Bowls get heavy

I went an unfortunate 6-5 in the opening week, thanks to choke jobs by Minnesota, Bowling Green and Boise State. Of course, nothing could match the original Coug team, Washington State: leading 45-30 with less than five minutes to play, Wazzu managed to fumble twice, give up two touchdowns and a two-point conversion and lose on a field goal as time expired. Oh, Cougs. There's always next year. For me, there's another week for redemption before the title game, so on to the second week of bowls! All times are, as always, Pacific.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Rutgers (6-6) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

December 28, 9:00 a.m.

This is another matchup that, at least on paper, seems like a yawner. Notre Dame, for all its faults, won eight games against a tough schedule and looked like a BCS-conference team. Rutgers dropped a shootout to Fresno State to start the season, which was a portent of things to come: after winning four straight against average competition, the Scarlet Knights dropped five of seven to finish at .500 on the year. Even in the weak American Athletic Conference Rutgers couldn’t manage more than three wins. At times Notre Dame struggled to find an offensive identity, but the Fighting Irish still played reasonably good defense (against a much more difficult schedule). Rutgers is one of the few bowl teams giving up more points than it scores, which is never a good sign. Unless something crazy happens, I’ll take the Irish.

Watchability: 1. Rutgers is bad and Notre Dame doesn’t have any household names.

Belk Bowl

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

December 28, 12:20 p.m.

Cincinnati nearly stole the AAC’s BCS bid in the final weekend only to lose to rival Louisville and get relegated to the Belk Bowl. Things could be worse. The Bearcats could be North Carolina, which started a dreadful 1-5 before winning five straight and then almost knocking off Duke. UNC was one of 2013’s true enigmas, capable of blowing up on anyone but also strangely unable to get plays when necessary (at least for the first half of the season). Cincy was a bit more predictable; as a pretty solid – but not great – team, the Bearcats ran through most of the AAC with ease. I’m tempted to take the Tar Heels, given how much UNC seemed to improve over the back half of the year… but I just can’t, even with my laundry list of reservations about picking American teams. Cincy has just been so much more consistent.

Watchability: 2. Brendon Kay (Cincinnati) and Bryn Renner (UNC) are good QB’s, but that’s about it.

Russell Athletic Bowl

Miami (FL) (9-3) vs. Louisville (11-1)

December 28, 3:45 p.m.

To be clear: Louisville didn’t play half the schedule Miami did. If the Cardinals played in the ACC instead of the AAC, it’s unlikely they’d have just one loss. However, I’m still taking Louisville in this game. It’s potentially Teddy Bridgewater’s last collegiate game and the Cards are capable of playing at a higher level than Miami can reach. Of course, an even bigger reason to take Louisville is recent history. We all saw what happened to Miami when Duke Johnson went down. After the ‘Canes star RB blew out his knee the team lost three straight, only righting the ship against bad Virginia and Pitt squads. Louisville has looked disinterested at times this year against the softer parts of the schedule, but this is a very talented group that should win this game.

Watchability: 3. With Johnson it probably would have been higher.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Michigan (7-5) vs. Kansas State (7-5)

December 28, 7:15 p.m.

A very interesting matchup here between one of the best power-conference schools in history and one of the worst. More was expected out of both these squads this year, so hopefully they’ll be fighting like mad to avoid falling to an ugly 7-6. At least KSU had a winning record in conference this year. UM lost five of seven after a 5-0 start and repeatedly found ways to lose games despite playing a relatively average schedule (once again, this ain’t your father’s Big Ten). Kansas State rebounded from a 2-4 start to post a decent finish, though most of the wins were against mediocre competition. In the end I have to believe Michigan can turn this thing around enough to get a win; the Wolverines are just too talented to lose to this Wildcats team. Bill Snyder’s guys always play hard, but they should be outclassed by Big Blue’s offensive weapons.

Watchability: 3. Both teams should have been better than this.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Middle Tennessee (8-4) vs. Navy (8-4)

December 30, 8:45 a.m.

I have high hopes for this contest. Middle Tennessee posted a very solid record, closing out with five straight (conference) wins, while Navy was two close losses away from being a top-15 team. Both schools run the ball well, though of course the Midshipmen’s option is the superior attack. The Blue Raiders have a nice run-pass balance on the year and went 6-2 in the decent Conference USA – impressive considering MTSU was playing in the Sun Belt a year ago. The defenses are both middling, so there’s no reason to think we’ll see any kind of slugfest. Given the difference in philosophies of the two offenses, a shootout might even be in order. I’m going to go slightly against my own preference and take Middle Tennessee; though there’s always question marks when playing an option team, I think the Blue Raiders’ balance will win the day.

Watchability: 3, but could jump to a 4 depending on how the defenses play.

  

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Ole Miss (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

December 30, 12:15 p.m.

It’s hard to know how this game will play out. One the one hand, Ole Miss didn’t really do much outside of the upset of LSU… but neither did Georgia Tech. At the end of the season the Rebels’ win over Texas looks good, but at the time UT was absolutely horrendous. The same applies to Tech’s blowout of Duke, which came before the Blue Devils went on their magic run. Everyone knows what to expect with the Yellow Jackets: you’re going to see the option and lots of it. Ole Miss runs a somewhat-up-tempo semi-spread that has nonetheless been pretty effective. The SEC has earned respect for its performance in bowl games and I think that has to apply here. With the athletes the Rebels have on the defensive side and a month to prepare, I don’t see Tech running wild on Ole Miss. It shouldn’t be a blowout, but I don’t trust the Yellow Jackets in the postseason.

Watchability: 3. It’s a decent matchup, but there aren’t any stars.

Valero Alamo Bowl

Oregon (10-2) vs. Texas (8-4)

December 30, 3:45 p.m.

With apologies to Mack Brown, the bizarre coaching situation at Texas will have little to do with the outcome of this game. It’s routine for commentators to posit that a coach on his way out will inspire the team, but that’s a completely unprovable concept. The simple truth is that Oregon is a better football team than Texas. The Ducks’ play will be what decides this game. If the team from the first two months of the season shows up, UT is going to get wiped off the map. When clicking, the Ducks have too many weapons offensively for Texas to contain and can force turnovers from a sometimes-shaky Longhorns attack. However, if Oregon’s players don’t want to be there – highly possible – and play the way they did in November, UT will control the clock and run the ball down UO’s throat for the win. It’s that simple. I’ll bet Oregon shows up and wins the game.

Watchability: 3. There’s potential for it to be higher, but you can’t make promises with these teams.

  

National University Holiday Bowl

Arizona State (10-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

December 30, 7:15 p.m.

This is a little tricky. On paper, ASU was the vastly better team in 2013 and should win. But I’ve seen “average” TTU teams go nuts in the postseason before, when opponents aren’t ready for the all-out passing barrage and get behind in a hurry. Throw in the fact that the Red Raiders will be playing for a lot of pride after losing five straight and this matchup gets more interesting. I’m not able to pull the trigger on a big upset for a couple of reasons, though. First, there’s the awful Texas Tech defense, which gives up more than 30 points a game. Then there’s the matter of balance. I don’t like the Red Raiders’ chances against a team capable of throwing nearly as well as they can AND adept at running the ball. ASU’s kryptonite is Stanford, and Tech ain’t Stanford.

Watchability: 4. As long as you like scoring.

  

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Arizona (7-5) vs. Boston College (7-5)

December 31, 9:30 a.m.

Arizona and Boston College both love to run the ball and can’t throw, but they go about it in different ways. BC favors a more traditional straight-ahead attack, whereas ‘Zona spreads you out and read-options you to death. This is another tough matchup to pick. The Wildcats competed in a tougher conference and have by far the best win among the two schools (Oregon). However, neither team plays very good defense and I’m not sure either could survive a bad start that puts them in a hole. If the Eagles establish the run early, ‘Zona could be in trouble. In the end, I’ll take the Wildcats because it seems like a safer bet, but there’s no reason to think BC can’t win this game.

Watchability: 4. You don’t often see two RB’s like UA’s Ka’Deem Carey and BC’s Andre Williams.

  

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. UCLA (9-3)

December 31, 11:00 a.m.

Yet another dangerous game to pick. After UCLA’s bowl performance last season, can anyone really trust the Bruins? Yet there’s no doubt UCLA is a good team overall and is coming off a quality win over rival USC in the finale. Virginia Tech is an equally shaky option, ending the season with losses in three of the final five games, including a couple of truly embarrassing ones. It’s a pretty sharp clash of styles too, as the Hokies are (as always) strong on defense and middling offensively, much the opposite of the high-flying Bruins. In these games I almost always go with the better defensive side, but for every reservation I have about UCLA I have two for Tech. The Hokies were a shaky 8-4, barely pulling out several wins. Throw in the Pac-12’s superiority (we think) and I have to take UCLA.

Watchability: 3. The pace at which this game will be played is a complete mystery.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Rice (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (6-6)

December 31, 1:00 p.m.

I hate that the Conference USA champion has to play a .500 SEC team that doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near a bowl. Unfortunately, MSU will probably win. Although the Owls score about a TD more per game, the offenses are almost exactly equal in yardage output. The Bulldogs throw while the Owls run, but the fact that those numbers are so similar despite MSU’s weak record (in a far superior league) doesn’t bode well for Rice. No one is going to argue Rice’s athletes are on the same level as a team from the SEC, even a mediocre one like MSU. I’ve seen Owls quarterback Taylor McHargue play and was not impressed; I predict the Bulldogs will use the layoff to devise schemes to fluster his running and stifle his average passing threat. I’m not sure if this qualifies as an upset, but there you go.

Watchability: 1. Even if they win, the Bulldogs are bad. Rice isn’t amazing either.

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Duke (10-3) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)

December 31, 5:00 p.m.

You can see why this game got the prime-time slot on New Year’s Eve. The Blue Devils fielded their best team ever in 2013 and A&M, though a disappointment, is very exciting. Duke doesn’t do anything spectacular offensively (though receiver Jamison Crowder is a stud), so the assumption is that the Blue Devils must play great D. Not really; the team’s 24.7 points allowed per game rank just inside the top 50. Much has been made of the Aggies’ horrendous defense, but A&M has the offense to back it up, churning out more than 500 yards a game. I think Duke should be able to score fairly easily on aTm, but the Aggies will do the same. In a contest like this, the proven commodity is the safest bet. We know that against bad-to-average defenses, Johnny Manziel can score. In the A&M QB’s final college game, I think he goes out with a bang.

Watchability: 4. I expect scoring.

Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

Nebraska (8-4) vs. Georgia (8-4)

January 1, 9:00 a.m.

What a weird year for both these schools. The Cornhuskers and Bulldogs each enter the Gator Bowl at 8-4, but under very different circumstances. Both teams were expected to challenge for league titles in 2013 and fell short, Georgia because of injuries and Nebraska because of incompetence (although it’s worth noting the Huskers did lose QB Taylor Martinez for a large stretch). All four of UGA’s losses were either to quality teams or completely fluky (or both!). Nebraska did suffer losses to good teams in UCLA and Michigan State, but just failed to show up against Minnesota and Iowa. I would normally go against the team without an all-star QB (UGA), but given the bizarre coaching situation in Lincoln there’s no way I’m taking the Cornhuskers. I have zero confidence in Nebraska’s mental state.

Watchability: 3. It should have been so, so much higher. Curse you, injuries!

Heart of Dallas Bowl

UNLV (7-5) vs. North Texas (8-4)

January 1, 9:00 a.m.

Were this game on another day it might actually deserve to be watched. UNLV has had a pretty successful season by the Rebels’ standards, while UNT is one of the hottest teams in the country, dropping just one game by a single score since the beginning of October. However, by trying to horn in on New Year’s Day, the Heart of Dallas Bowl is rightfully shamed to ESPNU. As for the game, UNLV has a pretty solid QB-RB-WR troika in Caleb Herring, Tim Cornett and Devante Davis, respectively. The problem is the defense. The Rebels give up 31.5 points per game (slightly more than they themselves average), while the Mean Green are in the top 10 in scoring defense at just 18.1. UNT can match UNLV point-for-point but plays far better defense, so the pick is obvious.

Watchability: 2. There’s some intrigue here, but among the rest of the New Year’s fare it’s not that impressive.

Outback Bowl

Iowa (8-4) vs. LSU (9-3)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

With Tigers’ QB Zach Mettenberger lost this matchup becomes a lot more interesting. Iowa quietly put together a nice year, going 8-4 with competitive losses to Northern Illinois and the three best teams in the Big Ten (Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin). As usual, Kirk Ferentz has coached his guys to a solid defensive finish, but the revelation has been young Jake Rudock at QB. Of course, even in a “down” year LSU still managed a pretty good defense of its own and was scorching hot offensively until Mettenberger went down. There are obviously question marks about his replacement(s), but I think even with a new signal-caller LSU will win. The Tigers are more talented across the board and feature some serious next-level weapons Iowa simply can’t match, including a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham as well as bruising RB Jeremy Hill.

Watchability: 3. The game should be closer with Mettenberger out.

Capital One Bowl

Wisconsin (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

Look, I like Wisconsin. The Badgers got jobbed at ASU, played Ohio State close and are frighteningly dominant on the ground. But I think this squad is in for a rude awakening against Carolina. The Gamecocks have the ability to slow the power running attack Wisky so favors and are multiple enough on offense to give the Badgers serious problems. There are two weapons Wisconsin features above all: RB Melvin Gordon and WR Jared Abbrederis. I know it, you know it and SC knows it. The Gamecocks, meanwhile, have two playmakers at seemingly every position, including QB. If not for a fluky loss to Tennessee this team could be playing in the BCS Championship. I don’t see South Carolina allowing Wisconsin to just bowl them over (no pun intended).

Watchability: 5. I’m excited to see how this game unfolds.

Rose Bowl

Michigan State (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-2)

January 1, 2:00 p.m.

Ah, the 100^th Rose Bowl… and the last Rose Bowl as we know it. When the playoff begins the oft-disrupted (in recent years) Pac-10/12 vs. Big Ten matchup will essentially be dead, so cherish this one final moment of innocence in college football. Michigan State has played the best defense in the country this season, and it isn’t particularly close; the Spartans lead the nation in yards allowed per game (248.2) and yards per play (3.94). Stanford is no slouch either, but even though the Cardinal rank in the top 15 they still give up nearly 100 yards a game and a full yard per play more. Both middling offenses will find it tough going against these stout D’s, so expect a repeat of last year’s Stanford – Wisconsin slugfest. This is kind of game Stanford usually wins, but MSU does the same thing. I bet against the Cardinal at my own peril, but MSU has just been so good this year defensively – without the characteristic lapses that plague Stanford. I’ll go with MSU.

Watchability: 5. Two elite defensive teams in the 100^th Rose Bowl, as it was meant to be.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Central Florida vs. Baylor

January 1, 5:30 p.m.

I have more faith in UCF than most people and have championed the Knights all year. Central plays very good defense and has displayed a kind of plucky never-say-die mentality that wins games. However, even with that to fall back on the Knights are probably overmatched in this game. Baylor was the nation’s best offense statistically and achieved its record in a stronger conference, even though the AAC turned out better than was expected. If the Bears can score 47 points a game in the Big 12, it’s hard to imagine they won’t score against UCF. It’s not as if the Knights ended the year on a high note, either; three of the final four wins came by a total of ten points, and not against good competition. Baylor should cap off this dream season with a rousing offensive assault.

Watchability: 4. There should be scoring, but there’s some blowout potential.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma (10-2) vs. Alabama (11-1)

January 2, 5:30 p.m.

On paper this is about as easy a matchup to pick as exists all bowl season. Alabama was one fluke play from going undefeated and meeting Florida State in the national championship. Oklahoma was blown out by two Texas schools (Baylor and UT) and is only playing in the BCS because of proximity to the Sugar Bowl. The Sooners struggled to find offensive balance all year (indeed, until the Bedlam upset) and gave up far more yards and points than is acceptable given their talent level. The Crimson Tide, on the other hand, again featured one of the nation’s best defensive units. There’s some question about the ‘Bama O-line after it repeatedly struggled to dominate against quality competition, but OU hasn’t been good enough this year to take advantage of that – once again, on paper. Unless there’s a repeat of the Utah upset in 2008, Alabama should roll.

Watchability: 5. Two of the top programs in the country are involved, even if it should be lopsided.

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Missouri (11-2)

January 3, 4:30 p.m.

An unusual matchup of two former Big 12 (and Big 8) bottom-feeders risen from the ashes. Okie State has become the league’s marquee program over the past five years, while Mizzou – left for dead upon entering the SEC – simply spun the prognosticators’ predictions on their heads with one of the finest seasons in school history. 2013 was even more impressive because both the Cowboys and Tigers managed this while dealing with major uncertainty at the QB position, something that would have crippled most teams. OSU finally settled on Clint Chelf, while Mizzou got quality contributions from Maty Mauk until James Franklin was healthy again. The game features a pair of top-notch offenses and better-than-expected defenses; still, it’s reasonable to figure we’re in for a shootout. It’s a toss-up, so I’ll just go with the SEC team in Mizzou.

Watchability: 5. Two of the fastest-rising programs in FBS and two of the best teams in the country this year.

Discover Orange Bowl

Clemson (10-2) vs. Ohio State (12-1)

January 3, 5:30 p.m.

These teams arrive in varying states of disappointment despite impressive seasons overall. Clemson expected to be the ACC frontrunner but was upstaged by surprising Florida State, while Ohio State went an underwhelming 12-0 before fading in the Big Ten title game. The Tigers hold the only marquee win by either team, a 38-35 victory in the opener against a healthy Georgia squad, but have been largely average since. After the shellacking at the hands of FSU a loss to rival South Carolina was almost expected, and verily, it came to pass. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, scraped by much like in 2012, with a slew of bad wins against a weak conference, but still seemed destined for a BCS Championship shot before facing Michigan State. I’m not entirely sure what to expect in this game; both teams have quality rosters, strong offenses and (at least) respectable defenses. Will one of the disappointed parties fail to show up? I’ll take Clemson, but I’m not confident about it.

Watchability: 5. Despite the failures of these teams they’re both still really, really good. 

There are only three games in the final "week" of the postseason but my championship game preview will be larger than the other bowls'. The 2013 season has nearly stopped spinning. I'm certain there will be more craziness before it's through. Onward, to victory and glory!

Let's go bowling

Army – Navy always offers thrills, but a week with only one football game is tough to get through. That won’t be the case this week when the bowls begin. Starting with Saturday’s four-game slate there will be a college football contest on TV nearly every day until January 8. My usual philosophy with bowls will return this year. The collegiate postseason is simply far too unpredictable to make a serious attempt at picks. It’s impossible to know which teams will show up and which players (or coaches) will be looking ahead to bigger things. With that said, this postseason preview will take the same form it has the past couple of years. My pick will be secondary to the watchability of the contest, rated from 1-5. All times Pacific.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Washington State (6-6) vs. Colorado State (7-6)

December 21, 11:00 a.m.

Bowl season kicks off with a reasonably watchable clash of styles from the West Coast. Wazzu looked doomed to just miss out on the postseason after a three-game skid in Pac-12 play, but saved its season with a road upset of Arizona and got to play an extra game for the first time since 2003. CSU never strung together more than two wins in a row but was never really in danger of missing out on a bowl thanks to an offense that improved as the year went along and a bonus game against Hawai’i. I like the Rams a lot and I’m concerned with the Cougars’ ability to defend both the run and pass, something they struggled with in conference play. However, CSU also features a bottom-25 pass defense by several measures, and if there’s one thing WSU knows how to do, it’s throw. I’ll tentatively take Washington State

Watchability: 3. There should be scoring and turnovers.

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl

Fresno State (11-1) vs. USC (9-4)

December 21, 12:30 p.m.

A surprisingly juicy early bowl matchup, featuring two teams with a combined 20 wins and regional pride on the line. Fresno and SC haven’t met since the epic 2005 bout in the Coliseum when Reggie Bush went insane, but there’s plenty at stake here anyway given how much these schools recruit from the same area. The Bulldogs just missed a BCS bowl and have to be a little disappointed, so playing an in-state opponent should help to get the team motivated. USC went on an impressive run under Ed Orgeron, who resigned in protest after the Trojans hired Steve Sarkisian. It will be interesting to see where the team’s mindset is. Fresno had the better season, but USC’s strength is D and I’d be surprised to see the explosive Bulldogs’ offense go off against the Trojans’ superior athletes. The SC offense is a liability, but so is the Fresno defense. In any case, it should be a fairly close game and worth watching. 

Watchability: 4. There are a lot of playmakers on the field for this one.

  

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Buffalo (8-4) vs. San Diego State (7-5)

December 21, 2:30 p.m.

If you’re going to see two unranked mid-majors this postseason you could do a lot worse than Buffalo – SDSU. Both squads bounced back from ugly starts (0-2 for Buffalo, 0-3 for SDSU) to make an impact in their respective conference races, though they both also stumbled again near the end as the Bulls lost two of three to end the year and the Aztecs lost their finale. SDSU nearly snuck into the Mountain West title game but for a loss to Fresno State in overtime midway through the season. Neither team is particularly proficient running or passing, but both are competent in both respects. The defenses are likewise more or less average. In a fairly close matchup, I’ll go with the side from the better conference, which is SDSU from the Mountain West. The MAC has let me down before.

Watchability: 3. Still should be a pretty entertaining game.

  

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Tulane (7-5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)

December 21, 6:00 p.m.

I was all set to take the Ragin’ Cajuns in this game. They have a better season record and a solid track record the past few seasons as an up-and-coming program. Throw in Tulane’s inconsistency – the Green Wave had a four-game win streak but otherwise never won two games in a row – and ULL seemed the smart pick. However, when you look deeper at the seasons both teams had the picture becomes more muddied. Despite its advances the Sun Belt is still a lesser conference than Conference USA, so a better record in the one league may not mean as much. Furthermore, Tulane went 1-1 in nonconference games against SBC teams (a 41-39 loss to South Alabama and a 31-14 win over Louisiana-Monroe), both of which beat ULL head-to-head. The Green Wave also quietly recorded a top-20 scoring defense, no small feat in the wide-open C-USA. In the end, though, Cajuns’ QB Terrance Broadway breaks the tie for me.

Watchability: 2. Broadway is the only real star in this contest.

  

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl St. Petersburg

East Carolina (9-3) vs. Ohio (7-5)

December 23, 11:00 a.m.

There’s a case to be made for ECU being the best team in Conference USA. The Pirates narrowly lost to Virginia Tech and Tulane, then suffered a meltdown in the de facto East Division title game against Marshall. Otherwise, they were amazing. ECU doesn’t run the ball and doesn’t really care to, instead favoring a sling-it-out approach that’s become all the rage in C-USA. Ohio’s ground-and-pound suffered this season with injuries and poor line play, dropping the Bobcats near the bottom of the country in rushing. With neither defense capable of shutting the other down, I’m much more comfortable with ECU in this game. Shane Carden and Justin Hardy make for a lethal QB-WR combination and the Pirates should win.

Watchability: 2. ECU’s Air Raid is fun, but that’s about all to see here.

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl

Boise State (8-4) vs. Oregon State (6-6)

December 24, 5:00 p.m.

It’s really hard to know what to make of this game. Will the Broncos be devastated without longtime coach Chris Petersen, or motivated? What’s Oregon State’s mindset after losing five straight to end the season? I wouldn’t be surprised to see either team completely flat or jacked up to end the year on a high note. The only matchup that really matters is Boise State’s pass defense versus OSU’s air-it-out attack. If BSU can contain that, the Broncos will win. If the Beavers go wild, they’ll win. Pretty simple. This season Boise’s pass D has been in the bottom third of the country in yards allowed, though the unit has been pretty good from an efficiency standpoint, allowing only 16 touchdowns with 15 interceptions. Of course, this will be the second-best passing offense BSU has seen all year (behind Fresno State), so that might not mean much. I’ll tentatively take the Broncos, as I just can’t trust OSU right now.

Watchability: 3, but improves to a 4 if the offenses get rolling.

Little Caesars Bowl

Pittsburgh (6-6) vs. Bowling Green (10-3)

December 26, 3:00 p.m.

There’s no sense hiding it: I really like Bowling Green. The Falcons’ superb defense stifled the MAC and ranked fifth in the nation in points allowed, while the offense rounded into form and ended the year at a respectable 35 points per game. BGSU is balanced offensively and swarming defensively, so it’s no surprise the team upset NIU for the conference title. Pitt did get a late-season upset of Notre Dame but was otherwise highly unimpressive after a 3-1 start, winning just three conference games in a rough transition to the ACC. The Panthers do have an equal talent level (DT Aaron Donald may be the best defensive lineman in the country), but this has been a mediocre squad for most of 2013. Barring a (2009 Big 12 Championship) Ndamukong Suh-esque domination by Donald, BGSU should win.

Watchability: 3. Donald is impressive and the Falcons’s D is great.

  

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Utah State (8-5) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1)

December 26, 6:30 p.m.

We’ve seen what happens when NIU faces a legitimate defense. For that reason, Huskies fans have reason to be afraid. One game after getting stuffed by the best mid-major D in the nation, NIU gets… the second-best mid-major D in Utah State. The Aggies’ success this year is all the more impressive when you consider how the team has operated without star QB Chuckie Keeton for most of the season. Just one game ago USU held a high-flying Fresno State attack to just 24 in a narrow Mountain West title game loss, so it’s safe to say this unit knows what it’s doing. However, I’m going against my general instinct (defense over offense) and taking the Huskies in this game. I think the humiliation of getting stomped by Bowling Green will motivate NIU. It’s a tentative pick, as I could easily see a repeat of the MAC Championship, but in this contest I'm guessing USU’s defense finally breaks down a little.

Military Bowl

Marshall (9-4) vs. Maryland (7-5)

December 27, 11:30 a.m.

Marshall and Maryland had very different seasons. The Thundering Herd lost three games by a combined 13 points before a stunning blowout loss to Rice in the Conference USA Championship. Maryland started 4-0 but never looked the same after a 63-0 pasting at the hands of Florida State, staggering to 7-5. While the ACC is undoubtedly stronger than C-USA, I still think Marshall is a better team. The Herd put up nasty offensive numbers behind QB Raheem Cato and exhibited the kind of balance the Terrapins can only dream of. QB injuries (again) crippled the Terps’ hopes, leading to inconsistent play from the entire team. Marshall doesn’t play very good defense, but neither does Maryland, so there’s not really anything for the Terps to fall back on in this game. I’ll take Marshall to rebound after a disappointing loss in the title game.

Watchability: 3. Maryland is, ahem, sluggish, but Marshall can be a lot of fun to watch.

Texas Bowl

Syracuse (6-6) vs. Minnesota (8-4)

December 27, 3:00 p.m.

For all the talk about how down the Big Ten has been, Minnesota represents the league’s best chance at redemption. The Golden Gophers quietly went 8-2 with wins over Nebraska and Penn State before falling in a pair of competitive games to end the year against Wisconsin and Michigan State. Minnesota’s passing attack is anemic but the ground game is solid, while the defense gave up a respectable 22 points per game. Syracuse’s offense is built similarly, so don’t expect to see too many explosive plays in this game. The Orange are marginally worse on D but not enough to make much of a difference. In all likelihood, this will come down to old-school principles: stopping the running game and turnovers. Whichever team better establishes the run and plays clean should win the game. I’ve seen the worst of both these teams, and I think Syracuse’s floor is lower.

Watchability: 2. There just aren’t many playmakers out there.

Fight Hunger Bowl

BYU (8-4) vs. Washington (8-4)

December 27, 6:30 p.m.

A classic matchup of two proud programs whose glory days are behind them, the Fight Hunger Bowl could have meant a lot to the winning team had Washington retained Steve Sarkisian. With both coaches in for the long haul, this game could have served as a springboard for the future for the winner. Alas, it wasn’t to be, as UW’s fortuitous upgrade to Chris Petersen virtually ensures the Huskies will be relevant in the coming years. Bronco Mendenhall has also done a fine job and should have his team ready to play another Pac-12 opponent. As for the prediction? Changing coaches is tricky and we never know how things will work out in bowl games. In a perfect world UW would arrive fired up to impress the new boss, but... BYU is no pushover and has seen its offense evolve into a two-dimensional threat over the course of the year. Washington should be able to match the Cougars’ weapons, though the Huskies haven’t always come through in these kind of games. Still, I’ll tentatively take UW.

Watchability: 3. These are two quality teams, but the coaching change mutes the appeal a little.

The first week of bowl season doesn’t always feature great squads but invariably produces at least a few great contests. Next week is when things really kick into gear with some of this season’s heavy hitters. Consider this week a primer on the upcoming excitement.

Devin Gardner wins the 2013 Stanzi!

The final week of the season was short on contests but rich in quality football. From the Thursday night showdown in the AAC to the epic Big Ten title bout Saturday, we were treated to game after game of entertaining play. Auburn completed its miracle run in a laughably defense-less SEC Championship. Stanford reasserted that its style wins out against spread teams in Tempe. In the Big 12, Oklahoma had our curiosity before Baylor got our attention. And Florida State… well, Florida State did what Florida State does.

There’s little doubt now that FSU is the best team in America. I moved the Seminoles to the top spot after their shellacking of Clemson, but assumed Alabama was still at the same level. The Crimson Tide fell by the wayside, though, victims of the long college football season. Now there’s no one left to take up the proverbial mantle. Ohio State? Auburn? Let’s be real. This is the Seminoles’ world we’re living in. It’s up to them to determine who’s worthy to share their spotlight.

It’s clear that conference championship games, unnecessary though they may be, are here to stay. Without them we would never have the same level of drama on the final day of the season, which certainly won’t do for conference commissioners. It’s hard to determine what it is these games accomplish, other than filling the coffers of money-hungry TV networks, but the excitement they ensure more than makes up for their lack of purpose. In recent years the outcomes of league title games have vastly altered both conference and national championships, which has hurt the sport more often than not. Do you think Ohio State thinks the Big Ten needed such a contest now? NIU, like mid-major peers Houston and Ball State before it, can appreciate the frustration the Buckeyes are feeling.

The bowls are set, so my postseason preview will begin to appear over the next few weeks. For now, let’s revisit the top 25 one last time and smile at the notion that next year it won’t be just two teams that matter at this time of year.

Top 25

1) Florida State

Everyone expected Duke to get spanked, and although the Blue Devils valiantly hung in there for a half it wasn’t surprising to see the dam burst. FSU is simply too good to be contained. With Jameis Winston off the hook (legally speaking), the Seminoles are free to run wild in the title game. Can this team be beaten? I’m not sure. FSU hasn’t won by fewer than 14 points (Boston College) and that was the only game within 27.

2) Michigan State

It came down to Michigan State and Auburn and I took the Spartans. The Big Ten is weaker than the SEC. That isn’t in question. But MSU didn’t need lucky breaks to get where to this point, either. None of the Spartans’ wins were by fewer than 10 points and the loss, though it came to Notre Dame, was a one-possession game. Auburn’s wins were slightly (though not much) better, but the loss was a decisive affair to LSU. MSU beats out the Tigers by a hair.

3) Auburn

Luck, though it’s a flimsy thing, isn’t calculated in the BCS. I have no problem with the Tigers playing in the title game. I just happen to believe Michigan State is probably better. As charmed as this run has been for Auburn, there are several red flags attached to the campaign as well. In particular, that near-loss to WSU to start the season. The Tigers have improved since then, but have they really improved THAT much? The Cougars, for the record, are a .500 Pac-12 team.

4) Alabama

‘Bama got one-half of the magical upset weekend it needed when Michigan State came through, but FSU proved to be too much for Duke. It’s off to the Sugar Bowl for the Crimson Tide, which might bring back traumatic memories for some fans in Tuscaloosa. Those fears are probably unfounded; Alabama didn’t take Utah seriously in that game and it showed. I doubt the coaches will allow that to happen again.

5) Stanford

Oh, Stanford. How many times have I typed that this year? There are times when I’m right and there are times when I’m wrong, but there are very few times I’m right and hate myself for it. Almost every instance of that emotion seems to involve Stanford. The Cardinal did just as I expected in Tempe, crushing ASU again to claim a second straight conference title. If only this team could play a full season at that level.

6) Ohio State

There are two schools of thought regarding OSU’s first loss under Urban Meyer. The one favored by Ohio State fans is that the Buckeyes played a bad game and still almost went undefeated for the second straight year. The other is that OSU was exposed by the first quality team it faced under Meyer. Both have elements of the truth, but I’d lean closer to the latter. As talented as the Buckeyes are, MSU made them look ordinary for the majority of the game.

7) Baylor

Take a bow, Baylor. You’ve not only earned your first BCS bowl, you’ve won me over (mostly). While a good defense or inclement weather have proved to be nasty roadblocks for the Baylor offense, this is still a quality team capable of simply running away from the majority of the country. Are the Bears very fortunate to be facing UCF in the Fiesta Bowl? Yes. But after decades of undignified faceplants, Baylor deserves a break.

8) South Carolina

This might be too high for the Gamecocks, but sorry, they have to be ahead of the Mizzou team they beat. South Carolina managed to avoid the West’s best teams but still notched better wins than almost any SEC squad. With victories over UCF and Clemson in the non-conference slate, it’s impossible to argue against the quality of this team. In retrospect, that Tennessee loss robbed us of a great Carolina season.

9) Missouri

It’s hard to evaluate Mizzou’s performance in Atlanta. The offense put up a bunch of points, but it was facing a bad defense. The D was facing a statistically prolific offense, but one that's ludicrously one-sided. I’d guess Gary Pinkel and his staff would like to do a lot of things over. What happened to defense in the SEC? Did that narrative die when it wasn’t convenient any longer? The Tigers are still searching for that elusive conference title.

10) Oregon

It’s extremely silly that Oklahoma is playing in a BCS game ahead of Oregon, but the Ducks didn’t do themselves any favors with that tepid final month. UO did get a giant boost this week when Marcus Mariota and Hroniss Grasu announced they would return in 2014. Getting back the best Center-QB combination in the country has to bolster the team’s spirits after a disappointing November.

11) Clemson

The Tigers should be higher than this, but for whatever reason they can’t seem to beat South Carolina. Although 10 wins is still a pretty solid year, there’s a distinct feeling that this team peaked early and coasted through the second half of the season. Should it have been rewarded with a BCS bowl? Probably not. Clemson will get a chance to prove the naysayers wrong in the Orange.

12) UCF

It took a lot of close calls to get there, but the Knights did it. A BCS berth, and a well-deserved one at that. The cliché is that you can only play the teams in front of you; UCF did that and more by running undefeated through the AAC and playing South Carolina tough in its only loss. The defense will be under fire against Baylor, but there are few offenses more capable of going blow-for-blow with the Bears than this one.

13) Oklahoma

I was impressed by the Sooners’ one-score (because that’s what it was) victory at Oklahoma State. However, I can’t reward OU too much because I’ve seen just how awful this team can look at times. We still don’t know how good the Big 12 is, but all signs have pointed to it being as down as the Big Ten. That doesn’t bode well against an Alabama team stacked with an array of future high draft picks.

14) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys and Sooners traded places early in my rankings, so it seems only fitting they should end up side by side. OSU was right there in 2013 but failed to finish off performances in a couple of games. Eventually, Okie State will learn the Oregon lesson that running your offense one way all the time isn’t as effective as you’d hope. This is still the league’s most promising program going forward.

15) LSU

The Tigers’ bowl game (versus Iowa in the Outback) is now a very intriguing affair given the injury to QB Zach Mettenberger and the “look to the future” we’ll be getting in January. LSU finally got over its frustrating lack of offense problem this season, only to graduate Mettenberger. The good news is the defense will probably return to form in 2014 to pick up the slack.

16) Arizona State

It was an unfortunately predictable outcome for the Sun Devils, although I expected ASU to make more of a game of it against Stanford. The Cardinal defense is simply a perfect match for ASU’s attack. Still, 10 wins and a division title is pretty rarified air for this program, which seems poised to be a player in the South for years to come. I’m a believer in what Todd Graham is selling at this point.

17) Louisville

We knew the winner of the Keg of Nails likely wouldn’t have any bearing on the AAC race, but that didn’t stop it from being a terrific football game. Time and time again Cincinnati seemed to have Louisville on the ropes, but Teddy Bridgewater saved his best for last, carrying the team on his back on a crucial fourth down scramble and delivering an eye-popping frozen rope to take a late lead. The Cardinals can finally look ahead to the ACC.

18) UCLA

The Bruins locked up Jim Mora for a longer term and now must take the next step as a program by winning a bowl game. UCLA was embarrassed in the postseason last year and has to show that was a letdown. As impressive as Mora’s tenure has been to this point, he needs to make his players (and fans) believe the future holds more than second-place division finishes. There’s no reason for UCLA to accept anything less.

19) Wisconsin

The pickings for the final spot are a little bare. USC and Notre Dame are both contenders, but I’ll go with Wisconsin. The Badgers very nearly eked out a BCS berth in a season in which they had absolutely no right to do so. With Joel Stave looking like a true long-term answer at QB – something UW hasn’t had for a long time – Wisconsin is set to stay a Big Ten power for the foreseeable future.

20) Duke

I can’t reasonably drop Duke from the rankings after a rough outing against the best team in the country. The Blue Devils have still had a magical season and deserve all the praise they’ve gotten. 10 wins in Durham?! What’s even more impressive is this isn’t a particularly senior-laden team. Academic schools tend to cycle to higher-win seasons when they have a glut of upperclassmen, but Duke is actually pretty well-off for 2014.

21) USC

Interesting time to be a Trojans fan. I understand the idea that Steve Sarkisian "knows the culture" in L.A., but considering who Washington just hired it's hard to look at this whole affair and not think SC got the lesser coach. Chris Petersen allegedly turned down the Trojans but was eager to leap to UW; that isn't very promising for this program.

22) Texas A&M

This end-of-year ranking is a nod to the explosiveness of the A&M offense, because I really doubt the Aggies are actually a top-25 team. A somewhat close game against Alabama in the second week does little to distract from the subsequent losses and downturn in scoring against the better opponents on the schedule. However, the biggest problem in the defense. Kevin Sumlin had better fix that first.

23) Notre Dame

Notre Dame is at a crossroads. If not for a string of miraculous breaks in 2012 the Fighting Irish would be an eight-win team every season with Brian Kelly. If that's good enough, so be it. But despite this team's overall level of quality, Kelly won't be able to coast on that 12-win season forever. Signs of improvement, like a return to the BCS, are necessary.

24) Fresno State

The Bulldogs bounced back from that defensive nightmare against San Jose State to hold Utah State completely in check (until the fourth quarter) and claim the Mountain West title. It's been far too long since one of the nation's strongest (historically) mid-majors has celebrated a conference championship. It seems fitting a Carr would be the one to lead the team back.

25) Northern Illinois

In perhaps my best prediction ever, I called Bowling Green's upset of NIU way back in August. My prediction was eerily accurate, as the Huskies struggled to move the ball on BGSU and couldn't get any help from their outmanned defense. Even with the win, the Falcons don't deserve to be ranked at 10-3. NIU does, right where I've had the team all year: the bottom of the rankings.

Pac-12 Report

Unlike in the first meeting, Arizona State managed to hang around for a quarter or so before getting overwhelmed, but the final result was pretty much identical. Stanford’s power running dominated the night, opening up huge windows for play-action bombs, which the Cardinal capitalized on quickly. ASU was once again unable to muster a consistent running or passing threat, putting too much pressure on the Sun Devils’ sometimes shaky air attack to win the game. It couldn’t, and here we are. After all of the strange losses and underwhelming performances over the past two years it seems unlikely to be talking about the Cardinal as back-to-back champs. However, Stanford has played well when it mattered most and taken advantage of every little 50-50 ball. When you play D, run the ball and win the turnover battle, it’s hard to lose too many games. Stanford has perfected this formula to the chagrin of the rest of the Pac-12.

Heisman Watch

The winner is Jameis Winston of Florida State. I’m uncomfortable, to say the least, about the sexual assault allegation that wasn’t. But with no charges and Winston the runaway winner on the field he’s the only logical answer. We don’t know the full story – despite what some FSU homers will tell you – and may never have a clear picture of what happened. But by the same token, there’s not enough to condemn Winston or deny him the award he’s earned. In the end, the Heisman’s “integrity” criterion is fairly meaningless historically anyway. If you look at the trophy purely as a football-related commendation, which we probably should, there’s only one obvious answer.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Next year at this time we’ll have a four-team playoff and a debate over whether the deserving fifth-ranked team got left out. There have already been calls to expand the playoff to eight, 16 or even more teams. That would a ridiculous overreaction and the worst mistake the sport could make. A small playoff allows the regular season to still have meaning and conference championships to retain their value. Moving to an NCAA basketball tourney-style mega-event is an incredibly greedy and ill-informed idea. There’s a reason college football is much more popular than college basketball. It’s because most of the country doesn’t watch the largely meaningless basketball season.

Making college football teams play as many as four more games – far more than they’ve ever played – would have the same effect it did in the NFL: a massive increase in injuries. The FCS playoff demonstrates this problem, as the former I-AA postseason has become a game of attrition as much as skill. Furthermore, THERE ARE NOT 16 TEAMS IN FBS FOOTBALL THAT DESERVE TO PLAY FOR THE NATIONAL TITLE. Look at the BCS standings today and consider some of the participants in a theoretical 16-team playoff. LSU, sans Mettenberger? The Oklahoma schools? Reeling Oregon and Clemson? It would be a farce if one of those teams won the title. A reasonable argument can be made for an eight-team playoff, provided at least five of the eight are major-conference champions. But anything more is misguided in the extreme.

It didn’t take long for Washington find its man. Shortly after I posted last week, UW hired Boise State’s Chris Petersen. Simply put, this is a dream scenario for the Huskies. Petersen saw the writing on the wall at Boise and knew the Broncos wouldn’t return to national prominence, so it works out well for him too. For the rest of the Pac-12, it’s a nightmare. At their peak Petersen’s Broncos toyed with some of the league’s best. The last thing anyone on the West Coast wanted to see was Petersen with a massive upgrade in funding, facilities, personnel and recruiting capability. This isn’t a home run for Washington, it’s a grand slam.

There were no Stanzi winners this week, which meant our four finalists didn’t have to fend off any late challengers. It’s been a long, delightful season of performances the original Stanzi would have been proud to call his own. Here are the expanded standings.

2013 Stanzi Awards Finalists

Devin Gardner, Michigan

Performances: Three INT (including one pick-six), one FUM versus Akron; two INT, one FUM (returned for TD) versus Connecticut; the losing QB in the year’s first Double Stanzi (Michigan – Penn State)

Totals: Five INT (one for TD), two FUM (one for TD), two weekly Stanzis

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

Performances: One INT, one FUM versus Ole Miss; three INT versus Mississippi State

Totals: Four INT, one FUM, two weekly Stanzis

Blake Bortles, UCF

Performances: One INT, one FUM versus Houston; two INT, one FUM versus USF

Totals: Three INT, two FUM, two weekly Stanzis

Keith Wenning, Ball State

Performances: One FUM (returned for TD), one INT versus Toledo; two INT versus Kent State

Totals: Three INT, one FUM (for TD), two weekly Stanzis

Just like with the Heisman, this is a no-brainer. Gardner has been living on the edge all season, he kick-started my effort to document the Stanzis with his four-turnover day against Akron AND he birthed the Double Stanzi along with Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg. He’s got two more turnovers in his weekly awards than the next closest competitor and more turnover for TD’s than the rest of the field combined. Congratulations to Michigan’s Devin Gardner, our 2013 Stanzi winner!

Army – Navy is next week, followed by the start of bowl season the following Saturday. It’s been another vivid and eventful regular season full of the joy and heartbreak this sport annually brings. I can’t wait to see what the postseason has in store.

The read-option pass is cheating, here's why

Wow. Just wow. I suppose it wouldn’t be fitting if we didn’t send the BCS off with some insanity, right? What should have been a simple formula – undefeated Alabama plus undefeated Florida State equals title game – has now been turned into college football’s version of the Schrodinger equation. If Ohio State wins or loses… if Auburn/Missouri wins… if Oregon hadn’t laid an egg at Arizona… the possibilities are maddening. Let’s start from the top.

Auburn stunned Alabama, topping its own miracle from a week prior versus Georgia in one of the sport’s all-time most unexpected twists: a missed field goal return touchdown to win the game with no time left. The loss effectively eliminated the Crimson Tide from the title chase and vaulted the surprising Tigers into a position to potentially sneak into the BCS Championship. Ah, but Missouri will have something to say about that, as the other Tigers (there are far too many of them in the South) completed a one-loss campaign themselves and would be the next team up with a win over Auburn in the SEC Championship.

Oklahoma State has to be kicking itself for the early loss to West Virginia, as that’s the only thing keeping the Cowboys from making this race even more confusing. OSU is likely too far back to make a push even with a win in the Bedlam game. Alabama only fell to fourth in the polls, but sandwiched by Auburn and Mizzou the Tide have no realistic shot at redemption. Had one of the two-loss Pac-12 schools (Oregon, Stanford and ASU) not lost a bad road game (UO to Arizona, Stanford to Utah, ASU to Notre Dame), all three could have made a claim as well.

That leaves us with Florida State and Ohio State, both undefeated and in the national championship game with wins in their respective conference title bouts. There’s some question as to whether a one-loss SEC champ will or should jump the second-ranked Buckeyes, but the current BCS standings don’t indicate that will happen. OSU has a large enough lead on Auburn that even if the Tigers beat Missouri they won’t jump the Buckeyes. And that’s the way it should be. I’d be the first person to say the Big Ten is bad; I trumpeted it earlier than anyone last season and maintain this is the worst the league has even been. But the difference between power conferences is far smaller than SEC homers would have you believe. The Big Ten, down though it may be, isn’t the MAC. Going undefeated in a power conference will and should always be important.

Now, if Ohio State (or FSU) loses, we could be in for a whole mess o’ trouble. It’s possible the top three teams in the BCS could all go down on the final day of the season, setting up an insane Alabama – Missouri matchup for the title. That would also re-emphasize what’s so horrible about this system. But fear not – such a scenario is unlikely in the extreme. The most boring ending is the most probable. As for Auburn AD Jay Jacobs, who began stumping after the Iron Bowl for a “one-loss SEC champion” (wonder who he’s talking about?) to be included in the BCS title game: be careful what you wish for. We may very well see a one-loss SEC team in the national championship, but if karma swings back the other direction this week it’s going to be Mizzou. (For his part, Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio said the same thing about a "one-loss Big Ten champion," though I have to believe on some level he was trolling Jacobs.)

Outside of the chaos atop the polls, rivalry week provided us with a smorgasbord of minor delights and wild finishes. The Egg Bowl produced a shocker when Mississippi State upended Ole Miss in overtime. LSU survived – barely – the Battle for the Golden Boot on a late bomb, Fresno State saw its undefeated season go up in smoke at San Jose State and Oregon pulled out an insane Civil War. That was before the weekend started. Saturday saw Ohio State escape at Michigan, Duke do the same at North Carolina, Auburn win a thrilling Iron bowl, Georgia knock off Georgia Tech in double overtime, Baylor survive TCU and Missouri put down Texas A&M. Yet despite all that, we still have no idea who will play for the national championship or in most of the BCS bowls. What a way to end the season.

Top 25

1) Florida State

Now I look brilliant for having kept the Seminoles on top all season. I actually expected to drop them to second following an Alabama win, but the best laid plans, eh? FSU has been the nation’s most dominant team in 2013 by a wide margin and should have little trouble with a Cinderella Duke team this week. The Blue Devils have scraped by the past month and are a great story, but they’re facing a demon in cleats in Charlotte. I expect the ‘Noles to put an exclamation point on this season with a dominant win.

2) Ohio State

Well, it shouldn’t have come to this, but everyone else worthy lost so the Buckeyes are in a “win and you’re in” situation. OSU has been less than dominant this year but so was the 2002 squad that upset Miami (FL). There’s no telling how a team will perform if put in the right situation. Of course, to earn that chance the Buckeyes will need to beat a tough Michigan State team. Were I Urban Meyer, I’d be very concerned with this matchup. If the Spartans turn this into a slugfest they can absolutely win.

3) Missouri

Tops on my list of contenders if Ohio State falls is Mizzou. I had some harsh words for the Tigers earlier in the year but they’ve made me a believer and their resume outdoes Auburn’s by a hair. There’s nothing so impressive as the Alabama win, but Missouri’s overall performance has been slightly more impressive and the loss (South Carolina) is a lot better. Everyone is jumped up on Auburn right now, so the opportunity is there for this team. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Mizzou crowned SEC champs.

4) Auburn

First of all, luck. Auburn got it last game against Georgia and again against Alabama, as the Tide missed four field goals, including the fateful last-second return. As I’ve said many times, Auburn is no doubt a much-improved team from the start of the year, though the absurd level of fortune the team has had this month is a bit ridiculous. The Tigers want to be in the BCS Championship, but they’d do well to focus on this week’s game before looking ahead. Much better teams than 2013 Auburn have been tripped up in the final week of the season.

5) Alabama

It’s frustrating to only drop Alabama to fifth, but the only other option is Oklahoma State and I can’t honestly say I’d take the Cowboys over the Crimson Tide. Alabama outplayed Auburn in the Iron Bowl and would have won had any one of a multitude of bad breaks gone its way. That’s sports, though. This team will have to be content with a consolation BCS bowl (I think we all remember how that turned out last time) and the knowledge that five straight titles, not just three, were mere inches away.

6) Oklahoma State

Bedlam for the Big 12 title. OSU wouldn’t have it any other way. Oh, what might have been, though, had the Cowboys figured out their quarterback situation sooner? Just as in 2011, the fans in Stillwater will be left wondering after a single loss keeps this team from playing for the ultimate prize. As for Oklahoma, OSU should be able to handle the game at home. OU is no doubt talented but has been exceedingly erratic this year. Along with Clemson, the Sooners are my current favorite “team to never bet on in a big game.”

7) Stanford

Talk about regret. Stanford can share Oklahoma State’s woes. If not for that now-baffling loss at Utah and the slip-up in L.A., the Cardinal would be playing for the national championship, despite having no offense to speak of and a defense that really doesn’t look dominant against anybody but Oregon. I’m not afraid to say I have no idea where this team is; Stanford can look fearsome one moment, utterly inept the next. The rematch with ASU is going to be very, very interesting.

8) South Carolina

Just as I anticipated, the Gamecocks made it five straight over Clemson and dealt another blow to the ACC. I’m almost sad that this SC team isn’t playing for the SEC title, because I have no doubt it would be a great game against Auburn. Alas, that Tennessee loss. Still, you can’t deny what Steve Spurrier has done here. After seemingly plateauing a couple of seasons ago, Carolina has taken the next step to becoming an all-around elite team. Now the Gamecocks just need to play like one for a full season.

9) Michigan State

All I have to say is, Ohio State better be ready. This is not a defense to be trifled with. The Spartans had another dominant Big Ten win Saturday, completing their conference schedule by winning every game by double digits. That’s incredible. While it’s true that OSU has a higher caliber of playmakers than MSU is used to seeing, this team also plays better D than any the Buckeyes have seen. OSU’s defense, on the other hand,  might not be good enough to completely shut down Sparty’s average attack. Should be a fun game.

10) Oregon

Well, that Civil War certainly was… something. Ignoring the fact that the Ducks were 90 seconds from one of their worst losses in the past decade, 10 wins is a great achievement. However, Oregon fans are forgiven for panicking a little after the way the season ended. The UO we saw over the past month looked nothing like the heavyweight that swaggered through the first two-thirds of the season. Oregon will need to figure some things out to win in the bowl game. Just showing up won’t cut it.

11) Baylor

Really, Baylor? That’s not the way to make people think the Oklahoma State blowout was a fluke. TCU has been a decent team at times this year but barely escaping Fort Worth isn’t going to win over anyone. The Bears can still clinch a share of the Big 12 title with a win over Texas this week, though they’ll need Oklahoma State to lose to be assured of a BCS game. I’m not so sure we won’t see a retread of the OSU game; Texas is quite talented and will be out to claim state superiority.

12) Arizona State

Where is the team that slopped its way to a loss to Notre Dame? Where’s the squad that got embarrassed at Stanford? ASU is scorching, winning its last seven since the debacle in Arlington. The Sun Devils now get to host Stanford in the rematch by virtue of a superior conference record. Up until recently I would have said the Pac-12 title game would go about the same as it did in Palo Alto, but I’m not so sure now. ASU has looked great lately and the Cardinal have been pretty up-and-down.

13) Clemson

Ugh. I can’t say I didn’t see that coming. Clemson continued its frustrating trend of finishing off a successful ACC campaign with a dud against South Carolina in the finale. It doesn’t seem to matter where the game is played or how good either side is; Carolina just has this team’s number. The Tigers can kiss another BCS berth goodbye, which is a strangely disappointing footnote on the otherwise brilliant career of Tajh Boyd. He’s the best QB in program history, yet could never beat SC.

14) UCF

Central Florida survived yet another harrowing battle, this time with rival USF. The Knights have clinched a share of the AAC title, though by my understanding they’re still not a lock to take the league’s BCS bid. The other big game in the conference (Cincinnati – Louisville) could potentially force a tie, though I would think UCF would still be the highest-ranked AAC squad even with a loss. Central should beat SMU this week regardless, but there’s some weird ways this could go.

15) LSU

LSU ended the season with a performance that more or less summed up what the year has been like: decent, but not great. While a loss to an Arkansas team winless in SEC play would have been disastrous, the Tigers did very little wrong overall in 2013. They were merely victims of a tough conference and a couple (Georgia, Ole Miss) close games. The Alabama/Texas A&M back-to-back demonstrated exactly where this team is: a step below elite, but a step above average.

16) Louisville

It’s probably a good thing Louisville lost to UCF, because otherwise we would have had to listen to Cardinals homers squawk this week about how UL isn’t getting any respect as a legit championship contender. They’re not; close games against the likes of Kentucky, Rutgers and Memphis don’t evoke feelings of sympathy from anyone. The Teddy Bridgewater Heisman campaign has also been strangely silent despite the fact that he’s still projected to potentially go first in the draft (which seems high to me).

17) Oklahoma

Moving to a conference championship game-less schedule has made Bedlam a lot more fun since the bye week was added. You know what else has made the Bedlam game more fun? The fact that OSU has started winning. Rivalries are always better when they’re between equals and the battle for Oklahoma is no exception. I’m skeptical about OU again; the consistent inconsistency makes the Sooners one of the least dependable bets in all of football. Playing on the road won’t help either.

18) Northern Illinois

Cheers went out from DeKalb when Fresno State went down, but NIU needs to take care of its own business first. Bowling Green is really good, as I said before the season when I predicted this matchup. The Falcons’ defense is allowing only 243 yards and 11 points per game in conference play, easily the best in the MAC. BGSU is one of seven teams in the entire country (and the only mid-major) allowing fewer than 300 yards per game. There’s not another MAC team in the top 50 defensively; safe to say, this is the best defense NIU will have seen all year.

19) UCLA

Well, well. Look who decided to pick up the pieces. I had been down on UCLA for weeks leading up to the ASU loss and I assumed the Bruins would crumble after losing the South. Instead, they dusted themselves off and delivered their best win of the year over their arch-rivals. A three-loss campaign is pretty good these days in Westwood, so I think the UCLA faithful better take it. The Bruins did well to re-up Jim Mora's deal in the light of the recent Washington news..

20) Duke

I will freely admit to being one of the people who hates all things Duke during basketball season, but this is such a great story you’d have to have a heart of stone to feel unaffected. Duke (yes, Duke!) is headed to the ACC Championship after knocking off rival North Carolina to wrap up a 10-win regular season. That’s already the most wins in a single season in Duke history and there’s still two games to play. The ride probably comes to an ignominious end against FSU, but this has been a storybook season for the Blue Devils.

21) Wisconsin

That was… unexpected. Wisconsin’s run to indignation over not being invited to a BCS bowl ended out of nowhere with a stunning home loss to Penn State, a team still unable to play in the postseason due to NCAA sanctions. The Badgers are now relegated to a lower-tier bowl, which hurts but is probably a more reasonable destination for how good this team really is. While the finish is disappointing you have to consider the season a success considering the uncertainty surrounding the program after the coaching change to Gary Andersen.

22) USC

The Trojans’ hot streak was snapped by a rebounding UCLA team. However, the more important news is that USC apparently has a new head coach: Washington’s Steve Sarkisian. This is a strange hire to me, though I’ll address it more in detail later. For this season, SC is still in line for a decent finish thanks to a nine-win effort and can kick off the Sark era feeling good with a strong effort in the bowl. However, after the Lane Kiffin flameout, it’s understandable to be skeptical about the future of USC football.

23) Texas A&M

Two weeks ago Johnny Manziel was supposed to win the Heisman with strong showings in A&M’s final two games. I predicted the Aggies would lose both, not because Manziel isn’t good but because aTm hadn’t beaten anyone. The Aggies’ claim to fame was a close loss to Alabama. It’s still their biggest win of the season, so you can guess how the past two games have gone. Against two good defenses, A&M’s “unstoppable” attack managed just 31 total points. This squad ends the year an entirely unremarkable 8-4.

24) Notre Dame

Notre Dame has had a couple of bad losses (Michigan, Pitt), but the quality wins are evident. I’ll even give this team credit for a close loss to Stanford; after all, the Cardinal are playing for the Pac-12 title. This season could be viewed as a failure after 2012’s improbable run, but taking into account the amount of close wins last year I’d say 8-4 is pretty good. That’s about what the record should have been last season without all the crazy breaks. Of course, that does bring up some questions about what Brian Kelly is doing with all that talent.

25) Fresno State

The dam finally broke. I said earlier in the year Fresno’s defense had to improve if the team wanted to play in a BCS bowl. For a time it did and the Bulldogs seemed destined for a perfect season, but over the past few games teams had begun to score more and more effectively on Fresno. Friday was the ultimate meltdown performance against a quality San Jose State offense and great QB in David Fales. The Mountain West title is still there for the taking, but this is obviously a disappointing loss.

Pac-12 Report

It was an utterly bizarre week for the Pac-12, both on the field and off. The games predicted to be blowouts were nail-biters, the ones expected to be close were snoozers and then USC started the coaching carousel two weeks early by hiring Steve Sarkisian away from Washington. I’ll say the exact same thing about Sark that I did about Ed Orgeron a couple of weeks ago: he’s good, but USC could have had better. Why would the Trojans settle for another former Pete Carroll assistant (especially after it worked out so well last time) when the job is so much better than that?

Orgeron reportedly resigned in protest upon being offered a high-paying assistant coach position, which isn’t surprising. True or not (I’d side with “not”), Orgeron had clearly come to believe his performance had earned him the USC head coaching position. Unfortunately, the history of interim coaches successfully taking over at their schools (in the long term) is spotty at best (see West Virginia and Bill Stewart). USC did the right thing by not settling for Orgeron – that is unquestionable. But Sarkisian? That’s settling too, in the naive hope than a “Carroll man” can return the program to those halcyon days. Those days aren’t coming back. The conference has improved around USC and no one is winning seven straight titles again. Orgeron didn’t “deserve” the job, but he has a right to be upset at the way this played out.

As for the games… it was another delightful Apple Cup, as WSU took a first-half lead and then watched as Washington methodically took control over the next two quarters. It felt a little like the 2012 game, but without the brilliant Cougars comeback. Give UW credit for locking down this time. Unfortunately the excitement over breaking the seven-win ceiling has to be tempered by watching the coach bolt for greener pastures, but in general the Huskies should be proud of the win. WSU is headed for a lower-level bowl, but is still obviously thrilled to be back in the postseason.

The Civil War was absolutely bonkers, with both teams showing little interest in competent defense or taking care of the ball. Oregon managed to pull it out with a clutch drive in the final minute, but let’s not sugar-coat it: this game was largely a disaster by UO. Had Victor Bolden not scored so quickly on the Beavers’ previous drive, OSU likely would have won on a last-second field goal. Playing such a tight game with this OSU team is inexcusable for the Ducks and shows just how far removed – mentally and physically – Oregon is from the buzzsaw that started 8-0. To their credit, the Beavers showed no fear against this defanged UO defense, mixing in a nice balance of runs and passes to keep the game within a single score throughout. There have been some shameful OSU performances this year, but this wasn’t one of them.

Colorado rallied to make the game interesting against Utah, but the Utes’ early lead and overall superiority eventually won out. It’s hard not to look at this game (and season) as a win for both teams. Utah is no doubt disappointed about missing out on a bowl, but the program demonstrated that it could still compete and hold its own in the Pac-12 despite a litany of injuries and unlucky losses. Keep in mind that the Utes nearly beat OSU and UCLA and were a few big plays away from a seven- or eight-win season. That’s a success to me. Colorado should likewise be proud of taking the “WSU step,” for lack of a better term. Just as Wazzu had to evolve from losing games big to losing them close (before finally winning), CU pulled itself out of the conference cellar in 2013 with a series of hard-fought losses in Pac-12 play. The Buffs eclipsed woeful Cal and hung with Arizona, Utah and UCLA for three quarters. There’s a little light at the end of the tunnel in Boulder.

Stanford managed to put away Notre Dame, though in typical Stanford fashion it wasn’t nearly as dominant a performance as it should have been. In this game the Cardinal actually held a large yardage edge – not always the norm for this team – but self-destructed with turnovers and allowed the Irish to cut the lead to four through three quarters. I was somewhat surprised by the result considering how badly (one assumes) Stanford wanted this game after the officials gave ND the victory in South Bend last year. It’s possible the Cardinal were simply looking ahead to the Pac-12 Championship, but they’ll need a better effort to beat Arizona State a second time.

The final two games were the ones most expected to provide excitement, yet both the South showdowns turned into bores (for the unaffiliated fans, that is). UCLA played possibly its best game of the season, locking down USC’s red-hot offense and scoring impressively on the Trojans’ talented D. Had the Bruins not played so poorly in the first half against ASU, they’d be headed back to the conference title game now. ASU continued its outstanding streak by dropping nearly 60 on Arizona to lock up home-field for the Stanford rematch. That’s where we’ll go now.

Everyone is saying the same thing: this won’t be a repeat of the thrashing Stanford laid on the Sun Devils in September. I agree. That game was early in the season, at Stanford and featured an ASU squad still finding its way against a very confident (and healthy) Cardinal team. Particularly defensively, Stanford dominated that contest, using its powerful front seven to hem in all the option and option-like actions ASU favors. However, Kevin Hogan also played very well, completing 11 of 17 passes with a pair of first-half TD strikes. ASU looked absolutely stunned at the Cardinal’s physicality and trailed by margins of 29-0 and 39-7.

Things have changed as the year has gone on, though. Hogan has been inconsistent as the Cardinal’s signal-caller. At times, opponents have moved the ball effectively on the ground against Stanford. Taylor Kelly has continued to improve at QB for ASU and has an arsenal of reliable weapons around him now, something Hogan does not. What’s more, the Sun Devils have changed as a team since that first meeting. The defense has forced turnovers to feed the explosive offense, as we saw in the UCLA showdown. Overall ASU is playing with a higher level of confidence than we saw from the shell-shocked team that took the field in Palo Alto.

Defensively, Stanford still has the edge over ASU. The Cardinal are designed to stop Oregon, and what is ASU if not Oregon with a weaker passing game and running game? Kelly, for all his good qualities, cannot make the same throws as Marcus Mariota (particularly downfield). When Stanford is on offense, though, it’s a different story. ASU has the personnel in the front seven to do what Oregon could not – slow down the ground game – and could potentially take advantage of the Cardinal’s erratic passing game by snagging picks. Even if Stanford slows the tempo down effectively, the game should be a lot closer than it was the first time around.

In the end, though, I still have to go with Stanford. I’ll look foolish if ASU wins, but this is the kind of game the Cardinal always seem to win. Everyone is questioning them. They’ve been up and down and haven’t looked impressive. ASU is on a hot streak and hosting the game. It all seems to point to a revenge win for the Sun Devils. So of course Stanford will win. As hot as ASU has been lately, Stanford is still the more talented team where it matters: the lines. A Sun Devils upset wouldn’t shock me, but I can’t ignore Stanford’s track record in this type of game.

Heisman Watch

Lost in all the insanity this weekend was the question, “Who on earth is going to win the Heisman?” I predicted last week that reliable A.J. McCarron would probably engender the most late support from voters, but that was before Alabama lost the Iron Bowl. Just to make sure it was no fluke, Marcus Mariota and Johnny Manziel further devalued their prospects last week by losing/playing poorly. Some have suggested Arizona RB Ka’Deem Carey, which is a decent choice but not my favorite. Carey is really good, but the QB position is so much more important in today’s football than the RB. That leaves us with Boston College RB Andre Williams (just no – he’s not better than Carey) and… Jameis Winston.

The Iron Bowl was killer for Heisman voters, who could have taken the easy way out had McCarron led Alabama to another undefeated season. It would have been a “legacy” Heisman, certainly not the first of its kind, and everyone would have pretty much been okay with it. But now? It HAS to be Winston. Not only is he already the runaway winner with his own performance, all the other potentials have essentially played themselves out of contention. It’s really hard for voters (and me) to support a player with a pending criminal case, but Winston hasn’t been charged. At this point he has to win. All we can do is hope it doesn’t come back to haunt us.

Random Thoughts and Observations

USC got the ol’ coaching game started before the regular season even ended. As always, the team that makes the first move sends aftershocks around the country. The fact that it was USC that found its man first is, once again, surprising. But I’ve already been over how I think the Sarkisian hiring was questionable for SC. Instead, let’s look at what it means for Washington. First, there’s the humiliation factor: no school wants to be seen as a “stepping stone,” especially one with a history as proud as UW. However, once that initial shock wears off, I think Huskies fans are largely at peace with this.

For as much as he did to bring the program out of the Dark Age, Sark never won more than seven games (until this past weekend’s Apple Cup), never beat Oregon (a HUGE problem) and never vaulted UW back into the national conversation. Sure, at one point this season the Huskies were 4-0 and ranked in the top 15, but they promptly lost three straight in progressively uglier fashion and were never heard from again. Sark is a good coach, but I think UW fans can live without him. At this point, there’s no reason to settle for middling records any longer. The next hire should affirm that.

So who should it be? Washington is no doubt an excellent and attractive job, but there are some drawbacks. The Pac-12 has gotten better. Seattle is tucked away in the Pacific Northwest, which can be a hindrance. The recruiting turf is good but not great. A lot of coaches from “lesser” programs (Gary Pinkel at Missouri, Chris Petersen at Boise State) are somewhat entrenched in their positions and might not want to leave for the potential of greater things at Washington. UCLA’s Jim Mora was tempting given his ties to UW, but UCLA locked him up quickly with the Washington job vacant. There’s also the usual list of top assistants (current defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox, if he doesn’t leave with Sark) to look at. Choices abound. Whomever the Huskies end up with, you can be sure it will send even more ripples across the country.

The end of the regular season is upon us and players around the country gave their all to be included in the final Stanzi standings. As with the Heisman, I will give out the award before the bowl season, but this final weekend still counts. We got one last Double Stanzi this week, as Notre Dame’s Tommy Rees and Stanford’s Kevin Hogan combined for four INT’s, though Rees was the "loser" due to Stanford actually winning the game. Here are this week’s winners and the finalists.

Marcus Mariota, Oregon

Opponent: Oregon State

Performance: Two INT, threw game-winning TD pass

Blake Bortles, UCF

Opponent: USF

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, threw game-winning TD pass

Kevin Hogan, Stanford

Opponent: Notre Dame

Performance: Two INT, led clinching drive to end game

2013 Stanzi Awards Finalists

Devin Gardner, Michigan: 2

Keith Wenning, Ball State: 2

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M: 2

Blake Bortles, UCF: 2

Fantastic news: UCF’s Blake Bortles has leapt onto the short list with a three-turnover performance against rival USF. Even better: Bortles is the only one of the four finalists to play this week, meaning HE COULD COME FROM BEHIND AND STANZI THE STANZI!!! That’s the Stanziest thing I’ve ever heard! This could be legendary.

One a more serious note, there’s been a very frustrating trend this season in college football. Or rather, college football officiating. The triple option pass, a play that’s become quite in vogue over the past few years, reached critical levels of usage in 2013. On the contemporary variation of the play, the QB runs a traditional read-option in the backfield, then keeps the ball and heads toward the sideline before passing to an open receiver just before crossing the line of scrimmage. Auburn used such a play to tie the game in the fourth quarter against Alabama. The problem is that the play is completely illegal.

Offensive linemen are not allowed to move past the neutral zone on any passing play, lest they incur an “ineligible receiver downfield” penalty. The neutral zone on a play from scrimmage is defined as the length of the football past the line of scrimmage. That’s generously defined as one full yard. Officials in recent years have allowed a three-yard “cushion” for linemen engaged with defenders, but that’s a cop-out to give offenses even more of an advantage. There’s no wonder defensive backs are routinely flying up to tackle QB’s on these plays, only to see the ball go over their heads; they think it’s a run play because offensive linemen are several yards downfield blocking for the initial read-option. For some reason refs have entirely ignored this rule in 2013.

ESPN’s David Pollack addressed the issue earlier in the season. As a former linebacker Pollack is particularly sensitive to rules that favor offenses, and I’m inclined to agree with his assessment that allowing linemen that leeway is flat-out “cheating.” The reason the ineligible receiver rule exists is to prevent exactly what offenses are now doing: faking runs by having linemen drive block downfield, then throwing the ball on play-fakes that are much more effective when, by rule, a forward pass should no longer be an option.

I’ve ragged on Baylor some this year, but this highlight video against Oklahoma demonstrates what legitimate pass blocking on play-action option plays looks like. Notice how, throughout the game, Baylor’s linemen curl back, even though the initial look of the play is that of a run. Contrast that with this Oregon – Arizona tape. Although it wasn’t the reason UO lost (they just didn’t show up), Arizona repeatedly took advantage of the current (incorrect) interpretation of the rule, such as on the touchdown pass that begins at 1:12. Watch for where the linemen are when the ball is released. The NCAA needs to clean this up. Offenses already have far too many advantages in today’s game.

Next week: the end of the regular season. You never know what’s going to happen in conference championship games, which makes them all the more fascinating. What was intended to be the AAC’s de facto title game, Louisville at Cincinnati, has been relegated to also-ran status thanks to UCF’s undefeated run. The Knights can officially claim the league’s BCS bid with a win at SMU. My Bowling Green over NIU pick is already on the record. I’ll take Marshall over Rice on the road in the Conference USA Championship; the Thundering Herd just have too much offense. Oklahoma – Oklahoma State and Texas – Baylor will decide the Big 12 title, but I’ll pick OSU to end the drama early with a win in Bedlam.

The slate gets really good late in the day starting with the SEC Championship. Both Missouri and Auburn can make a claim (though not a great one) to be in the BCS title game with a win. Both Tigers have vastly exceeded expectations in 2013 with magical runs. I’ll go with Mizzou in a minor upset. Auburn just beat Alabama, but we all know AU was fortunate to win that game as well as the prior game with Georgia. I’ve doubted Missouri too long and been burned by it. My reasoning is similar with Stanford, which I explained in-depth in the Pac-12 section.

My expectations for the ACC Championship are not high, as I’ve already said. I love what Duke has done this year, but FSU is a juggernaut. The Seminoles will simply overwhelm the Blue Devils. Things will be different in the Big Ten Championship, where we get an unexpected heavyweight tilt between Ohio State and Michigan State. I have too much respect for Ohio State to pick the upset outright; despite the fact that the Big Ten is indeed down, the Buckeyes really are quite good. However, OSU had better be on red alert. Without a dominant ground threat the OSU passing attack can look very ordinary and Michigan State excels at stopping the run. The Spartans really excel at everything on the defensive side, which is what makes them so dangerous. The problem is the offense. Although MSU has put up improving numbers over the course of the season, the team hasn’t faced anyone nearly as talented as OSU. While I could certainly see the Spartans winning, I think the Buckeyes will eventually prove to be too much.

The nightcap of the regular season (though we still do have Army – Navy) is Utah State at Fresno State in the inaugural Mountain West Championship. I’m still not sure how USU got to the title game sans Chuckie Keeton, but the Fresno loss last week was about the worst thing that could have happened from the Aggies’ perspective. An undefeated Bulldogs team could have conceivably come in overconfident and gotten into a dogfight (no pun intended). Now that Fresno is out of a BCS bowl, though, USU won’t be getting overlooked. At home (a nasty place to play), even with less to play for, the Bulldogs should win.

In just a few short days we’ll know where everyone is headed in the postseason and which coaches should be nervous about getting fired before the start of next year. As always, the year has flown by. Will Championship Week brings even more thrills? How could it not? Tune in next week for the season recap and crowning of the first Stanzi.