October, we hardly knew ye

Now THAT is why I love this game. Finally, a weekend full of nothing but entertaining, quality football. It’s been so long. There was an historic upset in Norman, a historic miracle in East Lansing and a historic moment for the record books in Houston. It was one of those magical Saturdays that make college football special. I can’t remember the last time in this sport that we got such a perfect day.

The greatness wasn’t limited to the weekend, either. We also got yet another exceptional Friday night, this time in Big East Country. West Virginia got absolutely spanked at Syracuse (really didn’t see that coming), which left Rutgers as one of just two teams still unbeaten in conference play. Naturally, the Knights then lost on the road to Louisville. What fun! This week there’s another potential barnburner when BYU travels to Fort Worth to take on former league rival TCU.

First, to the top ten, where a pair of teams went down. Neither Oklahoma nor Wisconsin went quietly, but when the dust had cleared both had lost control of their own destiny. Honestly, the Sooners were fortunate to even be in the game against Texas Tech, who suffered a mid-second half lull (probably assuming the game was over) that nearly cost them. The Badgers, on the other hand, were unlucky to lose to Michigan State on such a fluky play. However, it’s hard for me to have sympathy for Wisconsin after they made the unforgivable error of gifting the Spartans two timeouts.

With the BCS standings now in shake-up mode the questions have started rolling in. How soon until Boise State gets passed? What will happen if Stanford and Oklahoma State both win out? How does Clemson fit into the picture? Could Kansas State possibly make a run (I’ll nip that one in the bud right now – no)? Oklahoma’s loss does impact what I wrote before about the top three teams in the country, though now you can just plug in “State” after I wrote “Oklahoma” before and it all still works.

Top 25

1) Alabama

I had to think hard before giving the top spot to Alabama again. The poor first half against Tennessee was troublesome. At times, as I have expressly said, the ‘Bama offense just sputters. The skill talent outside of Trent Richardson is remarkably bereft of explosiveness. I’m truly not sure about how this team will put points on the board against LSU. During the week off before those two teams play, it’s highly possible I’ll decide to move the Crimson Tide down.

2) LSU

The defense is a hair behind Alabama’s, but the offense is certainly miles ahead of the Tide’s. As I said, it was tough for me to not move the Tigers up, but I do hold by my yearlong assessment that Auburn just ain’t that good. LSU proved that this week. Even so, I may be switching over to the Bayou Bengals in the LSU/’Bama argument. All year I’ve backed the Tide, but this is starting to feel like one of those seasons where everything breaks right for LSU. After all, it has been four years.

3) Boise State

It’s crunch time for Boise. After another uninspiring win, the Broncos have to start blowing people out to avoid being passed, and it still probably won’t be enough. If Oklahoma State and Stanford keep winning they will jump Boise. The schedule is just going to get too weak. But… there is still Georgia. The Broncos’ unimpressive Mountain West wins will be less noticeable if the Bulldogs can: a) best Florida this week, b) win the SEC East and c) …upset the West division winner? It sounds crazy, but you never know…

4) Oklahoma State

Strange as it sounds, I think the Oklahoma loss actually hurt OSU. The spotlight now shifts fully onto the Cowboys, which is something they’re not used to, and their win over OU in the Bedlam game would be diminished somewhat now that the Sooners have lost. Make no mistake, OSU still controls their own destiny, but the schedule isn’t easy and now their chief rival has gotten a wake-up call. The Cowboys have to hope they can match Oklahoma’s intensity from here on out, something they didn’t do for stretches against Missouri.

5) Stanford

That was easily the best Stanford has looked since beating Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Washington was able to keep up with the Cardinal early but succumbed to an avalanche of power runs and sharp passes. So is Stanford just amazing, or was Washington overrated? You have to think the Huskies were in over their heads, but the Cardinal are probably better than I gave them credit for. It was the first time all year they had looked the part of a championship contender, though.

6) Oregon

Oregon coasted after the first quarter against Colorado and gets another weakling this Saturday when staggering Washington State comes to town. The game against the Cougs will be a formality as the Ducks prepare for their two-game road trip in Seattle and Palo Alto. Like Stanford, I’m still having problems judging the Ducks. They’re much better than their overmatched opponents, but it’s hard to say if they’re really elite. On a good note, depth doesn’t seem to be a problem.

7) Clemson

If LSU isn’t this year’s “team of destiny,” then it’s definitely Clemson. After receiving some marvelous 2010-Auburn-style luck against Maryland last week, the Tigers got some timely breaks against North Carolina this week to turn a close game into a blowout. At times this team can look unstoppable, though their reliance on a West Coast-type short passing game could possibly hurt them as teams look to build on the Tar Heels’ success using the all-out blitz.

8) Michigan State

I’m not going to say that last play wasn’t lucky, because it was. However, MSU acquitted themselves well in this game, far better than I expected them to, which means they might really be ready to take the next step. It starts this week against Nebraska, a game the Spartans should win. I probably still wouldn’t pick MSU against Wisconsin in a Big 10 title game rematch, but as the 31-31 score with four seconds left showed, Sparty is at least Bucky’s equal.

9) Wisconsin

I put the Badgers and Spartans back-to-back because of how even that game was played, with just a miracle pass all that separated the teams. It’ll kill Wisconsin fans to hear it because the BCS title just went up in smoke, but all is not lost. The Badgers have a manageable schedule that could very possibly result in a second chance at MSU in Indianapolis. They’ve got to correct those killer lulls like they had against the Spartans, though. After going up 14-0, Wisconsin was outscored 31-3 until late in the game.

10) Arkansas

Arkansas is lucky to still be in the top ten, but fortunately for the Razorbacks they beat my number 11 team. I don’t know what was going on for two quarters there against Ole Miss. 17-0? You know the Rebels are terrible, right? Luckily, Arkansas realized it and woke up in time to squeeze out a 29-24 victory. They didn’t fool the computers, though, who dropped the Hogs from ninth to 10^th. I hope I’m not warming to the evil side of the BCS.

11) Texas A&M

The next three weeks are huge for the Aggies. After warming up against Mizzou this week, they go to Oklahoma and then Kansas State. That’s a fairly challenging trio. A&M is capable of winning them all, though. If they do get through that stretch, they could grab themselves a share of the conference championship if OU wins the Bedlam game. A&M’s season is far from over, and they could make a big statement to that effect against the Tigers this week.

12) Oklahoma

You can focus on the impressive comeback and the fact that the Sooners would have sent the game to overtime if not for a missed chip-shot field goal. I’m going to focus on the porous defense for the first three quarters and the fact that OU was lucky Texas Tech didn’t capitalize on all their opportunities and drop 60 on them. I mean, wow. When it was 31-7 it has hard to believe that was an Oklahoma team out there. The Sooners are going to have to regroup in a hurry if they want to win the league championship again.

13) Kansas State

I refuse to believe that this K-State team has been anything more than fortunate to scrape by with a bunch of close wins. I know that they have some quality victories, but it just feels like the Wildcats are due for a major thrashing. The schedule (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas) gets brutal over the next month, so we’ll finally get to see what KSU is made of starting this weekend.

14) Nebraska

After a win over Minnesota in which the Cornhuskers appeared at times to be toying with the Gophers, Nebraska gets Michigan State at home in a huge divisional showdown. Win, and anything’s still possible for Big Red. A loss would pretty much end any Big 10 championship dreams and likely sentence the Huskers to a fairly unexciting postseason destination. The Big 10’s probably not getting two BCS teams this year, so this week’s game could be the difference between the Rose Bowl and the Outback or Gator Bowl.

15) Houston

Case Keenum was marvelous against Marshall, completing 24 of 28 passes for six touchdowns. He broke Timmy Chang’s all-time total yardage record, with Chang’s passing yardage record and Graham Harrell’s passing touchdown record within reach in the next few games. Houston seems to have finally broken out and become the BCS-busting kind of team I expected them to be, though I don’t know what took them so long. That early-season slump they went through was dreadful.

16) Arizona State

Good time for a bye, Sun Devils. ASU was in danger of waking up on Sunday tied with UCLA in the South division. Then Arizona reminded us how silly that idea was when the Wildcats obliterated the Bruins. Strangely enough, it’s ASU’s rival ‘Zona who may pose the biggest threat to the Sun Devils’ chances of winning out, a concept that would have sounded ludicrous a couple weeks ago. Now I think Arizona will be ASU’s hardest remaining test.

17) Virginia Tech

A decent win over a really bad Boston College team – seriously, what happened to the Eagles? – didn’t do much to sway me on the Hokies. I’m looking at the rest of their schedule and don’t see a whole lot there that scares me (Georgia Tech possibly, but the Yellow Jackets are in free-fall), but the ACC is just so thoroughly average that it’s hard to get excited about even a one-loss Tech squad.

18) Texas Tech

Have I not been saying that Texas Tech is a good team? Validation is a great thing. The win over Oklahoma probably won’t go down as the biggest victory in program history – that honor still goes to the win over top-ranked Texas in 2008 – but it should go down as the biggest upset in Red Raider history, considering the game was in Norman and Tech was unranked. Seth Doege is just another in a long line of brilliant Air Raid system quarterbacks.

19) USC

I was completely ready to dismiss USC’s 5-1 record because they hadn’t really beaten anyone, but that was an eye-opener. Even at 4-3 I think Notre Dame is decent, but the Trojans played outstanding football and beat the Irish by two TD’s. A very impressive performance. Could SC knock off Stanford this week? It’s not out of the question, but after the Washington game I’m not about to pick against the Cardinal.

20) West Virginia

I’m banking on the Syracuse game being a fluke more than anything else, because that was awful. WVU showed some chops against LSU this year, so I know the Mountaineers aren’t just a bunch of overrated scrubs, but they’ll have to shape up if they want to win the Big East. It’s a true wild-card conference, and while the ‘Eers are good, they’re not good enough that they can coast each week and still walk away with the title.

21) South Carolina

Now we see what the Gamecocks did on their bye week. The three remaining SEC opponents – Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida – all have flaws. Some significant. Even with the loss of their starting QB and RB, it’s possible that South Carolina could go 2-1 (I’m not holding out hope for that Arkansas game). But if they collapse in the wake of losing their two stars, 0-3 isn’t out of the realm of possibility at all. Georgia’s probably going 2-1 at least, so the Gamecocks need to beat Tennessee this weekend.

22) Baylor

I want to still have faith in Baylor. I want to believe their losses are the result of a difficult schedule and a tough conference. It’s undeniable, though, that the Bears have been sliding the past couple of weeks. In all likelihood, they’ll lose to Oklahoma State this week and drop out of my rankings, then return two weeks later after beating Kansas and Missouri. But I also want to keep the faith in Robert Griffin, who poses some interesting problems for that average OSU defense.

23) Penn State

I really don’t think Penn State is any good, but I ran out of teams to rank. The Nittany Lions are 7-1, but look at their wins. They haven’t beaten a single FBS team (not counting Eastern Michigan, and I won’t) by more than 10 points, and the 10-point win was last week against 2-5 Northwestern. The seven teams they’ve beaten have a combined 15 total wins over other FBS schools, most of those coming against the MAC. The Nittany Lions only average 23 points a game. Yet they sit at 4-0 in Big 10 play, so more power to ‘em, I guess.

24) Southern Miss

Scoff if you will – I certainly did when I saw the Golden Eagles in the Coaches’ Poll – but USM’s record isn’t any worse than Penn State’s. At 6-1, this team has wins over Virginia (Georgia Tech couldn’t do that) and a red-hot SMU team who had previously won five straight. Put it this way: Navy has four losses by a total of eight points. Their other loss was to Southern by 28. By most metrics I use, this seems like a pretty solid team.

25) Georgia

Georgia is not a team I’m fond of. As with Penn State, I think they’ve beaten absolutely no one to justify being ranked. To see what I’m talking about with the schedule, here you go: after losing their first two, the Bulldogs beat… Coastal Carolina. A really terrible Ole Miss squad. A bad Mississippi State team. A below-average Tennessee team. And Vanderbilt, yet again the SEC’s whipping boy. Boy, looks like a top-25 worthy team to me! Unfortunately, once again I’m pretty much out of teams, and I’ll be damned if I’m going to hand over an inflated ranking to Texas or Florida.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Looks like all Arizona needed was to get that angry baboon off their backs, eh? That Thursday night performance against UCLA was off-the-charts awesome. True, UCLA’s weakness (no offense) played right into the Wildcats’ hands. Er, paws. But that shouldn’t demean the effort by ‘Zona, who led 48-7 midway through the fourth quarter in a game that very likely will get a second Pac-12 coach canned. I know the Bruins’ AD gave Neuheisel a vote of confidence, but if UCLA doesn’t get to a bowl he’s gone.

Oregon State, USC and Cal all also put up nice wins, even if some of the competition wasn’t top-notch. For OSU, getting the blowout over Wazzu was, at the least, a big confidence builder in a revenge scenario. Cal only beat Utah, but the Bears were so starved for a victory that even a win over an injury-riddled team who appears to have lost hope was a cause for celebration. Then there was USC, who broke open their tight contest with Notre Dame with a hilariously ill-timed (for the Irish) defensive TD and rode the ensuing momentum to the game’s end. I can’t stress enough how badly the conference needed that win.

Of course, the semi-shocker was the ease with which Stanford dealt with Washington. Speaking as someone who was foolish enough to think the Huskies had a chance to be competitive, whoa. As I said last week, I wasn’t totally sold on UW, but I thought the Cardinal’s paper-thin resume to this point warranted some healthy skepticism about the players around Andrew Luck. Stanford apparently knew there were doubters, because they abused the Dogs back to also-ran status. The only remaining issue I have is the fact that Washington’s defense is really bad… but let’s not taint this. An impressive showing by the Tree.

This week we finally get to see all 12 conference teams in action against each other for the first time. There’s an interesting hodge-podge of games both competitive and ugly. Oregon and Arizona State are at home facing bottom-feeders WSU and Colorado, respectively. Not a lot of excitement there. On the other hand, Oregon State-Utah and Cal-UCLA are two intriguing contests where I don’t see a whole lot of difference between the opponents. And how about Stanford-USC? Can I talk myself into a Trojans upset? There’s no way the Cardinal stumble here, right? But… it is in the Coliseum, at night… USC has been playing well lately... no. I can’t do it. Not after what Stanford did last week.

The final game of the day is in Seattle, where newly humbled Washington meets Arizona. The teams have opposite records (UW’s 5-2 to ‘Zona’s 2-5), but I could see this one going either way. The Wildcats are coming off an emotional win, the Huskies off an emotional loss. Even with suspensions, Arizona should be able to move the ball on Washington’s beleaguered D. Then again, everyone’s been able to move the on Arizona, so there ought to be a lot of scoring on both sides. Should be a fun game.

Heisman* Watch

Robert Griffin was off, Kellen Moore had a so-so outing and I don’t want to jinx Case Keenum. No one deserves to be mentioned in the same category as *Luck this week.

Random Thought and Observations

Missouri is continuing their “will-they-won’t-they” dance with the SEC, which is reportedly ready to admit the Tigers. Everybody around this relationship is tired and embarrassed at this point and just wants to see the two get together already. By all accounts the Big 12 has made preparations for life without Mizzou (gasp) and is ready to invite West Virginia immediately, along with a couple of the Mountaineers’ current league members. Kinda spreads the conference out, but whatever. At this point, anything that just finishes off the Big East and ends the “we can still save this thing!” charade is fine by me. Really, it’s a shame the Big East is dying. Just not in football.

Perception isn’t always reality in sports. How else do you explain upsets? But perception can mean something, and rarely is it more important than in college football. In football, terms like “soft,” “slow,” “undisciplined” or “scared” can become entrenched in both the public mindset and in a team’s psyche. When Texas A&M started to give up a huge halftime lead to Arkansas last month, everyone on the sidelines, in the stands and around the country was thinking “Here we go again.” The Aggies, fresh off their embarrassing meltdown against Oklahoma State, clearly felt it too and fell apart again.

The Big 10 has been mocked for years as a slow conference because of its playing style, which is not reflective of the actual team speed of the league’s members. The Pac-10 was often called soft in the early 2000s, even though several high-profile bowls proved that the West could play just as physical as anyone. The Big East… well, the Big East has proved itself to be pretty bad lately, but has also had some huge BCS upsets as well.

My point in bringing this up is to put the spotlight on one team. This team has been touted as nigh-unstoppable in the regular season multiple times and has been defeated multiple times in BCS bowls against elite competition. Because of this, this team has gained a paper tiger reputation, unable to win when it really matters. I’m talking of course, about Ohio State. Just kidding! I’m talking about the new Ohio State, Oregon!

As much as Oregon fans won’t want to hear it, the truth is that there are some striking parallels between the two schools. Ohio State was nationally trashed from 2006 to 2009, not coincidentally a span in which the Buckeyes lost to Florida in the BCS Championship Game, lost to LSU in the same game and lost to Texas in the Fiesta Bowl. Looking back now, it’s obvious Ohio State ran into some really good teams and just got beat, which is nothing to be ashamed of. But at the time, the nation’s fury was directed at OSU for being “overrated.” I should know; I said it too. Often. In the end, the Buckeyes didn’t regain their reputation until they won a BCS bowl, also not coincidentally…

…against Oregon. Beating the Ducks in the 2009 Rose Bowl was a huge step for OSU, who then went on to defeat Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl last year. Now, there have been some extenuating circumstances with the Ohio State program since, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t increase national respect for their play (and hey, Oregon’s got off-field issues, too. More parallels! Parallels for everyone!). The point is, Oregon has now suffered the exact same amount of high-profile losses as Ohio State, if you count the loss to LSU. If Oregon is on the same trajectory as OSU – and after what happened to Jim Tressel, let’s hope to God they’re not, but play along – at the end of this season the Ducks could be in line to pass along the “overrated” label to another team.

So who’s it going to be? Nebraska or Michigan State, whom Oregon could potentially see in the Rose Bowl? I suppose UO could make an at-large BCS bowl by running the table but losing to ASU in the Pac-12 title game, which could mean anyone – Clemson, Okahoma, or even a rematch with LSU (don’t think the bowl-makers wouldn’t jump on that in a heartbeat). If the Ducks do make a BCS bowl again, though, they’ll be due. Their opponent had better be ready to bear the nation’s “overrated” wrath. Until they win, though, Oregon is new Ohio State. And they’ll have to live with that stigma for at least a little while longer.

Brief notes: The brawl in the Arizona-UCLA game was tacky and could get people fired, but I think it was probably just what the Wildcats needed to prove to themselves that they weren’t going to lie down against teams anymore… The “Boston Globe” apparently reported that the Big East was looking to invite the entire Mountain West/Conference USA conglomerate to create a 30+ team bizarro-league that stretched across the entire continent. I hope the Big East wasn’t that desperate, because it would be really pathetic… Yes, Oregon could play LSU again, I just didn’t want to explain it in detailed fashion above, so here goes: Alabama beats LSU for the BCS title game spot, Oklahoma State runs the table and joins the Tide. LSU gets a Sugar Bowl invite, Oklahoma goes to the Fiesta Bowl (replacing Oklahoma State), Clemson runs the table but settles for the Orange Bowl and ASU upsets Oregon for the Pac-12 title and the Rose Bowl. The Big 10 sends Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl after the Badgers beat MSU in a rematch, leaving Big East champ West Virginia (automatic bid), Oregon and undefeated Boise State to fill the last three spots. The selection order this season is Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, so the Orange Bowl takes West Virginia for a regional battle with Clemson and the Sugar Bowl delightedly takes UO against LSU so that Boise can battle Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl again. Fun stuff, see you next week…