The long and winding road

National Overview

Last week didn’t look particularly good on paper, but as the saying goes, that’s why they play the games. Starting with Thursday’s showdown in the Little Apple, Week 4 provided thrills and near-shockers across the board. Auburn survived that trip to Manhattan with a “quality” win over Kansas State but provided the doubters with a lot of ammunition. The Tigers were fortunate to benefit from a deluge of K-State miscues and probably should have lost. The same can easily be said for defending champion Florida State, which looked downright average against a Clemson team that might not be very good at all. Oregon also escaped an inferior opponent when Washington State was unable to get one last equalizing score, while Oklahoma, so dominant in the first few weeks, was somewhat exposed by West Virginia.

What does this all mean? As usual, it probably indicates no one is quite as good as people think. This could end up being one of those years when no truly dominant team emerges, like 2007 or 2010. People seem to forget that seasons in which a juggernaut (or two) thrashes everyone in sight (such as 2005 USC/Texas or 2014 FSU) are more the exception than the norm. Every contender (with the possible exception of Texas A&M) has shown legitimate problem areas thus far, from Oregon and Alabama’s pass defense to Oklahoma’s pass offense to Florida State’s… whatever that was without quarterback Jameis Winston.

Back to that Auburn – Kansas State contest. Credit AU for getting it done in the fourth quarter, but if things went even remotely the Wildcats’ way the outcome would have been very different. KSU gifted the Tigers a pair of extremely lucky early turnovers and missed three field goals that should have put Auburn into a deep hole. Had the Tigers been forced to rely on QB Nick Marshall’s passing to win, they wouldn’t have.

As frustrated as the Wildcats might be, though, there’s no one in the country more angry than Clemson this week. The Tigers had every opportunity to put FSU away and probably should have. From a comically inept (and ill-timed) bad snap to missed field goals to blown coverages, this edition of “pulling a Clemson” (the East Coast version of “Couging it”) was the Clemsoniest Clemsoning yet. As a result, the Seminoles now have the easiest path of any contender to the playoffs. But would they deserve a spot there if they do pull off an undefeated season? More on that in a moment.

The final week of September yields the most impressive crop of games so far. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State meet Thursday in both teams’ Big 12 opener, while UCLA heads to Tempe that same night to face defending division champion Arizona State. Minnesota and Michigan rekindle their ancient rivalry Saturday, as do old Southwest Conference foes Arkansas and Texas A&M. Florida State is at North Carolina State in an intriguing, if not particularly promising, matchup. More interesting is Stanford’s visit to Washington in a series that has been razor-close lately. In yet another chance for Big Ten misery, Cincinnati’s trip to in-state rival Ohio State has major implications. Finally, the nightcap of Oregon State – USC should be competitive and watchable. The wait is over. It’s the first slate of quality games this season.

Top 25

I’ve tentatively decided on creating a power poll instead of a traditional ranking for the playoff candidates from this point forward. The poll will consist of the four teams most deserving to be included based on their resumes to that point, along with a short list of the teams on the “bubble,” much like with the NCAA Tournament. The first full power poll will come out next week, but for the moment the top four teams are, in some order: Texas A&M, Alabama, Oregon and Oklahoma. Those schools have looked the best the most consistently in 2014.

Note: Top-ranked Florida State is not currently included because the Seminoles have not been impressive in two of three games this season. To make things more interesting, the schedule from here on out is extremely weak. Without a series of dominant wins the rest of the way FSU could find itself left out of the playoff.

Additionally, I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised Mississippi State posted its best win in more than a decade just after I gave the Bulldogs my ultimate vote of no confidence last week. Oh, well. MSU’s road blowout of LSU – though the Tigers may not be that good – is one of the best wins any team has posted this year and moves State to the playoff bubble.

Pac-12 Report

Oregon’s struggles at Washington State were, as I predicted last week, not entirely shocking. WSU is the best passing team in the nation, Oregon’s corners are mostly inexperienced and the Ducks have tended to give up yards in chunks against one-dimensional offenses the past few years. The good news is UO won’t face another foe as pass-happy (and as competent doing it) as Wazzu all year. Unfortunately, there are some other issues that might come back to haunt this team.

The pass defense is a fairly fixable problem, or at least, it would be in any other conference. But the Pac-12 is a cruel and unforgiving mistress to weak secondaries. Oregon still has the ability to tighten things up, but it’s hard to imagine this suddenly becoming an elite unit. Then there’s the offensive line, which has gone from perhaps the team’s greatest strength to barely hanging on after a rash of injuries. QB Marcus Mariota was sacked seven times in Pullman and the Ducks failed to rush for 200 yards, a rarity for this offense. If reinforcements don’t arrive soon, UO will succumb to the brutal conference schedule.

It was delightful to see Cal and Arizona go down to the wire, but bittersweet to see the Bears blow a 22-point halftime lead in Tucson and fail to go to 3-0. Simply put, Cal deserved the win. Arizona is the better team, no doubt; despite shooting itself it the foot numerous times, the Wildcats moved the ball at will. The Bears should still have stolen the W, but ‘Zona survived and now enters the meat of the Pac-12 schedule in great shape to play a major role in the South race.

As for Cal, the Bears suffered their first loss but surely must feel better about their chances in league play than in 2013. The defense is going to get lit up a whole bunch, but the offense has proved to be worthy of a major-conference squad. At the very least, Cal seems to have stabilized as a program under Sonny Dykes. With the Bears still pulling in good recruiting classes this team ought to be competitive in the near future, much sooner than expected

Washington, on the other hand, notched a win over Georgia State that raised even more red flags. The Huskies trailed 14-0 at halftime and led by seven entering the fourth quarter against a program that has been playing football less than five years. Chris Petersen has started his tenure as UW head coach 4-0, but it’s about the shakiest undefeated start imaginable. Hopefully, his guys were looking ahead to the big showdown this week. If not, it could be a long year for the Huskies.

Oregon State’s win over San Diego State wasn’t really noteworthy in any way – the Beavers were the better team and looked like it – so let’s move on to Utah. The Utes extended the Big Ten’s streak of awfulness with an overpowering performance in Ann Arbor to move to 3-0. It’s early, but this might be the most talented team head coach Kyle Whittingham has fielded, at least since joining the league. The Utes were 4-4 and poised to win the division in their first Pac-12 season (2011) before blowing a HOME finale to Colorado, of all teams. I think it’s highly likely this Utah team is better than the 2011 version.

On that note, I think it’s likely Utah knocks off WSU this week. The Utes are equipped to win a shootout or a slugfest and have the requisite home-field advantage to get it done. The Cougs are certainly capable of winning this game – that 1-3 record is highly misleading – but it’s hard to trust this erratic, turnover-prone squad. If Wazzu is going to make it to a bowl the season has to turn around in Salt Lake City. I’m not confident it will happen.

Colorado at Cal looked like a matchup of even teams before the year started, but that was before the Bears started looking competent. The Buffaloes, despite their 2-2 start, are still not ready to take the next step. At home, Cal is the clear favorite in this game. What might have been for this Bears team? If not for that stupid Hail Mary at Arizona, 4-0 and a bowl bid would be a real possibility.

OSU – USC was a game I went back and forth on in my preseason predictions before settling on the Trojans taking it at home. That struggle looked ludicrous after SC’s big win over Stanford, but it swung right back to reasonable after that appalling effort at Boston College. Here’s the thing, though: the Trojans might be overrated, Steve Sarkisian might be a complete hack of a head coach and the program might be hobbled by scholarship reductions… and I still don’t like the Beavers’ chances in L.A. OSU has been notoriously bad in these situations historically and there’s not really any reason to think this team is good enough to turn that streak around. I’m not sure the 2014 Beavs are as good as last year’s squad that went 7-6.

There’s a huge South showdown Thursday between UCLA and ASU. Or is there? The Bruins are being coy about the status of QB Brett Hundley, but I’d bet he plays. ASU’s Taylor Kelly, arguably the superior QB, is definitely out. The game is at night in Tempe, which obviously favors the Sun Devils. This game was supposed to determine which side would play in the Pac-12 Championship, but now the picture is muddled. Kelly is hurt. UCLA has looked like the most overrated team in the country thus far. Is either of these teams going to win the South? Were the Devils at full strength, I’d take them in a heartbeat. Now I have to lean toward the Bruins by default, though it wouldn’t shock me to see ASU still pull this game out.

So… there’s this interesting thing happening. A pair of undefeated, top-15 Pac-12 squads will play on Thursday, but there’s another game happening Saturday in Seattle that might feature two teams better than either of them. Stanford, without a doubt, is at least the equal of UCLA and ASU. Washington has been curiously sloppy this month, but the Huskies have still started 4-0. If UW and Stanford finished ahead of their South Division brethren at the end of the year, would it really surprise anyone? I don’t think so. This series has gotten tight the past couple of seasons and this contest appears to be of the same mold. The Cardinal cannot afford another conference loss. Washington surely doesn’t want to start with one either. Buckle up.

Random Thoughts and Observations

A lot has been made of how the Big Ten “rebounded” last week, going 12-1. Let’s see…Iowa knocked off Pittsburgh on the road… Nebraska beat Miami (FL) at home… Indiana upset Missouri in Columbia… and that’s it. Am I supposed to be impressed by Rutgers’ win at Navy or Maryland’s road victory over Syracuse? Indiana’s comeback against Mizzou was nice, but let’s face it, the Tigers were probably vastly over-ranked following their incredible 2013 run. Pitt is decent, but that’s hardly a ringing endorsement, while Miami is a .500 football team. The Big Ten didn’t “rebound” last week. It just didn’t play anyone of note and looked good because of it. This is still the worst Power 5 conference, which, considering the state of the ACC, is really saying something.

After nearly upsetting South Carolina and knocking off Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, what would East Carolina do next? How about obliterating in-state rival North Carolina by a score of 70-41? The Pirates rolled up 789 yards on 97 plays, officially stamping themselves as the team to beat in the AAC. The game wasn’t even as close as it looks. UNC built an early lead thanks to two touchdowns on trick plays. There’s no way to spin this positively for the ACC, no matter how good ECU is. I thought the Pirates might contend for the league title in their first season out of the Conference USA, but this is unexpected.

Stanzi Watch

It was a banner week for the Stanzis as an astounding seven new candidates entered the fray. Florida State is now facing the same conundrum TCU did in 2013: two quarterbacks earning Stanzis in the same season. Which one to start?! With conference action just getting started, things can only get better from here. Here are this week’s winners and the overall standings.

Sean Maguire, Florida State

Opponent: Clemson

Performance: Two INT, won in overtime

Sefo Liufau, Colorado

Opponent: Hawai’i

Performance: Two INT, won by nine

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State

Opponent: Utah State

Performance: One INT, two FUM, won in OT

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati

Opponent: Miami (OH)

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss

Opponent: Appalachian State

Performance: Two INT, won by one

Anu Solomon, Arizona

Opponent: California

Performance: Two INT, won on Hail Mary

Logan Woodside, Toledo

Opponent: Ball State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle: Georgia State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 1

Conference play! It’s here! No longer will we have to slog through 66-0 pastings like the one Wisconsin laid on Bowling Green last week. Well, unless you’re watching the SEC. That league loves to sprinkle in patsies throughout the season, not unlike a fancy dinner getting constantly interrupted for Hostess Cupcakes breaks. Fortunately, from this point forward that dinner should be so filling no one will need to even consider reaching for one.

Pacific Blues

National Overview

For a slate with only one ranked-versus-ranked matchup Week 3 turned out to be decently entertaining. No, there was no earth-shattering upset that eliminated a team from playoff contention, but overall it’s hard to be dissatisfied with a weekend that produces a couple of ranked teams going down and a conference (Pac-12) on the edge of its seat for a couple hours late Saturday night.

How about that Georgia – South Carolina game? For the third time in four years the Bulldogs and Gamecocks went nuts in their early-season meeting, flying around the field in delightfully reckless fashion. Carolina prevailed for the fourth time in five years, perhaps signaling that the East is still Cocky’s to lose. Despite UGA’s two recent trips to the SEC title game the Bulldogs have struggled with SC. In both those division-title seasons Georgia got to Atlanta by virtue of the Gamecocks’ own inability to avoid missteps. It seems the opening loss to Texas A&M won’t be the death knell some thought it was for Carolina.

Speaking of ominous signs, Week 3 had more than a few for the Pac-12. Injuries to the two best quarterbacks in the South (ASU’s Taylor Kelly and UCLA’s Brett Hundley)? Check. The conference’s two most prominent programs (historically) trailing on the road in the second half against inferior opponents? Check. How about one of those teams actually losing, just one week after knocking off a ranked Stanford team on the road? Ugh. The league avoided complete disaster when Jerry “TwoWeasel*” Neuheisel led UCLA back to a 20-17 win over Texas in Arlington, but USC’s defensive flop at Boston College was on display for the whole nation to see. More on the Trojans in the Pac-12 section, but let’s agree to cool it with the “Pac-12 is as good as the SEC!” talk for now.

*Jerry’s father Rick, the former UCLA, Washington and Colorado head coach, was derisively referred to by rival fans as Rick “Neu-Weasel” for various rules violations and transgressions. I thought it only fitting to bestow the moniker “TwoWeasel” upon his son.

However, it was once again the Big Ten that brought up the rear. The beleaguered home of the Leaders and Legends (not really, but the conference will never live that down) saw Illinois and Minnesota blown out by big-league competition, Indiana drop a close one to Bowling Green, and Iowa and newcomer Maryland fall to rivals Iowa State and West Virginia, respectively. The B1G is now 1-10 versus schools from the other Power 5 conferences in 2014, with Rutgers’ shootout victory over Washington State on opening night the only mark in the win column. It seems there’s no end to this misery and the reality that this once-respected league will be excluded from the first playoff in college football history is looming larger every week.

What’s on tap for Week 4? So glad you asked. To start with, there’s a very interesting Thursday night matchup between Auburn and Kansas State in Manhattan that’s been pointed to for weeks now as a potential trap for the Tigers. I’m not entirely sure I buy it – not because Auburn is a elite title contender, because I have a lot of skepticism about that – but because I’m not sure K-State is that good. The Wildcats were lucky to escape Week 2 with a win over Iowa State, and regardless of what Iowa may have had to say about it last Saturday I don’t think the Cyclones are anything more than average. We’ll see on Thursday.

Moving forward to the weekend, we get the always-entertaining Tech-vs.-Tech battle when Georgia Tech meets Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Bowling Green taking on a shaky Wisconsin team and North Carolina at East Carolina in another round of what has become a great intra-state series. Florida at Alabama is getting some hype, but I tend to doubt the bona fides of teams that just needed three overtimes to beat Kentucky. I feel similar about Mississippi State at LSU. Seemingly every year the Bulldogs start hot by beating some garbage teams, then look average in SEC play. MSU hasn’t finished better than .500 in-conference for more than a decade. Why exactly should I believe this is the year the streak ends?

Utah at Michigan is an intriguing non-league contest. The Utes did upset UM in the Big House a few years back and it’s safe to say this iteration of the Wolverines has been less than impressive thus far. Still… it’s hard to trust Utah, which has struggled mightily since making the leap to a major conference in 2011. Likewise for Virginia – BYU, which is being hailed as a good matchup because of the Cavaliers’ upset of Louisville last week. The Cavs did knock off the Cougars last season, but that was a Week 1 slugfest BYU should have won. This year, in Provo, they will.

Miami (FL) also travels to Nebraska in another opportunity for the Big Ten to fall on its face, while undefeated Cal and Arizona teams (say what?) meet in Tucson for an early Pac-12 battle. However, the big game (and in many respects, the only game) this week is Clemson at Florida State. The Tigers were eviscerated last year at home and I don’t really think they’ve improved much, if at all. However, FSU looked vulnerable in their opener, so we’ll see if Clemson can keep this thing closer than the 2013 meltdown. If the Seminoles struggle to put this game away it might be a warning sign.

Top 25

It’s still too soon. The more I think about it, the more I feel that perhaps the traditional top 25 should be replaced this season to better reflect this new era of college football. After all, at the end of the year it won’t matter who’s ranked where. The opinion of the playoff committee is what counts. I’ll toy around with some ideas in the next couple of weeks before deciding. For the record, Oregon and Texas A&M should be first and second. Those teams have quality wins no other squad can match. Based on the eye test, I’d say Oklahoma, Alabama and FSU ought to round out the top five. Any combination of those schools would make for a fantastic final four.

Pac-12 Report

Hmmm. Hmmm indeed. After all the talk this preseason about how the Pac-12 was ready to challenge the SEC for conference supremacy, it nearly all came crashing down in a matter of hours in Week 3. Sure, Oregon and Stanford handled their business against underpowered mid-majors and the Washington schools looked good, but from mid-afternoon on almost nothing went right for the Conference of Champions. UCLA continued to look bad before and after Hundley’s injury, only to be saved by a familial blast from its past. Arizona State got a comfortable win over Colorado but lost Kelly for at least a few weeks, including the big South showdown with UCLA next Thursday. Arizona barely held on against Nevada, a team that had just beat Wazzu the week prior. And then there was USC.

I was skeptical after Week 1, when the Trojans got way too much credit for running more than 100 plays against Fresno State. That feeling has been justified, as the Bulldogs are now 0-3 with three blowouts on their resume. But SC survived Stanford on the road despite being outplayed, so I thought perhaps my initial preseason prediction of a division title would turn out to be correct. That changed drastically this weekend, as Boston College trampled the Trojans’ D with 452 yards on the ground.

452! I can’t remember ever seeing a USC team get that thoroughly whipped at the line of scrimmage. Even in the 2009 Halloween night massacre that signaled the end of the Trojans’ dynasty, Oregon only rushed for 391 yards. However, the Ducks on that night also passed for 222 yards. BC completed five of 13 passes for 54 yards and an interception. The fact that SC knew exactly what was coming on every play and still couldn’t stop it is unforgivable. There’s been some talk of a “Stanford hangover,” a phenomenon that seems to affect teams the week after playing physical squads like the Cardinal, but that’s no excuse for losing to an clearly inferior side in BC. In just seven days USC went from chic playoff pick to potential Pac-12 also-ran.

Fortunately for the Trojans, they still have QB Cody Kessler, whose superb performance Saturday was overshadowed by the loss. UCLA and ASU can’t say the same. That alone might keep SC on top of the suddenly shaky South. None of those three teams plays this week, which is probably a good thing (Stanford is also off). There are still only two conference games, which we’ll get to in a minute.

I expect Washington to finally play a complete, error-free game against Georgia State. No real danger there. Hawai’i at Colorado is an decent matchup of two relatively evenly-matched squads. The Buffaloes should be able to come out with a win to climb to .500 (four games into the season! Way to go, Ralphie!), but you never know with CU. Utah – Michigan has a chance to be a death blow to the Big Ten, though I’m nervous about the Utes leaving the friendly confines of Rice-Eccles. This team is 2-9 on the road the past two seasons. Michigan isn’t particularly good, but I have nothing to assure me Utah is either. The last non-conference game is San Diego State at Oregon State, a team OSU very nearly lost to in 2013. There’s some potential for an upset, but I expect the Beavers to pull out the win.

That leaves a pair of evening matchups I find very interesting. Cal’s visit to Arizona should be no big deal for the Wildcats, right? After all, the Golden Bears are still terrible. Well, I’m not so sure. First, Cal has already won more games in two weeks than it did all last season. Second, the Bears got a week off to prepare for this conference opener. Third… how good is ‘Zona, really? After annihilating UNLV in their opener the ‘Cats have been average at best. Close wins over UTSA and Nevada don’t exactly scream “playoff contender.” The Roadrunners, in particular, seemed to figure out frosh QB Anu Solomon, who – like many young passers – tends to struggle when forced to make second and third reads. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this turn into a close affair.

Oregon’s trip to WSU has some great trap potential as well. The Ducks, for all their talent and versatility, often look at a loss when faced with an offense that wants to only do one thing. What’s more, UO’s coverage has been spotty so far this season and might be missing starting CB Troy Hill in Pullman. The Cougars want to throw the ball upwards of 60 times, and they’ll need to against an offense they should have little hope of slowing down. But there’s always potential for a Mike Leach offense to catch fire. Throw in a turnover or two and a busted play and this could become a shootout in a hurry.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The Heisman Watch is also on hold for another few weeks, but let’s take the time to appreciate the true ridiculousness of Florida State QB Jameis Winston’s stupidity. Not only has he repeatedly made headlines for off-field behavior since the allegations of rape made against him went public, he’s apparently tone-deaf enough to think shouting a particular phrase (click the link if you dare) in the middle of the student union would go unnoticed. Nevermind that this meme isn’t particularly funny outside of the college-humor sphere; it’s astounding that he would think this is a good idea after the charges leveled against him last year.

The Heisman’s purity among individual athletic awards is somewhat of a sham, but there’s virtually no denying it is still, in the Heisman Trust’s own words, “The most coveted individual award in sports.” The trophy has also traditionally been associated with good character and strong academic standing. While some of those platitudes are really just that, the fact remains that Winston has made it extraordinarily difficult for voters to consider him for the honor again.

Stanzi Watch

It was a quiet week in the Stanzis but for one wild game: Louisiville at Virginia saw not only the return of the Double Stanzi (when the winning QB on either side would receive one), but a truly remarkable near-feat in the Triple Stanzi! UVA played two QB’s – Grayson Lambert and Matt Johns – and the duo came up one Johns turnover short of both earning Stanzis. Lambert threw one pick and fumbled, while Johns threw a pick of his own. For the record, Louisville’s Will Gardner tossed two interceptions and fumbled as well. So close! I’d never considered it before, but I suppose there’s really no limit as to how many Stanzis could be awarded in a single game. It would take absurdly poor quarterbacking, coaching staffs eager to pull guys after a couple turnovers and a healthy dose of unintentional comedy from the Football Gods. Let’s get Florida and Texas together and do this. Here are this week’s winners, with previous weekly winners and standings below.

Taysom Hill, BYU

Opponent: Houston

Performance: Two INT, one FUM (recovered by teammate), held on for 33-25 win

Grayson Lambert, Virginia

Opponent: Louisville

Performance: One INT, one FUM, escaped with 23-21 win

Tanner Lee, Tulane

Opponent: Southeastern Louisiana

Performance: Two INT, won by two scores

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle: Georgia State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 1

We’re so close to good football. Keep on believing for one more week. UCLA – ASU is next Thursday night. It can’t possibly be worse than Florida – Alabama will be this weekend. Onwards and preferably upwards we go.

...and the Big Ten goes down

National Overview

I don’t think I’ve ever written a more ominous headline than last week’s “The Big Ten’s last hurrah”. I never thought things could get worse than they did in Week 2 of 2012, when highly-ranked Wisconsin and Nebraska teams crashed and burned at Oregon State and UCLA, respectively. Oof. I – and so many others – turned out to be so, so wrong. Michigan State acquitted itself well at Oregon (more on that later), but from there things went downhill fast.

Purdue was blown out at home by Central Michigan. Northwestern fell at home to Northern Illinois. The Spartans went down in Eugene. Michigan was embarrassed 31-0 in its final game with rival Notre Dame. In the nightcap, Ohio State was knocked off (again, at home) by Virginia Tech. Even the wins were awful. Wisconsin needed a big second half to run away from Western Illinois. Nebraska would have gone to overtime with McNeese State if not for a miracle last-minute score from running back Ameer Abdullah. Illinois pulled away from Western Kentucky only after a 21-point fourth quarter. Iowa escaped Ball State thanks to two touchdowns in the last three minutes, while Maryland had to rally past South Florida.

I said following that dark weekend in 2012 that was clearly the worst Big Ten in history. It’s time for an update: THIS is the worst Big Ten in history. With no legitimate championship contenders and no BCS bowl bid to bail it out, the conference is almost certainly on the outside looking in at the first College Football Playoff. Sure, there are scenarios in which a one-loss team (probably Michigan State, with the goodwill the Spartans have built up) could backdoor its way into the playoff if enough chaos happens elsewhere. But right now, it seems it would take some epic, 2007-esque madness for that to occur. This is a new low for the Big Ten.

In other, more unfortunate news, the NCAA capitulated to Penn State’s pressure and ended the Nittany Lions’ bowl ban after just two seasons. The program will also have its scholarship restrictions removed after the current season, while the NCAA ruled – incredibly – that the state of Pennsylvania can decide how to use the $60 million fine PSU paid as a result of the Sandusky scandal. This is one of the more appalling, yet sadly unsurprising, moves the NCAA has made in the past decade.

When the initial four-year ban and scholarship reductions were announced, I – like many people half-expecting the death penalty – said, “Pretty harsh. Good enough, as long as they don’t get off early for good behavior.” That’s exactly what happened. Penn State, crony George Mitchell and the NCAA decided two years of acting nice (emphasis on “acting”) was enough to make up for two decades of criminal negligence, arrogance and putting football above everything. The entire purpose of the penalties was to end the culture of “football first” in Happy Valley. Here’s the reaction from students upon hearing the news this week. I’d love to hear a non-PSU-homer explain what lessons were learned, exactly.

Looking forward: we kick things off Thursday with a rematch of last season’s epic Houston – BYU tilt, then begin the weekend with a couple of intriguing contests in the vein of UCF – Missouri and ECU – Virginia Tech. The American schools aren’t getting enough credit for how close they could make things in those games. Later, things get more serious: a critical early SEC matchup with Georgia at South Carolina and a pair of regional rivalry games in West Virginia – Maryland and Iowa State – Iowa. The Big Ten gets a shot at regaining some small amount of respectability when Minnesota and Illinois travel to TCU and Washington. The top contenders are all on cruise control.

Top 25

I’d still pick Florida State head-to-head, but based on resume alone Oregon is the nation’s top team. A group of five or six other schools trail those two, then there’s a huge drop-off to the next level. Other thoughts: Ohio State should not be ranked, not because the Buckeyes aren’t good, but because no one has any idea what to expect from them at this point… likewise for UCLA. One flop against a bad team is forgivable, two is not… South Carolina should also be nowhere near the polls after a sluggish win over ECU… USC should get credit for beating Stanford, but the chorus of praise suggesting the Trojans are playoff contenders is wildly premature. We don’t know how good the Cardinal are yet… the winner of Nevada – Arizona should enter the polls this week.

Pac-12 Report

Let’s get the big one out of the way. What in the world is wrong with Washington State? A week after looking typically sieve-like in a shootout loss to Rutgers, the Cougars were knocked out in a slugfest against Nevada. If bowl prospects were dim after Week 1, they’re officially on life support now. WSU must six of its final ten games – meaning at least five conference games, plus this week’s Portland State visit – to qualify for the postseason. I had this team pegged for five wins before the year, but I included both the first two games as wins. Things are looking ugly on the Palouse.

Oregon made the biggest splash of the season thus far by any team, rebounding from an ugly quarter-long stretch of play to run past and through Michigan State. It was a victory for spread teams everywhere, but the Ducks will certainly benefit the most from the impressive showing. With the “physicality” monkey off the team’s back, UO can now focus on securing the Pac-12 title, which it will overwhelmingly be favored to claim after Stanford’s loss to USC. There remain questions in my mind about the defense (why is the coverage so atrocious at times?), but Oregon is the front-runner once again.

USC came out of Stanford Stadium with a win despite seeing its highly (as it proved, overly so) regarded offense grind to a halt after the first drive. The Trojans ran just more than half as many plays against the Cardinal as they did versus Fresno (who it turns out, is terrible), were outgained by more than 100 yards and allowed all nine of Stanford’s drives to enter their own 35-yard line. How on earth did SC pull this one out? By capitalizing on two costly Kevin Hogan fumbles (the second a truly awful one by the quarterback that ended the game) and Stanford’s own supreme conservativeness, which saw the Cardinal settle for three field goal attempts (two missed) and two punts despite that fantastic field position. Eeesh. No doubt Stanford will still play a role in the Pac-12 race. The Cardinal are far too annoying to simply go away after one loss. But this time they’ll be playing catch-up from the start.

Washington and UCLA remain the true enigmas, both 2-0 despite vastly underwhelming performances. Strangely, both squads were inept offensively in Week 1, then fell apart defensively in Week 2. Those efforts won’t cut it in conference play. Fortunately, there’s still one tune-up left for the Bruins and two for the Huskies. UCLA must be more consistent on the road at Texas (in Arlington) this week, even against the seemingly hapless Longhorns. UW meets Illinois before playing Georgia State. Neither opponent should pose much of a threat, but the Huskies haven’t looked sharp very often this season either. The league needs these teams to get it together.

Oregon State, Utah and Cal are all off this week after 2-0 starts. This is probably a great time for these teams to take such a breather after all three posted disappointing finishes in 2013. The Golden Bears, coming off a brutal 1-11 season, desperately needed to start 2014 with some momentum. Going 2-0 is huge and the bye allows Cal to better prepare for a rough conference slate. Utah is in much the same boat, needing a shot in the arm after a disappointing campaign a year ago. Picking up two wins before heading to the Big House helps a lot. OSU entered the season in better shape than the Utes and Bears but still had a lot of question marks regarding its ability to compete with top competition. Avoiding an early face-plant (like in 2011 and 2013) was critical and the Beavers did that.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The only particularly noteworthy event in Week 2 was USC Athletic Director Pat Haden’s bizarre decision to come down to the field from his pressbox at Stanford Stadium (apparently, at the urging of head coach Steve Sarkisian) to berate the officials following a string of calls that went against the Trojans. To my eyes all the penalties assessed looked legitimate, but that’s hardly the point.

The fact that an AD directly interjected himself into a game in progress is unprecedented and absolutely warranted the $25,000 fine the Pac-12 handed down this week. Haden is a member of the College Football Playoff selection committee and his behavior was beyond inappropriate. Some people have called for him to resign his post, while others say that’s an overreaction. I’d lean toward Haden being forced out. Trying to use his position to influence the outcome of a game is an outrageous abuse of power. Haden’s status as a former Rhodes Scholar is one of the points being argued favor of allowing him to stay. How is that relevant in any way? An impressive educational background does not an intelligent person make. Nor does it preclude biases and homerism. Haden blew it and should be gone.

Stanzi Watch

I decided it was time for the Stanzis to have their own rightfully earned section. It was another great week for good-bad QB play, as five new challengers entered their names for college football’s most dubious honor.

Angel Santiago, Army

Opponent: Buffalo

Performance: Two FUM, allowed Buffalo to get back into game in one-score win

Wes Lunt, Illinois

Opponent: Western Kentucky

Performance: One FUM, one INT, held on for one-score win

C.J. Brown, Maryland

Opponent: South Florida

Performance: Two INT, one FUM (recovered by teammate), won by four

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech

Opponent: Ohio State

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, led clinching drive

Blake Decker, UNLV

Opponent: Northern Colorado

Performance: Three INT, held on for one-point win

Here are the previous winners and official standings:

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 1

That does it for Week 2. There’s just a couple more weeks of awful matchups before conference play really begins. Have faith, friends. Good football is coming.

The Big Ten's last hurrah

National Overview

It was an up-and-down return for college football in Week 1 of the 2014 season. On the one hand, unranked schools such as Oklahoma State and West Virginia proved to be much more than simple tune-ups for the likes of Florida State and Alabama, respectively. Those midday games ended up providing unexpected jolts of excitement. However, that excitement was necessary given that there were only three ranked-vs.-ranked matchups, two of which turned into runaway victories. It was good to have football back, but there have certainly been better opening weekends.

The headline from Saturday was the struggles of FSU and ‘Bama, both heavy favorites, in their neutral-site contests. Seeing the Seminoles have to work to put away the Cowboys, winners of ten games a year ago, wasn’t too shocking. OSU has become a very good team, if one expected to fall off a little this season. West Virginia is a different story. The Mountaineers have been a mess since joining the Big 12 in 2012 and won just four games in 2013. Alabama should have had no trouble putting WVU away. It’s hard to say what was more alarming – the play of new Crimson Tide quarterback Blake Sims, or the inability of the Tide defense to consistently stop the Mountaineers.

Rather than dwell on the negatives, though, let’s look at the most impressive performances. There was no team more impressive in Week 1 than Texas A&M, which went to South Carolina on opening day and completely annihilated the Gamecocks. New QB Kenny Hill was sensational, smashing the school records for passing yards and completions in a single game and nearly making Aggies fans forget Johnny Manziel in the first game without him. A&M was supposed to be an afterthought in the SEC West race. Now things look even more wide open. South Carolina, on the other hand, was supposed to be a prime contender in the East, which now looks like Georgia’s to lose.

Speaking of the Bulldogs, UGA pulled away from Clemson very nicely in the second half. Running back Todd Gurley announced himself as the way-too-early Heisman frontrunner, plowing over, around and through the Tigers’ D en route to four touchdowns. I’m somewhat skeptical of Clemson’s bona fides as a legitimate quality team (the offense lost quite a lot), but it was a feel-good win for a team that deserved one. QB Hutson Mason was a question mark going into the year, but he was more than good enough Saturday.

The most disappointing performance of Week 1 undoubtedly belonged to Wisconsin, which held a 24-7 third-quarter lead over LSU in Houston only to let the Tigers score the final 21 points. RB Melvin Gordon was apparently injured* and only carried the ball four times in the second half, while the switch to mobile QB Tanner McEvoy was an unmitigated disaster (more on this later). LSU had no business winning the game by simply running the ball over and over. The Big Ten desperately needs Michigan State to win at Oregon this week.

*In other injury news, Baylor QB Bryce Petty cracked two vertebrae in the Bears’ 45-0 shutout of SMU on Sunday. This is hugely significant for the Big 12 race and the playoff picture. Baylor could be in trouble if Petty misses any time. UPDATE: Nope, looks like Petty will be back next week. Which is about the dumbest, most irresponsible thing Baylor could do, but why not? It’s not as if Petty could get paralyzed or anything.

There are two huge games this weekend, both in Pac-12 country. First, USC gets its first shot at a “we’re back” announcement at Stanford. Yes, the Trojans did upset the Cardinal last season, but that’s what it was – an upset. SC was down in the standings all year after losing to Washington State in the 2013 conference opener and has a chance to rectify that this year with a big win. For Stanford, it’s a chance to re-confirm its status as a dominant Pac-12 power.

Looming even larger, though, is Michigan State’s visit to Oregon. The Spartans’ imposing defense will face its greatest challenge in head coach Mark Dantonio’s tenure on the road against the Ducks’ blazingly fast attack. It’s not an understatement to say this could be the most important game of the college football season. An Oregon win would effectively end the Big Ten’s playoff chances, as Wisconsin has already lost and Ohio State is playing without QB Braxton Miller. If MSU wins, UO can still make the playoff by running the table (and the Pac-12 has numerous other contenders). As big as this matchup is for the Ducks, it means so much more to the Spartans.

Top 25

I don’t believe in releasing a top 25 before the end of September, but here are a few thoughts about who looked good and who didn’t in Week 1: South Carolina and Clemson should both be unranked after losing by double-digits, regardless of the competition... Texas A&M looked like a top-10 team, although it may be that South Carolina simply isn’t that good... Alabama did not look like a top-five team... the winner of Oregon – Michigan State should be ranked first until another team makes a more compelling case... UCLA doesn't deserve to be in top 15.

Pac-12 Report

Let’s start with Thursday. Utah and Arizona State wiped out overmatched FCS teams. No sense in rehashing that. Washington State, facing Rutgers in Seattle, did not. Coming off their first bowl appearance in a decade, it was fair to question how the Cougars would respond to increased expectations. Unfortunately, the results weren’t good. WSU is still somewhat talent-deficient, but losing to the Scarlet Knights in a shootout to start the third year of the Mike Leach era was highly disappointing. It’s tough to look at the Cougs’ remaining schedule and pick out six wins.

Colorado was likewise disappointing in the Rocky Mountain Showdown against rival Colorado State. Yes, the Rams were unveiling Alabama transfer Dee Hart at RB and aren’t terrible overall, but the Buffaloes let a 17-7 third-quarter lead turn into a 31-17 defeat. That’s unacceptable. Arizona did manage to pick up the slack for the Buffs Friday night, blowing out UNLV thanks to an electric debut performance by QB Anu Solomon. ‘Zona looked like a sleeper in the South.

The weekend saw highs and lows for the Pac-12. Oregon and Stanford crushed lower-level opponents, while Cal got a very big revenge win at Northwestern and USC looked dominant against Fresno State. Oregon State eventually picked up a double-digit win versus Portland State, but it took a while for the Beavers to assert themselves (side note: is there any team in the country that struggles more against mobile QB’s than OSU? I say no. I mentioned this after last season's opening loss to FCS power Eastern Washington and it seems more true than ever today).

Washington didn’t get the Chris Petersen era off the greatest start, holding on for a 17-16 win at Hawai’i. The Huskies’ offense was terrible, particularly in the second half, when the Rainbow Warriors shut them out. However, it’s hard to know just how big a problem this is, especially with QB Cyler Miles suspended for the opener. Miles should make a significant difference, although UW had still better be ready against Eastern Washington this week.

It was UCLA that made the conference look the worst, though. On the road for an early kick-off at Virginia, the Bruins pulled out a 28-20 victory in which the defense scored three TD’s – all in a second-quarter flurry – while the offense accomplished nothing. QB Brett Hundley looked awful and the Cavaliers, winners of all of two games in 2013, looked to be at least the Bruins’ equal. There’s some talk that UVA has a good defense, which is somewhat true, but a cop-out. Oregon went into Charlottesville last season and hammered this squad 59-10. The fact that UCLA couldn’t do anything remotely similar is a huge red flag.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Wisconsin's curious decision to stay with McEvoy at QB during the second half against LSU, when the Tigers had clearly realized he couldn’t throw at all, was second-guessed the past few days. Now the bad news has come out: McEvoy didn’t win the job solely because he beat out incumbent Joel Stave. Stave has actually been dealing with some kind of mysterious shoulder issue and can’t go right now. This is a rough situation for the Badgers. Any defense worth anything is going to force McEvoy to prove himself through the air, something he didn’t look remotely capable of against the Tigers.

I think USC might be getting too much credit for running a ton of plays (105!) on a bad Fresno State defense. Even during their 11-win season last year the Bulldogs gave up more than 30 points a game, including the Vegas Bowl loss to this same USC team, when they allowed 45. The Trojans are talented, but I’m not sure they should be favored at Stanford. The Cardinal are still really good and have earned respect they don’t seem to be getting this week.

Louisville was impressive in its first game as an ACC member, downing Miami (FL) comfortably on Labor Day. I marked the Cardinals as an also-ran in the Atlantic, but through the first week of play UL appears to be a stronger pick to challenge Florida State than Clemson. Perhaps the step up in competition won’t be as severe as people thought.

After buying (somewhat) into the Ole Miss hype, I was stunned at the horrendous game the Rebels played with Boise State in Atlanta on Thursday. The 35-13 final score was in no way indicative of the flow of the contest, which saw seven interceptions and several other wounded ducks in one of the worst collective QB performances of the past decade. Ole Miss might have a lot of talent but right now the Rebs are not true SEC contenders.

Speaking of sloppy play, Ohio coaches had to be tearing their hair out during the team’s Week 1 win over Kent State. The Bobcats led 14-7 at the break in a tight MAC battle, then fumbled on four consecutive drives to start the second half. Amazingly, the Golden Flashes didn’t capitalize until the final turnover, tying the game at 14. Ohio then promptly marched down the field for the winning field goal. Go figure. Of course, if we’re talking sloppy play, then we’re talking about just one thing…

2014 Stanzi Awards

We’re back, baby! The nation’s QB’s will once again be fighting tooth and claw to secure the coveted Stanzi Award, given to the man behind center who makes the most boneheaded plays in victory throughout a single season. Can anyone dethrone Michigan’s Devin Gardner, who ran away with the award last year? Tune in and find out!

As a reminder, here are the guidelines players must follow to be eligible:

1) Only QB’s are eligible

2) The QB must have multiple turnovers

3) The game must be close (defined as within two possessions)

4) The QB’s team must win the game

Here are the first winners of weekly Stanzis in 2014:

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State

Opponent: Abilene Christian

Performance: Two INT, led team back from nine-point deficit (bonus points for picking up a Stanzi against an FCS school)

Dane Evans, Tulsa

Opponent: Tulane

Performance: Two INT, led team back to force overtime (won in double-OT)

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State

Opponent: UCF

Performance: Two INT, led game-winning field goal drive with 1:13 left

Davis Webb, Texas Tech

Opponent: Central Arkansas

Performance: Two INT, never put FCS team away (normally not a Stanzi, but qualifies considering the competition)

Jameis Winston, Florida State

Opponent: Oklahoma State

Performance: Two INT, nearly lost to unranked opponent

I think that does it for the first week. We’re off and running! Check back in next week pending the results of USC – Stanford and MSU – Oregon, when everything – or nothing – may have changed.