Bowl Week the Second

After a respectable 8-3 start to the bowl season, I went on a disastrous 1-5 streak that threatened to derail my record. Now I face my most daunting challenge yet: previewing 23 games in a single week. There simply isn’t enough time to write up every game before the weekend begins, so I’ll be doing it piecemeal this week. The matchups are updated through the end of December, and I’ll follow with as many as I can to stay ahead of schedule.

As always, games are rated on a 1-5 scale of watchability and listed in Pacific time. On to Week 2!

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6)

December 27, 10:00 a.m.

Good, an easy pick to start the week off. Cincy got punked in three straight games early, then reeled off seven consecutive wins to end the year, none by fewer than a touchdown. Sure, it was in the AAC, but that’s not too shabby. Tech was an absolute mess from start to finish, peaking in a Week 2 upset at Ohio State and looking awful in a 6-3 overtime loss to Wake Forest in the penultimate week. The Hokies snuck into a bowl with a victory over rival Virginia in the finale but are terrible offensively and haven’t looked good for months. The Bearcats have a solid offensive attack and will win without issue.

Watchability: 1. VT is really bad.

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Arizona State (9-3) vs. Duke (9-3)

December 27, 11:00 a.m.

Oh, this is a fun one. Blue Devils and Sun Devils! ASU had a stronger season in a much tougher conference and should win this game. However, the Sun Devils have been erratic in the postseason the past decade, and it remains to be seen if the season-ending loss that knocked them out of the Pac-12 Championship (to rival Arizona, no less) will have a hangover effect. Duke’s only win of note came over Georgia Tech and the ACC overall is weak. Still, I think this will be a good matchup. The Blue Devils’ defense is solid and will be entertaining to watch against the high-powered ASU attack. I’ll take the Sun Devils in a shootout.

Watchability: 3. Both sides should score.

Duck Commander Independence Bowl

Miami (FL) (6-6) vs. South Carolina (6-6)

December 27, 12:30 p.m.

And here’s the winner for most ridiculous bowl name. Let us rejoice. Now, about the game… dear god. Both teams finished .500 overall, 3-5 in conference play and suffered through ignominious losing streaks. Miami notched a couple of decent wins over Cincinnati and Duke but lost its final three, while Carolina lost four straight to FBS schools in the midst of a disastrous SEC collapse. Neither team wants to be here and neither should you. I’ll take the Hurricanes, at least their defense isn’t terrible.

Watchability: 1, but only because that’s as low as I can go.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Boston College (7-5) vs. Penn State (6-6)

December 27, 1:30 p.m.

I don’t even know where to begin. Why should teams like Penn State, which won TWO Big Ten games, be allowed to play in the postseason? The Nittany Lions went 4-0 in non-conference play, with the only respectable win over UCF. They proceeded to beat Rutgers by three and Illinois by six and get embarrassed in most of the remainder of their games. Yet here they are. BC is certainly no great shakes either, but at least the Eagles have a win over USC and a couple of reasonably good losses on the resume. PSU is atrocious offensively and cannot be trusted. Take Boston College.

Watchability: 1. The defenses are both good, the offenses both bad.

National University Holiday Bowl

Nebraska (9-3) vs. USC (8-4)

December 27, 5:00 p.m.

Thank goodness for the Holiday Bowl, here to rescue us from perhaps the darkest day of bowl season. I think these teams are pretty well matched, but it’s hard to pick Nebraska because of the cloud hanging over the team. Bo Pelini was a hothead, but by all accounts his players loved him, and it’s difficult to expect them to come out and beat a squad with a superior talent level after their coach’s dismissal. On the other hand, I’ve never been sold on Steve Sarkisian, so if there’s any room to mess this up I’m sure he could do it. The Trojans need this win after blowing a golden opportunity to win the South (just knock the ball down on a Hail Mary, guys), far more than the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is entering a new era and can afford to feel things out with a new coach. SC doesn’t have that luxury. An 8-5 finish would be unacceptable for this team. I’ll take the Trojans, but as always, I don’t trust them.

Watchability: 4. Two storied programs and hint of an early hot seat for Sark?

Autozone Liberty Bowl

Texas A&M (7-5) vs. West Virginia (7-5)

December 29, 11:00 a.m.

Both these teams fooled us. A&M looked like a title contender after thrashing South Carolina on the road on opening night, given that the Gamecocks were supposed to be great. WVU lost competitive games to Alabama and Oklahoma before breaking through with an upset of undefeated Baylor to move to 6-2. Then the wheels came off. The Aggies were exposed once conference play started in earnest, as it turned out Carolina was nothing. A&M dropped five of its final seven. The Mountaineers lost heartbreakers to TCU and Kansas State (sandwiched around a blowout loss to Texas) and had to salvage a seven-win campaign of their own. I actually think WVU is the better team, but the recent news that ‘Eers quarterback Clint Trickett has to retire because of concussion concerns ruins everything. I’ll take A&M.

Watchability: 4. Have you SEEN the way these teams chuck it around?

Russell Athletic Bowl

Oklahoma (8-4) vs. Clemson (9-3)

December 29, 2:30 p.m.

On the list of “2014’s most disappointing teams”, Oklahoma is way up there. The seemingly perpetually overrated Sooners, who entered the year ranked – as usual – in the top five of most rankings, parlayed a favorable Big 12 schedule (five home games, four road) into a 5-4 league record that included three home losses, none worse than the blown 14-point lead in the final minutes of Bedlam that resulted in an overtime win for rival OSU. OU’s defense was once again far too weak for a supposed power team. Clemson, meanwhile, actually flipped its own script, shifting from an up-tempo shootout squad to a tough-minded, gritty group that finished in the top 10 in several defensive categories. I think Oklahoma is unquestionably the more talented team, but you can just never trust the Sooners. I’ll take Clemson.

Watchability: 3. The Tigers have flown under the radar but are pretty good.

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl

Arkansas (6-6) vs. Texas (6-6)

December 29, 6:00 p.m.

Ugh. Another awful mid-schedule bowl between two teams that have no business being in the postseason. To be fair, both of these teams do want to be here; Arkansas ended two years of SEC frustration late in the year and got to a much-deserved .500 record, while UT battled the growing pains of a new era by doing much the same. I like the way the Longhorns played this year and the program seems headed in the right direction, but it’s hard to deny how much the Razorbacks grew in 2014. I expect Arkansas to win this battle of old Southwest Conference rivals.

Watchability: 2. Bad teams, but should be competitive.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Notre Dame (7-5) vs. LSU (8-4)

December 30, 12:00 p.m.

Midway through the season this pairing would have looked like a horrendous mismatch in Notre Dame’s favor. Now it appears to be similarly uneven in favor of LSU. The Fighting Irish have completely collapsed down the stretch amidst a sea of turnovers and creaky defense, lowlighted by a pair of thrashings at the hands of Pac-12 schools (ASU and USC). The Tigers, meanwhile, rebounded from an ugly start to SEC play by growing up quite a lot over the final month. All of LSU’s talented underclassmen finally started to show why they were so highly touted, making this team’s future bright again. Notre Dame is more or less in the opposite position. I’d be surprised if the Tigers didn’t make short work of the scattered Irish.

Watchability: 3. There are no stars here, but it’s a couple of name brands.

Belk Bowl

Georgia (9-3) vs. Louisville (9-3)

December 30, 3:30 p.m.

This might be the first truly great matchup of the bowl season. Louisville lost three games by a combined 19 points, while Georgia should have run away with the SEC East if not for a close loss to South Carolina and curious no-show against Florida. The Cardinals dropped an early game to Virginia but only lost to Clemson and FSU (the best teams in the ACC) the rest of the way. The Bulldogs didn’t get many chances to prove themselves in their weak division but acquitted themselves well when they had the opportunity, with throttlings of Auburn and East champ Missouri. UGA also handily beat Clemson, which knocked off Louisville. The Cardinals’ calling card is their defense, but it’s honestly not much better than Georgia’s. The real difference is on offense. The Bulldogs score – a lot – and the ‘Ville does not. I’m taking Georgia.

Watchability: 3. There are no real offensive stars.

Foster Farms Bowl

Maryland (7-5) vs. Stanford (7-5)

December 30, 7:00 p.m.

Ok, Stanford. I’ll trust you one more time. The Cardinal seemingly have the edge in every facet of this contest. They run the ball better. They throw the ball better (no, really). They have the nation’s second-best scoring defense. And they finally seemed to put it all together in the last two weeks, a pair of road wins over in-state rivals Cal and UCLA, the latter knocking the Bruins out of a division title. The problem, as always, is QB play. Kevin Hogan is due for one of those 45 percent completion, multiple-pick days, and when the run game isn’t going Stanford can grind to a halt pretty quickly. However, the Terrapins aren’t really good enough to take advantage of that offensively and the Maryland D is no great shakes either. I like Stanford to come through in this one.

Watchability: 1. Do not watch this game.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

Ole Miss (9-3) vs. TCU (11-1)

December 31, 9:30 a.m.

A delightful clash of strength vs. strength, this bowl pits the top scoring defense in the country against the No. 2 scoring offense. That’s not to say the opposing offense and defense are bad – Ole Miss scored 30 points a game and TCU allowed just 20 – but the first matchup is what people are tuning in to see. After all the hand-wringing about whether the Horned Frogs should have been left out of the playoff, they’ll be the first team to get a chance to prove the committee wrong. I don’t think they’ll do it. There are a lot of bad defenses in the Big 12, and it’s no coincidence the No. 1 (Baylor), No. 2 (TCU) and No. 10 (Oklahoma) scoring offenses all came from that conference. The Rebels had some bad luck with injuries and a flop performance at LSU, but this was once one of the hottest teams in the country and I think they’ll demonstrate why that was.

Watchability: 5, kicking off a marvelous eight-game stretch in which both teams playing are ranked.

Vizio Fiesta Bowl

Boise State (11-2) vs. Arizona (10-3)

December 31, 1:00 p.m.

Here’s the playoff’s concession to the Group of Five schools… and of course, a Pac-12 team gets stuck playing the mid-major. To be fair, this is a very good matchup. Boise played Ole Miss much closer than the score suggested in their opener and hasn’t lost since September. Arizona has been on a rollercoaster of a season that ended quite poorly (see Oregon 51, Arizona 13). However, in all both teams have essentially maximized their potential in 2014. ‘Zona had no business winning the brutal South but did so anyway, even upsetting Oregon along the way. BSU won a pretty good Mountain West despite fielding a squad with some offensive limitations. Arizona is the favorite, and there’s a reason for that. The Wildcats played a much rougher schedule and handled it as well as the Broncos did theirs (they just lost their conference championship). However, against all reason, I’m leaning toward Boise State. The Pac-12 usually has one big embarrassment per bowl season and it hasn’t happened yet. I can’t shake the feeling the ‘Cats played above their talent level this year and won’t handle the sledgehammer that is RB Jay Ajayi very well.

Watchability: 4. Could be a classic shootout, though Boise State and Arizona don’t exactly excite people.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Mississippi State (10-2) vs. Georgia Tech (10-3)

December 31, 5:00 p.m.

Statistically, you can’t really make a case for Tech. MSU was better and more consistent both offensively and defensively (by a wide margin) this season. However, the way both teams ended the year changes things significantly. The Bulldogs struggled against the last two good teams they played, falling to both Alabama and Ole Miss. The Yellow Jackets clobbered Clemson, upset Georgia, then nearly beat Florida State. Along the way GT finally got the vaunted option going and started to look like one of the Paul Johnson teams of old. MSU should win this game, no doubt. I’m picking them to use the time off wisely and study up on how to contain the Yellow Jackets’ attack. But this is an intriguing matchup, especially if Tech gets rolling early. Could be fun.

Watchability: 4. A couple of good teams in this one.

Outback Bowl

Auburn (8-4) vs. Wisconsin (10-3)

January 1, 9:00 a.m.

This game changed when Auburn WR D’haquille Williams was suspended, but the Tigers still have WR Sammie Coates and the dynamic (if somewhat erratic) Nick Marshall at QB and Cameron Artis-Payne at RB. As usual, Auburn plays very little defense, though it’s fair to question the Wisconsin D’s bona fides after that 59-0 shellacking in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers do have the nation’s leading rusher in Melvin Gordon, but they’re otherwise pretty bereft of offensive talent, and the QB play has been downright atrocious. Auburn played a much tougher schedule, so even though the 8-4 finish was a bit disappointing it’s not exactly a disaster. Wisconsin has to get out early in this game and continue to run the ball, because getting behind the up-tempo Tigers will spell doom for this ground-and-pound attack. I like Auburn.

Watchability: 3. Both teams were slightly disappointing this season.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Michigan State (10-2) vs. Baylor (11-1)

January 1, 9:30 a.m.

I get to cheat a little on this one, because I picked against TCU and the Horned Frogs romped over Ole Miss. Honestly, I was planning on taking Baylor in this game anyway, so that result only bolstered my resolution. MSU has been its typical stingy self in 2014, but in the two biggest games (Oregon and Ohio State) the Spartans’ defense got worked. Bad news, State fans: Baylor’s offense is better than those teams’. In fact, the Bears led the nation in scoring. The breakneck Bear Raid usually has one or two meltdowns per year, but I think we already saw the worst of Baylor at West Virginia earlier this season. Good thought Sparty may be, I don’t see MSU being ready for firepower the likes of which they’ve never seen.

Watchability: 4. As Baylor also tends to play little defense, this could be a shootout.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

Missouri (10-3) vs. Minnesota (8-4)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

Hard to know what to expect in this one. Mizzou won 10 regular season games and won the (weak) SEC East, but didn’t really beat anyone and lost at home to Indiana. Minnesota actually played a tougher schedule and played it better, battling Ohio State and Wisconsin in close losses and upsetting Nebraska. I do think the Tigers have the greater overall athleticism, but they haven’t really shown it this year. In the end, I’m giving a slight nod to Missouri because of the closer locale and higher talent level, but it’s no sure thing. The Tigers’ offense has been pitiful at times this season (see: Georgia and Alabama losses) and the Gophers could absolutely take advantage of that weakness.

Watchability: 2. These teams shouldn’t be playing on New Years’ Day.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual

Oregon (12-1) vs. Florida State (13-0)

January 1, 2:00 p.m.

The first of the two semifinal games, and the first playoff game in major-college football history. Oregon and FSU have each battled adversity this season and constitute a worthy pairing for the Granddaddy. The Seminoles haven’t lost in 29 games and have been definition of clutch this season, escaping time and time again from seemingly insurmountable deficits. Give FSU credit; this team has never allowed an opponent to fully knock it out and has all the confidence such a long winning streak brings. Oregon has looked brilliant when completely healthy and should be more or less at that point in this game. The Ducks also boast their first Heisman winner and are ranked third in the country in offense.

To me, the game comes down to a few factors. First, Jameis Winston. How will the embattled ‘Noles QB play? His sophomore season has been rough compared to his transcendent 2013 Heisman year. However, he has played excellently in several second halves to save FSU, and he’s completely capable of putting it all together again in this game. He’ll be facing a secondary missing its best player, cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, which is a gigantic loss for UO. Second, how will Oregon’s offense respond to the athleticism of the Seminoles? This isn’t last-year’s defense, but it’s still pretty good. In the end, I think the Ducks will prevail. This is neither the best offense or defense they’ll see this season, they played a much more difficult schedule and they’ve been the better team to this point. FSU can certainly win this contest, but has been too up-and-down to accurately predict – or trust.

Watchability: 5. This is a must-see.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Alabama (12-1) vs. Ohio State (12-1)

January 1, 5:30 p.m.

An equally appealing semifinal, but one that’s far easier to predict. Ohio State has been very good this season since the Week 2 debacle against Virginia Tech, and it’s a testament to the ability of the Buckeyes’ staff that they’ve been able to cycle through three QB’s since August without skipping a beat. But this is Alabama and Nick Saban. This is a different animal, and even though the Crimson Tide may not be the terrifying juggernaut they have been in recent years, they still should be more than capable of handling a team led by a QB making his second career start.

Strange as it sounds, the difference could end up being the ‘Bama offense. For once the Tide are imposing on the other side of the ball, thanks to the schemes of (gulp) Lane Kiffin and the connection between QB Blake Sims and WR Amari Cooper. Alabama can actually put pressure on the OSU defense by scoring quickly, unusual for a Saban team. Oh, and just in case it seemed the Tide defense had disappeared, note that they still finished third in the country in scoring defense. Cardale Jones may be talented, but it’s unfathomable to me that ‘Bama wouldn’t be able to contain what is still a run-oriented attack with a full month to prepare.

Watchability: 5. Should be fun to see this play out.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Houston (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)

January 2, 9:00 a.m.

Interesting matchup here. I traditionally like Houston, especially in bowl games, and there’s no real reason to suspect yet another middling Pitt team (how many times has this team gone 6-6 in the past decade?) will rise up to win this one. But the Panthers are deceptively good on offense, averaging more than 250 yards per game on the ground. More importantly, the AAC hasn’t looked good this postseason, as Cincy and UCF (co-champions) went down. I think there’s a good chance Pitt takes this one.

Watchability: 2. The Cougs can go wild at times, but I don’t have my hopes up.

Taxslayer Bowl

Iowa (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6)

January 2, 12:20 p.m.

There’s not a matchup of two more similar teams the entire bowl season. Both the Hawkeyes and Volunteers have decent passing offenses, bad rushing attacks and slightly above-average defenses. Neither team had any good wins, but both had a couple of respectable close losses to quality foes. UT played a slightly tougher schedule, but had one more loss, so it really all evens out. I have no idea who will have the edge in this contest. My general rule of thumb in such games is to back the better QB, which is Iowa’s Jake Rudock.

Watchability: 1. Neither squad is very good.

Valero Alamo Bowl

Kansas State (9-3) vs. UCLA (9-3)

January 2, 3:45 p.m.

A couple of interesting stories in this game. K-State should have beaten Auburn in September and played competitive games against Baylor and TCU, the Big 12’s elite teams. All in all, it was another solid season for the perpetually underrated and underappreciated Wildcats. UCLA had about the most headache-inducing year of any team outside of Florida State, as the Bruins battled massive preseason (over)hype, mid-season turmoil within the program and questions about the coaching staff’s ability to still finish 9-3. However, while the Wildcats’ season was unquestionably a success, UCLA’s was very disappointing. The Bruins blew a golden opportunity to win the Pac-12 South in their finale (at home, no less) and were relegated to a (relatively) lesser bowl. Once again, KSU boasts a quality defense, despite a noticeable lack of next-level talent. UCLA, for all its talent, scores less and allows more points than the Wildcats. I expect K-State to do what it does and beat another team with superior talent.

Watchability: 4. This is one of the last good games before the national championship.

Ticketcity Cactus Bowl

Washington (8-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)

January 2, 7:15 p.m.

Oh, Washington. Thanks to a 13-game schedule, the Huskies finished with a nice-looking eight wins, but all five games against ranked foes turned out badly for UW. OSU performed much the same, playing six ranked opponents and losing to five (though the win was over Oklahoma, who fell out of the rankings after that game). I would have probably taken the Cowboys simply because of how bland the Huskies’ offense was this year, but that was before the recent ugly situation with OSU’s Tyreek Hill, hero of the Bedlam game and one of the best pure athletes in the country. Hill is gone from the program, and with the quality of defense Washington has I would hope they could figure out a way to win this game. I’ll trust the Huskies to get this done.

Watchability: 2. Nothing special.

Birmingham Bowl

East Carolina (8-4) v. Florida (6-5)

January 3, 9:00 a.m.

Despite an underwhelming campaign that got the coach fired, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Florida win this game. The Gators still play some nice D and have a great counter to ECU’s big-play passing in the form of all-world CB Vernon Hargreaves. The issue, as always is UF’s offense, which was again a hot mess in 2014. If the Pirates get up early, I’m not confident the Gators can mount more than a single TD drive to get back in the game. However, if Florida can grind the game to a halt and make it a slugfest, things will get interesting in a hurry. ECU hasn’t fared well in those situations this season. I’ll still take the Pirates, but it feels shaky.

Watchability: 2. Shane Carden is a QB worth watching.

GoDaddy Bowl

Toledo (8-4) vs. Arkansas State (7-5)

January 4, 6:00 p.m.

Arkansas State has been pretty good in bowls the past few seasons, which is the main reason I’m taking the Red Wolves. Toledo had a marginally better season in a marginally better conference, but that’s not enough to move the needle. Most importantly, this contest matches two Stanzi finalists in the Rockets’ Logan Woodside and Arky State’s Fredi Knighten, who combined for six this season. What a treat! Otherwise, the two squads are remarkably similar, with mediocre defenses and balanced, fairly high-scoring offenses. I like Arkansas State, but it could go either way.

Watchability: 3. The potential for slapstick QB play is high.

And that will do it! Bowl Week 2 is over, and all that’s left is the inaugural College Football Playoff Championship. That deserves its own post, which is coming in the next week. Happy New Year.

Bowl Week 1 has come

It’s bowl season! This year, thanks to the introduction of a “Plus-one” format, there are more postseason games than ever before. I hope everyone wanted to see 6-6 South Alabama and 7-6 Bowling Green in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl! No? 6-7 Fresno State and 7-5 Rice in the Hawai’i Bowl? Well, there’s just no pleasing some people.

As usual, I’ll have to break down the bowls by week to preview; there’s simply too many of them to analyze all at once. Each game will, as usual, be rated on a scale of watchability. I’ll indicate when I think one team is more likely to win, but bowls are a crapshoot in that regard. It’s impossible to know which coaches are going to secretly stab their teams in the back the week before and run to greener pastures, which programs feel slighted and want to prove something and which teams honestly don’t care. I can only go on what I’ve seen. Which is generally quite a lot. All listed times are Pacific, because why would they not be?

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Nevada (7-5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)

December 20, 8:00 a.m.

Bowl season kicks off with a relatively even matchup of decent but forgettable mid-majors. Nevada is the better team in my mind; the Wolf Pack went 4-4 in what turned out to be a pretty rough-and-tumble Mountain West and played two Pac-12 teams along the way, beating WSU and barely losing to South champion Arizona. Nevada also lost to Boise State and Colorado State (the two best teams in the MWC) by a total of 12 points. Cody Fajardo is as good as it gets for mid-major quarterbacks. I do have a soft spot for Lafayette – the Ragin’ Cajun mascot as ridiculous, and QB Terrance Broadway is a delight – but the Sun Belt is pretty weak. These teams play almost identical football, it just isn’t that great of an exhibition.

Watchability: 3. The QB’s swung this up one notch.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Utah State (9-4) vs. UTEP (7-5)

December 20, 11:20 a.m.

There were so many opportunities for Utah State the past few seasons on which the Aggies barely failed to capitalize. Many of them involved fallen star QB Chuckie Keeton. Alas, Keeton’s career is over, and so we too must move on. Neither USU or Texas El-Paso beat anyone of note this season or played anyone of quality to a close game. The Mountain West is stronger than Conference USA, but the real difference is in the division schedule the teams played. In a game with anemic offenses, I’d lean toward the one known commodity – the Utah State defense. The Aggies from the west (sort of) have made defense their rallying cry since Gary Andersen was the head coach, and the Miners don’t have that same tradition. This will probably be a close, highly unwatchable game.

Watchability: 1. Not going to be pretty.

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl

Utah (8-4) vs. Colorado State (10-2)

December 20, 12:30 p.m.

It feels like Prince should be involved in this somehow. Anyway, the Utes are coming off their most successful season in the Pac-12 yet, beating UCLA and USC and going 5-4 in the brutal South despite drawing Oregon and Stanford from the North. By all accounts, eight wins should be a cause for celebration. Unfortunately, the three losses in four games (after a 6-1 start) to knock the team from championship contention hurt, and the near-disaster against Colorado in the finale didn’t help. Colorado State has been criminally underrated all season, going 10-2 in a Mountain Division that featured four nine-win squads. I think there’s a good chance the Rams win this game. CSU never got the credit it deserved this year and should be hurting after losing the finale to Air Force and its coach to Florida. Wouldn’t it be just like the Utes to come out and embarrass the Pac-12 in their first real showcase game?

Watchability: 3. The teams aren’t flashy, but they’re good top-to-bottom.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Western Michigan (8-4) vs. Air Force (9-3)

December 20, 2:45 p.m.

WMU’s got a guy most folks have never heard of named Zach Terrell. The Broncos’ QB isn’t big, but he’s thrown for 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions. I like him a lot, and given the extra time Western will have to prepare for the Air Force option I almost picked him to lead the Broncos to a win here. However, there’s a lot going in the Falcons’ favor in this game. For one, it’s in Boise, which is a very familiar location for the academy. Second, not only did the Falcons earn their nine wins in the best mid-major division in the country (that Mountain Division again), they actually beat Boise State and Colorado State, the two best teams in the MWC. This isn’t a horrible mismatch, but I’ll take Air Force.

Watchability: 2. The Falcons’ bastardized triple option is interesting, but that’s about it.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

South Alabama (6-6) vs. Bowling Green (7-6)

December 20, 6:15 p.m.

We soldier on to the blessed end of the opening day of bowl season with a pair of .500 mid-majors very few people care about whatsoever. South Alabama (USA!) isn’t that bad, but the Jaguars aren’t really that good, either, as seen by their ugly outings against SEC opponents. Bowling Green had an underwhelming honeymoon season following its MAC championship in 2013, largely due to the collapse of what had been one the nation’s stingiest defenses. I honestly don’t know who to take here, and I honestly don’t want to know. I’m glad I saw as little of these teams as possible this year. BGSU did win the (much weaker) MAC East, but even that is a poor endorsement.

Watchability: 1. Don’t lock eyes with this game, lest it draw you in to its stupefying awfulness.

Miami Beach Bowl

BYU (8-4) vs. Memphis (9-3)

December 22, 11:00 a.m.

Now that’s more like it! BYU wasn’t the same after losing QB Taysom Hill to a broken leg midway through the season, but the Cougars are still pretty talented and have the ability to make this a good game. No comment on the team-location paring of BYU and Miami. Memphis had a great year, winning its last six and earning a share of the American title with Cincinnati and UCF, both of which the Tigers did not play, because the AAC is ridiculous. Ugh. Anyway, this is rarefied air for the Memphis program, which was a traditional doormat in the Conference USA and played much better this year despite a minor step up in competition. I really want to pick the Tigers in this game… but I have a slight lean toward BYU. I think the Cougars are more accustomed to this stage and have rallied impressively the second half of the year. Unless some crazy stuff happens in South Beach, I’ll go BYU.

Watchability: 3. A couple a quality squads here, though no real stars.

Boca Raton Bowl

Marshall (12-1) vs. Northern Illinois (11-2)

December 23, 3:00 p.m.

Wow, what did America do to get a game like this before Christmas? 23 combined wins from the two most successful mid-majors in the country this season? Sign me up. NIU continued to run roughshod over the MAC for another year, while Marshall – everyone’s preseason pick from the Group of Five to go undefeated and make a “New Year’s 6” bowl – stumbled once but otherwise provided all the offensive excitement expected. The schedules the teams played are roughly comparable; neither made any effort to spruce up slates of complete patsies. The Huskies have been one of the top mid-majors for a while, but I like Marshall in this one. The Thundering Herd are much better offensively, given that they can actually throw the ball, and also have the best player on the field in QB Rakeem Cato. It’ll probably be high-scoring and a lot of fun.

Watchability: 5. Both teams nearly reached major bowls.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Navy (7-5) vs. San Diego State (7-5)

December 23, 6:30 p.m.

In a world where bowl sponsorships change yearly, I’m not sure how the S.D.C.C.U. has managed to hold onto this bowl for so long. It’s no longer the most ridiculous bowl name out there (spoilers!) but it’s certainly silly. The difference between these teams is one of offensive intent: Navy is one of the worst passing teams in football by design, as the triple option eats up most of the playbook; SDSU is simply bad at throwing the ball. The Aztecs (who will be playing at home) do have the far better defense and had to weather a Mountain West schedule. However, I can’t trust a team this anemic. If the Midshipmen’s ground attack gets rolling, SDSU will have no way to come back. I like Navy.

Watchability: 2. Support the triple option, but otherwise no.

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl

Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Western Kentucky (7-5)

December 24, 9:00 a.m.

This is a fun contrast of styles. CMU has a solid 1-2-3 punch in QB Cooper Rush, RB Thomas Rawls and WR Titus Davis and was the only MAC team to knock off Northern Illinois. The Chippewas (one of the better mascots in the sport) allowed only 23 points a game, although they did also lose to Kansas. WKU is awful defensively but an offensive juggernaut, piling up 44 points a game behind QB Brandon Doughty, who led the nation in passing yards. I’m going against tendency here and taking the Hilltoppers, who have a couple of quality wins this season, including a 67-66 upset of then-unbeaten Marshall in the finale.

Watchability: 3. The teams aren’t great, but there should be points.

Hawai’i Bowl

Fresno State (6-7) vs. Rice (7-5)

December 24, 5:00 p.m.

Fresno really shouldn’t even be in a bowl game. The Bulldogs were outscored by 4.5 points per game this year, coming way down after last season’s magical run. Their inconsistent offense relies largely on RB Marteze Waller and WR Josh Harper, the defense isn’t any better than it was in 2013 and anyone who watched Fresno knows how mediocre they looked. However… Rice’s defense isn’t any better, and while the Owls’ offense is more balanced than the Bulldogs it’s hardly scary. Common sense says Rice is the better team, but I’m having a tough time taking them. Neither team beat anyone of quality, but at least Fresno played some decent teams. Losses to USC, Utah, Nebraska and Boise State are forgivable. Losses to Notre Dame and Texas A&M, two of the biggest flops in college football this year, really aren’t.

Watchability: 1. There are so many better ways to spend Christmas Eve.

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl

Illinois (6-6) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-5)

December 26, 10:00 a.m.

The Illini went 6-6 in the Big Ten, which is like going 4-8 in a real power conference. Now, Tech lost to an FCS team, which is bad, but otherwise the Bulldogs are pretty good. LTU didn’t lose in regulation to a conference opponent and should have beaten Marshall for the C-USA title. Once again, the offense is what powers the Bulldogs, though the defense has taken a bit of a step up this season. I have very little faith in Illinois; not only did the Illini finish .500 in a bad league, they got blown out in most of their losses. Illinois ended the year more than a full TD in negative plus/minus. The pick is Louisiana Tech all the way.

Watchability: 1. This is the rough stretch.

Quick Lane Bowl

Rutgers (7-5) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

December 26, 1:30 p.m.

Ugh. Neither of these teams should be in the postseason. Both the Knights and Tar Heels were outscored on the season, going a tepid 7-9 combined in their respective (bad) conferences. UNC fielded one of the worst defenses in the FBS, allowing nearly 500 yards and 39 points per game and never holding an opponent to less than 20 points. It’s not as if Rutgers was significantly better; the Knights gave up 31 points a game themselves. In this game, I’ll stick to the best unit on the field. Carolina’s offense was quite good this season once the Tar Heels settled on the dynamic Marquise Williams at QB, whereas Rutgers has again struggled to find consistency behind Gary Nova. I wouldn’t be surprised with either side winning, but in a contest with two bad defenses it’s better to go with the stronger offense.

Watchability: 3. I expect points at the expense of any semblance of defense.

Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl

North Carolina State (7-5) vs. Central Florida (9-3)

December 26, 5:00 p.m.

This feels like a pretty easy one to predict. Neither team is very impressive offensively. The one strong unit in the contest is the UCF defense, which gave up a mere 18 points per game. The Knights should have breezed to an undefeated conference record, but had a bizarre meltdown at Connecticut that cost them an outright AAC title. NCSU’s defensive average looks respectable, but delving deeper shows the Wolfpack gave up a ton of points to every good team they played. The ACC isn’t very good and all this team could manage was three league wins. The key is Knights QB Justin Holman, whose mercurial play has defined this team in 2014. If he plays well, UCF ought to win in a cakewalk. If he tosses four picks like he did against UConn, it’s a different story.

Watchability: 2. ACC vs. AAC. No one really cares.

That’s it for week one of bowl season, but check back in for the stuffed week two, featuring a ridiculous 23 games culminating with the New Year’s Six and National Semifinals. The College Football Playoff (gotta work on that name) is nearly here!

The Playoff is set

National Overview

Oh, college football. How do I love thee? Let me count the ways. A glorious 2014 season wrapped up Saturday night with Ohio State’s absolute annihilation of Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game (although technically, Boise State’s Mountain West championship win came later). From the neutral-site Week 1 matchups to the indulgent conference championship games, 2014 was a delightful, wild ride from start to finish.

Now we have the inaugural playoff, which – for the time being – is restricted to just four teams. I’ll get to the lucky quartet in a moment, but let’s take a second to look at how those squads got here. After all the intrigue and chaotic scenarios everyone cooked up, the final weekend turned out to be pretty boring. Oregon throttled Arizona Friday night, easily clinching one spot. Alabama more or less did the same to Missouri midday Saturday. That left Florida State, which pulled away in the fourth quarter on Georgia Tech… and one question mark.

TCU, ranked third last week by the committee, led only 17-3 over hapless Iowa State at halftime, then raced to a 55-3 victory. Baylor controlled its game with Kansas State from the outset, winning by 11. Then Ohio State took Wisconsin to the woodshed, and burned the woodshed to the ground, and salted the earth with the tears of every Badgers fan’s firstborn (reenactment here). That’s when the discussion got very, very interesting.

Playoff Bracket

So, did the committee get it right? I don’t envy those people at all. Three slots were all but filled, sure, but that might have made things more difficult. If another contender had lost the committee would have only had the task of fitting three schools into two spots, instead of one. As it was, I think the committee went one-for-two. Ohio State is the right team at No. 4.

Baylor was the most deserving team, winning a stronger conference and defeating TCU, which had no business being in the discussion by not being true champions. However, perception matters, and the committee clearly believed – along with most of the country, including myself – the Bears looked like the weakest of the three on film. You could see that reflected in how the poll voters ranked the Horned Frogs in recent weeks; there was an overwhelming, unspoken belief that Baylor got lucky against TCU and was the lesser squad. I (and unfortunately for Baylor, the committee) agree.

That doesn’t mean OSU is some kind of juggernaut. The Buckeyes have by far the worst loss of any reasonably good team (by 14 at home to 6-6 Virginia Tech). The Big Ten is terrible, producing only one other team capable of playing with OSU (Michigan State). Lest we forget, Cardale Jones is the former third-string quarterback, and there’s no guarantee he’ll play as well as he did in the Big Ten Championship when he has to face a real defense with a month to prepare.

I also think the committee got Nos. 1 and 2 wrong. I had Alabama first after the win in the Iron Bowl, but it was close. Oregon’s obliteration of Arizona swung the pendulum back to the Ducks, and ‘Bama didn’t have a good enough opponent in the SEC title game to answer. Mizzou isn’t good, period. The Tigers were clearly the second-best team in their own awful division (losing 34-0 at home to Georgia) but had the good fortune of drawing easier interdivision foes than the Bulldogs. Missouri lost at home to 3-9 Indiana. Alabama beat Mizzou by less than Oregon did Arizona, and UO pulled its starters after three quarters.

Oregon’s overall resume is simply better, with a non-conference victory over Michigan State making up for a slightly easier conference schedule. The Ducks also got an opportunity the Crimson Tide didn’t with: a rematch with the team that beat them. By proving that October loss was a fluke, UO avenged its only black mark (also a better loss than Alabama’s, according to the committee) AND notched another top-10 win.

Moreover, putting the Ducks at No. 1 would have allowed the committee to match up the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions in the Rose Bowl and the SEC and ACC champs in the Sugar Bowl – perfect for soothing the irritated old guard who cared more about tradition than deciding a true national champion on the field. It’s the same teams, but a better bracket. This should have been an easy decision and the committee dropped the ball.

Pac-12 Report

Well… how about that? I wouldn’t have been surprised by anything from a close Arizona win to a medium-sized Oregon one, but I really didn’t expect what happened Friday. The Ducks did literally everything offensively I said they needed to do last week, and they did it with a cold, ruthless efficiency uncommon for this program. After some first-half jitters, it was near-perfection. Marcus Mariota completed all 11 of his passes after the break, wrapping up the Heisman in the process.

The defense topped the offense, flat-lining the Wildcats’ attack from before their first snap (UA fumbled the kickoff away on what would have been its first possession) and harassing Anu Solomon into one of his worst performances before an injury ended his night. As I said they must, Oregon dominated the point of attack, never allowing ‘Zona to hit those killer inside runs that opened the secondary up to play fakes in the previous two meetings. It was one of the best efforts by a UO defense in years, and it appeared to finally “complete” the Ducks as a truly elite squad.

For Arizona, it was another in a growing list of agonizing near-misses in championship scenarios. As good as Oregon is, it was pretty stunning to see how lifeless the Wildcats were in what would have probably been the biggest win in program history. Solomon’s previous injury hampered him some, but even his absolute best might not have been enough to make up for a defense that did nothing to slow an offense it had held to a total of 40 points in the last two games. ‘Zona still had a great season, but this result was obviously disappointing.

Heisman Watch

Any arguments at this point are ignorant or the work of huge homers. Marcus Mariota is the best player in the country by a wide margin and will win the Heisman trophy.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The Big 12 isn’t happy with the selection committee, but it should really be mad at itself. The “One True Champion” garbage was embarrassingly transparent; if the conference really thought that was the case, then why did it look down upon the Pac-10 for years when the west coast league was doing the same thing? Funny how things change when someone else is benefitting from the system you helped create (the SEC and Big 12 were the first two conferences to split into divisions and play conference championship games).

Of course, the real culprit is conference commissioner Bob Bowlsby, who royally screwed the Big 12 by declaring the league wouldn’t name a single champion (really? Have you SEEN your conference’s tagline?), instead allowing the committee to decide whether Baylor or TCU was more deserving. The idea, obviously, was to potentially get both the Bears and Horned Frogs in the final four. The committee, thankfully, saw through this pathetic attempt to game the system and said, “no thanks.” The Big 12 would be best served adding two schools to get back to 12 and play a conference championship again. My suggestions would be: Marshall, a rival and eastern partner for West Virginia; SMU, a former Southwest Conference foe of the Texas schools, or… BYU. Why not, nothing is sacred in college football anymore.

Stanzi Winner

There was just never going to be any doubt. Jameis Winston ran away with the 2014 Stanzi. Of the 12 games he played for Florida State, 9 wins came by two scores or less. He picked up five Stanzis during that span, a remarkable 55 percent “success” mark that may stand forever. I’ll probably have to give it at least a few months’ thought, but the Stanzi award may have to be renamed. Here is our winner and the finalists.

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 5

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 4

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Justin Holman, UCF: 3

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 2

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 2

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 2

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2

Cooper Rush, CMU: 2

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 2

Brian Burell, Fresno State: 2

J.T. Barrett, Ohio State: 2

The days grow short and the leaves disappear, but football season marches on. It’s time for the weird and wacky postseason of FBS football (and don’t forget Army-Navy). The Bowl Preview is coming soon.

Working 3-3-5

National Overview

What a time to be a college football fan. The system is changing from the inside out, there will soon be a fourth division consisting solely of power schools and the inaugural playoff is nearly here, while the level of play has, if anything, risen this season. A delightful rivalry week from sunup to sundown (and well into the night) delivered as the exclamation point on a remarkable 2014. Once again we got shocking upsets and emotional finales, and for the first time this year, some clarity.

Fact: The four playoff contestants will hail from four different leagues (as they should). The SEC’s hopes of squeezing a second team into the final four disappeared with Mississippi State’s Egg Bowl loss, and for a moment it seemed Alabama would doom the conference by going down as well. Ah, but the Crimson Tide survived the Iron Bowl and advanced, saving the SEC’s bacon (sorry, Arkansas) for at least one more week. More on this in a moment.

Florida State, once again, was awful, this time gagging out a 24-19 victory over hapless Florida. Oregon dominated Oregon State, but now must face a familiar foe – Arizona – after the Wildcats won the Duel in the Desert and UCLA flopped in face-palmingly familiar fashion against Stanford. Georgia also went down to Georgia Tech, part of an ugly 0-4 weekend for the SEC against traditional ACC rivals, but fortunately Missouri secured the East to save the SEC from total embarrassment.

The reason those contests were significant is because of the danger they now pose to their respective conferences. The Pac-12 is relatively safe; if Oregon avenges its earlier loss, the Ducks are a shoo-in, while Arizona would have a very strong case for the playoff with a second UO upset. The SEC and ACC are in a much more precarious position. If ‘Bama loses to Missouri or FSU falls to Georgia Tech, the underdogs wouldn’t make the playoff. I think one of those scenarios is much more likely than the other, and ultimately I’ll pick both the Tide and Seminoles to win anyway. Still, we’re two weird upsets from an apocalyptic shakeup that would rattle the committee to its core.

But what of the fourth spot? This is where things get very interesting. If Baylor beats Kansas State the Bears will be the undisputed Big 12 champions, regardless of whatever silly language exists in the conference’s tiebreaking rules. An 11-1 Big 12 champ would be hard to deny. So would a 12-1 Big Ten champ, if Ohio State knocks off Wisconsin. The Big Ten is weaker than the Big 12, but it’s not that big a gap, and the extra win could boost the Buckeyes’ resume. Of course, that’s assuming the committee still gives OSU the benefit of the doubt after quarterback J.T. Barrett’s season-ending injury. Wacky scenarios abound.

There are quite a few good games this week outside of the conference championships. It’s a shame UCF – ECU doesn’t have American championship implications, because the Knights and Pirates are both good teams. Catch that one on Thursday, it’s the only thing on. Friday has the MAC title game rematch of Bowling Green – Northern Illinois and the Pac-12 Championship, which should be a barn-burner. More on that in the Pac-12 section.

Saturday brings the good stuff, like the Conference USA Championship (Louisiana Tech – Marshall), another solid AAC matchup with Houston – Cincinnati and potentially the game of the week when Kansas State meets Baylor. There’s also Alabama – Mizzou in the SEC Championship, Florida State – Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship and Wisconsin – Ohio State for the Big Ten title. Lots on the line. Should be great.

Playoff Poll

It’s gotten harder in some ways to separate clumps of teams, but there are couple of clear delineations that can be made. Oregon and Alabama are 1-2 in some order, FSU is third, and the rest is a mess.

College Football Playoff

1) Alabama vs. 4) Baylor

2) Oregon vs. 3) Florida State

Gave the Tide the nod this week, as beating Auburn is a more impressive feat than round-housing Oregon State, even if ‘Bama was on the ropes for three quarters against a team that finished .500 in conference play. Oregon sits above the ‘Noles, who looked awful again in victory over a bad team. Baylor holds onto the coveted four spot, pending a K-State win this week.

Second Tier

TCU

Ohio State

TCU is praying for KSU to knock off the Baylor team it should have beat. At 11-1 with a true conference title, the Horned Frogs would be in. Ohio State still has just the one loss, but now has a huge asterisk. How will the committee view the team without its QB? What if the Buckeyes struggle, but still win the Big Ten? I think they’re on the outside looking in unless there’s an upset.

Third Tier

Arizona

At two losses it didn’t feel right to include ‘Zona with TCU and OSU, but the opportunity is there. With a win this week the Wildcats would be 12-2, Pac-12 champs and hold wins over Oregon (twice), Utah and Arizona State, with both losses (USC and UCLA) pretty forgivable. It would probably take one more upset (like Georgia Tech over FSU), but don’t count this team out. They backdoored their way into the South title and can do it with the playoff, too.

Pac-12 Report

Well, then. After all the preseason speculation about USC and UCLA, whether ASU could stay relevant, whether Utah could ever become relevant… Arizona is the South winner. Congrats to the Wildcats. They earned it, beating Oregon in Eugene and taking out their rivals in the finale to reap the benefit of UCLA’s choke job. This is the worst matchup for UO in the conference (which I’ll get into momentarily) and ‘Zona had to survive a gauntlet to get here. Job well done.

Oregon took a slightly less perilous path to the North title, clinching with two weeks to spare thanks to minor collapses by Stanford and Washington, ostensibly the Ducks’ most formidable division foes. UO wrapped up a dominant seven-game stretch with a 28-point win over Oregon State where the only real concern was health going into the Arizona rematch. The chance for redemption is pretty appealing.

Arizona State has to be kicking itself after dropping not one but two chances to return to the Pac-12 Championship. The Oregon State loss hurt, but the Sun Devils got another shot when UCLA went down to Stanford. Instead, it was Arizona that took advantage. That has to hurt. UCLA is in much the same boat, as the Bruins completed a massively disappointing 9-3 campaign that bounced up and down and ultimately went as far as their overhyped QB could carry them. Which is to say, not very far. Kudos to Stanford for rebounding and ending the year on a strong note, though. The Cardinal beat two of their traditional rivals, Cal and UCLA, to end the year.

Cal’s loss to BYU was painful on both a personal level (the Bears really deserved a bowl bid) and a wide-ranging level (the Pac-12 could have used another postseason squad), but fortunately Utah avoided a major upset to Colorado and USC represented the league well by shredding Notre Dame. Washington also helped out by thrashing Washington State to reach eight wins again. The conference finished the year in strong position and managed to get its two best teams to the title game (something not every league did).

So… about that Wildcats – Ducks rematch. It’s certainly a good matchup and should make for a great game. As I said earlier in the year, Arizona presents a special challenge for Oregon. The ‘Cats unusual 3-3-5 stack defense, a RichRod staple since his time at West Virginia, is the worst possible formation for UO to attack. The weaknesses of the 3-3-5 are in its front; the lack of bulk with only three linemen and three linebackers is exploitable by offenses that can effectively power the ball downhill. That’s really not Oregon’s specialty, as the Ducks like to spread defenses out and run laterally – or at least semi-laterally – with the read option game.

Unfortunately for UO, that’s exactly what the 3-3-5 (essentially a “spread defense”) is designed to combat. By throwing an extra defensive back on the field, Arizona can match up speed with speed and run with the Ducks (pretty effectively, I might add) while forcing individual skill players to beat their man, bringing pressure from all angles all the while. It’s a funky, rarely seen base defense, which adds to the confusion offensive players feel when facing it. Blocking assignments shift, coverages look different and a small mistake can lead to a blown-up play. It’s really not surprising that, down four O-linemen, Oregon looked bad against this defense in October. For more information, here are some helpful links about the 3-3-5.

However, that’s just one side of the coin, and the other offense/defense matchup is just as important. To be frank, ‘Zona has bludgeoned UO with the run game the past two meetings, primarily through the same zone-read concepts Oregon has used for seven years. There’s no excuse for it; UA has simply won at the point of attack more often than not and allowed its talented ball-carriers to reach the second level unmolested. That has to change if Oregon wants to win this game. The Ducks are too talented to let the same thing happen three straight times.

If Oregon can in fact slow the run game and make the Wildcats one-dimensional, its odds of winning will improve dramatically. Anu Solomon has had an excellent freshman season for Arizona, but he is still a freshman and has made plays from time to time that show his age and inexperience. Without a running attack to lean on, his job will become much more difficult, and he’ll be more prone to mistakes and turnovers. Oregon needs to force Solomon into that kind of game to control how he plays. If ‘Zona starts rolling on the ground, he can pick the Ducks apart. To win this game, UO has to set the defensive tone early and establish that nothing will come easy for the Wildcats offense.

Who wins? Oregon seemed to have a “Stanford problem” for a while, now it appears to have an “Arizona problem.” Both opponents presented a bad matchup stylistically for the Ducks, for more or less opposite reasons. There’s a very good chance Arizona comes out and has a repeat of its performance earlier in the year. The Wildcats are good, fast and matchup well with UO, which has a lot of injuries and will be missing at least a couple of important parts. It’s a recipe for disaster for the Ducks.

However, I will stubbornly pick Oregon to win. It’s hard enough to beat a team twice in one season; it’s even harder when that team is demonstrably better than you. The Ducks are better than Arizona. That’s a fact. They’re more talented, more experienced and have possibly the best player in country on their side. UO will have a healthier offensive line in this meeting (does anyone think Hroniss Grasu really won’t play?) and should be able to run the ball more consistently inside, where the Wildcats are weakest. It’s the perfect redemption storyline and I think the Ducks will fight tooth and claw to achieve it and accomplish the goals that have eluded them the past two years.

Heisman Watch

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

The Pac-12 single-season touchdown record, the career record (in three years) and just two interceptions. Barring a meltdown against Arizona, Mariota will win.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

Gordon can still break Barry Standers regular-season record (although that will probably be after the ceremony, as he needs about 400 yards). If he does it against Ohio State, this becomes interesting.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I’m not sure what the committee’s fascination is with TCU. The Horned Frogs are good, no doubt. But leaping to third over Florida State seems a step too far. TCU is not in the same category as Alabama and Oregon, and while the Frogs should have beat Baylor, they didn’t. The Bears hold that tiebreaker and there is absolutely no way TCU’s non-conference win over Minnesota makes up for that head-to-head result. We’ll see what happens this week, because if Baylor struggles with a Kansas State team TCU trounced, things become harder to dissect. As it stands right now, though, the Bears should definitely have the edge based on that win in October.

I understand that Alabama’s Amari Cooper has been outstanding this year, but the Heisman talk needs to go away. Voters are not going to give a receiver the award in 2014. It would take a record-breaking season, which, by the way, Cooper does not have. His numbers are comparable to Oregon State’s Brandin Cooks last year. Cooks won the Biletnikoff as the nation’s best WR, but he wasn’t remotely in the Heisman discussion, because that would have been ridiculous. What’s the difference with Cooper? That’s right, he plays for Alabama. Sorry, but it’s not happening. That doesn’t mean Cooper isn’t great and the best receiver in the country, but being the best player on a No. 1 team that just doesn’t have any other candidates isn’t enough.

Stanzi Watch

Double Stanzi! Western Kentucky’s Brandon Doughty threw two picks to go with his absurd eight TD’s, but was nearly eclipsed by Marshall’s Rakeem Cato, who had four interceptions and seven scores. What a game! We had another nine Stanzis this week, bringing the competition more or less to a close. But wait! Some of the winners this week had won previously, so the finalists have to be updated again. In the end, no one is catching Jameis Winston, though. The FSU QB incredibly picked up his fifth Stanzi of the season, blowing away all the competition. This award might need to be renamed. Here are this week’s winners and the finalists.

J.D. Sprague, Ohio

Opponent: Miami (OH)

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska

Opponent: Iowa

Performance: Two INT, won in overtime

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky

Opponent: Marshall

Performance: Two INT, won in OT

Justin Holman, UCF

Opponent: USF

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 16

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech

Opponent: Virginia

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by four

Jameis Winston, Florida State

Opponent: Florida

Performance: Four INT, won by five

Josh Dobbs, Tennessee

Opponent: Vanderbilt

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Christian Stewart, BYU

Opponent: Cal

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

Brian Burrell, Fresno State

Opponent: Hawai’i

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 5

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 4

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Justin Holman, UCF: 3

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 2

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 2

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 2

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2

Cooper Rush, CMU: 2

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 2

Brian Burell, Fresno State: 2

J.T. Barrett, Ohio State: 2

I don’t even know what to say at this point. 2014 has brought such an embarrassment of riches. I can’t wait to see what will happen in the final week of the season. There’s potential for so much more to come.