Wave I of bowl season

To start with, congratulations are in order for one Robert Griffin III, the first Heisman winner from Baylor and one of the very few players in D-1 football who can accurately be called a “student-athlete.” I think Stanford’s Andrew Luck is still the best player in the country, but Griffin had a better single season this year, so he deserved to win just as much as Luck. The unfortunately reality for both schools is that once these program-changing quarterbacks leave for the NFL it’s likely their teams will slide back into obscurity. However, the fact that Luck and Griffin were able to elevate their moribund programs the way they did makes their accomplishments all the more impressive.

Now, for the bowls. In the past I’ve taken different tacks on the college postseason, poking fun at the awful game names and the unworthiness of teams involved. This year I’ve decided to gloss over the bowl titles (which are largely unchanged from past seasons anyway) and just give the most honest preview I can of how each game will unfold. I do research the participants, but each contest’s section will differ in detail based on my familiarity with the teams (though I’m sadly sure the 10 minutes of research I might do for a squad will far surpass the effort of most poll voters).

Because of time constraints, I’ll preview the New Year’s bowls next week, when I’ve had a chance to think more about them. In my analysis I’ll rate each game on its watchability on a scale of one to five, five being most watchable. I’m also abbreviating the bowl names because it’s really annoying to have to type them out. So here we go, in chronological order (all times Pacific, because why would you need any other?):

New Mexico – Dec. 17, 11:00 a.m.

Temple vs. Wyoming

I’m something of a Wyoming masochist, so I’m not entirely unfamiliar with the Cowboys. Long a laughingstock, Wyoming finished a very respectable third in the Mountain West this season behind TCU and Boise State (a league, it should be noted, much tougher than Temple’s MAC). However, there’s no question that the best player in this game belongs to the Owls. Running back Bernard Pierce is a bit injury-prone, but he’s a magnificent workhorse, averaging over 1,000 yards a season the past three years. He’s also scored 51 rushing touchdowns in his career, 25 of which came this season. But the kicker is Temple’s D – third nationally in scoring defense, including seven games allowing 10 points or fewer. The Owls should win.

Watchability: Three. Pierce is fun to watch and Wyoming’s resurgence is a decent story, but this isn’t anything special.

Famous Idaho Potato – Dec. 17, 2:30 p.m.

Ohio vs. Utah State

Ohio is good-but-not-great in almost every important statistical category, but as their 9-4 record demonstrates, that’s not really a bad thing. Generally, the Bobcats have been able to generate offense when they’ve had to and have gotten most of the defensive stops they’ve needed, with the exception of that dreadful second half against Northern Illinois in the MAC championship. Utah State is more of a typical mid-major (good offense, bad defense); the Aggies have a nice ground game, run a little option, and catch you on play action. Like Ohio, they finished second in their conference, though that means even less in the WAC than it does in the MAC (you know Louisiana Tech won the WAC this year, right?). I think Ohio is a better team, but a couple of factors come into play in this matchup. There’s the Bobcats’ disappointment at their MAC title game collapse. There’s also the fact that the Aggies should have started the year 4-0 (remember all those unlucky early-season losses?) and their subsequent 5-0 finish. USU could have been as good as 11-1 this year. Because of that, I’ll take the Aggies.

Watchability: Two. There’s potential for a shootout, but a lack of star power or great team play pretty much kills this game.

New Orleans – Dec. 17, 6:00 p.m.

San Diego State vs. Louisiana Lafayette

The Aztecs have had to rebuild somewhat following their abandonment from Brady Hoke. It’s been more obvious defensively, but SDSU’s offense has also failed to rise above the middle of the pack in 2011. None of the team’s four losses are bad, but none of their eight wins are anything to get excited about either. Enter Louisiana Lafayette, a similarly unexciting squad who also didn’t beat anyone of consequence. I don’t love SDSU, but it would take a lot for me to pick a Sun Belt team in any game. That conference is horrendous.

Watchability: One. Stay away.

St. Petersburg – Dec. 20, 5:00 p.m.

Florida International vs. Marshall

This one seems pretty cut-and-dry to me. Despite a better record, FIU only played two BCS-conference teams, beating Louisville and losing to Duke. Marshall went 6-6, but the Thundering Herd’s schedule was a veritable minefield for a mid-major. Look at the losses: West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Houston, Tulsa – good teams all. Offensively both the Herd and Golden Panthers are mediocre, while FIU holds a significant edge defensively. Once again, though, I question the opponents against whom those numbers were attained. Marshall should win.

Watchability: One. Nothing to see here, people, move along.

Poinsettia – Dec. 21, 5:00 p.m.

TCU vs. Louisiana Tech

The Horned Frogs’ two losses came in a wild shootout with Baylor and an overtime game with SMU marred by questionable officiating. LaTech started slow, but won their last seven en route to the WAC title. TCU also won their final seven games, but the circumstances were a little different. The Bulldogs have had a nice run, but six of their season-ending victories were against conference opponents and the seventh was over awful Ole Miss. It’s hard for me to imagine a way LTU can win this game.

Watchability: Three. I don’t think it’ll be close, but did you know TCU has a top-10 scoring offense?

Vegas – Dec. 22, 5:00 p.m.

Arizona State vs. Boise State

This is easily the saddest of the 2011 bowl matchups. A rudderless, coach-less, undisciplined .500 team against a legitimate BCS bowl team and national title contender. I don’t want to waste time of this game. Maybe Vontaze Burfict and the ASU defense can summon their old spirit and rise up against the Broncos, but I really doubt it. BSU is going to score, and score a lot.

Watchability: Two, but only because it’s one last chance to witness Kellen Moore’s mastery.

Hawaii – Dec. 24, 5:00 p.m.

Nevada vs. Southern Miss

The Wolf Pack were on a nice little roll during the second half of the season, but then they lost to the last two good teams they played. UNR did lose a couple of close games and still nearly won the WAC, and that Pistol rushing attack is humming along as ever. But… Southern Miss is really solid. Outside of an early loss to Marshall and a flukey late loss to UAB, the Golden Eagles have been just that: golden. With an outstanding offense and an opportunistic D, USM very nearly jumped into a BCS bowl this year. Nevada is young and still rebuilding from the dream season that was 2010. Even with the loss of their coach, Southern Miss wins.

Watchability: Three. USM QB Austin Davis can be very good, and the true Pistol is always worth a look.

Independence – Dec. 26, 2:00 p.m.

Missouri vs. North Carolina

The Tigers and Tar Heels have identical records but their seasons tell different stories. UNC started 3-0 with ACC title aspirations but won only three league games. 7-5 should rightfully have been considered a disappointment. Mizzou didn’t accrue a lot of great wins, but the team faced a gauntlet in the Big 12 and traveled to Arizona State to play the Sun Devils when they were at their best. I don’t really trust Tar Heels QB Bryn Renner, and even though the Tigers’ James Franklin had his ups and downs, he’s put together a solid season with 33 combined TD’s. Make no mistake, both teams are capable of winning this game, but I’ll go with Missouri.

Watchability: Four. The outcome is a bit of a toss-up, there will probably be turnovers, what’s not to like?

Little Caesars – Dec. 27, 1:30 p.m.

Western Michigan vs. Purdue

Western Michigan looks a lot like the Joe Tiller Purdue teams of old – lots of receivers, spread the ball around, don’t bother running the ball, etc. Of course, Tiller’s no longer at the helm for the Boilermakers, so this game won’t be the mirror image contest it could have been. Neither of these teams exactly lit it up in 2011, though both have some nice playmakers. WMU’s Jordan White led the nation in catches and yards and finished second in touchdown receptions, while Purdue’s Ralph Bolden is a dynamic dual threat out of the backfield. However, Bolden will miss this game with yet another knee injury, so I think the Broncos will win.

Watchability: Three. Purdue’s QB situation has become intriguing the second half of the year and White is worthy of your time. Probably not a great game otherwise.

Belk – Dec. 27, 5:00 p.m.

Louisville vs. North Carolina State

It’s true that Louisville very nearly won the Big East, but that’s much more a reflection of the league’s mediocrity than any strengths of the Cardinals. The boys from the ‘Ville went 2-3 in nonconference play, losing to two mid-majors at home. NCSU went .500 in ACC play but finished strong with five wins in their last seven games. Let’s be honest: I don’t love the Wolfpack and they’re probably not that great. Nowadays, though, I tend to treat the Big East like the non-AQ conference it should be, which means I have to search for reasons why any of its teams will win a game against a real BCS school. I don’t see one here. Cardinals freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater had, by my estimation, a great year, but even he doesn’t give me enough confidence to pick Louisville.

Watchability: One. Bridgewater may be a rising star, but there’s nothing of value here.

Military – Dec. 28, 1:30 p.m.

Toledo vs. Air Force

Ah, what a clash of styles this will be! The explosive, up-tempo Rockets against the option-heavy Falcons. Air Force has been known in the past for their great ground game and that continued in 2011 as the academy finished second in the country in rushing. Unfortunately, the Falcons’ other calling card – solid defense – was no where to be found this season, as the team gave up more than 27 points per game. I really like Toledo, who would have gone 12-1 this year if not for a slew of bad luck: a fourth-and-goal incompletion at Ohio State, an erroneously upheld PAT at Toledo and a wild shootout loss to Northern Illinois. Even the 25-point loss to Boise State is misleading; the Rockets controlled the game in the first half and dropped a pair of wide-open touchdown passes. In any other season I’d quickly side with Air Force’s unconventional style and tough defense, but that’s just not what we’ve seen out of this team this year. Toledo will win.

Watchability: Four. Both teams will score, and they’ll do it in very different ways. The Rockets have a ton of fun weapons, headlined by receiver Eric Page.

Holiday – Dec. 28, 5:00 p.m.

California vs. Texas

Let’s just start by establishing that Texas is a bad team. The bizarre media fascination with the Longhorns reached impressive heights (or more accurately, lows) in 2011, but against Baylor Robert Griffin finally proved what I’ve been saying for months – UT isn’t good. The team finished sixth in the ten-team Big 12 and went 4-5 in conference, losing to each of the five teams ahead of them and beating the four below them. Overall, the Longhorns beat one team with a winning record (BYU), and they needed a second-half comeback to win 17-16. That’s not to say that Cal isn’t very similar; on the contrary, the Golden Bears also beat just one team with a winning record (Utah) and finished a disappointing 7-5 as well. Both teams averaged about the same amount of yards and points, with Texas leaning more on the run and Cal more on the pass. Both defenses also gave up nearly the exact same number of points a game. On paper, I like Cal. The Bears have far superior players at the skill positions, in particular RB Isi Sofele and WR Keenan Allen. But, but, but… I can’t pick Cal. QB Zach Maynard is the biggest problem, but his play has really been just a microcosm of the team’s identity this season: erratic. You never know what you’re going to get with Cal. With Texas, you can at least count on a certain level of mediocrity.

Watchability: Four. This could be a classic or a disaster, but either way there will be excitement. It’s the Holiday Bowl!

Champs Sports – Dec. 29, 2:30 p.m.

Florida State vs. Notre Dame

This is a tough one. Both Notre Dame and FSU had good seasons that could be been special if a few more breaks had gone their way. Both teams are top-25 in terms of roster talent, and neither was blown out in any game this year. The Irish and Seminoles also both feature a pair of QB’s with game experience. Offensively Notre Dame is a little more explosive, while FSU has the advantage defensively. That probably has as much to do with the coaches’ respective philosophies as anything else. It’s hard to evaluate Notre Dame’s independent schedule, though I’d wager it’s about as difficult as the ACC slate FSU managed. I’d like to pick the Seminoles, but I don’t think this team has a lot of skill talent outside of E.J. Manuel. The receiving corps of the Irish is scary, even against the FSU defense. I’ll take Notre Dame.

Watchability: Four. A couple of storied programs, to be sure, but this one just promises to be a good game.

Alamo – Dec. 29, 6:00 p.m.

Washington vs. Baylor

The defenses? Awful. The offenses? Good. Quite good. Especially Baylor’s. There’s a chance UW could win this thing in a shootout, but I just don’t see it happening unless Baylor starts turning it over. The Huskies already got ripped apart by Taylor Martinez, so Lord knows what they’ll do against RG3. Washington’s hope lies with the Bears’ D, which is even worse than their own (35 points per game? Yikes). But if you look at the way the two teams ended the year, this is a no-brainer. UW went 2-4 in the second half of the season, low-lighted by a three-game skid to start November. Baylor won their final five, including an upset of Oklahoma. Baylor wins this one too.

Watchability: Four. There should be a whole lot of scoring in this game.

Armed Forces – Dec. 30, 9:00 a.m.

BYU vs. Tulsa

I’ve been suspicious of BYU’s credentials all season. It all started back in September, when the Cougars were thrashed at home by Utah, 54-10. We knew back then what we know now – Utah isn’t really that good. But BYU rolled to a 9-3 record, so you’d be forgiven for thinking that this team had kind of rounded into form as the year went along. But look at the schedule. Whoa. Now that’s the kind of garbage it usually takes an SEC scheduler to dream up. Who’s the best win? Hawai’i? Utah State? Ugh. Tulsa, on the other hand, rebounded from their 1-3 start (against three top 10 teams) to win seven straight, with their only other blemish the season-ending loss to Houston. G.J. Kinne is an outstanding passer who has kept the air attack humming, but the Golden Hurricanes’ ground game isn’t anything to scoff at either, with two rushers over 800 yards. I don’t think BYU stands a chance.

Watchability: Three. Good offenses, but let’s not act like this is anything less than a seven-on-seven drill.

Pinstripe – Dec. 30, 12:20 p.m.

Rutgers vs. Iowa State

I’ve watched ISU’s pluckiness with a smile the past few seasons. The Cyclones always seem to clip someone, whether it be rival Iowa (several times) or Oklahoma State this year. Realistically, though, this team is fortunate to be in a bowl. It took a couple of big upsets for ISU to get to 6-6 and the team won just three Big 12 games. Rutgers was the very definition of a middle of the road team in 2011. They didn’t notch any truly impressive wins outside of a 20-3 crushing of Cincinnati, but there was also only one bad loss (by 18 to UConn). The one constant for the Scarlet Knights was their defense, which ranked 12^th in country. I have a feeling ISU will be just happy to be here, whereas Rutgers has been to a couple of bowls recently and should handle their business.

Watchability: Two. Bad offenses and unexciting styles combine for boring bowl games.

Music City – Dec. 30, 3:40 p.m.

Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest

Ohhhhh. Why is this game being played? I’ll say this for Wake Forest: at least they earned their way here with a 5-3 conference record. MSU did nothing to justify a bowl bid, going 2-6 in conference play but taking the coward’s route and getting to .500 thanks to a quartet of nonleague patsies (and no, the Bulldogs don’t get credit for scheduling WAC champion Louisiana Tech because they clearly thought LTU was going to be bad as well). The combined wins of the five FBS teams MSU beat? 20. They AVERAGED 4-8 records between them. And yet here the Bulldogs are, in a bowl game. There are few things more painful than watching MSU’s high-school caliber – both in production and sophistication – offense. Their defense is quite good, though, which is why I fear MSU may win this game. Because that’s what bad SEC teams do, just to make everyone else furious.

Watchability: One. Stay away, for your own sanity.

Insight – Dec. 30, 7:00 p.m.

Iowa vs. Oklahoma

I’m still not sure how Iowa managed to become bowl eligible. I remember the Penn State loss and the Michigan State loss. I do remember the Hawkeyes upsetting Michigan. But I also remember this team losing to Minnesota, which you’d think would be some kind of automatic disqualification. But here we are at the end of the year and Iowa has seven wins. Go figure. They’ve got no chance in this game, though, unless the Sooners completely mail it in. OU has one of the nation’s best offenses and best QB’s, and in two of their three losses they still scored 38 points. It’s possible the Hawkeyes could run the ball and keep the Sooners off the field, but Iowa just isn’t nearly dynamic enough offensively to have sustained success against OU. Oklahoma should win.

Watchability: Two. Oklahoma’s missing some guys and Iowa’s skill players are more consistent than explosive.

Car Care – Dec. 31, 9:00 a.m.

Texas A&M vs. Northwestern

Another one of those “Why is this game happening?” bowls. A&M and Northwestern both went .500 and finished with five league losses, though their seasons were entirely different tales of woe. A&M became known for their spectacular collapses, five in all, where the Aggies lost late leads and turned a season of great promise into a year of despair that ended with a fired coach. Northwestern got off to a rocky start against some tough opponents without star QB Dan Persa and fell to 2-5, only to win four straight to grab bowl eligibility from the jaws of a potential 3-9 season. Despite their inspiring finish, though, the Wildcats didn’t exactly face a second-half gauntlet. Upsetting Nebraska was huge, but the other three victories came against Rice, Indiana and Minnesota. A&M had a very trying year, but this is still a talented squad, far more so than Northwestern. I expect them to go out motivated against the Wildcats.

Watchability: Two. I like Persa a lot and it will be interesting to see how the Aggies play sans Mike Sherman, but otherwise this shouldn’t be close.

Sun – Dec. 31, 11:00 a.m.

Georgia Tech vs. Utah

Everyone knows I love Georgia Tech, but it’s hard to know what to expect from them in bowl games. More than any other offense, the option can be “solved” (relatively speaking) with extra time off. Utah has a nice defense that finished in the nation’s top 20, and I’m sure the Utes will be working hard to find a way to stop Tevin Washington and company. I do worry about the Utes’ middling offense, but we’ve seen that the team can put drives together when they’re on the same page. On the other side, GT’s offense can be both explosive and dreadful on any given day. When it wasn’t working this year, the option attack looked awful. Both of these teams have been inconsistent this season, but I’ll go with Utah and their defense over whatever these frustrating offenses put up.

Watchability: Three. Both teams are decent but not great. They might both need to carry the conference flag as well, given how poorly I expect the ACC and Pac-12 to do this bowl season.

Liberty – Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.

Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt

I think this game needs some higher stakes, so here it is: if 9-3 Big East co-champion Cincinnati can’t beat 6-6 Vanderbilt, the Big East automatically gets its AQ status revoked. Virtually the only thing anyone knows about Vandy is that they’ve got Aaron Rodgers’ little brother on the team. Cincinnati just finished first in their conference for the third time in four years, boasts playmakers at every position and should be angry at being snubbed by the BCS rankings (even if they did get it right). I don’t want to waste time on this game. This better be Bearcats all the way.

Watchability: Three. Zach Collaros, Isaiah Pead and Anthony McClung form as solid a 1-2-3 combo as you’ll find in the NCAA ranks.

Fight Hunger – Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.

Illinois vs. UCLA

There are a lot of bad bowls this year. This is the very worst. Who would you rather be, the team on a six-game losing streak or the team who needed a waiver to go bowling at 6-7 and just fired their coach? Oh wait, Illinois fired Ron Zook too. Ugh. There is absolutely nothing redeeming about this contest, which represents the worst of the bowl expansion madness. Neither the Bruins nor the Illini deserve to be playing in the postseason. For what it’s worth, I guess I’ll take UCLA. They have a good running game?

Watchability: One, but only because I previously made 1-5 the standard. This game rates about a negative-50.

Chick-fil-A – Dec. 31, 4:30 p.m.

Virginia vs. Auburn

At the beginning of the season I would have gladly picked Auburn, even though the Tigers were fortunate to not start the year out 0-3. Gus Malzahn remains one of college football preeminent offensive innovators and he earned his paycheck this season by getting these QB’s to put up any points at all. Auburn’s five losses all came to ranked teams, so there is reason for optimism given the schedule. However, outside of the win over South Carolina (not even that impressive to begin with) the Tigers didn’t beat anyone. Virginia’s slate was much more manageable and the Cavaliers came within one game of playing for the ACC title. Sadly, that one game turned out to be a 38-0 beating from rival Virginia Tech in the finale. Even with my concerns about Virginia, though, I almost picked them in this game because of the injuries and suspensions Auburn is dealing with. In the end I decided to go with the Tigers, but I don’t trust either team.

Watchability: Two. Malzahn’s offense, nothing else.

It appears the Big East has succumbed to “the madness,” but I’m sure even more insanity will have forsaken college football by next week, so I’ll address expansion and the most recent hirings and firings in my next post along with the remainder of the bowls.

Get ready for 9-6, Part II

It’s a sad commentary on the voting system and the BCS in general that Oklahoma State hammered a top-15 team in the final week of the season and still got shafted in favor of Alabama. Based on the history of the Bedlam series I had very little faith in the Cowboys, but they completely proved me wrong with that not-even-as-close-as-the-score blowout over the Sooners. I mean, OSU didn’t even score in the fourth quarter. They could have put up 65 if they’d tried. Maybe they should have; Oklahoma has shown in the past that running up the score can get you respect.

Based on the teams’ losses, Alabama is a better team. But by any other measure OSU wins easily. Strength of schedule, better wins, you name it. The truth is that if Alabama played in any conference but the SEC we wouldn’t be having this discussion. Oklahoma State would have been ranked higher if not for the SEC “Get out of jail free” card the Crimson Tide played. What makes the whole affair so disgusting is that the voters swallowed it without question.

Now the problem is the one we nearly had in 2006 with Ohio State and Michigan. I wrote about this before and Grantland followed my lead about a month later: what if Alabama wins? LSU winning is the only way the BCS gets out of this mess. So Bama wins the rematch, and they’re National Champions? Despite losing at home to LSU in the regular season? How is that fair to LSU? There’s no logic applied here.

In other news, the Friday madness continued as Northern Illinois came back from a 20-point halftime deficit to beat Ohio. Oregon held off a sort-of challenge from UCLA to win the Pac-12, Houston blew it big-time (and cost the Conference USA a whole lot of money), Clemson rose from the dead and crushed Virginia Tech AGAIN – seriously, how did that happen? – and, oh yeah, LSU actually played. It is extraordinarily frustrating for me as a fan of the game of football to watch a team with such mind-numbingly terrible quarterbacking win games, but the Tigers’ defense is just really good. What are you gonna do?

And then, in the nightcap, Michigan State and Wisconsin played their little hearts out again, only to see the game end on just a horrible penalty. Not that the penalty called was wrong, because you have to throw the flag on a play like that. But it was awful for when it occurred, robbing a great contest of the great finish it deserved. Consequently, because the BCS is insane, Michigan got a Sugar Bowl berth while MSU, who beat the Wolverines, got relegated to the Outback Bowl. Awesome.

Top 25

1) LSU

Georgia could have led by as many as 24 at halftime if not for some untimely drops and a punt return touchdown that wasn’t. Even if they had, LSU still would have scored enough to beat the Bulldogs. The Tigers offense is, to put it politely, anemic, but it’s hard to imagine the team ever being in a position where they need to score so badly that it will matter.

2) Oklahoma State

I expected OSU to lose to Oklahoma. Not based on this year, because the Cowboys had clearly been more consistent, but because of how Bedlam always seems to unfold. Well, this was one season when the Pokes’ hard work finally paid off. It certainly helped that OU’s offense was missing some playmakers, yet even with them I still think the Sooners would have gotten thrashed.

3) Alabama

So you got your rematch. It’s highly doubtful that Bama deserved this shot, but now that they’ve got it they’d better make the most of it. The worst thing we could see would be another field goal slopfest that emphasizes everything we already know: the SEC has great defenses and horrible offenses. Please put some effort into an offensive game plan this time around.

4) Oregon

The UCLA win was sloppy, even if the Ducks weren’t exactly motivated to play a bad team. Without question, if the defense plays in the Rose Bowl they way it did the past few weeks, the Ducks are in trouble. Fortunately there’s time to correct that, and the fact remains that Oregon has the best offense (statistics be damned) in the nation.

5) Stanford

Outside of Michigan (gag), the weekend’s biggest winners were the Cardinal, who were in danger of being jumped by Virginia Tech if the Hokies won. Instead, Stanford got to keep their number four ranking and finagled their way into a second BCS bowl in two years. Remember when this team was 1-11? That was just five years ago. What a turnaround.

6) USC

I noted with some amusement that USC is ranked fifth (ahead of Oregon, behind Stanford) in the AP Poll. By what measurement does that make sense? Oregon IS the best team in the Pac-12 and Stanford beat USC. The Trojans played a great final month of football, but that doesn’t excuse six weeks of mediocre play. The same can be said of Matt Barkley’s Heisman “snub.”

7) Boise State

Once again the BCS door slammed shut on Boise, grabbing inferior teams like Virginia Tech and Michigan rather than letting the Broncos embarrass another member of the power elite. It’s hard to understand how one missed field goal in one game two years running can be the difference between a BCS bowl and a have-not destination.

8) Arkansas

But wait! The BCS is totally fair – Arkansas didn’t get in either! Because we all know that if there wasn’t a specific rule against it, the Razorbacks would have gotten the same treatment as BSU, right? It’s not like the Sugar Bowl wouldn’t have loved to take another SEC team out of its own backyard. At least Michigan will get the boos they deserve.

9) Wisconsin

The Badgers chose the hard way to win the inaugural Big Ten title game, but they did it. Now, having redeemed themselves against Michigan State, they’ll look to redeem themselves in the Rose Bowl. The Wisconsin defense will have their hands full with the Oregon offense, but I’m not exactly confident the Ducks can stop the Badgers either.

10) Michigan State

Where else can you slot this team, who played two wild shootouts with Wisconsin that were both decided in the final minute? I’ve said all year I think Wisconsin is the more talented team, but MSU played them to a virtual draw. It’s so frustrating that this program’s success isn’t being awarded with the BCS bowls it deserves.

11) Baylor

So much for all that nonsense about Texas’ elite defense. As he is wont to do, RG3 made ‘em look silly. The rest of his Baylor teammates chipped in as well to double up the Longhorns, 48-24. Cue the stereotypical Southern ladies: “Two wins in a row for Baylor over Texas? Well, I do declare!” In all seriousness, though, Robert Griffin may have just sealed the Heisman with that performance.

12) Oklahoma

Despite that throttling at the hands of Okie State, I can’t rank the Sooners any lower. One reason is that OU has to be higher than Kansas State, a team they blew out. Another reason is that while some teams have better records, I know I wouldn’t pick them against Oklahoma. It took a couple of big upsets for this team to fall to 9-3, which is pretty impressive.

13) South Carolina

The win over Clemson looks a lot better now, huh? I still don’t trust this team and remain baffled at Steve Spurrier’s continued failure to create any semblance of an offense in Columbia. With that said, there are some nice players on the Gamecocks’ defense and they did reach 10 wins (though missing the best teams in the West helped).

14) Kansas State

Bravo, Wildcats. 10 wins, with this schedule and this roster? Bill Snyder needs to be a Coach of the Year candidate. However… I fear for K-State in their Cotton Bowl matchup with Arkansas. Look at KSU’s season, and you’ll see that the biggest margin of victory over any competent team was seven points. This team averages 33 points a game and gives up nearly 28. That’s a recipe for disaster against a talented opponent.

15) Clemson

Welcome back, I guess? Clemson’s season has officially gone nuts. It makes no sense that after their putrid 1-3 stretch, the Tigers could just reach back into the bag and pull out another beatdown of Virginia Tech. Yet that’s exactly what they did, looking every bit the part of the 8-0 BCS title contenders they were in late October. You can’t explain that.

16) TCU

The Horned Frogs lost two games in 2011: a two-point thriller the opening week in Waco and in overtime to SMU. They beat Boise State, a team that should have been playing in a BCS bowl in their own right. They’ve also been one of the most consistent teams in the country the past five years. But it’s Michigan who will be playing in the Sugar Bowl, not TCU. How disgusting.

17) Virginia Tech

And playing the part of the only team even more unworthy of their BCS bid than Michigan… Look, the Hokies have a great record. Both their losses came to a good Clemson team. I’d even pick them to beat the Wolverines. But we’re talking about deserving here, and VT didn’t beat a single ranked team. Everyone talked before the season about how the schedule was loaded with creampuffs. Looks like it paid off.

18) Michigan

For all I say about Michigan’s inflated reputation, there are a lot of things to like about this team. They beat the squads who were worse than them (suffering letdowns is a big pitfall, after all) and one who was probably better (Nebraska), their defense improved markedly in 2011 and the program looked rejuvenated under Brady Hoke. They just didn’t deserve the Sugar Bowl.

19) Houston

Oh, Houston. I so wanted the Cougars to get that win, not only for their own once-proud fans but for the Conference USA as a whole. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. Case Keenum wasn’t bad, but on a day the defense got shredded he would have needed to be incredible to keep UH in it. As a final insult, Keenum was not invited to the Heisman ceremony. Not a great way to end the year.

20) Nebraska

I don’t like the prospect of Nebraska’s one-dimensional offense versus that South Carolina D. Sure, the Gamecocks have problems of their own when it comes to moving the ball, but we’ve seen the results in past bowls games when SEC defenses get a chance to study up on bad QB’s like Taylor Martinez.

21) Georgia

The Bulldogs certainly had their chances Saturday (I don’t know how LSU got out of that first half down by less than 17) and they just blew it. Now it’s on to the Outback Bowl, where they probably feel pretty good about their chances considering what happened the last time an SEC team played Michigan State.

22) Northern Illinois

What an escape. NIU was seemingly about to blow it in the MAC Championship again when the Huskies got some divine intervention in the form of a bad Ohio play call and subsequent interception. I’m glad that the better team won, but that was as nerve-wracking as it could have possibly been.

23) Florida State

FSU finished 8-4, but they easily could have gone 11-1. Jimbo Fisher has done a nice job here since taking over and probably had as good a team this year as he did in 2010. Last year’s Seminoles just caught a few more breaks. I expect this program to continue to rise back to national prominence. Now if they could just figure out that pesky Virginia Tech problem.

24) Southern Miss

I had the Golden Eagles ranked a few weeks back until they were upset by UAB. As it turned out, that loss probably kept USM out of a BCS game. That’s a shame, because the nation got to see what a quality team Larry Fedora has in that drubbing of Houston. The defensive numbers for this squad are incredible – eight INT’s for touchdowns? Are you serious?

25) West Virginia

Thankfully, sense finally prevailed in the Big East. WVU got the BCS nod due to the tiebreaker in the polls and all is right. Until the conference gets split apart next season, that is. Gulp. If there is a Big East team capable of winning a BCS bowl, though, it’s the Mountaineers. They just have to avoid the mistakes that plagued them in their two league losses.

Pac-12 Thoughts

It was far from a great game Friday night in Eugene, so let’s not dwell on the flop that was the league’s first championship game. Instead, let’s focus on the future of the conference, which has had people buzzing for more than a week. Mike Leach is now the head coach at Washington State, a very exciting prospect. Ever since Leach was run out at Texas Tech by a shady consortium of stingy boosters, the James family and ESPN, I’ve wondered where he might coach next. Arizona was rumored to be a possible destination after the early-season firing of Mike Stoops, but the Wildcats found their own man in Rich Rodriguez. The oddball Leach is a funny fit at Washington State, but there’s potential for a great partnership there.

But what’s more intriguing is how these minds will affect the Pac-12 conference. Regardless of what anyone thinks about the circumstances surrounding their respective firings, Leach and Rodriguez are brilliant offensive innovators. Together with Chip Kelly, they’ll form a hugely influential wing of coaches who have been instrumental in bringing the spread offense to the forefront in college football and increasingly in the NFL. The Pac-12 has long been known for offense, and with these hires Wazzu and Arizona announced that they will be taking the fight to their conference rivals. I have very good feelings about the West Coast landing these guys. Depending on whom UCLA and Arizona State find, we may have some fierce competition coming in a few seasons once the new systems have been fully employed at these schools.

Heisman Watch

Should be at the ceremony:

Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Richardson has carried the load for an offense that has few playmakers besides himself. However, he’s also played behind what is probably the best line in the nation, which limits my enthusiasm for his candidacy. He’s the most NFL-ready back out there, but he’s not Heisman-worthy. I was annoyed when Mark Ingram won this thing two years ago, and I’ll be similarly frustrated if another Alabama player steals the award by virtue of playing on the nation’s best(?) team.

Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin

Ball’s candidacy is based on stats, because he plays in a very good offense led by a borderline-Heisman player at QB as well. His outrageous TD numbers don’t quite match up to his yards, though (typically, it’s a 1:100 ratio), which shows that he gets all the carries on the goal line and somewhat inflates his stock. His line is just as good as Richardson’s, which springs him for big gains more often than not. He’s good, but not good enough to win.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Any long shot Keenum had of winning the award was dashed when the Cougars lost, which instead cost him an invite completely. It shouldn’t have; Keenum is the rare “system” QB who makes the system better and his numbers from this season alone (he led the nation in passing and offense, for goodness’ sake) should have afforded him some respect. There’s no doubt Houston would have been far worse off without Keenum at the helm.

Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU

I’m fine with Mathieu being honored as a finalist; he’s a great playmaker. But winning? Absolutely not. I’ve watched a lot of LSU this season, and one thing I’ve noticed is how often Mathieu lines up in the slot and/or blitzes. That’s fine from a general defensive standpoint, but the best corner on your defense doesn’t do that. That’s why Morris Claiborne is busing locking people down every play. Mathieu plays in a great defense that allows him the luxury of being able to run around and cause havoc. He shouldn’t be rewarded for having great players around him.

Deserve to actually win:

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck has a good line, yes, but Oregon proved that it’s not an elite one. His running back(s) are solid, but please. None of them are special in a game-changing way. The receivers? Pitiful. Among the worst in the conference. His tight ends are great, but having a bunch of tight ends really isn’t as big a luxury as you might think when there’s no one on the outside to scare people. Luck’s run his offense beautifully and navigated the Cardinal to another one-loss season. Without him this team has four or five losses, minimum.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Griffin is the only candidate I’d be remotely comfortable with winning the award if Luck does not. RG3 has been magnificent this year, passing for just fewer than 4,000 yards and 36 TD’s and adding more than 600 and nine on the ground. He’s got more to work with than Luck, to be sure, but watching Griffin play shows how even his stats don’t tell the whole story. It’s the classic distinction between a “running quarterback” and a “quarterback who can run” that makes him a program changer, just like Luck.

Random Thoughts and Observations

As Urban Meyer was hired at Ohio State, I wondered again why it is that people trust men like this. Not unlike Nick Saban when he was in the NFL, Meyer flatly denied that a deal was in place or that any contact had even occurred. In time, of course, both men were proved to have been lying to our faces and expecting everyone to accept it. It’s amazing how people can fool themselves into supporting guys like Saban and Meyer, who have never given anyone any reason to believe a word they say. Why would a player respect as an authority figure a man who will say anything to avoid the truth? How can fans fool themselves into thinking that these coaches care about the program when they’ve shown time and time again to care only about themselves? And what makes school administrators, presidents or athletic directors think they can trust a person who has a history of publicly lying? It demonstrates, I suppose, just how desperate for wins most programs are. And that’s a very disturbing thing.

After most of the conference realignment hubbub had died down, guess who jumped back in the news with another wacky idea? That’s right, the frightening monstrosity that was once the Big East! As I write this, reports say that as early as tomorrow (Wednesday) morning the league will add Boise State, San Diego State, SMU, UCF and Houston. Uh, what? SMU, UCF, Houston – those are understandable. UCF has long coveted a spot alongside hated South Florida in a BCS conference, while SMU and Houston are former BCS-level heavyweights who want a return to the glory days. But Boise and SDSU should be ashamed. I know the allure of a BCS conference is intoxicating, but the schools are selling themselves out to make this leap. There’s not even any guarantee the Big East will continue to enjoy BCS status past 2013: the conference comes up woefully short in the automatic-qualifier metrics the BCS uses to determine which leagues get bids. Even by adding Boise State (the obvious reason the Big East wants them), it’s hard to imagine that the average ranking of the conference’s remaining members would be enough to qualify (especially with the loss of West Virginia). If it goes through, this move would epitomize the ridiculousness of realignment – based entirely on the well-being of football, with no regard for tradition (allegedly an important emphasis for the BCS folks), logistics (some sweet traveling costs there) or long-term planning. Just jump in, the BCS will make it better. I hope you all go 0-12.

I’ll be back before bowl season to do my previews and predictions, and hopefully to laugh about the stupid Big East deal that didn’t go through.

And here we sit... at the end of it all

On to the conference championships we go. There wasn’t quite the same level of excitement this Saturday as there was the previous week, when four top-ten teams fell, but we did get some answers about which teams are legitimate heavyweights heading into the postseason.

Clemson? Out. The no-show at North Carolina State was one thing, the blowout against crippled rival South Carolina was another entirely. Unacceptable. Arkansas? Also gone after ending the LSU game on the wrong side of a 41-3 run. The Hogs had no business in the top five.

Houston, though, showed what they were made of in a runaway victory at Tulsa. That was impressive, as was Virginia Tech’s 38-0 humiliation of rival Virginia. Another ACC title looks to be in order for the Hokies.

Eliminated from BCS contention were Notre Dame (hanging on to slim hopes before getting manhandled by Stanford) and probably Michigan. The Wolverines technically still have a shot, but they absolutely don’t deserve one. For some reason ESPN and the school have been touting UM as a possible BCS team for a couple of weeks, which is utterly laughable if you take five seconds to look at their schedule and see that they beat one team in their conference with a winning record.

The new BCS standings also feature a twist in Stanford’s number four ranking. If it holds through next week, this would make the Cardinal an automatic-qualifying team, just like last season. That would be a big blow to Michigan. Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State would also be killer, because the Big 12 would then be assured two spots like the Pac-12.

The BCS bowls are going to be a little strange this season because in all likelihood both of the SEC’s teams will be in the same game. That will alter the traditional matchups (except the Rose Bowl) and could leave room for a team like Michigan, Baylor or Kansas State to sneak in. This weekend will complete the story.

Top 25

1) LSU

Georgia is ranked 14^th and all, so… no one cares. I doubt anyone outside of Athens thinks it’s remotely possible LSU loses this game. After a slow start against Arkansas last week, the Tigers calmly cut their 12^th consecutive opponent down to size. They’ll do the same to the Bulldogs in the SEC championship.

2) Alabama

I’m not happy about it but this is the way it has to go. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this week, I’ll vouch for the Cowboys to leapfrog the Crimson Tide. That’s the only way Alabama doesn’t get their precious rematch. They don’t deserve it, but they’re going to get it anyway because…

3) Oklahoma State

OSU will lose to Oklahoma. I still have the Pokes third here because they should move into the title game with a Bedlam win. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. More on that game in my conference championship discussion. OSU is quite good, but I’m not confident they can take that last step.

4) Oregon

The Ducks disposed of Oregon State in their usual fashion, then got the good fortune of a date with UCLA. I don’t want to jinx it, but let’s be real: a loss in the Pac-12 championship at home to a coach-less, .500 Bruins team would be the most embarrassing failure in school history. There’s a reason Oregon is a 30-point favorite.

5) Stanford

That was a nice win over Notre Dame. The 14-point margin didn’t tell the whole story, as Andrew Luck went off and the Cardinal brutally pounded the Fighting Irish into submission. Now this team has to hope and pray that they can retain that coveted fourth spot in the BCS.

6) Oklahoma

Survived the Iowa State test (hey, OSU couldn’t do it) to set up a Bedlam Game for the ages. This is the first time in several years that I consider the two teams to be on a level playing field and the game is in Stillwater. To make matters worse, OU will be without all-world receiver Ryan Boyles and young running back Dominique Whaley.

7) USC

At this point in the season my rankings start to value recent performance over the full-year resume. That’s good for USC, who looked dreadful early on but found their stride in the last month, culminating in a season-ending stomping of rival UCLA. 50-0? Are you kidding? If Matt Barkley stays… well, he won’t. But if he does…

8) Boise State

Wyoming’s not bad this year (see 7-4 record, third in the Mountain West), but Boise’s 36-14 win over the Cowboys was still somewhat uninspiring. While the Broncos’ defense has been outstanding – other than a couple of deep balls against TCU – the fact remains that Kellen Moore and Co. just haven’t been quite the world-beaters we’re used to seeing.

9) Virginia Tech

The 38-0 pantsing of rival Virginia was the best performance of the year by the Hokies. I’ve been reluctant to believe in this team all season, but I’m starting to feel very good about their chances in the ACC championship. A BCS bowl win is perhaps asking too much, though this week will be a good indication of where VT will finish.

10) Arkansas

There’s no plausible reason for Arkansas to stay near the top five of the polls. Supporters will cry that both the Razorbacks’ losses came to the two best teams, the correct rebuttal to which is, “Yes, and they were blown out in both games.” This team has “good” losses. What they don’t have is good wins. If they’d played Georgia they would have lost to the Bulldogs too.

11) Houston

I like Houston, but I can only honestly rank them ahead of teams who don’t have the ability to stop them. You need a good offense-defense combo to beat the Cougars; enough offense to keep up and enough defense to keep them off the field. I think every team in my top 10 could do that.

12) Michigan State

Big game for the Spartans, who haven’t been to the Rose Bowl in more than 20 years. MSU has been on a pretty nice roll in November, stifling opponents with solid defense and putting up touchdowns at steady pace. I have my doubts about this team beating Wisconsin a second time, so we’ll see who’s made better adjustments come Saturday night.

13) Wisconsin

Wisconsin has been both very hot and very cold this year. At times they’ve looked like champions, such as when hammered Nebraska in October and blasted Penn State last week. They’ve also looked frighteningly pedestrian at times, though, losing to 6-6 Ohio State and needing some horrendous officiating to survive Illinois. The former team will win the Big 10 title game easily, while the latter will bow out quietly.

14) Georgia

You can give UGA some credit for beating Georgia Tech, but as I said last week, the Yellow Jackets are so erratic you never know what you’ll get from them. Now it’s on to the conference championship, where the Bulldogs will run into the LSU buzzsaw. Quarterback Aaron Murray is pretty good, but he’ll need to be better than good for Georgia to have a chance this Saturday.

15) Kansas State

Considering that Kansas State lacks the kind of talent of teams above them on this list, the fact that the Wildcats are going for their tenth win against Iowa State this week is amazing. I still don’t think K-State is more than an above-average team who caught some breaks and I don’t like their chances in their bowl, but you can really appreciate the fight this team has shown this year.

16) South Carolina

Back-to-back 10-win seasons aren’t too shabby considering the mayhem this program has had to put up with this year. Young Connor Shaw looked like the answer at QB against Clemson. Marcus Lattimore will be back next season as well, so the Gamecocks, who just weeks ago looked lost, now seem to have a solid foundation in place for 2012.

17) Baylor

The Bears can’t play a lick of defense, but boy are they fun to watch. Robert Griffin is reportedly feeling no concussion symptoms before the Texas game, which will pit perhaps the nation’s most exciting player against the Big 12’s best (statistically, anyway) defense. If Baylor can get this thing into a shootout, they should be home free.

18) TCU

The season-ending matchup with 2-9 UNLV is kind of a downer, but I’m sure TCU isn’t upset at having already locked up the MWC. With their position as mid-major royalty firmly established, the Horned Frogs will now look to the future and the (finally) welcoming arms of the Big 12. If they build off of the second half of 2011 they could be contenders in their new league right from the start.

19) Michigan

Good job on finally beating Ohio State. But you have to realize that in order to do so, you needed to face the worst Buckeyes team in over a decade… and you still only squeaked out a six-point win. The good news is that Brady Hoke seems to be the right guy to lead Michigan back into the national spotlight.

20) Nebraska

The 20-7 win over Iowa didn’t exactly blow anyone away, but it did keep alive the Cornhuskers’ hopes for a third straight 10-win season. The great bowl tie-ins of the Big 10 will also ensure that Nebraska gets good exposure this postseason. I’m sure it hurts that this team didn’t make the title game their first year in the conference, but overall it was still a successful campaign.

21) Northern Illinois

Now riding a seven-game winning streak, the Huskies return to the MAC title game. Last year NIU dropped the ball here as favorites. Can they rebound from that frustrating episode? The opponent is another 9-3 team in Ohio, who is quite capable of pulling the upset. This is a hard one to figure, as is the Huskies continued absence from the polls.

22) Florida State

If not for a one-point, last-second loss to Virginia, FSU would also have a seven-game win streak heading into the postseason. The Seminoles’ late-September slide also cost them a division title, but the team has clearly improved over the course of the year. They seem to be just a step or two away from really announcing their return to national prominence.

23) Clemson

On the other side of the ACC coin we have Clemson. The 8-0 start, complete with a couple of magical comebacks, seemed to kill the “Clemson” tag this program has carried for too long. And then came the end of October. The Tigers went 1-3 after their dazzling start, with the lone win coming on a field goal as time expired. Now here comes an angry Virginia Tech squad eager to avenge their only loss of the season. Uh-oh.

24) West Virginia

Even if West Virginia doesn’t win the Big East they’re still the best team in the league (again). I’m sure the conference scheduled this Thursday’s contest with South Florida in the hope that the two teams would be playing for the title. Unfortunately, USF suffered a stunning fall from grace, going 1-5 in Big East play. WVU can still win the championship, but the Mountaineers require help that they shouldn’t have needed.

25) Texas

The Longhorns got a gutty win over rival A&M, so I’ll play along and toss them the final spot. It appears that UT has settled on a QB of the future (surprise! His name is McCoy) and they have a nice defense too. To me, the question of whether Mack Brown is any good is still the bigger problem hovering over this program. Time (and the last two games of this season) will tell.

Pac-12 Thoughts

We got exactly what we expected out of the Civil War, and more or less what we expected from the Apple Cup. Everywhere else was a bit of a crapshoot, as Utah blew a gigantic opportunity to win the South by losing to Colorado, Arizona State continued their downward spiral against Cal and UCLA was essentially wiped off the face of the earth by USC.

The real drama was gone midday Friday, when Utah’s loss automatically sent the Bruins north to either Eugene or Palo Alto. Oregon then took care of business, setting up perhaps the worst conference championship game since the idea was conceived: 10-2, 8-1 Oregon versus 6-6, 5-4 UCLA. The Bruins have been blown out of every game this year against a halfway decent squad and next Friday doesn’t look to change anything. UCLA seems to see the writing on the wall as well, as they’ve already fired Rick Neuheisel. Gulp. So much for a festive championship atmosphere.

The frustrating thing isn’t how the Bruins wormed their way into this game, it’s how ASU and Utah blew their chances to make it. The Sun Devils were clearly the best team in the South through October and they simply suffered an epic collapse. Utah started league play off terribly but rebounded and put themselves in position to go, only to drop the ball at the finish line. Very disappointing for the first season of the new conference.

I'll cover the coaching changes next week when everything is confirmed.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

He’s been the clear leader throughout the season and I didn’t want to waste time stating the obvious. The Notre Dame game demonstrated once again why he is so good: 20-30, four touchdowns, nearly perfect under duress.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Scored three TD’s in the first half against Texas Tech before leaving with concussion symptoms. I’m not sure if he’s considered NFL-worthy yet, but he’s easily one of the best players at his position in the college game.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Delivered in a big way against a good Tulsa team. Obviously he has the outrageous numbers, but there is something different about Keenum than other spread “system” QB’s in the past.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In this post I’ve decided to use this space to talk about the conference championship games. Normally I don’t go over matchups in detail or make predictions, but with so few games to focus on I can do that this week. In chronological order:

MAC: 

Ohio and Northern Illinois are both pretty good teams. The MAC isn’t given much credit for producing solid mid-major squads, but the conference has pulled off some nice upsets in the past (one that immediately comes to mind is Central Michigan’s fantastic win over Michigan State in 2009). NIU is the sexy pick in this game, coming in averaging just fewer than 40 points per contest, 11^th in the country. The Huskies are also eighth in the country in rushing. However, Ohio’s defense is significantly better: the Bobcats give up just 22 points a game to NIU’s 32. Their offense is also more balanced than that of the Huskies. Throw in the fact that the MAC championship has a crazy history, and this matchup becomes a serious question mark. In the end, I’ll take NIU, but I won’t be surprised if Ohio makes it close or wins

Pac-12: 

This looks like a terrible game. This isn’t because Oregon is just that good; on the contrary, the Ducks have proved to be eminently stoppable when they’re out of rhythm this season. The problem is that UCLA is just that bad. At 6-6 the Bruins are already the worst team to ever play in a conference championship game, but they could have easily lost two or three other games as well. While there’s always a danger that UO could come out flat and let UCLA hang around, I just can’t predict anything but an Oregon win.

Conference USA: 

Do my eyes deceive me? Two ranked teams in the C-USA final? This is something for the league to be really proud of. Houston has made their mark on offense, but their defense has been solid throughout the season. Last week’s shutdown of the high-powered Tulsa attack was very impressive. Southern Miss has been known for defense, but in the last three games before last Saturday’s Memphis win the Golden Eagles had given up about 30 points each time out. I hope I don’t regret finally siding with them, but how can the Cougars not have won you over at this point? They get to host the title game, it’ll be Case Keenum’s last game at home… this just seems like too much in Houston’s favor.

SEC: 

There’s not a whole lot more I can say. Georgia is a nice team who has strung together a good streak against average competition. LSU has faced some of the best teams in the country and, with a few exceptions, dominated them all. Worst of all for the Tigers’ opponents, their offense finally seems to have come around to the point that it can be counted as an asset and not a liability. When you have a defense this special, that’s all you need. Every bit of evidence we’ve seen thus far indicates that LSU will win and make a statement doing so.

Big 12: 

It’s not actually a championship game, but because the Bedlam Game will be the de facto championship it only makes sense to preview it. I like Oklahoma State’s offense more than I ever have, which is really saying something if you’ve followed OSU. Oklahoma could have boasted similar numbers if the Sooners hadn’t lost some of their key playmakers. There have been some good shootouts in this game in the past, mainly because both offenses have been way ahead of the defenses. I’m sure we’ll see a good deal of scoring again this year, but I have questions about how each team matches up with the other defensively. OU’s defense is better, there’s no doubt about that. The Cowboys have improved on that side of the ball, but they can still be had at times. If OSU was ever to break through and win this game to take the conference title, this would be the year they would do it. But I’ve seen this story too many times: great OSU offense, lots of hype, K.O.-ed against Oklahoma. The history of this series – severely one-sided in favor of the Sooners – is too great for me to ignore. Even in Stillwater, I’ll take OU.

ACC: 

I thought last week I was going to be on the cutting edge with this pick, but after watching Clemson get blown out by South Carolina I think everyone is thinking the same thing: the Tigers don’t stand a chance. I don’t know what went wrong midway through the same for Clemson, but it’s been a shocking turnaround. Since clobbering Virginia Tech the first time around (in Blacksburg, no less), the team has just looked lost. The Hokies, on the other hand, seemed to accept that they had been soundly beaten and regrouped. They turned back every opponent they faced from then on (remember, this is the ACC, so take that with a grain of salt) and finished the year 11-1. It’s hard to imagine Clemson suddenly summoning the spirit that powered them so impressively in the first month of the year and winning this game. I’ll go with the more consistent team in Tech.

Big 10: 

The inaugural league title game in the Midwest will likely be the only conference championship with a lot of drama. Obviously, when these teams first played they were about as close as two squads could possibly be. Michigan State got the miracle win on the last play and Wisconsin was left to wonder what might have been. Now we appropriately get a rematch of the most – and ONLY – BCS-worthy teams in the Big 10. MSU has had another great year with what are, in my mind, lesser players than those of a power school like Wisconsin. The Badgers are only a couple of Hail Mary passes from being in the BCS championship, but they’re also fortunate to have even made it to 10 wins. A lot rides on Spartans QB Kirk Cousins. I think Michigan State’s running game is very overrated, so he’ll need to make plays. In reality, though, the game will be decided by which Wisconsin team shows up. At their best, the Badgers are simply better. The problem is that we haven’t seen that version of Wisconsin all that consistently this season. I’m going to be optimistic and say that “good” Wisconsin wins on Saturday.

Thanksgiving week: Time to feel the hate

First of all, let me say, “I told you so.” No good games last weekend, indeed! When was the last time the second, fourth, fifth and seventh-ranked teams all lost in one weekend? I accept your apology, ESPN and CBS. Now, about that national championship picture…

We’ve reached that unappealing place where there is no other option but to (likely) match up a pair of teams in the BCS title game who are not only from the same conference, but who have already played this season. It’s a nightmarish scenario that makes zero sense from a logical standpoint within the BCS system, but after the potential Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC champions all played themselves out of the picture, there’s nobody left. The Big 10 already reached that point earlier in the year, nobody takes the Big East seriously and Boise State blew their shot.

Really, that’s one of the bigger stories of this season: the Broncos finally would have gotten their shot if only they’d beaten TCU. In terms of what that might have meant for the BCS, this season fell short of greatness. The argument about whether a mid-major making it to the championship would be good or bad for the BCS is interesting. On one hand, it’s possible that BCS-conference teams would be furious at a non-automatic qualifier school getting the nod because of the weak schedule. On the other hand, there’s the thought that Boise State in the title game would vindicate the system, a sort of, “See? We told you, anyone can make it, so it’s fair!”

Personally, I’d have loved seeing BSU beat a traditional powerhouse because I think it would send a shock to the system. Anything that gets us closer to a playoff is good in my mind. It’s also important to note that I would have no qualms about an Alabama-LSU rematch if it came about through a playoff. Many champions in team sports don’t win their division or conference. Look at FCS football, which holds a 20-team playoff (including play-in round) composed of 10 conference champions and 10 at-large schools. There’s a 50 percent chance the eventual champ won’t have even won their own conference, but it doesn’t matter, because they’ll have played their way there. That isn’t the case with the BCS, where luck plays as much a part as on-field success.

Now, it’s possible that Alabama could beat Auburn, Arkansas could beat LSU and the top of the SEC West would be tied with three teams at 7-1. Here’s what I have to say about Arkansas’ chances this weekend: 3, 4, 5. In four (yes, FOUR) road games, that’s the Razorbacks’ margin of victory in three wins this season (they were also blown out at Alabama). The opponents in those games? 5-6 Vanderbilt, 6-5 Texas A&M and 2-9 Ole Miss, respectively. Saturday’s game against LSU? In Baton Rouge. Prepare for a whipping.

Top 25

1) LSU

Seriously, how are we even having this discussion any more? LSU is 11-0, they’ve taken on a difficult schedule (two ranked nonconference foes) and the Tigers have beaten 10 FBS teams with a combined 61-48 record. For comparison, Alabama’s nine wins are 51-48 (padded by 10-1 Arkansas and 9-2 Penn State), while Arkansas’ nine wins are 41-55. The chain of mediocrity and overratedness stops with LSU. This team is really, really good.

2) Alabama

I do respect Alabama’s defense, but I have legitimate questions about the teams the Crimson Tide played to get that gaudy 8.4-points-per-game average. Look at these numbers: of the FBS teams ‘Bama has played, Arkansas (18^th) is the only offense ranked in the top 70; the rest of the opponents are a stunning 71, 87, 89, 92, 97, 100, 101, 114 and 119. Remember, there are only 120 FBS teams.

3) Oklahoma State

Should OSU drop lower? Yes, but several other teams lost. I put Oklahoma State at third for now because there are several things that work in their favor. First, Ames is a hard place to play. Second, the Cowboys lost in double-overtime, which isn’t exactly shameful. And most importantly, there is no way I would pick Arkansas over this team.

4) Arkansas

Arkansas is usually my favorite SEC team, so I take no joy in saying this. But the truth is that the Razorbacks aren’t good. I don’t mean they’re “not elite, just decent,” I mean they’re a seven-win team masquerading as a title contender. Arkansas’ best win was over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks had already lost Stephen Garcia and Marcus Lattimore. After that, the only decent win was over Auburn, who is fortunate to have a winning record.

5) Oregon

The Ducks should have dropped to about ninth or so, but they were the beneficiaries of the Oklahoma and Clemson losses. I would have even moved UO down past Stanford, but then I remembered that, unlike the voters, I’m not a complete moron. Just two weeks ago, the college football world established that A) Standford hadn’t played anyone and B) Oregon was way, way better. Now, because the Ducks are 9-2 to the Cardinal’s clearly far superior 10-1, we’re supposed to forget that? What?

6) Stanford

I think the best way to describe Stanford is to say that they’re good in certain situations. If the opposition doesn’t have a good defense or fast skill players on offense, the Cardinal can roll. Outside of those parameters, though, this is a very beatable team. I love their hard-nosed mentality, their commitment to a complex offensive scheme and their willingness to break people down bit by bit for four quarters. I really don’t love their athletes.

7) Oklahoma

Who knew that losing Broyles and Whaley would actually have a greater impact on the defense? I was all set to pick OU in the Bedlam game after Oklahoma State went down Friday night (another fantastic mid-week thriller, by the way) and then the Sooners went and dropped one to Baylor. Now, I love me some RG3, but the Bears have no business beating Oklahoma. Ever.

8) Boise State

It’s going to be interesting to see what the program does after Kellen Moore leaves. Certainly it will be far more interesting than the next two weeks, when the Broncos face Wyoming and New Mexico. I don’t see a second massive upset this season for BSU, so we’ll probably be looking at an 11-1 non-conference champion Boise squad stuck in some awful bowl while a couple of 7-5 AQ teams play on New Year’s Day. Isn’t the BCS grand?

9) USC

In the fourth quarter against Oregon, the Trojans looked like the same cowed former conquerors they’d been for two years. For the first two and a half quarters, they looked like the team that won or shared every Pac-10 title from 2002 to 2008. While it’s premature to declare them “back” – especially with continuing scholarship reductions – there’s no doubt that last week’s win was the best pick-me-up SC could have asked for.

10) Virginia Tech

You may have noticed that I didn’t move VT at all despite four losses ahead of them. That’s because I have very little faith in this team. The win over Georgia Tech was nice, but until they beat Clemson in a rematch I still can’t consider a team out of a league this average to be anything more than decent.

11) Houston

Give the Cougars credit for tossing 37 on SMU; the Mustangs’ defense is pretty good this season. Still, Houston isn’t going to move up unless they do something really impressive. Blowing out Tulsa would win me over some more, but that will be a tall order against an offense that’s every bit as potent as Houston’s own.

12) Michigan State

I can’t really work out the Big 10 this year. Every time it seems as if we know a team’s identity, they surprise us (in both good and bad ways). While the record isn’t as good, I think this season’s MSU team is probably better at this point than last year’s squad. The Spartans have taken advantage of Michigan’s down period to build up their roster nicely and it’s paying off.

13) Kansas State

K-State is another team who really deserved to move down after a lackluster win over Texas. The Wildcats are 2011’s scrappy team. We get one every year; a team who’s not really great but hangs around and wins games they shouldn’t. Staring at a 10-2 finish, KSU should be proud of what they’ve done this year. Only losing to the Oklahoma schools is impressive.

14) Georgia

Oh, Georgia. You’ve beaten just two teams with winning records (and barely that, at 7-4 and 6-5), lost to the two best teams you played, and missed all three of the West’s good teams. Honestly, I’m not even sure the Bulldogs will beat rival Georgia Tech on Saturday. The game is in Atlanta and the option has caused trouble for this team in the past.

15) Wisconsin

The Badgers were very fortunate to beat Illinois. However, they got it done and now face Penn State for the right to play Michigan State again. Earlier in the season I would have considered it laughable that PSU would even have a chance in this game, but the way Wisconsin has played the past month it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Consistency has been such an issue for this team of late.

16) TCU

Nothing changed my opinion of TCU from last week to this week, but seeing fading South Carolina barely put away Florida on Saturday convinced me that the Horned Frogs could beat the Gamecocks. It’s funny how, after a tumultuous start to the season and questions about their future home, TCU has found both a prestigious conference to play in and several young players to build around. Questions answered.

17) Clemson

I know Clemson thought they had nothing to play for… but then came Saturday night. What a horrible feeling this team must have had, knowing that they could have been an inch from the BCS championship had they just come out motivated against North Carolina State. The Wolfpack played well, but I’ll never believe the Tigers just didn’t care about the outcome.

18) South Carolina

As the somewhat close victory over The Citadel showed, South Carolina is just worn down. Toothless offensively without their two best players and beat up from a season’s worth of games, the Gamecocks were mercifully knocked out of the East race when Georgia beat Kentucky. Playing Clemson isn’t exactly the kind of season-ending matchup this team needed, but it’s better than having to face LSU.

19) Michigan

Wow, where did that come from? Michigan’s track record this year never indicated that the Wolverines would be capable of a beatdown like the one they delivered to Nebraska. Though they played a coward’s schedule (eight home, four away, copyright SEC), the fact is Big Blue is one Ohio State victory from a potential BCS at-large bid. I’d be stunned if this team got one, but you can’t discount the draw of Michigan.

20) Baylor

Welcome back, Baylor! Early in the season the Bears flashed potential, but after multiple losses and a couple of shaky wins the last two weeks I’d written them off. Lesson learned: don’t bet against RG3. Baylor did need some luck to knock off Oklahoma (did you SEE this play?!), but the way the Sooners have played this year you can’t just say this was a fluke.

21) Nebraska

Just when you thought Nebraska had things figured out… hard to pinpoint the most disappointing part of that four-touchdown shellacking the Cornhuskers got from Michigan, but high on the list would be the defense. I thought Bo Pelini coached this team? You expect hot-and-cold play from Taylor Martinez, not the Blackshirts. Nebraska has to face the reality that they’ve lost two of three and could have gone down to Penn State as well.

22) Tulsa

I said months ago that Tulsa was going to be good. Here we are at the end of the season, and the Golden Hurricane have ripped off seven straight. They’re undefeated in league play and host 11-0 Houston this week with the West title on the line. I have to say, I think Tulsa gets it done. They’ve played a tougher schedule than the Cougars and should be ready.

23) Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets have become the quintessential “good bad team.” In their last five games, the Ramblin’ Wreck lost close to Virginia (enjoying a renaissance under Mike London), lost to Miami (FL), upset then-undefeated Clemson, lost to Virginia Tech and narrowly beat Duke. In short, eh? I wouldn’t be surprised if Tech upsets Georgia this week, nor would I be surprised if they got blown out. It’s been that kind of a year.

24) Northern Illinois

Another close escape for NIU, who have turned shootout victories into an art this season. Though the MAC isn’t exactly tough competition, the Huskies have done everything in their power this season to get ranked. As I mentioned last week, the offense is extraordinary, and I’m very interested to see who this team draws in their bowl.

25) Notre Dame

Even with the win over Boston College I nearly dropped Notre Dame from my poll. BC is really bad and should have been an easy out for the Irish, who have won eight games but played it close with the better teams on their schedule. ND does have the weapons to give Stanford some trouble this week, but I’d still be surprised if they pulled off an upset this big.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Oh, Arizona State. What in the world is wrong with you? You had the South in hand a month ago and now you need major help to get in. The Sun Devils are on the opposite track of Utah, who after losing their first four Pac-12 games has won four straight. Key in those wins was a victory over current division leader UCLA (USC being ineligible). That means there are three teams who can still win the South going into the regular season’s final week. From a competitive standpoint, this is exactly what the conference wanted. From a realistic standpoint, with the best team ineligible, it’s a nightmare.

As Utah, ASU and UCLA have all played each other, we’re left with a very interesting mess. Utah beat (blew out, actually) UCLA, UCLA squeaked by ASU, and ASU crushed Utah. Right now the Utes and Sun Devils are both 4-4, while the Bruins are 5-3. However, UCLA also has by far the toughest opponent this Saturday in a road game at USC. Arizona State plays Cal and Utah plays Colorado, both at home, both on Friday. The following is what needs to happen for each team to clinch the South:

Utah: beat Colorado, ASU and UCLA both lose.

ASU: beat Cal, UCLA loses, Utah result irrelevant (Sun Devils hold tiebreaker).

UCLA: beat USC and clinch automatically, lose to USC and Utah and ASU both lose.

Although UCLA’s route is the most clear-cut, it’s the most difficult. I find it hard to believe this UCLA squad can beat USC, which means the Bruins will be 5-4 in conference play come Saturday. It seems safe to assume Utah will beat Colorado, which would move the Utes to 5-4 as well and eliminate UCLA. That means it all comes down to ASU, who would win the division with a win or hand it to Utah with a loss. I don’t know which Sun Devils team will show up Friday, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Thankfully, the North is much simpler. If Oregon wins the Civil War the Ducks win the North. If they lose, Stanford wins it (either North winner will host the championship). Though Oregon State showed some great character in beating back Washington last week, I’d be pretty shocked if the Beavers won this game. That means the inaugural conference title game will probably be Utah/ASU at Oregon. A month ago I would have said the Sun Devils had the South in the bag, but now I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on that Cal game. It would be pretty amazing if Utah came back from the dead (an 0-4 conference start) to win the division.

Heisman Watch

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Griffin is back to lead the non-Andrew Luck category. All he did last week was pass for a school-record 479 yards and four TD’s and lead the Bears in rushing with 72 yards on the ground.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Let us be thankful for rivalries, which continue this week after the nice appetizer we got last Saturday (once again, I believe it was me who predicted that there would be some great games on tap). In terms of pure hatred, though, this week’s slate far surpasses its predecessor. There will be entire generations’ worth of pent-up rage released, starting on Thanksgiving, when Texas and Texas A&M play what will be their final game in the foreseeable future. That one’s gonna be delightful. But it only gets better from there.

The Battle for the Golden Boot (Arkansas-LSU). The Backyard Brawl (West Virginia-Pitt). Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate (Georgia-Georgia Tech). The Iron Bowl (Alabama-Auburn). The Commonwealth Cup (Virginia-Virginia Tech). The Civil War (Oregon-Oregon State). The Border War (Missouri-Kansas). The Egg Bowl (Ole Miss- Mississippi State). The Apple Cup (Washington-Washington State). The Battle for L.A. (UCLA-USC).

That’s before you get to all the rivalries without official names, some of which rank among college football’s most heated, such as Ohio State-Michigan, Florida-Florida State, Clemson-South Carolina, Colorado State-Air Force and Boston College-Miami (FL). And hey, the renewed Colorado-Utah series starts up again this week with a new name: Rumble in the Rockies. What more could you possibly ask for? This, my friends, will be a weekend to remember.