Thanksgiving Week Answers

National Overview

And the Lord said, "Let there be clarity." After weeks, nay, months of confusion, the conference races fell into simple alignment across the nation on Saturday. Only one league - the Conference USA - has any doubt left regarding its championship determinants. Let's start with the mid-majors (I'll even put the conferences in order from weakest to strongest the way I seem them):

Troy will win the Sun Belt even with a loss in the next game by virtue of their win over second-place Middle Tennessee State. I laugh at the Sun Belt a lot, and rightfully so, but I've followed the Trojans a bit over the last few years and feel confident that they're actually pretty good.

Boise State and Nevada are both undefeated in WAC play, thus their game this week will decide the conference title. Nevada has an unbelievable rushing attack - the Wolf Pack just became the first team in NCAA history to have not one, not two, but three 1,000-yard rushers in a season - but I just can't see how the Broncos could possibly lose to them. If Notre Dame could beat Nevada 35-0, BSU should probably be OK.

Central Michigan and Temple are both 7-0 in the MAC and will meet in the conference championship game regardless of what each team does in the regular season finales. I like Central Michigan and QB Dan LeFevour a lot, even going so far as to rank them this season. Still, Temple is having a miracle year, their greatest ever, and many are wondering if they might not be destined to win out (more on the Owls, yes, the Owls, later).

In the Conference USA, Houston is poised to take the West division provided they handle woeful Rice in their last game, which they should. If they should lose, though, SMU - the same SMU that gave Washington State its only win - will claim the division. East Carolina and Southern Miss play this week to determine the East winner. Houston has proved to be the most talented team in the conference, but the Cougars have also shown themselves to be vulnerable to mental lapses. It's anyone's guess who will win this league.

The Big East, while not a mid-major conference, has performed like one this season, which is why I ranked it below the Mountain West. The chase for the title has been a two-team affair all season, with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh set to conclude their epic duel on December 5th. I do like both those teams, by the way. It's just that the rest of the Big East is so weak. The fact that its members play only a seven-game conference slate - the shortest of any league - contributes to this, as most of schools play one if not two FCS opponents and fare poorly in big-game nonleague play.

The Mountain West could be even stronger were it not for its collection of cupcakes at the bottom. As it stands now, Utah, BYU and TCU have raised the bar for all mid-major teams and really improved the reputation of the conference in general. The Horned Frogs have clinched the title thanks to their wins over the Utes and Cougars, though there's still a great game left with those two battling it out for second place this week.

The poor, embattled Big Ten decided its champion last week when Ohio State beat Iowa, but the Buckeyes made it super-official with a win over Michigan Saturday. The question now is whether 10-2 Iowa or 10-2 Penn State can snatch up an at-large BCS bid. I, of course, would respond with a resounding please-God-no, but that's just me. More on the Big 10's BCS chances later.

It seems strange to think the Big 12 could be only the fourth-best conference after all the preseason love it got, but that's where we stand after the overall dismal quality of play this year. Not one team lived up to its expectations, including undefeated Texas. The Longhorns have wrapped up the South division because there wasn't a legitimate challenger, but they had to wait until this week to see who they would play in title game because no one seemed to want to win the North. With a win over Kansas State Saturday, Nebraska earned the right to play for a BCS bid, but it would truly be shocking to see the Cornhuskers beat the Horns.

It's also odd to think of the ACC as the third-best conference, but the league has earned it this year. The usual near-universal mediocrity is present again, but this year more teams than usual managed to rise above the pack. The Coastal division alone has four strong squads in Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and North Carolina, and Clemson in the Atlantic has finished the season as one of the hottest teams in the country. It feels weird to say, but we may be headed for a very good ACC championship game.

The SEC, of course, has had the worst race of any conference this season, as Florida and Alabama cakewalked to 8-0 records and easy title game berths. In retrospect, it's actually remarkable how simple it was for the Tide and Gators: aside from 'Bama's week one win over a good but not great Virginia Tech team, the only ranked opponent the teams played was LSU, who they both beat. Why the voters have deemed these schedules worthy of the top rankings is another issue entirely.

Finally, the Pac-10, which concludes its wild and highly entertaining fight for the Rose Bowl December 3rd in the Civil War. Going into last weekend five teams (half the league!) still had a shot at the title. Oregon State ended USC's hopes with a predictable victory over WSU, Cal stunned red-hot Stanford in the Big Game, and Oregon outlasted Arizona in the back-and-forth, crazy-go-nuts, double-overtime game of the year. Now, for the first time ever, the winner of Oregon-Oregon State will be ensured a spot in the Granddaddy of Them All as the Pac-10 champion.

On the polls

There's a distinct Pac-10 flavor to my poll this week, although that's fair if you accept that its the best conference in the nation. The gaps in logic from the voters are still baffling to me. LSU lost to unranked Ole Miss and fell from eighth to fifteenth, while Stanford lost to ranked Cal and went from fourteenth to unranked. This makes sense if you remember that LSU was supposed to be great and rank them accordingly, but it's outrageous by any other measure.

1) Texas

Texas is doing what it's supposed to do, no more and no less. The opponents have been weak, but the results have been blowouts. There's certainly danger in the upcoming rivalry game with Texas A&M, but there haven't been any signs that the Horns are on the verge of an upset. The question is, how can Texas turn it on again in the BCS title game after playing so many bad teams?

2) Alabama

'Bama whaled on Chattanooga this week as the country gave a collective "So what?" The rivalry game with Auburn this week should be a mere formality as the Tide look ahead to the SEC championship game with Florida. They should be extra motivated after last year's loss kept them out of the BCS title game.

3) Florida

Florida looked alive for the first time in a while, but the caveat is that it came against Florida International. Urban Meyer can spin it anyway he wants, but the Gators have struggled to move the ball against every halfway decent team they've played. Can they find themselves against rival FSU and then claim another SEC title?

4) TCU

After an early 10-10 tie, the Horned Frogs shredded Wyoming Saturday. It appears TCU is playing for style points now, because the Mountain West is wrapped up and an undefeated season would be rewarded with a BCS bowl. It's still a long shot... but if Texas loses, TCU could find themselves in the national championship game.

5) Cincinnati

The idle week should have helped the Bearcats. The game this week versus Illinois should too. With two games left, Cincy has a great chance to go back-to-back in the Big East, but they'd be the first to tell you that goal is still a long way off. You can probably pencil in a win against the Illini, and then it's gloves off for the heavyweight fight with Pitt.

6) Georgia Tech

Even though Georgia is way down, I'm still pumped for their game with the Yellow Jackets this week. Tech has been on an unstoppable roll and now they've had a week off to prepare for their rival. The focus is on the ACC title game with Clemson, true, but there's always a good excuse to watch the flexbone go.

7) Boise State

The Broncos beat up Utah State Friday, but it goes without saying a lot of people are still not convinced. The shame is that BSU is a good team, but it's hard to have sympathy for them when they play a bunch of glorified high school squads. Can they beat out Iowa or Penn State for an at-large BCS bid? Word is that's the way the selection committees are leaning.

8) Pittsburgh

I didn't think it was fair to move Oregon over Pitt because the Panthers didn't play. They'll get a chance to prove themselves against a decent West Virginia team this week, and then it's off to the showdown with Cincy. Pitt was on such a roll before their bye it's fair to wonder if taking a week off actually hurt them.

9) Oregon

The Ducks got lucky, but they also showed a lot of heart in beating Arizona. They whole team, but particularly the defense, desperately needs the bye they're about to get. The Civil War is about to go nuclear and Oregon had better be ready. With that said, this team is still 7-1 in the Pac-10 and in great position to go to the Rose Bowl.

10) Ohio State

It was a rivalry game, so I guess the close Michigan score shouldn't weigh too heavily against the Buckeyes. Questions about the team - and the conference - abound, though. Is Ohio State really good, or did they just play an easy schedule? I feel like I've asked this before. It's worth noting that the Big 10 champion lost at home to the fifth-place Pac-10 team.

11) Oregon State

Wazzu is pretty bad and OSU didn't give them a prayer. Who will come out on top in the epic Civil War showdown? Both Oregon and OSU have a week off beforehand, which has been crucial for the winner the past two years. Oregon State seems to be peaking right on schedule and the Beavers would to pay back their rivals for the debacle in Corvallis last season.

12) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys have sleepwalked their way to 9-2, beating no one and losing to the two good squads they've seen. I generally support a lower-profile Big-12 program like Okie State, but I'm hoping that the Pokes go down to Oklahoma in the Bedlam game so they don't pick up a very undeserved BCS bowl bid.

13) Clemson

The win over Virginia wasn't too spectacular, but it's worth noting that the Tigers already had the division wrapped up with Boston College's loss earlier in the day. Clemson has been great over the past month and I cannot stress enough how much I'm looking forward to the Georgia Tech rematch in the ACC title game.

14) Virginia Tech

The Hokies have disappointed this season, it's true. But with a win this week, they could salvage a 9-3 record and pick up another ten-win season in their bowl. VT has been the ACC standard for the past several years, so there's no reason to think they can't finishe strong and rebound in 2010.

15) BYU

The Cougars finally looked like their old selves this week, smashing Air Force in preparation for their rivalry game with Utah. That matchup has lost some of its luster, but with second place in the conference and a decent bowl on the line it should still be a heated, fun affair. Both teams lost big to TCU, but Utah lost bigger. Right now, I'll take BYU.

16) LSU

Karma finally caught up to LSU and Les Miles, as the Tigers got jumped by Ole Miss Saturday. LSU's cred is quite questionable at this point. Their best win is still over a mediocre Georgia squad and they've played several close games with bad teams. Their biggest accomplishments to date are their losses to Florida and Alabama. Impressive.

17) USC

For the Trojans' sake, let's hope they did some soul-searching on their week off. It's official: the Rose Bowl is finally out of reach. But the Pac-10 is still a mess in its second tier, and USC might be rewarded with a Holiday Bowl berth if they win out. The UCLA game ought to be a breather, but the finale with Arizona could be a crazy one.

18) North Carolina

UNC has been so impressive over the last few weeks. If they'd only started the year better, they could have lived up to the preseason hype. As it stands, though, the Tar Heels can potentially finish with ten wins. That's pretty solid for a team that lost three of four in the middle of the year.

19) Penn State

So your name is Penn State. You just blew out rival Michigan State, but the Spartans are 6-6. You lost to the top two teams in your conference and your best win is over 8-4 Northwestern. Your schedule strength is abysmal. Yet you're ranked in the top fifteen in the BCS and are being talked about as a probable BCS bowl team. Thank someone, because you sure don't deserve it.

20) Utah

I've seen Utah several times, including once in person, and I have to say they're just not very impressive. To be sure, they deserve top-25 status, but this isn't the same team as last year. I think BYU is going to beat them fairly handily this week and the Utes will have to play for a ranking in their bowl game.

21) Miami (FL)

They came away with a sizable win, but the 'Canes looked real shaky for a couple quarters against Duke. The wheels have come off a little, but as I said last week, that might not be such a bad thing if Miami can turn this year into a lesson for the next. By the way, a 10-3 record with that schedule is totally respectable.

22) California

Look who's back from the dead! Cal rumbled back into the national picture with a gritty upset of Stanford and has now won five of six to close the year. The Pac-10 season started with major disappointment for the Bears, but now they're right back to where the realists projected them: third or fourth in the conference. They deserve credit for not giving up on the season.

23) Houston

The Cougars are going to hover around the bottom half of the rankings for the rest of the year, but that shouldn't take away from what they've accomplished in 2009. If not for a couple of defensive meltdowns, Houston could have been undefeated and mentioned in the same breath as TCU and Boise State.

24) Arizona

Like I said, it's unbelievable that the Cats could drop out of the rankings following an touchdown loss to Cal and a double-overtime loss to Oregon. Those are two quality losses, and 'Zona beat Oregon State too. They should be back in the rankings by season's end, or something is very wrong with the voters. But what else is new?

25) Stanford

Someone finally figured out how to slow down the Cardinal: give Toby Gerhart his 100 yards and hope Andrew Luck has a bad game. It worked for Cal, but you've got to think Stanford's going to be angry following the loss of not only the Big Game, but a shot at the Rose Bowl. I fear for their next opponent, which happens to be... Notre Dame. Life is sweet.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I just shake my head and grimace when I hear Iowa and Penn State are considered the leaders for one of the coveted at-large BCS bids. Didn't we see both these teams get exposed? Iowa by Ohio State and Northwestern, Penn State by Iowa themselves. Please, take a look at their schedules and tell me where the quality wins are. The best team Penn State beat on their pillowy-soft schedule was Northwestern, while the best team Iowa beat out of their delicious cupcake meal was Penn State. How can people possibly be suckered into giving the Big 10 two BCS bids again? If you look at the historical records, it's just laughable.

The conference has the most BCS bowl teams of all time at nineteen, but has won only eight of those games, the second-worst percentage among the conferences. Half of those wins came in the first two years of the BCS (1998 and 1999). Ohio State won the Fiesta Bowl in both 2002 and 2003, and the final two wins came from the Buckeyes and Penn State in 2005. That's right - the Big 10 has not won a BCS bowl in four years. But they've still been awarded two bids every season since, and will likely receive two this year!

However, the tale becomes even more damning if you look at the participants' opponents in those 2005 games. Penn State beat an 8-4 Florida State team (who won the ACC thanks to a miracle upset of superior Virginia Tech) by a score of 33-30 in triple overtime, a game before which the Nittany Lions were quoted as describing as an "insult" because of the quality of competition. That same year Ohio State beat everyone favorite BCS whipping boy, Notre Dame. So in the past seven years, the Big 10 has only won BCS bowls over a mediocre FSU team and a Notre Dame team that (surprise, surprise) didn't deserve to be there. The conference has lost six straight BCS games and six straight Rose Bowls. Yet it is quite likely that PSU or Iowa will go BCS bowling this year.

Oklahoma State is in a similar position as Iowa and Penn State, having lost at home to Texas and Houston. Their best win is over a Georgia squad that might finish 6-6, but because they were ranked highly in the preseason voters have been more than happy to give them the benefit of the doubt despite the fact that they haven't beaten anyone on a weak schedule.

All of this makes me wonder how long the voters can keep ignoring the Boise State-sized elephant in the room. BSU played a very weak schedule, it's true, but most people said they could get into a BCS bowl if most other teams lost one or probably two games. Well, guess what? Every team that is now being discussed as a BCS contender has two losses. If Oregon wins the Pac-10, how can you not put the Broncos into a BCS bowl? They would have the best win of any of the at-large teams! Penn State, Iowa and Oklahoma State have all played garbage schedules too, it's just that those teams lost when they faced real competition. Boise State didn't play but one hard team and thus didn't lose. By that standard, BSU is at least equal to those other teams.

On a happier note, how 'bout them Owls? Temple has done the unthinkable, pulling a resurrection for the ages with coach Al Golden. Right now the Owls sit at 9-2 with a shot at the MAC championship. Those words are absolutely shocking for me to write. It's impossible to put into words just how bad Temple has been historically. Worse than Oregon State. Worse than Rutgers. Impossibly bad. Temple has been playing football for over a hundred years and has recorded an astonishing nine winless seasons. Their greatest coach had a winning percentage of just 60. The program had just four winning season from 1938 to 1963 and reeled off 21 straight losses in the late 50s. In the past twenty years, Temple has had only one winning season before this one.

But that's not all. The Owls are also the only school to ever be kicked out of a conference. The reason they currently play in the MAC is because the Big East - yes, the Big East! - removed them following the 2004 season. What made the expulsion even more humiliating was the fact that the ACC had just raided the Big East of its three best teams (Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College) in an attempt to create a "superconference" a la the SEC and Big 12. The Big East was reeling and desperately needed teams to prevent itself from collapsing as a league. It still made the decision to boot the Owls, instead snatching up lowly Conference-USA teams in Louisville, USF and Cincinnati (although this looks like a good decision in retrospect).

But look at Temple now! I am truly glad to see this long-suffering program finally pick itself up and contend. The school had better lock up coach Golden to prevent him from bolting to better team - if he can do this with Temple, he might be the best coach in the nation.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

I had to think long and hard about my Heisman picks this week. No one has had an outstanding enough season to warrant top consideration. To reflect this, I decided to expand my list to include fringe contenders along with the guys most deserving. It's also true that I am only including offensive players, which does not accurately reflect who the best players in the country are. What can I say? I'm only human and it gets more and more difficult to follow defensive players as the year goes on.

On the outside looking in:

Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford

Gerhart was huge in the wins over Oregon and USC, but his chance probably ended with the loss to Cal. It's too bad, because no player in the country exerts his will on a defense like he does. He should be a finalist, but we don't live in a perfect world.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State

The heart and soul of the Beavers, Rodgers' only crime is not being flashy enough to get included on the ESPN highlight reels. All he does is produce yards and touchdowns. He won't get serious consideration this year, but next summer his campaign should start in earnest.

Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan

He's the best run-pass threat not named Masoli. Although great careers shouldn't be rewarded, I'd break that rule to honor him with at least an invite to New York. He wins pretty, he wins ugly, and CMU would be a .500 team without him. That's a Heisman resume to me.

Jeremiah Masoli, QB, Oregon

Just last week I said I didn't consider Masoli a Heisman candidate. Six touchdowns and a last-second drive to lead the team back from certain defeat changed that. It's tough to name a better player than Masoli right now. He has Oregon's offense humming again.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

I know he plays in a weak conference. But he's been golden since he stepped on the field as a freshma last season and plays brilliantly in every game. It's hard to see the Broncos beating any quality opponents without Moore. Leading the nation in passing efficiency has to count for something, doesn't it?

The main event:

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

I've been hearing for weeks that Ingram has been the most consistent back in football, but I've not seen it on the field. I can't reward the guy for playing behind a mammoth line and feasting on a diet of cupcakes that would make Charlie Weis and Mark Mangino blush.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Another week, another 400-yard effort from Keenum. His numbers are insane, but the win-loss record is now just so-so against that schedule. He probably will (criminally) be excluded from the ceremony in New York, though I'll always believe he was the most deserving player this season.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller's performance dipped ever so slightly this week, which was enough for me to move him down. I still think he's college football's best back and most explosive player, but it's hard to see him winning the top prize unless he engineers an upset of Georgia Tech in the ACC championship.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

The best player on the best team? That's been a common Heisman recipe in the past. There may be players slightly more deserving of the award, but McCoy is certainly worthy as well. Once Texas goes 13-0 and clinches a spot in the national championship game I think his supporters will have all the evidence they need. He's also probably the best QB in Texas history, which is a pretty high honor.