Rumbling toward the season's end

National Overview

It didn’t feel like a week of significant change, but this week actually saw the highest number of ranked teams lose ever. In all, nine teams in the top 25 went down, headlined by Alabama’s stunning loss at LSU. It’s hard to believe that this is the same Crimson Tide offense that was so great a year ago.

LSU is somehow, someway, still alive for not only the SEC but the BCS championship. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a good team as bad as this, or a bad team as good as this, whichever the Tigers are. LSU can’t put away anybody, struggles mightily on offense, and makes critical mistakes late in games. But they keep winning. Divine providence is almost too simple of an explanation for their success.

The Big 12 took some hits this week with Oklahoma, Missouri and Baylor going down and Nebraska almost losing to Iowa State. It’s clear at this point that the conference doesn’t have a true title contender. Nebraska is the closest thing to one, and anyone who loses to Texas has no business being in BCS championship contention.

The Big East’s run to ruination continued when banged-up Louisville took down Syracuse, virtually ensuring that Pittsburgh will win the league’s automatic BCS bid. Oh, you mean the same Pitt team that lost to Notre Dame and got blown out by Miami (FL)? Yes. Yes I do. The Big East is terrible. There’s no doubt about it.

The ACC also fared poorly this week. League leader Virginia Tech was lucky to escape with a win versus Georgia Tech, while the only other ranked teams in the conference (Florida State, North Carolina State) were upset. The ACC can certainly claim that it’s stronger than the Big East, but that’s truly all it can claim. Football in this region is astonishingly bad.

The Pac-10 had a pretty good weekend in terms of how the nation views the league thanks to Oregon and Stanford looking like they will both close out the year strong. However, Oregon State’s surprising loss to UCLA and Arizona State’s loss to USC cast a lot of doubt onto whether the conference can fill its bowl allotments. That would be a big loss for the Pac-10’s profile.

Top 25

TCU’s win over Utah was impressive, even if it did confirm the notion that the Utes were pretty overrated. I don’t like taking too much from just a single game, but at the same time I have to allow my rankings to be flexible if they’re going to be accurate. Because of this, the Horned Frogs are up at number two this week, just ahead of Auburn. That can change (and will, if the Tigers beat Alabama), but TCU should be rewarded for what they did. Oregon holds onto the top spot because: a) unlike Auburn, they played a real live team this week and b) they played just awful and still won by five touchdowns.

1) Oregon

The final score was not reflective of how Oregon and Washington looked on Saturday. The fact that the Ducks played as sloppy as they did and still ran off 50 is pretty ridiculous. With a focused effort, they could have put up 80. But the slow starts have to stop if Oregon wants to continue their dream season.

2) TCU

Good results get rewards. TCU beat Utah by 40, racked up more than 500 yards of offense and held the Utes to under 200. In their own house. That kind of shellacking merits a jump in the rankings. If the Horned Frogs don’t blow out San Diego State and New Mexico they’ll move back down, but for now I’m quite comfortable moving them ahead of Auburn.

3) Auburn

Auburn fans will likely be indignant at dropping a spot, but that’s what you get when you play an FCS team in November. I have zero respect for that. It allows you to break up your schedule with a late-season “gimme” game when everyone else is battling real teams and it pads players’ stats artificially. Win out, and Auburn will move back up. Until then they’ll be punished.

4) Boise State

It’s unfortunate that Boise had to annihilate Hawaii on the same day TCU did the same to Utah. The Broncos’ performance was beyond impressive, holding the high-flying Warriors’ attack to fewer than 200 yards – their lowest output in more than a decade – and exploding for over 700 yards on offense. But Hawaii is not Utah As such, I can’t move them up in the same way.

5) Stanford

There is no question that Stanford is the best one-loss team. None. Say what you will about LSU – and they did show me a lot this week – the fact remains that the Cardinal have only lost to the nation’s top team and have been much better than the Tigers to this point. An 11-1 finish appears likely, and if that doesn’t garner a BCS berth the system is truly broken.

6) Wisconsin

The Badgers survived an early scare from Purdue and continued their rumble toward a possible Big 10 title. They still need help to get there, but Michigan State has looked anything but dominant against good competition of late. It’d be rough for Bucky to get passed over for a BCS bowl again with one loss, as they were in 2006, but if comes down to Wisconsin and Stanford the Cardinal deserve it more.

7) Nebraska

Let’s be honest: Nebraska is a quality team, but they’re not elite. Elite teams don’t lose to Texas or go to overtime with Iowa State. The Cornhuskers seem to fluctuate between good and great at random, and they’ll need to step up their game if they want to win the Big 12. I’d actually like to see it because it’d be a nasty parting slap to the face of the conference

8) LSU

Well, well, well. It goes against everything football truth I believe, but I think I have to write these words: LSU is… (No… must resist…) good? How about we settle for “not bad” and leave it at that? The Tigers showed grit and heart by defeating Alabama. But I just can’t get over the fact that they should have lost to at least three other teams.

9) Ohio State

The Buckeyes better use their bye week effectively and finish the season on a tear if they want to get back to a BCS bowl. Iowa will be on this team’s mind, but even a mediocre Penn State team could upset OSU if they’re not focused.

10) Arkansas

Arkansas definitively proved that the SEC East is a joke with their beatdown of South Carolina. Too bad the Razorbacks play in the West, where they are likely only the fourth-best squad. I have them ranked higher than Alabama only because Arkansas blew that game and the Tide appear to be slowing down as the year progresses.

11) Oklahoma State

I’m ready to give some credit to this team for what they’ve accomplished, but that doesn’t mean that they’re great. Beating up Baylor was nice, though other teams have done that too. The Cowboys have yet to demonstrate that they can stop teams on a regular basis. They’ll need to if they want to win the division and a trip to the conference championship.

12) Arizona

Getting smacked around by Stanford isn’t the most embarrassing thing that could happen to a team. If you think Stanford is as good as I do, Saturday’s result isn’t too surprising. ‘Zona was banged up and had to go on the road (albeit to a very tame venue) to play a better opponent. That’s all. In the interest of fairness to the Wildcats I have to keep them ahead of Iowa, and if they can get their QB’s healthy they can still finish with a solid record.

13) Iowa

Iowa remains below Arizona because the teams have the same record. Had the Hawkeyes not lost at home to Wisconsin I’d be happy to move them higher, but identical records and a head-to-head loss to Arizona dictate that they don’t. With so many one-loss teams in Big 10 play it’s going to be very interesting to see how the season ends.

14) Michigan State

This situation is a little different than the Iowa-Arizona one. Michigan State was clearly and obviously a weaker team than Iowa, so I have no qualms about leaving them down here in the rankings despite the Spartans’ superior record. This team had a charmed existence for the first two months of 2010, but they’ve been exposed now.

15) Alabama

Wow. I’m stunned. I didn’t think LSU had any chance of beating the Tide, but as I have noted several times this year, Alabama just doesn’t look like Alabama. The name is there, the players are there, the coach is there, and yet something is off. They could still rebound and ruin Auburn’s season, but it’s extremely unlikely that this team will make a return trip to the SEC championship.

16) Utah

Uh-huh. Everyone who screamed all year that Utah hadn’t beaten anyone was proved most correct against TCU. That game served as a valuable lesson, not only to the voters but to me as well: don’t rank a team highly based solely on their record. Because the Utes, with their proud BCS-busting past, were undefeated, people awarded them a top-10 ranking they simply didn’t deserve. We have to learn from this lapse in judgment.

17) Virginia Tech

Tech looked like anything but a top 25 team against Georgia Tech and should have lost. However, they didn’t, so I can’t rightfully punish them. Just let it be known that the Hokies are not really a cut above the rest of the middling ACC, as some believed.

18) USC

Arizona State shouldn’t have been able to make that game as close as they did. That said, with nothing to play for and their season on the verge of collapse, USC did what they had to in order to secure a victory. The Trojans could easily have folded and gone home, but they didn’t. Lane Kiffin deserves some credit for that.

19) Missouri

I’m willing to semi-excuse the Tigers’ loss to Texas Tech because they were obviously in a post-Nebraska funk. But if they want to stay in the rankings, they have to rebound fast. Kansas State is very capable of beating them too. These guys have to have some pride right now or their season could turn ugly.

20) Nevada

I actually doubt that Nevada is this good, but upon a second glance at some other teams’ schedules I moved the Wolf Pack up higher. It’s hard to judge Nevada because they’re not a good team in the normal sense; it’s more a matter of how they match up with other teams. Their offense can confound some defenses and get stuffed by others, regardless of personnel. They’re definitely one of the best 25 teams in the country, though.

21) Mississippi State

The Bulldogs are 7-2 and ranked, yet no one is talking about them. Well, that’s because they’ve lost to both the quality teams they’ve played and their best win is over Florida. Win this week’s contest at Alabama and then we’ll talk.

22) Oklahoma

Yeesh. I mean, Texas A&M? Come on, Oklahoma. Because of the Sooners’ inability to beat inferior teams, the Big 12 South race has been blown wide open. Right now, I’d predict Oklahoma State to beat this team for the division title. That would be the ultimate embarrassment for this proud program.

23) South Carolina

I’m keeping the Gamecocks in my rankings because they can still get a little mileage out of their Alabama upset. Unfortunately, it’s become apparent that game was a fluke and that South Carolina is the fifth-best team in the SEC. Maybe. It would have to be considered a complete failure of a season if they can’t knock off Florida for the division title this week.

24) Kansas State

K-State laid into Texas for the second time in the past few years. What a performance. Alas, if only the Wildcats hadn’t let last-second losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor slip away. Instead of playing for a decent bowl bid, they’d be playing for a shot at the Big 12 North championship. It’ll be interesting to see what they can do this week against suddenly flat Mizzou.

25) UCF

One of the Golden Knights’ two losses was by four to K-State, the other came by a TD to a solid North Carolina State team. You might scoff at their schedule, but the two squads they just beat back-to-back – ECU and Houston – could beat a lot of BCS-conference teams. They have a good shot at running the table the rest of the way and finishing 11-2 as conference champs.

Pac-10 Thoughts

I suppose it’s fitting that the one year I pick Oregon State to continue their improbable late-season winning trend, the Beavers self-destruct. Every season I assumed that this was the year OSU couldn’t put it all together, and every time I was wrong. Well, it seems I was wrong again this year. The UCLA game revealed a startling truth: OSU is average. The defense is, for the first time in years, completely inept, and the Beavs’ offensive line has just been awful. They’ve only got two conference losses, so a nice bowl isn’t out of the picture, but something has to drastically change if this team is going to beat USC, Stanford or Oregon.

My Washington State prediction was a little more on-point this week, but Cal did just enough to continue the Cougars’ misery. WSU’s hopes of winning a Pac-10 game now appear to rest solely on the Apple Cup. For their sake, I hope they can get a win before the year ends. The team has clearly improved over the last couple of months and doesn’t deserve to go 0-9.

Cal, for their part, continued their horrible road play, squeaking out a seven-point win in Pullman. I know the Bears had just lost Kevin Riley and were playing away from home, but there’s still no excuse for it. The bizarre thing is that Cal’s home performances to date make picking this week’s Oregon game very confusing. Could they actually do the unthinkable and play fantastic to upset the Ducks? The Bears have been so different at home than on the road. Maybe it’s possible.

Stanford’s dominance over Arizona cemented their place as the best team with a loss. It would be an absolute outrage at this point if Stanford (and Oregon) won out and was denied a BCS berth. The Cardinal just shredded a team that beat a first-place Big 10 team (Iowa is technically half a game behind Michigan State, but the Spartans have played one more game and both teams have one loss). Stanford could roll up 40 points on almost anyone in the country.

Heisman Watch

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

After his performance against ‘Zona (and Washington, and WSU, and USC…) I’m moving Luck to number one. He has been flawless this year, completing more than 50% of his passes in every game but one (a 35-0 romp over UCLA) and directing the Stanford offense with the command of a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Luck is the nation’s best QB.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Luck is the best QB, but Newton has been the best player. I moved him down a week because inflating your numbers against an FCS foe doesn’t impress me. However, Newton’s stats appear to be the least of his worries. Provable or not, his alleged off-field actions have become too prominent to ignore. I’ve kept him on my list until we have more information, but if any of this stuff is true he should absolutely be blackballed by the Heisman voters.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Until this week, Moore hadn’t had the kind of “wow” game that got him a lot of attention. His 500 yards against Hawaii changed that in a hurry. The whole “Heisman for a career” debate is tired, so I won’t go into that. What’s obvious is that Moore is an outstanding QB, probably second in the nation behind Luck. To be more than a finalist, though, he’ll have to get the Broncos to the title game, which just got a lot harder.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

I’ve thought a lot about this, and it probably won’t make Oregon fans happy. But after reexamining James’ performance this season and what the Heisman is supposed to mean, I came to a conclusion: he is not the nation’s best player. He is the best player on the best team, which in the past has often won players the trophy. But he has not been – nor is he – the best player in the country. He should be a finalist, but unless he reels off some incredible games to end the season he should not be the winner.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Surprise, surprise. The MAC is actually playing some good football right now. The conference usually doesn’t have this much intrigue in November, but things have changed this year. Though the league boasts the FBS’ only winless team in Akron (way to go on that first win last week, New Mexico!), there’s a lot of quality at the top.

There’s a three-way scramble atop the East division, with Temple, Ohio and Miami (OH) all locked up with one loss. Guess who Temple plays the next two weeks? Ohio and Miami. In the West, conference unbeatens Northern Illinois and Toledo meet tonight to determine the division winner. It’s shaping up to actually be a pretty good end to the MAC season.

I’ve ragged on LSU’s Les Miles many times, for good reason. He is a poor play caller, questionable decision maker, and an absolutely inept clock manager. However, I am nothing if not fair, and therefore I have to give credit where it is due. Miles coached an excellent game against Alabama on Saturday, and was a big reason the Tigers upset the Tide. The reverse LSU ran on fourth-and-one was outstanding.

Just because Miles had a good game this week, however, does not mean that his previous, er, transgressions are forgiven. Some news accounts of the Alabama game seemed to imply that the game was proof that Miles actually does always know what he’s doing. That is idiotic. Making terrible decisions and getting lucky doesn’t prove that the decisions were good ones. There is no relationship between the two things, and one good game plan doesn’t absolve Miles of the multitude of bad ones he’s had in the past.

It’s unclear if anyone wants to win the ACC. With chances to pull away from the pack recently, Florida State and North Carolina State have lost. The Atlantic Division now features three teams with 6-3 overall records and two league losses (the Seminoles, Wolfpack and Maryland). In the Coastal Division, Virginia Tech looks like they should run away with the title, but they could still finish behind Miami (FL) and North Carolina, a pair of two-loss teams they haven’t yet played.

The level of perfect mediocrity in the conference is just absurd. What happened to the ACC? I mentioned last year that adding Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College was supposed to turn the ACC into a 12-team superconference like the SEC and Big 12. In short, it just didn’t happen. Adding some quality opponents abruptly ended FSU’s dominant rein, Miami fell apart shortly after joining, and Boston College has never quite lived up to expectations (two division titles notwithstanding). I think the ACC just got unlucky that so many of its teams went into the tank right at the wrong time. The one team that’s come out of this looking good is the Hokies, who have used the rubble of what was once a respected conference as a stepping stone to three of the first five Coastal Division titles and a pair of ACC championships.

Next week: things stay exactly the same (barring a major upset). I'm headed down to Berkeley this weekend to see Oregon and Cal, so the next update might take a while.