Bowl Week the Second

After a respectable 8-3 start to the bowl season, I went on a disastrous 1-5 streak that threatened to derail my record. Now I face my most daunting challenge yet: previewing 23 games in a single week. There simply isn’t enough time to write up every game before the weekend begins, so I’ll be doing it piecemeal this week. The matchups are updated through the end of December, and I’ll follow with as many as I can to stay ahead of schedule.

As always, games are rated on a 1-5 scale of watchability and listed in Pacific time. On to Week 2!

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6)

December 27, 10:00 a.m.

Good, an easy pick to start the week off. Cincy got punked in three straight games early, then reeled off seven consecutive wins to end the year, none by fewer than a touchdown. Sure, it was in the AAC, but that’s not too shabby. Tech was an absolute mess from start to finish, peaking in a Week 2 upset at Ohio State and looking awful in a 6-3 overtime loss to Wake Forest in the penultimate week. The Hokies snuck into a bowl with a victory over rival Virginia in the finale but are terrible offensively and haven’t looked good for months. The Bearcats have a solid offensive attack and will win without issue.

Watchability: 1. VT is really bad.

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Arizona State (9-3) vs. Duke (9-3)

December 27, 11:00 a.m.

Oh, this is a fun one. Blue Devils and Sun Devils! ASU had a stronger season in a much tougher conference and should win this game. However, the Sun Devils have been erratic in the postseason the past decade, and it remains to be seen if the season-ending loss that knocked them out of the Pac-12 Championship (to rival Arizona, no less) will have a hangover effect. Duke’s only win of note came over Georgia Tech and the ACC overall is weak. Still, I think this will be a good matchup. The Blue Devils’ defense is solid and will be entertaining to watch against the high-powered ASU attack. I’ll take the Sun Devils in a shootout.

Watchability: 3. Both sides should score.

Duck Commander Independence Bowl

Miami (FL) (6-6) vs. South Carolina (6-6)

December 27, 12:30 p.m.

And here’s the winner for most ridiculous bowl name. Let us rejoice. Now, about the game… dear god. Both teams finished .500 overall, 3-5 in conference play and suffered through ignominious losing streaks. Miami notched a couple of decent wins over Cincinnati and Duke but lost its final three, while Carolina lost four straight to FBS schools in the midst of a disastrous SEC collapse. Neither team wants to be here and neither should you. I’ll take the Hurricanes, at least their defense isn’t terrible.

Watchability: 1, but only because that’s as low as I can go.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Boston College (7-5) vs. Penn State (6-6)

December 27, 1:30 p.m.

I don’t even know where to begin. Why should teams like Penn State, which won TWO Big Ten games, be allowed to play in the postseason? The Nittany Lions went 4-0 in non-conference play, with the only respectable win over UCF. They proceeded to beat Rutgers by three and Illinois by six and get embarrassed in most of the remainder of their games. Yet here they are. BC is certainly no great shakes either, but at least the Eagles have a win over USC and a couple of reasonably good losses on the resume. PSU is atrocious offensively and cannot be trusted. Take Boston College.

Watchability: 1. The defenses are both good, the offenses both bad.

National University Holiday Bowl

Nebraska (9-3) vs. USC (8-4)

December 27, 5:00 p.m.

Thank goodness for the Holiday Bowl, here to rescue us from perhaps the darkest day of bowl season. I think these teams are pretty well matched, but it’s hard to pick Nebraska because of the cloud hanging over the team. Bo Pelini was a hothead, but by all accounts his players loved him, and it’s difficult to expect them to come out and beat a squad with a superior talent level after their coach’s dismissal. On the other hand, I’ve never been sold on Steve Sarkisian, so if there’s any room to mess this up I’m sure he could do it. The Trojans need this win after blowing a golden opportunity to win the South (just knock the ball down on a Hail Mary, guys), far more than the Cornhuskers. Nebraska is entering a new era and can afford to feel things out with a new coach. SC doesn’t have that luxury. An 8-5 finish would be unacceptable for this team. I’ll take the Trojans, but as always, I don’t trust them.

Watchability: 4. Two storied programs and hint of an early hot seat for Sark?

Autozone Liberty Bowl

Texas A&M (7-5) vs. West Virginia (7-5)

December 29, 11:00 a.m.

Both these teams fooled us. A&M looked like a title contender after thrashing South Carolina on the road on opening night, given that the Gamecocks were supposed to be great. WVU lost competitive games to Alabama and Oklahoma before breaking through with an upset of undefeated Baylor to move to 6-2. Then the wheels came off. The Aggies were exposed once conference play started in earnest, as it turned out Carolina was nothing. A&M dropped five of its final seven. The Mountaineers lost heartbreakers to TCU and Kansas State (sandwiched around a blowout loss to Texas) and had to salvage a seven-win campaign of their own. I actually think WVU is the better team, but the recent news that ‘Eers quarterback Clint Trickett has to retire because of concussion concerns ruins everything. I’ll take A&M.

Watchability: 4. Have you SEEN the way these teams chuck it around?

Russell Athletic Bowl

Oklahoma (8-4) vs. Clemson (9-3)

December 29, 2:30 p.m.

On the list of “2014’s most disappointing teams”, Oklahoma is way up there. The seemingly perpetually overrated Sooners, who entered the year ranked – as usual – in the top five of most rankings, parlayed a favorable Big 12 schedule (five home games, four road) into a 5-4 league record that included three home losses, none worse than the blown 14-point lead in the final minutes of Bedlam that resulted in an overtime win for rival OSU. OU’s defense was once again far too weak for a supposed power team. Clemson, meanwhile, actually flipped its own script, shifting from an up-tempo shootout squad to a tough-minded, gritty group that finished in the top 10 in several defensive categories. I think Oklahoma is unquestionably the more talented team, but you can just never trust the Sooners. I’ll take Clemson.

Watchability: 3. The Tigers have flown under the radar but are pretty good.

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl

Arkansas (6-6) vs. Texas (6-6)

December 29, 6:00 p.m.

Ugh. Another awful mid-schedule bowl between two teams that have no business being in the postseason. To be fair, both of these teams do want to be here; Arkansas ended two years of SEC frustration late in the year and got to a much-deserved .500 record, while UT battled the growing pains of a new era by doing much the same. I like the way the Longhorns played this year and the program seems headed in the right direction, but it’s hard to deny how much the Razorbacks grew in 2014. I expect Arkansas to win this battle of old Southwest Conference rivals.

Watchability: 2. Bad teams, but should be competitive.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Notre Dame (7-5) vs. LSU (8-4)

December 30, 12:00 p.m.

Midway through the season this pairing would have looked like a horrendous mismatch in Notre Dame’s favor. Now it appears to be similarly uneven in favor of LSU. The Fighting Irish have completely collapsed down the stretch amidst a sea of turnovers and creaky defense, lowlighted by a pair of thrashings at the hands of Pac-12 schools (ASU and USC). The Tigers, meanwhile, rebounded from an ugly start to SEC play by growing up quite a lot over the final month. All of LSU’s talented underclassmen finally started to show why they were so highly touted, making this team’s future bright again. Notre Dame is more or less in the opposite position. I’d be surprised if the Tigers didn’t make short work of the scattered Irish.

Watchability: 3. There are no stars here, but it’s a couple of name brands.

Belk Bowl

Georgia (9-3) vs. Louisville (9-3)

December 30, 3:30 p.m.

This might be the first truly great matchup of the bowl season. Louisville lost three games by a combined 19 points, while Georgia should have run away with the SEC East if not for a close loss to South Carolina and curious no-show against Florida. The Cardinals dropped an early game to Virginia but only lost to Clemson and FSU (the best teams in the ACC) the rest of the way. The Bulldogs didn’t get many chances to prove themselves in their weak division but acquitted themselves well when they had the opportunity, with throttlings of Auburn and East champ Missouri. UGA also handily beat Clemson, which knocked off Louisville. The Cardinals’ calling card is their defense, but it’s honestly not much better than Georgia’s. The real difference is on offense. The Bulldogs score – a lot – and the ‘Ville does not. I’m taking Georgia.

Watchability: 3. There are no real offensive stars.

Foster Farms Bowl

Maryland (7-5) vs. Stanford (7-5)

December 30, 7:00 p.m.

Ok, Stanford. I’ll trust you one more time. The Cardinal seemingly have the edge in every facet of this contest. They run the ball better. They throw the ball better (no, really). They have the nation’s second-best scoring defense. And they finally seemed to put it all together in the last two weeks, a pair of road wins over in-state rivals Cal and UCLA, the latter knocking the Bruins out of a division title. The problem, as always, is QB play. Kevin Hogan is due for one of those 45 percent completion, multiple-pick days, and when the run game isn’t going Stanford can grind to a halt pretty quickly. However, the Terrapins aren’t really good enough to take advantage of that offensively and the Maryland D is no great shakes either. I like Stanford to come through in this one.

Watchability: 1. Do not watch this game.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

Ole Miss (9-3) vs. TCU (11-1)

December 31, 9:30 a.m.

A delightful clash of strength vs. strength, this bowl pits the top scoring defense in the country against the No. 2 scoring offense. That’s not to say the opposing offense and defense are bad – Ole Miss scored 30 points a game and TCU allowed just 20 – but the first matchup is what people are tuning in to see. After all the hand-wringing about whether the Horned Frogs should have been left out of the playoff, they’ll be the first team to get a chance to prove the committee wrong. I don’t think they’ll do it. There are a lot of bad defenses in the Big 12, and it’s no coincidence the No. 1 (Baylor), No. 2 (TCU) and No. 10 (Oklahoma) scoring offenses all came from that conference. The Rebels had some bad luck with injuries and a flop performance at LSU, but this was once one of the hottest teams in the country and I think they’ll demonstrate why that was.

Watchability: 5, kicking off a marvelous eight-game stretch in which both teams playing are ranked.

Vizio Fiesta Bowl

Boise State (11-2) vs. Arizona (10-3)

December 31, 1:00 p.m.

Here’s the playoff’s concession to the Group of Five schools… and of course, a Pac-12 team gets stuck playing the mid-major. To be fair, this is a very good matchup. Boise played Ole Miss much closer than the score suggested in their opener and hasn’t lost since September. Arizona has been on a rollercoaster of a season that ended quite poorly (see Oregon 51, Arizona 13). However, in all both teams have essentially maximized their potential in 2014. ‘Zona had no business winning the brutal South but did so anyway, even upsetting Oregon along the way. BSU won a pretty good Mountain West despite fielding a squad with some offensive limitations. Arizona is the favorite, and there’s a reason for that. The Wildcats played a much rougher schedule and handled it as well as the Broncos did theirs (they just lost their conference championship). However, against all reason, I’m leaning toward Boise State. The Pac-12 usually has one big embarrassment per bowl season and it hasn’t happened yet. I can’t shake the feeling the ‘Cats played above their talent level this year and won’t handle the sledgehammer that is RB Jay Ajayi very well.

Watchability: 4. Could be a classic shootout, though Boise State and Arizona don’t exactly excite people.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Mississippi State (10-2) vs. Georgia Tech (10-3)

December 31, 5:00 p.m.

Statistically, you can’t really make a case for Tech. MSU was better and more consistent both offensively and defensively (by a wide margin) this season. However, the way both teams ended the year changes things significantly. The Bulldogs struggled against the last two good teams they played, falling to both Alabama and Ole Miss. The Yellow Jackets clobbered Clemson, upset Georgia, then nearly beat Florida State. Along the way GT finally got the vaunted option going and started to look like one of the Paul Johnson teams of old. MSU should win this game, no doubt. I’m picking them to use the time off wisely and study up on how to contain the Yellow Jackets’ attack. But this is an intriguing matchup, especially if Tech gets rolling early. Could be fun.

Watchability: 4. A couple of good teams in this one.

Outback Bowl

Auburn (8-4) vs. Wisconsin (10-3)

January 1, 9:00 a.m.

This game changed when Auburn WR D’haquille Williams was suspended, but the Tigers still have WR Sammie Coates and the dynamic (if somewhat erratic) Nick Marshall at QB and Cameron Artis-Payne at RB. As usual, Auburn plays very little defense, though it’s fair to question the Wisconsin D’s bona fides after that 59-0 shellacking in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers do have the nation’s leading rusher in Melvin Gordon, but they’re otherwise pretty bereft of offensive talent, and the QB play has been downright atrocious. Auburn played a much tougher schedule, so even though the 8-4 finish was a bit disappointing it’s not exactly a disaster. Wisconsin has to get out early in this game and continue to run the ball, because getting behind the up-tempo Tigers will spell doom for this ground-and-pound attack. I like Auburn.

Watchability: 3. Both teams were slightly disappointing this season.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Michigan State (10-2) vs. Baylor (11-1)

January 1, 9:30 a.m.

I get to cheat a little on this one, because I picked against TCU and the Horned Frogs romped over Ole Miss. Honestly, I was planning on taking Baylor in this game anyway, so that result only bolstered my resolution. MSU has been its typical stingy self in 2014, but in the two biggest games (Oregon and Ohio State) the Spartans’ defense got worked. Bad news, State fans: Baylor’s offense is better than those teams’. In fact, the Bears led the nation in scoring. The breakneck Bear Raid usually has one or two meltdowns per year, but I think we already saw the worst of Baylor at West Virginia earlier this season. Good thought Sparty may be, I don’t see MSU being ready for firepower the likes of which they’ve never seen.

Watchability: 4. As Baylor also tends to play little defense, this could be a shootout.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

Missouri (10-3) vs. Minnesota (8-4)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

Hard to know what to expect in this one. Mizzou won 10 regular season games and won the (weak) SEC East, but didn’t really beat anyone and lost at home to Indiana. Minnesota actually played a tougher schedule and played it better, battling Ohio State and Wisconsin in close losses and upsetting Nebraska. I do think the Tigers have the greater overall athleticism, but they haven’t really shown it this year. In the end, I’m giving a slight nod to Missouri because of the closer locale and higher talent level, but it’s no sure thing. The Tigers’ offense has been pitiful at times this season (see: Georgia and Alabama losses) and the Gophers could absolutely take advantage of that weakness.

Watchability: 2. These teams shouldn’t be playing on New Years’ Day.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual

Oregon (12-1) vs. Florida State (13-0)

January 1, 2:00 p.m.

The first of the two semifinal games, and the first playoff game in major-college football history. Oregon and FSU have each battled adversity this season and constitute a worthy pairing for the Granddaddy. The Seminoles haven’t lost in 29 games and have been definition of clutch this season, escaping time and time again from seemingly insurmountable deficits. Give FSU credit; this team has never allowed an opponent to fully knock it out and has all the confidence such a long winning streak brings. Oregon has looked brilliant when completely healthy and should be more or less at that point in this game. The Ducks also boast their first Heisman winner and are ranked third in the country in offense.

To me, the game comes down to a few factors. First, Jameis Winston. How will the embattled ‘Noles QB play? His sophomore season has been rough compared to his transcendent 2013 Heisman year. However, he has played excellently in several second halves to save FSU, and he’s completely capable of putting it all together again in this game. He’ll be facing a secondary missing its best player, cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, which is a gigantic loss for UO. Second, how will Oregon’s offense respond to the athleticism of the Seminoles? This isn’t last-year’s defense, but it’s still pretty good. In the end, I think the Ducks will prevail. This is neither the best offense or defense they’ll see this season, they played a much more difficult schedule and they’ve been the better team to this point. FSU can certainly win this contest, but has been too up-and-down to accurately predict – or trust.

Watchability: 5. This is a must-see.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Alabama (12-1) vs. Ohio State (12-1)

January 1, 5:30 p.m.

An equally appealing semifinal, but one that’s far easier to predict. Ohio State has been very good this season since the Week 2 debacle against Virginia Tech, and it’s a testament to the ability of the Buckeyes’ staff that they’ve been able to cycle through three QB’s since August without skipping a beat. But this is Alabama and Nick Saban. This is a different animal, and even though the Crimson Tide may not be the terrifying juggernaut they have been in recent years, they still should be more than capable of handling a team led by a QB making his second career start.

Strange as it sounds, the difference could end up being the ‘Bama offense. For once the Tide are imposing on the other side of the ball, thanks to the schemes of (gulp) Lane Kiffin and the connection between QB Blake Sims and WR Amari Cooper. Alabama can actually put pressure on the OSU defense by scoring quickly, unusual for a Saban team. Oh, and just in case it seemed the Tide defense had disappeared, note that they still finished third in the country in scoring defense. Cardale Jones may be talented, but it’s unfathomable to me that ‘Bama wouldn’t be able to contain what is still a run-oriented attack with a full month to prepare.

Watchability: 5. Should be fun to see this play out.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Houston (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)

January 2, 9:00 a.m.

Interesting matchup here. I traditionally like Houston, especially in bowl games, and there’s no real reason to suspect yet another middling Pitt team (how many times has this team gone 6-6 in the past decade?) will rise up to win this one. But the Panthers are deceptively good on offense, averaging more than 250 yards per game on the ground. More importantly, the AAC hasn’t looked good this postseason, as Cincy and UCF (co-champions) went down. I think there’s a good chance Pitt takes this one.

Watchability: 2. The Cougs can go wild at times, but I don’t have my hopes up.

Taxslayer Bowl

Iowa (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6)

January 2, 12:20 p.m.

There’s not a matchup of two more similar teams the entire bowl season. Both the Hawkeyes and Volunteers have decent passing offenses, bad rushing attacks and slightly above-average defenses. Neither team had any good wins, but both had a couple of respectable close losses to quality foes. UT played a slightly tougher schedule, but had one more loss, so it really all evens out. I have no idea who will have the edge in this contest. My general rule of thumb in such games is to back the better QB, which is Iowa’s Jake Rudock.

Watchability: 1. Neither squad is very good.

Valero Alamo Bowl

Kansas State (9-3) vs. UCLA (9-3)

January 2, 3:45 p.m.

A couple of interesting stories in this game. K-State should have beaten Auburn in September and played competitive games against Baylor and TCU, the Big 12’s elite teams. All in all, it was another solid season for the perpetually underrated and underappreciated Wildcats. UCLA had about the most headache-inducing year of any team outside of Florida State, as the Bruins battled massive preseason (over)hype, mid-season turmoil within the program and questions about the coaching staff’s ability to still finish 9-3. However, while the Wildcats’ season was unquestionably a success, UCLA’s was very disappointing. The Bruins blew a golden opportunity to win the Pac-12 South in their finale (at home, no less) and were relegated to a (relatively) lesser bowl. Once again, KSU boasts a quality defense, despite a noticeable lack of next-level talent. UCLA, for all its talent, scores less and allows more points than the Wildcats. I expect K-State to do what it does and beat another team with superior talent.

Watchability: 4. This is one of the last good games before the national championship.

Ticketcity Cactus Bowl

Washington (8-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)

January 2, 7:15 p.m.

Oh, Washington. Thanks to a 13-game schedule, the Huskies finished with a nice-looking eight wins, but all five games against ranked foes turned out badly for UW. OSU performed much the same, playing six ranked opponents and losing to five (though the win was over Oklahoma, who fell out of the rankings after that game). I would have probably taken the Cowboys simply because of how bland the Huskies’ offense was this year, but that was before the recent ugly situation with OSU’s Tyreek Hill, hero of the Bedlam game and one of the best pure athletes in the country. Hill is gone from the program, and with the quality of defense Washington has I would hope they could figure out a way to win this game. I’ll trust the Huskies to get this done.

Watchability: 2. Nothing special.

Birmingham Bowl

East Carolina (8-4) v. Florida (6-5)

January 3, 9:00 a.m.

Despite an underwhelming campaign that got the coach fired, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Florida win this game. The Gators still play some nice D and have a great counter to ECU’s big-play passing in the form of all-world CB Vernon Hargreaves. The issue, as always is UF’s offense, which was again a hot mess in 2014. If the Pirates get up early, I’m not confident the Gators can mount more than a single TD drive to get back in the game. However, if Florida can grind the game to a halt and make it a slugfest, things will get interesting in a hurry. ECU hasn’t fared well in those situations this season. I’ll still take the Pirates, but it feels shaky.

Watchability: 2. Shane Carden is a QB worth watching.

GoDaddy Bowl

Toledo (8-4) vs. Arkansas State (7-5)

January 4, 6:00 p.m.

Arkansas State has been pretty good in bowls the past few seasons, which is the main reason I’m taking the Red Wolves. Toledo had a marginally better season in a marginally better conference, but that’s not enough to move the needle. Most importantly, this contest matches two Stanzi finalists in the Rockets’ Logan Woodside and Arky State’s Fredi Knighten, who combined for six this season. What a treat! Otherwise, the two squads are remarkably similar, with mediocre defenses and balanced, fairly high-scoring offenses. I like Arkansas State, but it could go either way.

Watchability: 3. The potential for slapstick QB play is high.

And that will do it! Bowl Week 2 is over, and all that’s left is the inaugural College Football Playoff Championship. That deserves its own post, which is coming in the next week. Happy New Year.