Finally, there was 2008, when Oklahoma won the Big 12 South over Texas despite losing to the Longhorns and possessing the same record.

The incompetence of this system is mind-boggling, yet BCS supporters still stubbornly insist that the "controversy is good for the sport." This assertion has been ripped apart by intelligent analysts from coast to coast, so I have no need to even address it. I'll just examine the current rankings to see what's gotten messed up this time.

First, there's Oklahoma. I have no problem with Oregon not being number one, given the Ducks current schedule weakness. But why Oklahoma? Moreover, why does the BCS continue to have such a love affair with the Big 12? I cannot fathom how the Sooners' wins over Utah State, Air Force, Cincinnati and Iowa State make them deserving of the top computer ranking. But Missouri is also ranked way too high. Here are the six computer rankings for the Tigers: 2, 5, 5, 6, 9, unranked. Their schedule is one of the weakest in the country! This makes no sense!

How about LSU? Anyone who has watched them play would agree that the Tigers have major issues. But not so in the virtual world, where all that matters is wins and losses! LSU is second overall in the computer rankings, and first in two of them. They don't have a single decent offensive player!

There are other issues. TCU is fifth in the computer rankings, ahead of number seven Boise State. But Boise has actually played a harder schedule to this point. Stanford is ranked ahead of Oregon in one computer, even though the Cardinal lost to the Ducks by three touchdowns. Ken Massey must love Big 12 teams, as his formula has five of them in the top 15, including Texas and Kansas State ahead of Alabama.

In the interest of fairness, though, it is worth noting that the computers got one thing right - Arizona is ranked above Iowa.

As I write this post, the Pac-10 is concluding its press conference to announce how the new Pac-12 divisions will be split. The rumored North-South split has become a reality, with Cal and Stanford in the North and newcomers Utah and Colorado in the South. This model makes much less sense than the one I linked to a couple weeks ago and completely screws over the Northwest schools, but at least there will be equal revenue sharing.

What’s so baffling about the North-South split is how much was given to Colorado and Utah. It’s rumored that the Buffaloes demanded to be in the same division as the L.A. schools. What?! Why was Colorado allowed to make demands? They’re the newcomers. They should be grateful to even be in the new league, not deciding how to divide up teams who have played each other for decades!

But no matter. We all know the whole idea was to generate more revenue with a conference championship game, and that’s what we’ll get. It’s too bad it came at the expense of long-standing rivalries that had defined the conference.

Next week: the SEC race becomes clearer, the Pac-10 gets crazier, and Les Miles does something inexplicably stupid.

Halfway Home

National Overview

Who could have predicted the nation’s number one team losing would make things more confusing? Unfortunately, it did. The pundits are already trying to figure out exactly how Alabama can climb back into the championship game. The SEC West has been thrown into a complete muddle and the Big 12 schools have suddenly been awarded renewed respect for some reason. The voters seem to have already written off the mid-majors, as TCU has been jumped in the Coaches’ Poll and Utah fell in the AP, despite the fact that both teams won Saturday. Boise State regained its number three ranking, but only because the Crimson Tide went down.

I was honestly surprised to see the voters display as much guts as they did in dropping ‘Bama all the way to eighth. I thought that last year’s results and the notion of “the unbeatable Tide” might buoy Alabama to a higher ranking than they deserved. Instead, there was ‘Bama, sitting below most of the undefeateds, right where they belong. I have no problem with the Tide being higher than LSU, because no sane person who has seen the Tigers play this year would say they’re a top 10 team.

The issues, of course, arise when you try to qualify where other teams should be ranked in relation to Alabama. Why is South Carolina’s 4-1 record less impressive than the Tide’s 5-1 record when the Gamecocks just beat ‘Bama head-to-head? The same applies for Iowa and Arizona, who are both 4-1. The Wildcats beat the Hawkeyes, yet Iowa is ranked higher. Florida still sits at number 22 even though they haven’t beaten anyone of note, while Oregon State is 29^th in the Coaches’ Poll despite playing the toughest schedule in the nation to this point and coming out with the same number of losses as the Gators.

Trying to make sense of the various polls is maddening, but I do appreciate some of the voters’ tendencies. For one, moving a team over another because the first team beat the second is a decent, but imperfect, way to make rankings. In the case of Arizona-Iowa it works, as the two schools have played the same number of games and Arizona beat Iowa. Alabama-South Carolina is a little tougher, because the Tide have played one more game, a tougher schedule, and also already beat a currently ranked team. It was also obvious during last week’s contest that the Gamecocks played a near-perfect game and Alabama played poorly. That wasn’t the case earlier this year in Tucson, when the Wildcats were clearly better than the Hawkeyes.

Of course, that point might be moot if Arizona keeps playing like they did against Oregon State… but more on that later. Other teams that underachieved last week included Miami (FL), Michigan, USC, Northwestern, and Penn State. Les Miles also continued his baffling lucky streak (although that’s par for the course by now). I have no idea what’s wrong with the Hurricanes, but it seems that they, along with PSU, Texas, and Florida, were overrated to start the year.

Top 25

I had a hard time making all my choices this week. I had to go against my usual philosophy by jumping teams from outside the rankings to inside the top 20, and I had to move up teams who played badly and still won. I expound on my selections below.

1) Ohio State

After looking shaky against Illinois, the Buckeyes stepped up and swatted Indiana the way an elite team should. Terrelle Pryor has begun to improve, but anyone who thinks he’s a complete quarterback at this point is fooling him or herself. The OSU defense is solid, but each time I watch this team I’m struck by how average their backs and receivers are. They deserve the top spot for now, though.

2) Oregon

The Ducks almost did enough to drop back behind Boise State in their lethargic performance against WSU. I’m comfortable leaving Oregon here, and fortunately for the Ducks BSU won’t get any credit for beating San Jose State this weekend. This team has to do something about their slow starts or they’ll be in for a nasty upset at some point.

3) Boise State

The Broncos will likely be the top team when the initial BCS standings are released this Sunday, but that’s about it for the good news Boise will receive the rest of the season. Despite their decision to rank the Broncos third in the preseason polls, the voters have clearly already decided to punish the team for their schedule – even BSU hasn’t even played their easiest games yet. Boise needs a few more upsets like the Alabama one to get a sniff at the national title.

4) TCU

TCU has been under the radar for a while now, so you’d be forgiven for thinking the Horned Frogs had suffered a loss and you just missed it. The vibe around this team is weird; although they haven’t been seriously challenged since their opener, they just don’t feel like a great team. We’ll have to wait and see with TCU.

5) Nebraska

Yes, the Cornhuskers looked great against K-State. But it’s clear at this point that the Wildcats are average at best. And I’m sorry, but Nebraska is playing a glorified wide receiver at QB. When he can throw more than seven passes and carry the team that way, I’ll consider bumping these guys past TCU.

6) Utah

Sure, it was only Iowa State, but that blowout was better than the bye Oklahoma got. I doubt very much that the Utes are the nation’s sixth-best team, but why should the Sooners be rewarded for getting a week off? It’s that kind of thinking that makes the polls archaic and frustrating.

7) Stanford

Let’s be clear – Stanford is better than Utah. But given the Cardinal’s recent defensive struggles – and their blemished record – they don’t deserve that recognition yet. I was surprised how bad Stanford looked against USC. But Andrew Luck is absolutely the real deal. He’s the best QB in the country.

8) Oklahoma

I was already annoyed with the Sooners’ close wins over inferior teams, so I’m more than happy to move them down until they prove themselves a little more. The thing is, their upcoming schedule doesn’t offer them a lot of chances to do so. OU should be favored in every game from here on out.

9) Auburn

Ooh, that was close. Auburn played terrible in the second half at Kentucky, but managed to pull out a victory. Cam Newton is still putting up unreal stats, but I wonder if he’s getting a bit of a Denard Robinson-type boost against weak competition. In any case, the Tigers play Arkansas and LSU the next two weeks, so I doubt they stay undefeated for much longer.

10) South Carolina

Which is the real South Carolina team, the one that smashed Alabama or the one that lost to Auburn? I’d say they’re about midway between the two. If this is to be their year, though, the Gamecocks will need to take care of business in their division in the coming weeks. Otherwise, it will be just another wasted season for this program.

11) Alabama

Alabama is almost certainly better than number 11, but they just lost. I can’t in good conscience put them ahead of the South Carolina team that clobbered them last week. Later in the season, with more results to work with, that may change. For now, they can stew outside the top 10.

12) Arkansas

Arkansas lost to Alabama, who lost to South Carolina… you get the idea. That isn’t always the most advisable way to rank teams, but for those three it works right now because they all have one loss. But is Arkansas a fraud or for real? The defense looked suspect late against ‘Bama, and the team barely beat an average Texas A&M squad last week. We’ll get a good answer this week versus Auburn.

13) Michigan State

It’s possible that Sparty is just another mid-level Big 10 team who hasn’t faced a quality opponent yet (yes, that includes Wisconsin and Michigan). At the same time, they do have the feel of one of those storybook teams, complete with close finishes and wild headlines (head coach has heart attack, etc.).With no Ohio State on the schedule, Michigan State could be in for a special year.

14) Arizona

Ouch. Just when Wildcat fans thought their team had finally joined the nation’s top teams, they were brought back to earth by one of the Pac-10’s elite. That’s realistically what Oregon State is, so Arizona needn’t despair over the loss. At the same time, though, last week’s game had better serve as a wake-up call if ‘Zona is going to come anywhere near their first Rose Bowl.

15) Iowa

Iowa is still an unproven commodity two weeks into October. The Hawkeyes lost to the best team they played (Arizona) and won’t face another team with their overall talent level for a while. They’re definitely a Big 10 contender, but there’s been no indication to this point as to whether this squad is good, great, or elite.

16) Nevada

I feel, deep down, that Nevada will fall apart somewhere along the line. They’re not talented enough or deep enough to go 12-0 or play in a BCS bowl. But on a single-game basis, the Wolf Pack are very tough to stop, as Cal found out a few weeks ago. If these guys can avoid a bad performance here or there, they should win most of their games.

17) Oregon State

I know I said OSU is one of the Pac-10’s elite. But two things work against the Beavers, at least for now. First, although they played a tough schedule, they did lose twice. Second, while they hung on to beat Arizona, the Wildcats were clearly the team with more momentum at game’s end, which was a direct result of the Beavers’ devastating loss of James Rodgers. I’ll talk more about OSU in the Pac-10 section.

18) Florida State

The Oklahoma game is looking more and more like an aberration – for both schools. FSU has played much better in the last few weeks, and it appears that OU just had a really good day. Saturday’s obliteration of Miami (FL) was way more impressive than Ohio State’s victory over the same team earlier in the season, and for the Seminoles it served as a supplanting of the Hurricanes as the ACC’s top team.

19) LSU

I can give the Tigers a little credit for going to the Swamp and knocking off Florida, but as everyone saw, the Gators have fallen way off. Once again, LSU got the benefit of a questionable play call and sheer dumb luck to win a game – history has shown that teams who win this way are destined to get their comeuppance.

20) Air Force

I continue to have a love affair with the Falcons (it’s got to be that triple option), and they get one final tune-up before their clashes with TCU and Utah to end the month. I think Air Force can realistically go 1-1 in those contests, even though they’re clearly the inferior team talent-wise in both matchups.

21) Wisconsin

It’s the moment of truth for the Badgers. A tissue-soft nonconference slate didn’t exactly prepare them for their Big 10 opener, and they rebounded last week only because they got Minnesota. With the number one team in the country in town, Wisconsin has a chance to make believers out of everyone again – or they might just prove once and for all how overrated they are.

22) Oklahoma State

They’ve really played absolutely no one, but down here in the rankings the choices start to get a little meager. The Cowboys have managed to stay undefeated, though they’re probably in for a shootout this week versus Texas Tech. At some point, though, you have to expect this team to get pushed around by someone, whether it’s Nebraska in a couple of weeks or rival Oklahoma at season’s end.

23) Virginia Tech

How things change. Two weeks into the 2010 season Tech was a joke. Now the Hokies have rebounded, reasserted themselves as kings of the Coastal division, and gotten heaps of praise for sticking together through such a rough patch. If they don’t start readings their press clippings, Tech could make the kind of run they were predicted to make through the weak ACC.

24) North Carolina State

Despite their loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago I still have faith that the Wolfpack can be players in the conference race. It’ll take the best of Russell Wilson (and more than likely an upset of Florida State) but there’s no doubt in my mind that this team can pull it off. The end of the year is going to be crucial, as NCSU gets five consecutive conference opponents without a bye in sight.

25) Florida

I’m going to give the Gators one last chance. Unlike the situation with Texas – a school with similar talent and a disappointing record – we know that Florida is well-coached. Urban Meyer has made some of the most curious decision of his career this year, so it will be most interesting to see if he can adjust to not always fielding a team of all-stars.

Pac-10 Thoughts

The single biggest play of the Pac-10 season so far occurred in the Arizona-OSU game, when Wildcats’ safety Adam Hall contributed to Beaver receiver Rodgers’ blown knee. I don’t think it was a dirty play at all – Hall appeared to be attempting to break up the pass – but that’s not even very important anyway. What is important is where Oregon State goes from here.

OSU has made a habit of adapting unusually well to adversity in the past, but this is a somewhat different scenario. I specifically mentioned before the season that the Beavers had had mind-blowingly good luck with injuries in 2009, and that this kind of fortune tends to even out the next season. Well, there you go. Despite assurances within the program that the rest of the receivers will step up, there’s just no getting around the fact that Rodgers is the best receiver in the Pac-10 and one of the best in the nation. He is a perfect fit for the Beavers’ offense, and no one player (or combination of players) will scare defenses the way he did.

Had OSU not lost Rodgers, I would be prepared to put them first on the list of contenders to dethrone Oregon. Now, it’s a lot harder to make that call. The Beavers should still be a major player, and 6-3 or 7-2 in conference play sounds about right. But at some point, not having an elite playmaker at that position will cost the team. It’s a shame, though Rodgers will likely receive a redshirt year for medical hardship.

Oregon also suffered a scary injury in a less-than-inspiring win over Washington State. Fortunately, Kenjon Barner seems to be all right after the massive headshot that left him with a concussion, but it’s hard to say what his role will be the rest of the year. You never know how long it will take for a player to rebound mentally and physically. More on concussions later.

I was also surprised to see Cal handle UCLA so easily, although by now we should probably be used to the Bruins’ Jekyll-and-Hyde routine. Let’s see – loss to average Kansas State, shutout by Stanford, upset top-25 Houston and top-10 Texas, then a near-loss to a bad WSU team before the debacle at Cal. UCLA is going to have to up their game in the second half of the year – check out the murderer’s row they face: three straight ranked opponents, including at Oregon; back-to-back road games against Washington and ASU, then rival USC.

Stanford was also sluggish, and it appears the Cardinal defense was a little overhyped. I still consider them the biggest threat to beat out the Ducks (if they get some help from other teams), but they can’t win every game in a shootout. Remember what OSU’s Jacquizz Rodgers did to them last year? It wasn’t pretty. Having the best quarterback in the country on your side is a nice ace in the hole, but they can’t rely on Andrew Luck to beat everyone.

After watching ASU fight hard and lose to both Oregon schools and then take out their frustrations on Washington, it was clear to me that the Sun Devils are at least a player in the Pac-10 race. They don’t have a shot to win it, but they’ll make every team they play uncomfortable and probably get an upset or two (I’m looking at you, Arizona). ASU is much improved.

You know who else is improved? Oh yes. It’s Wazzu. The conference’s punching bag the past few seasons has gotten off the mat. I watched both of their last two games, and while they were clearly outclassed versus Oregon, they could have beaten UCLA. I almost called for it this summer, but didn’t have the guts; now I will: WSU will win a Pac-10 game this season. Jeff Tuel is a solid QB, they’ve got a nice running back in James Montgomery, and most importantly, the team is starting to believe. Just look at the way the Cougars are talking in the media. They no longer fear any of their opponents.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Kenjon Barner’s incident got me thinking about how head injuries are treated in football. One of my favorite writers, Gregg Easterbrook of ESPN.com, has written extensively in his columns about the horrible attitude that’s been taken toward head trauma in the sport of football. I completely agree and feel obliged to offer my thoughts on the subject.

Concussions have historically been treated very poorly in all sports, but especially in the tough-guy culture of the football world, where players are laughingly told to “shake off” the effects of “getting their bell rung.”

Shake it off? We’re talking possible brain damage here. If you want to know why so many old NFL players are suddenly dropping dead at age 50, look no further. The league has long taken a dismissive attitude toward head trauma in its sport, which trickles down to every level. Last year, Florida’s Tim Tebow returned to play just two weeks after sustaining this massive blow, despite most experts outside the sport opining that such an injury required no less than a month without contact for full recovery.

If the NFL won’t take the lead on this issue, then it has to be college staffs. That’s why I was so happy to see Mike Riley’s reaction after OSU’s Rodgers suffered a blow to the head (this one was dirty, by the way) against Boise State: he simply had the trainers take Rodgers’ helmet away from him. The message was clear: I value my player’s safety over winning. If coaches don’t take the lead like this, nothing in the sport will change.

In lighter news, I hate to give the impression that I’m “hating” on running QB’s. But there’s a legitimate reason for it. After so many years of watching this sport, you can start to tell when a signal-caller is really a playmaker – a la Vince Young, Pat White, and Dennis Dixon – or if he’s just a product of his system and team.

I’m leaving Denard Robinson out of this discussion for now, though his performance against Michigan State indicated that he’s got a lot of room for growth. His stats were clearly inflated by playing bad competition, but I think it’s fair to wait and see before judging Robinson too harshly. The same cannot be said of a few other players.

I’ve mentioned several times that I don’t see Terrelle Pryor as a complete QB. Why? Well, he can’t consistently mix accurate passes with his terrifying scrambling ability. Yes, he can get on a hot streak, but what Pryor does most consistently, game-to-game, is over- and under-throw receivers, despite fantastic pass protection. Pryor is almost never touched, yet his statistics are no more impressive than those of Oregon’s Darron Thomas. Now, I like Thomas, but he’s got a long way to go before he’s a complete player too.

Tyrod Taylor is another example, though readers will remember that I regularly save my most scathing criticism of the Tech QB. If you read my “Pryor analysis” (that’s a terrible joke, though unintentional), you’ll find that much of it also applies to Taylor. He runs around a lot and makes some plays, but he also hurts his team by trying to do too much himself and doesn’t read defenses as well as a senior QB should.

But despair no more, Taylor fans! I’ve found a new target of ridicule in the so-called “mobile QB” category. It’s Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez, he of the comically low seven passes attempted last week against Kansas State!

Now, every football fan knows that there are times when you simply don’t need to pass the ball. However, as an informed fan, you should know immediately that something is fishy when the alleged “star QB” of a team attempts just seven passes in a game. Not completes – attempts.

Compare this figure to Michigan’s Robinson. Even in his most dominant rushing efforts, he still threw the ball 15-20 times a game for a respectable completion percentage. In Oregon’s win over WSU, the Ducks passed the ball 30 times. 30! And they weren’t running up the score.

Against K-State, I saw Martinez do the same thing on almost every play: read-option fake, keep for big yards. The Nebraska players blocked well, it’s true. But Martinez was uncovered on almost every play, as each Cornhuskers found a man to block one-on-one to spring their QB into the secondary. What’s impressive about running past engaged defenders? The Wildcats never adjusted, which means play-action passes would have been deadly. The fact that Nebraska never even attempted this strategy is most damning evidence I can provide. It indicates that no one on the ‘Husker staff has any confidence that Martinez can make a defense pay with his arm. When he finally comes up against a defense that defends the run well (which could be a while the Big 12 North), he’s toast.

Short notes: a recent ESPN study concluded that shotgun-based offenses (Spread, Pistol, Run and Shoot) now comprise over 40 percent of FBS offenses. Tell me again that the shotgun is a gimmick… Maybe teams should stop giving Oregon’s Cliff Harris the ball – in 19 touches this season, Harris has recorded three punt return touchdowns and four interceptions, one for a score… As of this writing, former agent Josh Luchs had just revealed paying dozens of players while they were in school. This behavior goes on at (probably) every program, yet every time it’s revealed commentators act shocked. Maybe they should walk onto a college campus again - have you seen the cars these “amateur” athletes drive?…The Big East got back into the rankings this week after two humiliating weeks with no teams when West Virginia appeared at number 25. Let’s hope for the league’s sake the Mountaineers can hold off South Florida on Thursday night, or this could be the worst BCS conference we’ve ever seen…Congratulations to Terrance Cain of Utah, who last week became the last starting QB without an interception thrown this season... My initial Heisman rankings will come out next week.