National Overview
So much for maintaining order. There have been signs the currently unfolding season is a mediocre one, but there seemed hope we might get four unbeaten major-conference champions to fill out the Playoff field. While that scenario is technically still in play, Ohio State's loss throws a major wrench into the plan. No offense to Michigan, but OSU was the best bet to emerge unscathed from the Big Ten.
It's surprising the Buckeyes lost, given how much more talent they have compared to the rest of the conference. However, it's also not shocking, given how average OSU looked the past few weeks. In all likelihood, this setback will galvanize the Urban Meyer-coached squad much as the team's early 2014 loss did, with the Buckeyes running the table the rest of the way. The difference this time, and the reason a quality Playoff is in danger of disappearing, is that the Big Ten isn't the tire fire it was two years ago.
Wisconsin is at least pretty good. Nebraska hasn't played anyone but is decent. Michigan is much better than it was in 2014. Ohio State's route to another backdoor title is littered with mines far more deadly than before, and it's not as if the Buckeyes looked all that good even in their recent wins.
The biggest beneficiaries from the Penn State upset are Washington and the Big 12 champion, as long as that champion isn't Oklahoma. I remain highly skeptical of Baylor and West Virginia's chances to go unbeaten, but it is possible. The Big Ten, meanwhile, now has to pin all its hopes on Michigan, because nobody believes in Nebraska (and rightly so).
I was impressed to see Texas A&M battle back from an ugly first half to take a brief lead at Alabama, but the Crimson Tide did what they so often do and wore down their overmatched opponent after the break. There is still a scenario in which A&M could make the Playoff as a second SEC team, but the loss wasn't close enough for that to happen unless a whole lot falls the Aggies' way.
Thursday night holds a key ACC battle in Week Nine, with Virginia Tech looking to maintain the lead in the Coastal on the road at Pitt. The Hokies have already crushed the two other most talented teams in the division (Miami (FL), North Carolina) and should be more or less in the clear with a win this week. The Panthers are also still in contention in the division, but face a brutal three-game stretch against VaTech, Miami and Clemson.
On Friday we see another big showdown in the AAC, where Navy can essentially clinch the West with a victory at South Florida. The Bulls are reeling after their first league loss to Temple but remain one of the conference's best teams. This is a fun clash of styles that should prove very entertaining.
The pickings are slim Saturday morning, although undefeated West Virginia's visit to Oklahoma State should be some classic defense-optional Big 12 nuttiness. The weekend really starts in the midday slot, when Pac-12 North leader Washington takes on South co-leader Utah (more on this in the Pac-12 section). We'll also see how Ohio State rebounds at home versus Northwestern.
Boise State is at Wyoming in a potential trap game, as the Cowboys are 3-0 in Mountain West play and have a tricky homefield environment. After nearly losing last week to BYU, the Broncos had better be ready. We also have a "show-me" game in the form of Nebraska at Wisconsin, where I expect the Cornhuskers to get exposed.
In prime time, the long-awaited Clemson - Florida State showdown has arrived with less-then-dramatic fanfare. The Seminoles' two previous losses have soured this one a bit, but the erratic Tigers had better come ready to play. This is exactly the kind of game the old Clemson would lose.
Playoff Poll
Apparently there's still one doofy holdout in the AP poll who needs convincing, but the rest of the country was already on board before Alabama dropped Texas A&M by 19. This is the best team in the country by a massive margin.
First Tier
Alabama
Michigan
Clemson
Washington
After the Crimson Tide, Michigan flips spots with Ohio State thanks to the benefit of having soundly defeated the team that upset the Buckeyes. Clemson gets to hang around because the Tigers have actually beaten someone, while Washington moves into the Playoff for the first time.
Second Tier
Ohio State
Florida
Scoff if you like, but if Ohio State wins out it will be in the Playoff. OSU has the advantage of having yet to play its best opponent and division rival, unlike the situations with Louisville and Texas A&M. Florida is still a dark-horse candidate, but it's never smart to underestimate the Gators.
Third Tier
Baylor
West Virginia
Boise State
Western Michigan
Utah
This group could have swelled even larger, but I had to cut it off at some point. Together, Baylor and WVU represent the wild card in this operation, yet if either runs the table - looking somewhat more likely of late - it'd be hard to exclude that team. As I said last week, Boise State and WMU are the mid-major hopefuls, while Utah, extremely improbable though it may be, could sneak in with one loss (largely because that would include two wins over Washington).
Pac-12 Report
No big shock to see the Oregon schools lose, or to see Cal and Oregon stage a back-and-forth shootout. It was more surprising to see Utah score 50, and moreover, that UCLA was the opponent giving up those points. Washington State had to once again hold off an inferior opponent late to prevail, but the big news of the week had to be Colorado getting to bowl eligibility.
It cannot be overstated how bad the Buffaloes were upon entering the new Pac-12. CU was getting thrashed by 30 and 40 points on a regular basis, and looked generally unprepared to play in a major conference despite ostensibly coming from one. From 2011 (the year Colorado came over from the Big 12) through last year, the Buffs went an unfathomable 5-40 in conference play. Now, if this team beats UCLA at home next Thursday, it will have equaled in 2016 its total number of Pac-12 wins through its first five seasons in the league. That's remarkable.
With the Buffaloes and Bruins both idle this week, though, we kick off the conference slate Thursday night at the Coliseum, where USC will host a surprising Cal team. The Trojans appear to once again be putting things together after a disappointing start, and I expect them to continue this roll against the Bears. Cal's defense is just so awful.
The only truly good game on the schedule is the first one Saturday, as Washington puts its perfect season on the line against a battered, battle-tested Utah squad. Make no mistake - the Utes should probably be undefeated, and boast a tough defense along with a nasty homefield advantage. But UW is rested, has an even better defense, and brings to Salt Lake City 2016's best pure passer. It's hard to imagine Utah's ugly offense having much success moving the ball against the tenacious Husky D.
In the afternoon, we have a bit of a puzzler in Arizona State at Oregon. The Ducks are reeling, losers of five straight and owners of the nation's worst defense. However, the Sun Devils are no great shakes themselves on that side of the ball, ranking 120th, and the UO offense is significantly better than ASU's. This seems to be a perfect setup for the home team to break out of its season-long slump, but after the past month its pretty hard to pick Oregon to beat anybody.
There are a pair of late games in Washington State - Oregon State and Stanford - Arizona. Neither is very interesting. Despite a couple of underwhelming performances Wazzu should be (and is) a big favorite in Corvallis, while Stanford, for all of its foibles, should still be able to take care of a rudderless Arizona squad. I could see both home teams winning, but in all likelihood the Cougars and Cardinal will win out.
Heisman Watch
The two biggest deciders right now are individual performance and team success, which makes the top two sort of no-brainers.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
A pass-efficiency rating of nearly 200. A 26:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. An undefeated, top-five squad poised to make a stunning leap from seven wins to the Playoff in just one season. Browning is the face of Washington's turnaround.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
Hurts doesn't have nearly as much on his plate as the other contenders, but all that goes out the window once you watch the guy play. He's already the most dangerous quarterback in the Saban era; voters are going to want to reward this team for its dominance.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
ACC defenses are... not much to write home about. Lousiville needs help to get back into Playoff consideration. Still, it's possible Jackson might literally overwhelm voters with a statistical explosion.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Watson got a much-needed break ahead of the FSU showdown, so we'll see if he can use that rest to bolster his flagging campaign. After the slow start to this year, he certainly needs it.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Nebraska is 7-0 and ranked seventh in the AP poll, tied for sixth in the coaches' poll. Yet the Cornhuskers don't even appear in my third tier of Playoff contenders. What gives? Well, as I've mentioned before, Nebraska hasn't played anyone. The Cornhuskers jumped into the polls in the strength of beating a ranked Oregon team... at home... by three. In retrospect, it looks more than a little ridiculous. That close loss in Lincoln was actually the best Oregon performance in the Ducks' current five-game slide, while NU has gone on to defeat Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana and Purdue, Big Ten teams with a combined 12-16 record. What a murderer's row!
The Cornhuskers' last three road games come against their three best opponents (Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa). Even in the extremely unlikely scenario the team navigates that slate with less than two losses, it would still have to face Michigan in the Big Ten title game. To put it simply: it ain't happening. Nebraska isn't bad by any means, but the final month of the season is going to expose the Huskers.
There are a couple of truly mind-boggling stats from the Pac-12 that have to be addressed. As of the end of Week Eight, Stanford ranks dead last - 128th in the country - in total offense. Oregon is 128th in total defense. The Cardinal and Ducks have, alternately, ruled the conference since 2009. How did this happen?
Beyond the obvious explanations of recruiting issues and the rest of the league rising to Stanford and Oregon's level, the answer seems pretty clear: hubris. Both programs enjoyed tremendous, unprecedented success in the past seven seasons. Both programs assumed they were so far ahead of the game in the Pac-12 they could simply continue doing what they'd been doing and things would stay the same. And both programs carried out those arrogant plans to their predictable endgames.
Stanford, having gotten by offensively for years with a strong O-line and some timely-if-erratic QB play, saw that well dry up when Kevin Hogan finally left town. Suddenly opponents no longer respected the Cardinal passing attack, rendering RB Christian McCaffrey completely ineffective. Couple that with an inability to replace all those NFL line talents and a regression to the mean on defense, and you've got a recipe for disaster.
Oregon's fall has been more dramatic, though in the Ducks' case it rests far less on the program's inability to develop a passer in-house. UO stopped blowing people out in the first half, which led to a more tired defense that gave up more points, which led to an offense that had to deal with increased pressure to score, which led to a worse defense when that didn't happen, and so on. As with Stanford, recruiting poorly (this time on defense) came back to bite the Ducks.
When it comes to righting the ship, it's hard to say where where both teams should start. Coaching changes? Possibly, although quick-fix firings almost always turn out poorly. Things are different now that Washington, a favorite whipping boy of the Cardinal and Ducks, has thrown off the shackles of its 15-year self-inflicted purgatory. It's unlikely we'll ever get back to the days when Stanford and UO ruled the Pac-12 (and the North division) with iron fists. As it stands now, both schools are in need of some soul-searching to find the will to rebuild these messes - just as the Huskies did.
2016 Stanzi Awards
After the two most prolific weeks in Stanzi history, Week Eight couldn't quite live up to recent precedent. Still, we got three Double Stanzis and a quintet of individual awards to keep up what's been the best year in the award's history.
Week Eight Awards
Brett Rypien, Boise State
Opponent: BYU
Performance: Two INT (both for TD's), won by one
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan
Opponent: Eastern Michigan
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 14
Jesse Ertz, Kansas State
Opponent: Texas
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three
Stephen Johnson, Kentucky
Opponent: South Carolina
Performance: Two FUM (one for TD), won by two
Kevin Ellison, Georgia Southern
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Troy Williams, Utah
Opponent: UCLA
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven
Mike Fafaul, UCLA
Opponent: Utah
Performance: Four INT, one FUM, lost by seven
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Eric Dungey, Syracuse
Opponent: Boston College
Performance: One INT, two FUM, won by eight
Patrick Towles, Boston College
Opponent: Syracuse
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by eight
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Dru Brown, Hawai'i
Opponent: Air Force
Performance: Two INT, won by seven in double overtime
Nate Romine, Air Force
Opponent: Hawai'i
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by seven in double OT
2016 Standings
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
Kenny Hill, TCU: 1
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Sam Darnold, USC: 1
Eric Dungey, Syracuse: 1
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 1
Dru Brown, Hawai'i: 1
Phillip Walker, Temple: 1
Kevin Ellison, Georgia Southern: 1
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan: 1
Darrell Gerretson, Oregon State: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1
Taysom Hill, BYU: 1
Ryan Burns, Stanford: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Stephen Johnson, Kentucky: 1
Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Jesse Ertz, Kansas State: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Luke Falk, Washington State: 1
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
Deondre Francois, Florida State: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
David Blough, Purdue: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Quinton Flowers, South Florida: 1
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan: 1
Welcome to the party, Boise State's Brett Rypien and Utah's Troy Williams! The list of multiple-week winners has now swelled to seven! 2016 has been something special.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Monday, October 17, 2016
Rising Tide
National Overview
Week Seven nearly brought complete chaos, but instead merely served to illustrate just how vast the gap is between Alabama and the rest of the nation. Ohio State, recent recipient of a now-hilariously rose-colored profile on ESPN, struggled for most of four quarters to deal with Wisconsin. Clemson, never the powerhouse it was expected to be this season, got a lucky overtime escape against North Carolina State.
Alabama? Oh, that's right. The Crimson Tide stopped just short of desecrating the graves of Tennessee's ancestors in a not-as-close-as-the-score-looks 49-10 massacre in Knoxville. Bama once again scored on defense and on special teams, bringing its season total of non-offensive touchdowns to 11, and held the supposedly potent Volunteer attack to a pitiful 163 yards. This is what a dynasty looks like.
Elsewhere, Florida knocked off Missouri to take the inside track to the SEC East crown, while Oklahoma, Baylor and West Virginia all stayed undefeated in Big 12 play (sure is amazing how the Big 12's best teams never play each other until November, isn't it?). In a potentially relevant late-season development, mid-majors Boise State and Western Michigan also remained undefeated on the year. But all of that pales in comparison to what happened in the top 10 this week.
Alabama's stunning dominance revealed once again what a farce the polls are. With three top 10 teams - Texas A&M, Washington and Michigan - all idle, that didn't figure to be the case, but thanks to the poor performance of the rest of the alleged elite, we saw teams for who they really are this weekend. Ohio State? Not on Bama's level. Clemson? The Tigers have been begging for someone to put them out of their misery. They're frauds. Louisville? The team that forced five turnovers and still lost to Clemson nearly lost to Duke this week. Frauds as well. Nebraska? Nearly lost to Indiana. Get out of here. By the way, the Tennessee team Alabama just throttled on the road took A&M to two overtimes in College Station.
So it's clear that once again it's just Alabama's world to conquer. But who else will make the Playoff? You might not need to be a major-conference champion this year to get it done (particularly if you lose a close game to a certain Crimson Tide squad and go unbeaten the rest of the way). The setup for such a scenario could begin this week.
We get started Thursday with a pair of potentially impactful games in Miami (FL) - Virginia Tech and BYU - Boise State. Friday, San Diego State tries to stay perfect in the Mountain West against rival San Jose State. The weekend truly begins with an important MAC showdown (Central Michigan at Toledo) and continues with a crucial Big Ten West game in Wisconsin - Iowa.
At noon Saturday, Colorado travels to Stanford with an opportunity to clinch a bowl bid for the first time in a decade. Memphis is also at Navy for a huge AAC contest in the midday slate, along with TCU - West Virginia and the titanic Texas A&M - Alabama showdown.
In the afternoon Arkansas is at Auburn for another SEC West battle, while Ohio State travels to Penn State and Ole Miss is at LSU. Sadly, the Pac-12 slate is pretty quiet, and the nightcap is relegated to a lone game - Washington State at Arizona State. It's a decent week overall, but the meat of the schedule is in the morning and early afternoon.
Playoff Poll
There's zero doubt about who belongs at the top of this list. It's the other three selections that get a little tricky.
First Tier
Alabama
Ohio State
Clemson
Texas A&M
Alabama is running away with the top spot to an absurd degree. I agonized over whether OSU and Clemson should get moved around for their struggles, but ultimately decided the wins outweighed the less-than-stellar performances. A&M stays here, because, as I will explain later, the Aggies might not need to win this game.
Second Tier
Michigan
Washington
Florida
The idle Wolverines and Huskies can't move up, although Michigan certainly had to feel good seeing Ohio State give up more points in the first quarter to Wisconsin than UM allowed in an entire game. As I noted last week, the Gators are now in prime position to take the SEC East and sneak into the Playoff.
Third Tier
Boise State
Western Michigan
Louisville
Louisville wasn't great against Duke, which doesn't bode well for the Cardinals' chances, given that this team needs not one but two Clemson losses to even have a shot at the ACC championship. Boise State and Western Michigan, on the other hand, could garner Playoff invites with unbeaten records, which are entirely within reach.
Pac-12 Report
Well, unlike previous weeks, this wasn't a complete disaster. Banged up and without several key players, Utah nevertheless managed to get a victory at Oregon State in a game that was a double win for the conference. Not only did the Utes stay on track in the South, they allowed the Beavers to look decent in the loss. Promising sign for OSU.
In Tucson, USC actually came through for the first time in recent memory and did exactly what the conference needed it to do: thoroughly dominate a lesser opponent. The Wildcats, now sitting at 0-4 in league play and 2-5 overall, were already out of the Pac-12 race. Better that they provide a blowout win for a conference team than a killer upset. Don't sleep on the Trojans. I had them winning the South with a 7-2 record, and a strong late-season push could still see that happen.
Stanford defeated Notre Dame in perhaps the most Stanford-like fashion imaginable, scoring a pick-six, a safety resulting from a bad shotgun snap, and a fumble recovery in the end zone to win despite getting outgained and committing three turnovers to the Irish's two. The Cardinal still have time to engage one of their signature late-season turnarounds, though with their current Pac-12 record they'll mercifully be shut out of the conference title game.
Washington State got an important, though slightly scary, win over UCLA to keep an unblemished conference record. I maintain the Cougars are on a collision course with rival Washington for an historic Apple Cup showdown that will decide the North, but there's obviously still a month left before we get to that point. UCLA, on the other hand, has stumbled into a tailspin, albeit one accelerated by injuries (quarterback Josh Rosen did not play in Pullman).
The final space in the weekly recap has to go to Colorado, which dominated Arizona State in a manner unexpected even for those of us now firmly on the Buffaloes bandwagon. To put it simply, CU was awesome on Saturday. I expected the Buffs to win, but not like that. Colorado held ASU to 3-of-18 third down conversions, racked up a 580-199 yardage edge (including 315-50 on the ground) and held the ball for seven minutes longer than the Sun Devils. We seem to have entered a strange new era of the Pac-12 in which the Buffaloes are a power.
Next week, we start Friday night in Berkeley, where Oregon has one last chance to save its 2016 campaign from complete infamy. The Ducks and Golden Bears are two of three Pac-12 teams ranked in the bottom 10 in the nation in total defense (UO is 127th; Cal is 121st, Arizona State is 123rd. For the record, the closest other major conference team is Texas Tech at 117th, and Arizona ranks 114th. That's four of the five worst Power Five defenses in the Pac-12). Needless to say, expect a shootout between Oregon and Cal, as the contest not only features awful defenses but the 10th (Bears) and 20th (Ducks) ranked offenses in the country. The loser will fall into North cellar.
The weekend slate opens with Colorado at Stanford. The Buffs will almost assuredly play in the postseason, but I'm sure they'd prefer to get that all-important sixth win out of the way on the first try. Stanford is in shambles after getting thrashed by the Washington schools, and the Cardinal probably shouldn't have beaten Notre Dame, but who knows what will happen back home on the Farm? This team remains talented and formidable, even if CU should eventually pull out a win.
Injury-riddled Utah and UCLA teams meet in Pasadena in the midday slate as well. Utah had better show up for this game; the Bruins have been very disappointing but are still good enough to win outright, especially if QB Josh Rosen is able to go again. UCLA's secondary, the strength of its defense, matches up very well with erratic Utes passer Troy Williams. Utah will once again have to lean on its defense and rushing attack.
Oregon State has been better than expected the past two weeks, notching a sweet upset of Cal and playing Utah very close. But those games were in the friendly confines of Reser Stadium, and it'll be a different story in Seattle when the Beavers take on a powerful Washington team coming off a bye. The Huskies' defense will likely eat the middling OSU offense alive; I fully expect another big UW win.
The late game features Washington State at Arizona State. The Cougars had to hold off UCLA in the fourth, while ASU got boat raced by Colorado. As mentioned previously, the Sun Devils have one of the nation's worst defenses, which does not bode well against Luke Falk & Co. ASU could turn this into a shootout, but I'd still favor the Cougs in that scenario. Wazzu should win.
Heisman Watch
It feels a bit odd to move a player up who didn't play, but with the struggles of the other top guys on this list there really was no other choice. I said last week J.T. Barrett was my leader by a slim margin, and his up-and-down performance meant he had to drop.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Browning was off last week but is still statistically the best passer in the country. He has a chance to do some major damage this week against Oregon State and should catapult himself into the Heisman front-runners.
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State.
Barrett struggled early against Wisconsin but did come through in the second half and overtime to keep OSU undefeated. I'm against lauding a guy for bringing his team back from a self-created hole, but this game was largely a wash for Barrett.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
Once again: freshman, unlikely, etc. Still, Hurts rebounded from a not-his-fault strip-sack to lead a bludgeoning of Tennessee on the road, and his steadiness on third downs in particular was impressive in a hostile environment. With the way Bama is playing, someone from the Tide will need to be in New York.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson completed just 50 percent of his passes against Duke and needed a late roughing-the-kicker penalty to avoid a loss to the Blue Devils. He's electric, but unless the Cardinals win the ACC he'll probably have to settle for an invite to the ceremony.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Watson's dreadful pick-six against NCSU turned the game around and should have cost Clemson the game, but the Tigers got lucky so Watson stays on this list. His performances continue to hobble his candidacy.
Random Thoughts and Observations
There was widespread outcry after the initial Playoff committee declined to include a conference champion mandate in its criteria, but this season might prove that decision was sound. While it's understandably difficult to reconcile the idea that a non-major-conference champion can win the national title within college football's conference-dependent environment, it's probably good to not punish great teams for playing in strong leagues. If (perhaps, when) the Playoff expands to eight teams, the concept will become inevitable.
It's relevant in 2016 because the collapse of the Big 12 and Pac-12 portends a Playoff field without a two-loss Big 12 winner (Oklahoma) or a one-loss Pac-12 winner (Washington or Utah). The Pac-12 even has a nightmare scenario in which Washington State wins the title after opening the year with losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State. If that occurs, and the Broncos are unbeaten (absolutely in play), Boise State would have to get the nod over the Cougars.
But what about Texas A&M? The Aggies could beat Alabama this week and render the question moot; I believe a team needs a strong passing offense to beat the Tide this year, and A&M checks that box. However, a much more likely scenario has Bama winning in Tuscaloosa, while the Aggies go on to finish 11-1. Would such an A&M team be worthy of Playoff consideration? Consider a disaster ACC finish that sees a multiple-loss North Carolina team upset Clemson, knocking the conference out of contention, along with Washington State winning the Pac-12. It would be hard to keep Texas A&M out if the team manages a close loss this weekend.
In other news, Michigan has moved to third following Clemson's near upset, which is reasonable by poll standards. But the reason I continue to keep the Wolverines out of my first tier is simple: I still don't think they've played anyone. UM has the nation's top-ranked defense, but look at the offenses those numbers have come against: Hawai'i, UCF, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Colorado. There's exactly one top-50 attack in there (Colorado), and lo and behold, the Buffaloes put up 28 on Michigan before an injury to QB Sefo Liufao cost CU the game. The Wolverines are good, but I'm not at all convinced this is a top-five team.
2016 Stanzi Awards
I didn't think anything could top last week's masterpiece, when six players earned individual awards and three more more games produced Double Stanzis. It turns out I spoke far, far too soon. Week Seven gave us the greatest collection of performances in Stanzi history, with three individual awards and an astonishing seven Double Stanzis. Let's recap this gloriousness!
Week Seven Awards
Riley Neal, Ball State
Opponent: Buffalo
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 10
Quinton Flowers, South Florida
Opponent: Connecticut
Performance: Two INT, won by 15
Phillip Walker, Temple
Opponent: Central Florida
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by one
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Taysom Hill, BYU
Opponent: Mississippi State
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven in OT
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State
Opponent: BYU
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven in OT
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, won by five
Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Nebraska
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), lost by five
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Deondre Francois, Florida State
Opponent: Wake Forest
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11
John Wolford, Wake Forest
Opponent: Florida State
Performance: Two INT, lost by 11
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan
Opponent: Northern Illinois
Performance: Two INT, won by six in triple OT
Anthony Maddie, Northern Illinois
Opponent: Central Michigan
Performance: Two INT, lost by six in double OT
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Alex McGough, Florida International
Opponent: Charlotte
Performance: Two INT, won by one
Hasaan Klugh, Charlotte
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by one
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Ryan Burns, Stanford
Opponent: Notre Dame
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven
DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Opponent: Stanford
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), lost by seven
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Luke Falk, Washington State
Opponent: UCLA
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by six
Mike Fafaul, UCLA
Opponent: Washington State
Performance: Two INT, lost by six
2016 Standings
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
Kenny Hill, TCU: 1
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Sam Darnold, USC: 1
Troy Williams, Utah: 1
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 1
Phillip Walker, Temple: 1
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan: 1
Darrell Gerretson, Oregon State: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1
Taysom Hill, BYU: 1
Ryan Burns, Stanford: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Luke Falk, Washington State: 1
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
Deondre Francois, Florida State: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
David Blough, Purdue: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Quinton Flowers, South Florida: 1
Two more multiple-week winners have joined the fray, both from mid-majors, in Riley Neal of Ball State and Alex McGough of Florida International! We now have five players tied for the season lead! This is shaping up to be the finest season in Stanzi history.
Week Seven nearly brought complete chaos, but instead merely served to illustrate just how vast the gap is between Alabama and the rest of the nation. Ohio State, recent recipient of a now-hilariously rose-colored profile on ESPN, struggled for most of four quarters to deal with Wisconsin. Clemson, never the powerhouse it was expected to be this season, got a lucky overtime escape against North Carolina State.
Alabama? Oh, that's right. The Crimson Tide stopped just short of desecrating the graves of Tennessee's ancestors in a not-as-close-as-the-score-looks 49-10 massacre in Knoxville. Bama once again scored on defense and on special teams, bringing its season total of non-offensive touchdowns to 11, and held the supposedly potent Volunteer attack to a pitiful 163 yards. This is what a dynasty looks like.
Elsewhere, Florida knocked off Missouri to take the inside track to the SEC East crown, while Oklahoma, Baylor and West Virginia all stayed undefeated in Big 12 play (sure is amazing how the Big 12's best teams never play each other until November, isn't it?). In a potentially relevant late-season development, mid-majors Boise State and Western Michigan also remained undefeated on the year. But all of that pales in comparison to what happened in the top 10 this week.
Alabama's stunning dominance revealed once again what a farce the polls are. With three top 10 teams - Texas A&M, Washington and Michigan - all idle, that didn't figure to be the case, but thanks to the poor performance of the rest of the alleged elite, we saw teams for who they really are this weekend. Ohio State? Not on Bama's level. Clemson? The Tigers have been begging for someone to put them out of their misery. They're frauds. Louisville? The team that forced five turnovers and still lost to Clemson nearly lost to Duke this week. Frauds as well. Nebraska? Nearly lost to Indiana. Get out of here. By the way, the Tennessee team Alabama just throttled on the road took A&M to two overtimes in College Station.
So it's clear that once again it's just Alabama's world to conquer. But who else will make the Playoff? You might not need to be a major-conference champion this year to get it done (particularly if you lose a close game to a certain Crimson Tide squad and go unbeaten the rest of the way). The setup for such a scenario could begin this week.
We get started Thursday with a pair of potentially impactful games in Miami (FL) - Virginia Tech and BYU - Boise State. Friday, San Diego State tries to stay perfect in the Mountain West against rival San Jose State. The weekend truly begins with an important MAC showdown (Central Michigan at Toledo) and continues with a crucial Big Ten West game in Wisconsin - Iowa.
At noon Saturday, Colorado travels to Stanford with an opportunity to clinch a bowl bid for the first time in a decade. Memphis is also at Navy for a huge AAC contest in the midday slate, along with TCU - West Virginia and the titanic Texas A&M - Alabama showdown.
In the afternoon Arkansas is at Auburn for another SEC West battle, while Ohio State travels to Penn State and Ole Miss is at LSU. Sadly, the Pac-12 slate is pretty quiet, and the nightcap is relegated to a lone game - Washington State at Arizona State. It's a decent week overall, but the meat of the schedule is in the morning and early afternoon.
Playoff Poll
There's zero doubt about who belongs at the top of this list. It's the other three selections that get a little tricky.
First Tier
Alabama
Ohio State
Clemson
Texas A&M
Alabama is running away with the top spot to an absurd degree. I agonized over whether OSU and Clemson should get moved around for their struggles, but ultimately decided the wins outweighed the less-than-stellar performances. A&M stays here, because, as I will explain later, the Aggies might not need to win this game.
Second Tier
Michigan
Washington
Florida
The idle Wolverines and Huskies can't move up, although Michigan certainly had to feel good seeing Ohio State give up more points in the first quarter to Wisconsin than UM allowed in an entire game. As I noted last week, the Gators are now in prime position to take the SEC East and sneak into the Playoff.
Third Tier
Boise State
Western Michigan
Louisville
Louisville wasn't great against Duke, which doesn't bode well for the Cardinals' chances, given that this team needs not one but two Clemson losses to even have a shot at the ACC championship. Boise State and Western Michigan, on the other hand, could garner Playoff invites with unbeaten records, which are entirely within reach.
Pac-12 Report
Well, unlike previous weeks, this wasn't a complete disaster. Banged up and without several key players, Utah nevertheless managed to get a victory at Oregon State in a game that was a double win for the conference. Not only did the Utes stay on track in the South, they allowed the Beavers to look decent in the loss. Promising sign for OSU.
In Tucson, USC actually came through for the first time in recent memory and did exactly what the conference needed it to do: thoroughly dominate a lesser opponent. The Wildcats, now sitting at 0-4 in league play and 2-5 overall, were already out of the Pac-12 race. Better that they provide a blowout win for a conference team than a killer upset. Don't sleep on the Trojans. I had them winning the South with a 7-2 record, and a strong late-season push could still see that happen.
Stanford defeated Notre Dame in perhaps the most Stanford-like fashion imaginable, scoring a pick-six, a safety resulting from a bad shotgun snap, and a fumble recovery in the end zone to win despite getting outgained and committing three turnovers to the Irish's two. The Cardinal still have time to engage one of their signature late-season turnarounds, though with their current Pac-12 record they'll mercifully be shut out of the conference title game.
Washington State got an important, though slightly scary, win over UCLA to keep an unblemished conference record. I maintain the Cougars are on a collision course with rival Washington for an historic Apple Cup showdown that will decide the North, but there's obviously still a month left before we get to that point. UCLA, on the other hand, has stumbled into a tailspin, albeit one accelerated by injuries (quarterback Josh Rosen did not play in Pullman).
The final space in the weekly recap has to go to Colorado, which dominated Arizona State in a manner unexpected even for those of us now firmly on the Buffaloes bandwagon. To put it simply, CU was awesome on Saturday. I expected the Buffs to win, but not like that. Colorado held ASU to 3-of-18 third down conversions, racked up a 580-199 yardage edge (including 315-50 on the ground) and held the ball for seven minutes longer than the Sun Devils. We seem to have entered a strange new era of the Pac-12 in which the Buffaloes are a power.
Next week, we start Friday night in Berkeley, where Oregon has one last chance to save its 2016 campaign from complete infamy. The Ducks and Golden Bears are two of three Pac-12 teams ranked in the bottom 10 in the nation in total defense (UO is 127th; Cal is 121st, Arizona State is 123rd. For the record, the closest other major conference team is Texas Tech at 117th, and Arizona ranks 114th. That's four of the five worst Power Five defenses in the Pac-12). Needless to say, expect a shootout between Oregon and Cal, as the contest not only features awful defenses but the 10th (Bears) and 20th (Ducks) ranked offenses in the country. The loser will fall into North cellar.
The weekend slate opens with Colorado at Stanford. The Buffs will almost assuredly play in the postseason, but I'm sure they'd prefer to get that all-important sixth win out of the way on the first try. Stanford is in shambles after getting thrashed by the Washington schools, and the Cardinal probably shouldn't have beaten Notre Dame, but who knows what will happen back home on the Farm? This team remains talented and formidable, even if CU should eventually pull out a win.
Injury-riddled Utah and UCLA teams meet in Pasadena in the midday slate as well. Utah had better show up for this game; the Bruins have been very disappointing but are still good enough to win outright, especially if QB Josh Rosen is able to go again. UCLA's secondary, the strength of its defense, matches up very well with erratic Utes passer Troy Williams. Utah will once again have to lean on its defense and rushing attack.
Oregon State has been better than expected the past two weeks, notching a sweet upset of Cal and playing Utah very close. But those games were in the friendly confines of Reser Stadium, and it'll be a different story in Seattle when the Beavers take on a powerful Washington team coming off a bye. The Huskies' defense will likely eat the middling OSU offense alive; I fully expect another big UW win.
The late game features Washington State at Arizona State. The Cougars had to hold off UCLA in the fourth, while ASU got boat raced by Colorado. As mentioned previously, the Sun Devils have one of the nation's worst defenses, which does not bode well against Luke Falk & Co. ASU could turn this into a shootout, but I'd still favor the Cougs in that scenario. Wazzu should win.
Heisman Watch
It feels a bit odd to move a player up who didn't play, but with the struggles of the other top guys on this list there really was no other choice. I said last week J.T. Barrett was my leader by a slim margin, and his up-and-down performance meant he had to drop.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Browning was off last week but is still statistically the best passer in the country. He has a chance to do some major damage this week against Oregon State and should catapult himself into the Heisman front-runners.
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State.
Barrett struggled early against Wisconsin but did come through in the second half and overtime to keep OSU undefeated. I'm against lauding a guy for bringing his team back from a self-created hole, but this game was largely a wash for Barrett.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
Once again: freshman, unlikely, etc. Still, Hurts rebounded from a not-his-fault strip-sack to lead a bludgeoning of Tennessee on the road, and his steadiness on third downs in particular was impressive in a hostile environment. With the way Bama is playing, someone from the Tide will need to be in New York.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson completed just 50 percent of his passes against Duke and needed a late roughing-the-kicker penalty to avoid a loss to the Blue Devils. He's electric, but unless the Cardinals win the ACC he'll probably have to settle for an invite to the ceremony.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Watson's dreadful pick-six against NCSU turned the game around and should have cost Clemson the game, but the Tigers got lucky so Watson stays on this list. His performances continue to hobble his candidacy.
Random Thoughts and Observations
There was widespread outcry after the initial Playoff committee declined to include a conference champion mandate in its criteria, but this season might prove that decision was sound. While it's understandably difficult to reconcile the idea that a non-major-conference champion can win the national title within college football's conference-dependent environment, it's probably good to not punish great teams for playing in strong leagues. If (perhaps, when) the Playoff expands to eight teams, the concept will become inevitable.
It's relevant in 2016 because the collapse of the Big 12 and Pac-12 portends a Playoff field without a two-loss Big 12 winner (Oklahoma) or a one-loss Pac-12 winner (Washington or Utah). The Pac-12 even has a nightmare scenario in which Washington State wins the title after opening the year with losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State. If that occurs, and the Broncos are unbeaten (absolutely in play), Boise State would have to get the nod over the Cougars.
But what about Texas A&M? The Aggies could beat Alabama this week and render the question moot; I believe a team needs a strong passing offense to beat the Tide this year, and A&M checks that box. However, a much more likely scenario has Bama winning in Tuscaloosa, while the Aggies go on to finish 11-1. Would such an A&M team be worthy of Playoff consideration? Consider a disaster ACC finish that sees a multiple-loss North Carolina team upset Clemson, knocking the conference out of contention, along with Washington State winning the Pac-12. It would be hard to keep Texas A&M out if the team manages a close loss this weekend.
In other news, Michigan has moved to third following Clemson's near upset, which is reasonable by poll standards. But the reason I continue to keep the Wolverines out of my first tier is simple: I still don't think they've played anyone. UM has the nation's top-ranked defense, but look at the offenses those numbers have come against: Hawai'i, UCF, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Colorado. There's exactly one top-50 attack in there (Colorado), and lo and behold, the Buffaloes put up 28 on Michigan before an injury to QB Sefo Liufao cost CU the game. The Wolverines are good, but I'm not at all convinced this is a top-five team.
2016 Stanzi Awards
I didn't think anything could top last week's masterpiece, when six players earned individual awards and three more more games produced Double Stanzis. It turns out I spoke far, far too soon. Week Seven gave us the greatest collection of performances in Stanzi history, with three individual awards and an astonishing seven Double Stanzis. Let's recap this gloriousness!
Week Seven Awards
Riley Neal, Ball State
Opponent: Buffalo
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 10
Quinton Flowers, South Florida
Opponent: Connecticut
Performance: Two INT, won by 15
Phillip Walker, Temple
Opponent: Central Florida
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by one
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Taysom Hill, BYU
Opponent: Mississippi State
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven in OT
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State
Opponent: BYU
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven in OT
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, won by five
Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Nebraska
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), lost by five
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Deondre Francois, Florida State
Opponent: Wake Forest
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11
John Wolford, Wake Forest
Opponent: Florida State
Performance: Two INT, lost by 11
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan
Opponent: Northern Illinois
Performance: Two INT, won by six in triple OT
Anthony Maddie, Northern Illinois
Opponent: Central Michigan
Performance: Two INT, lost by six in double OT
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Alex McGough, Florida International
Opponent: Charlotte
Performance: Two INT, won by one
Hasaan Klugh, Charlotte
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by one
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Ryan Burns, Stanford
Opponent: Notre Dame
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven
DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Opponent: Stanford
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), lost by seven
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Luke Falk, Washington State
Opponent: UCLA
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by six
Mike Fafaul, UCLA
Opponent: Washington State
Performance: Two INT, lost by six
2016 Standings
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
Kenny Hill, TCU: 1
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Sam Darnold, USC: 1
Troy Williams, Utah: 1
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 1
Phillip Walker, Temple: 1
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan: 1
Darrell Gerretson, Oregon State: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1
Taysom Hill, BYU: 1
Ryan Burns, Stanford: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Luke Falk, Washington State: 1
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
Deondre Francois, Florida State: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
David Blough, Purdue: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Quinton Flowers, South Florida: 1
Two more multiple-week winners have joined the fray, both from mid-majors, in Riley Neal of Ball State and Alex McGough of Florida International! We now have five players tied for the season lead! This is shaping up to be the finest season in Stanzi history.
Thursday, October 13, 2016
The Houston Dream Dies
National Overview
It was an entertaining, if predictable, Week Six. The powers did mostly as expected, with each team in the top five picking up a blowout win. Houston was the outlier, as the six-ranked Cougars saw their Playoff dreams dashed at Navy. Other than that game, and Miami (FL)'s all-too-familiar flop against Florida State, it was business as usual.
Again, we're left with the question of who can beat Alabama when it counts. The Crimson Tide were as sloppy as they've been in the Saban era on Saturday night, turning the ball over three times, yet they still methodically built a 25-point lead and cruised to a 49-30 victory over a not-bad Arkansas team on the road. What's it going to take to truly challenge Bama?
Staying in that vein, it will be interesting to see what happens when Michigan finally gets to face a real, live football team. I'm not convinced at all that Wisconsin is that good (alleged "quality" wins: LSU and Michigan State), and the Wolverines' schedule over the next month is embarrassingly soft. Fortunately, we've already seen MSU and Iowa exposed, so UM's trips to those opponents will provide at least a small amount of clarity on the issue.
Contrast Michigan's schedule with that of Ohio State's, which is jarringly different despite the teams playing in the same division. The Buckeyes travel to Wisconsin this weekend for a contest that should answer once and for all whether the Badgers (and therefore, the Wolverines) are legit. OSU also draws Nebraska in November, another game that should serve as a legitimacy test for the conference.
While the Big Ten basks in the glow of boasting four top-10 teams - deserved or not - the Big 12 and Pac-12 languish. The leagues got an unexpected infusion of hope this week with Houston's loss opening the door for another major-conference champion in the Playoff, but there's still a long way to go before we get to that point. The Pac-12 was an absolute disaster in the late-night slate, while the Big 12 continues to look like a conference without a direction or clear leader.
In Week Seven, we get started with Clemson hosting a potentially dangerous North Carolina State team, while the Big 12 desperately needs West Virginia to stay undefeated at Texas Tech. The big game in the midday slot is Alabama at cross-division rival Tennessee (should be another Tide win), but keep an eye on some other games at the same time: Western Michigan travels to Akron for a big MAC showdown (don't laugh!); Nebraska is on the road against a potent Indiana squad, and North Carolina - Miami could decide the ACC Coastal.
In the afternoon there's a juicy second-tier SEC West matchup in Ole Miss - Arkansas, followed by Stanford at Notre Dame in the Disappointment Bowl. In primetime we get the huge Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Wisconsin, but there's also a Pac-12 contest to watch, as Arizona State and Colorado face off in Boulder for a game with far more South implications than anyone would have predicted before this year began.
Playoff Poll
There's a new team in here following Houston's early demise, but it might not be the one you expect. Based on current resume, however, it's the only real choice.
First Tier
Alabama
Ohio State
Clemson
Texas A&M
Bama continues to rule as god-king of the college football universe until further notice. I expect Ohio State to beat Wisconsin by double digits, but the Buckeye's current resume is already better than Michigan's, which didn't include a road game until last week. Clemson has seemingly emerged from its early-season stumbles to take command of the ACC. Texas A&M has beaten five Power Conference teams, including two still ranked, and should have blown out Tennessee.
Second Tier
Michigan
Washington
Tennessee
The Wolverines get the slight nod over the Huskies because Wisconsin is still ranked. Washington's claim to legitimacy is, unfortunately, now based on a blowout of an unranked Stanford team. That doesn't mean much, and the Pac-12's continued struggles could hurt UW as the season goes along. Tennessee appeared to finally get its comeuppance against A&M after stealing wins against Appalachian State and Georgia, but I'm keeping them here for one more week, because a stunning upset of Alabama would completely turn on the tables on this season yet again.
Third Tier
Louisville
Wisconsin
Florida
The Cardinals are in a tough spot, as they need Clemson to lose twice to have any chance at the ACC title and thus a spot in the Playoff. Wisconsin seems like an unlikely candidate at this point, but perhaps the Badgers will surprise me against Ohio State. Florida is a sleeper to keep an eye on; with Tennessee potentially losing its second league game to Alabama this week, the door would be open for the Gators to win out (doable) and sneak into the Playoff.
Pac-12 Report
Yikes. Week Six couldn't have gone much worse. Washington fans certainly won't think so, which is fair; snapping a 12-year losing streak to your hated rival will do that. But the results this week portend some long-term ramifications for the conference that aren't pretty.
For starters, there's the obvious problem of having the team Washington just beat lose again, in significantly worse fashion. The score was closer against Washington State, but a closer look at the two contests shows that not only were the games remarkably similar, but that Stanford has more to answer for against Wazzu.
Stanford was at home in this game. The Cardinal had an extra day off. WSU was unranked. The Cougars put up six touchdowns (to Washington's five) and actually allowed just three legitimate points to the Stanford offense, as one Cardinal TD came on a pick-six and the other was against WSU's backups as time expired (more on that later). It's one thing to lose the time of possession battle to UW, but to Wazzu? Ugh.
Colorado sadly came up a little short against USC, opening the door for a lot of crazy stuff to happen in the South, but the result proved that the Buffaloes really can compete with the talent around the conference. Utah flexed its muscle in a comeback win over Arizona that looked ugly early, and the Utes have to be considered the front-runner in the South at this point. However, that doesn't mean much with how poor the rest of the conference looks.
It was fun for Oregon State to get a Pac-12 win over Cal, but the game was shamefully devoid of any defense and will hurt the league. Likewise, Arizona State got an important win over UCLA, but the rash of injuries and sloppiness from the Bruins suggest the better team lost. The conference is beating up on itself, but not in an impressive way. No viewers who turned in late at night from around the country will be convinced this is a great league.
Which brings us to Washington, and the current state of the Pac-12 in terms of Playoff worthiness. Oregon's defense is dreadful, and the team overall is not very good outside of the skill positions. UW can't help that. But look at the Huskies' schedule. Washington picked a trio of weak non-conference foes, assuming (as most people did) that the Pac-12 season would be a rugged battle of attrition. There should have been no need for an eye-opening victory over a Baylor or a Wisconsin.
Unfortunately, Washington has now completed the first half of its schedule at 6-0 but has no quality wins. Stanford and Oregon were expected to be at least ranked, if not in the top 10 or 15. Neither win means anything at this point. The Huskies do travel to Utah (hovering at the bottom of the rankings) later this month, and it's possible ASU and WSU could be ranked when the Huskies play them in November, but the pickings here are pretty slim. Anything less than a perfect record and the Committee won't hesitate to axe the Huskies in favor of another major-conference champion. I think Washington could go an unprecedented 9-0 in the Pac-12 and fail to play a single top-15 team, which does not bode well for Playoff success.
Oregon, Cal and Washington take this week off, which leaves us with a funky blend of divisional games, cross-division showdowns and one non-conference matchup. After every team in the league played a division rival in Week Six, it's a little underwhelming.
USC heads to Arizona in the first game of the day, looking to send the Wildcats to 0-4 and essentially end all hope of a bowl in Tucson. The Trojans should win after seeming to figure some things out defensively against Colorado, but Zona's option presents a different kind of challenge, so don't count the Cats out. SC's history means it does not deserve the benefit of trust in this situation.
From there we head to Corvallis, where long-suffering Oregon State will be riding high after ending a 12-game losing streak of its own. The first league win in the Gary Andersen era will likely be greeted with a dose of reality from Utah, however, as the Utes look to solidify their hold on the South division. Now, OSU may have found a magic formula on offense, but it's more likely Cal's D is just really bad. Utah, on the other hand, has a good defense, and will win as long as quarterback Troy Williams stays away from the turnovers that have plagued him.
In the afternoon Stanford heads to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in a series that has been excellent the past few years but will be underwhelming in 2016. The teams have combined for five wins and six losses already after both started the season ranked in the top 10, while the respective offenses have ground to a plodding halt. It's hard to imagine we'll see much scoring here, and the Cardinal have a proud history of embarrassing the conference in these games, but we'll see.
Arizona State - Colorado, on the other hand, has a chance to be a real firecracker. We've seen ASU score, but they've yet to play any real defense (other than against a severely hobbled UCLA team). Colorado is quite good offensively, very efficient and deceptively explosive. However, it's the Buffs' D that should carry them to victory here, as CU has quietly built a very respectable unit that ranks in the top 25.
The nightcap is UCLA at Washington State, where the Cougars have a chance to rebound from an 0-2 start to move to 4-2 with a 3-0 conference record. The Bruins remain dangerous, but it's tough to pick them in this game knowing QB Josh Rosen might not play. Wazzu has gotten back on track after those early struggles and is rolling offensively, even on the ground. I like the Cougs to emerge as a real challenger to Washington for North supremacy.
Heisman Watch
It's finally time to talk about the award for the top player in college football, and the conversation at this point in 2016 could not have gone more sideways. Multiple preseason favorites have lost games, been injured, or not lived up to expectations. With half the season (roughly) gone, we have to look at what players have done to this point. Here are our most deserving halfway point nominees:
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
Barrett is my current front-runner by a slim margin. He's thrown 15 TD's against three interceptions and added four scores on the ground with a respectable five yards per carry. He doesn't have the explosiveness of some other candidates, but if Ohio State runs the table he'll almost certainly win.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
I don't know if Browning is really THIS good or if he's been aided by the schedule, but you can't argue with a 23 TD's and just two picks. He leads the nation in passing TD's (and passing efficiency) despite playing in a balanced, non-spread attack, and Washington wouldn't be where it is without him.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson's 28 total TD's are awesome, and he's a dynamite rusher playing in an offense well-suited to utilize his running skills. His passing is erratic, but most of Louisville's opponents won't be able to captilize on that.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Watson is in some ways a more restrained, more efficient version of Jackson. He should be the front-runner at this point, but there's no denying his play has slipped since last year: Watson has already thrown 7 INT's and has not yet rushed for a score.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
It seems unlikely with a true freshman, but Hurts has thrown just two picks, completed nearly 64 percent of his passes and rushed for five TD's. He's certainly not the reason for Bama's success, but if enough things fall right he could be in New York as the most talented QB of the Saban era.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Stanford was pitiful on offense Saturday night, managing just one field goal for most of the game. The Cardinal pulled running back Christian McCaffrey midway through the third quarter, and though the onetime Heisman candidate didn't look right he also hadn't had any impact on the contest to that point anyway. It was a surprising performance from the Washington State defense, which was not expected to control the game in the same way Washington's D did the previous week.
It's understandable that Stanford would want to get a score late in the game to provide some confidence heading into next week. What isn't respectable - or defensible - is how the Cardinal did it. Using timeouts to prolong a garbage-time drive against an opponent's backups is eyeroll-worthy as it is, but then Stanford made the outrageously bush-league decision to stop the game with one second left, trailing 42-10, in order to throw a TD pass as time expired. It was an awful look, and it won't fool anyone who watched the game and saw the Cardinal get thrashed.
2016 Stanzi Awards
What a weekend! Week Six might go down as the greatest in Stanzi history. Six players garnered individual awards, along with a record three Double Stanzis all in one day. Included in the madness was the best performance we've seen to date this season, as TCU's Kenny Hill turned the ball over four times, only to be outdone by Kansas' Ryan Willis, who did the same, in the Horned Frogs' one-point win. It was a glorious week to behold.
Week Six Awards
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State
Opponent: Georgia Southern
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by one
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Opponent: Texas
Performance: Two INT, won by five
Sam Darnold, USC
Opponent: Colorado
Performance: One INT, two FUM, won by four
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: Two INT, won by 11
David Blough, Purdue
Opponent: Illinois
Performance: Two INT, won by three in overtime
Darrell Garretson, Oregon State
Opponent: California
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by three in OT
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M
Opponent: Tennessee
Performance: Two INT, won by seven in double OT
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee
Opponent: Texas A&M
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, lost by seven in double OT
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Kenny Hill, TCU
Opponent: Kansas
Performance: Three INT, one FUM, won by one
Ryan Willis, Kansas
Opponent: TCU
Performance: Three INT, one FUM, lost by one
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
C.J. Beathard, Iowa
Opponent: Minnesota
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota
Opponent: Iowa
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven
2016 Standings
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Kenny Hill, TCU: 1
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Sam Darnold, USC: 1
Troy Williams, Utah: 1
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 1
Darrell Gerretson, Oregon State: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Alex McGough, Florida International: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
David Blough, Purdue: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Riley Neal, Ball State: 1
In even more exciting news, we now have three players, all high-profile, sharing the season lead with two Stanzis apiece! Take a bow, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield and Trevor Knight! With this kind of bounty, who knows what Week Seven holds in store for us?
It was an entertaining, if predictable, Week Six. The powers did mostly as expected, with each team in the top five picking up a blowout win. Houston was the outlier, as the six-ranked Cougars saw their Playoff dreams dashed at Navy. Other than that game, and Miami (FL)'s all-too-familiar flop against Florida State, it was business as usual.
Again, we're left with the question of who can beat Alabama when it counts. The Crimson Tide were as sloppy as they've been in the Saban era on Saturday night, turning the ball over three times, yet they still methodically built a 25-point lead and cruised to a 49-30 victory over a not-bad Arkansas team on the road. What's it going to take to truly challenge Bama?
Staying in that vein, it will be interesting to see what happens when Michigan finally gets to face a real, live football team. I'm not convinced at all that Wisconsin is that good (alleged "quality" wins: LSU and Michigan State), and the Wolverines' schedule over the next month is embarrassingly soft. Fortunately, we've already seen MSU and Iowa exposed, so UM's trips to those opponents will provide at least a small amount of clarity on the issue.
Contrast Michigan's schedule with that of Ohio State's, which is jarringly different despite the teams playing in the same division. The Buckeyes travel to Wisconsin this weekend for a contest that should answer once and for all whether the Badgers (and therefore, the Wolverines) are legit. OSU also draws Nebraska in November, another game that should serve as a legitimacy test for the conference.
While the Big Ten basks in the glow of boasting four top-10 teams - deserved or not - the Big 12 and Pac-12 languish. The leagues got an unexpected infusion of hope this week with Houston's loss opening the door for another major-conference champion in the Playoff, but there's still a long way to go before we get to that point. The Pac-12 was an absolute disaster in the late-night slate, while the Big 12 continues to look like a conference without a direction or clear leader.
In Week Seven, we get started with Clemson hosting a potentially dangerous North Carolina State team, while the Big 12 desperately needs West Virginia to stay undefeated at Texas Tech. The big game in the midday slot is Alabama at cross-division rival Tennessee (should be another Tide win), but keep an eye on some other games at the same time: Western Michigan travels to Akron for a big MAC showdown (don't laugh!); Nebraska is on the road against a potent Indiana squad, and North Carolina - Miami could decide the ACC Coastal.
In the afternoon there's a juicy second-tier SEC West matchup in Ole Miss - Arkansas, followed by Stanford at Notre Dame in the Disappointment Bowl. In primetime we get the huge Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Wisconsin, but there's also a Pac-12 contest to watch, as Arizona State and Colorado face off in Boulder for a game with far more South implications than anyone would have predicted before this year began.
Playoff Poll
There's a new team in here following Houston's early demise, but it might not be the one you expect. Based on current resume, however, it's the only real choice.
First Tier
Alabama
Ohio State
Clemson
Texas A&M
Bama continues to rule as god-king of the college football universe until further notice. I expect Ohio State to beat Wisconsin by double digits, but the Buckeye's current resume is already better than Michigan's, which didn't include a road game until last week. Clemson has seemingly emerged from its early-season stumbles to take command of the ACC. Texas A&M has beaten five Power Conference teams, including two still ranked, and should have blown out Tennessee.
Second Tier
Michigan
Washington
Tennessee
The Wolverines get the slight nod over the Huskies because Wisconsin is still ranked. Washington's claim to legitimacy is, unfortunately, now based on a blowout of an unranked Stanford team. That doesn't mean much, and the Pac-12's continued struggles could hurt UW as the season goes along. Tennessee appeared to finally get its comeuppance against A&M after stealing wins against Appalachian State and Georgia, but I'm keeping them here for one more week, because a stunning upset of Alabama would completely turn on the tables on this season yet again.
Third Tier
Louisville
Wisconsin
Florida
The Cardinals are in a tough spot, as they need Clemson to lose twice to have any chance at the ACC title and thus a spot in the Playoff. Wisconsin seems like an unlikely candidate at this point, but perhaps the Badgers will surprise me against Ohio State. Florida is a sleeper to keep an eye on; with Tennessee potentially losing its second league game to Alabama this week, the door would be open for the Gators to win out (doable) and sneak into the Playoff.
Pac-12 Report
Yikes. Week Six couldn't have gone much worse. Washington fans certainly won't think so, which is fair; snapping a 12-year losing streak to your hated rival will do that. But the results this week portend some long-term ramifications for the conference that aren't pretty.
For starters, there's the obvious problem of having the team Washington just beat lose again, in significantly worse fashion. The score was closer against Washington State, but a closer look at the two contests shows that not only were the games remarkably similar, but that Stanford has more to answer for against Wazzu.
Stanford was at home in this game. The Cardinal had an extra day off. WSU was unranked. The Cougars put up six touchdowns (to Washington's five) and actually allowed just three legitimate points to the Stanford offense, as one Cardinal TD came on a pick-six and the other was against WSU's backups as time expired (more on that later). It's one thing to lose the time of possession battle to UW, but to Wazzu? Ugh.
Colorado sadly came up a little short against USC, opening the door for a lot of crazy stuff to happen in the South, but the result proved that the Buffaloes really can compete with the talent around the conference. Utah flexed its muscle in a comeback win over Arizona that looked ugly early, and the Utes have to be considered the front-runner in the South at this point. However, that doesn't mean much with how poor the rest of the conference looks.
It was fun for Oregon State to get a Pac-12 win over Cal, but the game was shamefully devoid of any defense and will hurt the league. Likewise, Arizona State got an important win over UCLA, but the rash of injuries and sloppiness from the Bruins suggest the better team lost. The conference is beating up on itself, but not in an impressive way. No viewers who turned in late at night from around the country will be convinced this is a great league.
Which brings us to Washington, and the current state of the Pac-12 in terms of Playoff worthiness. Oregon's defense is dreadful, and the team overall is not very good outside of the skill positions. UW can't help that. But look at the Huskies' schedule. Washington picked a trio of weak non-conference foes, assuming (as most people did) that the Pac-12 season would be a rugged battle of attrition. There should have been no need for an eye-opening victory over a Baylor or a Wisconsin.
Unfortunately, Washington has now completed the first half of its schedule at 6-0 but has no quality wins. Stanford and Oregon were expected to be at least ranked, if not in the top 10 or 15. Neither win means anything at this point. The Huskies do travel to Utah (hovering at the bottom of the rankings) later this month, and it's possible ASU and WSU could be ranked when the Huskies play them in November, but the pickings here are pretty slim. Anything less than a perfect record and the Committee won't hesitate to axe the Huskies in favor of another major-conference champion. I think Washington could go an unprecedented 9-0 in the Pac-12 and fail to play a single top-15 team, which does not bode well for Playoff success.
Oregon, Cal and Washington take this week off, which leaves us with a funky blend of divisional games, cross-division showdowns and one non-conference matchup. After every team in the league played a division rival in Week Six, it's a little underwhelming.
USC heads to Arizona in the first game of the day, looking to send the Wildcats to 0-4 and essentially end all hope of a bowl in Tucson. The Trojans should win after seeming to figure some things out defensively against Colorado, but Zona's option presents a different kind of challenge, so don't count the Cats out. SC's history means it does not deserve the benefit of trust in this situation.
From there we head to Corvallis, where long-suffering Oregon State will be riding high after ending a 12-game losing streak of its own. The first league win in the Gary Andersen era will likely be greeted with a dose of reality from Utah, however, as the Utes look to solidify their hold on the South division. Now, OSU may have found a magic formula on offense, but it's more likely Cal's D is just really bad. Utah, on the other hand, has a good defense, and will win as long as quarterback Troy Williams stays away from the turnovers that have plagued him.
In the afternoon Stanford heads to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in a series that has been excellent the past few years but will be underwhelming in 2016. The teams have combined for five wins and six losses already after both started the season ranked in the top 10, while the respective offenses have ground to a plodding halt. It's hard to imagine we'll see much scoring here, and the Cardinal have a proud history of embarrassing the conference in these games, but we'll see.
Arizona State - Colorado, on the other hand, has a chance to be a real firecracker. We've seen ASU score, but they've yet to play any real defense (other than against a severely hobbled UCLA team). Colorado is quite good offensively, very efficient and deceptively explosive. However, it's the Buffs' D that should carry them to victory here, as CU has quietly built a very respectable unit that ranks in the top 25.
The nightcap is UCLA at Washington State, where the Cougars have a chance to rebound from an 0-2 start to move to 4-2 with a 3-0 conference record. The Bruins remain dangerous, but it's tough to pick them in this game knowing QB Josh Rosen might not play. Wazzu has gotten back on track after those early struggles and is rolling offensively, even on the ground. I like the Cougs to emerge as a real challenger to Washington for North supremacy.
Heisman Watch
It's finally time to talk about the award for the top player in college football, and the conversation at this point in 2016 could not have gone more sideways. Multiple preseason favorites have lost games, been injured, or not lived up to expectations. With half the season (roughly) gone, we have to look at what players have done to this point. Here are our most deserving halfway point nominees:
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
Barrett is my current front-runner by a slim margin. He's thrown 15 TD's against three interceptions and added four scores on the ground with a respectable five yards per carry. He doesn't have the explosiveness of some other candidates, but if Ohio State runs the table he'll almost certainly win.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
I don't know if Browning is really THIS good or if he's been aided by the schedule, but you can't argue with a 23 TD's and just two picks. He leads the nation in passing TD's (and passing efficiency) despite playing in a balanced, non-spread attack, and Washington wouldn't be where it is without him.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson's 28 total TD's are awesome, and he's a dynamite rusher playing in an offense well-suited to utilize his running skills. His passing is erratic, but most of Louisville's opponents won't be able to captilize on that.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Watson is in some ways a more restrained, more efficient version of Jackson. He should be the front-runner at this point, but there's no denying his play has slipped since last year: Watson has already thrown 7 INT's and has not yet rushed for a score.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
It seems unlikely with a true freshman, but Hurts has thrown just two picks, completed nearly 64 percent of his passes and rushed for five TD's. He's certainly not the reason for Bama's success, but if enough things fall right he could be in New York as the most talented QB of the Saban era.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Stanford was pitiful on offense Saturday night, managing just one field goal for most of the game. The Cardinal pulled running back Christian McCaffrey midway through the third quarter, and though the onetime Heisman candidate didn't look right he also hadn't had any impact on the contest to that point anyway. It was a surprising performance from the Washington State defense, which was not expected to control the game in the same way Washington's D did the previous week.
It's understandable that Stanford would want to get a score late in the game to provide some confidence heading into next week. What isn't respectable - or defensible - is how the Cardinal did it. Using timeouts to prolong a garbage-time drive against an opponent's backups is eyeroll-worthy as it is, but then Stanford made the outrageously bush-league decision to stop the game with one second left, trailing 42-10, in order to throw a TD pass as time expired. It was an awful look, and it won't fool anyone who watched the game and saw the Cardinal get thrashed.
2016 Stanzi Awards
What a weekend! Week Six might go down as the greatest in Stanzi history. Six players garnered individual awards, along with a record three Double Stanzis all in one day. Included in the madness was the best performance we've seen to date this season, as TCU's Kenny Hill turned the ball over four times, only to be outdone by Kansas' Ryan Willis, who did the same, in the Horned Frogs' one-point win. It was a glorious week to behold.
Week Six Awards
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State
Opponent: Georgia Southern
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by one
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Opponent: Texas
Performance: Two INT, won by five
Sam Darnold, USC
Opponent: Colorado
Performance: One INT, two FUM, won by four
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: Two INT, won by 11
David Blough, Purdue
Opponent: Illinois
Performance: Two INT, won by three in overtime
Darrell Garretson, Oregon State
Opponent: California
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by three in OT
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M
Opponent: Tennessee
Performance: Two INT, won by seven in double OT
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee
Opponent: Texas A&M
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, lost by seven in double OT
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Kenny Hill, TCU
Opponent: Kansas
Performance: Three INT, one FUM, won by one
Ryan Willis, Kansas
Opponent: TCU
Performance: Three INT, one FUM, lost by one
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
C.J. Beathard, Iowa
Opponent: Minnesota
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota
Opponent: Iowa
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven
2016 Standings
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Kenny Hill, TCU: 1
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Sam Darnold, USC: 1
Troy Williams, Utah: 1
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 1
Darrell Gerretson, Oregon State: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Alex McGough, Florida International: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
David Blough, Purdue: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Riley Neal, Ball State: 1
In even more exciting news, we now have three players, all high-profile, sharing the season lead with two Stanzis apiece! Take a bow, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield and Trevor Knight! With this kind of bounty, who knows what Week Seven holds in store for us?
Wednesday, October 5, 2016
October Blues and the Pac-12
National Overview
It's been a wild two weeks since the beginning of my Hawai'i sojourn. From Louisville's stunning annihilation of Florida State to Colorado's surprising rise to the top of the Pac-12 South, there's a lot to go over. Stanford moved into the top five, then proved to be a fraud. Texas and Notre Dame, participants in that great opening weekend contest, were similarly exposed. And Tennessee - stumbling, bumbling Tennessee - has seemingly cashed in years of bad luck for a shot at an improbably charmed 2016 campaign.
The Pac-12 has been turned upside-down, with Washington leading the North and the aforementioned Buffaloes atop the South. Clemson has somehow parlayed a shaky early-season start into a 5-0 record, while Texas A&M and Alabama seem destined for a clash to decide SEC supremacy. The Big Ten stills seems to be the property of Ohio State and Michigan.
The most surprising part of the first month of the season is not which squads have risen to the top, but the long list of teams that have disappointed. LSU. Oregon. FSU. Michigan State. USC. Notre Dame. Oklahoma. Texas. Varying degrees of success were predicted for this group, but the uniting theme is underachievement.
Meanwhile, the select few keeping chugging along. Alabama continues to look like the monolithic juggernaut pundits expected. Ohio State, despite replacing the majority of its starters, appears dominant again. Clemson weathered that rough start (and a rough second half) to top Louisville and stay on track for the ACC crown. And oh yes, Houston keeps quietly moving toward snagging that first Playoff spot for a non-Power Five school. There's a lot of football left to play, but as my initial rankings will show, those are currently the teams in line for a National Championship.
This week, there's a crucial early AAC matchup between Temple and Memphis on Thursday night to set us up for the weekend. The classic Red River Shootout (once again, I refuse to use the term "Red River Rivalry") between Oklahoma and Texas kicks us off Saturday morning, with both teams desperately in need of a rivalry game win. LSU is at Florida at the same time for a very intriguing SEC showdown that could offer insight into whether the Tigers are really ready to break out with Les Miles gone. That thrashing of Mizzou seems to indicate that might be the case.
In the midday slate, Houston tries to move to 6-0 on the road against a dangerous Navy squad, while Virginia Tech and North Carolina face off in Chapel Hill in a battle of ranked teams. Tennessee and Texas A&M meet in College Station for perhaps the weekend's best game, and Colorado will attempt to clear another big hurdle with a win at USC.
Later on, Alabama will look to bludgeon Arkansas back out of the top 25 on the road. Wounded Florida State will travel to rival Miami (FL) for an important ACC matchup (also in primetime), while the nightcap offers a pair of potentially wild Pac-12 games in UCLA - Arizona State and Washington State - Stanford. It promises to be a quality slate.
Playoff Poll
Here we go. I always wait until the end of September to debut my Playoff rankings, so my brief hiatus came at a perfect time. There are plenty of unanswered questions for the teams here, but for now the first tier, at least, is pretty clear-cut.
First Tier
Alabama
Ohio State
Clemson
Houston
Alabama holds the top spot until it looks human, while Ohio State has been the only team in reasonable proximity to the Crimson Tide thus far. Clemson has a better win than OSU, but the Tigers' poor start and suspect defense don't engender the same level of confidence. Houston has been under the radar since the (now somewhat less valuable) win over Oklahoma but is still on track for a Playoff bid.
Second Tier
Michigan
Washington
Texas A&M
Tennessee
The Wolverines just got a big victory over Wisconsin, but the reason they don't jump into the first tier is because I'm not convinced the Badgers are all that good (that 14-7 slog sure didn't LOOK like a pair of top-10 teams duking it out). Washington is in a similar wait-and-see place, as the win was great but the opponent - in this case Stanford - might have just been overrated. The SEC teams both have to play Alabama soon and play each other this week, so we'll get some answers on that front very shortly.
Third Tier
Louisville
Wisconsin
Stanford
It's harsh to put Louisville here, but the fact is the Cardinals lost to Clemson. It was close, but it was still a loss, and right now nobody above UL has to deal with that same lack of margin of error. Wisconsin and Stanford, as I said above, both might be overrated. However, they also both have the potential to go on runs and wind up as conference champions if things play out right, and I've learned to never count out the Badgers and Cardinal too soon.
Pac-12 Report
What else is there to say? The Pac-12's woes have continued, with Arizona State and Utah both dropping their second conference game to earn their initial losses of the year, while Stanford looked positively dreadful against Washington last Friday. And oh yeah, flagship programs USC and Oregon are still struggling to figure things out, with the Trojans and Ducks both sitting at 2-3 overall. This is not going well.
The early hope for the league was that either Washington or Stanford would roll to a conference title and snag a Playoff bid. With the Cardinal now down to their last life, it's pretty much all up to the Huskies, which is a lot to ask from a team looking for its first double-digit win season since 2000. Washington could win the conference, but the weakening of the Pac-12 might end up doing UW more harm than good, as the current lack of poll respect could doom the Huskies' Playoff chances. With just four teams in the AP top 25, the league will probably need Washington to run the table to stay in contention.
The Dawgs will get a chance to work on that this weekend by exorcising another demon in the form of Oregon and the Ducks' 12-game winning streak, the longest by either team in the longstanding rivalry. This appears to be Washington's year, with UO struggling mightily defensively and on the O-line and the Huskies on a tear to start the season. You couldn't ask for a more perfect setup for UW to end this ignominous streak. Of course, that also makes it a perfect trap game, as the Ducks have very little to lose at this point and will be playing at in front of a throwback raucous crowd desperate to keep the streak alive at Autzen Stadium. For the first time in at least 10 years Washington is unquestionably the better team, but you never know in college football.
A 4-1 start for Colorado didn't look out of the question, but rising to 2-0 in conference play and taking the early lead in the South sure did. The Buffaloes will get a chance to turn this year from promising to special Saturday when they take on USC at the Coliseum. The Trojans are in rough shape after an ugly September, but remain highly talented and quite dangerous, which is why they're favored. Sadly, the odds still favor SC, whose previous Pac-12 foes (Stanford, Utah and ASU) were a mite stronger than CU's duo of Oregon and Oregon State. A little dose of reality is probably in store, but don't sleep on Colorado's D, which ranks first in the conference above even Washington.
Two other important South games match up Arizona and Utah alongside UCLA at ASU. Utah should be able to handle the Wildcats, who sit at the bottom of the division, but after last week's loss to Cal nobody in Salt Lake City should be taking anything for granted. The Utes are still a quality quarterback away from being an elite (or semi-elite) team, but they looked quite good in their first four games (all wins) and could still be the South champs.
The same is true for both UCLA and ASU who, like Utah, are 1-1 in Pac-12 play. The Sun Devils' no-show at USC last week didn't do a lot to generate confidence, but the fact remains that ASU can really score (my goodness, can they score) and are not a team you want dragging you into a shootout. The Bruins' defense ranks highly despite facing a tough early slate and should be able to get the job done, even on the road, but I'm far past the point of trusting this team until I see results.
Cal is at Oregon State for a contest that looked to be quite competitive in the preseason and now appears to be a runaway for the Golden Bears. Oregon State has marginally improved in 2016 but is still a long way from being able to really compete in the Pac-12; Cal, on the other hand, has surpassed all expectations and is a shootout loss to ASU from being a game out in the North. The Bears' defense is atrocious, so the Beavers should score, but Cal is far too good offensively for this to really be a game.
Finally, there's Washington State at Stanford, a matchup that looked absolutely fantastic heading into the year but has now lost most of its luster. Wazzu has been another of the league's disappointments, while Stanford was exposed last week at Washington. Emotions are bound to be high after the Cardinal's fortunate escape on the Palouse last year, but even with the dip Stanford appears to have taken it's hard to see the Cougars pulling this one out. WSU just hasn't looked right so far this year.
Random Thoughts and Observations
It would be remiss of me to not address the firing of Les Miles after I wrote about it so often. As I said last season, before this season began and after LSU's opening loss to Wisconsin, it was simply time. Miles' inability to convert quality recruiting classes into quality offenses - along with his stunning inability to develop a QB - made him expendable. LSU didn't need to spend another four years losing to Alabama and struggling to finish eighth in the conference in offense. It knew what it had in Miles; a coach unable to adjust to the changing landscape of college football, unable to move beyond an archaic offensive system and unable to find uses for legitimate pro talents on his team. It was time. Both parties will be better for it.
2016 Stanzi Awards
It's been a while. We've got three whole weeks of Stanzis to catch up on, so let's not waste time! Week Three was one of the quietest in memory, with just two Stanzis awarded. Fortunately, Week Four made up for that with a Double Stanzi to go along with a pair of four-interception performances that moved their maestros into the season lead. Not to be outdone, Clemson's Deshaun Watson turned in a four-turnover masterpiece last week to become the first player this year with multiple Stanzis. He's now the clubhouse leader.
Week Three Awards
Ben Hicks, SMU
Opponent: Liberty
Performance: Two INT, won by 15
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette
Opponent: South Alabama
Performance: Two INT, won by five
Week Four Awards
Todd Porter, Eastern Michigan
Opponent: Wyoming
Performance: Four INT (two for TD), won by three
Steven Montez, Colorado
Opponent: Oregon
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee
Opponent: Florida
Performance: Two INT, won by 10
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: Nicholls
Performance: Four INT (one for TD), won by one in overtime
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Ross Trail, Cincinnati
Opponent: Miami (OH)
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by seven
Billy Bahl, Miami (OH)
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by seven
Week Five Awards
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Opponent: TCU
Performance: Two FUM, won by six
Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Opponent: Louisville
Performance: Three INT, one FUM, won by six
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M
Opponent: South Carolina
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11
Tra'von Chapman, Akron
Opponent: Kent State
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by four
Alex McGough, Florida International
Opponent: Florida Atlantic
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by two
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State
Opponent: Louisiana-Lafayette
Performance: Two INT, won by six in OT
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), lost by six in OT
2016 Standings
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Troy Williams, Utah: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Alex McGough, Florida International: 1
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Riley Neal, Ball State: 1
September has come and gone! The remainder of the season largely consists of conference play, so we ought to get some wonderful bad quarterbacking performance as the weeks go on. The Playoff chase has just begun.
It's been a wild two weeks since the beginning of my Hawai'i sojourn. From Louisville's stunning annihilation of Florida State to Colorado's surprising rise to the top of the Pac-12 South, there's a lot to go over. Stanford moved into the top five, then proved to be a fraud. Texas and Notre Dame, participants in that great opening weekend contest, were similarly exposed. And Tennessee - stumbling, bumbling Tennessee - has seemingly cashed in years of bad luck for a shot at an improbably charmed 2016 campaign.
The Pac-12 has been turned upside-down, with Washington leading the North and the aforementioned Buffaloes atop the South. Clemson has somehow parlayed a shaky early-season start into a 5-0 record, while Texas A&M and Alabama seem destined for a clash to decide SEC supremacy. The Big Ten stills seems to be the property of Ohio State and Michigan.
The most surprising part of the first month of the season is not which squads have risen to the top, but the long list of teams that have disappointed. LSU. Oregon. FSU. Michigan State. USC. Notre Dame. Oklahoma. Texas. Varying degrees of success were predicted for this group, but the uniting theme is underachievement.
Meanwhile, the select few keeping chugging along. Alabama continues to look like the monolithic juggernaut pundits expected. Ohio State, despite replacing the majority of its starters, appears dominant again. Clemson weathered that rough start (and a rough second half) to top Louisville and stay on track for the ACC crown. And oh yes, Houston keeps quietly moving toward snagging that first Playoff spot for a non-Power Five school. There's a lot of football left to play, but as my initial rankings will show, those are currently the teams in line for a National Championship.
This week, there's a crucial early AAC matchup between Temple and Memphis on Thursday night to set us up for the weekend. The classic Red River Shootout (once again, I refuse to use the term "Red River Rivalry") between Oklahoma and Texas kicks us off Saturday morning, with both teams desperately in need of a rivalry game win. LSU is at Florida at the same time for a very intriguing SEC showdown that could offer insight into whether the Tigers are really ready to break out with Les Miles gone. That thrashing of Mizzou seems to indicate that might be the case.
In the midday slate, Houston tries to move to 6-0 on the road against a dangerous Navy squad, while Virginia Tech and North Carolina face off in Chapel Hill in a battle of ranked teams. Tennessee and Texas A&M meet in College Station for perhaps the weekend's best game, and Colorado will attempt to clear another big hurdle with a win at USC.
Later on, Alabama will look to bludgeon Arkansas back out of the top 25 on the road. Wounded Florida State will travel to rival Miami (FL) for an important ACC matchup (also in primetime), while the nightcap offers a pair of potentially wild Pac-12 games in UCLA - Arizona State and Washington State - Stanford. It promises to be a quality slate.
Playoff Poll
Here we go. I always wait until the end of September to debut my Playoff rankings, so my brief hiatus came at a perfect time. There are plenty of unanswered questions for the teams here, but for now the first tier, at least, is pretty clear-cut.
First Tier
Alabama
Ohio State
Clemson
Houston
Alabama holds the top spot until it looks human, while Ohio State has been the only team in reasonable proximity to the Crimson Tide thus far. Clemson has a better win than OSU, but the Tigers' poor start and suspect defense don't engender the same level of confidence. Houston has been under the radar since the (now somewhat less valuable) win over Oklahoma but is still on track for a Playoff bid.
Second Tier
Michigan
Washington
Texas A&M
Tennessee
The Wolverines just got a big victory over Wisconsin, but the reason they don't jump into the first tier is because I'm not convinced the Badgers are all that good (that 14-7 slog sure didn't LOOK like a pair of top-10 teams duking it out). Washington is in a similar wait-and-see place, as the win was great but the opponent - in this case Stanford - might have just been overrated. The SEC teams both have to play Alabama soon and play each other this week, so we'll get some answers on that front very shortly.
Third Tier
Louisville
Wisconsin
Stanford
It's harsh to put Louisville here, but the fact is the Cardinals lost to Clemson. It was close, but it was still a loss, and right now nobody above UL has to deal with that same lack of margin of error. Wisconsin and Stanford, as I said above, both might be overrated. However, they also both have the potential to go on runs and wind up as conference champions if things play out right, and I've learned to never count out the Badgers and Cardinal too soon.
Pac-12 Report
What else is there to say? The Pac-12's woes have continued, with Arizona State and Utah both dropping their second conference game to earn their initial losses of the year, while Stanford looked positively dreadful against Washington last Friday. And oh yeah, flagship programs USC and Oregon are still struggling to figure things out, with the Trojans and Ducks both sitting at 2-3 overall. This is not going well.
The early hope for the league was that either Washington or Stanford would roll to a conference title and snag a Playoff bid. With the Cardinal now down to their last life, it's pretty much all up to the Huskies, which is a lot to ask from a team looking for its first double-digit win season since 2000. Washington could win the conference, but the weakening of the Pac-12 might end up doing UW more harm than good, as the current lack of poll respect could doom the Huskies' Playoff chances. With just four teams in the AP top 25, the league will probably need Washington to run the table to stay in contention.
The Dawgs will get a chance to work on that this weekend by exorcising another demon in the form of Oregon and the Ducks' 12-game winning streak, the longest by either team in the longstanding rivalry. This appears to be Washington's year, with UO struggling mightily defensively and on the O-line and the Huskies on a tear to start the season. You couldn't ask for a more perfect setup for UW to end this ignominous streak. Of course, that also makes it a perfect trap game, as the Ducks have very little to lose at this point and will be playing at in front of a throwback raucous crowd desperate to keep the streak alive at Autzen Stadium. For the first time in at least 10 years Washington is unquestionably the better team, but you never know in college football.
A 4-1 start for Colorado didn't look out of the question, but rising to 2-0 in conference play and taking the early lead in the South sure did. The Buffaloes will get a chance to turn this year from promising to special Saturday when they take on USC at the Coliseum. The Trojans are in rough shape after an ugly September, but remain highly talented and quite dangerous, which is why they're favored. Sadly, the odds still favor SC, whose previous Pac-12 foes (Stanford, Utah and ASU) were a mite stronger than CU's duo of Oregon and Oregon State. A little dose of reality is probably in store, but don't sleep on Colorado's D, which ranks first in the conference above even Washington.
Two other important South games match up Arizona and Utah alongside UCLA at ASU. Utah should be able to handle the Wildcats, who sit at the bottom of the division, but after last week's loss to Cal nobody in Salt Lake City should be taking anything for granted. The Utes are still a quality quarterback away from being an elite (or semi-elite) team, but they looked quite good in their first four games (all wins) and could still be the South champs.
The same is true for both UCLA and ASU who, like Utah, are 1-1 in Pac-12 play. The Sun Devils' no-show at USC last week didn't do a lot to generate confidence, but the fact remains that ASU can really score (my goodness, can they score) and are not a team you want dragging you into a shootout. The Bruins' defense ranks highly despite facing a tough early slate and should be able to get the job done, even on the road, but I'm far past the point of trusting this team until I see results.
Cal is at Oregon State for a contest that looked to be quite competitive in the preseason and now appears to be a runaway for the Golden Bears. Oregon State has marginally improved in 2016 but is still a long way from being able to really compete in the Pac-12; Cal, on the other hand, has surpassed all expectations and is a shootout loss to ASU from being a game out in the North. The Bears' defense is atrocious, so the Beavers should score, but Cal is far too good offensively for this to really be a game.
Finally, there's Washington State at Stanford, a matchup that looked absolutely fantastic heading into the year but has now lost most of its luster. Wazzu has been another of the league's disappointments, while Stanford was exposed last week at Washington. Emotions are bound to be high after the Cardinal's fortunate escape on the Palouse last year, but even with the dip Stanford appears to have taken it's hard to see the Cougars pulling this one out. WSU just hasn't looked right so far this year.
Random Thoughts and Observations
It would be remiss of me to not address the firing of Les Miles after I wrote about it so often. As I said last season, before this season began and after LSU's opening loss to Wisconsin, it was simply time. Miles' inability to convert quality recruiting classes into quality offenses - along with his stunning inability to develop a QB - made him expendable. LSU didn't need to spend another four years losing to Alabama and struggling to finish eighth in the conference in offense. It knew what it had in Miles; a coach unable to adjust to the changing landscape of college football, unable to move beyond an archaic offensive system and unable to find uses for legitimate pro talents on his team. It was time. Both parties will be better for it.
2016 Stanzi Awards
It's been a while. We've got three whole weeks of Stanzis to catch up on, so let's not waste time! Week Three was one of the quietest in memory, with just two Stanzis awarded. Fortunately, Week Four made up for that with a Double Stanzi to go along with a pair of four-interception performances that moved their maestros into the season lead. Not to be outdone, Clemson's Deshaun Watson turned in a four-turnover masterpiece last week to become the first player this year with multiple Stanzis. He's now the clubhouse leader.
Week Three Awards
Ben Hicks, SMU
Opponent: Liberty
Performance: Two INT, won by 15
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette
Opponent: South Alabama
Performance: Two INT, won by five
Week Four Awards
Todd Porter, Eastern Michigan
Opponent: Wyoming
Performance: Four INT (two for TD), won by three
Steven Montez, Colorado
Opponent: Oregon
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee
Opponent: Florida
Performance: Two INT, won by 10
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: Nicholls
Performance: Four INT (one for TD), won by one in overtime
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Ross Trail, Cincinnati
Opponent: Miami (OH)
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by seven
Billy Bahl, Miami (OH)
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by seven
Week Five Awards
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Opponent: TCU
Performance: Two FUM, won by six
Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Opponent: Louisville
Performance: Three INT, one FUM, won by six
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M
Opponent: South Carolina
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11
Tra'von Chapman, Akron
Opponent: Kent State
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by four
Alex McGough, Florida International
Opponent: Florida Atlantic
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by two
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State
Opponent: Louisiana-Lafayette
Performance: Two INT, won by six in OT
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), lost by six in OT
2016 Standings
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Troy Williams, Utah: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Alex McGough, Florida International: 1
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Riley Neal, Ball State: 1
September has come and gone! The remainder of the season largely consists of conference play, so we ought to get some wonderful bad quarterbacking performance as the weeks go on. The Playoff chase has just begun.
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