Get ready for 9-6, Part II

It’s a sad commentary on the voting system and the BCS in general that Oklahoma State hammered a top-15 team in the final week of the season and still got shafted in favor of Alabama. Based on the history of the Bedlam series I had very little faith in the Cowboys, but they completely proved me wrong with that not-even-as-close-as-the-score blowout over the Sooners. I mean, OSU didn’t even score in the fourth quarter. They could have put up 65 if they’d tried. Maybe they should have; Oklahoma has shown in the past that running up the score can get you respect.

Based on the teams’ losses, Alabama is a better team. But by any other measure OSU wins easily. Strength of schedule, better wins, you name it. The truth is that if Alabama played in any conference but the SEC we wouldn’t be having this discussion. Oklahoma State would have been ranked higher if not for the SEC “Get out of jail free” card the Crimson Tide played. What makes the whole affair so disgusting is that the voters swallowed it without question.

Now the problem is the one we nearly had in 2006 with Ohio State and Michigan. I wrote about this before and Grantland followed my lead about a month later: what if Alabama wins? LSU winning is the only way the BCS gets out of this mess. So Bama wins the rematch, and they’re National Champions? Despite losing at home to LSU in the regular season? How is that fair to LSU? There’s no logic applied here.

In other news, the Friday madness continued as Northern Illinois came back from a 20-point halftime deficit to beat Ohio. Oregon held off a sort-of challenge from UCLA to win the Pac-12, Houston blew it big-time (and cost the Conference USA a whole lot of money), Clemson rose from the dead and crushed Virginia Tech AGAIN – seriously, how did that happen? – and, oh yeah, LSU actually played. It is extraordinarily frustrating for me as a fan of the game of football to watch a team with such mind-numbingly terrible quarterbacking win games, but the Tigers’ defense is just really good. What are you gonna do?

And then, in the nightcap, Michigan State and Wisconsin played their little hearts out again, only to see the game end on just a horrible penalty. Not that the penalty called was wrong, because you have to throw the flag on a play like that. But it was awful for when it occurred, robbing a great contest of the great finish it deserved. Consequently, because the BCS is insane, Michigan got a Sugar Bowl berth while MSU, who beat the Wolverines, got relegated to the Outback Bowl. Awesome.

Top 25

1) LSU

Georgia could have led by as many as 24 at halftime if not for some untimely drops and a punt return touchdown that wasn’t. Even if they had, LSU still would have scored enough to beat the Bulldogs. The Tigers offense is, to put it politely, anemic, but it’s hard to imagine the team ever being in a position where they need to score so badly that it will matter.

2) Oklahoma State

I expected OSU to lose to Oklahoma. Not based on this year, because the Cowboys had clearly been more consistent, but because of how Bedlam always seems to unfold. Well, this was one season when the Pokes’ hard work finally paid off. It certainly helped that OU’s offense was missing some playmakers, yet even with them I still think the Sooners would have gotten thrashed.

3) Alabama

So you got your rematch. It’s highly doubtful that Bama deserved this shot, but now that they’ve got it they’d better make the most of it. The worst thing we could see would be another field goal slopfest that emphasizes everything we already know: the SEC has great defenses and horrible offenses. Please put some effort into an offensive game plan this time around.

4) Oregon

The UCLA win was sloppy, even if the Ducks weren’t exactly motivated to play a bad team. Without question, if the defense plays in the Rose Bowl they way it did the past few weeks, the Ducks are in trouble. Fortunately there’s time to correct that, and the fact remains that Oregon has the best offense (statistics be damned) in the nation.

5) Stanford

Outside of Michigan (gag), the weekend’s biggest winners were the Cardinal, who were in danger of being jumped by Virginia Tech if the Hokies won. Instead, Stanford got to keep their number four ranking and finagled their way into a second BCS bowl in two years. Remember when this team was 1-11? That was just five years ago. What a turnaround.

6) USC

I noted with some amusement that USC is ranked fifth (ahead of Oregon, behind Stanford) in the AP Poll. By what measurement does that make sense? Oregon IS the best team in the Pac-12 and Stanford beat USC. The Trojans played a great final month of football, but that doesn’t excuse six weeks of mediocre play. The same can be said of Matt Barkley’s Heisman “snub.”

7) Boise State

Once again the BCS door slammed shut on Boise, grabbing inferior teams like Virginia Tech and Michigan rather than letting the Broncos embarrass another member of the power elite. It’s hard to understand how one missed field goal in one game two years running can be the difference between a BCS bowl and a have-not destination.

8) Arkansas

But wait! The BCS is totally fair – Arkansas didn’t get in either! Because we all know that if there wasn’t a specific rule against it, the Razorbacks would have gotten the same treatment as BSU, right? It’s not like the Sugar Bowl wouldn’t have loved to take another SEC team out of its own backyard. At least Michigan will get the boos they deserve.

9) Wisconsin

The Badgers chose the hard way to win the inaugural Big Ten title game, but they did it. Now, having redeemed themselves against Michigan State, they’ll look to redeem themselves in the Rose Bowl. The Wisconsin defense will have their hands full with the Oregon offense, but I’m not exactly confident the Ducks can stop the Badgers either.

10) Michigan State

Where else can you slot this team, who played two wild shootouts with Wisconsin that were both decided in the final minute? I’ve said all year I think Wisconsin is the more talented team, but MSU played them to a virtual draw. It’s so frustrating that this program’s success isn’t being awarded with the BCS bowls it deserves.

11) Baylor

So much for all that nonsense about Texas’ elite defense. As he is wont to do, RG3 made ‘em look silly. The rest of his Baylor teammates chipped in as well to double up the Longhorns, 48-24. Cue the stereotypical Southern ladies: “Two wins in a row for Baylor over Texas? Well, I do declare!” In all seriousness, though, Robert Griffin may have just sealed the Heisman with that performance.

12) Oklahoma

Despite that throttling at the hands of Okie State, I can’t rank the Sooners any lower. One reason is that OU has to be higher than Kansas State, a team they blew out. Another reason is that while some teams have better records, I know I wouldn’t pick them against Oklahoma. It took a couple of big upsets for this team to fall to 9-3, which is pretty impressive.

13) South Carolina

The win over Clemson looks a lot better now, huh? I still don’t trust this team and remain baffled at Steve Spurrier’s continued failure to create any semblance of an offense in Columbia. With that said, there are some nice players on the Gamecocks’ defense and they did reach 10 wins (though missing the best teams in the West helped).

14) Kansas State

Bravo, Wildcats. 10 wins, with this schedule and this roster? Bill Snyder needs to be a Coach of the Year candidate. However… I fear for K-State in their Cotton Bowl matchup with Arkansas. Look at KSU’s season, and you’ll see that the biggest margin of victory over any competent team was seven points. This team averages 33 points a game and gives up nearly 28. That’s a recipe for disaster against a talented opponent.

15) Clemson

Welcome back, I guess? Clemson’s season has officially gone nuts. It makes no sense that after their putrid 1-3 stretch, the Tigers could just reach back into the bag and pull out another beatdown of Virginia Tech. Yet that’s exactly what they did, looking every bit the part of the 8-0 BCS title contenders they were in late October. You can’t explain that.

16) TCU

The Horned Frogs lost two games in 2011: a two-point thriller the opening week in Waco and in overtime to SMU. They beat Boise State, a team that should have been playing in a BCS bowl in their own right. They’ve also been one of the most consistent teams in the country the past five years. But it’s Michigan who will be playing in the Sugar Bowl, not TCU. How disgusting.

17) Virginia Tech

And playing the part of the only team even more unworthy of their BCS bid than Michigan… Look, the Hokies have a great record. Both their losses came to a good Clemson team. I’d even pick them to beat the Wolverines. But we’re talking about deserving here, and VT didn’t beat a single ranked team. Everyone talked before the season about how the schedule was loaded with creampuffs. Looks like it paid off.

18) Michigan

For all I say about Michigan’s inflated reputation, there are a lot of things to like about this team. They beat the squads who were worse than them (suffering letdowns is a big pitfall, after all) and one who was probably better (Nebraska), their defense improved markedly in 2011 and the program looked rejuvenated under Brady Hoke. They just didn’t deserve the Sugar Bowl.

19) Houston

Oh, Houston. I so wanted the Cougars to get that win, not only for their own once-proud fans but for the Conference USA as a whole. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. Case Keenum wasn’t bad, but on a day the defense got shredded he would have needed to be incredible to keep UH in it. As a final insult, Keenum was not invited to the Heisman ceremony. Not a great way to end the year.

20) Nebraska

I don’t like the prospect of Nebraska’s one-dimensional offense versus that South Carolina D. Sure, the Gamecocks have problems of their own when it comes to moving the ball, but we’ve seen the results in past bowls games when SEC defenses get a chance to study up on bad QB’s like Taylor Martinez.

21) Georgia

The Bulldogs certainly had their chances Saturday (I don’t know how LSU got out of that first half down by less than 17) and they just blew it. Now it’s on to the Outback Bowl, where they probably feel pretty good about their chances considering what happened the last time an SEC team played Michigan State.

22) Northern Illinois

What an escape. NIU was seemingly about to blow it in the MAC Championship again when the Huskies got some divine intervention in the form of a bad Ohio play call and subsequent interception. I’m glad that the better team won, but that was as nerve-wracking as it could have possibly been.

23) Florida State

FSU finished 8-4, but they easily could have gone 11-1. Jimbo Fisher has done a nice job here since taking over and probably had as good a team this year as he did in 2010. Last year’s Seminoles just caught a few more breaks. I expect this program to continue to rise back to national prominence. Now if they could just figure out that pesky Virginia Tech problem.

24) Southern Miss

I had the Golden Eagles ranked a few weeks back until they were upset by UAB. As it turned out, that loss probably kept USM out of a BCS game. That’s a shame, because the nation got to see what a quality team Larry Fedora has in that drubbing of Houston. The defensive numbers for this squad are incredible – eight INT’s for touchdowns? Are you serious?

25) West Virginia

Thankfully, sense finally prevailed in the Big East. WVU got the BCS nod due to the tiebreaker in the polls and all is right. Until the conference gets split apart next season, that is. Gulp. If there is a Big East team capable of winning a BCS bowl, though, it’s the Mountaineers. They just have to avoid the mistakes that plagued them in their two league losses.

Pac-12 Thoughts

It was far from a great game Friday night in Eugene, so let’s not dwell on the flop that was the league’s first championship game. Instead, let’s focus on the future of the conference, which has had people buzzing for more than a week. Mike Leach is now the head coach at Washington State, a very exciting prospect. Ever since Leach was run out at Texas Tech by a shady consortium of stingy boosters, the James family and ESPN, I’ve wondered where he might coach next. Arizona was rumored to be a possible destination after the early-season firing of Mike Stoops, but the Wildcats found their own man in Rich Rodriguez. The oddball Leach is a funny fit at Washington State, but there’s potential for a great partnership there.

But what’s more intriguing is how these minds will affect the Pac-12 conference. Regardless of what anyone thinks about the circumstances surrounding their respective firings, Leach and Rodriguez are brilliant offensive innovators. Together with Chip Kelly, they’ll form a hugely influential wing of coaches who have been instrumental in bringing the spread offense to the forefront in college football and increasingly in the NFL. The Pac-12 has long been known for offense, and with these hires Wazzu and Arizona announced that they will be taking the fight to their conference rivals. I have very good feelings about the West Coast landing these guys. Depending on whom UCLA and Arizona State find, we may have some fierce competition coming in a few seasons once the new systems have been fully employed at these schools.

Heisman Watch

Should be at the ceremony:

Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Richardson has carried the load for an offense that has few playmakers besides himself. However, he’s also played behind what is probably the best line in the nation, which limits my enthusiasm for his candidacy. He’s the most NFL-ready back out there, but he’s not Heisman-worthy. I was annoyed when Mark Ingram won this thing two years ago, and I’ll be similarly frustrated if another Alabama player steals the award by virtue of playing on the nation’s best(?) team.

Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin

Ball’s candidacy is based on stats, because he plays in a very good offense led by a borderline-Heisman player at QB as well. His outrageous TD numbers don’t quite match up to his yards, though (typically, it’s a 1:100 ratio), which shows that he gets all the carries on the goal line and somewhat inflates his stock. His line is just as good as Richardson’s, which springs him for big gains more often than not. He’s good, but not good enough to win.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Any long shot Keenum had of winning the award was dashed when the Cougars lost, which instead cost him an invite completely. It shouldn’t have; Keenum is the rare “system” QB who makes the system better and his numbers from this season alone (he led the nation in passing and offense, for goodness’ sake) should have afforded him some respect. There’s no doubt Houston would have been far worse off without Keenum at the helm.

Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU

I’m fine with Mathieu being honored as a finalist; he’s a great playmaker. But winning? Absolutely not. I’ve watched a lot of LSU this season, and one thing I’ve noticed is how often Mathieu lines up in the slot and/or blitzes. That’s fine from a general defensive standpoint, but the best corner on your defense doesn’t do that. That’s why Morris Claiborne is busing locking people down every play. Mathieu plays in a great defense that allows him the luxury of being able to run around and cause havoc. He shouldn’t be rewarded for having great players around him.

Deserve to actually win:

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck has a good line, yes, but Oregon proved that it’s not an elite one. His running back(s) are solid, but please. None of them are special in a game-changing way. The receivers? Pitiful. Among the worst in the conference. His tight ends are great, but having a bunch of tight ends really isn’t as big a luxury as you might think when there’s no one on the outside to scare people. Luck’s run his offense beautifully and navigated the Cardinal to another one-loss season. Without him this team has four or five losses, minimum.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Griffin is the only candidate I’d be remotely comfortable with winning the award if Luck does not. RG3 has been magnificent this year, passing for just fewer than 4,000 yards and 36 TD’s and adding more than 600 and nine on the ground. He’s got more to work with than Luck, to be sure, but watching Griffin play shows how even his stats don’t tell the whole story. It’s the classic distinction between a “running quarterback” and a “quarterback who can run” that makes him a program changer, just like Luck.

Random Thoughts and Observations

As Urban Meyer was hired at Ohio State, I wondered again why it is that people trust men like this. Not unlike Nick Saban when he was in the NFL, Meyer flatly denied that a deal was in place or that any contact had even occurred. In time, of course, both men were proved to have been lying to our faces and expecting everyone to accept it. It’s amazing how people can fool themselves into supporting guys like Saban and Meyer, who have never given anyone any reason to believe a word they say. Why would a player respect as an authority figure a man who will say anything to avoid the truth? How can fans fool themselves into thinking that these coaches care about the program when they’ve shown time and time again to care only about themselves? And what makes school administrators, presidents or athletic directors think they can trust a person who has a history of publicly lying? It demonstrates, I suppose, just how desperate for wins most programs are. And that’s a very disturbing thing.

After most of the conference realignment hubbub had died down, guess who jumped back in the news with another wacky idea? That’s right, the frightening monstrosity that was once the Big East! As I write this, reports say that as early as tomorrow (Wednesday) morning the league will add Boise State, San Diego State, SMU, UCF and Houston. Uh, what? SMU, UCF, Houston – those are understandable. UCF has long coveted a spot alongside hated South Florida in a BCS conference, while SMU and Houston are former BCS-level heavyweights who want a return to the glory days. But Boise and SDSU should be ashamed. I know the allure of a BCS conference is intoxicating, but the schools are selling themselves out to make this leap. There’s not even any guarantee the Big East will continue to enjoy BCS status past 2013: the conference comes up woefully short in the automatic-qualifier metrics the BCS uses to determine which leagues get bids. Even by adding Boise State (the obvious reason the Big East wants them), it’s hard to imagine that the average ranking of the conference’s remaining members would be enough to qualify (especially with the loss of West Virginia). If it goes through, this move would epitomize the ridiculousness of realignment – based entirely on the well-being of football, with no regard for tradition (allegedly an important emphasis for the BCS folks), logistics (some sweet traveling costs there) or long-term planning. Just jump in, the BCS will make it better. I hope you all go 0-12.

I’ll be back before bowl season to do my previews and predictions, and hopefully to laugh about the stupid Big East deal that didn’t go through.