Wave I of bowl season

To start with, congratulations are in order for one Robert Griffin III, the first Heisman winner from Baylor and one of the very few players in D-1 football who can accurately be called a “student-athlete.” I think Stanford’s Andrew Luck is still the best player in the country, but Griffin had a better single season this year, so he deserved to win just as much as Luck. The unfortunately reality for both schools is that once these program-changing quarterbacks leave for the NFL it’s likely their teams will slide back into obscurity. However, the fact that Luck and Griffin were able to elevate their moribund programs the way they did makes their accomplishments all the more impressive.

Now, for the bowls. In the past I’ve taken different tacks on the college postseason, poking fun at the awful game names and the unworthiness of teams involved. This year I’ve decided to gloss over the bowl titles (which are largely unchanged from past seasons anyway) and just give the most honest preview I can of how each game will unfold. I do research the participants, but each contest’s section will differ in detail based on my familiarity with the teams (though I’m sadly sure the 10 minutes of research I might do for a squad will far surpass the effort of most poll voters).

Because of time constraints, I’ll preview the New Year’s bowls next week, when I’ve had a chance to think more about them. In my analysis I’ll rate each game on its watchability on a scale of one to five, five being most watchable. I’m also abbreviating the bowl names because it’s really annoying to have to type them out. So here we go, in chronological order (all times Pacific, because why would you need any other?):

New Mexico – Dec. 17, 11:00 a.m.

Temple vs. Wyoming

I’m something of a Wyoming masochist, so I’m not entirely unfamiliar with the Cowboys. Long a laughingstock, Wyoming finished a very respectable third in the Mountain West this season behind TCU and Boise State (a league, it should be noted, much tougher than Temple’s MAC). However, there’s no question that the best player in this game belongs to the Owls. Running back Bernard Pierce is a bit injury-prone, but he’s a magnificent workhorse, averaging over 1,000 yards a season the past three years. He’s also scored 51 rushing touchdowns in his career, 25 of which came this season. But the kicker is Temple’s D – third nationally in scoring defense, including seven games allowing 10 points or fewer. The Owls should win.

Watchability: Three. Pierce is fun to watch and Wyoming’s resurgence is a decent story, but this isn’t anything special.

Famous Idaho Potato – Dec. 17, 2:30 p.m.

Ohio vs. Utah State

Ohio is good-but-not-great in almost every important statistical category, but as their 9-4 record demonstrates, that’s not really a bad thing. Generally, the Bobcats have been able to generate offense when they’ve had to and have gotten most of the defensive stops they’ve needed, with the exception of that dreadful second half against Northern Illinois in the MAC championship. Utah State is more of a typical mid-major (good offense, bad defense); the Aggies have a nice ground game, run a little option, and catch you on play action. Like Ohio, they finished second in their conference, though that means even less in the WAC than it does in the MAC (you know Louisiana Tech won the WAC this year, right?). I think Ohio is a better team, but a couple of factors come into play in this matchup. There’s the Bobcats’ disappointment at their MAC title game collapse. There’s also the fact that the Aggies should have started the year 4-0 (remember all those unlucky early-season losses?) and their subsequent 5-0 finish. USU could have been as good as 11-1 this year. Because of that, I’ll take the Aggies.

Watchability: Two. There’s potential for a shootout, but a lack of star power or great team play pretty much kills this game.

New Orleans – Dec. 17, 6:00 p.m.

San Diego State vs. Louisiana Lafayette

The Aztecs have had to rebuild somewhat following their abandonment from Brady Hoke. It’s been more obvious defensively, but SDSU’s offense has also failed to rise above the middle of the pack in 2011. None of the team’s four losses are bad, but none of their eight wins are anything to get excited about either. Enter Louisiana Lafayette, a similarly unexciting squad who also didn’t beat anyone of consequence. I don’t love SDSU, but it would take a lot for me to pick a Sun Belt team in any game. That conference is horrendous.

Watchability: One. Stay away.

St. Petersburg – Dec. 20, 5:00 p.m.

Florida International vs. Marshall

This one seems pretty cut-and-dry to me. Despite a better record, FIU only played two BCS-conference teams, beating Louisville and losing to Duke. Marshall went 6-6, but the Thundering Herd’s schedule was a veritable minefield for a mid-major. Look at the losses: West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Houston, Tulsa – good teams all. Offensively both the Herd and Golden Panthers are mediocre, while FIU holds a significant edge defensively. Once again, though, I question the opponents against whom those numbers were attained. Marshall should win.

Watchability: One. Nothing to see here, people, move along.

Poinsettia – Dec. 21, 5:00 p.m.

TCU vs. Louisiana Tech

The Horned Frogs’ two losses came in a wild shootout with Baylor and an overtime game with SMU marred by questionable officiating. LaTech started slow, but won their last seven en route to the WAC title. TCU also won their final seven games, but the circumstances were a little different. The Bulldogs have had a nice run, but six of their season-ending victories were against conference opponents and the seventh was over awful Ole Miss. It’s hard for me to imagine a way LTU can win this game.

Watchability: Three. I don’t think it’ll be close, but did you know TCU has a top-10 scoring offense?

Vegas – Dec. 22, 5:00 p.m.

Arizona State vs. Boise State

This is easily the saddest of the 2011 bowl matchups. A rudderless, coach-less, undisciplined .500 team against a legitimate BCS bowl team and national title contender. I don’t want to waste time of this game. Maybe Vontaze Burfict and the ASU defense can summon their old spirit and rise up against the Broncos, but I really doubt it. BSU is going to score, and score a lot.

Watchability: Two, but only because it’s one last chance to witness Kellen Moore’s mastery.

Hawaii – Dec. 24, 5:00 p.m.

Nevada vs. Southern Miss

The Wolf Pack were on a nice little roll during the second half of the season, but then they lost to the last two good teams they played. UNR did lose a couple of close games and still nearly won the WAC, and that Pistol rushing attack is humming along as ever. But… Southern Miss is really solid. Outside of an early loss to Marshall and a flukey late loss to UAB, the Golden Eagles have been just that: golden. With an outstanding offense and an opportunistic D, USM very nearly jumped into a BCS bowl this year. Nevada is young and still rebuilding from the dream season that was 2010. Even with the loss of their coach, Southern Miss wins.

Watchability: Three. USM QB Austin Davis can be very good, and the true Pistol is always worth a look.

Independence – Dec. 26, 2:00 p.m.

Missouri vs. North Carolina

The Tigers and Tar Heels have identical records but their seasons tell different stories. UNC started 3-0 with ACC title aspirations but won only three league games. 7-5 should rightfully have been considered a disappointment. Mizzou didn’t accrue a lot of great wins, but the team faced a gauntlet in the Big 12 and traveled to Arizona State to play the Sun Devils when they were at their best. I don’t really trust Tar Heels QB Bryn Renner, and even though the Tigers’ James Franklin had his ups and downs, he’s put together a solid season with 33 combined TD’s. Make no mistake, both teams are capable of winning this game, but I’ll go with Missouri.

Watchability: Four. The outcome is a bit of a toss-up, there will probably be turnovers, what’s not to like?

Little Caesars – Dec. 27, 1:30 p.m.

Western Michigan vs. Purdue

Western Michigan looks a lot like the Joe Tiller Purdue teams of old – lots of receivers, spread the ball around, don’t bother running the ball, etc. Of course, Tiller’s no longer at the helm for the Boilermakers, so this game won’t be the mirror image contest it could have been. Neither of these teams exactly lit it up in 2011, though both have some nice playmakers. WMU’s Jordan White led the nation in catches and yards and finished second in touchdown receptions, while Purdue’s Ralph Bolden is a dynamic dual threat out of the backfield. However, Bolden will miss this game with yet another knee injury, so I think the Broncos will win.

Watchability: Three. Purdue’s QB situation has become intriguing the second half of the year and White is worthy of your time. Probably not a great game otherwise.

Belk – Dec. 27, 5:00 p.m.

Louisville vs. North Carolina State

It’s true that Louisville very nearly won the Big East, but that’s much more a reflection of the league’s mediocrity than any strengths of the Cardinals. The boys from the ‘Ville went 2-3 in nonconference play, losing to two mid-majors at home. NCSU went .500 in ACC play but finished strong with five wins in their last seven games. Let’s be honest: I don’t love the Wolfpack and they’re probably not that great. Nowadays, though, I tend to treat the Big East like the non-AQ conference it should be, which means I have to search for reasons why any of its teams will win a game against a real BCS school. I don’t see one here. Cardinals freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater had, by my estimation, a great year, but even he doesn’t give me enough confidence to pick Louisville.

Watchability: One. Bridgewater may be a rising star, but there’s nothing of value here.

Military – Dec. 28, 1:30 p.m.

Toledo vs. Air Force

Ah, what a clash of styles this will be! The explosive, up-tempo Rockets against the option-heavy Falcons. Air Force has been known in the past for their great ground game and that continued in 2011 as the academy finished second in the country in rushing. Unfortunately, the Falcons’ other calling card – solid defense – was no where to be found this season, as the team gave up more than 27 points per game. I really like Toledo, who would have gone 12-1 this year if not for a slew of bad luck: a fourth-and-goal incompletion at Ohio State, an erroneously upheld PAT at Toledo and a wild shootout loss to Northern Illinois. Even the 25-point loss to Boise State is misleading; the Rockets controlled the game in the first half and dropped a pair of wide-open touchdown passes. In any other season I’d quickly side with Air Force’s unconventional style and tough defense, but that’s just not what we’ve seen out of this team this year. Toledo will win.

Watchability: Four. Both teams will score, and they’ll do it in very different ways. The Rockets have a ton of fun weapons, headlined by receiver Eric Page.

Holiday – Dec. 28, 5:00 p.m.

California vs. Texas

Let’s just start by establishing that Texas is a bad team. The bizarre media fascination with the Longhorns reached impressive heights (or more accurately, lows) in 2011, but against Baylor Robert Griffin finally proved what I’ve been saying for months – UT isn’t good. The team finished sixth in the ten-team Big 12 and went 4-5 in conference, losing to each of the five teams ahead of them and beating the four below them. Overall, the Longhorns beat one team with a winning record (BYU), and they needed a second-half comeback to win 17-16. That’s not to say that Cal isn’t very similar; on the contrary, the Golden Bears also beat just one team with a winning record (Utah) and finished a disappointing 7-5 as well. Both teams averaged about the same amount of yards and points, with Texas leaning more on the run and Cal more on the pass. Both defenses also gave up nearly the exact same number of points a game. On paper, I like Cal. The Bears have far superior players at the skill positions, in particular RB Isi Sofele and WR Keenan Allen. But, but, but… I can’t pick Cal. QB Zach Maynard is the biggest problem, but his play has really been just a microcosm of the team’s identity this season: erratic. You never know what you’re going to get with Cal. With Texas, you can at least count on a certain level of mediocrity.

Watchability: Four. This could be a classic or a disaster, but either way there will be excitement. It’s the Holiday Bowl!

Champs Sports – Dec. 29, 2:30 p.m.

Florida State vs. Notre Dame

This is a tough one. Both Notre Dame and FSU had good seasons that could be been special if a few more breaks had gone their way. Both teams are top-25 in terms of roster talent, and neither was blown out in any game this year. The Irish and Seminoles also both feature a pair of QB’s with game experience. Offensively Notre Dame is a little more explosive, while FSU has the advantage defensively. That probably has as much to do with the coaches’ respective philosophies as anything else. It’s hard to evaluate Notre Dame’s independent schedule, though I’d wager it’s about as difficult as the ACC slate FSU managed. I’d like to pick the Seminoles, but I don’t think this team has a lot of skill talent outside of E.J. Manuel. The receiving corps of the Irish is scary, even against the FSU defense. I’ll take Notre Dame.

Watchability: Four. A couple of storied programs, to be sure, but this one just promises to be a good game.

Alamo – Dec. 29, 6:00 p.m.

Washington vs. Baylor

The defenses? Awful. The offenses? Good. Quite good. Especially Baylor’s. There’s a chance UW could win this thing in a shootout, but I just don’t see it happening unless Baylor starts turning it over. The Huskies already got ripped apart by Taylor Martinez, so Lord knows what they’ll do against RG3. Washington’s hope lies with the Bears’ D, which is even worse than their own (35 points per game? Yikes). But if you look at the way the two teams ended the year, this is a no-brainer. UW went 2-4 in the second half of the season, low-lighted by a three-game skid to start November. Baylor won their final five, including an upset of Oklahoma. Baylor wins this one too.

Watchability: Four. There should be a whole lot of scoring in this game.

Armed Forces – Dec. 30, 9:00 a.m.

BYU vs. Tulsa

I’ve been suspicious of BYU’s credentials all season. It all started back in September, when the Cougars were thrashed at home by Utah, 54-10. We knew back then what we know now – Utah isn’t really that good. But BYU rolled to a 9-3 record, so you’d be forgiven for thinking that this team had kind of rounded into form as the year went along. But look at the schedule. Whoa. Now that’s the kind of garbage it usually takes an SEC scheduler to dream up. Who’s the best win? Hawai’i? Utah State? Ugh. Tulsa, on the other hand, rebounded from their 1-3 start (against three top 10 teams) to win seven straight, with their only other blemish the season-ending loss to Houston. G.J. Kinne is an outstanding passer who has kept the air attack humming, but the Golden Hurricanes’ ground game isn’t anything to scoff at either, with two rushers over 800 yards. I don’t think BYU stands a chance.

Watchability: Three. Good offenses, but let’s not act like this is anything less than a seven-on-seven drill.

Pinstripe – Dec. 30, 12:20 p.m.

Rutgers vs. Iowa State

I’ve watched ISU’s pluckiness with a smile the past few seasons. The Cyclones always seem to clip someone, whether it be rival Iowa (several times) or Oklahoma State this year. Realistically, though, this team is fortunate to be in a bowl. It took a couple of big upsets for ISU to get to 6-6 and the team won just three Big 12 games. Rutgers was the very definition of a middle of the road team in 2011. They didn’t notch any truly impressive wins outside of a 20-3 crushing of Cincinnati, but there was also only one bad loss (by 18 to UConn). The one constant for the Scarlet Knights was their defense, which ranked 12^th in country. I have a feeling ISU will be just happy to be here, whereas Rutgers has been to a couple of bowls recently and should handle their business.

Watchability: Two. Bad offenses and unexciting styles combine for boring bowl games.

Music City – Dec. 30, 3:40 p.m.

Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest

Ohhhhh. Why is this game being played? I’ll say this for Wake Forest: at least they earned their way here with a 5-3 conference record. MSU did nothing to justify a bowl bid, going 2-6 in conference play but taking the coward’s route and getting to .500 thanks to a quartet of nonleague patsies (and no, the Bulldogs don’t get credit for scheduling WAC champion Louisiana Tech because they clearly thought LTU was going to be bad as well). The combined wins of the five FBS teams MSU beat? 20. They AVERAGED 4-8 records between them. And yet here the Bulldogs are, in a bowl game. There are few things more painful than watching MSU’s high-school caliber – both in production and sophistication – offense. Their defense is quite good, though, which is why I fear MSU may win this game. Because that’s what bad SEC teams do, just to make everyone else furious.

Watchability: One. Stay away, for your own sanity.

Insight – Dec. 30, 7:00 p.m.

Iowa vs. Oklahoma

I’m still not sure how Iowa managed to become bowl eligible. I remember the Penn State loss and the Michigan State loss. I do remember the Hawkeyes upsetting Michigan. But I also remember this team losing to Minnesota, which you’d think would be some kind of automatic disqualification. But here we are at the end of the year and Iowa has seven wins. Go figure. They’ve got no chance in this game, though, unless the Sooners completely mail it in. OU has one of the nation’s best offenses and best QB’s, and in two of their three losses they still scored 38 points. It’s possible the Hawkeyes could run the ball and keep the Sooners off the field, but Iowa just isn’t nearly dynamic enough offensively to have sustained success against OU. Oklahoma should win.

Watchability: Two. Oklahoma’s missing some guys and Iowa’s skill players are more consistent than explosive.

Car Care – Dec. 31, 9:00 a.m.

Texas A&M vs. Northwestern

Another one of those “Why is this game happening?” bowls. A&M and Northwestern both went .500 and finished with five league losses, though their seasons were entirely different tales of woe. A&M became known for their spectacular collapses, five in all, where the Aggies lost late leads and turned a season of great promise into a year of despair that ended with a fired coach. Northwestern got off to a rocky start against some tough opponents without star QB Dan Persa and fell to 2-5, only to win four straight to grab bowl eligibility from the jaws of a potential 3-9 season. Despite their inspiring finish, though, the Wildcats didn’t exactly face a second-half gauntlet. Upsetting Nebraska was huge, but the other three victories came against Rice, Indiana and Minnesota. A&M had a very trying year, but this is still a talented squad, far more so than Northwestern. I expect them to go out motivated against the Wildcats.

Watchability: Two. I like Persa a lot and it will be interesting to see how the Aggies play sans Mike Sherman, but otherwise this shouldn’t be close.

Sun – Dec. 31, 11:00 a.m.

Georgia Tech vs. Utah

Everyone knows I love Georgia Tech, but it’s hard to know what to expect from them in bowl games. More than any other offense, the option can be “solved” (relatively speaking) with extra time off. Utah has a nice defense that finished in the nation’s top 20, and I’m sure the Utes will be working hard to find a way to stop Tevin Washington and company. I do worry about the Utes’ middling offense, but we’ve seen that the team can put drives together when they’re on the same page. On the other side, GT’s offense can be both explosive and dreadful on any given day. When it wasn’t working this year, the option attack looked awful. Both of these teams have been inconsistent this season, but I’ll go with Utah and their defense over whatever these frustrating offenses put up.

Watchability: Three. Both teams are decent but not great. They might both need to carry the conference flag as well, given how poorly I expect the ACC and Pac-12 to do this bowl season.

Liberty – Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.

Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt

I think this game needs some higher stakes, so here it is: if 9-3 Big East co-champion Cincinnati can’t beat 6-6 Vanderbilt, the Big East automatically gets its AQ status revoked. Virtually the only thing anyone knows about Vandy is that they’ve got Aaron Rodgers’ little brother on the team. Cincinnati just finished first in their conference for the third time in four years, boasts playmakers at every position and should be angry at being snubbed by the BCS rankings (even if they did get it right). I don’t want to waste time on this game. This better be Bearcats all the way.

Watchability: Three. Zach Collaros, Isaiah Pead and Anthony McClung form as solid a 1-2-3 combo as you’ll find in the NCAA ranks.

Fight Hunger – Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m.

Illinois vs. UCLA

There are a lot of bad bowls this year. This is the very worst. Who would you rather be, the team on a six-game losing streak or the team who needed a waiver to go bowling at 6-7 and just fired their coach? Oh wait, Illinois fired Ron Zook too. Ugh. There is absolutely nothing redeeming about this contest, which represents the worst of the bowl expansion madness. Neither the Bruins nor the Illini deserve to be playing in the postseason. For what it’s worth, I guess I’ll take UCLA. They have a good running game?

Watchability: One, but only because I previously made 1-5 the standard. This game rates about a negative-50.

Chick-fil-A – Dec. 31, 4:30 p.m.

Virginia vs. Auburn

At the beginning of the season I would have gladly picked Auburn, even though the Tigers were fortunate to not start the year out 0-3. Gus Malzahn remains one of college football preeminent offensive innovators and he earned his paycheck this season by getting these QB’s to put up any points at all. Auburn’s five losses all came to ranked teams, so there is reason for optimism given the schedule. However, outside of the win over South Carolina (not even that impressive to begin with) the Tigers didn’t beat anyone. Virginia’s slate was much more manageable and the Cavaliers came within one game of playing for the ACC title. Sadly, that one game turned out to be a 38-0 beating from rival Virginia Tech in the finale. Even with my concerns about Virginia, though, I almost picked them in this game because of the injuries and suspensions Auburn is dealing with. In the end I decided to go with the Tigers, but I don’t trust either team.

Watchability: Two. Malzahn’s offense, nothing else.

It appears the Big East has succumbed to “the madness,” but I’m sure even more insanity will have forsaken college football by next week, so I’ll address expansion and the most recent hirings and firings in my next post along with the remainder of the bowls.