2011 Season Preview

Another season is upon us. The football-starved have been foaming at the mouth for months, and now the wait is only a few more short days. This year’s opening weekend slate is far meatier than what we usually have, which will only slake fans’ ravenous appetite from the get-go. There are the marquee matchups (LSU-Oregon, Boise State-Georgia), to be sure, but a number of other games have potential as well. TCU-Baylor on Friday should be entertaining, South Florida-Notre Dame could be very good, and Tulsa-Oklahoma will likely see a lot of points scored. Personally, I want to watch Virginia Tech take on Appalachian State, who has been placed on permanent must-watch status since their epic takedown of Michigan in 2007.

Sadly, no offseason is complete without off-field turmoil, and 2011 saw both the most and worst offseason turmoil of all time. The lingering questions about Auburn were upstaged by Ohio State, then Oregon. LSU would have probably come into the season with the largest spotlight by virtue of being the last team to face public embarrassment, but Miami (FL) was having none of that. “Scandal? We’ll show you what a real scandal is!” scoffed the Hurricanes, who collectively participated in the greatest Death Penalty-worthy activities since, well, SMU. Yeesh.

With everything fans were forced to suffer through the past few months, it will be wonderful to get back to the game. I’ll start with my customary top 25, and go from there to my conference picks.

Top 25

1) Alabama

Right now the polls say it’s Oklahoma. I can’t buy that yet. I watched the Sooners play a lot of close games last year against very inferior teams, and Bama is almost without a doubt the SEC’s best. Last time I checked, that qualified a team for number one status. The defense is nasty and Trent Richardson is scary good.

2) Oklahoma

Of course, with that said, Oklahoma does have an embarrassment of offensive talent and should take the Big 12 without too much difficulty. The non-conference matchup with Florida State is intriguing, but the Sooners will be favored in every game this season. Can they actually come through in a BCS bowl against a worthy opponent?

3) Oregon

…I guess. The question mark regarding the offensive line is huge. Does Oregon have it in their nature to tangle physically with the nation’s other elite squads? The way the team is built is antithetical to the way championship teams have been built for decades. Chip Kelly is a brilliant offensive mind, but he hasn’t solved this yet. We’ll see.

4) Boise State

The Broncos won’t get a chance to prove this ranking during the season, unfortunately (and no, I’m not forgetting about the Georgia game). At this point it seems reasonable to give them the benefit of the doubt and wait until they win their league to evaluate them. Averaging a single loss over the last five years earns you that.

5) LSU

This was a hard team to figure even before the suspensions. I wasn’t buying the national title talk originally, but with all the hype around the Tigers you were led to believe they were going to be good. Now? I really don’t know. I can at least say the defense will be solid, and that tends to win you games.

6) Stanford

I actually think Stanford has been overrated this offseason, but there’s not another team to put ahead of them. Andrew Luck is outstanding, but the truth is that it’s hard to have sustained success on the Farm. They have the same line problems as Oregon, and less skill position talent.

7) Texas A&M

I’m a believer in the defense that’s been built in College Station, and Ryan Tannehill is a good quarterback. I doubt they can beat out Oklahoma for the conference crown, but the Aggies should still be a quality team and a tough out for anyone. The schedule sets up nicely for them to make a statement against some quality teams.

8) Wisconsin

Wisconsin got a little exposed in the Rose Bowl last year, but now the Badgers finally have something they haven’t seen in years: a game-changing QB. NCSU transfer Russell Wilson is the real deal, and he gives Wisconsin a dimension not seen for at least a decade. Watch the offensive line turnover, though.

9) Virginia Tech

Tech in 2011 might cause pollsters to reevaluate their definition of “good.” How well can you really judge a decent team that plays such a paper-soft schedule? But… the ACC is still the ACC, and the Hokies still have Florida State’s number. At minimum, this is a 10-win team.

10) Nebraska

I’ll say it up front: Taylor Martinez is a laughable excuse for a passer. But that’s how they’ve been doing it in Lincoln for decades, so you can’t begrudge the Cornhuskers for anointing Martinez as a savior. I say Nebraska makes the first Big 10 (sorry, B16) title game.

11) Florida State

Yes, FSU has finally made some strides back towards national relevance. But, but, but… this team is just flat-out overrated. The Seminoles got waxed by every good squad (and a couple average ones) they saw last year. I’ve said it before and I’ll it again – FSU has to prove it on the field before I’ll buy in. We’ve heard this song too many times before.

12) Oklahoma State

This is one of those teams people seem to fall in love with as a “darkhorse.” It’s understandable; the offense is explosive and the skill talent has some big names. But for all their recent improvement, the Cowboys still can’t A) put together a real defense or B) beat Oklahoma. Some things never change.

13) TCU

Losing QB Andy Dalton is a big deal, but there’s such a serene feeling regarding the well-being of the TCU program that I just can’t help but believe. Gary Patterson runs the best defensive scheme in the country, and the Horned Frogs shouldn’t suffer a huge drop-off from where they’ve been the past few seasons.

14) Arkansas

Poor, poor Arkansas. If only the Razorbacks didn’t play in the SEC West. I really wanted this to be the year the team broke through, but losing stud running back Knile Davis crushed those hopes. New QB Tyler Wilson should be very good, but it isn’t going to be enough.

15) South Carolina

This is the perfect ranking for the “other” USC, who won the watered-down SEC East last year but impressed nobody outside their own fan base. They’ll have a great chance for a repeat this season, but there’s no chance the Gamecocks can match up with the might of their league’s other division.

16) Notre Dame

It kills me to say it, but Notre Dame will probably deserve to be ranked this year. The team has finally put together an all-around quality squad. However, the Irish really could have used one of their patented creampuff schedules – instead, they’ll face a nasty slate that includes some of the top non-BCS schools along with their traditional rivals.

17) Ohio State

After the nightmare offseason they saw, I’m sure the Buckeye players are ready to take it to every team they face. Unfortunately, this is simply not the caliber of OSU team we’ve seen in the past decade. They’ve still got a lot of talent, but there’s no way the off-field stuff doesn’t bother them a little.

18) Michigan State

Let’s be honest. Despite their gaudy record last year, did anybody really think the Spartans were that good? Outside of a quality win over Wisconsin, MSU beat no one of note and was completely humiliated against Iowa and Alabama. This team can compete in the Big 10, but there is a talent gap there.

19) Missouri

Mizzou has carved out a nice niche over the last few years as a top-20-ish team who can regularly stay ranked, win the easy games and occasionally upset the big boys. Case in point: 2011’s consecutive victories over the two best teams in the conference, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The Tigers won’t be elite, but they should be just fine.

20) Arizona State

This is a best-case ranking. Before all the preseason injuries, I would have gladly anointed the Sun Devils as the team to beat in the Pac-12 South. Now it’s all very iffy. With USC ineligible, this should be ASU’s division to lose… but this team has seen high expectations in the past, and it hasn’t ended well.

21) Mississippi State

I think this is generous. MSU has definitely gotten better under Dan Mullen, but the fact remains that the Bulldogs beat absolutely no one last season. And oh yeah, last time I checked, they still play in the SEC West, so let’s hold off on giving these guys anything before they earn it.

22) West Virginia

The Big East is lousy, but WVU still represents its most respectable argument against losing automatic-qualifier status. Much has been made of the marriage between an already-decent offense and new coach Dana Holgersen, who previously oversaw explosive and innovative attacks at Houston, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.

23) USC

Once again ineligible for the postseason and playing for pride, the Trojans face a difficult road in 2011. After losing the biggest game on the schedule last year against Oregon, SC seemed to shut it down. They have to guard against that this year, but I still see them as a top-25 team talent-wise.

24) Houston

If Case Keenum has fully recovered, look out. Houston has been nigh-unstoppable with their star QB at the helm for multiple seasons. If things break right, this could be the best non-BCS team outside of Boise State. If not… at least the Cougars should score a lot. They always do.

25) Utah

This might be a stretch. However, I have a lot of faith in the culture at the “original BCS buster,” now playing the role of defector. The Utes will surely be surprised by some of what they see in their new conference, but I have a feeling that some of the Pac-12 teams will get a little surprise too.

There are also several teams I considered for the top 25, but rejected for various reasons. Some of them are in the AP or Coaches’ rankings. The most notable absences are:

Georgia

I get the idea that a team can improve coming off a down year. But really? The Bulldogs were 6-7 last season, going out with a whimper in a 10-6 loss to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl. This team can’t hope to compete with the higher-end SEC squads, and the lofty preseason expectations that have been placed on them are unfair.

Florida

The Gators were mediocre last year, playing in a January bowl game only because of the SEC’s marvelous postseason tie-ins. A coaching change is also going to hurt any hopes of consistency from last year as the team switches to new schemes. The fact that Florida is ranked in the preseason is only slightly less appalling than the voters’ ranking of…

Texas

To be fair, only the Coaches’ Poll includes Texas, but the difference is insubstantial because the Longhorns are 26^th in the AP. Either way… what? Did anyone actually watch Texas last season? What was most impressive? The 2-6 conference record? The three-touchdown home shellacking at the hands of 4-8 UCLA? Perhaps the defection of longtime head-coach-in-waiting Will Muschamp to Florida? Ridiculous.

Penn State

Speaking of ridiculous, how about the Nittany Lions? I can’t remember the last time Penn State had a halfway decent QB. The problem is that college football is increasingly becoming a quarterback-dominated sport, and JoePa still thinks he can plug in any random athlete at the position and win. This would be an issue even if Rob Bolden wasn’t already doing the world’s worst impression of Taylor Martinez.

Auburn

And finally, Auburn. Yep, the 2010 champs are nowhere to be seen in my top 25. As with the other snub-ees listed here, that doesn’t mean they couldn’t become one in time. But with the personnel losses the Tigers saw, along with the buzzsaw that is the SEC West, there’s no way any rational person could rank these guys right now.

Conference Outlook

ACC

Predicted champion: Florida State over Virginia Tech

I know I ranked VT higher than FSU. I also said the Noles couldn’t beat the Hokies. While I do consider Tech the team with the better pedigree, I also think Florida State could improve over the course of the season to the point that they could win the title game. There’s very little doubt that these two teams will win their respective divisions, despite the extreme parity in the conference.

Big 10

Predicted champion: Wisconsin over Nebraska

Ohio State would have been the obvious choice, but now… not so much. Wisconsin shouldn’t really have a whole lot of other competition in the Leaders division. Michigan State might challenge Nebraska for the Legends title, but the Spartans were really exposed last year in the big games they played and I don’t see them as a real threat. As a sleeper pick, Michigan might be a surprise, but changing coaches and schemes doesn’t bode well for the Wolverines’ league title chances.

Big 12

Predicted champion: Oklahoma

The new-look Big 12 ought to be pretty exciting without a conference championship game. There’s no longer the same room for error in interdivision play, which will hopefully make each contest more meaningful. You also have to tip your cap to the league for expanding to a nine-game conference schedule. In the end, though, I still don’t see Texas A&M or Oklahoma State (the main challengers) unseating Oklahoma.

Big East

Predicted champion: West Virginia

Yes, there’s USF and Pittsburgh too, but I’d prefer to stick with the team I know will consistently perform. The Mountaineers haven’t had a sub-.500 conference record in a decade, and only once have the ‘Eers finished with fewer than five league victories (4-2 in 2004). Pitt has disappointed many times when burdened by expectations, and USF is just schizophrenic. Geno Smith is the best QB in the conference. Argument over.

Conference USA

Predicted champion: Houston over UCF

The CUSA, as I like to call it, is actually kind of stacked this year. There are a half-dozen good teams vying for the title, split pretty evenly between divisions. Houston (if the Cougars can return to form) is the obvious pick in the West, but Tulsa and SMU are also really solid. In the East, you’ve got Central Florida, Southern Miss and East Carolina. I like a lot of these schools, but my respect for Case Keenum overrides all. This should be the year the Houston finally breaks through.

MAC

Predicted champion: Northern Illinois over Ohio

This league can be excruciating to pick because the best team tends to get upset every year in the title game. I’m taking NIU mostly out of spite because they were the MAC’s best squad last season and predictably blew it in the championship game. Toledo is the most formidable challenger to the Huskies in the West thanks to star receiver Eric Page. In the end I say it’ll be NIU. Miami (OH) probably won’t repeat last season’s magical run, thus I’m taking Ohio out of the East.

Mountain West

Predicted champion: Boise State

Air Force is a scary sleeper and TCU should still be a tough out, but you just can’t pick against Boise. Say what you will about their opposition. In the past five years, the Broncos are 51-5 with a pair of undefeated seasons. They should go undefeated again this year. TCU claims they’re looking forward to one last hurrah in the MWC, but I don’t see how the looming move to the Big East doesn’t have an impact on their play. The Horned Frogs will also likely take a slight step back from last season.

Pac-12

Prediction champion: Oregon over Utah

My in-depth Pac-12 preview is below.

SEC

Predicted champion: Alabama over South Carolina

There’s been a lot of hyperbole around this Alabama squad, some of it including the phrase “best defense of all time.” That remains to be seen (Florida heard the same praise in 2009 and came up short), but it’s pretty clear that Alabama is the best team in the West. As there are probably four teams in that division superior to anyone in the East, that makes the Tide the obvious pick. Auburn is coming down hard after their charmed 2010 season, LSU has some off-field concerns, and Arkansas still isn’t quite there. If Steve Spurrier retains one iota of his former coaching genius, the Gamecocks should take the East. They’ll prove a lovely sacrifice for boys from Tuscaloosa.

Sun Belt

Prediction champion: Troy

Ah, the good old Sun Belt. Easily the worst conference, though they’ll have competition once the WAC gets gutted in 2012! I see Middle Tennessee State, Troy and 2010 champ Florida International (who came out of nowhere) as the legit contenders, and all three teams have a solid shot. However, MTSU lost all-purpose, all-everything star Dwight Dasher, and FIU is new to success at this level. Troy has won or shared the SBC title for five years running, so this seems a pretty safe choice.

WAC

Predicted champion: Hawai’i

I have some reservations about selecting the Warriors. Fellow 2010 co-champ Nevada is still around, and Fresno State has put together another decent squad. However, you have to figure losing QB Colin Kaepernick will hurt the Wolf Pack at some point. Fresno is probably the lesser threat, but they do have David Carr’s younger brother at the helm… maybe the Bulldogs can conjure up some 2001 magic? Possible, but I’m a sucker for the Run and Shoot, and Hawai’i runs it as well as anyone.

Pac-12 Preview

To the Pac-12! New teams, new coaches, new TV contract! The champion, though, will be one we’ve seen before. It’s really a toss-up between Oregon and Stanford, who are hands-down the two best teams in the conference. Before I get to the superior North division, however, I’d like to look at the South.

As most analysts have noted, the South is wide open. USC would likely be the favorite, but there’s that little issue of a postseason ban. From there we turn to Arizona State, a team I said all along should be the division champ. However, ASU has seen an unbelievable amount of preseason injuries and as such I’m hesitant to tab them to play in the inaugural Pac-12 title game. I think the Sun Devils are certainly more talented than Utah, who I’ve picked to actually win the South. The reasons for the pick are these: the Utes should adjust reasonably well to their conference move (far better than Colorado, to be sure); they draw an impossibly favorable schedule, missing Oregon and Stanford and hosting ASU; their home-field altitude advantage is very underrated, and the other Pac-12 schools will potentially view them as less of a threat because it’s their first year in a BCS league.

The only other South team that might challenge Utah is Arizona, who has an impressive array of talent at the skill positions. But have you seen the line situation? ‘Zona replaces all five starting lineman, returning just one start along the entire front. No team ever excels in those circumstances. As for UCLA… I don’t think so. The Bruins haven’t seriously challenged for the conference crown in a decade. That leaves Colorado. Where to begin? The Buffaloes might have been in line for a decent season with a halfway accommodating schedule. Instead the Buffs face what is likely the nation’s most difficult slog, with nine Pac-12 games, a let’s-not-count-it-as-a-conference-game-even-though-it-is matchup with Cal, and oh yeah, three nonleague away games at Hawai’i, Ohio State and rival Colorado State. Did I mention the Buffs play all 13 games without a bye? Lord have mercy.

So that brings us back around to the North, where realistically we’re talking Oregon, Stanford, and everybody else. Washington State will continue to improve (I’m going out on a limb with three wins this year!), Cal will continue to be an enigmatic mess (but a talented one!), and Oregon State will continue to valiantly battle the gods of attrition in the hopes of fielding the first team in NCAA history without knee ligaments. Just kidding. But not really. I’ve read a lot about how Washington will manage to get better without Jake Locker somehow and I can’t really say I buy it. Chris Polk is a monster, sure, but there is still a definite talent gap between the Huskies and best teams in the conference.

In the end it comes down to Oregon and Stanford, one of which will win the North and the Pac-12. It’s been very difficult to decide which team will prevail. Much has been made of Oregon’s need to replace multiple starters on the offensive line, but for some reason no one has mentioned that Stanford is facing the exact same problem. In fact, I would argue that the Cardinal have a tougher job in this respect, because they have to replace an All-American center in Chase Beeler. A much more important factor is going to be the fact that Stanford hosts the Ducks this year. The last time Oregon went to Palo Alto they lost, and without their home-field edge last season it’s highly likely the Ducks would have been unable to come roaring back from an early 18-point deficit. Or quacking back, if you like. It’s for this reason that I long felt Stanford would win this game… but I finally decided that Oregon’s athletic advantage would be just enough for UO to pull through. It’s going to a fantastic game, though.

Random Thoughts and Observations

There’s not much more I can say about this offseason. The news just seemed to get worse and worse with each week. How can anyone really focus on the game with the clouds hanging over the sport right now? Well, we will, because that’s what we fans do. But I stand by what I wrote in July regarding Oregon (and any team in that situation, really) and hope that the NCAA’s new policies will prove a stronger deterrent to the blatant rule-breaking we’ve seen of late. And if schools are found guilty… there might never be a better time to bring back the Death Penalty. If a school ever deserved it, it would be Miami (FL). If the NCAA hit the Hurricanes with a complete football ban, would it finally serve to put everyone on notice that the days of cheating and corruption are over? Something to ponder.

The SEC is everyone’s favorite bad guy these days, but the member schools’ presidents and regents made a hugely important and wise decision to decline Texas A&M’s pathetic “look at me” plea to join. The national landscape had already been shaken by the conference changes we saw in the last year, even if some (such as the Pac-16) turned out to be only a mirage. A&M’s cowardly abandonment of the Big 12 would have turned those seemingly earth-shattering shifts into mere tremors. If the Pac-16 had formed, it would have eventually forced the other power conferences (Big 10, SEC, ACC) to expand to 16 teams as well, ushering in an exciting new era but simultaneously crushing any chance of a truly even playing field for all time. I wrote about the implications of such a system last summer, fearful for the well-being of the sport.

However, the transition the Pac-16 would have ushered in would have seemed calm and cautious compared to what Texas A&M’s selfish move might have wrought. For the SEC to take the Aggies as its 13^th school, it would have required, at minimum, a 14^th school to even the divisions. But let’s be honest – the SEC would never have stopped there. 16 teams makes much more sense than 14, and the conference would have seen that Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott’s dream of a superconference was firmly within their grasp. And who would turn down an invite to the SEC? It would have set off another round of desperate conference leaps and short-sighted decisions based solely on greed.

I call Texas A&M’s actions selfish because that is absolutely what they are. The Aggies have long abhorred being in rival Texas’ shadow, and their lack of success in the past decade has only inflamed a proud fanbase that can still remember the glory days of the Southwest Conference. To that I say, too bad. In sports things are cyclical, in college football even more so. A&M improved last season, and could possibly win the Big 12 this year. But that’s clearly not enough.

Texas A&M is jealous of Texas’s TV deals, and rightfully so. Texas has long held an unfair advantage in TV revenue, and part of their deal to stay in the Big 12 included making sure the school would continue to receive more an unequal portion of the pie. On top of that, there’s the new Longhorn Network, which many people believe should be a violation of NCAA rules because of which games the LHN planned to broadcast, including conference matchups and high school contests. The LHN treads in ethically murky water and undoubtedly creates an unfair advantage for Texas.

Too which I say, again, too bad. There are unfair advantages in TV revenue and recruiting all over the country. Other schools have just decided to play by the rules that exist and not whine about it. A&M’s childish attempt to take their ball and go home so that the entire Big 12 suffers is outrageous and beyond selfish. Everyone already knows the Big 12 is doomed. That writing was on the wall as soon as Colorado and Nebraska jumped ship. But by leaving the league just one year later, A&M is potentially throwing the entire country into disarray. For what? For their own satisfaction?

Thankfully, the SEC turned down the Aggies’ laughable request for at least a year, which will at least give everyone a chance to think about how they want to proceed with conference expansion in the future. As I write this, A&M has already declared its intention to leave the Big 12, and the school may yet join the SEC as its 13^th member. But not today. I’m critical of many decisions the SEC has made, such as jump-starting the silly “conference championship game” era and promoting the welfare of the entire league over actual school affiliation. But for once, the SEC saved college football from itself.

The 2011 season has begun with a cloud of bad press and scandal. Here’s one person who hopes to see this sport ride out the tumult for the better. There are a few short days remaining before the celebration begins. Let the play on the field this season make it even better than the last.

Oh, and I suppose you want a Heisman Watch list. By all means:

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Any questions?