And here we sit... at the end of it all

On to the conference championships we go. There wasn’t quite the same level of excitement this Saturday as there was the previous week, when four top-ten teams fell, but we did get some answers about which teams are legitimate heavyweights heading into the postseason.

Clemson? Out. The no-show at North Carolina State was one thing, the blowout against crippled rival South Carolina was another entirely. Unacceptable. Arkansas? Also gone after ending the LSU game on the wrong side of a 41-3 run. The Hogs had no business in the top five.

Houston, though, showed what they were made of in a runaway victory at Tulsa. That was impressive, as was Virginia Tech’s 38-0 humiliation of rival Virginia. Another ACC title looks to be in order for the Hokies.

Eliminated from BCS contention were Notre Dame (hanging on to slim hopes before getting manhandled by Stanford) and probably Michigan. The Wolverines technically still have a shot, but they absolutely don’t deserve one. For some reason ESPN and the school have been touting UM as a possible BCS team for a couple of weeks, which is utterly laughable if you take five seconds to look at their schedule and see that they beat one team in their conference with a winning record.

The new BCS standings also feature a twist in Stanford’s number four ranking. If it holds through next week, this would make the Cardinal an automatic-qualifying team, just like last season. That would be a big blow to Michigan. Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State would also be killer, because the Big 12 would then be assured two spots like the Pac-12.

The BCS bowls are going to be a little strange this season because in all likelihood both of the SEC’s teams will be in the same game. That will alter the traditional matchups (except the Rose Bowl) and could leave room for a team like Michigan, Baylor or Kansas State to sneak in. This weekend will complete the story.

Top 25

1) LSU

Georgia is ranked 14^th and all, so… no one cares. I doubt anyone outside of Athens thinks it’s remotely possible LSU loses this game. After a slow start against Arkansas last week, the Tigers calmly cut their 12^th consecutive opponent down to size. They’ll do the same to the Bulldogs in the SEC championship.

2) Alabama

I’m not happy about it but this is the way it has to go. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this week, I’ll vouch for the Cowboys to leapfrog the Crimson Tide. That’s the only way Alabama doesn’t get their precious rematch. They don’t deserve it, but they’re going to get it anyway because…

3) Oklahoma State

OSU will lose to Oklahoma. I still have the Pokes third here because they should move into the title game with a Bedlam win. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. More on that game in my conference championship discussion. OSU is quite good, but I’m not confident they can take that last step.

4) Oregon

The Ducks disposed of Oregon State in their usual fashion, then got the good fortune of a date with UCLA. I don’t want to jinx it, but let’s be real: a loss in the Pac-12 championship at home to a coach-less, .500 Bruins team would be the most embarrassing failure in school history. There’s a reason Oregon is a 30-point favorite.

5) Stanford

That was a nice win over Notre Dame. The 14-point margin didn’t tell the whole story, as Andrew Luck went off and the Cardinal brutally pounded the Fighting Irish into submission. Now this team has to hope and pray that they can retain that coveted fourth spot in the BCS.

6) Oklahoma

Survived the Iowa State test (hey, OSU couldn’t do it) to set up a Bedlam Game for the ages. This is the first time in several years that I consider the two teams to be on a level playing field and the game is in Stillwater. To make matters worse, OU will be without all-world receiver Ryan Boyles and young running back Dominique Whaley.

7) USC

At this point in the season my rankings start to value recent performance over the full-year resume. That’s good for USC, who looked dreadful early on but found their stride in the last month, culminating in a season-ending stomping of rival UCLA. 50-0? Are you kidding? If Matt Barkley stays… well, he won’t. But if he does…

8) Boise State

Wyoming’s not bad this year (see 7-4 record, third in the Mountain West), but Boise’s 36-14 win over the Cowboys was still somewhat uninspiring. While the Broncos’ defense has been outstanding – other than a couple of deep balls against TCU – the fact remains that Kellen Moore and Co. just haven’t been quite the world-beaters we’re used to seeing.

9) Virginia Tech

The 38-0 pantsing of rival Virginia was the best performance of the year by the Hokies. I’ve been reluctant to believe in this team all season, but I’m starting to feel very good about their chances in the ACC championship. A BCS bowl win is perhaps asking too much, though this week will be a good indication of where VT will finish.

10) Arkansas

There’s no plausible reason for Arkansas to stay near the top five of the polls. Supporters will cry that both the Razorbacks’ losses came to the two best teams, the correct rebuttal to which is, “Yes, and they were blown out in both games.” This team has “good” losses. What they don’t have is good wins. If they’d played Georgia they would have lost to the Bulldogs too.

11) Houston

I like Houston, but I can only honestly rank them ahead of teams who don’t have the ability to stop them. You need a good offense-defense combo to beat the Cougars; enough offense to keep up and enough defense to keep them off the field. I think every team in my top 10 could do that.

12) Michigan State

Big game for the Spartans, who haven’t been to the Rose Bowl in more than 20 years. MSU has been on a pretty nice roll in November, stifling opponents with solid defense and putting up touchdowns at steady pace. I have my doubts about this team beating Wisconsin a second time, so we’ll see who’s made better adjustments come Saturday night.

13) Wisconsin

Wisconsin has been both very hot and very cold this year. At times they’ve looked like champions, such as when hammered Nebraska in October and blasted Penn State last week. They’ve also looked frighteningly pedestrian at times, though, losing to 6-6 Ohio State and needing some horrendous officiating to survive Illinois. The former team will win the Big 10 title game easily, while the latter will bow out quietly.

14) Georgia

You can give UGA some credit for beating Georgia Tech, but as I said last week, the Yellow Jackets are so erratic you never know what you’ll get from them. Now it’s on to the conference championship, where the Bulldogs will run into the LSU buzzsaw. Quarterback Aaron Murray is pretty good, but he’ll need to be better than good for Georgia to have a chance this Saturday.

15) Kansas State

Considering that Kansas State lacks the kind of talent of teams above them on this list, the fact that the Wildcats are going for their tenth win against Iowa State this week is amazing. I still don’t think K-State is more than an above-average team who caught some breaks and I don’t like their chances in their bowl, but you can really appreciate the fight this team has shown this year.

16) South Carolina

Back-to-back 10-win seasons aren’t too shabby considering the mayhem this program has had to put up with this year. Young Connor Shaw looked like the answer at QB against Clemson. Marcus Lattimore will be back next season as well, so the Gamecocks, who just weeks ago looked lost, now seem to have a solid foundation in place for 2012.

17) Baylor

The Bears can’t play a lick of defense, but boy are they fun to watch. Robert Griffin is reportedly feeling no concussion symptoms before the Texas game, which will pit perhaps the nation’s most exciting player against the Big 12’s best (statistically, anyway) defense. If Baylor can get this thing into a shootout, they should be home free.

18) TCU

The season-ending matchup with 2-9 UNLV is kind of a downer, but I’m sure TCU isn’t upset at having already locked up the MWC. With their position as mid-major royalty firmly established, the Horned Frogs will now look to the future and the (finally) welcoming arms of the Big 12. If they build off of the second half of 2011 they could be contenders in their new league right from the start.

19) Michigan

Good job on finally beating Ohio State. But you have to realize that in order to do so, you needed to face the worst Buckeyes team in over a decade… and you still only squeaked out a six-point win. The good news is that Brady Hoke seems to be the right guy to lead Michigan back into the national spotlight.

20) Nebraska

The 20-7 win over Iowa didn’t exactly blow anyone away, but it did keep alive the Cornhuskers’ hopes for a third straight 10-win season. The great bowl tie-ins of the Big 10 will also ensure that Nebraska gets good exposure this postseason. I’m sure it hurts that this team didn’t make the title game their first year in the conference, but overall it was still a successful campaign.

21) Northern Illinois

Now riding a seven-game winning streak, the Huskies return to the MAC title game. Last year NIU dropped the ball here as favorites. Can they rebound from that frustrating episode? The opponent is another 9-3 team in Ohio, who is quite capable of pulling the upset. This is a hard one to figure, as is the Huskies continued absence from the polls.

22) Florida State

If not for a one-point, last-second loss to Virginia, FSU would also have a seven-game win streak heading into the postseason. The Seminoles’ late-September slide also cost them a division title, but the team has clearly improved over the course of the year. They seem to be just a step or two away from really announcing their return to national prominence.

23) Clemson

On the other side of the ACC coin we have Clemson. The 8-0 start, complete with a couple of magical comebacks, seemed to kill the “Clemson” tag this program has carried for too long. And then came the end of October. The Tigers went 1-3 after their dazzling start, with the lone win coming on a field goal as time expired. Now here comes an angry Virginia Tech squad eager to avenge their only loss of the season. Uh-oh.

24) West Virginia

Even if West Virginia doesn’t win the Big East they’re still the best team in the league (again). I’m sure the conference scheduled this Thursday’s contest with South Florida in the hope that the two teams would be playing for the title. Unfortunately, USF suffered a stunning fall from grace, going 1-5 in Big East play. WVU can still win the championship, but the Mountaineers require help that they shouldn’t have needed.

25) Texas

The Longhorns got a gutty win over rival A&M, so I’ll play along and toss them the final spot. It appears that UT has settled on a QB of the future (surprise! His name is McCoy) and they have a nice defense too. To me, the question of whether Mack Brown is any good is still the bigger problem hovering over this program. Time (and the last two games of this season) will tell.

Pac-12 Thoughts

We got exactly what we expected out of the Civil War, and more or less what we expected from the Apple Cup. Everywhere else was a bit of a crapshoot, as Utah blew a gigantic opportunity to win the South by losing to Colorado, Arizona State continued their downward spiral against Cal and UCLA was essentially wiped off the face of the earth by USC.

The real drama was gone midday Friday, when Utah’s loss automatically sent the Bruins north to either Eugene or Palo Alto. Oregon then took care of business, setting up perhaps the worst conference championship game since the idea was conceived: 10-2, 8-1 Oregon versus 6-6, 5-4 UCLA. The Bruins have been blown out of every game this year against a halfway decent squad and next Friday doesn’t look to change anything. UCLA seems to see the writing on the wall as well, as they’ve already fired Rick Neuheisel. Gulp. So much for a festive championship atmosphere.

The frustrating thing isn’t how the Bruins wormed their way into this game, it’s how ASU and Utah blew their chances to make it. The Sun Devils were clearly the best team in the South through October and they simply suffered an epic collapse. Utah started league play off terribly but rebounded and put themselves in position to go, only to drop the ball at the finish line. Very disappointing for the first season of the new conference.

I'll cover the coaching changes next week when everything is confirmed.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

He’s been the clear leader throughout the season and I didn’t want to waste time stating the obvious. The Notre Dame game demonstrated once again why he is so good: 20-30, four touchdowns, nearly perfect under duress.

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Scored three TD’s in the first half against Texas Tech before leaving with concussion symptoms. I’m not sure if he’s considered NFL-worthy yet, but he’s easily one of the best players at his position in the college game.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Delivered in a big way against a good Tulsa team. Obviously he has the outrageous numbers, but there is something different about Keenum than other spread “system” QB’s in the past.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In this post I’ve decided to use this space to talk about the conference championship games. Normally I don’t go over matchups in detail or make predictions, but with so few games to focus on I can do that this week. In chronological order:

MAC: 

Ohio and Northern Illinois are both pretty good teams. The MAC isn’t given much credit for producing solid mid-major squads, but the conference has pulled off some nice upsets in the past (one that immediately comes to mind is Central Michigan’s fantastic win over Michigan State in 2009). NIU is the sexy pick in this game, coming in averaging just fewer than 40 points per contest, 11^th in the country. The Huskies are also eighth in the country in rushing. However, Ohio’s defense is significantly better: the Bobcats give up just 22 points a game to NIU’s 32. Their offense is also more balanced than that of the Huskies. Throw in the fact that the MAC championship has a crazy history, and this matchup becomes a serious question mark. In the end, I’ll take NIU, but I won’t be surprised if Ohio makes it close or wins

Pac-12: 

This looks like a terrible game. This isn’t because Oregon is just that good; on the contrary, the Ducks have proved to be eminently stoppable when they’re out of rhythm this season. The problem is that UCLA is just that bad. At 6-6 the Bruins are already the worst team to ever play in a conference championship game, but they could have easily lost two or three other games as well. While there’s always a danger that UO could come out flat and let UCLA hang around, I just can’t predict anything but an Oregon win.

Conference USA: 

Do my eyes deceive me? Two ranked teams in the C-USA final? This is something for the league to be really proud of. Houston has made their mark on offense, but their defense has been solid throughout the season. Last week’s shutdown of the high-powered Tulsa attack was very impressive. Southern Miss has been known for defense, but in the last three games before last Saturday’s Memphis win the Golden Eagles had given up about 30 points each time out. I hope I don’t regret finally siding with them, but how can the Cougars not have won you over at this point? They get to host the title game, it’ll be Case Keenum’s last game at home… this just seems like too much in Houston’s favor.

SEC: 

There’s not a whole lot more I can say. Georgia is a nice team who has strung together a good streak against average competition. LSU has faced some of the best teams in the country and, with a few exceptions, dominated them all. Worst of all for the Tigers’ opponents, their offense finally seems to have come around to the point that it can be counted as an asset and not a liability. When you have a defense this special, that’s all you need. Every bit of evidence we’ve seen thus far indicates that LSU will win and make a statement doing so.

Big 12: 

It’s not actually a championship game, but because the Bedlam Game will be the de facto championship it only makes sense to preview it. I like Oklahoma State’s offense more than I ever have, which is really saying something if you’ve followed OSU. Oklahoma could have boasted similar numbers if the Sooners hadn’t lost some of their key playmakers. There have been some good shootouts in this game in the past, mainly because both offenses have been way ahead of the defenses. I’m sure we’ll see a good deal of scoring again this year, but I have questions about how each team matches up with the other defensively. OU’s defense is better, there’s no doubt about that. The Cowboys have improved on that side of the ball, but they can still be had at times. If OSU was ever to break through and win this game to take the conference title, this would be the year they would do it. But I’ve seen this story too many times: great OSU offense, lots of hype, K.O.-ed against Oklahoma. The history of this series – severely one-sided in favor of the Sooners – is too great for me to ignore. Even in Stillwater, I’ll take OU.

ACC: 

I thought last week I was going to be on the cutting edge with this pick, but after watching Clemson get blown out by South Carolina I think everyone is thinking the same thing: the Tigers don’t stand a chance. I don’t know what went wrong midway through the same for Clemson, but it’s been a shocking turnaround. Since clobbering Virginia Tech the first time around (in Blacksburg, no less), the team has just looked lost. The Hokies, on the other hand, seemed to accept that they had been soundly beaten and regrouped. They turned back every opponent they faced from then on (remember, this is the ACC, so take that with a grain of salt) and finished the year 11-1. It’s hard to imagine Clemson suddenly summoning the spirit that powered them so impressively in the first month of the year and winning this game. I’ll go with the more consistent team in Tech.

Big 10: 

The inaugural league title game in the Midwest will likely be the only conference championship with a lot of drama. Obviously, when these teams first played they were about as close as two squads could possibly be. Michigan State got the miracle win on the last play and Wisconsin was left to wonder what might have been. Now we appropriately get a rematch of the most – and ONLY – BCS-worthy teams in the Big 10. MSU has had another great year with what are, in my mind, lesser players than those of a power school like Wisconsin. The Badgers are only a couple of Hail Mary passes from being in the BCS championship, but they’re also fortunate to have even made it to 10 wins. A lot rides on Spartans QB Kirk Cousins. I think Michigan State’s running game is very overrated, so he’ll need to make plays. In reality, though, the game will be decided by which Wisconsin team shows up. At their best, the Badgers are simply better. The problem is that we haven’t seen that version of Wisconsin all that consistently this season. I’m going to be optimistic and say that “good” Wisconsin wins on Saturday.

Thanksgiving week: Time to feel the hate

First of all, let me say, “I told you so.” No good games last weekend, indeed! When was the last time the second, fourth, fifth and seventh-ranked teams all lost in one weekend? I accept your apology, ESPN and CBS. Now, about that national championship picture…

We’ve reached that unappealing place where there is no other option but to (likely) match up a pair of teams in the BCS title game who are not only from the same conference, but who have already played this season. It’s a nightmarish scenario that makes zero sense from a logical standpoint within the BCS system, but after the potential Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC champions all played themselves out of the picture, there’s nobody left. The Big 10 already reached that point earlier in the year, nobody takes the Big East seriously and Boise State blew their shot.

Really, that’s one of the bigger stories of this season: the Broncos finally would have gotten their shot if only they’d beaten TCU. In terms of what that might have meant for the BCS, this season fell short of greatness. The argument about whether a mid-major making it to the championship would be good or bad for the BCS is interesting. On one hand, it’s possible that BCS-conference teams would be furious at a non-automatic qualifier school getting the nod because of the weak schedule. On the other hand, there’s the thought that Boise State in the title game would vindicate the system, a sort of, “See? We told you, anyone can make it, so it’s fair!”

Personally, I’d have loved seeing BSU beat a traditional powerhouse because I think it would send a shock to the system. Anything that gets us closer to a playoff is good in my mind. It’s also important to note that I would have no qualms about an Alabama-LSU rematch if it came about through a playoff. Many champions in team sports don’t win their division or conference. Look at FCS football, which holds a 20-team playoff (including play-in round) composed of 10 conference champions and 10 at-large schools. There’s a 50 percent chance the eventual champ won’t have even won their own conference, but it doesn’t matter, because they’ll have played their way there. That isn’t the case with the BCS, where luck plays as much a part as on-field success.

Now, it’s possible that Alabama could beat Auburn, Arkansas could beat LSU and the top of the SEC West would be tied with three teams at 7-1. Here’s what I have to say about Arkansas’ chances this weekend: 3, 4, 5. In four (yes, FOUR) road games, that’s the Razorbacks’ margin of victory in three wins this season (they were also blown out at Alabama). The opponents in those games? 5-6 Vanderbilt, 6-5 Texas A&M and 2-9 Ole Miss, respectively. Saturday’s game against LSU? In Baton Rouge. Prepare for a whipping.

Top 25

1) LSU

Seriously, how are we even having this discussion any more? LSU is 11-0, they’ve taken on a difficult schedule (two ranked nonconference foes) and the Tigers have beaten 10 FBS teams with a combined 61-48 record. For comparison, Alabama’s nine wins are 51-48 (padded by 10-1 Arkansas and 9-2 Penn State), while Arkansas’ nine wins are 41-55. The chain of mediocrity and overratedness stops with LSU. This team is really, really good.

2) Alabama

I do respect Alabama’s defense, but I have legitimate questions about the teams the Crimson Tide played to get that gaudy 8.4-points-per-game average. Look at these numbers: of the FBS teams ‘Bama has played, Arkansas (18^th) is the only offense ranked in the top 70; the rest of the opponents are a stunning 71, 87, 89, 92, 97, 100, 101, 114 and 119. Remember, there are only 120 FBS teams.

3) Oklahoma State

Should OSU drop lower? Yes, but several other teams lost. I put Oklahoma State at third for now because there are several things that work in their favor. First, Ames is a hard place to play. Second, the Cowboys lost in double-overtime, which isn’t exactly shameful. And most importantly, there is no way I would pick Arkansas over this team.

4) Arkansas

Arkansas is usually my favorite SEC team, so I take no joy in saying this. But the truth is that the Razorbacks aren’t good. I don’t mean they’re “not elite, just decent,” I mean they’re a seven-win team masquerading as a title contender. Arkansas’ best win was over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks had already lost Stephen Garcia and Marcus Lattimore. After that, the only decent win was over Auburn, who is fortunate to have a winning record.

5) Oregon

The Ducks should have dropped to about ninth or so, but they were the beneficiaries of the Oklahoma and Clemson losses. I would have even moved UO down past Stanford, but then I remembered that, unlike the voters, I’m not a complete moron. Just two weeks ago, the college football world established that A) Standford hadn’t played anyone and B) Oregon was way, way better. Now, because the Ducks are 9-2 to the Cardinal’s clearly far superior 10-1, we’re supposed to forget that? What?

6) Stanford

I think the best way to describe Stanford is to say that they’re good in certain situations. If the opposition doesn’t have a good defense or fast skill players on offense, the Cardinal can roll. Outside of those parameters, though, this is a very beatable team. I love their hard-nosed mentality, their commitment to a complex offensive scheme and their willingness to break people down bit by bit for four quarters. I really don’t love their athletes.

7) Oklahoma

Who knew that losing Broyles and Whaley would actually have a greater impact on the defense? I was all set to pick OU in the Bedlam game after Oklahoma State went down Friday night (another fantastic mid-week thriller, by the way) and then the Sooners went and dropped one to Baylor. Now, I love me some RG3, but the Bears have no business beating Oklahoma. Ever.

8) Boise State

It’s going to be interesting to see what the program does after Kellen Moore leaves. Certainly it will be far more interesting than the next two weeks, when the Broncos face Wyoming and New Mexico. I don’t see a second massive upset this season for BSU, so we’ll probably be looking at an 11-1 non-conference champion Boise squad stuck in some awful bowl while a couple of 7-5 AQ teams play on New Year’s Day. Isn’t the BCS grand?

9) USC

In the fourth quarter against Oregon, the Trojans looked like the same cowed former conquerors they’d been for two years. For the first two and a half quarters, they looked like the team that won or shared every Pac-10 title from 2002 to 2008. While it’s premature to declare them “back” – especially with continuing scholarship reductions – there’s no doubt that last week’s win was the best pick-me-up SC could have asked for.

10) Virginia Tech

You may have noticed that I didn’t move VT at all despite four losses ahead of them. That’s because I have very little faith in this team. The win over Georgia Tech was nice, but until they beat Clemson in a rematch I still can’t consider a team out of a league this average to be anything more than decent.

11) Houston

Give the Cougars credit for tossing 37 on SMU; the Mustangs’ defense is pretty good this season. Still, Houston isn’t going to move up unless they do something really impressive. Blowing out Tulsa would win me over some more, but that will be a tall order against an offense that’s every bit as potent as Houston’s own.

12) Michigan State

I can’t really work out the Big 10 this year. Every time it seems as if we know a team’s identity, they surprise us (in both good and bad ways). While the record isn’t as good, I think this season’s MSU team is probably better at this point than last year’s squad. The Spartans have taken advantage of Michigan’s down period to build up their roster nicely and it’s paying off.

13) Kansas State

K-State is another team who really deserved to move down after a lackluster win over Texas. The Wildcats are 2011’s scrappy team. We get one every year; a team who’s not really great but hangs around and wins games they shouldn’t. Staring at a 10-2 finish, KSU should be proud of what they’ve done this year. Only losing to the Oklahoma schools is impressive.

14) Georgia

Oh, Georgia. You’ve beaten just two teams with winning records (and barely that, at 7-4 and 6-5), lost to the two best teams you played, and missed all three of the West’s good teams. Honestly, I’m not even sure the Bulldogs will beat rival Georgia Tech on Saturday. The game is in Atlanta and the option has caused trouble for this team in the past.

15) Wisconsin

The Badgers were very fortunate to beat Illinois. However, they got it done and now face Penn State for the right to play Michigan State again. Earlier in the season I would have considered it laughable that PSU would even have a chance in this game, but the way Wisconsin has played the past month it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Consistency has been such an issue for this team of late.

16) TCU

Nothing changed my opinion of TCU from last week to this week, but seeing fading South Carolina barely put away Florida on Saturday convinced me that the Horned Frogs could beat the Gamecocks. It’s funny how, after a tumultuous start to the season and questions about their future home, TCU has found both a prestigious conference to play in and several young players to build around. Questions answered.

17) Clemson

I know Clemson thought they had nothing to play for… but then came Saturday night. What a horrible feeling this team must have had, knowing that they could have been an inch from the BCS championship had they just come out motivated against North Carolina State. The Wolfpack played well, but I’ll never believe the Tigers just didn’t care about the outcome.

18) South Carolina

As the somewhat close victory over The Citadel showed, South Carolina is just worn down. Toothless offensively without their two best players and beat up from a season’s worth of games, the Gamecocks were mercifully knocked out of the East race when Georgia beat Kentucky. Playing Clemson isn’t exactly the kind of season-ending matchup this team needed, but it’s better than having to face LSU.

19) Michigan

Wow, where did that come from? Michigan’s track record this year never indicated that the Wolverines would be capable of a beatdown like the one they delivered to Nebraska. Though they played a coward’s schedule (eight home, four away, copyright SEC), the fact is Big Blue is one Ohio State victory from a potential BCS at-large bid. I’d be stunned if this team got one, but you can’t discount the draw of Michigan.

20) Baylor

Welcome back, Baylor! Early in the season the Bears flashed potential, but after multiple losses and a couple of shaky wins the last two weeks I’d written them off. Lesson learned: don’t bet against RG3. Baylor did need some luck to knock off Oklahoma (did you SEE this play?!), but the way the Sooners have played this year you can’t just say this was a fluke.

21) Nebraska

Just when you thought Nebraska had things figured out… hard to pinpoint the most disappointing part of that four-touchdown shellacking the Cornhuskers got from Michigan, but high on the list would be the defense. I thought Bo Pelini coached this team? You expect hot-and-cold play from Taylor Martinez, not the Blackshirts. Nebraska has to face the reality that they’ve lost two of three and could have gone down to Penn State as well.

22) Tulsa

I said months ago that Tulsa was going to be good. Here we are at the end of the season, and the Golden Hurricane have ripped off seven straight. They’re undefeated in league play and host 11-0 Houston this week with the West title on the line. I have to say, I think Tulsa gets it done. They’ve played a tougher schedule than the Cougars and should be ready.

23) Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets have become the quintessential “good bad team.” In their last five games, the Ramblin’ Wreck lost close to Virginia (enjoying a renaissance under Mike London), lost to Miami (FL), upset then-undefeated Clemson, lost to Virginia Tech and narrowly beat Duke. In short, eh? I wouldn’t be surprised if Tech upsets Georgia this week, nor would I be surprised if they got blown out. It’s been that kind of a year.

24) Northern Illinois

Another close escape for NIU, who have turned shootout victories into an art this season. Though the MAC isn’t exactly tough competition, the Huskies have done everything in their power this season to get ranked. As I mentioned last week, the offense is extraordinary, and I’m very interested to see who this team draws in their bowl.

25) Notre Dame

Even with the win over Boston College I nearly dropped Notre Dame from my poll. BC is really bad and should have been an easy out for the Irish, who have won eight games but played it close with the better teams on their schedule. ND does have the weapons to give Stanford some trouble this week, but I’d still be surprised if they pulled off an upset this big.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Oh, Arizona State. What in the world is wrong with you? You had the South in hand a month ago and now you need major help to get in. The Sun Devils are on the opposite track of Utah, who after losing their first four Pac-12 games has won four straight. Key in those wins was a victory over current division leader UCLA (USC being ineligible). That means there are three teams who can still win the South going into the regular season’s final week. From a competitive standpoint, this is exactly what the conference wanted. From a realistic standpoint, with the best team ineligible, it’s a nightmare.

As Utah, ASU and UCLA have all played each other, we’re left with a very interesting mess. Utah beat (blew out, actually) UCLA, UCLA squeaked by ASU, and ASU crushed Utah. Right now the Utes and Sun Devils are both 4-4, while the Bruins are 5-3. However, UCLA also has by far the toughest opponent this Saturday in a road game at USC. Arizona State plays Cal and Utah plays Colorado, both at home, both on Friday. The following is what needs to happen for each team to clinch the South:

Utah: beat Colorado, ASU and UCLA both lose.

ASU: beat Cal, UCLA loses, Utah result irrelevant (Sun Devils hold tiebreaker).

UCLA: beat USC and clinch automatically, lose to USC and Utah and ASU both lose.

Although UCLA’s route is the most clear-cut, it’s the most difficult. I find it hard to believe this UCLA squad can beat USC, which means the Bruins will be 5-4 in conference play come Saturday. It seems safe to assume Utah will beat Colorado, which would move the Utes to 5-4 as well and eliminate UCLA. That means it all comes down to ASU, who would win the division with a win or hand it to Utah with a loss. I don’t know which Sun Devils team will show up Friday, so we’ll have to wait and see.

Thankfully, the North is much simpler. If Oregon wins the Civil War the Ducks win the North. If they lose, Stanford wins it (either North winner will host the championship). Though Oregon State showed some great character in beating back Washington last week, I’d be pretty shocked if the Beavers won this game. That means the inaugural conference title game will probably be Utah/ASU at Oregon. A month ago I would have said the Sun Devils had the South in the bag, but now I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on that Cal game. It would be pretty amazing if Utah came back from the dead (an 0-4 conference start) to win the division.

Heisman Watch

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Griffin is back to lead the non-Andrew Luck category. All he did last week was pass for a school-record 479 yards and four TD’s and lead the Bears in rushing with 72 yards on the ground.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Let us be thankful for rivalries, which continue this week after the nice appetizer we got last Saturday (once again, I believe it was me who predicted that there would be some great games on tap). In terms of pure hatred, though, this week’s slate far surpasses its predecessor. There will be entire generations’ worth of pent-up rage released, starting on Thanksgiving, when Texas and Texas A&M play what will be their final game in the foreseeable future. That one’s gonna be delightful. But it only gets better from there.

The Battle for the Golden Boot (Arkansas-LSU). The Backyard Brawl (West Virginia-Pitt). Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate (Georgia-Georgia Tech). The Iron Bowl (Alabama-Auburn). The Commonwealth Cup (Virginia-Virginia Tech). The Civil War (Oregon-Oregon State). The Border War (Missouri-Kansas). The Egg Bowl (Ole Miss- Mississippi State). The Apple Cup (Washington-Washington State). The Battle for L.A. (UCLA-USC).

That’s before you get to all the rivalries without official names, some of which rank among college football’s most heated, such as Ohio State-Michigan, Florida-Florida State, Clemson-South Carolina, Colorado State-Air Force and Boston College-Miami (FL). And hey, the renewed Colorado-Utah series starts up again this week with a new name: Rumble in the Rockies. What more could you possibly ask for? This, my friends, will be a weekend to remember.

The one where I rant about UCLA-USC

It was a decent day of football last Saturday, but overall I felt less than totally fulfilled. Maybe it was the excess of early Big 10 games (you like watching paint dry?) or the unappealing ranked matchups in the Big 12 and SEC. Maybe it was the fact that the MAC once again one-upped everyone during the week with another wild shootout. Maybe it was the sobering realization that the BCS is going to make people furious yet again.

The day’s later games offered some more fun – quadruple-overtime for KSU and A&M, Boise State shanking away another BCS bid, the underappreciated UCF-Southern Miss thriller – but in general the most-hyped contests failed to live up to their billing. Georgia annihilated overrated Auburn. Michigan shut down Illinois. USC crushed Washington. Oregon embarrassed Stanford. Unless you were rooting for one of those teams, there wasn’t much to get excited about.

I think the schedule should improve this week, which is why I’m so confused at ESPN’s proclamation that Saturday is a snooze-fest. Really? While the games involving good ranked teams are sprinkled throughout the day, the middle of November marks the beginning of rivalry games. This week features Boston College-Notre Dame, Vanderbilt-Tennessee, Arizona-Arizona State and Cal-Stanford. You may scoff at some of the teams there, but I respond, “For shame!” Rivalries are what make college football great, and the Territorial Cup/Duel in the Desert in particular is one of the sport’s nastiest. I think this has the potential to be a great week.

The potential chaos still to unfold is increasing each week. This season has run the gamut of crazy scenarios and isn’t even close to finishing. We’ve seen teams who look invincible suddenly lose (sorry, Stanford and Boise). We’ve seen teams who were seemingly down for the count rise back into the championship discussion (hello, Oklahoma and Oregon). Then there have been the constants, the stalwart squads able to ride out any challenge (obviously LSU and Oklahoma State). How the season will finish is anyone’s guess. All I know is it will be very interesting. And by the way, there are four MAC games before the weekend.

Top 25

1) LSU

A slow start was to be expected against Western Kentucky, but LSU did what they do best and turned it on after halftime to remain comfortably undefeated. After this week’s Ole Miss scrimmage the Tigers get Arkansas. I don’t see LSU having too much trouble with the Razorbacks, but there is precedent for an upset in the series.

2) Oklahoma State

Everyone expected the Cowboys to drop 50-plus on Texas Tech. No one expected them to shut out the Red Raiders offense. That was absolutely stunning. Tech has been a gold standard of offense in college football for a decade. Not allowing them a single point is incredible and speaks to the strides OSU has made in the past few seasons. The defense still isn’t elite, but for the first time I feel good about the Pokes versus rival Oklahoma.

3) Alabama

Guess who scored more on LSU than ‘Bama? Other than the obvious answer – everyone – the correct response is mighty Western Kentucky, just this past week. The Crimson Tide are clearly a team with a great defense and running back, but there’s nothing frightening about their offense. I sorely hope they don’t luck their way into the BCS title game.

4) Oregon

The Ducks had the most impressive win of the week, though Stanford made it look all too easy for them. Unfortunately, the fact that Oregon could have put up 65 on the Cardinal turned Stanford, in the eyes of the nation, into a fraud. That’s too bad, because there’s really only two teams I would pick to beat UO right now.

5) Oklahoma

Strange time for a bye, in my opinion. Coming off the nice victory over Texas A&M, the Sooners face Baylor and Iowa State before the Bedlam Game. I still like OU (they have a realistic outside shot at the BCS championship), but the loss of Dominique Whaley and Ryan Broyles could prove very costly.

6) Arkansas

It’s true that Arkansas could still win out and play their way into the championship game. But come on. Who is the best team the Razorbacks have beaten? South Carolina? Auburn? I don’t think this squad comes close to Alabama or LSU, which they should prove in just over a week’s time.

7) Clemson

I would have held the Tigers below Stanford (Wake Forest, after all, is no great win), but then I got to thinking about Stanford’s weakness: speed. Specifically, it’s offensive speed, the kind that Clemson has. No, they aren’t Oregon, but no one is. I’d wager the Tigers could score a decent amount on the Cardinal.

8) Stanford

When a team plays as well as Oregon did Saturday it’s unfair to punish the team they beat too harshly. I kept Stanford in the top ten because, let’s face it, the pickings ain’t too impressive this year. And after all, the Cardinal did win their first nine games. This isn’t a group of pushovers; just a team who got soundly beaten by an opponent whose greatest strength aligned with Stanford’s biggest weakness.

9) Boise State

Unbelievable. That finish in Boise? No, I’m talking about the fact that the minute I gave in and predicted an undefeated finish, the Broncos blew it again. You can take a lot of things away from TCU’s likely Mountain West-clinching upset, but the biggest one I saw was this: BSU’s back seven is mediocre. They do have an outstanding line, but an inability to stop explosion plays cost this team dearly.

10) Virginia Tech

Good win over Georgia Tech. Very solid. But as I look back at the Hokies’ schedule… eesh. The Yellow Jackets were the best squad VT has topped all season. The Coastal division will likely come down to the rivalry game with Virginia, but I would guess the Hokies have that one under control. The question now is whether the team can be more competitive with Clemson the second time around.

11) Houston

I moved the Cougars down a little from last week because I took a more critical look at their schedule. Obviously the Conference USA is no gauntlet, but I’d say it’s more challenging than say, the Mountain West. Even with a loss I’d take Boise State over Houston, but this is definitely the number two mid-major and they will play in a BCS bowl if they win out.

12) USC

Much like Houston, I took another look at USC and reevaluated my position. Then I went to ESPN.com the next day and read Ted Miller write about the same thing. Curse you, Ted. I’ll have to get these out faster. Although I’m picking Oregon to win this week, I had to move the Trojans up because I think they could smash a couple of these Big 10 teams.

13) Nebraska

I’m sorry, but isn’t it a little insulting that the BCS has Nebraska exactly one spot below Michigan State, a team they throttled? I’m on the record as a big Cornhusker-offense hater, but the overall talent of this team is undeniable and they are the best team in the Legends division. Unfortunately, the stumble against Northwestern will likely cost them a shot at the Rose Bowl.

14) Michigan State

Good one on you, MSU, for exorcizing those Iowa demons. The Hawkeyes aren’t world-beaters, but it was a solid victory. That said, I still see the Spartans in the same way I see Penn State and Michigan: teams who beat up on bad opponents and haven’t been seriously challenged by great squads. MSU has work to do yet to earn my respect.

15) Georgia

Let’s see… I had Auburn at a tentative number 25 last week, Georgia clobbered them… I had Georgia at 14… no, dropping the Bulldogs isn’t really fair. Thing is, they were only that high in the first place because I just didn’t have enough teams to put above them, and now I do (USC). Want to know how many teams with a winning record Georgia has beaten? Before last Saturday, the answer was none.

16) Kansas State

The magic semi-continues for K-State, who escaped with yet another single-digit win. The Wildcats have managed to beat some decent teams, so I have to give them some credit. Now for the bad news: they’ve given up 50 points in each of their last three games. I think Texas is very mediocre, but who knows how KSU will fare against the Horns after that grueling win over Texas A&M?

17) South Carolina

South Carolina survives for another week! The Gamecocks, um, gamely held off Florida to finish off their SEC slate. Considering Georgia has Kentucky this week, 6-2 probably isn’t going to get it done, which would be very embarrassing given how weak the East is this season. Spurrier is rumored to be on the way out as well. A changing of the guard may be coming to Columbia.

18) TCU

Jumping back into my rankings – and the Mountain West lead – is TCU, who has rebounded nicely after some nondescript play early in the year. Seriously, after that performance in the opener against Baylor, who could have seen this coming? Impressive that the Horned Frogs are in position to give the conference they’re leaving one last poke in the eye.

19) Michigan

The Wolverines could very well win out and play for the Big 10 title, but that scenario is extremely unlikely. It’s also possible that the defenses of Nebraska and Ohio State will humiliate UM in the next two weeks. I’m leaning toward the latter, though in any case I’m not looking forward to the Wolverines-Cornhuskers clash of offensive ineptitude we’re about to witness this Saturday.

20) Southern Miss

Survived a scare from UCF to climb to 9-1 and now face a pair of 2-8 squads to finish the season. I don’t want to jinx it, but I believe the Golden Eagles will play in the Conference USA championship. Though most mid-majors go the route of conference mate Houston to achieve success (all offense, air it out), USM has belied that formula in favor of solid defense. It’s working so far.

21) Notre Dame

Notre Dame was never really in contention for a BCS game after that awful start, but if not for some unreal red-zone sloppiness we could be talking about a 10-0 Irish team right now. I don’t think they’ll go out and upset Stanford in the finale, but they deserve a bit more respect than they’ve gotten.

22) Florida State

Much like Notre Dame, the Seminoles went through a rough stretch that cost them a chance at glory and dominated their lesser opponents. Aside from last week’s close win over Miami (FL) – which was a rivalry game, so be nice – FSU has been outstanding since falling to 2-3 in October. The three games they lost were by a total of 20 points. This isn’t a bad team by any means.

23) Baylor

Coming off a lucky comeback over putrid Kansas and about to be hammered by Oklahoma, the Bears won’t last long in my rankings. But if you’re going to look at every game, it’s worth noting that Baylor beat Mizzou, who just last week knocked off a Texas team who is inconceivably still in the top 25. We know what the Bears are: a great offense and a horrendous defense. Doesn’t mean they still couldn’t beat a lot of people.

24) Tulsa

Here are 7-3 Tulsa’s losses: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. The final scores in those games weren’t close, but they all came in a brutal four-week stretch to start the season. The Golden Hurricane have won every other game by an average of more than three touchdowns, with just one victory in single digits. It’s likely their season-ending clash with Houston will pit two ranked teams undefeated in league play.

25) Northern Illinois

It pains me to rank a team who lost to Kansas. But that’s why NIU is number 25. And to be honest, this team is just fun to watch. The Huskies’ offense is crazy-good, averaging over 40 a game. Quarterback Candler Harnish is a scary duel threat who has an outside shot at the second-ever 3,000-yard passing/1,000-yard season in FBS history (he’s sitting at 2594 and 1203 with three games to go). This has been the MAC’s best team the last two seasons.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Well, Oregon-Stanford played out more or less the way I expected, but we knew all along that the North champion would be one of those two. A far more interesting situation developed last week in the South, where UCLA, fresh off a potentially program-changing upset of Arizona State, was blown out at Utah. This opened the door for ASU to get right back into the driver’s seat after that frustrating collapse against the Bruins. Naturally, the Sun Devils then blew another game in a 10-point loss in Pullman.

The North is now in the hands of Oregon, who can clinch this Saturday or, with a loss to USC, still clinch against woeful Oregon State. I don’t see the Ducks losing, but the Trojans certainly present some problems. They’re easily the best passing team UO will face this year and feature some athletes defensively who could frustrate Oregon. In the end, I think the Ducks’ superior depth will win out, but USC is quite capable of winning this game.

The South has fallen into that nightmare scenario for the Pac-12, wherein it’s likely USC will win the division but be ineligible for the championship game. All season it seemed as if ASU had turned a corner (they did beat USC, after all), but after the last two weeks I’m not sure if the Sun Devils will win again. Meanwhile, eminently average UCLA has crept their way to the top of the division.

Considering that ASU could very well lose to rival Arizona this week, UCLA would seem to be in good position, but the Bruins still have to lose to – I mean play – rival USC. I have no idea what’s going to happen. By the way, you’d think UCLA would at least have an easy win this week against Colorado, but guess who the Buffaloes’ lone conference win came over. Was it the Arizona team that beat UCLA by 40? Interesting indeed.

Speaking of rivalries, since it’s reached that time of year, I’d like to bring up some of the Pac-12’s and also mention something that’s been bugging me for a while. Most people recognize that Oregon-Washington is the most heated rivalry in the league. As I mentioned earlier, Arizona-Arizona State is very nasty, and probably the second. Then there’s UCLA-USC, which manages to worm its way onto seemingly every list of college football’s best rivalries but is WITHOUT A DOUBT the most overrated rivalry in the country.

I want to be very clear about this: the Battle for Los Angeles is a stale, passionless, one-sided (in football) “rivalry” in name only, a decrepit relic of the halcyon days of West Coast football when only UCLA, USC and Washington mattered. It interests none of the city’s infamously bad sports fans and deserves absolutely no attention (which is what it usually gets in L.A.). The Big Game (Stanford-Cal) is better. The Civil War (Oregon-OSU) is better. Heck, UCLA-Cal is better. Even the mythical “Northwest Championship” between the Oregon and Washington schools (which is the best thing Rick Neuheisel ever did, and really needs a trophy) is more exciting than the Battle for the Victory Bell.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Are we seriously having a conversation about this? Trent Richardson? Are you freaking kidding me? Luck had a single so-so game against a defense playing their best ball of the year and got zero help from any of his receivers. It is unthinkable that this kid would not be named college football’s best player. Richardson over Luck would only be slightly more insane than Ingram over Suh.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I don’t have a whole lot of extras this week, but I did want to call attention to ESPN.com blogger Chris Low’s condescending recap of the LSU/Bama game, which he wrote after my post last week. I generally don’t mind him, but in this case he clearly saw a different contest than any rational person did. In that game, I saw a pair of elite defenses cow a couple of very average offenses. It’s time to stop pretending. Tt’s possible to have this both ways. The defenses of LSU and Alabama are excellent. It just so happens that their offenses are mediocre. Admitting this may, in turn, help us work out why so many SEC defenses are good: it’s the QB play. The best one in the conference is Georgia’s Aaron Murray. Who’s the second best? There’s no consensus; it fact, you have to think hard to even name another passable QB from the league.

I thought about this a lot since last week, trying to figure where Alabama’s A.J. McCarron would rank in another conference. Here’s where he’d stack up in the Pac-12:

Andrew Luck, Stanford; Matt Barkley, USC; Nick Foles, Arizona; Darron Thomas, Oregon; Brock Osweiler, Arizona State; Keith Price, Washington; Marshal Lobbestael and Jeff Tuel, Washington State; Jordan Wynn, Utah, then McCarron. Tenth. Yikes.

How about LSU’s Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson? I’d put them about seventh or eighth, right where Wazzu’s QB’s sit. Remember, these are the starting QB’s for unquestionably the best teams in the SEC. That is stunning, as well as a bizarre recruiting blunder. For years I’ve wondered why LSU couldn’t get a half-decent QB; now Bama is in on the action too. What’s with that? You’re telling me these powerhouses can’t land a single good signal-caller? (And if you say the name JaMarcus Russell, I will slap you in the face.)

A little trivia to end the day: I said Northern Illinois’ Chandler Harnish has a shot to become just the second-ever player to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the same season. Who was the first? Don’t look it up, that’s too easy. Think about it.

As a hint, I will say this: the player who did it is often called the first player to go for 2,000/1,000 in one season, which both undersells our mystery player’s accomplishment and is also several years late on the 2,000/1,000 achievement. That was Woody Dantzler of Clemson in 2001. Come on, people.

End of an era

First off, I know I missed last week, but it was unavoidable given my schedule. This post will be somewhat abridged as well, even though there’s much to talk about, with scandals breaking and we the people sitting between the two most important games of the season. Let the Facebook record show that I did eventually pick LSU over Alabama (and would have had them number one last week). As far as Oregon and Stanford are concerned, you’ll have to wait just a little longer.

On the field, the number of unbeaten teams can now be counted on one hand. Of those five, it’s likely that Houston and Boise State will be on the outside looking in when all is said and done, though Boise’s got a better shot than Houston (contingent on Georgia… but more on that later). Realistically, it’s LSU, Okie State and Stanford, with Oregon, Alabama and Oklahoma peering over their shoulders. LSU’s remaining road isn’t too treacherous. Oklahoma State’s is fairly tough. Stanford’s isn’t bad, except for this week.

This of course means that all three will lose and we’ll have ourselves another 2007-style madhouse. Every time you seem to think a team is untouchable, they go out and pull a West Virginia (lost to 4-7 Pitt) or an LSU (lost to 7-4 Arkansas). What I’m saying is that there’s a lot of season left; let’s see how it plays out.

Last week’s Friday game wasn’t the best (USC-Colorado), but the MAC has generously picked up the tab for midweek madness… and jumped out of an exploding aircraft with it, a la Michael Bay. The last two weeks have seen a pair of shootouts in the mid-60s, including some of the most exciting football I’ve ever seen. No defense, but what are you gonna do? As it turns out, we really don’t need basketball.

Top 25

1) LSU

Would have been in the top spot last week if I’d gotten a post out, now has far and away the best resume in the country. Yet I still wouldn’t consider them a lock over any of my other schools in the top eight.

2) Oklahoma State

The schedule should (read: should) be manageable, but that defense always gives me cause for pause. Ask Oklahoma how well Texas Tech can move the ball.

3) Boise State

Three of the last four games are at home… I think we can go ahead and call it, the Broncos are going 12-0. Will it be enough? Not without Georgia winning out and beating LSU. It’s a shame there’s no playoff.

4) Stanford

Shaky performances the last two weeks: an indicator that the Cardinal are looking ahead to Oregon, or an ill omen? We’re about to find out.

5) Alabama

Yeah, they took LSU to overtime. The Tide also scored the fewest points of any of the Tiger’s FBS opponents this year (tied with Mississippi State). The defense is great. The offense is decidedly not.

6) Oregon

Oregon’s below ‘Bama because I fear the Tide’s defense would chew up and spit out the Ducks’ spread attack. However, if UO beats Stanford, the ranking will change.

7) Oklahoma

Unfathomable that OU is ahead of Oregon in the BCS. After Texas Tech’s collapse, that loss looks pretty bad. After the Sooners’ win over Texas A&M, though, I feel they may rebound to beat OSU.

8) Arkansas

Arkansas is a top-ten team this season because there aren’t enough good teams to put in front of them. That is not an endorsement on my part of the Razorbacks; this a highly flawed team with no quality wins.

9) Clemson

After their blowout loss to Georgia Tech, the Tigers got a week off, which I hope they’ll use to fix their issues and finish strong. As long as they beat Wake Forest this week, they’ll win the division. Problem? It’s possible their old rival Tech will be waiting.

10) Houston

This is probably too high for DIVISION I ALL-TIME PASSING LEADER Case Keenum and Co., but I have to ride this as long as I can. I’m glad to see Keenum rebound from his 2010 injury and become the rightful owner of multiple records.

11) Virginia Tech

The Hokies have just one loss, but I (and honestly, the voters) need more convincing. What have you done for me lately, VT? Beating Georgia Tech tonight would be good.

12) Nebraska

I’m also not that hot on Nebraska, who deserves to be ranked lower after getting upset by Northwestern. But the Cornhuskers decisively beat Michigan State and accordingly need to be ranked higher than the Spartans.

13) Michigan State

Yes, MSU reaped the benefit of the Nebraska loss and are now ahead of the Huskers in the Big Ten standings. But the teams have identical records and Nebraska waxed the Spartans. Do the voters use Earth logic when they send in their ballots?

14) Georgia

Everything rides on this week’s game against Auburn. Win, and the Bulldogs are likely in the SEC title game. Good thing it’s at home. A loss would send the East into chaos (not to mention ugly mediocrity).

15) Wisconsin

As the victim of two extremely unlucky last-second miracle plays, Wisconsin deserves to be ranked higher. But it’s also a fact that the Badgers simply haven’t looked the same since thrashing Nebraska. Until they pick it up, they stay down here.

16) USC

Even though SC got beat soundly by Arizona State, it’s become apparent that the best representative for the South in the Pac-12 championship would be the Trojans. Too bad they’re ineligible.

17) Georgia Tech

After a midseason hiccup, Tech righted the Ramblin’ Wreck with an upset of Clemson. If the Yellow Jackets knock off Virginia Tech tonight, they’ll likely see the Tigers again in the ACC championship. That’s some good motivation.

18) Kansas State

They gave up 50-plus to both Oklahoma schools, but at least the Wildcats were able to get into a shootout with the Cowboys last week. A Big 12 title (never realistic) is now out of the question; how will K-State react?

19) South Carolina

The Gamecocks’ record isn’t terrible, but it belies how bad they’ve looked the last month. This squad is in a major adjustment period, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them go down to Florida.

20) Michigan

With Nebraska and Ohio State still on the schedule, last week’s loss to Iowa all but eliminated the Wolverines from Big 10 contention. Big Blue has been playing above their talent level this season and it seems to have caught up with them.

21) Penn State

I am so unconvinced by PSU’s record – accumulated against horrendous competition – I will call for them to lose all three of their remaining games (Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin). That’s before you account for the impact of the scandal.

22) Cincinnati

After the way West Virginia has fallen apart, Cincy can lose to the Mountaineers this week and still win the Big East. Looking around the conference, though… I’m not sure if a single team should be ranked in the top 40, let alone the top 25.

23) Southern Miss

USM has calmly been disposing of their league foes with the kind of methodical devastation rarely seen outside of Boise State. The closest any Conference USA team has come to the Golden Eagles is 18 points.

24) Auburn

I don’t know what Auburn’s playing for at this point. The SEC and national titles are out of reach, they’ve been outclassed in their division, and they’ve got quarterback issues. Time to get ready for 2012.

25) Texas

Unfortunately, Texas Tech getting blown out by Iowa State the week before diminishes the win over the Red Raiders. However, there’s no denying that was Texas’ best performance of the season.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Yeah, there’s USC-Washington, but this week is about the game we’ve been waiting all year for. Stanford wants to avenge their lone 2010 loss and Oregon wants to prove they’re still the top dogs in the conference. It’s a big reason Andrew Luck came back to school. GameDay is in Palo Alto and Stanford-Oregon is finally here.

I thought for a while about how I wanted to frame my prediction for the game, but then ESPN.com’s Ted Miller went ahead and beat me to it. All season I leaned toward Stanford – the Cardinal’s imposing offense looked like a perfect match to grind down the Ducks’ average defense. I didn’t expect Stanford to shut UO down defensively, but I figured they wouldn’t have to.

Over the last month, though, my feelings swung the other way. I started really looking at the teams Stanford beat, particularly the last two games. USC is good, but not great, and the Cardinal was fortunate to beat them. Oregon State is just bad, and the Beavs were in the game late until Stanford put it away.

I also watched Oregon step up with backup players against Arizona State. Then I re-watched the 2010 game that decided the Pac-10 championship. What struck me was how Stanford – just as in 2009, when they upset the Ducks on the Farm – needed everything to go perfectly in order to build an early lead and hang on.

Last year Stanford had one nice drive, then benefitted from two sloppy turnovers by Oregon to go up 21-3. From that point, though, they were outscored 49-10, and the field goal was also the result of a turnover. Although their offense was (and still is) quite potent, the Cardinal managed only two sustained scoring drives in the entire game. The common thread from both 2009 and 2010 was that Oregon gave Stanford some breaks early in the game, then ran wild. Two years ago Stanford managed to wear down the Ducks just enough to win; last season they ran out of steam.

On the other side of the ball, once Oregon got rolling in 2010 Stanford had no shot to stop them. That was also the case in 2009. I’ve said before that I don’t think Stanford and Oregon are as good as last year, but I think they’ve both dropped off relatively the same amount. I don’t see how the Cardinal defense has improved enough to slow down the Ducks. Certainly Oregon isn’t great defensively, and Stanford should score. But with Stanford reeling a little from injuries and Oregon starting to get healthy, along with Stanford’s lack of any real receivers other than their tight ends, I think the Ducks will be able to hold off the Cardinal.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Let’s see what the future top draft pick can do this weekend.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I stand by my previous statement regarding a rematch: remember Ohio State-Michigan. It doesn’t matter if it’s a shootout or a defensive struggle; both games were decided by three points. I will not endorse a rematch until no other undefeated teams remain, it’s that simple. Yes, Alabama held LSU to three field goals, one in overtime. But their offense looked pitiful. The Crimson Tide do not have elite skill position players at any position other than Trent Richardson, which is inexcusable for a team that is supposedly a BCS title contender. ‘Bama got their shot. They blew it. End of story.

So now we come to Penn State, dealing with the sudden and shocking news of sexual abuse of children by former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky. I can say very little about this developing story that hasn’t already been said. Joe Paterno and the school president have both been fired effective immediately, which is the only logical decision the board of trustees could have made. The support for Paterno from the student body isn’t surprising given how much of a mystique has been built around the man, but it ended up reflecting very poorly on the school when a minor riot broke out.

Obviously the allegations are horrifying, though what’s almost as shocking is the attempted backlash some Paterno supporters are trying to stir up. To anyone who would possibly not support his removal, read the indictment. If you still think Paterno did “enough,” there’s something seriously wrong with you. The whole affair is stunning and sickening, and speaks to the bubble within some universities operate. It’s likely that the majority of Penn State fans understand that the school and scandal are bigger than Paterno. But the ignorance of the minority, on display last night in State College, is what everyone will remember.