Remember, remember

National Overview

I thoroughly enjoyed this weekend’s games. My gut feelings about Missouri and Michigan State were vindicated and all the BCS busters stayed alive to set up a couple of great mid-major clashes. We’ve now come dangerously close to the computers’ terror scenario; if Oregon and Auburn don’t win out, Boise State or TCU/Utah will have a legitimate chance to make the title game.

Both the Tigers and Ducks face pretty easy teams until their late-season showdowns (Oregon with Arizona and Oregon State, Auburn with Alabama), so we’ll probably have to wait a couple weeks for any real drama at the top. If the Ducks or Tigers do drop a game to an inferior squad, however, things will be very interesting.

If Alabama wins out (including the SEC title), do they jump Boise/TCU/Utah? Should they? This is the kind of debate that causes college football fans to tear their hair out and ask for a playoff? ‘Bama’s schedule is significantly harder than any mid-major’s, though they lost a game. Does that outweigh the strength-of-schedule argument? If the Crimson Tide get in to the championship game with a loss, the cries of outrage on the smaller schools’ behalf will be enormous.

Top 25

No major shakeup at the top. In all honesty, I don’t think Utah deserves the six spot, but Alabama hasn’t been their usual juggernaut self of late and I can’t justify putting anyone else over the Utes. Wisconsin had trouble with some of the same mid-major squads Utah, Boise State and TCU are playing, so the Badgers aren’t the best fit either. There are, sadly, no Big East teams to be found; however, any person who has watched more than five minutes of Big East football this year would have to concur with my decision to exclude them. After they finished vomiting, of course.

1) Oregon

The USC win was excellent. The Ducks were poised under pressure and recovered from some bad breaks early in the second half to blow out the Trojans. I’m not sure why USC was talking so much before the game, especially considering the beatdown they received at Autzen last year. It came back to bite them.

2) Boise State

Did you know Hawaii is 7-2? The first quality opponent Boise has faced in a while will test what is presumed to be their biggest weakness: pass defense. This is actually a good measuring stick for the Broncos; if they win in another blowout, then they deserve to stay at number two. If not, there are more than enough reasons to move Auburn and TCU (if they win this week) up.

3) Auburn

It’s completely disgusting that Auburn is playing Chattanooga at this time of year, but it is what it is. Auburn should be on cruise control until the end of this month, so they won’t really have an opportunity to move up unless Boise State or TCU play poorly.

4) TCU

That Air Force win is looking pretty good now, eh? Considering how close the Falcons came to upsetting Utah, I can’t see any way the Horned Frogs lose this weekend. TCU beat that same Air Force squad by 31 (and held them to just seven). The defense is just unreal right now, and thanks to the computers, a win this week would put TCU in serious contention for the national title.

5) Stanford

Big, big game this week. Stanford hasn’t played with so much on the line for at least a decade. A victory against Arizona would keep the Cardinal’s Pac-10 and Rose Bowl dreams alive. At home, with a partially hobbled Nick Foles (or will it be Matt Scott?), I think Stanford takes it. Let’s just hope it’s half as fun as last year’s 43-38 shootout.

6) Utah

I fully expect (along with most of the country) the Utes to be brought back down to earth by TCU, but that doesn’t mean that they’re a bad team. Their schedule allowed them to feast on lesser teams this year until late in the season. However, I’d still take Utah over most teams in the top 25.

7) Alabama

Is Alabama really struggling? Or are the Tide just lurking out of sight, waiting for other teams to finish each other off? We know that the loser of TCU – Utah is out. That leaves Boise, Oregon and Auburn. A win over the Tigers, and all ‘Bama needs is a single upset to sneak back into the title game (and they might not even need BSU to lose).

8) Wisconsin

Wisconsin proved me wrong. The Badgers have improved from seasons past and become more balanced on offense. I still wouldn’t take their passing game unless I had to, but there’s enough of a threat now to keep the pressure of the traditional Bucky running attack. A 4-0 finish is likely.

9) Arizona

Well, here we go. Arizona is either going to go on a magical run to the Pac-10 title or go down in flames. With Stanford this week, USC the next, and Oregon looming the day after Thanksgiving (and don’t forget about pesky Arizona State), the Wildcats are in the ultimate show-me situation. Nick Foles’ return will be key. Can he come back strong enough to will this team to their first Rose Bowl?

10) Nebraska

The Texas loss looks more like an aberration than anything else. However, Nebraska is the most flawed team in the top 15. If their running game isn’t going, the Cornhuskers are very beatable. That said, look at the schedule. Who’s going to stop these guys? Texas A&M? Colorado? Sorry, no. One last Big 12 North title seems in order.

11) Iowa

All defense, no offense? Not anymore. The two best teams in the Big 10 are Wisconsin and Iowa, as seen by their epic 31-30 slugfest a couple weeks ago. I’ve started to like Iowa more as this season progresses, and I’m convinced there’s no receiving duo more underrated than Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt. Did you see McNutt’s catch against Michigan State?

12) Ohio State

The Buckeyes are leading the Big 10 in the standings but not in the eye test. They’ve beaten arguably the worst four teams in the conference, and they’ll likely lose at Iowa later this month. Still, with all the talent on Jim Tressel’s roster, you have to figure that he’ll make some kind of a run at the conference crown again.

13) Michigan State

OK, everyone saw that coming. MSU took a shot on the nose against Iowa and never recovered. What’s more important now is how the Spartans finish – there are three very winnable games left, and 11-1 would be outstanding considering the disadvantages this school has compared to the traditional Big 10 powers.

14) Arkansas

We’ll see what Arkansas has to offer after a pair of games against SEC patsies. South Carolina will be a good test for Bobby Petrino, too – if the Razorbacks have really made progress, they’ll win this game. For the SEC East’s sake, let’s hope they don’t.

15) Missouri

One, count it, one decent win. True, Mizzou could hang with a lot of teams, but they’re not as good as their 7-1 record indicates. They’ve still got a lot to play for, but a shot at the conference title is going to be hard to come by now that the Tigers have the loss to Nebraska. I’m betting on a second place finish in the final Big 12 North Division

16) Oklahoma

After Florida State lost this week, Oklahoma’s cred went out the window. The Sooners’ two best wins are Texas and FSU, and those teams have been exposed as complete frauds. What else is there to go on? 3-5 Cincinnati? 5-4 Air Force? Please. The season-ending showdowns with Baylor and Oklahoma State will say a lot more about this team than anything they’ve done to this point.

17) Virginia Tech

I got to cheat on this one because Tech played on a Thursday. Simply put, this is the worst team on a seven-game win streak that you could imagine. They’ve run roughshod through the mediocre ACC, but they’re far from great. Georgia Tech would have beaten the Hokies if the Yellow Jackets hadn’t lost quarterback Josh Nesbitt.

18) Oklahoma State

To be honest, I think these guys are a complete fraud as well. Baylor will test them this weekend. The problem is that Okie State’s offense is so good, it masks their deficiencies. Kind of like an inferior version of Oregon.

19) South Carolina

If the Gamecocks (and by extension, the SEC East) are any good at all, they’ll be able to get up for this big home game with Arkansas. A loss here would destroy any claims the league has at conference superiority; if four teams in one division are better than any in the other division, you’ve got problems.

20) Oregon State

The big near-shutout of Cal last week came with a caveat, as Bears QB Kevin Riley went down early in the contest. I’m not ready to proclaim the Beavers are back yet, but once they handle UCLA and Washington State it will probably be pretty evident what kind of team we’re dealing with.

21) USC

The Trojans led in the second half against Oregon. Only a handful of teams could do that. I was also somewhat impressed by Lane Kiffin’s coaching. This team is far from great, but in a one-game shot when they’re motivated they can beat almost anyone. Now that there are no more big games, though, you have to wonder how they’ll respond.

22) Mississippi State

Sure, why not. I mean, they beat… um… Florida? Mississippi State is getting the classic SEC treatment of being ranked for having a good record but playing no one. Their best achievement to date was losing to Auburn by three. The Bulldogs do get a week off before facing division rivals Alabama and Arkansas, so if they knock off one of those teams maybe I can really take them seriously.

23) Baylor

I really want to like Baylor. I love Robert Griffin III and the Bears are a great underdog to root for. But this story has played out many times in the past few years: “little team that could” rides spread offense and mobile QB to decent record and an upset or two, then collapses when the pressure is on. Come back to me when Baylor beats one of the Big 12 South heavyweights.

24) LSU

I dearly hope that this week’s Alabama game will erase any doubt about LSU’s legitimacy (or lack thereof). The Tigers are putrid on offense and not quite as good as predicted on defense, though that happens when a team can’t move the ball and forces it’s ‘D’ onto the field time and time again.

25) Nevada

Back in my rankings, if only for a short time. The nation believes Nevada is on borrowed time until they get blown out by Boise State. I tend to agree, though I hope we get at least one good inter-WAC game before the conference becomes irrelevant in the near future. The Wolf Pack’s offense can keep them in any game.

Pac-10 Thoughts

I was struck by how similar USC’s game with Oregon was to the Oregon-Stanford contest earlier in the year. Not only the score (only one point different for both teams), but also the tone of the game. It happened at different times, but in both games Oregon’s opponent got out to lead thanks to a short field set up by turnovers and special teams play. Both the Trojans and Cardinal had significant momentum. And in both cases, it came crashing down around them as Oregon ran them off the field. Oregon’s late-game will has been impressive, and is the biggest reason why the Ducks are undefeated.

As I said before, I’m tempted to think the usual late-season push for Oregon State has begun, but a declawed Cal team doesn’t actually provide enough evidence for it. The Beavers’ brutal final stretch – USC at home, at Stanford, Oregon at home – won’t give OSU any margin for error. If they want to prove that they are indeed a second-half team (in games and the season in general), they’ll have to close the year out strong.

My guess that WSU could possibly win last week against ASU turned out to be shamefully incorrect. That’s one of the worst predictions I’ve ever made. However, maybe THIS week is the one where the Cougars finally get it going. Cal has been terrible on the road, and they’re playing without their QB. Then again, maybe Kevin Riley was the problem all along…

I had another thought about Cal this week as I was pondering the end of Kevin Riley’s career. Cal’s offenses have been superb at running the ball ever since Jeff Tedford arrived as head coach, though their passing attacks have been inconsistent. How is it, exactly, that a “QB guru” like Tedford, who mentored Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and Aaron Rodgers, has yet to find any kind of above-average signal-caller in the past five years? And don’t give me Nate Longshore. Come on.

Instead of QB’s, Cal has produced elite running backs, one after another, for eight years. It’s actually bizarre, when you consider what Tedford is known for. He’s had one great QB during his tenure, yet has seen this list of RB’s: J.J. Arrington (ran for 2,000 yards in 2004), Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best, Shane Vereen. Wow. With all the production those backs had, Cal could have been fantastic… if only they had some kind of “QB guru” to coach up their QB’s.

Tedford’s career arc at Cal also got me thinking about the strange paths Oregon assistant coaches take after leaving the Ducks. Tedford had immediate success with the Bears, including a 10-2 record in his third season (2004), and it appeared Cal would be a Pac-10 contender for years. Instead, they’ve leveled off, and haven’t really gotten better in four years. This exactly mirrors what Dirk Koetter went through at Arizona State. Koetter posted two third-place Pac-10 finishes in his first four years, then dropped off and was fired in 2006.

That would be just an interesting coincidence if it wasn’t for the third case: Bob Toledo. Toledo was even better than Tedford and Koetter. In just his second season as head coach of UCLA in 1998, he won a share of the conference title. In 1998, UCLA was ranked first in the BCS at one point and almost made the national championship game. After that, it was all downhill. Toledo was fired in 2002, and UCLA hasn’t been a true Pac-10 contender in a decade.

All three men were offensive coordinators at Oregon, and interestingly enough, were all considered inventive and cutting-edge in their time. Just a little something to think about if you were wondering how Tedford’s time at Cal might end.

Heisman Watch

Same as last week. I can’t make wholesale changes without big shifts in on-field play (although the recent charges against Cam Newton are interesting and could influence this year’s vote).

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

A pedestrian running performance against Ole Miss, though he was solid passing. Nothing to see here, folks.

LaMichael James, RB, Oregon

James made up a little ground on Newton with his USC performance, but this is still a one-horse race.

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck can make a statement against Arizona that he’s the best QB in the country. If he does, he might shake this thing up a little.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

Efficiency, poise, leadership. Nothing has changed. If he were playing for a BCS team with better opponents, he’d be a shoo-in to win.

Random Thoughts and Observations

People (including me) rail against the BCS all the time. Sometimes, though, it's worthwhile to look at the traditional polls to remind yourself why the BCS was implemented in the first place. The computers were designed with the intent of removing all bias from the system (though they now reflect the biases of their creators instead). The Coaches' Poll is the most glaring example of these biases and demonstrates the value of a nonpartisan evaluator. Oklahoma and Missouri both have one loss. They played just two weeks ago. Yet even though Missouri won, they are ranked five spots below OU.

Common sense would say that Mizzou's loss to Nebraska makes Oklahoma look worse - after all, they lost to the Tigers in the first place. But the way the coaches see it, Oklahoma (ranked fourth at the time of their loss) should drop for losing, then automatically move back up when the teams ahead of them lose - even if one of those teams just beat them. Apparently, it no longer even matters who you lose to; it's just when you lose. Because the Sooners lost one week earlier than the Tigers, they are better, despite the head-to-head evidence to the contrary. OU is ranked ahead of Mizzou in the AP Poll, too, but at least the media voters have Stanford in the top 10.

Another irksome situation in both polls is the Michigan State ranking. Why, exactly, are the Spartans below Missouri? They were a) ranked higher before both teams lost, b) lost to at least an equal, and possibly superior, opponent than Missouri, and c) had a win over a single good team (Wisconsin) just like Missouri with Oklahoma. Do voters just hate Michigan State?

This is a simple perception issue that has always been the problem with the polls. Even though MSU was undefeated until last week, people generally saw the Spartans as a good team that was having a solid run and would eventually get exposed. That's more or less what happened. But didn't the exact same thing happen to Missouri? Yes, but fortunately for the Tigers, they've had better recent success than Sparty. Voters were more willing to believe in Missouri because they've been ranked highly in the past few seasons and had a shot at the title in 2007. That kind of thing should have zero bearing on this year's team, but because it's in back of people's minds they want to accept Missouri as a quality team and reject Michigan State. If you've watched both teams this year, you've gotten a completely different picture.

Oh, the poor, poor Big East. I don’t know how it’s gotten this bad, but it has. With West Virginia’s overtime loss to Connecticut (Connecticut! The team Michigan beat by two touchdowns!), it is clear that there is not a single top 25 team in the conference. Now you know why ESPN’s had a “Sportsnation” poll this week on whether a BCS conference champion should have to be ranked to play in their bowl. It’s a fair question, and the answer is “absolutely.” How can anyone say with a straight face that Pittsburgh – or West Virginia, or whoever wins this slop heap – ought to play in the Fiesta Bowl? (Note – the Fiesta Bowl gets the last choice this year, which is why the Big East champ is predicted to play there). It’s madness that a team that bad would get a BCS bowl invite over one of the many other deserving teams just because the Big East has an automatic “in.” Yuck.

Enjoy the weekend. ‘Til we meet again.