Mid-November: The plot thickens

National Overview

A couple more conference races decided, another shocking loss for USC and a unfortunate missed opportunity for one Heisman hopeful. The college football season rolls on and the bowl picture has begun to take shape. But first, let's take a moment to lament the end of Houston QB Case Keenum's Heisman candidacy. He deserves consideration, but the team's loss to Central Florida all but eliminates him from the real race. You'll still be on my ballot, Case!

The big game of the weekend was Iowa-Ohio State, a game that would determine the Big Ten's winner and thus Rose Bowl participant. During the contest, the teams' national rankings (ten and eleven, respectively) proved to be an absolute joke. Showcasing poor quarterbacking, timid playcalling and mediocre defense, the showdown could only have served to reinforce all the negative stereotypes the nation already holds about the Big Ten. Right now, Ohio State - who won the game, by the way - should be trembling at the thought of facing Oregon, Arizona, Stanford or Oregon State in the Granddaddy, because they're going to get clocked.

As expected, Georgia Tech put the finishing touches on their ACC title bid by steamrolling Duke. The Yellow Jackets will face Clemson in a rematch - provided the Tigers beat Virginia next week. Clemson lost a wild one 30-27 to the Ramblin' Wreck earlier in the year and should have a great shot at beating them this time.

It was business as usual in the SEC, as Florida and Alabama both dealt with vastly inferior opponents (although "dealt with" is a relative term). LSU proved they are the most overrated team in the country by nearly losing at home to Louisiana Tech, but Ole Miss continued their rise back toward respectability by appropriately beating Tennessee.

The Pac-10 had two eyebrow-raising final scores on Saturday. The first and most significant was Stanford complete demolition of USC, 55-21. Wow. Oregon's win a couple weeks ago doesn't look quite as impressive now, does it? Stanford is the hottest team in the country, but that was ridiculous. Cal also upset Arizona, making the Pac-10 race even more confusing. With everything that's happened in the SEC this year, I think it's safe to say that this is the nation's toughest conference.

In the Big East, Cincinnati withstood a stiff challenge from West Virginia to remain unbeaten and Pittsburgh survived Notre Dame to improve to 9-1. I've started to lose faith in the Bearcats of late, but they only have two games left and Pitt seems to be the only team capable of knocking them off. That showdown in a few weeks has the potential to really be special.

The only surprise in the Big 12 was Missouri beating Kansas State, but at this point I don't anyone knows what's happening in the North division. Nebraska will play K-State next week for the opportunity to get clobbered by Texas. The Longhorns have by far the easiest route to the BCS title game.

There were a couple of good mid-major contests this week, with the Spud Bowl in Boise and the Utah-TCU matchup. Neither the Boise State blowout over Idaho nor the TCU blowout of the Utes really surprised me, though. Let the pandering to the voters begin! Boise State has wisely shut up about the BCS bowl debate for a while because they obviously realize the Horned Frogs have played a much harder schedule. Still, TCU has to be sharp, because an upset would send the Broncos to one of the big games instead.

On the polls

I'll say I'm encouraged this week. Stanford got some long-overdue love and shot up to number 14, while the pollsters reasonably only dropped Utah to 23rd following their TCU loss. I'm not quite as happy about the rankings of Ohio State (eighth), LSU (ninth) and Iowa (an are-you-kidding-me fifteenth). However, the voters seem to have gotten things more right than usual this week, so there's reason to be optimistic about the rest of the season. My top 25 is as follows:

1) Texas

Once again, not much has changed. The Horns beat another patsy big, and realistically won't be challenged by their last two opponents (Kansas and Texas A&M). 12-0 looks comfortably within reach as long as Texas remains focused.

2) Alabama

Mississippi State is complete garbage, but at least the Tide were obligated to play them as an SEC member. That's a lot more than you can say about Chattanooga, 'Bama's next opponent. Come on. It's one thing to play an FCS cupcake school in September, it's quite another to play one in mid-November. The SEC needs a major upgrade in out-of-conference scheduling.

3) Florida

What was it I said last week? "The Gators won again in underwhelming fashion"? You can copy and paste that for this week's description, as Florida managed to eke out a ten-point win over mediocre South Carolina. By all rights this team deserves to move down in the rankings, but I guess I continue to give them credit for their past success, like USC.

4) TCU

TCU is about as close to the "top three" as you can get without jumping one of those teams. The Horned Frogs' on-field performance certainly merits BCS championship consideration. If they win next week and Florida nearly loses again, I'll consider moving them up.

5) Cincinnati

I considered West Virginia a top-25 team in name only, which is why the Bearcats' three-point win concerned me a little. Cincinnati is still winning, but in a decidedly Florida-like way. It's tough to tell if they're a good team that has caught a lot of breaks or a great team that plays down to their competition. All I know is that right now I'd take Pittsburgh over Cincy.

6) Georgia Tech

Tech did what they had to do against Duke, steamrolling the Blue Devils en route to an ACC title game berth. There's still the matter of dangerous games against rival Georgia and (probably) super-hot Clemson, but I can definitely see this team finishing with just one loss.

7) Boise State

Interesting, very interesting. That close Louisiana Tech win doesn't look quite as bad after the Bulldogs nearby beat LSU in Baton Rouge. With only four undefeated teams left (and the guarantee of a maximum of three), BSU will have an argument at year's end that they deserve to be in a BCS bowl. The problem is that the bowl folks would have to pick them over say, Penn State, which isn't happening.

8) Pittsburgh

Pitt had Notre Dame beat before letting up and almost seeing the Irish steal one. The five-point win was a bit disconcerting, but I'm sticking with the Panthers for now. I think Pitt has what it takes to knock off Cincy in that season-ending showdown and win the Big East. Their offense has come light years from last season.

9) Oregon

The defense looks very shaky. Tucson has been a nightmare in past seasons for the Ducks. The national spotlight (and Gameday) is on this team once again. Even so, I believe Oregon can learn from Cal's upset of the Wildcats and win this week. The question is, which group of Ducks will show up - the one that plastered USC, or the one that played two-hand touch against Stanford?

10) LSU

How, how, how are the Tigers getting so much respect? In their last two games, LSU lost to Alabama and trailed in the second half versus Louisiana Tech before dodging the upset. In response, the voters moved them from eighth to... eighth. Uh, what? I don't get the fascination with this team; their offense is horrible and their defense isn't even up to the normal LSU standard.

11) Ohio State

The Buckeyes gave Iowa every undeserved opportunity to win they could last week and the Hawkeyes still couldn't capitalize. I saw a lot I didn't like in the de facto Big Ten championship game, but it's undeniable that Ohio State has improved since the ugly Purdue loss. However, is that because of the team or the quality of the competition? We'll have to wait until the Rose Bowl to find out.

12) Oregon State

Oregon State? Number twelve? Well, let's see. They beat Stanford, which looks really good now. Their losses are to Cincinnati, USC and Arizona, all completely respectable. After the obligatory annihilation of Washington State this week, OSU will go until the Civil War with an 8-3 record and a chance at the Rose Bowl. Considering the Pac-10 is the nation's strongest conference, this seems to be a very appropriate place for the Beavers.

13) Stanford

See Oregon State, above. The Cardinal have a bad loss (Wake Forest) on their resume OSU doesn't have, but their wins are more impressive. First Oregon, now USC? That 55-21 beatdown might be the most eye-popping score this season. With respect to Clemson, Stanford is now the hottest team in the country. They could even win the league if several games go their way.

14) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are certainly good, but I don't understand why they're now being talked about as a potential BCS team. The Big 12 is widely regarded as very weak, so why should OSU get credit for beating no one? The only way they should even be considered is if they beat Oklahoma in their finale.

15) Virginia Tech

VT has become the lost team in the ACC, beating inferior opponents to little fanfare after their frustrating losses. I generally take the Hokies over most teams, but something has been missing this year. The easy ending schedule could give them a chance to recharge before the bowl game. However, the preseason recognition this team got has probably overrated them in the polls.

16) Clemson

Zooming into national prominence after taking control of their division, the Tigers have a shot at wrapping up a rematch with Georgia Tech if they beat Virginia this weekend. I'm not going to bet against them. The ACC championship is going to be a great game with C.J. Spiller adding to his Heisman resume against the wackiness of Tech's flexbone attack.

17) Wisconsin

Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern. You can't accuse the Badgers of playing a whole lot of great squads. But to their credit, they're winning. Wisconsin is going to go 10-2 with losses to Ohio State and Iowa. The Big Ten is an average conference, but Wisconsin is at least good. I rank them here because the teams below them all have flaws of some kind.

18) BYU

A five-point victory over winless New Mexico? BYU is officially on trial ranking status. I suspect the blowout home loss to TCU shook the Cougars' confidence. A good season is still possible if they beat Utah, though. Both teams got waxed by the Horned Frogs, so the Holy War should be a good game.

19) USC

Wow. There are no words for what happened at the Coliseum on Saturday. USC is now in a position that we haven't seen for eight years. The Trojans should be able to beat their last two opponents -UCLA and Arizona - but will they? It's conceivable that without a big bowl as a reward the team might give up on the season. It will be very interesting to see how USC finishes.

20) Penn State

These guys move up only because the losses ahead of them. They've been sloppy all year, failing to put away inferior teams and losing to the only great teams they've played. "Less than the sum of their parts" is the most accurate description of the Nittany Lions, who have been very disappointing this year.

21) North Carolina

The Tar Heels are back! Sort of. UNC has put together a nice year with some solid wins, including last week's upset of Miami (FL). Could it be that Butch Davis' new team is the real up-and-comer in the ACC, rather than his old team (the 'Canes)? People have been saying for a few years that Carolina was primed to break out. It appears that time may have arrived.

22) Utah

Utah got smacked around by TCU, but so have a lot of teams. The Utes have had a solid if unremarkable year and have probably gained enough national respect to get an invite to a decent. To really call the season a success they need to beat BYU, but Utah is now at the level of a BCS-conference team.

23) Arizona

I sure didn't see that loss to Cal coming. The Bears got all the breaks and managed a touchdown win, but the Wildcats could conceivably turn their frustration over the loss into fuel for the Oregon game this week. Before the Cal game I would have picked the Ducks in a close game, now I'm not so sure. Was the loss the Bears indicative of 'Zona's true nature, or was it simply a bump in the road?

24) Miami (FL)

Despite the disappointing losses to Clemson and North Carolina, Miami has still had a good year given their rough schedule. I'm sure Hurricanes fans would have been very happy with the idea of a 7-3 record at this point in the season. Miami has also found their leaders for the future. The pains of 2009 could translate into a huge 2010.

25) Houston

I thought the Cougars were on the verge of a loss, though I hoped they might get their act together in time to save their one-loss season. You could see the UCF loss coming: the abysmal defensive play the last few weeks, the lucky breaks to pull out close wins. The true tragedy is the death of Case Keenum's Heisman campaign, just when he was starting to get some national recognition.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Interestingly enough, even though Georgia Tech has a run-crazy offense, the Yellow Jackets lead the nation in yards per pass attempt. Detractors of the flexbone claim that once defenses stop the run, the offense can't move the ball. However, this data shows how Georgia Tech's powerful ground game forces defenses to load the box, opening things up for the passing game. The Ramblin' Wreck don't want or need a balanced offense, they just need enough of a threat to pass to keep defenders from crashing down on the run. When they get that, as they have this season, the offense is unstoppable.

More fun in the polls! Miami (FL) and North Carolina now have identical 7-3 records. The Tar Heels just beat the 'Canes. Can you guess which team is ranked higher? At least the BCS rankings make a little sense, as they have Stanford, USC and Oregon State ranked seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth, respectively. The teams are all 7-3 and went 1-1 against each other, so the rankings are reasonable. Of course, the BCS rankings also have a bizarre love affair with Cal - the Bears have been ranked every over week despite having one decent win (Arizona) all season.

Just in case you needed more evidence that picking Tim Tebow as a Heisman finalist is absurd, look at his touchdown numbers. I measured Tebow to Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli before and the comparison is still valid. Tebow has passed and rushed for 22 touchdowns in ten games, Masoli has passed and rushed for 20 in nine games. The numbers are nearly identical. As an Oregon fan, I like Masoli a lot, but I'm not going to say that he's a Heisman candidate. If Masoli isn't a finalist, then Tebow shouldn't be either. It's not just a matter of him not being worthy, it's the fact that he would be taking away a spot from another player.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

He hasn't done enough to move down and hasn't done enough to move up. Ingram has been in no-man's land the last few weeks, but he has the advantage of playing Florida in the SEC title game before the final votes are tallied. A big performance would virtually guarantee him the Heisman.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

He's still been the best quarterback this year, but a two-loss Conference-USA team isn't going to get their Heisman candidate any love. Keenum's outstanding performances and ridiculous stats aren't going to be enough to persuade voters that he deserves to go to New York ahead of other higher-profile guys, which is a shame.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

I do like McCoy, but the lack of quality competition is starting to hurt his cause. Blowing out Baylor and UCF is good for stats but doesn't impress anyone. In light of what my number one guy has done recently, I don't like just handing McCoy the top spot.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller's been electrifying over the last month and has led Clemson to the cusp of an ACC championship berth. He followed up his amazing performances against Miami (FL) and FSU with stellar work against North Carolina State this week, a game in which he ran, caught, and threw for a touchdown. He's the best player in the nation right now.