End of an era

First off, I know I missed last week, but it was unavoidable given my schedule. This post will be somewhat abridged as well, even though there’s much to talk about, with scandals breaking and we the people sitting between the two most important games of the season. Let the Facebook record show that I did eventually pick LSU over Alabama (and would have had them number one last week). As far as Oregon and Stanford are concerned, you’ll have to wait just a little longer.

On the field, the number of unbeaten teams can now be counted on one hand. Of those five, it’s likely that Houston and Boise State will be on the outside looking in when all is said and done, though Boise’s got a better shot than Houston (contingent on Georgia… but more on that later). Realistically, it’s LSU, Okie State and Stanford, with Oregon, Alabama and Oklahoma peering over their shoulders. LSU’s remaining road isn’t too treacherous. Oklahoma State’s is fairly tough. Stanford’s isn’t bad, except for this week.

This of course means that all three will lose and we’ll have ourselves another 2007-style madhouse. Every time you seem to think a team is untouchable, they go out and pull a West Virginia (lost to 4-7 Pitt) or an LSU (lost to 7-4 Arkansas). What I’m saying is that there’s a lot of season left; let’s see how it plays out.

Last week’s Friday game wasn’t the best (USC-Colorado), but the MAC has generously picked up the tab for midweek madness… and jumped out of an exploding aircraft with it, a la Michael Bay. The last two weeks have seen a pair of shootouts in the mid-60s, including some of the most exciting football I’ve ever seen. No defense, but what are you gonna do? As it turns out, we really don’t need basketball.

Top 25

1) LSU

Would have been in the top spot last week if I’d gotten a post out, now has far and away the best resume in the country. Yet I still wouldn’t consider them a lock over any of my other schools in the top eight.

2) Oklahoma State

The schedule should (read: should) be manageable, but that defense always gives me cause for pause. Ask Oklahoma how well Texas Tech can move the ball.

3) Boise State

Three of the last four games are at home… I think we can go ahead and call it, the Broncos are going 12-0. Will it be enough? Not without Georgia winning out and beating LSU. It’s a shame there’s no playoff.

4) Stanford

Shaky performances the last two weeks: an indicator that the Cardinal are looking ahead to Oregon, or an ill omen? We’re about to find out.

5) Alabama

Yeah, they took LSU to overtime. The Tide also scored the fewest points of any of the Tiger’s FBS opponents this year (tied with Mississippi State). The defense is great. The offense is decidedly not.

6) Oregon

Oregon’s below ‘Bama because I fear the Tide’s defense would chew up and spit out the Ducks’ spread attack. However, if UO beats Stanford, the ranking will change.

7) Oklahoma

Unfathomable that OU is ahead of Oregon in the BCS. After Texas Tech’s collapse, that loss looks pretty bad. After the Sooners’ win over Texas A&M, though, I feel they may rebound to beat OSU.

8) Arkansas

Arkansas is a top-ten team this season because there aren’t enough good teams to put in front of them. That is not an endorsement on my part of the Razorbacks; this a highly flawed team with no quality wins.

9) Clemson

After their blowout loss to Georgia Tech, the Tigers got a week off, which I hope they’ll use to fix their issues and finish strong. As long as they beat Wake Forest this week, they’ll win the division. Problem? It’s possible their old rival Tech will be waiting.

10) Houston

This is probably too high for DIVISION I ALL-TIME PASSING LEADER Case Keenum and Co., but I have to ride this as long as I can. I’m glad to see Keenum rebound from his 2010 injury and become the rightful owner of multiple records.

11) Virginia Tech

The Hokies have just one loss, but I (and honestly, the voters) need more convincing. What have you done for me lately, VT? Beating Georgia Tech tonight would be good.

12) Nebraska

I’m also not that hot on Nebraska, who deserves to be ranked lower after getting upset by Northwestern. But the Cornhuskers decisively beat Michigan State and accordingly need to be ranked higher than the Spartans.

13) Michigan State

Yes, MSU reaped the benefit of the Nebraska loss and are now ahead of the Huskers in the Big Ten standings. But the teams have identical records and Nebraska waxed the Spartans. Do the voters use Earth logic when they send in their ballots?

14) Georgia

Everything rides on this week’s game against Auburn. Win, and the Bulldogs are likely in the SEC title game. Good thing it’s at home. A loss would send the East into chaos (not to mention ugly mediocrity).

15) Wisconsin

As the victim of two extremely unlucky last-second miracle plays, Wisconsin deserves to be ranked higher. But it’s also a fact that the Badgers simply haven’t looked the same since thrashing Nebraska. Until they pick it up, they stay down here.

16) USC

Even though SC got beat soundly by Arizona State, it’s become apparent that the best representative for the South in the Pac-12 championship would be the Trojans. Too bad they’re ineligible.

17) Georgia Tech

After a midseason hiccup, Tech righted the Ramblin’ Wreck with an upset of Clemson. If the Yellow Jackets knock off Virginia Tech tonight, they’ll likely see the Tigers again in the ACC championship. That’s some good motivation.

18) Kansas State

They gave up 50-plus to both Oklahoma schools, but at least the Wildcats were able to get into a shootout with the Cowboys last week. A Big 12 title (never realistic) is now out of the question; how will K-State react?

19) South Carolina

The Gamecocks’ record isn’t terrible, but it belies how bad they’ve looked the last month. This squad is in a major adjustment period, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them go down to Florida.

20) Michigan

With Nebraska and Ohio State still on the schedule, last week’s loss to Iowa all but eliminated the Wolverines from Big 10 contention. Big Blue has been playing above their talent level this season and it seems to have caught up with them.

21) Penn State

I am so unconvinced by PSU’s record – accumulated against horrendous competition – I will call for them to lose all three of their remaining games (Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin). That’s before you account for the impact of the scandal.

22) Cincinnati

After the way West Virginia has fallen apart, Cincy can lose to the Mountaineers this week and still win the Big East. Looking around the conference, though… I’m not sure if a single team should be ranked in the top 40, let alone the top 25.

23) Southern Miss

USM has calmly been disposing of their league foes with the kind of methodical devastation rarely seen outside of Boise State. The closest any Conference USA team has come to the Golden Eagles is 18 points.

24) Auburn

I don’t know what Auburn’s playing for at this point. The SEC and national titles are out of reach, they’ve been outclassed in their division, and they’ve got quarterback issues. Time to get ready for 2012.

25) Texas

Unfortunately, Texas Tech getting blown out by Iowa State the week before diminishes the win over the Red Raiders. However, there’s no denying that was Texas’ best performance of the season.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Yeah, there’s USC-Washington, but this week is about the game we’ve been waiting all year for. Stanford wants to avenge their lone 2010 loss and Oregon wants to prove they’re still the top dogs in the conference. It’s a big reason Andrew Luck came back to school. GameDay is in Palo Alto and Stanford-Oregon is finally here.

I thought for a while about how I wanted to frame my prediction for the game, but then ESPN.com’s Ted Miller went ahead and beat me to it. All season I leaned toward Stanford – the Cardinal’s imposing offense looked like a perfect match to grind down the Ducks’ average defense. I didn’t expect Stanford to shut UO down defensively, but I figured they wouldn’t have to.

Over the last month, though, my feelings swung the other way. I started really looking at the teams Stanford beat, particularly the last two games. USC is good, but not great, and the Cardinal was fortunate to beat them. Oregon State is just bad, and the Beavs were in the game late until Stanford put it away.

I also watched Oregon step up with backup players against Arizona State. Then I re-watched the 2010 game that decided the Pac-10 championship. What struck me was how Stanford – just as in 2009, when they upset the Ducks on the Farm – needed everything to go perfectly in order to build an early lead and hang on.

Last year Stanford had one nice drive, then benefitted from two sloppy turnovers by Oregon to go up 21-3. From that point, though, they were outscored 49-10, and the field goal was also the result of a turnover. Although their offense was (and still is) quite potent, the Cardinal managed only two sustained scoring drives in the entire game. The common thread from both 2009 and 2010 was that Oregon gave Stanford some breaks early in the game, then ran wild. Two years ago Stanford managed to wear down the Ducks just enough to win; last season they ran out of steam.

On the other side of the ball, once Oregon got rolling in 2010 Stanford had no shot to stop them. That was also the case in 2009. I’ve said before that I don’t think Stanford and Oregon are as good as last year, but I think they’ve both dropped off relatively the same amount. I don’t see how the Cardinal defense has improved enough to slow down the Ducks. Certainly Oregon isn’t great defensively, and Stanford should score. But with Stanford reeling a little from injuries and Oregon starting to get healthy, along with Stanford’s lack of any real receivers other than their tight ends, I think the Ducks will be able to hold off the Cardinal.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Let’s see what the future top draft pick can do this weekend.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I stand by my previous statement regarding a rematch: remember Ohio State-Michigan. It doesn’t matter if it’s a shootout or a defensive struggle; both games were decided by three points. I will not endorse a rematch until no other undefeated teams remain, it’s that simple. Yes, Alabama held LSU to three field goals, one in overtime. But their offense looked pitiful. The Crimson Tide do not have elite skill position players at any position other than Trent Richardson, which is inexcusable for a team that is supposedly a BCS title contender. ‘Bama got their shot. They blew it. End of story.

So now we come to Penn State, dealing with the sudden and shocking news of sexual abuse of children by former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky. I can say very little about this developing story that hasn’t already been said. Joe Paterno and the school president have both been fired effective immediately, which is the only logical decision the board of trustees could have made. The support for Paterno from the student body isn’t surprising given how much of a mystique has been built around the man, but it ended up reflecting very poorly on the school when a minor riot broke out.

Obviously the allegations are horrifying, though what’s almost as shocking is the attempted backlash some Paterno supporters are trying to stir up. To anyone who would possibly not support his removal, read the indictment. If you still think Paterno did “enough,” there’s something seriously wrong with you. The whole affair is stunning and sickening, and speaks to the bubble within some universities operate. It’s likely that the majority of Penn State fans understand that the school and scandal are bigger than Paterno. But the ignorance of the minority, on display last night in State College, is what everyone will remember.