October, Take 1

National Overview

What a fun week. Five top-25 showdowns, some great setups for the future in the Big 10, and a few monster performances by Heisman candidates. The big games went largely as I expected: Alabama smashed Florida, Oklahoma beat Texas, Iowa dominated Penn State, and Oregon knocked off Stanford. The only big game I guessed wrong was Michigan State – Wisconsin.

Still, there was some intrigue in how each of the winners got there. Oklahoma, in particular, seems to be hanging on by a thread. The Sooners have let their past three opponents hang around way too long and needed muffed punts in the last two contests to put things away for good.

Penn State was revealed to be pretty much what everyone thought they were – a decent team with a good defense that can’t score nearly enough to be considered great, let alone elite. Starting a true freshman at quarterback is always iffy. The same goes for Wisconsin – I said last week that we’ve seen this kind of Badgers team before, and I was absolutely right. Wisconsin hasn’t had even an average QB for years and it continues to cost them.

Oregon’s come-from-behind victory over Stanford was impressive, but the Ducks continued a couple of trends that could cost them later in the year; namely, falling behind early and playing too fast and loose with the football. That said, Oregon appears to be the fastest team in the nation and if they can put together a full game (against good competition), look out.

Not much needs to be said about ‘Bama, who routed Florida in a lopsided affair. What more do you want? The Gators were clearly overrated to begin the season, but the Crimson Tide are just really good too.

The BCS busters unsurprisingly continued their run against overmatched foes. TCU and Boise State demolished their opponents 27-0 and 59-0, respectively, while Utah got a bye. At this rate, it’s fair to start asking what will happen when, not if, BSU and TCU/Utah (the Horned Frogs and Utes play each other) go undefeated. I think the Mountain West champ will probably get the nod over the WAC champ, but we’ve got a lot of season left.

I won’t release a Heisman watch list for another week or so, but I have to give Michigan’s Denard Robinson some love. Sure, it’s been against average competition, but what he’s accomplished thus far has been simply astounding. He won’t do it, but at his current pace, Robinson would finish the 2010 season with around 2,500 yards passing and 16 touchdowns in addition to more than 2,000 yards rushing and another 17 TD’s on the ground. With two interceptions. Wow.

Top 25

1) Alabama

Yeah, that pretty much ended all discussion as to who should be ranked first. Florida has a mediocre offense, yes. But Alabama has a solid defense, and it did what good defenses do – hold the opposing offense out of the end zone. On offense, the Tide are physical like no one but Stanford.

2) Ohio State

Ugly win over Illinois, but I’m not quite ready to drop the Buckeyes out of the number two spot. It’s close, though. Another bad win, combined with blowouts by their peers, will cost OSU. Terrelle Pryor’s injury is not a good enough excuse.

3) Oregon

Facing a massive hole just 15 minutes into the game, Oregon responded in powerful fashion against the Cardinal. As always, these rankings can change each week, but for now the Ducks have done enough to jump Boise State.

4) Boise State

That noise you heard over the weekend was the collective groan emitted by Broncos fans when they saw the new polls. Everyone knew Boise’s schedule would end up hurting them at some point; it’s just that it wasn’t expected to be so soon. Now BSU has to pray for the top teams to lose.

5) TCU

The Horned Frogs’ four-TD victory over Colorado State was a little underwhelming, but they still got the shutout. They shouldn’t move down or up, as they took care of business essentially as expected. I’m excited to see them play the meat of their Mountain West schedule.

6) Nebraska

Unlike most actual voters, I will absolutely jump an idle team. However, this week the Cornhuskers got lucky because there was no one worthy of passing them. They’ll get a chance very soon to prove themselves – on the road at also-undefeated Kansas State this Thursday.

7) Oklahoma

But wait, you say. Oklahoma nearly blew their game with Texas and has been underwhelming for three straight weeks. How can they move up? Well, see what I said about Nebraska. The only teams I would consider moving ahead of them didn’t play. So the Sooners survive for another week.

8) Utah

Moved up by default after not playing. It should still be a while before the Utes are seriously challenged.

9) Arizona

See number eight. However, the Wildcats will get a very interesting test this week in Oregon State.

10) Stanford

Stanford jumped out to an unheard-of 21-3 lead at Autzen and looked unstoppable. But then Oregon responded, and the supposedly big, nasty Cardinal didn’t. It was actually a little shocking. That said, Stanford is still very good and should prove it this week by beating USC again.

11) Auburn

I just can’t reward a team very much for beating an FCS opponent in October. It’s bad enough that so many teams play these free-win games, but at least get them out of the way in the first month of the season. There still aren’t many 5-0 teams, though, so until they trip up they’ll hang around the top 10.

12) Arkansas

Moving a team up off a bye kills me… but once again, no one else deserves the spot.

13) Miami (FL)

A good win against a decent Clemson team. Jacory Harris is throwing way too many bad balls, but right now the Hurricanes just need to gut out some victories until the offense and defense both get stabilized. As I said before, a run at the ACC title is still well within reach.

14) Iowa

Iowa’s win over Penn State wasn’t unexpected, but it solidified the Hawkeyes as the clear number two team in the Big 10. Defense has won games for Iowa the past few years, so there’s not really a reason they need to change things up. But the big question is still whether they can get over the hump and win the conference. I don’t have faith in Ricky Stanzi.

15) Michigan State

I had to get the Spartans up here next to the Wolverines before their big showdown this Saturday. To the winner goes, unfortunately, just a single “W.” Both Michigan State and Michigan still have to face a number of good opponents in conference play, so obviously this week’s game is pretty important.

16) Michigan

Based on Michigan State’s win over Wisconsin I had to give the Spartans the nod over Michigan, but the two teams are very evenly matched. It’ll be a fun game to watch this week; I think MSU is better overall and their defense should slow Michigan a little. Can Denard Robinson carve up a real defense? Tune in and find out.

17) South Carolina

Idle and uninteresting. The SEC East has started to look really bad, so the Gamecocks have to step up if they don’t want to get left behind by other teams in the polls.

18) Florida

Well, that was enlightening. The Gator’s offensive issues are mind-boggling considering who their coach is. Everyone assumed Florida could just reload after back-to-back great seasons; obviously they were wrong. As I said, though, the division is so weak it might not matter.

19) Wisconsin

The Badgers were definitely overrated as well. I feel for Wisconsin, because I kind of saw this coming, but seriously, how difficult is it to get a single good QB? Until they can solve this problem Wisconsin is never going to contend in the Big 10 again.

20) Nevada

The opponents haven’t really been impressive, but Nevada keeps moving up thanks to their own consistency and the general ineptitude around them. You gotta love the original Pistol, but the attention given to the imitators is getting a bit annoying. Nevada should be 10-0 by the time that Boise State game rolls around.

21) Air Force

I’m loving Air Force right now. They’ve supplanted Navy as the service academy to watch, as seen by the Falcons’ 14-6 victory over the Midshipmen last week. If Air Force can upset TCU or Utah, who knows how the Mountain West might shake out.

22) LSU

Dear God. I’m not sure how LSU keeps winning games, or Les Miles still has his job, but it’s comforting to know that Tigers fans aren’t fooled. Despite a great defense, there’s just no hiding the fact that this offense is disgrace. There’s more on Miles’ incredible ineptitude coming up.

23) Kansas State

The Wildcats’ win over UCLA looks a lot more impressive now. With the Big 12 North in shambles, a single big upset over Nebraska could mean great things. K-State got a little rest this week, which they’ll need once the Huskers roll into Manhattan. This is shaping up to be an important contest, which no one would have predicted at the beginning of the year.

24) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys got the win versus Texas A&M, but the game exposed their flaws a lot more than it showed off their strengths. A good QB can tear apart the OSU secondary and the supposedly unstoppable offense can be stopped cold at times. Still, they’re a more complete team than many others across the country.

25) Northwestern

I always want to root for the academic schools, and the Wildcats’ win over Minnesota this week was thrilling. But let’s be honest – once the real schedule kicks in it’s unlikely they’ll stay undefeated. Enjoy it while it lasts, which is probably two more weeks, until the team plays Michigan State.

Pac-10 Thoughts

Oregon State appeared to save their season by beating Arizona State this past week. The Beavers’ habit of starting a season slow and finishing strong has been well-documented, but is probably a little overrated too. While OSU’s ability to regroup after tough losses has been impressive, the truth is that – with the exception of USC – the majority of the Beavers’ best opponents in the past several seasons have come earlier in the year. Losing early and winning late is just logical for a team that plays its tougher opponents first.

With that in mind, we’ll be able to take a lot from this week’s game at Arizona. Can OSU rebound from facing those two brutal non-conference foes and be a Pac-10 player, or are they simply not as good this year? Arizona has been very impressive thus far, and the ‘Zona Zoo is one of the hardest places to play in the conference.

Oregon’s offense was supposed to overwhelm Stanford’s defense, which it did. Stanford’s offense did the same… for about a quarter and a half. But what happened to the Cardinal after that? Sure, the Ducks adjusted to counter Stanford’s strategy of power runs and short/play-action passes, but why didn’t Stanford adjust as well? Once it became clear there was no stopping the Ducks’ offense, Stanford seemed to panic and overreacted by throwing deep and abandoning the running game, even though their original game plan could still have gotten them the victory.

Then there’s USC. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Despite their troubling losses last year, most people assumed the Trojans could still be a Pac-10 power until they recovered from the NCAA sanctions. We all thought wrong. SC certainly has a good deal of talent left on the roster, but it’s clear that those halcyon days are gone for good. USC had lost before, but last Saturday’s choke job against Washington confirmed a most horrifying reality for the Trojans: they are no longer feared. Once on a 47-1 streak at home, they have now lost three of their last five at the Coliseum. They’ve got one more chance, versus Stanford this week, to redeem themselves.

Random Thoughts and Observations

What is the deal with Vontaze Burfict? The sophomore from Arizona State has been known as a hothead ever since he came into the league, but he’s taken things to a new level this season. After costing his team with several personal fouls last year (including three in one half against Washington) Burfict threw a near-punch in the 2010 opener against Portland State and led the Sun Devils’ fake injury charge against Oregon by going down an unofficial seven times – only to return to the field within two plays.

This weekend was his masterpiece, as he repeatedly dealt slaps to the faces of Oregon State players and even delivered a post-play headbutt to QB Ryan Katz that unbelievably didn’t get him ejected (YouTube has a collection of these plays). It’s amazing that Burfict has lived on the edge so long and not been suspended by the Pac-10. If he keeps it up, the league will eventually have no choice.

Every analyst in the country has blasted Les Miles this week, so I might as well get my two cents in. Quite frankly, it’s astonishing that Miles is still the head coach at LSU. The guy has no idea how to run a football team or manage a game. He was crowned the luckiest coach to ever win a national championship when his Tigers slipped into the title game in 2007 thanks to top-ranked Missouri and second-ranked West Virginia both losing on the final weekend of the season. But his late-game management alone should have already gotten Miles canned.

There was the inexplicable decision to throw to the endzone against Auburn in 2007 when an easy field goal would have won the game, though LSU escaped when their receiver made the catch with just one second left on the clock. Then there was the disastrous showing at home last year against Mississippi State, when an awful Bulldogs team unluckily failed to make the go-ahead score in the final seconds despite having four attempts from the Tigers’ one yard line. Also in 2009 was the utterly insane sequence at the end of the Ole Miss game, when LSU failed to call a play with 28 seconds left, then spiked the ball (at Miles’ instructions, no less) with no time left.

But after all those gaffes, you’d think the LSU staff would have learned that Miles is not to be trusted to make even the most basic, high-school level decisions. Well, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice… just watch.

It’s pathetic. How can a major college football coach be this inept? It doesn’t seem possible. Miles makes $4 million a season. I mean, are you kidding? And it’s not just the horrible game management – Miles has also failed to put together anything resembling a BCS-conference caliber offense despite pulling in top 25 recruiting classes every year. He can’t articulate a single clear thought about why he makes the decisions he does after games and looks as lost as if he just wandered onto the field. The fact that he is still employed boggles the mind.

Another big assumption everyone made before the season was that the SEC would continue to be the best conference in the country. The league has been the best for the past few years, though usually by a much smaller margin than their rabid fans would have everyone believe. However, anyone who knows football at all knows that such things are cyclical; the Big 10 was long considered the best conference until falling apart for a few years. Now the Big 10 is on the rise and the SEC is unquestionably on the decline.

Far from being dominant, the SEC in 2010 has actually appeared to be much closer to a one-team league than any other (except for perhaps the WAC). Florida was overrated. Georgia was overrated. LSU was overrated. The Eastern division went a stunning 0-5 last weekend, with the Gators getting blown out by Alabama, Tennessee blowing what should have been a win over LSU, Kentucky losing to hapless Ole Miss, Vanderbilt falling to Connecticut, and Georgia dropping to 1-4 after a shocking loss to Colorado (South Carolina didn’t play).

Alabama has been as good as advertised and Auburn has been impressive, but we still don’t know about Arkansas, LSU is a mess, and the Mississippi schools are unsurprisingly awful. Add to the mix the fact that the SEC continues to be a weak-scheduling league, and we could see a large power shift in college football in the next few years. The perception that the SEC is no longer as dominant could be huge.

I need to make note of a couple of websites I’ve been using recently. The first is a fantastic resource for fans who want to see how all the conferences stack up against each other over the last decade. For the record, Pac-10 fans, the Pac-10 has the best record of any conference in nonleague play. The Big 12 is the only league with a winning record against the Pac-10, and it’s a narrow one at 32-31. The Pac-10 is 10-8 against the ACC; 39-27 against the Big 10; 12-8 against the Big East, and 12-9 against the SEC (the SEC is the second best conference, with losing records against only the Pac-10 and Big East).

The second site is a great proposal for dividing the new Pac-12 by (as far as I know) just another blogger. He/she combines elements of both the leading proposals (“North/South” and “Zipper”) to make a very tempting “Cooler” model. In it, each school plays in a different division than their natural rival but still plays their rival every year along with their geographic rivals. So Washington would play Oregon, Oregon State and WSU each season, along with UCLA (an all-important L.A. recruiting trip) Colorado, and Arizona. Then the Huskies would get two games against the following four schools: USC, ASU, Utah and Stanford. The model works remarkably well; therefore I can conclude that it is all but certain that another model will be adopted.

We’ve reached the meat of the conference season. From now on non-conference games will be few and far between. As always, it will be great fun to see how things play out. College football is too crazy to expect anything less than the extraordinary. See you next week.