Wednesday, November 16, 2011

The one where I rant about UCLA-USC

It was a decent day of football last Saturday, but overall I felt less than totally fulfilled. Maybe it was the excess of early Big 10 games (you like watching paint dry?) or the unappealing ranked matchups in the Big 12 and SEC. Maybe it was the fact that the MAC once again one-upped everyone during the week with another wild shootout. Maybe it was the sobering realization that the BCS is going to make people furious yet again.

The day’s later games offered some more fun – quadruple-overtime for KSU and A&M, Boise State shanking away another BCS bid, the underappreciated UCF-Southern Miss thriller – but in general the most-hyped contests failed to live up to their billing. Georgia annihilated overrated Auburn. Michigan shut down Illinois. USC crushed Washington. Oregon embarrassed Stanford. Unless you were rooting for one of those teams, there wasn’t much to get excited about.

I think the schedule should improve this week, which is why I’m so confused at ESPN’s proclamation that Saturday is a snooze-fest. Really? While the games involving good ranked teams are sprinkled throughout the day, the middle of November marks the beginning of rivalry games. This week features Boston College-Notre Dame, Vanderbilt-Tennessee, Arizona-Arizona State and Cal-Stanford. You may scoff at some of the teams there, but I respond, “For shame!” Rivalries are what make college football great, and the Territorial Cup/Duel in the Desert in particular is one of the sport’s nastiest. I think this has the potential to be a great week.

The potential chaos still to unfold is increasing each week. This season has run the gamut of crazy scenarios and isn’t even close to finishing. We’ve seen teams who look invincible suddenly lose (sorry, Stanford and Boise). We’ve seen teams who were seemingly down for the count rise back into the championship discussion (hello, Oklahoma and Oregon). Then there have been the constants, the stalwart squads able to ride out any challenge (obviously LSU and Oklahoma State). How the season will finish is anyone’s guess. All I know is it will be very interesting. And by the way, there are four MAC games before the weekend.

Top 25

1) LSU

A slow start was to be expected against Western Kentucky, but LSU did what they do best and turned it on after halftime to remain comfortably undefeated. After this week’s Ole Miss scrimmage the Tigers get Arkansas. I don’t see LSU having too much trouble with the Razorbacks, but there is precedent for an upset in the series.

2) Oklahoma State

Everyone expected the Cowboys to drop 50-plus on Texas Tech. No one expected them to shut out the Red Raiders offense. That was absolutely stunning. Tech has been a gold standard of offense in college football for a decade. Not allowing them a single point is incredible and speaks to the strides OSU has made in the past few seasons. The defense still isn’t elite, but for the first time I feel good about the Pokes versus rival Oklahoma.

3) Alabama

Guess who scored more on LSU than ‘Bama? Other than the obvious answer – everyone – the correct response is mighty Western Kentucky, just this past week. The Crimson Tide are clearly a team with a great defense and running back, but there’s nothing frightening about their offense. I sorely hope they don’t luck their way into the BCS title game.

4) Oregon

The Ducks had the most impressive win of the week, though Stanford made it look all too easy for them. Unfortunately, the fact that Oregon could have put up 65 on the Cardinal turned Stanford, in the eyes of the nation, into a fraud. That’s too bad, because there’s really only two teams I would pick to beat UO right now.

5) Oklahoma

Strange time for a bye, in my opinion. Coming off the nice victory over Texas A&M, the Sooners face Baylor and Iowa State before the Bedlam Game. I still like OU (they have a realistic outside shot at the BCS championship), but the loss of Dominique Whaley and Ryan Broyles could prove very costly.

6) Arkansas

It’s true that Arkansas could still win out and play their way into the championship game. But come on. Who is the best team the Razorbacks have beaten? South Carolina? Auburn? I don’t think this squad comes close to Alabama or LSU, which they should prove in just over a week’s time.

7) Clemson

I would have held the Tigers below Stanford (Wake Forest, after all, is no great win), but then I got to thinking about Stanford’s weakness: speed. Specifically, it’s offensive speed, the kind that Clemson has. No, they aren’t Oregon, but no one is. I’d wager the Tigers could score a decent amount on the Cardinal.

8) Stanford

When a team plays as well as Oregon did Saturday it’s unfair to punish the team they beat too harshly. I kept Stanford in the top ten because, let’s face it, the pickings ain’t too impressive this year. And after all, the Cardinal did win their first nine games. This isn’t a group of pushovers; just a team who got soundly beaten by an opponent whose greatest strength aligned with Stanford’s biggest weakness.

9) Boise State

Unbelievable. That finish in Boise? No, I’m talking about the fact that the minute I gave in and predicted an undefeated finish, the Broncos blew it again. You can take a lot of things away from TCU’s likely Mountain West-clinching upset, but the biggest one I saw was this: BSU’s back seven is mediocre. They do have an outstanding line, but an inability to stop explosion plays cost this team dearly.

10) Virginia Tech

Good win over Georgia Tech. Very solid. But as I look back at the Hokies’ schedule… eesh. The Yellow Jackets were the best squad VT has topped all season. The Coastal division will likely come down to the rivalry game with Virginia, but I would guess the Hokies have that one under control. The question now is whether the team can be more competitive with Clemson the second time around.

11) Houston

I moved the Cougars down a little from last week because I took a more critical look at their schedule. Obviously the Conference USA is no gauntlet, but I’d say it’s more challenging than say, the Mountain West. Even with a loss I’d take Boise State over Houston, but this is definitely the number two mid-major and they will play in a BCS bowl if they win out.

12) USC

Much like Houston, I took another look at USC and reevaluated my position. Then I went to ESPN.com the next day and read Ted Miller write about the same thing. Curse you, Ted. I’ll have to get these out faster. Although I’m picking Oregon to win this week, I had to move the Trojans up because I think they could smash a couple of these Big 10 teams.

13) Nebraska

I’m sorry, but isn’t it a little insulting that the BCS has Nebraska exactly one spot below Michigan State, a team they throttled? I’m on the record as a big Cornhusker-offense hater, but the overall talent of this team is undeniable and they are the best team in the Legends division. Unfortunately, the stumble against Northwestern will likely cost them a shot at the Rose Bowl.

14) Michigan State

Good one on you, MSU, for exorcizing those Iowa demons. The Hawkeyes aren’t world-beaters, but it was a solid victory. That said, I still see the Spartans in the same way I see Penn State and Michigan: teams who beat up on bad opponents and haven’t been seriously challenged by great squads. MSU has work to do yet to earn my respect.

15) Georgia

Let’s see… I had Auburn at a tentative number 25 last week, Georgia clobbered them… I had Georgia at 14… no, dropping the Bulldogs isn’t really fair. Thing is, they were only that high in the first place because I just didn’t have enough teams to put above them, and now I do (USC). Want to know how many teams with a winning record Georgia has beaten? Before last Saturday, the answer was none.

16) Kansas State

The magic semi-continues for K-State, who escaped with yet another single-digit win. The Wildcats have managed to beat some decent teams, so I have to give them some credit. Now for the bad news: they’ve given up 50 points in each of their last three games. I think Texas is very mediocre, but who knows how KSU will fare against the Horns after that grueling win over Texas A&M?

17) South Carolina

South Carolina survives for another week! The Gamecocks, um, gamely held off Florida to finish off their SEC slate. Considering Georgia has Kentucky this week, 6-2 probably isn’t going to get it done, which would be very embarrassing given how weak the East is this season. Spurrier is rumored to be on the way out as well. A changing of the guard may be coming to Columbia.

18) TCU

Jumping back into my rankings – and the Mountain West lead – is TCU, who has rebounded nicely after some nondescript play early in the year. Seriously, after that performance in the opener against Baylor, who could have seen this coming? Impressive that the Horned Frogs are in position to give the conference they’re leaving one last poke in the eye.

19) Michigan

The Wolverines could very well win out and play for the Big 10 title, but that scenario is extremely unlikely. It’s also possible that the defenses of Nebraska and Ohio State will humiliate UM in the next two weeks. I’m leaning toward the latter, though in any case I’m not looking forward to the Wolverines-Cornhuskers clash of offensive ineptitude we’re about to witness this Saturday.

20) Southern Miss

Survived a scare from UCF to climb to 9-1 and now face a pair of 2-8 squads to finish the season. I don’t want to jinx it, but I believe the Golden Eagles will play in the Conference USA championship. Though most mid-majors go the route of conference mate Houston to achieve success (all offense, air it out), USM has belied that formula in favor of solid defense. It’s working so far.

21) Notre Dame

Notre Dame was never really in contention for a BCS game after that awful start, but if not for some unreal red-zone sloppiness we could be talking about a 10-0 Irish team right now. I don’t think they’ll go out and upset Stanford in the finale, but they deserve a bit more respect than they’ve gotten.

22) Florida State

Much like Notre Dame, the Seminoles went through a rough stretch that cost them a chance at glory and dominated their lesser opponents. Aside from last week’s close win over Miami (FL) – which was a rivalry game, so be nice – FSU has been outstanding since falling to 2-3 in October. The three games they lost were by a total of 20 points. This isn’t a bad team by any means.

23) Baylor

Coming off a lucky comeback over putrid Kansas and about to be hammered by Oklahoma, the Bears won’t last long in my rankings. But if you’re going to look at every game, it’s worth noting that Baylor beat Mizzou, who just last week knocked off a Texas team who is inconceivably still in the top 25. We know what the Bears are: a great offense and a horrendous defense. Doesn’t mean they still couldn’t beat a lot of people.

24) Tulsa

Here are 7-3 Tulsa’s losses: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. The final scores in those games weren’t close, but they all came in a brutal four-week stretch to start the season. The Golden Hurricane have won every other game by an average of more than three touchdowns, with just one victory in single digits. It’s likely their season-ending clash with Houston will pit two ranked teams undefeated in league play.

25) Northern Illinois

It pains me to rank a team who lost to Kansas. But that’s why NIU is number 25. And to be honest, this team is just fun to watch. The Huskies’ offense is crazy-good, averaging over 40 a game. Quarterback Candler Harnish is a scary duel threat who has an outside shot at the second-ever 3,000-yard passing/1,000-yard season in FBS history (he’s sitting at 2594 and 1203 with three games to go). This has been the MAC’s best team the last two seasons.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Well, Oregon-Stanford played out more or less the way I expected, but we knew all along that the North champion would be one of those two. A far more interesting situation developed last week in the South, where UCLA, fresh off a potentially program-changing upset of Arizona State, was blown out at Utah. This opened the door for ASU to get right back into the driver’s seat after that frustrating collapse against the Bruins. Naturally, the Sun Devils then blew another game in a 10-point loss in Pullman.

The North is now in the hands of Oregon, who can clinch this Saturday or, with a loss to USC, still clinch against woeful Oregon State. I don’t see the Ducks losing, but the Trojans certainly present some problems. They’re easily the best passing team UO will face this year and feature some athletes defensively who could frustrate Oregon. In the end, I think the Ducks’ superior depth will win out, but USC is quite capable of winning this game.

The South has fallen into that nightmare scenario for the Pac-12, wherein it’s likely USC will win the division but be ineligible for the championship game. All season it seemed as if ASU had turned a corner (they did beat USC, after all), but after the last two weeks I’m not sure if the Sun Devils will win again. Meanwhile, eminently average UCLA has crept their way to the top of the division.

Considering that ASU could very well lose to rival Arizona this week, UCLA would seem to be in good position, but the Bruins still have to lose to – I mean play – rival USC. I have no idea what’s going to happen. By the way, you’d think UCLA would at least have an easy win this week against Colorado, but guess who the Buffaloes’ lone conference win came over. Was it the Arizona team that beat UCLA by 40? Interesting indeed.

Speaking of rivalries, since it’s reached that time of year, I’d like to bring up some of the Pac-12’s and also mention something that’s been bugging me for a while. Most people recognize that Oregon-Washington is the most heated rivalry in the league. As I mentioned earlier, Arizona-Arizona State is very nasty, and probably the second. Then there’s UCLA-USC, which manages to worm its way onto seemingly every list of college football’s best rivalries but is WITHOUT A DOUBT the most overrated rivalry in the country.

I want to be very clear about this: the Battle for Los Angeles is a stale, passionless, one-sided (in football) “rivalry” in name only, a decrepit relic of the halcyon days of West Coast football when only UCLA, USC and Washington mattered. It interests none of the city’s infamously bad sports fans and deserves absolutely no attention (which is what it usually gets in L.A.). The Big Game (Stanford-Cal) is better. The Civil War (Oregon-OSU) is better. Heck, UCLA-Cal is better. Even the mythical “Northwest Championship” between the Oregon and Washington schools (which is the best thing Rick Neuheisel ever did, and really needs a trophy) is more exciting than the Battle for the Victory Bell.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Are we seriously having a conversation about this? Trent Richardson? Are you freaking kidding me? Luck had a single so-so game against a defense playing their best ball of the year and got zero help from any of his receivers. It is unthinkable that this kid would not be named college football’s best player. Richardson over Luck would only be slightly more insane than Ingram over Suh.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I don’t have a whole lot of extras this week, but I did want to call attention to ESPN.com blogger Chris Low’s condescending recap of the LSU/Bama game, which he wrote after my post last week. I generally don’t mind him, but in this case he clearly saw a different contest than any rational person did. In that game, I saw a pair of elite defenses cow a couple of very average offenses. It’s time to stop pretending. Tt’s possible to have this both ways. The defenses of LSU and Alabama are excellent. It just so happens that their offenses are mediocre. Admitting this may, in turn, help us work out why so many SEC defenses are good: it’s the QB play. The best one in the conference is Georgia’s Aaron Murray. Who’s the second best? There’s no consensus; it fact, you have to think hard to even name another passable QB from the league.

I thought about this a lot since last week, trying to figure where Alabama’s A.J. McCarron would rank in another conference. Here’s where he’d stack up in the Pac-12:

Andrew Luck, Stanford; Matt Barkley, USC; Nick Foles, Arizona; Darron Thomas, Oregon; Brock Osweiler, Arizona State; Keith Price, Washington; Marshal Lobbestael and Jeff Tuel, Washington State; Jordan Wynn, Utah, then McCarron. Tenth. Yikes.

How about LSU’s Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson? I’d put them about seventh or eighth, right where Wazzu’s QB’s sit. Remember, these are the starting QB’s for unquestionably the best teams in the SEC. That is stunning, as well as a bizarre recruiting blunder. For years I’ve wondered why LSU couldn’t get a half-decent QB; now Bama is in on the action too. What’s with that? You’re telling me these powerhouses can’t land a single good signal-caller? (And if you say the name JaMarcus Russell, I will slap you in the face.)

A little trivia to end the day: I said Northern Illinois’ Chandler Harnish has a shot to become just the second-ever player to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the same season. Who was the first? Don’t look it up, that’s too easy. Think about it.

As a hint, I will say this: the player who did it is often called the first player to go for 2,000/1,000 in one season, which both undersells our mystery player’s accomplishment and is also several years late on the 2,000/1,000 achievement. That was Woody Dantzler of Clemson in 2001. Come on, people.

2 comments:

  1. If Oregon wins out with the rest of the top 5 winning out, thus not being invited to the BCS championship game, do they still have an opportunity to be in a bowl game where winning is realistic? Because I still think the majority of fans believe that Oregon will only solidify itself as a top program if it manages to beat a top ranked opponent outside to conference. Can we expect a match-up where Oregon can clinch national respect? Even with the Stanford win, commentators were discrediting Oregon by claiming that Stanford hasn't faced any difficult teams, besides Oregon and under-the-radar USC.

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  2. Also to note, Oregon received a verbal commitment from an ESPNU 150 Byron Marshall, a running back from San Jose, Cal. Each win has given us another verbal commitment.

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