New World Order

Few sports have ever successfully navigated upheaval like college football has experienced over the past decade. The NCAA has come under intense scrutiny, both for letting certain favored schools off the hook and for failing to properly punish impropriety. The newly-minted playoff created to fix the BCS is already hearing calls for expansion, while conference realignment has rendered the national landscape virtually unrecognizable.

What’s more, the game itself has changed radically in the last 10 years. The possession-based action of the early-to-mid-2000’s has vanished, embraced now by only a handful of holdout schools. The revolutionary spread option authored by visionaries Urban Meyer, Chip Kelly and Gus Malzahn has become the norm Infused with new-age up-tempo and old-school Run and Shoot tactics, the spread has shattered previously-held notions of offensive potential.

Yet the more things change, the more they stay the same. Time-honored maxims still apply in college football, even with all the flashy improvements to the sport. Having a superior quarterback is still the shortest route to victory. Winning the line of scrimmage still wins games. And as Alabama has so aptly demonstrated in this most imbalanced of sports, championships are still reserved for the hyper-elite.

The Crimson Tide have won four of the last seven National Championships, accumulating a national-best 72-10 record (87.8 percent). Here are Bama’s recruiting class rankings since the start of the last decade: 5, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3. Is it shocking in any way that the Tide seem nigh-unbeatable at times? Alabama has bent even the mighty SEC to its will.

The Playoff was intended to provide a “true” national champion – the best team, decided on the field. Unfortunately, it may have done just that. The other three teams to win a title during Bama’s run – Ohio State, Florida State and Auburn – all also consistently recruit at an elite level. It’s almost impossible now to win the championship without an entire roster built of top-15 recruiting classes (at worst). The most impressive achievement of this decade might be Oregon’s second-best national record of 69-12 (85.2 percent) with a high class ranking of just 11. (Conversely, there’s no uglier track record than Texas’ 41-35 in the past seven years despite an average recruiting ranking of ninth overall.)

So the question now is not, “Can anyone beat Alabama?” It’s “Can anyone recruit like Bama?” The Crimson Tide have lost games. They are beatable in a micro sense, on a good day against a quality opponent. But Bama is winning the war, stockpiling elite talent to both use and hide away from other schools (and prevent from transferring, another of Nick Saban’s unseemly practices). It’s going to take schools like Ohio State, Notre Dame and USC to even the playing field, and – despite the Buckeyes’ win in the 2014 Playoff – even those historic powers are having a rough go of it.

At this point my choice to win the National Championship is probably pretty clear. But as always, I do more than predict a single team to win the title. The pool of true contenders is a small one, particularly so this season, and I’ll elaborate on the teams I think have a shot in the section below. Group A is comprised of the hyper-elite, the favorites to win their respective conferences and make the College Football Playoff. Group B is made up of squads I like but feel need help to reach that ultimate goal. New this year, Group C will consist of teams that have talent but also fatal flaws that keep them out of true contention.

Group A

Alabama

Might as well get it out of the way. Alabama has flaws, just like any team. The Crimson Tide lost a decent chunk of the starting defense, including star linebacker Reggie Ragland and tackle A’Shawn Robinson. QB Jake Coker is gone, as is Heisman-winning running back Derrick Henry and his backup Kenyan Drake. I doubt Nick Saban cares. Remember those recruiting rankings? The Tide can plug in another half-dozen elite defensive players and not miss a beat.

The RB situation is more tenuous, though there’s little question a quality rotation will emerge given the talent available. QB is the real question mark, but Alabama seems to be the one team in the country relatively immune to such concerns. Whereas teams like LSU and Texas (which also recruit elite defensive players) seem to be held back by their mediocre signal-callers, Bama inevitably finds a decent, efficient passer who manages games and doesn’t muck up the good work of the defense and running game. It’s the Alabama Way, and the reason this team has to be considered the favorite to repeat.

Ohio State

OSU has a delightful September matchup with Oklahoma and must travel to both Wisconsin and Michigan State, but it’s doubtful the Buckeyes will be anything less than very, very good. A lot of key defenders are gone, and yes, so are RB Ezekiel Elliott and the top three receivers. But like Alabama, Ohio State has the luxury of simply reloading, and the re-insertion of QB J.T. Barrett (a 2014 First-Team All-Big Ten player) will ease the transition.

The Big Ten is also significantly weaker than the SEC, which partially accounts for the Buckeyes’ recent success. Michigan is on the rise with Jim Harbaugh, but the Wolverines still have a ways to go to catch their rival. The odds are against Michigan State sustaining the same level of elite play, and the entire West Division is largely a non-threat. Urban Meyer is too good to allow this squad to drop from contention.

Oklahoma

I hate myself a little for including the Sooners here. How many times does this team have to flop on the big stage before it stops getting preseason hype? Bob Stoops lost the right to the moniker “Big Game Bob” with his atrocious game plan against Clemson in last year’s Playoff semifinal, although if we’re being honest he probably deserved to lose it about a decade ago (if not earlier). The Big 12 has lost a great deal of its luster, providing a noticeable lack of preparation for its marquee teams on the big stage. The Sooners have gotten throttled in their last two postseason contests, too. So why do I believe this year?

The truth is that I simply have more faith in OU than any of its Big 12 peers, especially now that Baylor’s program and image have taken such a hit in the last six months. Oklahoma has perhaps the nation’s best QB behind center in Baker Mayfield, which eases quite a few of my fears. The Big 12 slate is navigable, and there are two meaty opportunities for respect in the non-league schedule in the form of Houston and Ohio State. I expect the Sooners to repeat as conference champs, and with that will almost assuredly come a Playoff invite.

Clemson

The Tigers face the impossible task of living up the greatest season in school history in 2015. They’ll be doing it without five of their top six tacklers from last year and with a daunting road contest at Florida State on the schedule, a game that will likely decide the ACC’s champion and Playoff entrant. There’s also the specter of the close loss in the National Championship, which could potentially haunt this squad.

While the defense might be weaker, however, the offense will probably be even more potent. Desahun Watson is a legit star at the QB position, and more importantly, his team will face a pretty cupcake-laden slate in the tepid ACC. Outside of the showdown with the Seminoles there’s nobody who can come close to the Tigers in 2016, turning this into essentially a one-game season. Better teams than Clemson have stumbled on the illusion of non-pressure such a schedule provides. We’ll see how they handle being the favorite.

Florida State

Unlike Clemson, the Seminoles actually play a real schedule, with an opening week tilt against Ole Miss as well as a cross-division draw of Coastal contenders Miami (FL) and North Carolina (as opposed to the Tigers’ eye-rolling draw of Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh). That schedule is probably the biggest impediment to a conference championship/Playoff berth type of season, though Clemson will certainly have a say about that as well.

The case for the Seminoles is talent; like Alabama and Ohio State, this squad can simply reload. Five of past six recruiting classes have been in the top five nationally, including 2016’s No. 1 class overall. Clemson was the better team last year but still had trouble pulling away from the ‘Noles, indicative of the talent gap between the two programs. And yes, FSU does have to start a freshman at QB… but as I recall, that worked out pretty well the last time.

Group B

LSU

Oh, LSU. The anti-Bama. Both schools recruit for defense and the offensive line first, then try to insert a QB who just won’t lose games. Yet at every turn, the Crimson Tide seem to find an average-to-solid game manager, while the Tigers always trot out some incompetent sap. All the pieces are here again, with 17 returning starters and a host of blue-chip talent. The main issue is once again the QB and if Les Miles can finally coax something resembling respectability out of his passing offense (The secondary issue is how long Miles gets to coast on his flukey 2007 championship he won with Nick Saban's players).

Brandon Harris isn’t a lost cause, but a 54 percent completion percentage and a 13-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio isn’t going to cut it in 2016. The Tigers have gotten exactly one quality QB season in the last eight years, and even Zach Mettenberger’s impressive 2013 campaign was preceded by a highly disappointing 2012. This team has all the talent in the world, but unless it figures out an offense beyond “Run Leonard Fournette into the ground,” it’s going to come up short against elite competition again.

Ole Miss

The Rebels are sort of the inverse LSU, with the SEC’s top QB in Chad Kelly but holes elsewhere that will likely sink their championship dreams. It’s not going to be easy to replace the offense’s top three playmakers or all-world D-lineman Robert Nkemdiche, but the Rebels have recruited well enough over the past few years – some might say suspiciously well – to not fall off the map.

In the end a lack of continuity will probably doom this team, despite the individual brilliance of Kelly. Ole Miss was lucky to beat Alabama last year and won’t do so again. A season-opening showdown with a Florida State team eager to leap back into the national spotlight is another huge landmine. It seems unlikely the Rebels will continue to defy the odds and improve their record for the fifth straight season.

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish have again orchestrated a nasty independent schedule (as well they should). There’s a trip to a potentially resurgent Texas in Week One, showdowns with quality Miami (FL) and Navy teams, and of course the traditional battles with Michigan State, Stanford and USC. A lack of experience (just nine returning starters) will make a successful campaign against that slate a tall order, but if they pull it off the Irish will certainly be in the Playoff.

In Notre Dame’s favor is a very favorable QB situation, as highly-touted passers DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire compete for the right to be guided by Brian Kelly’s very steady – and QB-friendly – hand. The maximum of 12 games is a hindrance that allows no room for error, but this team almost made the Playoff last year against a tougher schedule. Count out Notre Dame at your peril.

Houston

Houston is a very interesting wild card. Normally I’d be wary of a mid-major that lost several starters and was coming off a dream season. Those are strong indicators of a regression to the mean, even in a weaker conference like the AAC. However, there are two key factors working in Houston’s favor that point to a potential triumphant follow-up to 2015’s 13-1 campaign.

First, there’s QB Greg Ward, one of the nation’s most dynamic dual-threat players. Second, there’s the schedule, which is seemingly crafted by destiny to ensure the Cougars become the first Group of Five school to make the Playoff. The AAC slate doesn’t do Houston any favors, with road trips to fellow contenders Cincinnati, Navy and Memphis. But two big non-conference showdowns with Power Five programs – at home against Louisville in November and a “neutral site” opener against Oklahoma in the Houston Texans’ NRG Stadium – can boost this squad’s credibility even more after last season’s finish. What’s more, if Houston runs the table, it will potentially eliminate a Power Five champion in the Sooners, clearing its own path to the Playoff.

Group C

Tennessee

The Volunteers are getting a lot of hype, which is fair for a team that returns 17 starters and appears to have finally crawled out of the mess that began at the end of the Phil Fulmer era. 2016’s schedule is the reason to really be excited about this team, though. Much of the SEC East is hapless (the last five games are almost assuredly wins), and as long as the Vols can split their Florida/Georgia series’ they’ll be in good position to win the division. In the end, UT probably isn’t quite good enough yet to be a real threat, but I understand the buzz.

Michigan

Jim Harbaugh, irritating though he may be, is a quality coach. Michigan is clearly on the rise with him at the helm, and the future showdowns he’ll have with Ohio State’s Urban Meyer should have fans salivating. But this is a little too soon. The Wolverines must travel to Michigan State, Iowa and OSU, and they aren’t winning all those games. The rest of the Big Ten is soft, so anything less than 12-1 won’t impress the committee enough to merit a Playoff invite.

Boise State

If Houston, why not Boise State? I’m glad you asked. BYU and Washington State are worthy non-conference foes, sure, but they don’t measure up to Louisville and Oklahoma. What’s more, the AAC is better than the Mountain West, offering fewer opportunities for impressive poll-boosting wins. It’s possible both the Broncos and San Diego State could go 12-0 to set up a massive conference championship game showdown, but even then, BSU (or SDSU) would take a backseat to an undefeated Houston.

Pac-12 Champion

It’s an ugly proposition after the conference was left out of the Playoff a year ago, but I don’t see the Pac-12 getting in. There aren’t any elite teams and there are too many above-average teams. Oregon, Stanford, Washington and Washington State are going to beat each other up in the North, while UCLA, USC and Utah should make the South a bloodbath as well. This could potentially be the most thrilling conference race in the country, but I doubt anyone makes it out with fewer than two losses. This will be covered more in-depth in my Pac-12 preview.

The pool is small this year. Alabama has raised the bar for title contention. It’s no longer good enough to be above-average, get lucky and win your conference. Recruiting is maybe more important than ever, and the Playoff committee has already put pressure on Power Five teams to strengthen scheduling, which will make those whirlwind dream seasons against weak competition significantly less likely. The new era of college football has now begun.

With the Playoff contenders down, the next topic is how we’ll get to that point. Seeing elite teams schedule other Power Five programs in non-league action is very promising, but it’s the conference season that truly matters in college football. Tomorrow, I’ll explore the individual conference races and make picks for each division and league champion.