To eat and to watch football

The carousel of madness spins on! Ejected for not maintaining a tight enough grip were Oregon, Baylor and Texas A&M. The beneficiaries? Ohio State, maybe? The Buckeyes were already third in the BCS, but had to breathe a sigh of relief from the result in Stillwater (and honestly, the one in Tucson as well). Aside from that, no one at the top of polls really came out as a winner Saturday. Auburn and Missouri will both get their chance on the field so the rankings are irrelevant, while Oklahoma State is likely too far out to make a legitimate late move. However, the status quo holding steady does not diminish the excitement from the weekend’s action.

There was some mildly entertaining midweek MACtion before UCF all but sewed up the AAC’s BCS berth with a blowout of Rutgers on Thursday. Then Navy emerged victorious from a triple-overtime war with San Jose State and we were off and running. Michigan State clinched the Legends Division with a stomping of Northwestern while Duke moved within one win of doing the same in the ACC Coastal. There was also the hilarious Hawai’i – Wyoming shootout, which featured 13 touchdown passes but ended on an OT field goal. Arizona State clinched the Pac-12 South win a solid win over UCLA, while the Mountain West race became very interesting with Boise State’s loss to San Diego State.

Then there were the ugly ones. Oregon should feel grateful to Texas A&M and Baylor, as the Ducks’ meltdown in Tucson was overshadowed by more high-profile flameouts from their Texas counterparts. A&M was embarrassed by LSU for the second straight season and Baylor finally saw a Big 12 team capable of playing defense. All three offense-focused teams saw their attacks stall out in one form or another and went down to ignominious defeat. Yet despite the frustrating nature of those losses, all three teams could also take solace in the fact that at least they weren’t Florida.

The Gators lost to FCS foe Georgia Southern in what could go down as the worst defeat to a lower-division opponent in history. People point to the Appalachian State – Michigan upset, but what’s forgotten about that game is that App State was a brilliant lower-level team (with future NFL players) in the middle of an FCS National Championship threepeat. Georgia Southern is a middling squad in its own conference (4-4 in the Southern). But the dagger is in the box score: 429 rushing yards, zero passing yards. The Eagles went a mere 0-3 passing and were content to pound the Gators on the ground for more than 400 yards and four TD’s. That’s what makes this the most shocking – and worst – FCS loss. It could cost Will Muschamp his job and it probably should.

We’re now down to the meat of the rivalry games and the end of the conference races. Several championship games have already been set, but a fair amount are still up for grabs. Duke, Miami (FL), Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are all mathematically alive for the ACC Coastal. Both SEC divisions will be decided this week, as will both divisions of Conference USA, the MAC East and the Mountain West’s Mountain division. Several of these games will be played the day after Thanksgiving, and that’s before we even get to the symbolic significance of all the rivalry games being played this week.

There’s Texas Tech – Texas (sadly replacing the traditional Thanksgiving Lone Star Showdown), the Egg Bowl, SMU – Houston, The Battle for the Golden Boot, the Apple Cup, the Civil War, Florida – Florida State, South Florida – Central Florida, Ohio State – Michigan, the Iron Bowl, Georgia – Georgia Tech (AKA Clean, Old Fashioned Hate), the Commonwealth Cup, the Battle for L.A., the Territorial Cup, the Battle for the Palmetto State and the Rumble in the Rockies. That’s a whole lot of must-see football.

Top 25

1) Florida State

Despite committing the karmic sin of dropping 80 on an overmatched opponent like Idaho, FSU retains my top spot. The Seminoles are the most dominant team in college football. I think it’ll be a push when they face Alabama, but for all this team has accomplished and how they've looked doing it I’d have to be crazy to not make them number one. That would change if ‘Bama convincingly beats Auburn, but until that happens FSU cannot be touched. About the off-field incident… see below.

2) Alabama

Overall Alabama’s body of work is stronger than FSU’s, but the big wins aren’t nearly as sexy as the ‘Noles’. Virginia Tech and Texas A&M have been disappointments and LSU isn’t exactly what it was the past couple of years. As I said, the scale would finally tip toward ‘Bama with an impressive win in the Iron Bowl, so let’s hold judgment until we see what happens. I do expect the Crimson Tide to win. Good though Auburn has been, the Tigers have gotten a little lucky this year.

3) Ohio State

The train of terror continues to rumble through the Big Ten, plowing aside all challengers. OSU hasn’t faced a legitimate opponent in two months, so the undefeated record is hardly surprising. Michigan likely won’t provide much more than a speed bump either. It’s fair to look ahead to the championship game now that Michigan State has clinched. It’s going to be a great matchup: all of the Buckeyes’ weapons against the unyielding force that is the Spartans’ defense. OSU should win, but you can never count out a team that plays D on the level of MSU.

4) Missouri

To be honest, there’s not a true marquee win here. Georgia was already pretty banged-up when the Tigers went to Athens and Ole Miss has proved to be up-and-down. However, Mizzou gets points for quality of defeat (three, in OT, to South Carolina) and the SEC’s overall strength. That ranking will obviously be tested against Texas A&M in the finale. The Aggies will be rather angry after the pounding they took from LSU and the Tigers’ QB situation is… confusing. Maty Mauk and James Franklin has both been great, who do you choose?

5) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys were the biggest winner this week based on their own performance (unlike Ohio State). As I’d alluded to the past month, I was in the camp that suspected Okie State might still be the best team in the Big 12, even with the hiccup at West Virginia. Wonder no more, OSU is for real. A date with Oklahoma stands in the way of another conference title, but with how inconsistent the Sooners have been this year I expect the Cowboys to win Bedlam and reclaim that trophy.

6) Clemson

You don’t get much credit for beating Citadel. How about South Carolina? The Tigers haven’t bested their in-state rivals since 2009. The ACC could really use this shot in the arm and Clemson is still nearly guaranteed of a BCS appearance with a win. Another loss to the Gamecocks and you can bet voters would think hard about rewarding a team that hasn’t really beaten anyone since the opener with Georgia. Pride AND a reward ought to be enough, but this team has struggled with Carolina in the past.

7) Auburn

Auburn is a good team and clearly much improved from the start of the season. But it’s weeks like this that make me overjoyed for the end of the BCS. Computers can’t take into account the luck Auburn got against Georgia. Humans should know better. As good as the Tigers have been their reputation is based solely on a single win – Texas A&M – that has now been revealed as less than impressive. All of the hypotheticals about the Iron Bowl need to stop. Alabama is going to win.

8) Stanford

The Cardinal expected to go out Saturday and win an easy game with Cal and ended up getting a lot more. Thanks to Oregon returning the favor of an upset, Stanford is back in the Pac-12 title game and will get Arizona State, a team it hammered earlier in the year. Things will be different regardless of where the rematch is played, but the Cardinal have to like this opponent. Notre Dame is the final regular-season foe, though that has no impact on the conference race. I’d expect Stanford to want payback after last season, anyway.

9) South Carolina

Both Clemson and Carolina took the week off against FCS teams before their rivalry game, so the sides should be rested and ready for war Saturday evening. I’ve said all season I think SC has the Tigers’ number and I won’t back down from that position now. Clemson has looked better overall, but that was true in the past and I’m done getting burned in this game. The Gamecocks are at home and should have all the confidence in the world that they can get yet another one on their rivals.

10) Michigan State

It’s fun to watch an angry MSU defense. The Spartans, stung by allowing four TD’s the previous week to Nebraska, made it their business to extend Northwestern’s misery another week, stuffing the Wildcats at every turn en route to a 30-6 win. The division has been clinched, but don’t think this squad will relax against Minnesota this week. I believe MSU not only wants to knock out Ohio State, they want to be on a roll when they do it. A close loss to Notre Dame is the only blemish on what has otherwise been a fantastic year.

11) Baylor

The Bears finally had “that game” everyone was expecting. The offense was shut down, the defense looked poor and the wheels came off the whole operation. It’s not a shocking loss; at some point, the offense was going to have a bad day, and the defense was never elite to begin with. Baylor is still a quality team – they should beat Texas – and can make a BCS game, although I doubt a second Big 12 team really deserves one. TCU is sort of a given, although the Horned Frogs’ defense is formidable.

12) Oregon

It’s been five years since an Oregon team was blown out and the shocked looks on the players’ faces told the story. The Ducks actually outgained the Wildcats, which is incredible given the margin of victory, but this was a textbook example of how to lose a game. Turnovers, an inability to score in the red zone and penalties all factored into the loss. With Oregon State on deck, UO has to win to avoid falling even further in the bowl pecking order. The Alamo and Holiday are usually fine prizes, but for this team they feel like complete failure.

13) UCF

The Knights did what Louisville could not, putting away Rutgers convincingly to move to 6-0 in league play. Winning either of the final two games should clinch the American’s BCS bid, though there’s still danger from the Cincinnati team UCF missed this season. Considering this week’s matchup is South Florida, it’s probably safe to say the Knights are in. The AAC may only have an automatic berth for one season, but this team has clearly made the most of the opportunity.

14) Arizona State

I’d like to reward the Sun Devils even more for clinching the South, but I’ve seen Bad ASU along with Good ASU. As such, I remain hesitant to fully commit to this squad. A win over Arizona would move ASU to 10-2, which is pretty impressive considering the difficulty of the schedule. If the Sun Devils do in fact get Stanford at home for the Pac-12 title the result could be very different from the first meeting. It’s not as if the Cardinal have been particularly consistent this season, either.

15) Wisconsin

Just below ASU is the team they “beat,” in September, and unfortunately that game is now proving to be a bit of a problem. Wisconsin would be a virtual shoo-in for a BCS game at 11-1, but with two losses and the weakness of the Big Ten undermining them the Badgers are in a tough position. Michigan State’s rise has also thrown a wrench into Wisconsin’s plans: even with a loss to Ohio State, MSU would be more deserving of a BCS bid. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

16) LSU

Although the Tigers have been all over the place the past month I wasn’t particularly shocked by Saturday’s result. LSU played A&M better than anyone but Florida last season and continued that trend with aplomb. The defense allowed Johnny Manziel to beat himself by turning his aggressiveness into a fatal flaw and the offense capitalized on the Aggies’ atrocious efforts to power to an easy win. A three-loss campaign sounds bad for LSU, but considering two of them were by three points I think the year has actually been fairly successful.

17) USC

No surprise. The Trojans won their fifth straight and moved in position to backdoor their way into the Pac-12 Championship… only to see UCLA fall to ASU, assuring the Sun Devils the division title. USC can still finish second in the South with a win over UCLA this week and will certainly want to avenge last season’s loss to the Bruins that sent their rivals to the title game. SC’s turnaround has become one of the best stories of the year and I think the team will cap it off with a win this week.

18) Fresno State

Fresno has clinched the West, but the Bulldogs are obviously looking for more. San Jose State shouldn’t be too much trouble, so now the focus shifts to the Mountain West title game. Boise State surprisingly lost to San Diego State, which could pit Fresno against Chuckie Keeton-less Utah State in a potentially walkover. I believe Fresno is the more deserving of the two mid-majors vying for a BCS berth, though NIU is currently ahead in the computer standings. It would be a shame if this team got left out.

19) Louisville

Gulp. Another tight win against a bad opponent. Louisville has done itself no favors by continuing to scrape by against the likes of Memphis. This is a good team and it’s surprising to see the Cardinals struggle so much to pull away from opponents they should be dominating. Perhaps that explains why UCF, not Louisville, is leading the American right now. Based on 2013’s results, this program might experience buyer’s remorse in a few years over the move to the ACC. It hasn’t looked pretty for Pitt and Syracuse.

20) Oklahoma

It wasn’t easy against K-State, but the win was on the road and it was by double digits so I suppose that’ll have to do. The Sooners can still ruin Oklahoma State’s dreams and force a tie for the conference title in the Bedlam Game, though with their losses to Texas and Baylor there’s no chance for a BCS bid. Given that the Cowboys host the rivalry game anyway, I doubt there’s much of a chance, but stranger things have happened in the Big 12. I rag on Bob Stoops sometimes, but passing Barry Switzer on the OU all-time wins list is a big deal.

21) Northern Illinois

Toledo is pretty good, so a comfortable road win is a feather in NIU’s cap. Let’s be honest: most of the regular-season schedule posed little threat to this team. It’s the MAC Championship we’re interested in, against the winner of the Bowling Green – Buffalo contest. The Huskies are quite good, but wild things tend to happen in the MAC title game, something NIU is rather familiar with. I predicted as much in the summer when I said BGSU would upset this team in Detroit. That scenario is still in play.

22) Texas A&M

Woof. I thought LSU could beat the Aggies, but I wasn’t expecting anything like that. All of A&M’s flaws were on full display in Baton Rouge: the lack of a running game, the ineffective downfield passing, the sieve-like D. This team is always a threat to explode offensively, but the strangely underreported truth is that outside of a turnover-aided flurry against Alabama in Week Two aTm hasn’t had any success against quality defenses. Mizzou qualifies. We’ll see what the Aggies can do this week.

23) UCLA

The blowout UCLA had to come back from was deceptive because of the turnovers the Bruins gave ASU, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Sun Devils largely looked in control. Many of the things I worried about earlier in the season were quite evident as UCLA struggled to keep the offense two-dimensional and allowed ASU to complete far too many passes with ease. This is still a good team, but it’s a flawed one, as results from conference play have shown. The showdown with USC ought to be very interesting.

24) Duke

Moment of truth: if the Blue Devils can beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill, they’ll do the unthinkable and win the ACC Coastal. That would set up a game with sure-to-be heavily-favored Florida State. For anyone that’s followed college football, the idea of Duke winning the ACC in football is downright laughable. Nine wins already make this season a smashing success for the Dukies; a division title (or… a conference title) would make it extraordinary. This team doesn’t do anything great but does a lot of things well.

25) Notre Dame

It was tough to find a worthy team for the last spot, but with a gritty win over BYU the Fighting Irish deserve a look. The losses don’t seem great any longer, but wins over Michigan State, ASU and USC (wow, really?) make Notre Dame a respectable squad. In that regard it’s been very strange season to watch for the Irish. High-quality efforts like the ones against the Pac-12 schools make the games against Pitt and Michigan all the more confusing. The team gets another chance to prove itself this week versus Stanford.

Pac-12 Report

As I said before, Oregon actually outgained Arizona but still managed to lose by 26 points. It never really felt as if the Ducks were in the game, even when they were moving the ball effectively. 9-2 is far from a lost season, but if that’s the way this team is going to show up (or fail to) even Oregon State could be a threat. It’s true that Marcus Mariota’s injury has somewhat hampered the offense, but Oregon is simply better than the way it’s been playing over the past month. On the other sideline, it’s hard to say ‘Zona “saved” its season given that the Wildcats lost to WSU just a week prior, but this was no doubt an important building block for the future of Rich Rodriguez’s program. With another year or two it’s not hard to see UA competing for the South title.

The most exciting news of the day (unless you’re a Stanford fan) was WSU backing up that upset of Arizona with a win over Utah to reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 2003. The long-suffering Cougars were up and down this season but managed to pull it off in Mike Leach’s second season. This is good for the Pac-12. As for Utah, well, the QB issues continue. The Utes haven’t finished a season with the same QB who started it since 2008. Not coincidentally, Utah went 13-0 that year. However, the problems are wider-ranging than simply QB health; Utah has had a difficult time adjusting to the increased competitiveness of a major conference and needs a couple more seasons to truly become an AQ-level school. It’s unfortunate, but it’s the truth.

Stanford took care of business against Cal fairly quickly, mercifully ending the Golden Bears’ season of torment and reclaiming the division title. There’s not much to say about Cal – the program has talent deficiencies across the board AND was hit by a wave of injuries – so let’s just assume things can only get better in Berkeley. Stanford’s exhibition with Notre Dame this week is now pretty meaningless, but the Cardinal would do well to remember the Pac-12 teams the Irish have already defeated this year. Stanford is certainly the better team and should win, especially if the Cardinal have revenge on their minds.

The game of the week was the South showdown between Arizona State and UCLA, which saw ASU capitalize on a slew of early miscues to take a big lead only to hold their breath as the Bruins came storming back. In the end the Sun Devils prevailed and claimed the division title, another impressive step for the program in Todd Graham’s second season. The rematch with Stanford will really be something to see. UCLA players can’t afford to hang their heads with USC up next. Bowl pecking order in still important and the Trojans are hot right now.

It was only Colorado, but give credit to USC for coming out swinging and putting the Buffaloes away fast. The South title was a little bit of a pipe dream anyway, but the Trojans should still be motivated to take out their rivals this week and extend the winning streak to six games. Getting to ten wins after everything that’s happened this year in L.A. would be an amazing accomplishment. CU had its slight bowl dreams dashed but can still reach 5-7 with a win over Utah this week. Yes, two of the wins would be over FCS schools and yes, the Buffs wouldn’t have actually beaten anyone of note. Considering where the program has been, though, five wins would be like a Rose Bowl. The first step for this team was to become competitive again and it has done that this season.

Washington at Oregon State was the nightcap and the Beavers continued their free-fall by getting smoked in their home finale. UW was the better team and was probably playing for the pride of not having another seven-win season, but what happened at Reser was just embarrassing. OSU’s early win streak has been revealed for what it really was and the truth behind the curtain isn’t pretty. The Beavs can take solace in the fact that Oregon is also playing bad football right now, but let’s be honest: a .500 finish is overwhelmingly likely. The Huskies, on the other hand, may have rejuvenated their season with the blowout and taken some of the heat off Steve Sarkisian. Just like in 2012, the team is 7-4 going into the Apple Cup and could reach nine wins with a couple more performances like the one Saturday night.

Next week features all the major rivalry games (except Stanford, though Notre Dame is kind of a rivalry). Friday features the Apple Cup and the Civil War, while Saturday has the Rumble in the Rockies, the Battle for L.A., the Territorial Cup and the aforementioned Stanford – Notre Dame tilt. (Side note: although UCLA – USC has traditionally been called the “Battle for the Victory Bell”, I much prefer the more contemporary “Battle for L.A.”) As far as winners go, rivalry games can be tricky – see last year’s Apple Cup – and it’s not easy to predict how much emotion will carry the day.

Washington should win the Apple Cup because the Huskies have more to play for. While the winner will get the better bowl regardless, Wazzu is (likely) thrilled to just reach bowl eligibility again. UW needs to rise above the seven-win ceiling and should be angry about last year’s loss, when the Huskies led by 18 at the start of the fourth quarter and melted down in spectacular fashion. Washington is also simply the better team, as WSU has only recently pulled itself out of the Pac-12 cellar.

Without question Oregon should win the Civil War. For all the frustration the Ducks have dealt with the past month, there’s no denying OSU has been much worse. The Beavers are on a four-game losing streak and haven’t been competitive in their last three games. UO has the weapons and scheme to break down OSU defensively, as they’ve shown in the past, as well as the secondary to match up with the Beavs’ air attack. The pass rush has been a concern of late, but make no mistake – this is still a stronger D than the ones OSU beat up on during that hot streak. Barring another awful performance, Oregon should win

I think Utah is a more talented team top-to-bottom than Colorado, but the Utes’ injury issues and recent struggles make me very tentative to pick them in this rekindled rivalry. CU has improved a great deal this season and played several teams more competitively than was expected. At first glance, I did want to take the Buffaloes in this game. However, after more consideration I’ll go with Utah. The Utes still have a lot of talent on the lines I don’t think CU can match and get the Buffs at home in a fierce environment for their new starting QB Sefo Liufau.

I’ve already said Stanford should be able to take care of Notre Dame, so on to UCLA and USC. This rivalry, easily the most overrated on the West Coast, can nevertheless make a return to prominence if the Bruins do their part by continuing to stay relevant at the same time as the Trojans. Early in the season it appeared UCLA would win this game by a big margin but things have changed quite dramatically since that time. Now it’s the Trojans who are the talk of the town and rolling to impressive wins. I’ve had a pretty good sense of where the Bruins are all season, picking their losses successfully, so I think I can do it again. USC completes the turnaround and wins.

And finally… the Territorial Cup, which has supplanted Oregon – Washington as the nastiest rivalry on the West Coast. The Wildcats aren’t in any position to ruin ASU’s season with a win, but they could make the Pac-12 Championship much more difficult for their rivals by denying them home-field advantage against Stanford. ASU has rebounded from a couple of uninspiring wins to rise all the way to the conference title game and would surely like to rub it in UA’s face while doing so. ‘Zona will be brimming with confidence after the Oregon game, but the Sun Devils have been really good this season and I don’t think they’ll let the chance for home-field slip away. ASU wins.

Heisman Watch

The Heisman race got absolutely bizarre last week. Oregon’s Marcus Mariota and Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel effectively played themselves out of the award with poor performances, which should have meant FSU’s Jameis Winston would be the runaway winner of college football’s most prestigious honor. However, the black cloud hanging over Winston’s sexual assault allegations makes this a very difficult situation. It seems increasingly likely that Winston will be charged, which certainly doesn’t prove his guilt but would make him almost untouchable for most voters. From a purely football standpoint, it’s sad that this has ruined what should have been the feel-good story of the year. For those reasons, I think it’s now quite possible that that award will go to Alabama’s A.J. McCarron, who has quietly put up excellent numbers for the nation’s top team and doesn’t have any of the on- or off-field black marks the other players have.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Before I get to the Stanzi’s, I just have to ask: has any player ever had more rotten luck than Georgia QB Aaron Murray? Not in recent memory. The poor guy will go down as one of the best QB’s in the history of the SEC but dealt with critics who contended he couldn’t win the big game. In his senior season, he finally broke though on that front only to see his offense shattered by catastrophic injury after catastrophic injury. Two weeks ago he led his team back from a massive deficit against rival Auburn only to lose on one of this generation’s defining impossible plays. Finally, he succumbed to the injury curse himself, tearing knee ligaments in a blowout win over Kentucky on Saturday. Murray might still go on to a nice pro career, but his time as a Bulldog was improbably, comically snake-bitten.

The final week of the regular season is here, which means it’s time to put up for all those Stanzi hopefuls out there. There’s still the possibility of a late surge from a QB playing next week, but with most of the biggest rivalry games happening over the Thanksgiving weekend the award will likely be decided sooner. With that in mind, here are this week’s winners and the (short) list of multi-week finalists:

Jake Rudock, Iowa

Opponent: Michigan

Performance: Three INT (one for TD), led team back from 14-point halftime deficit

Nathan Scheelhaase, Illinois

Opponent: Purdue

Permformance: Two INT (both in red zone), led two late drives for winning FG’s

2013 Stanzi Awards Finalists

Devin Gardner, Michigan: 2

Keith Wenning, Ball State: 2

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M: 2

Does Gardner have one more big turnover-fest in him? Can Manziel play his team both in and out of another game? Or will Wenning, the mid-major underdog, have something to say? All three will be in action this week.

With all the negativity coming out of Tallahassee, it’s great to see something lighthearted from the state of Florida. Gators fans have been understandably upset at the disastrous way Florida’s season has unfolded, but even they couldn’t resist laughing (if only in agony) at this hilarious moment that encapsulates everything that’s gone wrong for their team in 2013: teammates Quinton Dunbar and Jonotthan Harrison blocking each other during an otherwise successful play for the Gators. This video has exploded on the internet for good reason, though I’m partial to SBNation’s write-up, which also makes note of the poor Georgia Southern defender who tripped over himself at the goal line. Sometimes it’s good to remember how entertaining this game can be in more unconventional ways.

Some kind of madness

Ah, college football. What did we do to deserve such riches? The insanity of Georgia – Auburn, the surprisingly tightness of Alabama – Mississippi State, the Stanford – USC upset… it was another glorious weekend in The One True Sport. The midweek primers were just as fun, netting us the entertaining Ball State – NIU showdown and some Friday weirdness with Washington and UCLA. In all, it was enough to make up one of the best weeks of the season.

Early Saturday brought a glut of awful Big Ten blowouts and it appeared we were headed for a forgettable day. Then came Central Florida’s delightful comeback at Temple and we were off and running. The Knights’ dream season looked to be on the verge of collapse against the single-win Owls before J.J. Worton made a spectacular one-handed catch to tie the score at 36 with a minute to play. Then, in the blink of an eye, UCF got a stop, a defensive breakdown and the game-winning field goal. Just like that, the Knights’ BCS aspirations were saved. And that wasn’t the end of the excitement by a long shot.

Kansas ended its 27-game conference losing streak against West Virginia. North Carolina survived Pitt thanks to two punt return touchdowns from Ryan Switzer. Maryland knocked off Virginia Tech in overtime, which meant Duke’s win over Miami (FL) could end up sending Duke (yes, Duke!) to the ACC Championship. Washington State won at Arizona, which could send the Cougars back to the postseason for the first time in more than a decade. Michigan and Northwestern battled through four quarters and three overtimes of a field-goal fest before the Wolverines scored the winning TD. Kansas State won a wild, back-and-forth game with TCU. Then there was Georgia – Auburn.

First off, has any upperclassman quarterback done more to improve his draft stock than Aaron Murray this season? The senior’s poor record in big games was the lone black mark on his resume going into 2013. Murray has turned that criticism on its head with stellar performances all year despite an offense devastated by injuries. You had to feel for the guy Saturday. He did everything short of literally carry the team on his back (and in a pinch, he DID carry them on his back) to move the Bulldogs from 20 points down into the lead with less than a minute remaining. Then Georgia got hit with the Bluegrass Miracle 2.0. Unbelievable. Here’s the example for the next generation of defensive backs: KNOCK. IT. DOWN.

But the day was not done. None of the contenders could manage a comfortable victory, regardless of region, location or opponent quality. Louisville fought hard with Houston and finally pulled out a 20-13 win. Alabama could never get the offense going in a 20-7 win at Mississippi State. South Carolina nearly lost at home to Florida. Even Oregon and Baylor, who reached decent final margins, struggled a little against Utah and Texas Tech, respectively. At the end of the night came the upset that actually went through as USC knocked off Stanford (though this wasn’t a total shocker, which I’ll address later).

So where does this leave us? Three weeks remain in the regular season, which means the rivalry games really begin in earnest next week. This is the best time of the year for college football. Legacies of players and coaches alike will be defined in the second half of November. We’ve already seen it start with the fantastic finishes at the beginning of this month. Alabama and Florida State are still poised to meet in an epic BCS title clash, but as we’ve seen the past several weeks, you can never take anything for granted.

Top 25

1) Florida State

This was supposed to be the week when Alabama started closing the gap on FSU. Uh-uh. After yet another annihilation of an overmatched ACC opponent, the Seminoles actually increased their lead on the Tide. The off-field distractions… were not very distracting. We’ll see what happens in the future and follow the developing Jameis Winston story closely, but for now there’s no reason FSU deserves to be anywhere other than at the top of the polls.

2) Alabama

That was certainly not was I was expecting at Mississippi State, the second-worst team in the conference. Alabama, as has become distressingly common this season, couldn’t seem to ever get the offense started. It’s one thing to point out how defense is the SEC’s calling card, but I think Nick Saban would recoil at that excuse. The Crimson Tide simply don’t have quite the same caliber of offensive line as they did in 2012. I don’t think it will cost them against Auburn. FSU might be another story.

3) Ohio State

Another week, another big win that somehow raises more questions. Has this team played a truly complete game all year? There’s always something going wrong even when the Buckeyes are seemingly doing everything right. The quarterback play. The pass defense. Turnovers. The Big Ten is bad, though that’s not OSU’s problem. The problem is never looking good even when winning big. If you’re going to run through a down conference, you need to do it pretty. The Buckeyes are 22-0 under Urban Meyer and have more critics than ever.

4) Baylor

The Bears passed another test in Arlington, outgunning Texas Tech in another offensive explosion. It’s become clear the Red Raiders aren’t as good as their 7-0 start indicated but the blowout still looks good. Now comes the big one: a night game in Stillwater that will in all likelihood decide the Big 12 title. Oklahoma State has looked really good lately. Can Baylor continue to just outscore people? In this league, maybe. Underestimating the Cowboys would be a big mistake, though.

5) Oregon

It was a sluggish effort against Utah. The Ducks finally pulled away and, thanks to some help from USC, again control their own destiny in the Pac-12. Let’s be honest: neither Arizona nor Oregon State is close to Oregon’s level, but Marcus Mariota’s knee injury has thrown everything into disarray. Stanford and Utah both didn’t respect UO’s ground game without the read-option threat and future opponents will assuredly scheme the same way. Oregon is still good enough to win out, but that injury is a wild card.

6) Clemson

The Georgia Tech game was over almost as soon as it started. That leaves Clemson with a walkover against The Citadel before a season-ending trip to South Carolina. Winning out would mean a BCS bowl, but I honestly don’t know if this team can beat the Gamecocks. Carolina has won the last three, including games when the Tigers were favored. The up-tempo spread-‘em-out Clemson uses doesn’t seem to fare well against superior athletes on the other side. A loss would also erase the ACC’s goodwill from beating Georgia in the opener.

7) Missouri

I still have questions about Missouri, because the schedule has really been pretty light for the SEC. The Tigers’ big win is over a hobbled Georgia team, the Florida win means nothing anymore and Mizzou lost to South Carolina. The last games come against currently ranked opponents, and while I initially predicted Texas A&M would be the problem it would behoove Mizzou to focus on this week’s road game in Oxford. Ole Miss isn’t great, but the Rebels have played several good teams tough.

8) Oklahoma State

The West Virginia loss continues to baffle, but hey, everyone has bad days, right? It’s become abundantly clear the past few weeks that this week’s Baylor – OSU contest will match the two best teams in the Big 12, which is somewhat disappointing for the Big 12 but does provide a great late-season showdown to showcase the league. Defense is largely nonexistent in this conference, so expect nothing less than the shootiest of shootouts in Stillwater. If I had to pick, I’d go with Okie State. All-offense teams are bound to stumble eventually. Just ask the Cowboys.

9) Auburn

Well, that was very lucky. That’s football, though. Sometimes you win when you shouldn’t. It is worth noting that Auburn played very well through three quarters against Georgia, building a 20-point lead. This is a changed team from the start of the season. However, I don’t think the Tigers really have any chance versus Alabama, which makes the minor buzz around their BCS ranking irrelevant. Nick Marshall simply isn’t a good enough quarterback to beat ‘Bama. That’s the only thing that needs to be said.

10) Stanford

Oh, Stanford. You just can’t get out of your own way, can you? A lot of the blame falls on the offense for another atrocious performance against a defense that allegedly used only 13 players the entire game. Some more goes to the coaching staff for pass-heavy game plan (relatively speaking) eerily similar to the one from the Utah loss. Yet ultimately the brunt of the criticism should go to the system itself, something I’ll get into more later. For now the Cardinal must win out for an outside shot at a BCS bowl.

11) South Carolina

Quite frankly, not enough attention is being paid to the Gamecocks. This weekend brought a lackluster win over plummeting Florida, but with Coastal Carolina on deck (curse you, SEC!) and a home finale against Clemson – where Carolina deserves to be favored – it’s very possible this squad could make the BCS. They might even sneak into the SEC title game, as Missouri’s last two games are fairly nasty. At that point I don’t know how you could keep the Gamecocks out. The SEC is getting two BCS bids. Alabama is one.

12) Michigan State

Sparty rides again! Michigan State gave up more than 20 points for just the second time in 2013 but still fought out a double-digit win at Nebraska, setting the stage for a delightful Legends Division showdown with Minnesota to end the season. The Golden Gophers can still make the Big Ten Championship, though it’s an unlikely scenario as MSU would have to lose to Northwestern this week before falling to Minnesota. The Gophers would also have to beat Wisconsin this week. Still, stranger things have happened.

13) Texas A&M

The Aggies got a week off before season-ending trips to LSU and Missouri. This is where A&M finally has a chance to impress. The close loss to ‘Bama is worthless at this point and aTm hasn’t beaten anyone of value all year. That would change with wins in Baton Rouge and Columbia. I suppose there’s still an outside shot at a BCS game as well, but the route to get there is somewhat convoluted. It’s all academic without wins, anyway. Can the D stop LSU from running it down their throat? We’ll see.

14) UCF

Talk about close calls. Only Auburn got luckier than UCF this weekend, though when playing Temple perhaps “luck” isn’t the right term. It’s more a matter of waiting until the Owls self-destruct. The American almost got really interesting before the heroics of one J.J. Worton, Esquire. I think I jinxed the Knights by calling for them to win the league last week. No matter! I’ll do it again! To be fair, there’s not a guaranteed win on the rest of the schedule. Rutgers and SMU are average but capable of pulling an upset and the rivalry game with USF won’t be easy.

15) Louisville

Interestingly, the thing we’ve learned over the past month is that the AAC isn’t just a two-team league. Houston, despite losses to UCF and Louisville, has emerged as a legitimate quality team out in the American. Calm down, Cardinals. It still won’t be enough to boost you into a BCS at-large spot. For that to happen Louisville would need to beat teams (like Houston) by more than a TD. I see this group going 11-1 but getting shut out of the top-tier bowls. Things will be different next year in the ACC.

16) Wisconsin

Indiana’s really bad, but the Hoosiers have been scoring on everyone, so give Wisconsin some credit for giving up just three points. The Arizona State Problem is going to haunt this team up until the second the BCS participants are announced, but I think a bigger problem might be Michigan State. Good as the Badgers have been, MSU has been better. The Spartans are also poised to win their division. If MSU wins out it would be hard to justify Wisconsin in a BCS bowl, even if the Spartans lost to Ohio State in the conference championship.

17) LSU

The Tigers finally got a week off and now face Texas A&M in a game to decide bowl positioning and divisional bragging rights. LSU was one of two SEC teams to shut down the Aggies last season and that was in College Station. The Bayou Bengals’ defense is far removed from that level, but playing at home after a bye should be a boost. I expect LSU to pound RB Jeremy Hill into the middle of the A&M defense all day long. It will be interesting to see how the Aggies try to stop it.

18) Arizona State

The Sun Devils finally get a minor jump, as they proved against Oregon State they could win while not playing their best game. This could be seen as a warning sign, given that ASU has been less than impressive the past two weeks, but there’s not really any reason to downgrade the team seeing as this week will decide the season anyway. Arizona State – UCLA will be the game of the year in the South and will almost definitely decide the division champion, just as it did last season. In that game, UCLA won a wild shootout, 45-43, in the desert.

19) USC

The Trojans are on a roll. Since taking over for Lane Kiffin, Ed Orgeron has guided SC to a 5-1 record, including five straight in Pac-12 play after an 0-2 start. A win over Colorado is pretty much a sure thing, so USC has to be rooting for rival UCLA this week. If the Bruins can take down ASU, the Battle For L.A. will decide the South title. I’m not sure there’s any team in the country playing better than the Trojans right now. It may not remove the “interim” tag from Orgeron, but it’s been very impressive to watch.

20) UCLA

Beating Washington Friday night should have cemented UCLA’s status as a quality team, but it really only raised more questions. The Huskies lost two fumbles early and QB Keith Price at the half. By all rights, the Bruins should have walked away with an easy win. Instead, UW kept hanging around and making a game of it. If it wasn’t for those early fumbles, UCLA could have easily lost a contest they had no business losing. This echoed similar performances against Utah and Arizona. I’m not confident in the Bruins right now.

21) Oklahoma

A blowout of Iowa State doesn’t impress anybody. The Sooners’ marquee wins – Notre Dame and Texas Tech – have both been devalued by those teams’ slides. The weakness of the Big 12 has become more and more apparent as Texas, Texas Tech and OU have all bowed out of the conference race. At this point it's difficult to say what we have with this conference any more. Are Baylor and Oklahoma State really elite? Or are they just scoring a lot because no one in the Big 12 plays any defense? This is starting to look like the Big Ten South.

22) Fresno State

New Mexico and San Jose State are all that stands between an undefeated regular season and a rematch with Boise State to reach a BCS bowl. Safe to say, the Bulldogs will be heavily favored to reach 11-0 (the 12^th game with Colorado was canceled because of flooding in Boulder). Playing Boise a second time will be no picnic; Chris Petersen knows what he’s doing and Broncos nearly got the win in Fresno earlier in the year. Still, this is still the favorite among mid-majors to make the BCS.

23) Northern Illinois

NIU notched a big win over Ball State that should send the Huskies to an undefeated regular season, but don’t be fooled by the final score. NIU tacked on two late TD’s (one on a pick-six) to make the game look like a blowout. It was anything but; in fact, for large portions of the game Ball State looked like the superior team. In any case, the MAC Championship is nearly clinched. We’ll see what voters think of this team at that point. The schedule doesn’t really do the Huskies any favors.

24) Ole Miss

Texas isn’t really a good win… LSU has lost a few… hmm. Ole Miss’ resume is still stronger than a lot of other teams’, and with a big game against Mizzou this week the Rebels will get a chance to bolster their reputation. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled the upset. Missouri is definitely a better team, but a road conference game is almost never a gimme and Ole Miss has played some good football over the past month. The finale is rival Mississippi State, if anyone cares.

25) Duke

I can scarcely believe it myself, but Duke (yes, Duke!) is in my top 25. The Blue Devils seemed destined for a nice season with a few losses and a mid-tier bowl a few weeks into the ACC schedule after they lost their opening two conference games. Now the unthinkable has happened: after six straight wins (four in league play), including upsets of Virginia Tech and Miami (FL), Duke (yes, Duke!) is poised to win the Coastal and face Florida State in the ACC Championship. All the Blue Devils need is wins over Wake Forest and North Carolina. Crazy.

Pac-12 Report

I already covered the Washington – UCLA game a little earlier. Once again, even though UCLA won, it was hard to feel very good about it. There have been several games this season that caused me to question the Bruins’ credibility – the uncompetitive losses to Oregon and Stanford, the near-misses against Utah and Arizona, now this. I don’t think this team has the ability to put people away and it’s going to be costly if the Bruins perform that way against ASU.

In a rare early game for the Pac-12, WSU defeated Arizona in Tucson. This was a huge win for Cougars and the Pac-12; as I said last week, Wazzu probably needed this game to reach bowl eligibility. Now all that’s left is a home win over reeling Utah and the Cougs will be back in the postseason for the first time since 2003! (There’s also another chance versus Washington in Seattle, but if I’m WSU I don’t want to need that win.) It would be great for the program if Wazzu made it back to a bowl, obviously, but it would also help the conference to get yet another team on TV over the holidays. As for Arizona, the Wildcats are already bowl-eligible, so it doesn’t matter too much, though I’m sure they’d have preferred a win.

Oregon had some trouble with Utah early before predictably pulling away in the second half. The Ducks’ front seven is a real concern at this point. Utah has a good offensive line, but Oregon hasn’t been getting pressure on any QB’s lately and can’t seem to get off the field on third down. Offensively, the “struggles” are fairly obvious: Marcus Mariota is hobbled and the running game has suffered. That’s it. There’s no secret formula beyond the fact that Utah and Stanford both recognized this and played good defense against it. Oregon should still have enough to win out and (now) make the Pac-12 Championship.

Utah’s troubles are harder to discern. The Utes aren’t consistently running or passing and are good, but not great, defensively. There seems to be no real identity on either side, which makes the last two games scary. Needing two wins to reach a bowl, the Utes get Wazzu and Colorado. In the past such games would cause a sigh of relief, but not only have the Cougs and Buffs improved, Utah appears to be on the decline. This week’s game in Pullman has a lot riding on it for both teams and should be a good matchup.

Colorado continued Cal’s woes with a walk-off win in Boulder that kept alive CU’s slim chances for the postseason. With wins over USC and Utah (unlikely), Colorado would actually make a bowl. I doubt that happens, so take the positives from the Cal game. Faced with a bottom-feeder of similar repute, the Buffaloes broke open a 10-10 second-quarter tie to run away with their first league win in more than a year. The defense held for three quarters and the offense broke out for the second time since Sefo Liufau was named the starting QB. There’s pieces here for the future.

Cal, on the other hand… it doesn’t get much worse for the Golden Bears, now 1-10 with a beatdown from an angry Stanford team coming. The one win was a seven-point escape against FCS foe Portland State and outside of a five-point margin to Arizona the team hasn’t lost by less than two touchdowns to any opponent. Injuries have riddled the Golden Bears, but they’re clearly just really bad, too. With a full offseason in Sonny Dykes’ system, maybe they can turn things around.

The game of the week was Stanford going down in the Coliseum, a result that makes what I wrote last week look rather prescient. My entire point – that Stanford was a team built to stop Oregon, but not win a championship – was proved by USC, who had the bodies up front defensively to stop the Cardinal’s bully tactics and the skill players to beat the weakness of the Stanford D (the secondary). Once again, the issue with Stanford is that the team can only win one way: getting out in front early, winning the turnover battle and playing completely mistake-free. When a team matches power to the Cardinal’s power, they have no ability to adjust. The offense is a mess and something would have sounded absurd early this season (USC having a better QB than Stanford) was on full display in L.A.

USC has been playing superb football over the last two months, to the point that I’m not sure they wouldn’t be the favorite to win the Pac-12 if they manage to come out of the South. The defense has returned to its stingy ways after a mid-season hiccup, while the offense is finally producing consistently enough to not lose games. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this team win out. If UCLA beats Arizona State, the Trojans will be in business.

ASU topped Oregon State in the nightcap in a sloppy, forgetful game. OSU certainly wants to forget about it. After starting 6-1, the Beavers have dropped three straight and look lost offensively. I’ll reiterate what I said a month ago: OSU is the same team we always thought they were (thank you, Denny). The Beavs have a good (but not great) QB, decent skill players and an average O-line. The defense is somewhere between average and pretty good. Playing a bunch of patsies made OSU look like world-beaters, now they’re regressing to the mean. Pretty standard stuff. ASU, on the other hand, managed to win despite failing to take advantage of some OSU miscues and is now poised to win the South with a victory at UCLA this week. The Sun Devils have really come a long way from the undisciplined Dennis Erickson days.

Next week features a trio of midday games, led by Oregon at Arizona. There are some scary historical parallels here: Oregon, going to Tucson with an injured QB, needing a win to stay alive for the Pac-12 title. ‘Zona, for its part, has a nice running game and an unorthodox defense that could confuse the Ducks. However, in the end it’s foolish to bet against UO. Given new life in the conference race, Oregon is simply too good at every level on offense and defense to allow Ka’Deem Carey to win this game by himself. B.J. Denker has progressed this season but the ‘Cats QB is still too erratic to be a real threat.

Utah – Washington State could end up being a great one, with both teams needing a win to reach the postseason. The faithful at Martin Stadium have been waiting a decade for this and the Pac-12’s most underrated stadium will be rocking. I’m not sure about the outcome. Utah has been up and down and the QB situation is in flux. News this week out of Salt Lake City is that Travis Wilson has a pre-existing, potentially career-ending ailment. Besides being very disappointing, this could end the Utes’ postseason chances. The defense does have a lot of talent and could limit the blizzard of hitches, drags and flares Mike Leach likes to run. Wazzu should be able to hold form defensively themselves and keep the Utes to a respectable amount of yards and points, potentially turning the game into a slugfest. Despite my misgivings, I’m going with the Cougars, who seem destined to finally break through.

The Big Game starts shortly after the first two league contests and I don’t know if I can ever recall a more depressing set-up. Cal is dreadful, coming in at 1-10, and just wants the season to be over with. Stanford is back at home, angry at losing to USC and vastly superior. This could get really ugly. I’m not sure the Cardinal will need to throw the ball a single time. It’s entirely possible the ground-and-pound could run the ball 60 times while the defense shuts out the poor Bears. Hide the children.

4:00 p.m. marks the kickoff of Arizona State – UCLA, a rematch of the South’s best game in 2012 and the likely decider of a division champion for a third straight year. Both teams arrive at 8-2 and nationally ranked, though under different circumstances. ASU weathered a beatdown from Stanford and a sloppy game against Notre Dame in Arlington to otherwise survive a brutal schedule that also featured Wisconsin, USC and Washington. UCLA got what appeared to be an impressive non-conference win early at Nebraska, but has done little since and lost to Stanford and Oregon.

There’s a reason I have ASU higher in my rankings. I think the Sun Devils are a better team and should favored. UCLA isn’t bad by any means and could certainly win, but has also been very inconsistent offensively and suffered some injuries that could finally hurt this week. The QB’s are roughly equal: both Taylor Kelly and Brett Hundley have justifiably had some hype this year but are also not on an elite level. The biggest thing for me is the eye test. ASU has looked so good recently (Utah excluded). The offense goes flying down the field, the defense holds people in check, what’s not to like? The Bruins, comparatively, seem to work so hard to produce on offense and the defense comes and goes. UCLA is capable of winning, but I’m going with ASU.

USC and Colorado is a game that few people will be watching, understandably so. The Buffaloes have made a nice turnaround this season, looking much more competitive in the conference and even remaining alive for bowl eligibility into November. That alone should be cause for celebration. But let’s be realistic. This is USC and Colorado. The Trojans are on fire right now and should light up the CU defense en route to a comfortable win. Injuries aside, there’s a lot of talent on the other side of the ball too, which should limit what the Buffs can do offensively.

Oregon State has clearly angered the Pac-12 scheduling gods (how else can you explain so many night games?). The Beavers get stumbling Washington in one final chance to save their season before the Civil War. The Huskies, for their part, have gone 2-4 since a 4-0 start. OSU has looked pretty bad lately, but coming back home against another team from the Northwest could provide a shot in the arm. The big question is Husky QB Keith Price. He’s not slated to even throw in practice until Thursday and will be evaluated at the end of the week. With a healthy Price, I’d take UW. With freshman Cyler Miles at the helm – on the road, in his first start – I’d be much more tentative. Washington is overall the better team, as seen by strong showings at Stanford and UCLA with a backup at QB. However, the Beavs could be due for a bounce-back game, and if Price is out, all bets are off. This could decide third place in the North.

Heisman Watch

I’ll say the same thing I have for weeks.

Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

I’ll address Winston’s off-field concerns shortly.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The play of the week was J.J. Worton’s one-handed snag to save UCF, but a close runner-up was Michigan’s incredible scramble to get off a game-tying field goal with no time left against Northwestern. Getting the field goal unit on the field and set in 10 seconds is beyond difficult. The fact that the Wolverines managed to complete a long pass, evacuate the offense and snap the ball with time still remaining is a minor miracle. Major props to coach Brady Hoke and his staff for preparing their team for that situation.

Speaking of good coaching, USC’s Ed Orgeron deserves a mention. All he’s done since replacing Lane Kiffin is return the Trojans to national prominence despite dealing with injuries that would have crippled 90 percent of the teams in the country. He deserves consideration for national coaching honors. However, the idea that he should be the permanent head coach for the Trojans is short-sighted. A lot of teams in sports history have played better after changing coaches. I believe Orgeron when he says he’s learned a lot since the Ole Miss fiasco, but the USC job is simply better than him. The program can attract just about anyone in the country, including a superior (and more proven) coach than Orgeron.

Jameis Winston’s sexual assault allegations obviously cast a shadow over what had been the best story of the year. There are many unanswered questions at this point regarding what role, if any, Winston played, the description of the alleged attacker, why it took nearly a year for the case to come to light and what Florida State knew and when the school knew it. Sexual assault is a serious crime, so obviously if Winston is charged his Heisman chances and eligibility at FSU would immediately be in jeopardy. Normally such a situation would be enough to make me drop Winston from my Heisman list, as character is supposed to be one of the main criterion for the award. However, in this particular case I’m compelled to wait for two reasons. First, Winston has not yet been charged with anything or even questioned by the police, apparently. Second, the state will decide whether to charge Winston in the next couple weeks, so we’ll know about his status by the end of the regular season.

It’s time to make the cut for the finalists of the Stanzis. I’ll still keep including the new weekly winners in case someone makes a late push, but it seems best to limit the list to players with multiple awards. Michigan’s Devin Gardner broke my heart again this week, squeaking out an overtime win but failing to account for a single turnover in the process. Come on! It was right there for the taking!

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan

Opponent: Western Michigan

Performance: Three INT, threw go-ahead TD pass

2013 Stanzi Awards Finalists

Devin Gardner, Michigan: 2

Keith Wenning, Ball State: 2

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M: 2

These gents have the distinct honor of being the only three players with multiple Stanzis so far this season. Gardner is still the leader due to his Double Stanzi tiebreaker, but make no mistake: this thing is wide open. There's three weeks of football left and anything could happen.

Next week: Strap up. Another big MAC showdown awaits on Wednesday night when NIU goes to Toledo. The Rockets have gone under the radar but can still force a tie for or win outright the division title. Thursday sees UCF take on another challenger in the American determined to end their run: Rutgers. Duke could potentially clinch the Coastal with a win over Wake Forest Saturday morning, while sneaky Cincinnati looks to move to 6-1 in the AAC with a big game at Houston.

Most of the early weekend games are atrocious, but the day picks up with the noon slate. Oregon – Arizona. BYU – Notre Dame. Texas A&M – LSU. Wisconsin – Minnesota (this is a good game, believe me). The Bowl Bowl (Utah – WSU). The Big Game. ASU – UCLA. Missouri – Ole Miss. And in primetime, the battle for the Big 12: Baylor – Oklahoma State. If you would have told me ten years ago that one day Baylor and OSU would be playing a winner-take-all for the conference title, I’d have eaten my hat. And I don’t even wear a hat! Enjoy the fireworks.

Into the fire

The nature of the beast, eh? College football is an unforgiving sport, something that was never more apparent than last week. It’s marvelous to see the game continue to surprise year after year. Just when you think you’ve got everything figured out, the landscape gets turned on its head again. For example, this week: Oregon was the fraud? Baylor is for real? Texas Tech isn’t top-25 material? Crazy. That’s what makes college football great.

Stanford dominating Oregon for more than three quarters was the main story of the week. The Cardinal held the ball for 42 minutes and pounced on a multitude of UO miscues to lead 26-0 midway through the fourth, when they very nearly gave away the game in stunning fashion. Baylor’s victory over Oklahoma was also huge. After a slow start, the Bears dominated the Sooners, who reverted to their bumbling Red River Rivalry ways and were knocked out of the Big 12 race.

Of course, no weekend without a series of shakeups would be complete without Alabama looking immune to such mortal concerns. Despite getting outplayed by LSU in the first half, the Crimson Tide raced to a big win in their final legitimate challenge of the regular season. Auburn is left on the schedule, but I don’t think the Tigers are balanced enough offensively to be a real threat. With Florida State also on cruise control, a Tide – Seminoles matchup in the title game seems imminent.

Still, as last week showed, you can never take anything for granted. Ohio State still lurks in the background for any kind of slip-up (though the Buckeyes may have their hands full with Michigan State in the near future). Injuries and misfortune can strike at any moment, which is what makes an undefeated season so difficult and ‘Bama’s current run so impressive. There’s still nearly a month to go! Who knows what might happen between now and the conference championships?

Top 25

1) Florida State

Impressed though I was with Alabama’s win, I still find FSU’s resume more impressive. LSU already had two losses and isn’t a better victory than Clemson. Virginia Tech’s continuing schizophrenic act doesn’t help the Tide, either. The rankings will change if both teams stay undefeated through the end of the season, but for now the ‘Noles have looked more impressive than anyone. Speaking of which, remember when Wake Forest beat FSU 30-0? I think Florida State did, beating up on the Demon Deacons 59-3 on Saturday.

2) Alabama

The Crimson Tide had skated by on a largely average schedule until last week. It’s hard to say what the Texas A&M win really means other than the fact that it came in a tough environment and as I said before, Virginia Tech is questionable. LSU is the most complete team the Tide have faced this year and ‘Bama went right through the Tigers in the second half. The SEC can be nasty, but it certainly appears this team is headed for 12-0. With Mizzou (or South Carolina) on deck for the SEC Championship, the road ahead is fairly clean.

3) Ohio State

Illinois can’t score, Indiana can’t defend and Michigan can’t do either. On a bad day. On a good day, though, the Wolverines could theoretically give the Buckeyes a lot of trouble. Assuming OSU gets to 11-0 without incident, the rivalry game might actually end up being closer than people think. Michigan has a very good, if sloppy, offense and could turn the contest into a shootout in Ann Arbor. However, the Buckeyes will be favored for good reason and will likely finish the regular season undefeated.

4) Stanford

It was hard to put Stanford ahead of an undefeated team from another power conference. What gives the Cardinal the edge is the fact that Baylor has played only eight games, as well as the value of Stanford’s win over Oregon. Despite underachieving for much of the season, this squad is poised to repeat as North and Pac-12 champions… provided they get past USC this week. That isn’t a foregone conclusion by any means. The wins are there for the taking, though.

5) Baylor

Well, a minor mea culpa is in order. I haven’t been particularly demonstrative about it, but I was certainly less than bullish about Baylor’s chances of keeping the wins coming against the meat of the Big 12. That task became a lot easier when the Bears disposed of Oklahoma Thursday night. As I said last week, the Sooners were probably the most talented team in the conference, if not the best. That might still be Oklahoma State, but as the league’s last unbeaten Baylor deserves the credit right now.

6) Oregon

Oof. The Ducks took the worst parts of their upset loss to Stanford in 2012 and multiplied them tenfold for Thursday’s game. The ill-timed turnovers, the inability to get Stanford’s ground-and-pound attack off the field, the missed scoring opportunities… all were on full display in Palo Alto. Oregon has nobody to blame but themselves, as the Cardinal simply out-willed UO for most of the game. A BCS bowl and Pac-12 title are still in the mix, but the Ducks’ fate is no longer in their hands.

7) Clemson

The Tigers are officially out of the ACC race, though it was obvious that was inevitable ever since the FSU massacre. This team is still fighting for a BCS bid, though, and can also have an impact on who meets the Seminoles in the title game. Will it really matter? After the Seminoles’ near-disaster last year against Georgia Tech, maybe. Guess who Clemson gets this week? The Yellow Jackets! My Ramblin’ Wreck are gunning for FSU again, no doubt. A Clemson win would send Virginia Tech to face the ‘Noles.

8) Missouri

Mizzou continues to impress, this week beating up on hapless Kentucky (a litmus test of sorts for quality SEC teams) to move one step closer to a stunning SEC Championship appearance. The season-ending meeting with Texas A&M remains the big question mark. Will Missouri’s D win the day and force the Aggies into a lower-scoring contest, or will A&M’s offense make it a shootout? The Tigers would prefer the former, but are capable of winning either way thanks to the emergence of quarterback Maty Mauk.

9) Auburn

The Tigers’ dominant rushing attack has boosted them to a 9-1 record. Now, a nasty final two: Georgia and Alabama. While the Bulldogs aren’t what they once were, they’re still dangerous. Then, of course, there’s ‘Bama. It’s entirely reasonable to believe this team could be 10-1 before the Iron Bowl, but even with two weeks off (seriously?) it’s hard to see Auburn winning the West. QB Nick Marshall has been a revelation in the option game but his passing credentials are rather spotty.

10) Oklahoma State

OSU has won five straight since the debacle in Morgantown and controls its own destiny in the Big 12 race. Next up is conference leader Texas, the final road game before home showdowns with Baylor and Oklahoma. The Longhorns are 7-2 but haven’t really beaten any great teams, so calling for a Cowboys win doesn’t seem too outlandish. Clint Chelf seems to have finally stabilized the QB position, which means this squad might be rounding into form right at the right time.

11) South Carolina

Florida looks done. The Gamecocks got a week off and can still win the East with a little help, so they should hardly be lacking in motivation. No matter who plays QB for Carolina I feel confident going forward with this team. The finale with Clemson is going to be a lot of fun and, like seemingly half the SEC, a BCS bid is still in play. Despite Carolina’s struggles this year, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Gamecocks at 10-2 when the smoke clears. Could it be enough for a BCS bowl?

12) Michigan State

This is it for the Spartans. Beat Nebraska and the Spartans are essentially assured of a date with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. I think MSU gets it done. Even in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers have just been too uneven this year. I doubt anyone left on the schedule can seriously challenge this absurdly great defense, though OSU would likely prove a more interesting test. For the sake of that great matchup, everyone should be rooting for the Spartans this week.

13) UCF

Whew. Central Florida looked to have Houston on the ropes but could only watch in horror as the Cougars fought back and nearly took the lead in the final seconds. The Knights survived and advanced and now get a delightful final month to close out a BCS bid. None of UCF’s final four opponents have a winning record in AAC play and only Rutgers has a winning record overall. I think it’s safe to call it: UCF is winning the American. How about a rematch with South Carolina? I’d watch that game.

14) Louisville

It’s nice that Louisville still has so much confidence, but there’s not much the Cardinals can do to sway voters’ minds at this point. The ‘Ville doesn’t control its own destiny and doesn’t deserve a BCS berth with the schedule it has played. That’s tough to swallow because this is more or less an elite team. Still, the Cardinals knew what the deal was when they signed up for the American – win and you’re in – and they failed. The AAC is far too weak to allow an at-large bid.

15) Texas A&M

The Aggies get a week off before facing LSU and Missouri to end the season. A lot could change between now and then. A 10-win A&M team would likely draw BCS attention, while an 8-4 record would relegate the Aggies to a minor bowl. The SEC has reaped the benefit of aTm’s explosive offense but somehow been immune to criticism of the porous D. It’s that side of the ball that will cause this team to be the underdog in both of its remaining games. Giving up 30-plus a game will do that.

16) UCLA

UCLA was probably never that good to begin with and injuries have started to take their toll. Of course, when you can insert Myles Jack into the power-back position and have the linebacker rush for 20 yards a carry, you don’t need running backs. The Bruins held off a spirited effort from Arizona this week to notch a key road win, but they’ll need to be better to have a chance at winning the South. The remaining schedule – Washington, ASU, at USC – is brutal. UCLA has to win all three.

17) Wisconsin

Not a bad win at all over BYU. The Cougars are likely the best independent out there in 2013 and Wisconsin controlled the game from start to finish. Badgers fans are understandably upset about the implications the ASU loss might have on their postseason fate, though there’s little sense worrying about that until the regular season ends. I have faith this team will be rewarded for a quality year, provided the voters recognize what was essentially a single-loss campaign.

18) LSU

What might have been? Had the Tigers not lost the ball twice in the early going and been able to build a double-digit lead, things might have gone differently in Tuscaloosa. Alas, it wasn’t to be and LSU simply became another speed bump for Alabama’s rampaging machine. This team is now in unfamiliar territory, with three losses on the register and two games left to play. It’s a good thing Arkansas fell apart this year, or the Tigers could have gone the way of Florida.

19) Oklahoma

Now I remember why I resolved never to trust Oklahoma again: the performances in big games! Despite a considerable size advantage in the trenches, OU was pushed around by Baylor, continuing a disturbing trend in the latter part of the Stoops era. The Sooners will have now gone a full two seasons without a Big 12 title, the longest stretch since changing coaches at the end of the millennium. Does it feel like this program is on the decline? Unfortunately, yes.

20) Arizona State

I think Arizona State is probably better than a few of the teams I have above it (like Pac-12 South peer UCLA), but I’m not quite willing to offer up superior pole position considering that the Sun Devils should have lost in Salt Lake City. True, Utah is better at home (not unlike ASU). Still, you can expect more from a team that’s playing for a conference championship. ASU has the talent to win the division and the easier schedule than UCLA. This squad just needs to learn to finish.

21) USC

I wouldn’t have moved the Trojans this high without good reason. After all, they do have three losses. However, the change in performance over the last month and a half has been remarkable (it turns out Lane Kiffin wasn’t getting the most out of his players!) and this team is dangerous right now. SC has won four of five since the ASU meltdown, with the only loss a sloppy game the team gave away at Notre Dame. A South title is unlikely, but a second-place finish is attainable.

22) Fresno State

I’m glad I changed my tune about the pitfall potential of the Wyoming game a few weeks back, although the Cowboys did that for me with a couple of awful performances leading up to last week’s blowout. Fresno was actually challenged early in Laramie, but the Bulldogs’ offense proved to be far too much to handle. Also impressive: since the 37-point showing against winless Hawai’i (a performance for which I called out the defense), Fresno is giving up less than 18 points per game over the last five.

23) Northern Illinois

It’s finally here! The long-awaited showdown between MAC West teams Ball State and NIU has arrived and both teams did their part by going undefeated in league play to this point. The Wednesday matchup (mark your calendars) features a pair of top-level mid-major offenses, though the Huskies favor the ground game while the Cardinals go to the air. NIU will likely go 12-0 into the MAC Championship with a win, so this game has BCS implications as well. Should be a barnburner.

24) Miami (FL)

I’ll be honest. Without RB Duke Johnson, this team might not deserve to be ranked. The Virginia Tech loss was painful, because we know the Hurricanes have been better than the Hokies this season. Without their star, though, it was inevitable that the offense would regress. I predicted as much last week. With two losses the ‘Canes are technically still in the ACC race, but because the schedule was backlogged the team also only has three league wins. It would take a minor miracle Miami to bounce back from this.

25) Ole Miss

Ole Miss got the last spot almost by default. The other candidates (Texas, BYU, Virginia Tech) have all suffered embarrassing losses at some point, something the Rebels have managed to avoid. In fact, you could argue this team should be 8-1 with wins over Auburn and Texas A&M. As it stands, Ole Miss actually did beat both Texas and LSU, which counts for something. In a lesser conference, this young and talented team might have actually made some real noise this year.

Pac-12 Report

The elephant in the room is Oregon – Stanford, so let’s get that one out of the way. Stanford made the Ducks look terrible for three-plus quarters, shutting down the run game for the second straight year and embarrassing Oregon at the point of attack. It mattered little that the Cardinal couldn’t throw. They were content to merrily run power-left, power-right, for four yards a pop. It worked better than even Stanford expected. Oregon had no ability to get its defense off the field and was sloppy with the ball on its few possessions.

The question being asked this week is whether Oregon can ever win a national championship with its current style. The answer is yes and no. In its simplest form, it’s a very stupid question. UO went to the BCS title game not three years ago and lost by a field goal. It can be done. However, the team’s struggles with power-run offenses do highlight the weaknesses of Oregon’s scheme. The Ducks have gotten bigger up front but will need to continue to recruit top-level linemen to take that final step.

It’s also important to note that Stanford’s approach isn’t the end-all, either. Stanford is not winning a national championship any sooner than Oregon because the Cardinal are also flawed. Against a program capable of matching their big bodies (like Alabama or Florida State), the Cardinal’s one-dimensional offense gets exposed. Stanford has been specifically built to stop Oregon, which makes sense given how the Ducks dominated the conference. However, it’s not the same as creating a true championship-caliber team.

The same thing happened to West Virginia in the waning years of the Big East: after years of dominance, schools tweaked their defenses to beat the Mountaineers. Those schools weren’t making BCS games, but they had a chance to beat the conference’s alpha team. Stanford’s approach is a similar return to the sectionalism that built college football and had been somewhat destroyed by the BCS system. Now it’s the rest of the Pac-12’s turn to adjust to Stanford.

In California news, the Golden Bears were slaughtered again, this time at home by USC. This wouldn’t be noteworthy other than the fact that it demonstrates just how good the Trojans are looking since the Kiffin firing. SC is on a major tear and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them win out, even with their schedule. More on that later, but for now, focus on Cal and Colorado. This week! Folsom Field! Two winless squads duke it out for… whatever the exact opposite of supremacy is. Inferiority? Humiliating supplication? The Buffaloes, by the way, lost 59-7 to Washington, which is included in this paragraph so I don’t have to waste any more time on it.

Arizona State got mighty fortunate to escape Utah with a win. The Utes are much more formidable at home, so it’s not surprising they played well, but after the way the Sun Devils seemed to shake their road curse at WSU the previous week the outcome was eyebrow-raising. In the end, ASU notched a W it probably shouldn’t have and kept alive its chances of playing for the Pac-12 title. Oregon State this week is the final North opponent on the schedule, so if this group can take care of business at home they’ll be fighting UCLA for the South title in Pasadena next week.

The Bruins also managed a difficult road win, though in different circumstances. With apologies to the MUSS (Mighty Utah Student Section, or so they call themselves), ‘Zona is a tougher place to play and a nastier environment. The Wildcats went toe-to-toe with UCLA, but were undone by… running back Myles Jack? The Bruins’ freshman LB turned in one of the great two-way performances the nation has seen in the past several years, rushing for 120 yards and the clinching touchdown on just six carries while also recording eight tackles AND a fumble recovery in the end zone. Poor Arizona. There’s no defense against a performance like that.

This week: the conference is chock-full of good material. Friday night Washington travels to UCLA for a very important game for both teams. The Huskies need a win to prove their seven-win days are done, while the Bruins have to stay on pace with ASU in the South. What will give? UCLA has been the higher-touted team this season, but I’m not sure there’s really that much different about the two squads. Both lost to Oregon and Stanford and only Washington made those games truly close. The small difference in records is UW’s loss to ASU, a team the Bruins haven’t played yet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Huskies win this game.

Wazzu at Arizona promises to be an interesting and probably high-scoring matchup. The wheels have somewhat come off the proverbial WSU bandwagon – if only they’d won the Auburn game! – and the Cougars need this game badly to get to bowl eligibility. Arizona and Utah are inferior to the Washington team WSU will see in the Apple Cup finale and you don’t want to go into the last game needing a win for a bowl. ‘Zona got to six wins early by beating up patsies but has actually looked better in the last month, even in defeat. I doubt the Cougs will be able to handle the Wildcats’ ground game, but there’s a chance the Air Raid could give Arizona fits too. Should be fun.

Oregon is unlikely to have any problems with Utah. The Utes did beat Stanford, but they’re a much better home team and have regressed since that performance. UO is coming off a loss, is at home and is of course vastly superior. Utah has neither the defensive depth to contain the Ducks nor the offensive firepower to go tit-for-tat in Autzen. QB Travis Wilson, finger injury be damned, probably shouldn’t be starting any more. Barring a complete meltdown, Oregon should win handily.

How about Cal at Colorado? The winless Pac-12 teams square off in the Ultimate Shame Bowl, and I have to say, I’m leaning Colorado’s way. The Buffaloes have at least shown some fight in conference play this season. Cal came close two weeks ago against Arizona, but got blown out this week by USC. Then again, CU lost big to Washington this week as well, so perhaps I should give the Bears more credit… In any case, this will probably be a pretty watchable game, given that these are by far the two worst teams in the conference.

Stanford and USC has potential to be exciting. On depth alone, the Cardinal are stronger than the Trojans, but SC has shown it’s not a good idea to count them out of anything. In fact, there are a lot of factors that favor USC this week. The game is in L.A., the Trojans will be out for revenge after Stanford started their slide to 7-6 last year and SC has been playing great lately. What’s more, USC is one of the teams that can actually match Stanford in the power department. Stanford should be favored, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this matchup go down to the wire or in the Trojans’ favor.

Finally, there’s Oregon State and Arizona State in the desert. Tempe has been a nest of nightmares for OSU teams in the past and the Sun Devils will be favorites in this game for a reason. It’s hard to imagine the Beavers defense, with its struggles against spread offenses, being able to hold down ASU. However, I’m not sure how good the Sun Devils’ D is. One thing’s for sure: OSU can score. I expect Mannion and Cooks, Inc. to have a productive day. ASU is much too good to go against at home, but we’ve seen in the past they’re also liable to lapses of focus.

Heisman Watch

With Oregon’s loss Jameis Winston moves up to the favorite spot. Marcus Mariota is second, followed by no one deserving. I have no idea what the Johnny Manziel hype is about. The dude threw three picks against Mississippi State. Five TD’s, three INT’s versus a bad team isn’t a good game. It would be one thing if Manziel was re-creating his 2012 effort on the ground, but he’s not even close to those numbers. Winston is the front-runner because he’s had the biggest impact on college football this season; because of him, FSU is destined for a spot in the BCS Championship.

Random Thoughts and Observations

This is the final week for the one-time Stanzi offenders. Johnny Manziel made his move, jumping into the multiple category just in time for the cutoff. Will another player match him this week? Can any of the leaders grab the elusive third award, a boost that might put them over the top? Watch and find out.

Casey Pachall, TCU

Opponent: Iowa State

Performance: Two INT (one on goal line), led game-winning TD drive

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

Opponent: Mississippi State

Performance: Three INT (two on goal line), ran out clock to preserve win

Blake Bortles, UCF

Opponent: Houston

Performance: One INT (on goal line), one FUM, led game-clinching TD drive

2013 Stanzi Awards

Devin Gardner, Michigan: 2

Keith Wenning, Ball State: 2

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M: 2

Anthony Boone, Duke: 1

Stephen Morris, Miami (FL): 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Connor Wood, Colorado: 1

Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech: 1

Braxton Miller, Ohio State: 1

Corey Robinson, Troy: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Jake Heaps, Kansas: 1

Gary Nova, Rutgers: 1

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1

Casey Pachall, TCU: 1

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 1

Devin Powell, Tulane: 1

Connor Halliday, WSU: 1

Tommy Rees, Notre Dame: 1

Blake Bortles, UCF: 1

A.J. Doyle, Massachusetts: 1

Justin Worley, Tennessee: 1

Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion: 1

Terrel Hunt, Syracuse: 1

The time has come for season-ending hypotheticals to start getting thrown around. For example, what if Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor all go undefeated? Alabama and FSU should, and will, play in the BCS Championship. The SEC remains the strongest conference, which automatically makes ‘Bama a lock. FSU has a slightly weaker case, but both the Big Ten and Big 12 have declined this season in relation to the ACC. That alone would get the Seminoles into the title game, though they’ve also looked much more impressive than either of the other two contenders.

In the unlikely event that one of the top two falls, Ohio State should be the next team up. No disrespect to Baylor (who will eventually leap Stanford by winning out), but pedigree does count for something. Despite the perception that the Buckeyes haven’t faced many quality opponents, voters still value things like recruiting (where OSU has a huge edge) and history. That’s not exactly fair or relevant to this particular season, but that’s how college football has always functioned. However, both Ohio State and Baylor have yet to face their hardest tests (Michigan State and Oklahoma State, respectively), so this conversation may not end up mattering very much.

With a stunning home blowout loss to Vanderbilt, Florida is poised for its first losing season in more than 30 years. I expected the Gators would struggle offensively and decline defensively after 2012’s impressive showing, but this has been ugly. Injuries are a big problem – no one can thrive with as many as Florida has seen this season – but remember, this is a top-10 program. How is it that UF doesn’t have the athletes to compete? A better explanation is probably luck: the Gators were exceptionally lucky last year, getting a myriad of breaks to win 11 games. This season the pendulum has swung back the opposite direction and the team is getting blasted. Needing two wins from the troika of South Carolina, Georgia Southern (dear God) and Florida State doesn’t bode well. However, it does make Florida a prime “rebound” candidate for 2014.

Along with Florida, there is a handful of other schools in danger of missing out on the postseason after promising starts. Chief among them are Maryland and Northwestern, who have gone a combined 1-9 in conference play after both opening 4-0 against a crew of patsies. The Terrapins’ decline is more forgivable, as the Terps lost their starting QB for a chunk of time. Northwestern’s fall was one of the more obvious things coming this season. In a year of poll craziness, I’m glad I can say I pegged the Wildcats as frauds from the start. Washington State and Utah, who both started 4-2, are also in danger of missing out on bowls with 4-5 records. The Pac-12 schools still have a shot and play in Pullman in two weeks, a game that might decide which one nabs a postseason bid. Wazzu’s schedule is tougher overall, with games against Washington and Arizona, but while the Utes get a potential freebie in Colorado they also face Oregon. Hopefully, one of the teams will manage to get to six wins.

On the flip side of the bowl equation is the teams coming on strong to end the year. Who would have thought Kansas State, who started 2-4, would be in contention for a bowl? The Wildcats have won three straight and only need to beat TCU or Kansas to get to eligibility. Boston College was 3-4 and now only needs one win in its final three to make a bowl. Vanderbilt started 1-2 and has never been more than one game over .500, but after upsets of Georgia and Florida the Commodores need just one win against the likes of Kentucky, Tennessee and Wake Forest to get to six. They might win all three! Side note: this is also how Vandy won nine games last year. Don’t get blinded by the hype, this still isn’t a great team. Still, finishing the season on a hot streak is laudable. It’s better than what the teams in the previous paragraph are doing.

Next week: most of the big questions have been answered. There’s still a lot of good football being played, be it midweek MACtion (I don’t know who coined that word, but I’ve been using it for a long time) with Ball State at NIU, a Thursday rematch of the 2009 ACC title game in Georgia Tech – Clemson, or a key Friday contest in the Pac-12 (Washington at UCLA). That’s before we even get to the weekend, when fun matchups abound: Washington State – Arizona; Georgia – Auburn; Miami (FL) – Duke; Michigan State – Nebraska; Oklahoma State – Texas; Houston – Louisville; Texas Tech – Baylor; Stanford – USC, Oregon State – Arizona State. A lot of good games to be seen.