Thanksgiving Week Answers

National Overview

And the Lord said, "Let there be clarity." After weeks, nay, months of confusion, the conference races fell into simple alignment across the nation on Saturday. Only one league - the Conference USA - has any doubt left regarding its championship determinants. Let's start with the mid-majors (I'll even put the conferences in order from weakest to strongest the way I seem them):

Troy will win the Sun Belt even with a loss in the next game by virtue of their win over second-place Middle Tennessee State. I laugh at the Sun Belt a lot, and rightfully so, but I've followed the Trojans a bit over the last few years and feel confident that they're actually pretty good.

Boise State and Nevada are both undefeated in WAC play, thus their game this week will decide the conference title. Nevada has an unbelievable rushing attack - the Wolf Pack just became the first team in NCAA history to have not one, not two, but three 1,000-yard rushers in a season - but I just can't see how the Broncos could possibly lose to them. If Notre Dame could beat Nevada 35-0, BSU should probably be OK.

Central Michigan and Temple are both 7-0 in the MAC and will meet in the conference championship game regardless of what each team does in the regular season finales. I like Central Michigan and QB Dan LeFevour a lot, even going so far as to rank them this season. Still, Temple is having a miracle year, their greatest ever, and many are wondering if they might not be destined to win out (more on the Owls, yes, the Owls, later).

In the Conference USA, Houston is poised to take the West division provided they handle woeful Rice in their last game, which they should. If they should lose, though, SMU - the same SMU that gave Washington State its only win - will claim the division. East Carolina and Southern Miss play this week to determine the East winner. Houston has proved to be the most talented team in the conference, but the Cougars have also shown themselves to be vulnerable to mental lapses. It's anyone's guess who will win this league.

The Big East, while not a mid-major conference, has performed like one this season, which is why I ranked it below the Mountain West. The chase for the title has been a two-team affair all season, with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh set to conclude their epic duel on December 5th. I do like both those teams, by the way. It's just that the rest of the Big East is so weak. The fact that its members play only a seven-game conference slate - the shortest of any league - contributes to this, as most of schools play one if not two FCS opponents and fare poorly in big-game nonleague play.

The Mountain West could be even stronger were it not for its collection of cupcakes at the bottom. As it stands now, Utah, BYU and TCU have raised the bar for all mid-major teams and really improved the reputation of the conference in general. The Horned Frogs have clinched the title thanks to their wins over the Utes and Cougars, though there's still a great game left with those two battling it out for second place this week.

The poor, embattled Big Ten decided its champion last week when Ohio State beat Iowa, but the Buckeyes made it super-official with a win over Michigan Saturday. The question now is whether 10-2 Iowa or 10-2 Penn State can snatch up an at-large BCS bid. I, of course, would respond with a resounding please-God-no, but that's just me. More on the Big 10's BCS chances later.

It seems strange to think the Big 12 could be only the fourth-best conference after all the preseason love it got, but that's where we stand after the overall dismal quality of play this year. Not one team lived up to its expectations, including undefeated Texas. The Longhorns have wrapped up the South division because there wasn't a legitimate challenger, but they had to wait until this week to see who they would play in title game because no one seemed to want to win the North. With a win over Kansas State Saturday, Nebraska earned the right to play for a BCS bid, but it would truly be shocking to see the Cornhuskers beat the Horns.

It's also odd to think of the ACC as the third-best conference, but the league has earned it this year. The usual near-universal mediocrity is present again, but this year more teams than usual managed to rise above the pack. The Coastal division alone has four strong squads in Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and North Carolina, and Clemson in the Atlantic has finished the season as one of the hottest teams in the country. It feels weird to say, but we may be headed for a very good ACC championship game.

The SEC, of course, has had the worst race of any conference this season, as Florida and Alabama cakewalked to 8-0 records and easy title game berths. In retrospect, it's actually remarkable how simple it was for the Tide and Gators: aside from 'Bama's week one win over a good but not great Virginia Tech team, the only ranked opponent the teams played was LSU, who they both beat. Why the voters have deemed these schedules worthy of the top rankings is another issue entirely.

Finally, the Pac-10, which concludes its wild and highly entertaining fight for the Rose Bowl December 3rd in the Civil War. Going into last weekend five teams (half the league!) still had a shot at the title. Oregon State ended USC's hopes with a predictable victory over WSU, Cal stunned red-hot Stanford in the Big Game, and Oregon outlasted Arizona in the back-and-forth, crazy-go-nuts, double-overtime game of the year. Now, for the first time ever, the winner of Oregon-Oregon State will be ensured a spot in the Granddaddy of Them All as the Pac-10 champion.

On the polls

There's a distinct Pac-10 flavor to my poll this week, although that's fair if you accept that its the best conference in the nation. The gaps in logic from the voters are still baffling to me. LSU lost to unranked Ole Miss and fell from eighth to fifteenth, while Stanford lost to ranked Cal and went from fourteenth to unranked. This makes sense if you remember that LSU was supposed to be great and rank them accordingly, but it's outrageous by any other measure.

1) Texas

Texas is doing what it's supposed to do, no more and no less. The opponents have been weak, but the results have been blowouts. There's certainly danger in the upcoming rivalry game with Texas A&M, but there haven't been any signs that the Horns are on the verge of an upset. The question is, how can Texas turn it on again in the BCS title game after playing so many bad teams?

2) Alabama

'Bama whaled on Chattanooga this week as the country gave a collective "So what?" The rivalry game with Auburn this week should be a mere formality as the Tide look ahead to the SEC championship game with Florida. They should be extra motivated after last year's loss kept them out of the BCS title game.

3) Florida

Florida looked alive for the first time in a while, but the caveat is that it came against Florida International. Urban Meyer can spin it anyway he wants, but the Gators have struggled to move the ball against every halfway decent team they've played. Can they find themselves against rival FSU and then claim another SEC title?

4) TCU

After an early 10-10 tie, the Horned Frogs shredded Wyoming Saturday. It appears TCU is playing for style points now, because the Mountain West is wrapped up and an undefeated season would be rewarded with a BCS bowl. It's still a long shot... but if Texas loses, TCU could find themselves in the national championship game.

5) Cincinnati

The idle week should have helped the Bearcats. The game this week versus Illinois should too. With two games left, Cincy has a great chance to go back-to-back in the Big East, but they'd be the first to tell you that goal is still a long way off. You can probably pencil in a win against the Illini, and then it's gloves off for the heavyweight fight with Pitt.

6) Georgia Tech

Even though Georgia is way down, I'm still pumped for their game with the Yellow Jackets this week. Tech has been on an unstoppable roll and now they've had a week off to prepare for their rival. The focus is on the ACC title game with Clemson, true, but there's always a good excuse to watch the flexbone go.

7) Boise State

The Broncos beat up Utah State Friday, but it goes without saying a lot of people are still not convinced. The shame is that BSU is a good team, but it's hard to have sympathy for them when they play a bunch of glorified high school squads. Can they beat out Iowa or Penn State for an at-large BCS bid? Word is that's the way the selection committees are leaning.

8) Pittsburgh

I didn't think it was fair to move Oregon over Pitt because the Panthers didn't play. They'll get a chance to prove themselves against a decent West Virginia team this week, and then it's off to the showdown with Cincy. Pitt was on such a roll before their bye it's fair to wonder if taking a week off actually hurt them.

9) Oregon

The Ducks got lucky, but they also showed a lot of heart in beating Arizona. They whole team, but particularly the defense, desperately needs the bye they're about to get. The Civil War is about to go nuclear and Oregon had better be ready. With that said, this team is still 7-1 in the Pac-10 and in great position to go to the Rose Bowl.

10) Ohio State

It was a rivalry game, so I guess the close Michigan score shouldn't weigh too heavily against the Buckeyes. Questions about the team - and the conference - abound, though. Is Ohio State really good, or did they just play an easy schedule? I feel like I've asked this before. It's worth noting that the Big 10 champion lost at home to the fifth-place Pac-10 team.

11) Oregon State

Wazzu is pretty bad and OSU didn't give them a prayer. Who will come out on top in the epic Civil War showdown? Both Oregon and OSU have a week off beforehand, which has been crucial for the winner the past two years. Oregon State seems to be peaking right on schedule and the Beavers would to pay back their rivals for the debacle in Corvallis last season.

12) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys have sleepwalked their way to 9-2, beating no one and losing to the two good squads they've seen. I generally support a lower-profile Big-12 program like Okie State, but I'm hoping that the Pokes go down to Oklahoma in the Bedlam game so they don't pick up a very undeserved BCS bowl bid.

13) Clemson

The win over Virginia wasn't too spectacular, but it's worth noting that the Tigers already had the division wrapped up with Boston College's loss earlier in the day. Clemson has been great over the past month and I cannot stress enough how much I'm looking forward to the Georgia Tech rematch in the ACC title game.

14) Virginia Tech

The Hokies have disappointed this season, it's true. But with a win this week, they could salvage a 9-3 record and pick up another ten-win season in their bowl. VT has been the ACC standard for the past several years, so there's no reason to think they can't finishe strong and rebound in 2010.

15) BYU

The Cougars finally looked like their old selves this week, smashing Air Force in preparation for their rivalry game with Utah. That matchup has lost some of its luster, but with second place in the conference and a decent bowl on the line it should still be a heated, fun affair. Both teams lost big to TCU, but Utah lost bigger. Right now, I'll take BYU.

16) LSU

Karma finally caught up to LSU and Les Miles, as the Tigers got jumped by Ole Miss Saturday. LSU's cred is quite questionable at this point. Their best win is still over a mediocre Georgia squad and they've played several close games with bad teams. Their biggest accomplishments to date are their losses to Florida and Alabama. Impressive.

17) USC

For the Trojans' sake, let's hope they did some soul-searching on their week off. It's official: the Rose Bowl is finally out of reach. But the Pac-10 is still a mess in its second tier, and USC might be rewarded with a Holiday Bowl berth if they win out. The UCLA game ought to be a breather, but the finale with Arizona could be a crazy one.

18) North Carolina

UNC has been so impressive over the last few weeks. If they'd only started the year better, they could have lived up to the preseason hype. As it stands, though, the Tar Heels can potentially finish with ten wins. That's pretty solid for a team that lost three of four in the middle of the year.

19) Penn State

So your name is Penn State. You just blew out rival Michigan State, but the Spartans are 6-6. You lost to the top two teams in your conference and your best win is over 8-4 Northwestern. Your schedule strength is abysmal. Yet you're ranked in the top fifteen in the BCS and are being talked about as a probable BCS bowl team. Thank someone, because you sure don't deserve it.

20) Utah

I've seen Utah several times, including once in person, and I have to say they're just not very impressive. To be sure, they deserve top-25 status, but this isn't the same team as last year. I think BYU is going to beat them fairly handily this week and the Utes will have to play for a ranking in their bowl game.

21) Miami (FL)

They came away with a sizable win, but the 'Canes looked real shaky for a couple quarters against Duke. The wheels have come off a little, but as I said last week, that might not be such a bad thing if Miami can turn this year into a lesson for the next. By the way, a 10-3 record with that schedule is totally respectable.

22) California

Look who's back from the dead! Cal rumbled back into the national picture with a gritty upset of Stanford and has now won five of six to close the year. The Pac-10 season started with major disappointment for the Bears, but now they're right back to where the realists projected them: third or fourth in the conference. They deserve credit for not giving up on the season.

23) Houston

The Cougars are going to hover around the bottom half of the rankings for the rest of the year, but that shouldn't take away from what they've accomplished in 2009. If not for a couple of defensive meltdowns, Houston could have been undefeated and mentioned in the same breath as TCU and Boise State.

24) Arizona

Like I said, it's unbelievable that the Cats could drop out of the rankings following an touchdown loss to Cal and a double-overtime loss to Oregon. Those are two quality losses, and 'Zona beat Oregon State too. They should be back in the rankings by season's end, or something is very wrong with the voters. But what else is new?

25) Stanford

Someone finally figured out how to slow down the Cardinal: give Toby Gerhart his 100 yards and hope Andrew Luck has a bad game. It worked for Cal, but you've got to think Stanford's going to be angry following the loss of not only the Big Game, but a shot at the Rose Bowl. I fear for their next opponent, which happens to be... Notre Dame. Life is sweet.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I just shake my head and grimace when I hear Iowa and Penn State are considered the leaders for one of the coveted at-large BCS bids. Didn't we see both these teams get exposed? Iowa by Ohio State and Northwestern, Penn State by Iowa themselves. Please, take a look at their schedules and tell me where the quality wins are. The best team Penn State beat on their pillowy-soft schedule was Northwestern, while the best team Iowa beat out of their delicious cupcake meal was Penn State. How can people possibly be suckered into giving the Big 10 two BCS bids again? If you look at the historical records, it's just laughable.

The conference has the most BCS bowl teams of all time at nineteen, but has won only eight of those games, the second-worst percentage among the conferences. Half of those wins came in the first two years of the BCS (1998 and 1999). Ohio State won the Fiesta Bowl in both 2002 and 2003, and the final two wins came from the Buckeyes and Penn State in 2005. That's right - the Big 10 has not won a BCS bowl in four years. But they've still been awarded two bids every season since, and will likely receive two this year!

However, the tale becomes even more damning if you look at the participants' opponents in those 2005 games. Penn State beat an 8-4 Florida State team (who won the ACC thanks to a miracle upset of superior Virginia Tech) by a score of 33-30 in triple overtime, a game before which the Nittany Lions were quoted as describing as an "insult" because of the quality of competition. That same year Ohio State beat everyone favorite BCS whipping boy, Notre Dame. So in the past seven years, the Big 10 has only won BCS bowls over a mediocre FSU team and a Notre Dame team that (surprise, surprise) didn't deserve to be there. The conference has lost six straight BCS games and six straight Rose Bowls. Yet it is quite likely that PSU or Iowa will go BCS bowling this year.

Oklahoma State is in a similar position as Iowa and Penn State, having lost at home to Texas and Houston. Their best win is over a Georgia squad that might finish 6-6, but because they were ranked highly in the preseason voters have been more than happy to give them the benefit of the doubt despite the fact that they haven't beaten anyone on a weak schedule.

All of this makes me wonder how long the voters can keep ignoring the Boise State-sized elephant in the room. BSU played a very weak schedule, it's true, but most people said they could get into a BCS bowl if most other teams lost one or probably two games. Well, guess what? Every team that is now being discussed as a BCS contender has two losses. If Oregon wins the Pac-10, how can you not put the Broncos into a BCS bowl? They would have the best win of any of the at-large teams! Penn State, Iowa and Oklahoma State have all played garbage schedules too, it's just that those teams lost when they faced real competition. Boise State didn't play but one hard team and thus didn't lose. By that standard, BSU is at least equal to those other teams.

On a happier note, how 'bout them Owls? Temple has done the unthinkable, pulling a resurrection for the ages with coach Al Golden. Right now the Owls sit at 9-2 with a shot at the MAC championship. Those words are absolutely shocking for me to write. It's impossible to put into words just how bad Temple has been historically. Worse than Oregon State. Worse than Rutgers. Impossibly bad. Temple has been playing football for over a hundred years and has recorded an astonishing nine winless seasons. Their greatest coach had a winning percentage of just 60. The program had just four winning season from 1938 to 1963 and reeled off 21 straight losses in the late 50s. In the past twenty years, Temple has had only one winning season before this one.

But that's not all. The Owls are also the only school to ever be kicked out of a conference. The reason they currently play in the MAC is because the Big East - yes, the Big East! - removed them following the 2004 season. What made the expulsion even more humiliating was the fact that the ACC had just raided the Big East of its three best teams (Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College) in an attempt to create a "superconference" a la the SEC and Big 12. The Big East was reeling and desperately needed teams to prevent itself from collapsing as a league. It still made the decision to boot the Owls, instead snatching up lowly Conference-USA teams in Louisville, USF and Cincinnati (although this looks like a good decision in retrospect).

But look at Temple now! I am truly glad to see this long-suffering program finally pick itself up and contend. The school had better lock up coach Golden to prevent him from bolting to better team - if he can do this with Temple, he might be the best coach in the nation.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

I had to think long and hard about my Heisman picks this week. No one has had an outstanding enough season to warrant top consideration. To reflect this, I decided to expand my list to include fringe contenders along with the guys most deserving. It's also true that I am only including offensive players, which does not accurately reflect who the best players in the country are. What can I say? I'm only human and it gets more and more difficult to follow defensive players as the year goes on.

On the outside looking in:

Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford

Gerhart was huge in the wins over Oregon and USC, but his chance probably ended with the loss to Cal. It's too bad, because no player in the country exerts his will on a defense like he does. He should be a finalist, but we don't live in a perfect world.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State

The heart and soul of the Beavers, Rodgers' only crime is not being flashy enough to get included on the ESPN highlight reels. All he does is produce yards and touchdowns. He won't get serious consideration this year, but next summer his campaign should start in earnest.

Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan

He's the best run-pass threat not named Masoli. Although great careers shouldn't be rewarded, I'd break that rule to honor him with at least an invite to New York. He wins pretty, he wins ugly, and CMU would be a .500 team without him. That's a Heisman resume to me.

Jeremiah Masoli, QB, Oregon

Just last week I said I didn't consider Masoli a Heisman candidate. Six touchdowns and a last-second drive to lead the team back from certain defeat changed that. It's tough to name a better player than Masoli right now. He has Oregon's offense humming again.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

I know he plays in a weak conference. But he's been golden since he stepped on the field as a freshma last season and plays brilliantly in every game. It's hard to see the Broncos beating any quality opponents without Moore. Leading the nation in passing efficiency has to count for something, doesn't it?

The main event:

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

I've been hearing for weeks that Ingram has been the most consistent back in football, but I've not seen it on the field. I can't reward the guy for playing behind a mammoth line and feasting on a diet of cupcakes that would make Charlie Weis and Mark Mangino blush.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Another week, another 400-yard effort from Keenum. His numbers are insane, but the win-loss record is now just so-so against that schedule. He probably will (criminally) be excluded from the ceremony in New York, though I'll always believe he was the most deserving player this season.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller's performance dipped ever so slightly this week, which was enough for me to move him down. I still think he's college football's best back and most explosive player, but it's hard to see him winning the top prize unless he engineers an upset of Georgia Tech in the ACC championship.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

The best player on the best team? That's been a common Heisman recipe in the past. There may be players slightly more deserving of the award, but McCoy is certainly worthy as well. Once Texas goes 13-0 and clinches a spot in the national championship game I think his supporters will have all the evidence they need. He's also probably the best QB in Texas history, which is a pretty high honor.

Mid-November: The plot thickens

National Overview

A couple more conference races decided, another shocking loss for USC and a unfortunate missed opportunity for one Heisman hopeful. The college football season rolls on and the bowl picture has begun to take shape. But first, let's take a moment to lament the end of Houston QB Case Keenum's Heisman candidacy. He deserves consideration, but the team's loss to Central Florida all but eliminates him from the real race. You'll still be on my ballot, Case!

The big game of the weekend was Iowa-Ohio State, a game that would determine the Big Ten's winner and thus Rose Bowl participant. During the contest, the teams' national rankings (ten and eleven, respectively) proved to be an absolute joke. Showcasing poor quarterbacking, timid playcalling and mediocre defense, the showdown could only have served to reinforce all the negative stereotypes the nation already holds about the Big Ten. Right now, Ohio State - who won the game, by the way - should be trembling at the thought of facing Oregon, Arizona, Stanford or Oregon State in the Granddaddy, because they're going to get clocked.

As expected, Georgia Tech put the finishing touches on their ACC title bid by steamrolling Duke. The Yellow Jackets will face Clemson in a rematch - provided the Tigers beat Virginia next week. Clemson lost a wild one 30-27 to the Ramblin' Wreck earlier in the year and should have a great shot at beating them this time.

It was business as usual in the SEC, as Florida and Alabama both dealt with vastly inferior opponents (although "dealt with" is a relative term). LSU proved they are the most overrated team in the country by nearly losing at home to Louisiana Tech, but Ole Miss continued their rise back toward respectability by appropriately beating Tennessee.

The Pac-10 had two eyebrow-raising final scores on Saturday. The first and most significant was Stanford complete demolition of USC, 55-21. Wow. Oregon's win a couple weeks ago doesn't look quite as impressive now, does it? Stanford is the hottest team in the country, but that was ridiculous. Cal also upset Arizona, making the Pac-10 race even more confusing. With everything that's happened in the SEC this year, I think it's safe to say that this is the nation's toughest conference.

In the Big East, Cincinnati withstood a stiff challenge from West Virginia to remain unbeaten and Pittsburgh survived Notre Dame to improve to 9-1. I've started to lose faith in the Bearcats of late, but they only have two games left and Pitt seems to be the only team capable of knocking them off. That showdown in a few weeks has the potential to really be special.

The only surprise in the Big 12 was Missouri beating Kansas State, but at this point I don't anyone knows what's happening in the North division. Nebraska will play K-State next week for the opportunity to get clobbered by Texas. The Longhorns have by far the easiest route to the BCS title game.

There were a couple of good mid-major contests this week, with the Spud Bowl in Boise and the Utah-TCU matchup. Neither the Boise State blowout over Idaho nor the TCU blowout of the Utes really surprised me, though. Let the pandering to the voters begin! Boise State has wisely shut up about the BCS bowl debate for a while because they obviously realize the Horned Frogs have played a much harder schedule. Still, TCU has to be sharp, because an upset would send the Broncos to one of the big games instead.

On the polls

I'll say I'm encouraged this week. Stanford got some long-overdue love and shot up to number 14, while the pollsters reasonably only dropped Utah to 23rd following their TCU loss. I'm not quite as happy about the rankings of Ohio State (eighth), LSU (ninth) and Iowa (an are-you-kidding-me fifteenth). However, the voters seem to have gotten things more right than usual this week, so there's reason to be optimistic about the rest of the season. My top 25 is as follows:

1) Texas

Once again, not much has changed. The Horns beat another patsy big, and realistically won't be challenged by their last two opponents (Kansas and Texas A&M). 12-0 looks comfortably within reach as long as Texas remains focused.

2) Alabama

Mississippi State is complete garbage, but at least the Tide were obligated to play them as an SEC member. That's a lot more than you can say about Chattanooga, 'Bama's next opponent. Come on. It's one thing to play an FCS cupcake school in September, it's quite another to play one in mid-November. The SEC needs a major upgrade in out-of-conference scheduling.

3) Florida

What was it I said last week? "The Gators won again in underwhelming fashion"? You can copy and paste that for this week's description, as Florida managed to eke out a ten-point win over mediocre South Carolina. By all rights this team deserves to move down in the rankings, but I guess I continue to give them credit for their past success, like USC.

4) TCU

TCU is about as close to the "top three" as you can get without jumping one of those teams. The Horned Frogs' on-field performance certainly merits BCS championship consideration. If they win next week and Florida nearly loses again, I'll consider moving them up.

5) Cincinnati

I considered West Virginia a top-25 team in name only, which is why the Bearcats' three-point win concerned me a little. Cincinnati is still winning, but in a decidedly Florida-like way. It's tough to tell if they're a good team that has caught a lot of breaks or a great team that plays down to their competition. All I know is that right now I'd take Pittsburgh over Cincy.

6) Georgia Tech

Tech did what they had to do against Duke, steamrolling the Blue Devils en route to an ACC title game berth. There's still the matter of dangerous games against rival Georgia and (probably) super-hot Clemson, but I can definitely see this team finishing with just one loss.

7) Boise State

Interesting, very interesting. That close Louisiana Tech win doesn't look quite as bad after the Bulldogs nearby beat LSU in Baton Rouge. With only four undefeated teams left (and the guarantee of a maximum of three), BSU will have an argument at year's end that they deserve to be in a BCS bowl. The problem is that the bowl folks would have to pick them over say, Penn State, which isn't happening.

8) Pittsburgh

Pitt had Notre Dame beat before letting up and almost seeing the Irish steal one. The five-point win was a bit disconcerting, but I'm sticking with the Panthers for now. I think Pitt has what it takes to knock off Cincy in that season-ending showdown and win the Big East. Their offense has come light years from last season.

9) Oregon

The defense looks very shaky. Tucson has been a nightmare in past seasons for the Ducks. The national spotlight (and Gameday) is on this team once again. Even so, I believe Oregon can learn from Cal's upset of the Wildcats and win this week. The question is, which group of Ducks will show up - the one that plastered USC, or the one that played two-hand touch against Stanford?

10) LSU

How, how, how are the Tigers getting so much respect? In their last two games, LSU lost to Alabama and trailed in the second half versus Louisiana Tech before dodging the upset. In response, the voters moved them from eighth to... eighth. Uh, what? I don't get the fascination with this team; their offense is horrible and their defense isn't even up to the normal LSU standard.

11) Ohio State

The Buckeyes gave Iowa every undeserved opportunity to win they could last week and the Hawkeyes still couldn't capitalize. I saw a lot I didn't like in the de facto Big Ten championship game, but it's undeniable that Ohio State has improved since the ugly Purdue loss. However, is that because of the team or the quality of the competition? We'll have to wait until the Rose Bowl to find out.

12) Oregon State

Oregon State? Number twelve? Well, let's see. They beat Stanford, which looks really good now. Their losses are to Cincinnati, USC and Arizona, all completely respectable. After the obligatory annihilation of Washington State this week, OSU will go until the Civil War with an 8-3 record and a chance at the Rose Bowl. Considering the Pac-10 is the nation's strongest conference, this seems to be a very appropriate place for the Beavers.

13) Stanford

See Oregon State, above. The Cardinal have a bad loss (Wake Forest) on their resume OSU doesn't have, but their wins are more impressive. First Oregon, now USC? That 55-21 beatdown might be the most eye-popping score this season. With respect to Clemson, Stanford is now the hottest team in the country. They could even win the league if several games go their way.

14) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are certainly good, but I don't understand why they're now being talked about as a potential BCS team. The Big 12 is widely regarded as very weak, so why should OSU get credit for beating no one? The only way they should even be considered is if they beat Oklahoma in their finale.

15) Virginia Tech

VT has become the lost team in the ACC, beating inferior opponents to little fanfare after their frustrating losses. I generally take the Hokies over most teams, but something has been missing this year. The easy ending schedule could give them a chance to recharge before the bowl game. However, the preseason recognition this team got has probably overrated them in the polls.

16) Clemson

Zooming into national prominence after taking control of their division, the Tigers have a shot at wrapping up a rematch with Georgia Tech if they beat Virginia this weekend. I'm not going to bet against them. The ACC championship is going to be a great game with C.J. Spiller adding to his Heisman resume against the wackiness of Tech's flexbone attack.

17) Wisconsin

Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern. You can't accuse the Badgers of playing a whole lot of great squads. But to their credit, they're winning. Wisconsin is going to go 10-2 with losses to Ohio State and Iowa. The Big Ten is an average conference, but Wisconsin is at least good. I rank them here because the teams below them all have flaws of some kind.

18) BYU

A five-point victory over winless New Mexico? BYU is officially on trial ranking status. I suspect the blowout home loss to TCU shook the Cougars' confidence. A good season is still possible if they beat Utah, though. Both teams got waxed by the Horned Frogs, so the Holy War should be a good game.

19) USC

Wow. There are no words for what happened at the Coliseum on Saturday. USC is now in a position that we haven't seen for eight years. The Trojans should be able to beat their last two opponents -UCLA and Arizona - but will they? It's conceivable that without a big bowl as a reward the team might give up on the season. It will be very interesting to see how USC finishes.

20) Penn State

These guys move up only because the losses ahead of them. They've been sloppy all year, failing to put away inferior teams and losing to the only great teams they've played. "Less than the sum of their parts" is the most accurate description of the Nittany Lions, who have been very disappointing this year.

21) North Carolina

The Tar Heels are back! Sort of. UNC has put together a nice year with some solid wins, including last week's upset of Miami (FL). Could it be that Butch Davis' new team is the real up-and-comer in the ACC, rather than his old team (the 'Canes)? People have been saying for a few years that Carolina was primed to break out. It appears that time may have arrived.

22) Utah

Utah got smacked around by TCU, but so have a lot of teams. The Utes have had a solid if unremarkable year and have probably gained enough national respect to get an invite to a decent. To really call the season a success they need to beat BYU, but Utah is now at the level of a BCS-conference team.

23) Arizona

I sure didn't see that loss to Cal coming. The Bears got all the breaks and managed a touchdown win, but the Wildcats could conceivably turn their frustration over the loss into fuel for the Oregon game this week. Before the Cal game I would have picked the Ducks in a close game, now I'm not so sure. Was the loss the Bears indicative of 'Zona's true nature, or was it simply a bump in the road?

24) Miami (FL)

Despite the disappointing losses to Clemson and North Carolina, Miami has still had a good year given their rough schedule. I'm sure Hurricanes fans would have been very happy with the idea of a 7-3 record at this point in the season. Miami has also found their leaders for the future. The pains of 2009 could translate into a huge 2010.

25) Houston

I thought the Cougars were on the verge of a loss, though I hoped they might get their act together in time to save their one-loss season. You could see the UCF loss coming: the abysmal defensive play the last few weeks, the lucky breaks to pull out close wins. The true tragedy is the death of Case Keenum's Heisman campaign, just when he was starting to get some national recognition.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Interestingly enough, even though Georgia Tech has a run-crazy offense, the Yellow Jackets lead the nation in yards per pass attempt. Detractors of the flexbone claim that once defenses stop the run, the offense can't move the ball. However, this data shows how Georgia Tech's powerful ground game forces defenses to load the box, opening things up for the passing game. The Ramblin' Wreck don't want or need a balanced offense, they just need enough of a threat to pass to keep defenders from crashing down on the run. When they get that, as they have this season, the offense is unstoppable.

More fun in the polls! Miami (FL) and North Carolina now have identical 7-3 records. The Tar Heels just beat the 'Canes. Can you guess which team is ranked higher? At least the BCS rankings make a little sense, as they have Stanford, USC and Oregon State ranked seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth, respectively. The teams are all 7-3 and went 1-1 against each other, so the rankings are reasonable. Of course, the BCS rankings also have a bizarre love affair with Cal - the Bears have been ranked every over week despite having one decent win (Arizona) all season.

Just in case you needed more evidence that picking Tim Tebow as a Heisman finalist is absurd, look at his touchdown numbers. I measured Tebow to Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli before and the comparison is still valid. Tebow has passed and rushed for 22 touchdowns in ten games, Masoli has passed and rushed for 20 in nine games. The numbers are nearly identical. As an Oregon fan, I like Masoli a lot, but I'm not going to say that he's a Heisman candidate. If Masoli isn't a finalist, then Tebow shouldn't be either. It's not just a matter of him not being worthy, it's the fact that he would be taking away a spot from another player.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

He hasn't done enough to move down and hasn't done enough to move up. Ingram has been in no-man's land the last few weeks, but he has the advantage of playing Florida in the SEC title game before the final votes are tallied. A big performance would virtually guarantee him the Heisman.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

He's still been the best quarterback this year, but a two-loss Conference-USA team isn't going to get their Heisman candidate any love. Keenum's outstanding performances and ridiculous stats aren't going to be enough to persuade voters that he deserves to go to New York ahead of other higher-profile guys, which is a shame.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

I do like McCoy, but the lack of quality competition is starting to hurt his cause. Blowing out Baylor and UCF is good for stats but doesn't impress anyone. In light of what my number one guy has done recently, I don't like just handing McCoy the top spot.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller's been electrifying over the last month and has led Clemson to the cusp of an ACC championship berth. He followed up his amazing performances against Miami (FL) and FSU with stellar work against North Carolina State this week, a game in which he ran, caught, and threw for a touchdown. He's the best player in the nation right now.

Upset special

National Overview

Upsets galore this weekend, from the Pac-10 to the Big 12 to the Big 10. Several highly-ranked teams just avoided losing as well. It was a crazy day, the kind that can only happen in college football.

The big win of the week was obviously Alabama over LSU, as it wrapped up the SEC West for the Crimson Tide for the second straight year. The Florida-Alabama matchup is now set, and only a monumental upset before then will keep one of them out of the BCS title game. In related news, Texas saw rival Oklahoma fall to Nebraska, virtually ensuring that the Longhorns will waltz to the Big 12 title and probably a BCS championship berth. At this point, it's almost a given that the national champ will be the winner of Florida/'Bama-Texas.

Iowa and Oregon battled for the winner of biggest flop, with the Hawkeyes coming up with the narrow victory because Stanford was at least respectable (and at home). Both the Ducks and Hawkeyes chose the wrong week to not take their opponent seriously and both paid for it. However, they can still win their respective conferences if they pick themselves up off the canvas and finish strong. Their fates are in their own hands.

In the Big East, Cincinnati faced a similar situation against Connecticut but managed to escape. Kansas State defeated rival Kansas to keep their (unlikely) Big 12 championship hopes alive, and Houston won an absolutely crazy game to take control of the Conference USA West division.

The conferences races have thus both cleared in some leagues and become more muddled in others. Let's recap:

Georgia Tech moved to 6-1 in the ACC with their overtime win over Wake Forest and can clinch the Coastal division with a win versus Duke. Clemson beat Florida State and now leads the Atlantic.

Alabama and Florida will meet in the SEC championship.

Texas will win the Big 12 South and probably face Kansas State, though there's still a chance it could be Nebraska if the Huskers beat the Wildcats.

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh will play for the Big East title on December 5th.

The winner of Iowa-Ohio State this week will be the Big 10 champ unless that team loses their final game, which is unlikely.

The Pac-10 is a complete crapshoot. Oregon and Arizona control their own destinies, but a second loss by the Ducks could move Stanford into first place, while USC is still hoping Oregon loses out to extend their BCS bowl streak. Oregon State is also still in the mix with two losses and could complete their longshot bid by winning out if Arizona goes down to the Ducks and the Trojans.

Houston appears to be the best team in Conference USA and Boise State, despite their near-disaster against Louisiana Tech, is the dominant team in the WAC. Central Michigan and Temple control their respective fates in the MAC, Troy leads the Sun Belt by a wide margin and the Mountain West champ will be the winner of the upcoming Utah-TCU tilt.

On the polls

I'm absolutely baffled by what we're seeing in the polls right now. How are some teams still ranked ahead of opponents that beat them? It's insane. I completely agree with ESPN's Jesse Palmer, who used the fact that USC is ranked ahead of Oregon as an example. "Did the voters not see the game two weeks ago?" he said. "This ranking is an absolute joke." Too true, Jesse. But that's not nearly the end of the ridiculousness of the current top 25. I think I can justify my rankings. Can the real voters?

1) Texas

Not really a debate right now. The Longhorns schedule has taken a turn for the flimsy, but they are appropriately blowing out everyone they are playing. They're playing their best ball of the season and are worthy of the top spot.

2) Alabama

I'm not very convinced with LSU's legitimacy, which is why the Tide don't jump the Horns. Still, if LSU is not elite, they're still decent and the win is a quality one. The victory over the Tigers should help boost Alabama's strength of schedule, which is starting to fall because of Virginia Tech's recent struggles.

3) Florida

The Gators won in underwhelming fashion again last weekend, this time versus Vanderbilt. I'm not sure if the voters are just too stubborn to move Florida down or if they've actually not watched the team play this season. Either way, it is laughable that they're still number one in the polls. They have beaten one top 25 team and won't play another until the SEC title game. How is that resume any more deserving than say, Boise State's?

4) TCU

TCU won big and got some love from the BCS this week, shooting up to number four. I don't know if the Horned Frogs are as good as the "Big Three" (Texas, Alabama, Florida), but I can safely say they're on par with the five or so teams below them, including the BCS-conference ones. The defense is nasty and very disciplined, which always puts the team in a great position.

5) Cincinnati

I'm amazed that Cincy is still winning with Tony Pike on the sideline. Guess he wasn't as valuable as we thought, huh? The key for the Bearcats is the offensive system and outstanding coaching. I want to root for them, but they play in the Big East so it's tough to make the case that they deserve national championship consideration. That two-point win over Connecticut was a little dicey too.

6) Georgia Tech

The defense has been extra-leaky the past couple of weeks, which is really saying something. I still love the offense, but at some point someone is going to slow down the Ramblin' Wreck just a little and the defense is going to lose this team a game. It might take until the bowl season, though, like when LSU dominated the Yellow Jackets after several weeks of preparation last year.

7) Boise State

Oregon's loss was killer. Boise State is now praying that Utah beats TCU this week, because there's no way the Broncos will get into a BCS game if the Horned Frogs go undefeated. It's a tough situation, but the hard truth is that Boise State is barely beating mediocre and bad teams. Five of the teams on their schedule are ranked outside the top 100 by the Sagarin ratings, and that's not even including UC Davis.

8) Pittsburgh

Pitt has quietly crept up to a great spot in the polls. If only the Panthers hadn't collapsed against North Carolina State! This is without a doubt one of the top two Big East teams and is actually playing a little better than Cincinnati right now. All the Panthers have to do is get past West Virginia and then we'll be treated to one of the games of the year against the Bearcats.

9) Oregon

That defensive performance against Stanford was atrocious. The offense keeps humming along, but the Cardinal might have given teams a blueprint on how to beat the Ducks. It's not easy, but you can do it. How Oregon responds to the loss will say a lot about the character of the team, and with games against Arizona and Oregon State coming up, there's not a lot of time to cry over what might have been. I do think that Stanford is a quality opponent, though.

10) LSU

Since when did losing close to good teams deserve a high ranking? LSU played 'Bama and Florida close, it's true, but the best team they've beaten is 5-4 Georgia. It's crazy that the Tigers did not drop in the BCS after losing to the Tide. In all likelihood this team is going to go 10-2, but they still won't have anything close to quality win. This team is definitely living off its reputation. However, I still ranked them ahead of...

11) USC

... because something is really wrong with the Trojans right now. A five-point win over Arizona State? Yikes. That was almost more eye-opening than the Oregon beatdown, because everyone assumed a Pete Carroll team would bounce back big after a humiliating loss. The defense is not very impressive and now the offense has slowed considerably. This is a really bad time for the Trojans to be playing Stanford. There's certainly a chance they could rebound and get their season back on track, but I'm not the one to tell you how they're going to do it.

12) Ohio State

Well, well, well. Ohio State finally showed up on the big stage again. It's been awhile, I must say. Now, I've said in the past that I don't think Penn State is very good - which last week's game seemed to prove - but they're still a talented team that was in contention for the Big Ten title. The Buckeyes are now in a position to sweep aside the sting of the Purdue loss and win the conference if they can knock off Iowa this week.

13) Houston

That's now two games in a row Case Keenum and the offense have had to save the defense's collective behinds. I can't justify moving the Cougars up because they just beat Southern Miss by seven and Tulsa by one. When teams start having games like this, it usually indicates a fall is coming. I hope that isn't the case because Houston is a very entertaining team, but I'd be lying if I said I thought they could beat anyone above them.

14) Arizona

I would've moved the Wildcats up farther, but they got Washington State last week, which is isn't exactly a difficult matchup. I don't think they'll have any problem with Cal this week, but the Oregon game now takes on a huge significance with the Ducks' loss to Stanford, as a win would enable 'Zona to lose to USC in their finale and still win the Pac-10 championship. First they have to focus on the task at hand, though.

15) Utah

Just when I thought Utah was on the verge of getting upset, they delivered an appropriately dominant performance against an inferior team in New Mexico. A warning to the Utes, though: TCU is going to be a lot harder. The battle for Mountain West supremacy takes place this week and I'm very excited. With a win, Utah can assert that they still rule the league; with a loss, TCU becomes the conference's standard-bearer.

16) Miami (FL)

The 'Canes still have Duke to play, but it would take a collapse from Georgia Tech to see Miami in the ACC title game. Too bad, because this team has come a long way this season and Jacory Harris is one of the nation's best quarterbacks. Inconsistent play has probably doomed them to also-ran status for the year, though.

17) Oregon State

I predicted that OSU would rise up the rankings as the season wore on and the Beavers responded to my trust. As usual, they are improving rapidly in the last half of the year. The schedule is pretty cushy from here on out too, with Oregon the only team left Oregon State won't completely crush. An 8-3 record going into the Civil War after a 2-2 start, with the only loss a close one to USC, is quite impressive (and vintage Mike Riley).

18) Oklahoma State

The other OSU did well to blow out Iowa State on Saturday, but I'm still getting a very LSU/Penn State vibe from the Cowboys. They've lost to the two best teams they've played and their best win is over Georgia. Sound familiar? I have them in my rankings because they'll probably finish with nine or ten wins, but the question remains whether any of them are quality.

19) Wisconsin

I'm a little surprised that the Badgers couldn't put away Indiana, but I still have to give them some credit. This is not a glamour team. The quarterback play stinks (surprise!) and it's possible that the defense might be good only because of the weak Big Ten offenses it's faced. Like Oklahoma State, though, Wisconsin is going to finish with a respectable record. And really, who else is there to put ahead of them?

20) Iowa

Thank goodness that ridiculous charade is over. Iowa finally got what was coming to them in the form of a 17-10 home loss to Northwestern. They're still ranked because they won nine games, but let's be real: there's nothing special about this team. To borrow a description from a local sports personality, they "smoke-and-mirrored" their way to that record. Is anyone seriously going to pick them to beat Ohio State?

21) Virginia Tech

Not a whole lot to report here. The Hokies sit at 6-3, but with no realistic chance to win their division, it's hard to say how the team will react. Tech has pretty much ruled the AC since joining it a few years back, so this is an odd position for them. If the offense is on (big if), I'm confident they could beat almost anyone, but the lack of their usual dominant defense has been off-putting this season.

22) BYU

What, did everyone have a bye last week? As I said before, BYU can still finish with a solid record by winning out, but you don't get a lot of credit for not playing. The way Oklahoma has been playing might end up being a knock on the Cougars, though. That win was what they were depending on for national respect. Now it doesn't look to impressive.

23) Clemson

A solid win over Florida State and an early-season victory over Boston College, and now the Tigers lead the Atlantic division. I'm getting more and more excited about this time each time I see them. C.J. Spiller is a fantastic back and the team has reeled off a few wins in a row. Clemson now only has to beat North Carolina State and Virginia to get to the ACC title game.

24) Stanford

It's about time Stanford got some love. True, they had to play a perfect game to beat Oregon, but beat them they did. That was the hottest team in the country the Cardinal just hung 51 points on. Now it's on to USC - can this team repeat last week's performance? Don't hold your breath. Andrew Luck is an excellent young quarterback and the offense can usually cover up for the defense's shortcomings.

25) Penn State

I was tricked last week into moving the Nittany Lions up in my rankings. For shame. I should have gone with my gut feeling, which was that PSU was living off it's preseason hype and nothing else. Ohio State just beat these guys, plain and simple. While the Buckeyes have been improving, there's still no excuse to lose to a team that lost to Purdue.

Random Thoughts and Observations

People have started to notice in the past few seasons that SEC teams are padding their schedules with one or more lower-division schools in order to pick up easy wins. This has the benefit of making every one in the league's out-of-conference schedule look great, which leads voters to rank more of the teams and creates the perception that the SEC is a powerhouse conference. If all the teams are 4-0 or 3-1 heading into conference play, they must be pretty good, right?

Of course, anyone who watches college football can tell you that records do not reflect the quality of a team. But the ruse has worked very well for the SEC in the last three seasons, in which the SEC champion has been considered a lock for the BCS title game regardless of how many losses they have. A quick glance at the league this year would show you that there are two elite teams (Florida and Alabama), one above-average team (LSU), three average teams (Tennessee, Georgia and Ole Miss), and six below-average teams (Vandy, Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State and South Carolina). So what makes the SEC such a dominant conference in the voters' eyes? It has to be overblown preseason expectations and hype about "the toughest conference in America."

But back to the matter of FCS opponents. This season, eleven of the twelve SEC teams play them, with the sole exception of LSU. However, Ole Miss made up for this by scheduling two. That is embarrassing. It means the conference gets twelve free wins this year and can use its teams' padded records to trick voters into voting them higher, resulting in better bowl games and more money for the SEC. It's sad that this tactic has worked so well.

I talk about the SEC a lot, so I feel I should explain my intended purpose. When I rant against the myth of the "powerful" SEC, it's not because I hate the conference. It's because I firmly believe that parity has hit major-college football to the extent that no team can objectively considered number one. It's why I believe in a playoff; at least the best teams would be gathered together to determine a champion on the field.

When the NCAA cut the number of football scholarships to 85, the traditional powerhouse schools could no longer horde the top players and beat down the their usual lackeys. The best prep players began to spread around the country to several other schools. The increase over time of talented players has also given more schools stronger teams. The result of all of this is a overall leveling of the field. It's why Utah and Boise State can beat Alabama or Oklahoma. It's why the myth of "powerhouse" teams is no longer remotely plausible. It's why there's not really much of a difference between Florida and Oklahoma, Oregon and Georgia Tech, Boise State and TCU. Talent is too spread out nowadays.

In other rants...

Every time I think the top 25 rankings are finally making sense, the pollsters throw a ridiculous wrench into the process. They ranked Oklahoma State over Houston for much of the season despite the fact that both teams had the same record and Houston beat OSU! Cal was ranked last weekend while Oregon State was unranked, even though Cal had been hammered by the best teams it played while the Beavers had only lost close games. Oregon State corrected this mistake by whipping the Bears. Then there's the bizarre case of USC jumping over Oregon even though - say it with me - the teams have the same record and the Ducks won head-to-head.

The Sports Illustrated cover curse is alive and strong! I have long believed that SI is the worst predictor of sports outcomes on the planet and they continue to consistently let me down. There are myriad examples of this, but I'll just list the ones off the top of my head:

In 2001, SI had Oregon State football on the cover and labeled OSU the number one team in the nation. The Beavers went lost by 20 in their first game and went 5-6.

In 2003, following Oregon's victory over then-third ranked Michigan, SI had the Ducks on the cover with the headline "Rich, cool and 4-0." Oregon lost their next game 55-16.

This summer SI chose four teams - Oregon, Penn State, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss - for regional covers as "Teams that could shake up the BCS." Oregon lost their opener, Oklahoma State their second game, Ole Miss their third and Penn State their fourth. Not one of the teams made it out of September without a loss.

And of course, there was last week's issue featuring Iowa, with the headline "Still Perfect." The Hawkeyes promptly lost their next game.

Can we make a rule that SI is no longer allowed to write about a sport its writers so clearly know nothing about? The magazine's history of complete incompetence is this subject is just funny at this point.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

For the first time, my Heisman ballot remains the same two weeks in a row. I couldn't think of a reason to move anyone up or down, so everyone gets to stay put.

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

Ingram's production has slowed and he hasn't rushed for a touchdown in three weeks, but he's still on pace for a 1,500 yard season. I think Alabama's lack of a legitimate passing game is hurting him, so I'll stick with him for now. He's got some weak defenses coming up and should be able to put up some nice numbers.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller is just on fire right now. He set a school record for all-purpose yards with 310 in the Tigers upset of Miami (FL), then topped it last week with 312 in the win over Florida State. He's turning it on at the right time and the Heisman voters ought to take notice. It's performances like that in big-game situations that lead to invites to New York.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

Under normal circumstances Spiller would have passed McCoy this week, but McCoy's stat line was even more impressive. The senior passed for 470 yards in the Longhorns win over UCF. It took a while, but McCoy has returned to top-shelf form and is now a lock to be a Heisman finalist. The only thing he's missing is the traditional "Heisman moment" that winners have to have.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Heisman moment, you say? How about leading the team back from an eight-point deficit with three minutes left, scoring a touchdown and then completing back-to-back passes to put the Cougars in range for the game-winning field goal as time expires? Oh, and Keenum threw for 522 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Enough said.