Let the rivalry games begin

National Overview

It’ll be a short post this week. With the holidays and impending school work, I don’t have very much time right now. Soon I’ll be able to devote more time to the blog, but for now I hope you accept my meager offering. Fortunately, nothing happened last week, so there’s not a lot to write about anyway.

To recap: Boise State was the only contender to play and waxed Fresno State. Nebraska went down, though I didn’t get that game, so I can’t comment on the alleged blown calls that have the Husker faithful so fired up. USC was curiously hammered by Oregon State a week after the Beavers lost to Washington State, and Ohio State somehow managed to remain in the Big 10 title hunt.

Top 25

One quirk in my rankings is the omission of North Carolina State. NCSU beat Florida State and both teams have the same record. However, the Seminoles are in my top 25 over the Wolfpack. Why? Because they’re a better team. FSU was driving and would have scored on their last possession in that game when they fumbled. The result of that contest by itself doesn’t mean that the Seminoles aren’t the superior team. Florida State has played a tougher schedule, and I’ve seen enough of both teams to say that FSU is stronger. In this case, I’m breaking my own rule about head-to-head results.

1) Oregon

Didn’t play, but neither did Auburn or TCU. Boise still hasn’t done enough to pass the BCS favorites, so the Ducks are number one.

2) Auburn

Pretty much the same as Oregon. They don’t deserve to move up or down. Let’s move on.

3) Boise State

51-0 is pretty impressive, even though Fresno State hasn’t risen above “good” since 2005. Of course, the game (at least, the WAC game) the Broncos have been waiting all year for comes this week. Nevada is solid, but they were bludgeoned last year in Boise. Can the Wolf Pack get revenge this season? I doubt it.

4) TCU

A second loss by Utah would have been a virtual death knell on TCU’s title hopes. Luckily for the Horned Frogs, the Utes survived, so the Mountain West champs still have a shot, albeit a small one, at going to Glendale.

5) Stanford

A week after giving Oregon all they could handle, Cal got devastated by the Cardinal. It’s probably a good thing for the Ducks that they got Stanford earlier in the year, because this team is on the warpath right now. I’ll say it again: if an 11-1 Stanford squad is denied a BCS bid, it’ll be absolutely outrageous.

6) Wisconsin

Although Michigan isn’t good, Wisconsin is the best team in the Big 10 right now. My only problem is with the conference tiebreaking system. The Badgers would probably beat Michigan State if the teams played again, but sorry – they don’t get that chance. Wisconsin doesn’t deserve to win the Big 10 title due to their BCS ranking when they lost to MSU on the field.

7) Ohio State

Like I said, these guys aren’t dead yet. People across the country rolled their eyes in disbelief as the Buckeyes pulled out another miraculous win to stay alive, but it’s never a good idea to count OSU out. They don’t have a very good chance at winning the Big10 title, but they’re now in good shape to make a BCS game.

8) Oklahoma State

After their continued offensive dominance, I feel compelled to give Oklahoma State a little more love. They still have to beat Oklahoma this week to convince me. However, this is starting to feel like a magical season for the Cowboys, and it would no longer shock me if they won the Big 12 South.

9) LSU

Another lucky win, and no, there’s no praise for Les Miles this week. Ole Miss is not a good team. Period. A top-15 team – let alone a top-5 team – shouldn’t have any trouble with a 4-7 squad. To put it bluntly, anyone who sincerely thinks LSU passes the eye test as a great team is a fool or a homer.

10) Alabama

I moved Alabama up, but I’m not rewarding them for their shameful scheduling of first-year program Georgia State in the 11^th game. Really, that’s just disgusting. Instead, I’ve moved the Crimson Tide up because I fully expect them to give Auburn everything the Tigers can handle – if not beat them outright – on Friday.

11) Arkansas

Arkansas is in limbo as the odd good team out in the SEC West. I feel bad for the Razorbacks. This could have been their year if the division was down; instead, it’s as good as it’s ever been. However, to their credit, this team seems to have swallowed their disappointment and is still competing.

12) Michigan State

Somehow the Spartans still only have one loss. Can you imagine what would have happened this year if the Big 10’s quirky scheduling had caused MSU to miss Iowa as well as Ohio State? Yikes. We may have had the least deserving conference champion of all time.

13) Virginia Tech

I had to laugh when I saw the Miami (FL)-Tech game. It was the same old story for the Hokies – let the Hurricanes think they have a chance, then pound them into submission. Tech is headed to the ACC title game (again), and it appears that they’re going to actually win the conference after that disastrous start.

14) Missouri

Everything I’ve ever heard about Ames, Iowa suggests that it’s a very difficult place to play, so I won’t penalize the Tigers for their close win over the Austen Arnaud-less Cyclones. But this week kind of drove home my point that while Mizzou is good, they’re not great.

15) Arizona

Good time for a bye week for the ‘Cats. They got to move up in the rankings and they’ll need the extra prep time to beat the Ducks. I’m not sure why everyone is writing this game off so early – Arizona is ABSOLUTELY capable of beating the Ducks.

16) Nebraska

Once again, the Cornhuskers failed to prove that they can move the ball without Taylor Martinez. As I’ve said several times, this team is flawed. Texas A&M has improved a lot, but they’re not better than Nebraska. A 9-6 final is embarrassing.

17) Nevada

Well, here you are, Nevada. You wanted the attention and the national respect. Now go out and earn it against Boise State. It’ll be interesting to see what changes the Wolf Pack have made since last year’s debacle.

18) Oklahoma

At least there’s still one thing the Sooners can do with consistency: put Baylor in their place. Oklahoma jumped out to a big lead early on the Bears and never let up. The Bedlam game is starting to look like a very good matchup indeed.

19) South Carolina

No, South Carolina, beating Troy doesn’t impress anybody. But which is the more important contest to this team: the de facto state championship game with Clemson or the SEC championship with Auburn? Never underestimate the intensity of those Southern rivalries. If the Gamecocks come out and take came of business, we’ll know they’re ready for another shot at the Tigers.

20) USC

This is largely a symbolic ranking, because if Matt Barkley is out for a while I have zero confidence in the perpetually-overrated Mitch Mustain. But the Trojans are better than they played against Oregon State, and should bounce back considering their final opponents.

21) Iowa

Man, when is Iowa finally going to win one of those games with Ohio State? Seems like the same story every year, and every year the Hawkeyes come up a little bit short. Enjoy a lower-tier bowl, guys.

22) Florida State

FSU is the best team in the Atlantic, but unless they get some help they won’t play Virginia Tech for the ACC title. That’s what happens when you turn the ball over in key situations of big games. It’s unfortunate, because Jimbo Fisher has done a nice job in his inaugural coaching season.

23) Utah

Utah jumps back into my rankings after a wild win over San Diego State, though no one is fooled by this team any more. The Utes are now praying that TCU gets to a BCS bowl, lest they get relegated to a completely irrelevant bowl.

24) Texas A&M

I’m prepared to rank the Aggies after the second-half improvements they’ve made this season. Benching Jerrod Johnson was a gutsy move, but it paid off and improved the team in the long run. Are we witnessing the return of A&M?

25) Northern Illinois

Time to celebrate! A mid-major that I ranked didn’t promptly lose the next week! The Huskies’ chances at going undefeated in MAC play look favorable, thanks to their next opponent (Eastern Michigan) owning a 2-9 record this year.

Pac-10 thoughts

Oregon State, what is wrong with you? You guys are killing the Pac-10. You lose to the bad teams and beat all the good ones. The result is that the national media sees a team with a mediocre record and assumes they’re not very good, when in fact no one in the conference wants to play them. Can you imagine what it would look like if the Beavers put a whole season together some time? They could go undefeated! I’m not exaggerating here.

Oregon-Arizona this week figures to be a solid matchup. We’ll be lucky to get a game half as entertaining as last year’s double-OT barnburner, but these are two good teams with a pretty nasty recent history. The last two seasons UO and ‘Zona have combined to score 99 and 86, respectively. The Wildcats don’t fear Autzen, as they were one of the last Pac-10 teams to beat the Ducks at home.

The weather could have a big impact on this game. The forecast right now looks to be about 40 and raining. People assume the Arizona players will be at a disadvantage in these kind of conditions, although I’m not sure that’s true – no one wants to play in that kind of weather.

It was good to see Jake Locker win his final home game for Washington, even if you believe he was overhyped during his time behind center. The homegrown hero who twice slayed USC, he managed to dazzle us with his potential without ever really blowing us away with his production. You have to feel for Locker, who couldn’t live up to otherworldly expectations on a bad team he was expected to carry. It would be a great story if he got to go out in style in a bowl.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Oh man. Did you see this run against Cal? Are you kidding me? There have been niftier, faster, and more explosive plays by Heisman candidates this season. But none have had the sheer force of will behind them that Luck’s run did. He tore apart the rival Bears with his arm and feet. That’s why he’s number one.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Based purely on on-field performance, he’s the winner. But there’s enough doubt in my mind about his eligibility – not to mention his past transgressions – that I just don’t feel good about making him my winner. If this mess is cleared up before the ceremony, then I’ll reconsider.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Moore’s right there with Newton and Luck, but he hasn’t had a “Heisman moment” yet. And no, week one against Virginia Tech doesn’t count. Fortunately, he’ll get a chance this week versus Nevada.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

Now a bit of a longshot, in my opinion. James didn’t dominate in either of the Ducks’ last two games, so he needs a big performance against Arizona. Of course, it would help if the whole Oregon offense played a little better, too.

There should be plenty to write about this weekend as the rivalry games begin, so I hope to be able to write more in my next post. Enjoy the delicious food and spate of games.

Final pre-rivalry week

National Overview

It was a strange week for the unbeatens. Oregon, Auburn and TCU all stumbled, but not quite enough to go down. Boise State would have been primed to make a big jump in my rankings, but unfortunately for the Broncos, they played Idaho. No style points there.

Other than the top teams in peril, there wasn’t a whole lot more intrigue on Saturday. Sure, South Carolina smashed Florida to win the SEC East, but that whole division is a joke anyway. The most significant results of the day actually came from South Bend and Corvallis, where Utah and Oregon State were upset by Notre Dame and Washington State, respectively. I’ll get to the WSU win later (way to get that conference win, Cougs!), as it’s the Utah loss that will really impact the BCS.

Obviously, TCU’s credibility is in tatters now. The Horned Frogs’ huge marquee victory has been rendered meaningless, and their only other win of note came against Oregon State, who Boise beat by a larger margin. The Broncos have already passed TCU in the polls and will likely move ahead of the Horned Frogs in the BCS if they get past Nevada.

Meanwhile, the insane Big 10 race keeps chugging right along toward what appears to be a crazy conclusion. It’s very possible the conference could see three teams (Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State) finish 7-1 in league play. MSU beat Wisconsin, the Badgers beat the Buckeyes, and OSU and MSU don’t play each other. Iowa’s loss to Northwestern this past week helped clear things up a lot, but there’s still room for a lot of confusion if one (or more) of the top three teams stumbles.

And yes, the ACC and Big East are still terrible.

Top 25

As I said before, Boise would have moved even higher had they not played Idaho. But that’s the breaks you get when you play a horrible schedule. The good news for the Broncos is that they’ve only played nine games and should move up with more wins. Oregon would have fallen in the rankings, but Auburn also struggled to pull away from Georgia and TCU only won by five.

1) Oregon

An ugly first half against Washington was followed by an ugly full game against Cal. Say what you want about the Bear defense; the truth is that Oregon is not clicking as they did earlier in the year. The Ducks are still undefeated, but they have two eminently losable games left and can’t afford to keep playing like this.

2) Auburn

Same old story for the Tigers – defensive issues, explosive offense. This time they actually let their opposition take a significant lead before running away from them, but like Oregon, you’ve got to wonder if they can continue to play like that and get away with it. Big-time receivers have scorched this secondary, and Julio Jones of Alabama is up next.

3) Boise State

No doubt about it now – Boise is the best non-BCS team. They’ll have a chance to pad their resume a bit in the coming weeks, but the best scenario they can hope for still involves either Auburn or Oregon losing. If that happens, I have no qualms about putting the Broncos in the title game.

4) TCU

It was a bad, bad week for the Horned Frogs. Their on-field performance didn’t do them any favors (despite the fact that San Diego State is pretty good), and they took a double shot when Utah and Oregon State got blown out. They now have no wins that support the idea that they’re an elite team.

5) Stanford

Survive and advance must have been the theme in the Pac-10 this week. The Cardinal were lucky to escape from the desert with a win over Arizona State, but they did what they had to do. Stanford is still in a tenuous position as far as the BCS goes, but with so much football left to be played, all they can do is focus on finishing with just one loss.

6) Wisconsin

83 points is never justified, I’m sorry. You don’t get any credit for running up the score. That being said, Wisconsin is a very good team, and if they win out they deserve a BCS bid. The Big 10 has been tough enough this year to actually warrant multiple BCS berths, which hasn’t been the case in the past.

7) Nebraska

Could the Cornhuskers really ride a freshman to the Big 12 title? If so, it would be an indictment of two things: one, the quality of the rest of the players Nebraska now has on the roster; and two, the drop in quality of about half the conference’s teams. It sounds harsh, but the Big 12 isn’t scaring anyone these days.

8) LSU

Oh, look. Another SEC team playing a mid-major in November. What, McNeese State three weeks ago wasn’t enough of a challenge? It’s ridiculous that the computers still love the Tigers so much despite the fact that they have just a single good win (Alabama), but you do have to admire their perseverance in getting to this point in the season with only one loss.

9) Ohio State

Ah, Ohio State. The forgotten power. It’s still very possible that the Buckeyes could get another BCS bid, but I truly hope we don’t see that scenario. That’s not really because I think OSU is bad, because they’re not. They just haven’t done anything on the field to make themselves worthy. The single great team they played beat them.

10) Oklahoma State

Okie State is still hanging around, and with that defense, I don’t know how. I can’t tell if the Cowboys have just taken advantage of the weakened Big 12 South or if they’re really a contender. If they keep up their winning ways, though, we’ll find out: first against Oklahoma in the Bedlam Game, then perhaps in a rematch with Nebraska for the conference championship.

11) Arkansas

Arkansas is another team kind of biding their time. The SEC title is out of reach, but fortunately for the Razorbacks the SEC’s bowl tie-ins are so good they’ll likely end up in a New Year’s Day bowl anyway. Right now, the biggest thing killing this team is their division alignment; they’d be kings if they were in the East.

12) Michigan State

MSU’s lucky that Iowa went down again, which clears the path for them. The road is now simple: win out and win the Big 10. I’d kind of like to see a new team win the league, so I’ll be rooting for the Spartans. They realistically should not lose again.

13) Alabama

‘Bama seemed to get some of its mojo back with that spanking of Mississippi State. Can they take down Auburn and ruin their rival’s dreams? I feel as if it’s very possible, though it’ll take as focused an effort as we saw this week to pull it off.

14) USC

It is possible that Lane Kiffin is a… gulp… good coach? I don’t know how you can not be impressed by what he’s done this year with the Trojans. 7-3, with a good shot at 10-3 (USC plays 13 games in the regular season this year) is really good, considering that this team has essentially been playing against the whole world this year.

15) Virginia Tech

Hmmm. Eight straight wins. But even if the Hokies finish 10-2, they won’t have beaten anyone in the top 25. This team is either very good or a product of the awful ACC. My ranking hints at which way I’m leaning. They have to really knock Miami (FL) around this week to impress me.

16) Missouri

It looks like this team will finish with only two losses, but it’s hard to get excited about a team that was exposed so quickly once the national spotlight was on them before. The Tigers are good, yes, but hardly great. There’s a reason they were down 24-0 in the first quarter versus Nebraska.

17) Arizona

‘Zona is no longer looked at very favorably, but I think that given their injury issues you have to cut them some slack. Losing to USC by three is nothing to be ashamed of. I expect them to give Oregon a good game next week. They just can’t quite seem to get over the hump from good to great.

18) Iowa

Northwestern is pretty good, but Iowa is definitely more talented. The Hawkeyes shouldn’t lose to the Wildcats, ever. The bad version of Ricky Stanzi has reemerged late in the year, which is exactly what Iowa didn’t need. Will they finish the year with pride now that the Big 10 title is out of reach?

19) Nevada

I haven’t been particularly kind to Nevada this year. Their win over Fresno State this week made me reevaluate them a little. No, they’re still not great, but they showed a lot of resolve in coming back and them holding off the Bulldogs. I hope they can give Boise a better game than last year.

20) Oklahoma

The Sooners are… odd. I feel as if they should be better than they are. They’ve undoubtedly been disappointing this season. However, they can still win both the division and conference if they win out, so it’s probably not smart to write them off just yet.

21) South Carolina

OK, South Carolina, you can hang around in the rankings for a while. The Gamecocks domination of Florida was good enough for them to earn their way back into my top 25, but I don’t anyone is really fooled about these guys. They’re a very flawed team, and the rematch with Auburn in the SEC championship will likely be a disaster.

22) Northwestern

It figures that as soon as Northwestern gets a little glory, their quarterback goes down. Sorry, Dan Persa. I moved the Wildcats into my rankings for now because, by all rights, they should be here at the end of the season. Unfortunately, Persa’s injury will probably prevent that.

23) Florida State

I don’t really think FSU is that good. There just aren’t a whole lot of other teams that deserve to be ranked. To be fair, the Seminoles are probably the second-best team in the conference. Of course, that conference is the ACC, so that doesn’t count for much. But 7-3 isn’t terrible.

24) San Diego State

Even with a loss, I think the Aztecs deserve a spot in the top 25. Do you realize how good TCU’s defense was before last week? SDSU put up 35 on the nation’s best defense, and they’re still 7-3 with the loss. This is actually a quality team, though not really quality enough to help out the Horned Frogs.

25) Northern Illinois

A MAC team? In the top 25? Hey, why not? As I said, there aren’t a lot of worthy teams out there, and NIU is decent. The Huskies could very easily finish the year with two 1,000-yard rushers, and they’ve appropriately run roughshod through their conference, winning each game by at least a touchdown.

Pac-10 Thoughts

Wow. Who would have thought that the team WSU would finally get a win against would be a Mike Riley team? A fundamentally sound, smart, well-coached Riley team? Really? There’s no one thing wrong with the Beavers – their offensive line is getting them killed, they desperately need another playmaker in the absence of James Rodgers, and their defense is porous – but I’m still shocked that they went down to the Cougars.

It’s hard not to be happy for WSU, though. That team has suffered enough the past few years and deserved to beat somebody. I’m glad that my prediction that they wouldn’t go winless came true, too. It’s a mark of how bad they’ve been that they were still a 23-point underdog to the slumping Beavers last week. Paul Wulff has visibly improved the program, even if it was just one win.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck wasn’t at his best against ASU. No matter. He still went 33-41 for 292 yards and calmly led the game-winning drive. I don’t know how people can argue that he’s not the best QB in the country. He’s certainly the most NFL-ready, and he looks like a pro right now out there against college defenses.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Newton was excellent against Georgia. I wish I could say that he’s deserving of the Heisman. But the truth is that, regardless of his off-field actions, he’s not the best player at his position. And it’s always easier to run from the QB position. I believe Luck is a better player.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Moore continued his flawless command of the Boise offense against Idaho. Once again, though, his competition just kills him. If he played better defenses (and opposing offenses that could score and put his team in a tough situation) he’d be a shoo-in.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

It’s a good sign that 91 yards on a gimpy ankle is disappointing, but the Oregon offense has actually underperformed for a couple of games in a row. James’ stats have been a victim of this, and he’s slowly slipping from “Heisman contender” to just “Heisman finalist.” The latter is still an honor, but it’s not where Oregon fans want him to be.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I have to apologize to Central Florida. Last week I said the Golden Knights could win out, so of course they promptly went out and lost their next game. The same thing happened when I said Oregon State would finish strong a week earlier. It’s hardly the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, but still…

Speaking of that particular curse, I thought it was interesting when SI picked players from TCU, Oregon, and Auburn for the cover of their most recent issue and ignored also-undefeated Boise State. However, the Broncos are probably all right with the lack of respect; the Ducks, Tigers, and Horned Frogs all played close games this weekend, while Boise rolled yet again.

I’m glad to see the media picked up the Jim McMahon story so readily, but unfortunately concussion problems are still way too covered up. In case you didn’t see, McMahon, a longtime pro QB, said that has frequent blackout and memory loss periods relating to the numerous concussions he suffered during his playing days.

McMahon’s story is indicative of the attitude that has long plagued football regarding head injuries. There have long been tales of players from the 50’s and 60’s who experienced symptoms similar to McMahon’s. It’s sickening that the NFL hasn’t done anything to take care of its former players who gave so much to the game. Because the league has failed so miserably on concussions, though, the role of college coaches is ever more important.

I mentioned in an earlier post that college coaches are responsible for making sure they remove players from the field to prevent them from hurting themselves. Some coaches, like Oregon’s Chip Kelly and Oregon State’s Mike Riley, have done this. I applauded Riley for holding James Rodgers out of the remainder of the Boise State game when Rodgers took a hard hit, and Kelly held Kenjon Barner out for an entire month after the nasty blow he took against WSU.

Both coaches said they were just following the trainers’ recommendations, but that’s what’s so critical about it: most coaches don’t do that. In the instant-gratification sports era we live in, if a coach isn’t doing everything he can to win, he gets crucified. Coaches know that their reputations, their salaries, even their jobs can swing on a couple of plays. Consequently, most of them play guys who shouldn’t be out on the field. It’s ruthless, but can you blame them when their jobs are potentially on the line and they need every advantage they can get? That’s why coaches like Kelly and Riley are important to single out for their decisions that take their players’ well-being into account.

I’ve kept my mouth shut on the Cam Newton saga as long as I can, but I just can’t do it anymore. In short, yes, I’m sure something dirty went down during Newton’s recruiting. A bigger question is whether anything is provable. I’m sorry, but people aren’t idiots. If there was one allegation, it would be easier to dismiss the charges as bogus, but we’re looking at multiple serious attacks on Newton’s character.

From the laptop incident to the cheating at Florida to the money-for-hire nature of his recruitment, it’s clear that something is up. These aren’t related incidents; they’re separate situations that all cast doubt onto the man.

I’ve read a lot of Alabama news and fan comments in the past few weeks, and the near-unanimous position from Auburn fans is that the whole thing is just a big character assassination plot. To hear AU fans tell it, the list of shady conspirators is long, and possibly includes a bitter Florida (mad that Newton left), possibly includes a frustrated Alabama (disgusted with their in-state rival’s success), and possibly includes a jealous Oregon (using its Nike connections to slam an UnderArmour school and player), but definitely includes jilted Mississippi State (who almost signed Newton).

I mean, come on. Look at what I just wrote. This would be the most absurd sports story of all time if it were true. What’s more likely, that a player broke the rules, like so many players before him… or that he’s somehow the victim of a sinister conspiracy designed to keep him from winning the Heisman at all costs, and potentially stretches from coast to coast? Use some common sense.

I say this not because I want Newton to be guilty. That’s not true at all. But we’ve seen this kind of situation before. Look at the Reggie Bush situation. Bush, USC and Pete Carroll denied any wrongdoing endlessly. Trojan fans badmouthed anyone who thought Bush was guilty, calling them “haters” and accusing them of being jealous of the USC dynasty. That turned out well.

I’m actually more qualified than most fans to talk about this kind of thing. Um, does anyone remember Jeremiah Masoli and LaptopGate? (What is it with QB’s and laptops, anyway?) Do you think Oregon fans wanted to believe he was guilty? Of course not! The majority of Oregon fans defended Masoli for months, even though he wasn’t even charged by the Eugene Police for some time after the incident took place (everyone knew the “suspect” was Masoli due to shady reporting tactics used by The Oregonian to get his name. But that’s a topic for another time).

The fact is that Duck fans behaved much in the same way USC fans did before them, just as Auburn fans are doing now. Every time something like this happens to a star player, fans seem to forget how they attacked other teams’ guys and furiously defend their own man, whom they claim is just a victim. Tigers, do you think you’re the first group of fans to act this way?

All you have to do is look at how those other incidents turned out. And it’s truly a shame, because Newton is having a marvelous season that should be celebrated, not disgraced. If the charges against him are true, he deserves everything he gets. Nothing has been proved yet, but I don’t know how a rational person who isn’t a completely blind homer can look at this whole situation and not just sense that a sad conclusion is coming.

Rumbling toward the season's end

National Overview

It didn’t feel like a week of significant change, but this week actually saw the highest number of ranked teams lose ever. In all, nine teams in the top 25 went down, headlined by Alabama’s stunning loss at LSU. It’s hard to believe that this is the same Crimson Tide offense that was so great a year ago.

LSU is somehow, someway, still alive for not only the SEC but the BCS championship. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a good team as bad as this, or a bad team as good as this, whichever the Tigers are. LSU can’t put away anybody, struggles mightily on offense, and makes critical mistakes late in games. But they keep winning. Divine providence is almost too simple of an explanation for their success.

The Big 12 took some hits this week with Oklahoma, Missouri and Baylor going down and Nebraska almost losing to Iowa State. It’s clear at this point that the conference doesn’t have a true title contender. Nebraska is the closest thing to one, and anyone who loses to Texas has no business being in BCS championship contention.

The Big East’s run to ruination continued when banged-up Louisville took down Syracuse, virtually ensuring that Pittsburgh will win the league’s automatic BCS bid. Oh, you mean the same Pitt team that lost to Notre Dame and got blown out by Miami (FL)? Yes. Yes I do. The Big East is terrible. There’s no doubt about it.

The ACC also fared poorly this week. League leader Virginia Tech was lucky to escape with a win versus Georgia Tech, while the only other ranked teams in the conference (Florida State, North Carolina State) were upset. The ACC can certainly claim that it’s stronger than the Big East, but that’s truly all it can claim. Football in this region is astonishingly bad.

The Pac-10 had a pretty good weekend in terms of how the nation views the league thanks to Oregon and Stanford looking like they will both close out the year strong. However, Oregon State’s surprising loss to UCLA and Arizona State’s loss to USC cast a lot of doubt onto whether the conference can fill its bowl allotments. That would be a big loss for the Pac-10’s profile.

Top 25

TCU’s win over Utah was impressive, even if it did confirm the notion that the Utes were pretty overrated. I don’t like taking too much from just a single game, but at the same time I have to allow my rankings to be flexible if they’re going to be accurate. Because of this, the Horned Frogs are up at number two this week, just ahead of Auburn. That can change (and will, if the Tigers beat Alabama), but TCU should be rewarded for what they did. Oregon holds onto the top spot because: a) unlike Auburn, they played a real live team this week and b) they played just awful and still won by five touchdowns.

1) Oregon

The final score was not reflective of how Oregon and Washington looked on Saturday. The fact that the Ducks played as sloppy as they did and still ran off 50 is pretty ridiculous. With a focused effort, they could have put up 80. But the slow starts have to stop if Oregon wants to continue their dream season.

2) TCU

Good results get rewards. TCU beat Utah by 40, racked up more than 500 yards of offense and held the Utes to under 200. In their own house. That kind of shellacking merits a jump in the rankings. If the Horned Frogs don’t blow out San Diego State and New Mexico they’ll move back down, but for now I’m quite comfortable moving them ahead of Auburn.

3) Auburn

Auburn fans will likely be indignant at dropping a spot, but that’s what you get when you play an FCS team in November. I have zero respect for that. It allows you to break up your schedule with a late-season “gimme” game when everyone else is battling real teams and it pads players’ stats artificially. Win out, and Auburn will move back up. Until then they’ll be punished.

4) Boise State

It’s unfortunate that Boise had to annihilate Hawaii on the same day TCU did the same to Utah. The Broncos’ performance was beyond impressive, holding the high-flying Warriors’ attack to fewer than 200 yards – their lowest output in more than a decade – and exploding for over 700 yards on offense. But Hawaii is not Utah As such, I can’t move them up in the same way.

5) Stanford

There is no question that Stanford is the best one-loss team. None. Say what you will about LSU – and they did show me a lot this week – the fact remains that the Cardinal have only lost to the nation’s top team and have been much better than the Tigers to this point. An 11-1 finish appears likely, and if that doesn’t garner a BCS berth the system is truly broken.

6) Wisconsin

The Badgers survived an early scare from Purdue and continued their rumble toward a possible Big 10 title. They still need help to get there, but Michigan State has looked anything but dominant against good competition of late. It’d be rough for Bucky to get passed over for a BCS bowl again with one loss, as they were in 2006, but if comes down to Wisconsin and Stanford the Cardinal deserve it more.

7) Nebraska

Let’s be honest: Nebraska is a quality team, but they’re not elite. Elite teams don’t lose to Texas or go to overtime with Iowa State. The Cornhuskers seem to fluctuate between good and great at random, and they’ll need to step up their game if they want to win the Big 12. I’d actually like to see it because it’d be a nasty parting slap to the face of the conference

8) LSU

Well, well, well. It goes against everything football truth I believe, but I think I have to write these words: LSU is… (No… must resist…) good? How about we settle for “not bad” and leave it at that? The Tigers showed grit and heart by defeating Alabama. But I just can’t get over the fact that they should have lost to at least three other teams.

9) Ohio State

The Buckeyes better use their bye week effectively and finish the season on a tear if they want to get back to a BCS bowl. Iowa will be on this team’s mind, but even a mediocre Penn State team could upset OSU if they’re not focused.

10) Arkansas

Arkansas definitively proved that the SEC East is a joke with their beatdown of South Carolina. Too bad the Razorbacks play in the West, where they are likely only the fourth-best squad. I have them ranked higher than Alabama only because Arkansas blew that game and the Tide appear to be slowing down as the year progresses.

11) Oklahoma State

I’m ready to give some credit to this team for what they’ve accomplished, but that doesn’t mean that they’re great. Beating up Baylor was nice, though other teams have done that too. The Cowboys have yet to demonstrate that they can stop teams on a regular basis. They’ll need to if they want to win the division and a trip to the conference championship.

12) Arizona

Getting smacked around by Stanford isn’t the most embarrassing thing that could happen to a team. If you think Stanford is as good as I do, Saturday’s result isn’t too surprising. ‘Zona was banged up and had to go on the road (albeit to a very tame venue) to play a better opponent. That’s all. In the interest of fairness to the Wildcats I have to keep them ahead of Iowa, and if they can get their QB’s healthy they can still finish with a solid record.

13) Iowa

Iowa remains below Arizona because the teams have the same record. Had the Hawkeyes not lost at home to Wisconsin I’d be happy to move them higher, but identical records and a head-to-head loss to Arizona dictate that they don’t. With so many one-loss teams in Big 10 play it’s going to be very interesting to see how the season ends.

14) Michigan State

This situation is a little different than the Iowa-Arizona one. Michigan State was clearly and obviously a weaker team than Iowa, so I have no qualms about leaving them down here in the rankings despite the Spartans’ superior record. This team had a charmed existence for the first two months of 2010, but they’ve been exposed now.

15) Alabama

Wow. I’m stunned. I didn’t think LSU had any chance of beating the Tide, but as I have noted several times this year, Alabama just doesn’t look like Alabama. The name is there, the players are there, the coach is there, and yet something is off. They could still rebound and ruin Auburn’s season, but it’s extremely unlikely that this team will make a return trip to the SEC championship.

16) Utah

Uh-huh. Everyone who screamed all year that Utah hadn’t beaten anyone was proved most correct against TCU. That game served as a valuable lesson, not only to the voters but to me as well: don’t rank a team highly based solely on their record. Because the Utes, with their proud BCS-busting past, were undefeated, people awarded them a top-10 ranking they simply didn’t deserve. We have to learn from this lapse in judgment.

17) Virginia Tech

Tech looked like anything but a top 25 team against Georgia Tech and should have lost. However, they didn’t, so I can’t rightfully punish them. Just let it be known that the Hokies are not really a cut above the rest of the middling ACC, as some believed.

18) USC

Arizona State shouldn’t have been able to make that game as close as they did. That said, with nothing to play for and their season on the verge of collapse, USC did what they had to in order to secure a victory. The Trojans could easily have folded and gone home, but they didn’t. Lane Kiffin deserves some credit for that.

19) Missouri

I’m willing to semi-excuse the Tigers’ loss to Texas Tech because they were obviously in a post-Nebraska funk. But if they want to stay in the rankings, they have to rebound fast. Kansas State is very capable of beating them too. These guys have to have some pride right now or their season could turn ugly.

20) Nevada

I actually doubt that Nevada is this good, but upon a second glance at some other teams’ schedules I moved the Wolf Pack up higher. It’s hard to judge Nevada because they’re not a good team in the normal sense; it’s more a matter of how they match up with other teams. Their offense can confound some defenses and get stuffed by others, regardless of personnel. They’re definitely one of the best 25 teams in the country, though.

21) Mississippi State

The Bulldogs are 7-2 and ranked, yet no one is talking about them. Well, that’s because they’ve lost to both the quality teams they’ve played and their best win is over Florida. Win this week’s contest at Alabama and then we’ll talk.

22) Oklahoma

Yeesh. I mean, Texas A&M? Come on, Oklahoma. Because of the Sooners’ inability to beat inferior teams, the Big 12 South race has been blown wide open. Right now, I’d predict Oklahoma State to beat this team for the division title. That would be the ultimate embarrassment for this proud program.

23) South Carolina

I’m keeping the Gamecocks in my rankings because they can still get a little mileage out of their Alabama upset. Unfortunately, it’s become apparent that game was a fluke and that South Carolina is the fifth-best team in the SEC. Maybe. It would have to be considered a complete failure of a season if they can’t knock off Florida for the division title this week.

24) Kansas State

K-State laid into Texas for the second time in the past few years. What a performance. Alas, if only the Wildcats hadn’t let last-second losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor slip away. Instead of playing for a decent bowl bid, they’d be playing for a shot at the Big 12 North championship. It’ll be interesting to see what they can do this week against suddenly flat Mizzou.

25) UCF

One of the Golden Knights’ two losses was by four to K-State, the other came by a TD to a solid North Carolina State team. You might scoff at their schedule, but the two squads they just beat back-to-back – ECU and Houston – could beat a lot of BCS-conference teams. They have a good shot at running the table the rest of the way and finishing 11-2 as conference champs.

Pac-10 Thoughts

I suppose it’s fitting that the one year I pick Oregon State to continue their improbable late-season winning trend, the Beavers self-destruct. Every season I assumed that this was the year OSU couldn’t put it all together, and every time I was wrong. Well, it seems I was wrong again this year. The UCLA game revealed a startling truth: OSU is average. The defense is, for the first time in years, completely inept, and the Beavs’ offensive line has just been awful. They’ve only got two conference losses, so a nice bowl isn’t out of the picture, but something has to drastically change if this team is going to beat USC, Stanford or Oregon.

My Washington State prediction was a little more on-point this week, but Cal did just enough to continue the Cougars’ misery. WSU’s hopes of winning a Pac-10 game now appear to rest solely on the Apple Cup. For their sake, I hope they can get a win before the year ends. The team has clearly improved over the last couple of months and doesn’t deserve to go 0-9.

Cal, for their part, continued their horrible road play, squeaking out a seven-point win in Pullman. I know the Bears had just lost Kevin Riley and were playing away from home, but there’s still no excuse for it. The bizarre thing is that Cal’s home performances to date make picking this week’s Oregon game very confusing. Could they actually do the unthinkable and play fantastic to upset the Ducks? The Bears have been so different at home than on the road. Maybe it’s possible.

Stanford’s dominance over Arizona cemented their place as the best team with a loss. It would be an absolute outrage at this point if Stanford (and Oregon) won out and was denied a BCS berth. The Cardinal just shredded a team that beat a first-place Big 10 team (Iowa is technically half a game behind Michigan State, but the Spartans have played one more game and both teams have one loss). Stanford could roll up 40 points on almost anyone in the country.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

After his performance against ‘Zona (and Washington, and WSU, and USC…) I’m moving Luck to number one. He has been flawless this year, completing more than 50% of his passes in every game but one (a 35-0 romp over UCLA) and directing the Stanford offense with the command of a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Luck is the nation’s best QB.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Luck is the best QB, but Newton has been the best player. I moved him down a week because inflating your numbers against an FCS foe doesn’t impress me. However, Newton’s stats appear to be the least of his worries. Provable or not, his alleged off-field actions have become too prominent to ignore. I’ve kept him on my list until we have more information, but if any of this stuff is true he should absolutely be blackballed by the Heisman voters.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Until this week, Moore hadn’t had the kind of “wow” game that got him a lot of attention. His 500 yards against Hawaii changed that in a hurry. The whole “Heisman for a career” debate is tired, so I won’t go into that. What’s obvious is that Moore is an outstanding QB, probably second in the nation behind Luck. To be more than a finalist, though, he’ll have to get the Broncos to the title game, which just got a lot harder.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

I’ve thought a lot about this, and it probably won’t make Oregon fans happy. But after reexamining James’ performance this season and what the Heisman is supposed to mean, I came to a conclusion: he is not the nation’s best player. He is the best player on the best team, which in the past has often won players the trophy. But he has not been – nor is he – the best player in the country. He should be a finalist, but unless he reels off some incredible games to end the season he should not be the winner.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Surprise, surprise. The MAC is actually playing some good football right now. The conference usually doesn’t have this much intrigue in November, but things have changed this year. Though the league boasts the FBS’ only winless team in Akron (way to go on that first win last week, New Mexico!), there’s a lot of quality at the top.

There’s a three-way scramble atop the East division, with Temple, Ohio and Miami (OH) all locked up with one loss. Guess who Temple plays the next two weeks? Ohio and Miami. In the West, conference unbeatens Northern Illinois and Toledo meet tonight to determine the division winner. It’s shaping up to actually be a pretty good end to the MAC season.

I’ve ragged on LSU’s Les Miles many times, for good reason. He is a poor play caller, questionable decision maker, and an absolutely inept clock manager. However, I am nothing if not fair, and therefore I have to give credit where it is due. Miles coached an excellent game against Alabama on Saturday, and was a big reason the Tigers upset the Tide. The reverse LSU ran on fourth-and-one was outstanding.

Just because Miles had a good game this week, however, does not mean that his previous, er, transgressions are forgiven. Some news accounts of the Alabama game seemed to imply that the game was proof that Miles actually does always know what he’s doing. That is idiotic. Making terrible decisions and getting lucky doesn’t prove that the decisions were good ones. There is no relationship between the two things, and one good game plan doesn’t absolve Miles of the multitude of bad ones he’s had in the past.

It’s unclear if anyone wants to win the ACC. With chances to pull away from the pack recently, Florida State and North Carolina State have lost. The Atlantic Division now features three teams with 6-3 overall records and two league losses (the Seminoles, Wolfpack and Maryland). In the Coastal Division, Virginia Tech looks like they should run away with the title, but they could still finish behind Miami (FL) and North Carolina, a pair of two-loss teams they haven’t yet played.

The level of perfect mediocrity in the conference is just absurd. What happened to the ACC? I mentioned last year that adding Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College was supposed to turn the ACC into a 12-team superconference like the SEC and Big 12. In short, it just didn’t happen. Adding some quality opponents abruptly ended FSU’s dominant rein, Miami fell apart shortly after joining, and Boston College has never quite lived up to expectations (two division titles notwithstanding). I think the ACC just got unlucky that so many of its teams went into the tank right at the wrong time. The one team that’s come out of this looking good is the Hokies, who have used the rubble of what was once a respected conference as a stepping stone to three of the first five Coastal Division titles and a pair of ACC championships.

Next week: things stay exactly the same (barring a major upset). I'm headed down to Berkeley this weekend to see Oregon and Cal, so the next update might take a while.