From sea to same shining sea

Pac-12 Preview

The Pac-12 is now unquestionably the nation’s second-deepest conference behind the SEC. That’s great timing for the Conference of Champions, which hopes to send at least one team to the inaugural College Football Playoff. Oregon and Stanford have become the standard-bearers for the West Coast, but traditional powers USC, UCLA and Washington can take this thing to a whole new level with a couple more years of quality play. The most helpful thing would be for someone to unseat the Ducks/Cardinal at the top of the mountain. It looks better when the same teams aren’t always winning. Still, I’m sure the Pac-12 would happily take a national championship from anyone at this point. It’s been a decade since USC’s now-vacated Orange Bowl romp over Oklahoma that secured the 2004 BCS title. This league needs some more hardware.

In customary fashion, I’ve mapped out the season for every team in the conference. After a distressing amount of research, I selected clear wins and losses in every team’s schedule to determine a floor and ceiling for the season.* The rest are left as “swing games,” which I define as any contest in which the outcome isn’t reasonably easy to predict. There are quite a lot of them this year. That tends to happen with a league this deep. Predicting the swing games is tough, but once it’s done you have an overall prediction for how the season will play out for every team. My results this year surprised me. I’ll reveal them at the end of this post, but first I’d like to give a detailed rundown on each squad.

*For the record, in 2013 every team in the conference finished within the range of wins I predicted.

North Division

California

Floor: 1-11

Ceiling: 4-8

Swing games: at Northwestern, Colorado, at Washington State

The Bears look to avoid a second straight year in the North cellar and consecutive winless seasons in conference play. I know times have been tough in Berkeley, but winless? Really? Even Colorado has more Pac-12 wins the past two years. There’s no excuse for Cal to be this bad. Sadly, the schedule will probably doom this team again. It won’t help at all to play BYU and Northwestern out-of-conference, and three of the four cross-divisional games (USC, UCLA and Arizona) are likely losses. Add in the fact that the Bears will be underdogs in all five of their North contests and a grim picture starts to develop.

It’s not as if there’s no talent on this team. Quarterback Jared Goff was promising during his freshman campaign and he has some nice receivers in Chris Harper and Bryce Treggs. Brennan Scarlett is a strong pass-rusher from the end spot and safeties Avery Sebastian (lost in last season’s opener) and Stefan McClure are good enough to make a difference in this spread-happy league. But overall Cal is thin at so many positions and lacks impact players at others. It seems likely the Bears will spend 2014 in much the same position they did last year – looking up at the rest of the standings.

Oregon

Floor: 7-5

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: Michigan State, at UCLA, Washington, Stanford, at Oregon State

Perhaps THIS is the year Oregon finally A) has all the pieces and B) avoids falling on its face late in the season. Some analysts are predicting a fall back to the pack, saying the Ducks’ run is over. I can’t share that view of this team. UO’s problems are ones most teams would love to have. An unproven receiving core? Oregon has actually recruited a handful of four-star WR’s the past few years. At some point one of them has to pan out. That terrible 2013 defense? It was actually better than the previous one in both points and yards allowed per game.

The real question is health. Can QB Marcus Mariota, who should go down as the best in school history, avoid injury? Can the talented O-line (already missing tackle Tyler Johnstone) still be one of the best in the country? Can the defense, particularly the secondary, keep its starters fresh down the stretch? There’s more than enough here to win a Pac-12 title and earn a playoff berth. The Ducks just have to prove they can finish a season.

Oregon State

Floor: 5-7

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: at USC, Utah, at Stanford, Washington State, Arizona State, at Washington, Oregon

The Beavers have a wide swing range. They could miss a bowl and it wouldn’t shock me at all. After all, this team is replacing a Biletnikoff winner in Brandin Cooks, a WR who OSU leaned on so heavily it was kind of humorous at times. The offensive line is still a major question mark and, oh yeah, OSU can’t run the ball at all. The defense is decidedly average, which bodes ill in this high-flying conference. When playing teams with superior athleticism, the Beavs tend to look overwhelmed.

And yet… I could also see this squad winning a lot of these games. QB Sean Mannion, despite his flaws, is a good player, and Mike Riley signal-callers often improve dramatically as upperclassmen. The dean of Pac-12 coaches does more with less than just about anyone in the country and has seen much worse defenses than this. Maybe the Beavers got a little lucky to get to nine wins in 2012, but I don’t think they're as bad as their six-game losing streak last season looks. OSU misses UCLA and plays four November home games.

Stanford

Floor: 5-7

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: USC, at Washington, at Notre Dame, at Arizona State, Oregon State, at Oregon, at UCLA

I’m done doubting Stanford. I’ve learned that lesson the hard way. However, even as the Cardinal have upset Oregon two years in a row and won the North (and conference), they’ve never looked particularly good doing it. Quick question: who had the better defense last season, Stanford or Oregon? Stanford, by far, right? Well, the Cardinal gave up 19.0 points per game in 2014. UO allowed 20.5. That’s hardly a vast difference. Stats like this speak to just how efficient Stanford has been the past few years. Did you know the Cardinal won the Pac-12 last year outgaining opponents by an average of 42 yards per game? 42! That’s less than one drive!

Now, all this seems to be pointing to a “beware underestimating the Cardinal” warning. I’m not. Stanford will be very good again, but there are some significant losses this time that actually will cause this team to drop off slightly. Losing four of five starters on the O-line hurts, regardless of how many blue-chip recruits this program has signed. LB’s Trent Murphy and Shane Skov, DE’s Ben Gardner and Henry Anderson and S Ed Reynolds were all some of the best to ever play here and will be missed as well. Despite a roster rich with talent, I have to think this is the year Stanford regresses a little.

Washington

Floor: 6-6

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: Stanford, at Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, at Arizona, Oregon State

UW graded out very highly in my season predictions, as you’ll soon see. Unfortunately, that still didn’t include a breakthrough to the top two of the division. The good news for now, though: the Huskies return seven starters on each side to a team that won nine games; QB Cyler Miles may eventually end up as an upgrade to the departed Keith Price; new head man Chris Petersen is absolutely an upgrade over Steve Sarkisian, and the O-line could be the best in the conference. The schedule also includes a 13^th game/gimme win over Hawai’i.

Now, the bad news: UW plays in a very competitive division. I still think Oregon and Stanford are better and the Huskies also get UCLA from the South. Petersen is unquestionably the more proven coach, but there’s always a little wonkiness as a team switches staffs. Ultimately, having roughly a repeat of 2013’s 9-3 campaign – with a little extra Hawai’i flavor thrown in – should be viewed as a success. Petersen is going to make this team great, though.

Washington State

Floor: 3-9

Ceiling: 8-4

Swing games: at Utah, Cal, Arizona, USC, at Oregon State

The Cougars are in a difficult position. They’ve clearly improved, as seen by their strong showings last year against Auburn, USC and Arizona and subsequent bowl bid, the program’s first in 13 years. However, even more so than rival Washington, WSU is feeling the pressure to perform in a division that is continuously improving. Wazzu could be as good or better this year – QB Connor Halliday and virtually all the receivers return from a passing attack that put up nearly 5,000 yards, while the D should be somewhat improved – but might not win as many games.

There are simply too many better teams in this conference to expect great things out of the Cougs. WSU is the clear number five team in its division and plays Arizona, Arizona State, USC and Utah from the South. There’s not a guaranteed win anywhere in there. While it would be surprising to see this squad drop them all, I don’t like the odds of returning to the postseason. The Cougs defied my predictions last year by getting to six wins. I hope they can do so again.

South Division

Arizona

Floor: 5-7

Ceiling: 11-1

Swing games: USC, at Washington State, at UCLA, Washington, at Utah, Arizona State

Arizona has been getting some buzz of late as a sleeper in the South. Even though the Wildcats will miss RB Ka’Deem Carey, I understand the hype. Four starting offensive linemen return along with a talented receiving corps. The defense won’t be incredible but should be able to get the job done for the most part. ‘Zona also played the L.A. teams very tough last year, losing to USC by a touchdown and UCLA by five. This squad knows how get up for good opponents.

I don’t foresee a division title. Too much would have to go right and the Wildcats do draw Oregon and Washington from the North (they also travel to Wazzu in a scary trap game the week before facing UCLA). But head coach Rich Rodriguez has proved the doubters wrong with back-to-back eight-win seasons. It’s completely within reason to expect he can do so again. Arizona falls into the “not quite a contender, but dangerous” category.

Arizona State

Floor: 5-7

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: UCLA, at, USC, Stanford, at Washington, Notre Dame, at Oregon State, at Arizona

I had thought ASU, defending South Division champions, would be in for another solid year in 2014. After all, the Sun Devils (still one of the best mascots in the country) return perhaps the conference’s second-best QB in Taylor Kelly (more on that later), leading WR Jaelen Strong and dual-purpose RB D.J. Foster. ASU struggled against Stanford in two games last year –nothing to be ashamed of – and blew pretty much everyone else out of the water.

Then I looked closer. This team has to replace nine defensive starters, six of whom earned some kind of all-conference honor. That list is headed by two-time Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Will Sutton, who was a monster at DT. Now nearly all those guys must be replaced. I find it difficult to believe the Sun Devils can pull it off. Additionally, the skill position losses are worse than it seems at first glance. Foster is terrific, but there’s a reason the departed Marion Grice started at RB over him, and aside from Strong ASU has lost of lot of receiving experience. Another 10-win season seems unlikely.

Colorado

Floor: 2-10

Ceiling: 5-7

Swing games: Colorado State (Denver), at Cal, Utah

One day. I believe one day Colorado will not be the worst team in the South. It has to happen one day, given the history, resources, location and pride of this program. But it is not this day. The Buffaloes made great strides last season, upping their win total from one to four and increasing their scoring average by more than a TD per game. The next step is to make it back to a bowl, but that’s still too much to ask from this team in the second year of the Mike MacIntyre era. Even by going 3-0 in nonleague play and beating the Pac-12 bottom-feeders, the Buffs would still need to pull off a major upset to get to six wins.

Still, there are positive signs. Sefo Liufau took over at QB midway through the season and showed off some potential. The loss of WR Paul Richardson hurts, but Nelson Spruce is a capable big-play guy in his own right. Three starters return to both the D-line and secondary, though the defense’s best player is probably LB Addison Gillam. There isn’t enough to seriously challenge for a postseason berth, but this team is on the way up.

UCLA

Floor: 6-6

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: at Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona, at Washington, USC, Stanford

I’ve held my tongue on UCLA to this point, but it’s time to be honest: I’m not buying it. I feel so, so many similarities between the hype this team is getting and the way people talked up USC in the 2012 preseason. All we heard that summer was how talented the Trojans were and how USC would win the national championship. The Trojans started the season ranked first. They ended it 7-6 and unranked. Now, UCLA will not lose six games. This team is talented enough to avoid that kind of meltdown and is coached by Jim Mora instead of Lane Kiffin. However, there are a lot of parallels that do work, starting with the QB’s. Brett Hundley has not yet proved he is the elite passer the media is claiming. The RB situation is less than impressive. The WR’s are decent, but certainly less talented than USC’s.

Defensively, yes, the secondary is fantastic. The front seven is overrated. For as great as the Bruins supposedly were in 2013, they gave up nearly 400 yards a game. Now they have to replace LB’s Anthony Barr and Jordan Zumwalt and they’re going to be better, elite possibly? Myles Jack is an amazing LB/RB/possible demigod, but he’s just one guy. I don’t think UCLA can beat Oregon twice – which they will need to do to win the conference – and make the playoff. Competing for the Pac-12 title is the highest this team can rise.

USC

Floor: 5-7

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: at Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, at Arizona, at Washington State, at UCLA, Notre Dame

I was stunned when I finished my swing game predictions and had USC winning 10 games. With all the hype UCLA has gotten, it’s been easy to forget about the Bruins. For some reason I think the Trojans have noticed this. Despite losing a couple of talented defensive starters in LB Devon Kennard and S Dion Bailey, USC has a chance to be really, really good. If the team can stay healthier, it’s even possible it can top last season’s record. And this team won 10 games last year!

I expect WR Nelson Agholor and RB Javorius Allen to go off, helping the offense improve while the defense slips a little. Despite the five league road games, the schedule is favorable at times: after playing in Pullman on November 1, the Trojans don’t leave L.A. again. The biggest question I have is whether new head coach Steve Sarkisian can make this team better in any way. He didn’t really prove he could in Seattle. Time will tell if he’s better suited for the Hollywood scene.

Utah

Floor: 1-11

Ceiling: 7-5

Swing games: Fresno State, at Michigan, Washington State, at Oregon State, Arizona, at Colorado

Utah is in a peculiar position entering 2014. The Utes have been as average as a team can possibly be since joining the Pac-12 three seasons ago (18-19 overall). There’s been NFL talent in Salt Lake City, just not quite enough of it. The Utes have also struggled with injuries, especially at QB. Yet when it comes down to it, the bottom line is that Utah hasn’t been able to measure up to the competition in a major conference. The grass isn’t always greener.

The Utes have talented – if erratic – QB Travis Wilson back and an elite WR in Dres Anderson. The O-line, as usual, is pretty good. The same is true for the defensive front. There aren’t any true “panic” spots on this team. It just doesn’t feel as if Utah is ready to make some great leap. Playing non-conference games against Fresno State and Michigan doesn’t help, nor does the fact that the Pac-12 slate again features Oregon and Stanford. It seems almost a certainty that this squad will struggle to reach a bowl.

The results of my preseason prediction exercise are below. Some of the swing contests were extremely difficult to figure out and it’s important to remember that teams are rarely as great or terrible as they appear. It’s more likely the bottom of the conference will feature three- and four-win teams than one- or two-win teams. It’s simply too hard to predict where those bad teams will pull that one upset. Still, here are my predictions for the 2014 Pac-12 standings.

North

Oregon: 12-0 overall, 9-0 Pac-12

Stanford: 8-4, 6-3

Washington: 10-3, 6-3

Oregon State: 7-5, 4-5

Washington State: 5-7, 2-7

California: 2-10, 1-8

South

UCLA: 11-1, 8-1

USC: 10-2, 7-2

Arizona: 8-4, 5-4

Arizona State: 6-6, 4-5

Utah: 3-9, 2-7

Colorado: 3-9, 0-9

Pac-12 Championship game: Oregon over UCLA

The season starts in less than 24 hours.

The 2014 conference preview-ganza

Yesterday I gave my picks for the most likely playoff entrants. Today, it's the conference races. Realignment may have settled down the fast-and-loose way college football played with history and tradition (and my heart), but that doesn't mean there isn't a whole lot of intrigue in several leagues. Time will tell, but it's possible the playoff era just might increase the amount of suspense the sport sees. 

Conference Outlook

AAC

Projected Champion: UCF

Even as conference realignment winds down the former Big East remains in flux. That seems fitting given the pivotal role the American played in moving us to the superconference era. This year sees Louisville join 2013 emigrants Pittsburgh and Syracuse in the ACC while Rutgers bolts for the greener pastures of the Big Ten. In their place come East Carolina, Tulsa and Tulane, essentially completing the AAC’s conversion into the new Conference USA. In all, the American now boasts (?) nine former C-USA members and only two founding Big East schools (Connecticut, Temple) – one of which (Temple) was kicked out in 2005 for football incompetence before the league lowered its already-low standards. 

Of course, reigning champion Central Florida returns, fresh off an impressive runaway Fiesta Bowl win over Big 12 champion Baylor. Talented enigma Cincinnati can build off a nine-win 2013 campaign in the second year of the Tommy Tuberville regime. Houston, which nearly stole the AAC title in the Cougars’ first (and only) season as a BCS school, has all the pieces available to do so again, while ECU has some serious dark horse potential after jumping from C-USA. Looking to the future, perennially decent Navy will join the league in 2015, boosting the AAC to 12 members and allowing for conference championship game.

However, that’s where the good news seems to end. The middle and bottom thirds of the conference are as awful as usual, featuring just one team (ECU) that won a bowl in 2013. Six of the eleven current AAC members finished with sub-.500 records, and while UCF got that crucial Fiesta Bowl win, the conference has officially been relegated to non-AQ status. That matters less now that the BCS is finally dead, but the fact remains that the American’s reputation has been in shambles for years. That’s a problem considering that the playoff teams will be selected by a committee.

UCF has the inside track to repeat despite losing stars at both quarterback and running back in Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson, respectively. Nine defensive starters return for the Knights, including all four starters from a secondary that allowed a mere 53 percent completion rate in 2013. The schedule is a bit of an issue, as Central must travel to contenders Houston and ECU (both on Thursday). However, the Knights do miss Cincinnati and have what is almost certainly the most talented roster in the conference.

Cincinnati is a legit contender thanks to the addition of former top QB recruit Gunner Kiel and a favorable in-conference schedule that has the Bearcats missing favorite UCF and hosting ECU and Houston. The nonleague slate is nasty, though, featuring rival Miami (OH) and MAC power Toledo as well as road trips to Ohio State and Miami (FL), all in a span of five weeks. It’s possible Cincy could be worn out before conference play even begins.

With 17 returning starters, Houston is in excellent shape to challenge for the AAC crown. The Cougars were better than their 8-4 regular-season record last year – all four losses came by a touchdown or less, and Houston held the lead in the second half in three of those contests. The schedule is nice too; after a tricky early trip to BYU, the Cougars should be favored in every game until the finale at Cincinnati.

I like ECU a lot as a sleeper in the American. Shane Carden is as solid a QB as you’ll find in the country and this team won 10 games a year ago. ECU’s willingness to play the big boys (a 55-31 win over North Carolina last year) is also admirable. Ultimately the step up in competition will probably prove to be a little much for the Pirates, but they should be a factor in the conference race.

ACC

Projected Champion: Florida State over Virginia Tech

Unfortunately, there’s just not that much to say about the ACC. Florida State is the overwhelming favorite, for good reason. The closest conference game the Seminoles played in 2013 was a 14-point win at Boston College. This team steamrolled the entire league and saved its best for the biggest stages: a combined 200-35 margin against its four ranked ACC opponents. The ‘Noles also play in the weaker division of the conference (the Atlantic, for the record. No one can remember which teams go where in the ACC). It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see FSU beat every team on the schedule again by double digits.

The conference bids farewell to longtime member Maryland this year, who eschewed decades of tradition and rivalries for the greener pastures of the Big Ten. Louisville will replace the ingrate Terrapins, about one year after it would have been pertinent to do so. I doubt the Cardinals will fall off the map entirely, as the ACC isn’t really that strong, but it will be difficult adjusting to an entire schedule full of new opponents. Louisville is also in the Atlantic, so while there’s a guaranteed loss to FSU the road overall is slightly easier.

But what of the enigmatic Coastal Division? It’s possible to envision as many as five teams earning the right to get pummeled by the Seminoles. I don’t think Georgia Tech (sigh) or Virginia have a real shot. Everybody else has a case. Virginia Tech can’t be underwhelming for the third year in a row, right? Miami (FL) looked great last year before RB Duke Johnson’s injury. Duke (yes, Duke!) actually won the division, while North Carolina finished 6-1 down the stretch and Pittsburgh returns eight offensive starters. Picking a winner is rough.

I’ll eliminate Pitt first, as I feel the loss of first-round draft pick DT Aaron Donald will be hard to disguise. Breaking in a new QB won’t be easy either. Duke was a great feel-good story, but I find it unlikely that the Blue Devils will repeat. They won too many close games and had so much go right. Even with a lot of returning starters, Duke will fail to win the division again.

North Carolina looked great in the second half of the season after a disastrous start. Marquise Williams appears to be the answer at QB for this team, but overall there needs to be more production from the rushing game. The Tar Heels have been merely decent on both sides of the ball in recent years. To take the next step one of the units has to improve.

Virginia Tech needs a bounce-back year and 2014 could provide ample opportunity for that to happen. A very intriguing opportunity has arisen in Week Two, as the Hokies travel to Colombus to face an Ohio State squad sans QB Braxton Miller. With a win, VT could easily jump out to a 5-0 start, a mark the Hokies haven’t reached since 2005. There’s some great potential there.

Miami was on track to win the division last year before losing Johnson against FSU. There’s a decent amount of guys back on both sides of the ball, but a new (true freshman) QB is dicey. The Hurricanes play at Virginia Tech and also have the misfortune of drawing Florida State from the Atlantic (UNC gets Clemson, VT plays neither). Advantage, Hokies.

Big Ten

Projected Champion: Michigan State over Wisconsin

The Big Ten has changed. Long gone are the days when Michigan ruled the roost, when passing the ball was sacrilegious, when the number 10 actually meant something. The kings of the Midwest now number a monstrous 14 and cover territory ranging from Lincoln, Nebraska in the west and Piscataway, New Jersey in the East. It’s completely obvious why the conference wanted Maryland and Rutgers – it certainly wasn’t for their on-field performance – but I do miss the days when we at least pretended expansion was about improving quality of play and the “student-athletes.”

The Big Ten, desperate for an “eastern bloc” to increase its TV footprint, snagged the Terrapins and Scarlet Knights to match with original Big Ten intruder Penn State in a blatant money grab. It was a sad yet shrewd decision. The addition of two more schools allowed the league to not only expand its market share but also realign its divisions, forever ridding us of the absurdly pompous “Leaders” and “Legends” in favor of a much simpler geographic format. I’m fairly certain the Big Ten will deny the divisions were ever named anything other than “East” and West” and has attempted to destroy any evidence to the contrary.

Michigan St is now the only reasonable choice to win the East, with Ohio State seemingly down for the count after losing Miller, Michigan still in rebuilding mode and Penn State dealing with sanctions. The Spartans are a fine pick to represent the conference, but it definitely hurts to cut out the only other truly elite team in the league. Despite the loss of several quality players from 2013’s transcendent defense, MSU returns All-American defensive end Shilique Calhoun and should still be formidable.

As with the ACC, the true intrigue lies in the “other” division, in this case meaning the West. It’s a two-team race masquerading as a three-team race, which I can explain momentarily. Wisconsin is and should be the favorite; the Badgers boast arguably the Big Ten’s best player in RB Melvin Gordon and have an outstanding offensive line that will make him a Heisman front-runner. The defense isn’t that great, but that’s fine. The offenses in this league aren’t that great either. Wisconsin has the ability to get to and win the conference championship.

Iowa is the Badgers’ biggest threat, which seems odd considering the Hawkeyes haven’t won more than eight games in four years. However, the schedule is very weak – I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team start 8-0 – and Iowa was a deceptively good 8-5 last season (all five losses to teams with at least nine wins). The Hawkeyes host Wisconsin and Nebraska in the final two weeks.

Nebraska is the third team I referenced earlier. The Cornhuskers return their top five tacklers and have some nice offensive pieces in RB Ameer Abdullah and WR Kenny Bell. However, the O-line is a major question mark, NU draws Michigan State and must play at Iowa and Wisconsin. Also, this team has lost exactly four games every year since Bo Pelini took over as head coach. That won’t get it done. In the end, I like Wisconsin to take the West.

Big 12

Projected Champion: Oklahoma

The Sooners are the consensus pick to win the conference, which isn’t surprising. Until Charlie Strong can fix things up at Texas, OU has a significant talent edge on the rest of its brethren. That doesn’t mean Oklahoma State or even the Longhorns haven’t recruited well, but neither of those programs can boast the floor the Sooners seem to have: twice in the past decade, OU has bottomed out… at eight wins. Baylor and Kansas State have each won a Big 12 title in the past two seasons, but let’s be real. No matter how many banners those schools accrue, nobody will ever have them as favorites over a team like Oklahoma.

The nice thing about the Big 12 is overall depth. OU may be the favorite, but all of the aforementioned teams have a shot at the conference crown as well. Defending champ Baylor is probably the best bet from the rest of the field. Texas is a bit of a mystery in the first year post-Mack Brown. OSU has won 10 games in three of the past four seasons. K-State just seems to keep on defying the odds and prognosticators. Even Texas Tech, losers of five straight after a 7-0 start, could have something to say about this race.

The main reason I like OU over Baylor is straight talent. The second is circumstance. BU had pretty much everything go right in a dream season in 2013. The offense outgained opponents by more than 250 yards per game and the defense forced a positive margin of one full turnover per contest. Baylor was incredible at home, upping those averages to plus-389(!) and plus-1.5, respectively. Well, that’s a lot easier to do when playing eight home games. This year, the Bears get only six. By the way, those numbers from 2013 dropped to plus-50 and plus-0.25 on the road. A decline is likely.

Texas is difficult to predict thanks to the regime change. Some people in Austin have already declared Strong a “transitional” coach, showing that there’s resistance to the idea of a “culture change” around the program. I’ve always thought Strong was pretty good, but we’ll see this season. It’s not as if the cupboard is exactly bare – this is Texas, for goodness’ sake. Even with the jettisoning of malcontents, a lot of starters return for a team that finished tied for second in the conference last year. UT will be just fine and might even contend for a Big 12 title.

Kansas State is one of the lesser contenders along with Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Wildcats should be better than they were in 2013’s rebuilding effort. The question is, how much better? Jake Waters now has a full season of QB experience and an All-American WR in Tyler Lockett. The defense loses a lot, but KSU always bolsters its immediate needs with JUCO players. If there’s one thing head coach Bill Snyder knows how to do, it’s rebuild on the fly. K-State shouldn’t win the Big 12 but will probably upset someone along the way.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are in a similar position heading into 2014. Both are known for offense in lieu of defense (although OSU did lead the league in points allowed during conference play last season). Both are too talented to overlook. And both are simply not quite good enough to envision winning the Big 12. For the Cowboys it’s about proven depth, as just eight starters return from 2013’s 10-win squad. The Red Raiders have to prove they can break through the eight-win ceiling, something that hasn’t been done in Lubbock since Mike Leach was in town.

Conference USA

Projected Champion: Marshall over UTSA

What is it with these conferences with one easy-to-figure division and another impossible one? Marshall is the runaway favorite for a reason; not only are the Thundering Herd easily the best team in the C-USA, they play in the weaker side (East) of this 13-team monstrosity and get to host the only two teams predicted to give them a real challenge (Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic). But the West is a complete muddle. Texas-San Antonio could be the favorite, or it could be North Texas… or Rice (which actually won the conference last season).

Let’s start with realignment. The C-USA probably saw more conference-shifting insanity than any other league in the past decade. Ever wonder where the Big East/AAC kept getting all those new teams? Almost universally, they came from here. Louisville, Cincinnati, Houston, ECU, Central and South Florida, Tulsa, Tulane… that’s just some of the schools that have left the C-USA since 2004. Last year the league added six new members to replace four outgoing ones. This year it loses three more (ECU, Tulane and Tulsa. Curse you, AAC! Curse you!) but adds Western Kentucky and transitioning FCS team Old Dominion. Fellow FCS school North Carolina-Charlotte will join in 2015, bringing the C-USA to a round 14 schools.

This looks bad. The conference is undoubtedly weaker than it was few years back. But that’s what makes the title race so intriguing. Who knows what will happen? At the very least, we should know about Marshall. QB Rakeem Cato is back to break the Herd’s all-time passing records (an impressive feat considering who else has played here). He gets back dominant WR Tommy Shuler for an offense that should top 40 ppg for the thirds consecutive year. The defense, comparatively, might be even better. Eight starters return, including all the LB’s, three-quarters of the secondary and all-conference DT James Rouse. The schedule is paper-soft. This team is going to roll.

Rice won the West and then upset Marshall in the title game last year, so it seems appropriate to start there. The Owls probably won’t drop as far as people might think, despite losing both QB Taylor McHargue and RB Charles Ross. McHargue was the heart and soul of the offense, but he wasn’t terribly efficient as a passer. There’s enough returning on defense for the Owls to lean on that unit more until the offense finds its way.

North Texas was the only team that beat Rice in C-USA play last year and probably should have won the West. The nine-win campaign was the best since the program’s early-2000’s heyday, when the likes of Patrick Cobbs and Jamario Thomas were churning through the Sun Belt. Unfortunately, the Mean Green won’t repeat last year’s performance. There are personnel losses all over both sides of the ball, so even though a huge drop-off is unlikely UNT’s lack of experience will hurt.

UTSA is the safe choice to face Marshall, which is funny considering the Roadrunners lost their best offensive player (QB Eric Soza) and best defensive player (LB Steven Kurfehs). However, that’s it. UTSA otherwise returns an astounding 20 starters, 10 on each side, to a team that played well in its debut FBS season in 2013. The Roadrunners will be better than 7-5 this year.

MAC

Projected Champion: Bowling Green over Northern Illinois

Last summer, in probably my all-time greatest prediction, I said BGSU would upset heavy favorite NIU in the MAC Championship. I won’t try to repeat the magic this year. I’m going with the champs to repeat rather than reaching for some outlandish outcome in Detroit. The MAC race remains one of the best in football every year and 2014 should be no different. Maybe it’s the league’s adherence to a 13-team structure*, maybe it’s the title game’s penchant for pure insanity, maybe it’s just something in the water in that region, but the MAC is truly entertaining.

*Massachusetts will leave the MAC in two years.

Northern Illinois is still a fine choice out of the West. The Huskies return nine starters on offense and should be about as good defensively despite losing a few key guys. The big issue is QB, where Jordan Lynch departs after rushing for more than 4,000 yards in his career. Say what you will about Lynch – and I did, the dude couldn’t pass at all – but he was definitely an inspirational, put-the-team-on-my-back type. NIU will miss him.

Toledo would have a great shot at taking the division from the Huskies on an even playing field. Alas, it is not. Thanks to the awkwardness of cross-divisional scheduling, the Rockets must face Bowling Green in the regular season for the second straight year while NIU misses the Falcons. Toledo also has to play NIU on the road this season, just one week before BGSU. I otherwise really like this team, but that one-two punch seems too difficult to withstand.

Bowling Green has a fairly difficult schedule (Toledo and Ball State from the West and at Wisconsin) and the loss of six defensive starters is daunting. However, the Falcons should still be decent defensively and the return of a quality QB in Matt Johnson should help considerably. Despite some misgivings about the coaching change and follow-up to such a magical 2013 season, I still favor BGSU in the East.

Ohio is the biggest challenge to Bowling Green’s divisional supremacy despite massive losses on offense. QB Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship are gone and will be sorely missed. The defense, though, is talented, and the offensive line might be good enough to buoy the unknowns on that side. I’m not calling for the Bobcats to win the East, but they could conceivably do so if things broke right.

Other, more longshot choices include Ball State from the West and Akron from the East. Ball State did win 10 games last year and returns RB Jahwan Edwards, but losing the top QB in program history (Keith Wenning) has to hurt a little. Akron is a trendy pick for some reason, but I find it hard to believe a team that won five games in 2013 will be able to rebound all the way to a conference title.

Mountain West

Projected Champion: Boise State over Fresno State

This hurts. I desperately want to see my boy Chuckie Keeton go out on top at Utah State. It could happen; when healthy, Utah State’s QB is the best player in the MWC, one with the rare ability to swing a conference race largely on his own. But it’s impossible to know exactly how recovered he is from that nasty ACL/MCL tear last year. As such, I have to go with the more likely candidates. Boise State is due for a rebound after a frustrating 8-5 campaign, while Fresno State returns more than you might think from 2013’s 11-win squad.

I’ll admit to assuming certain things about Boise State. That the halcyon days were over. That the departure of head coach Chris Petersen meant the end of the Broncos’ incredible run. That Boise was facing a talent drain for the first time in nearly a decade. Well… take a look at the roster. There’s quite a lot left. Eight starters, including the entire back seven, return to the defense, which will be much-improved. Seven are back on offense, including QB Grant Hedrick, who will be a step up from the departed Joe Southwick. If RB Jay Ajayi (he of the 18 TD’s in 2013) can hold on to the ball, watch out. This should be the best team in the conference.

Utah State is the other heavyweight in the Mountain Division, but the Aggies face an uphill battle to get back to the title game. The outstanding defenses of the past two seasons have largely been gutted, with only the LB unit a sure standout this fall. Offensively USU returns two backfield players lost to knee injuries – Keeton and RB Joe Hill – and is probably in decent shape, though the line is dangerously inexperienced. There’s still potential for greatness, it’s just that I’m afraid of pinning my hopes on Keeton’s repaired ligaments.

It’s scary to expect so much from a team losing so many stars, but Fresno State might still have what it takes to repeat as West (and conference) champs. Leaning on defense this year instead of offense, the Bulldogs bring back eight starters from a group that ranked third in the league in 2013. I don’t expect any Alabama-esque performaces, but the D won’t be awful. It will be tough to replace legends like QB Derek Carr and WR Davante Adams, true. However, there are two solid signal-calling options in Brian Burrell and Duke transfer Brandon Connette, so if the defense can take on a little more responsibility Fresno could run this thing back.

The only real competition for the Bulldogs in the West is San Diego State. Overall, I like the Aztecs’ roster, but the glaring issue is a lack of stars. I don’t see any. QB Quinn Kaehler is decent. WR Ezell Ruffin is decent. The defense? Decent. The one exception is on the defensive front, where ends Sam Meredith and Dontrell Onuoha could combine with USC transfer DT Christian Heyward to create a fierce D-line. Unfortunately, I’m not sure how good the back eight (SDSU plays a three-man front) are. This team might be above average at everything and great at nothing.

Pac-12

Projected Champion: Coming tomorrow

SEC

Projected Champion: Alabama over South Carolina

This is the most difficult conference race to predict in the country. There are so many good teams and none that jump out as a clear favorite. Even Alabama faces questions after graduating all-time leading passer A.J. McCarron. In fact, a year after rolling out arguably the greatest QB crop the SEC has ever seen, nine teams will start new signal-callers this season. Defense is still the top objective around here, but it helps to have a guy behind center who won’t fall on his face (or have it crushed into the turf by a future NFL linebacker). In the West: ‘Bama, LSU, Auburn and Ole Miss. In the East: South Carolina and Georgia, and possibly Florida. That’s half the conference that could conceivably win it all. Let’s go to the slightly less confusing division first.

I name Florida as a “maybe” because no one knows exactly what we’ll get out of the Gators this year. UF overachieved getting to 11-2 in 2012 but wasn’t as awful as the 4-8 finish in 2013 suggests. Injuries and a complete inability to move the ball turned a talented, somewhat raw squad into a disaster area. The Gators will be back in some capacity this season (maybe THIS is the year QB Jeff Driskel finally figures it out), but that could mean anywhere from seven to ten wins. The schedule is rough, as UF draws ‘Bama and LSU out of the West, so I’d go lower on that scale.

Georgia has everything in place for a karmic rebound after last season’s injury-riddled nightmare… except the best passer in program history. As good as RB’s Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall are – and they’re REALLY, really good – it’s tough for me to pick this team to win the East with an unproven QB. Hutson Mason looked decent in relief last year, but forgive me for not getting overly excited about wins over Kentucky and Georgia Tech. I just don’t think SEC defenses will allow the Bulldogs to ride the “Gurshall” duo with impunity.

In contrast, I’m a big fan of Dylan Thompson, the senior QB from South Carolina who has seen a fair amount of action the past couple years due to injuries ahead of him. Thompson needs to rein in his somewhat reckless playing style at times, but he’s got a couple of talented receivers to throw to in Shaq Roland and Damiere Byrd and a bruising RB in Mike Davis. The defense should be at least adequate again and the Gamecocks get to host Georgia in a major revenge game in Week Three. SC was the best team in the East last year and has the best chance to win the division.

Alabama loses six defensive starters and arguably its best QB ever, and the Crimson Tide are still the pick? I have to. I am physically unable to go against the power of head coach Nick Saban. Does anyone think ‘Bama won’t simply reload on defense? The Tide haven’t allowed more than 300 yards per game in any season since 2007, Saban’s first. Want an even more ridiculous stat? In every one of the past seven years, this team’s yards per carry has increased. Even with RB T.J. Yeldon back, that feat will be tough to accomplish again, but if anyone can do it I’m sure it will be the Tide. As I said yesterday, the QB might not even matter.

I think LSU is the next-best team in the West, though some of my optimism is based off reports of frosh RB Leonard Fournette’s apparent supernatural ability. Now, the Tigers will also be starting a new QB as well, but I feel better about their O-line than, say, Georgia’s. The defense, like Alabama’s, has to replace some guys, but will surely be fine. This is LSU, after all. The schedule isn’t too bad – at Auburn and Florida in consecutive weeks to start October is rough, but the Tigers manhandled both those teams last season – and Fournette might be MJ.

Auburn looks loaded offensively and should be more balanced, provided QB Nick Marshall continues to grow and the team can adjust to life after RB Tre Mason. However, I’m not convinced the defense, which gave up more than 450 ypg in 2013, is for real. The Tigers also play one less home game and must travel to Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama – three teams that all feel Auburn got lucky last year. It’s very possible this squad could be better in 2014 and finish with a worse record simply by virtue of breaks going the other way.

Ole Miss is the true wild card here, which is why the Rebels have gotten special billing. For two years the nation has marveled at head coach Hugh Freeze’s recruiting classes and whispered, “Those guys are going to be good soon.” Well, the time is now. Not only has the program been built up to a near-elite level, other conditions have never been more favorable: the offense is one of the few in the SEC to return a proven commodity at QB in Bo Wallace; the defense gets nine starters back, and the schedule is very kind. The Rebs miss the top four East teams and host Alabama and Auburn. …And yet I still think ‘Bama is the smart pick from the West.

Sun Belt

Projected Champion: Louisiana-Lafayette*

*Louisiana-Lafayette apparently wants to be known as just “Louisiana” now, but that’s confusing given that Louisiana-Monroe also plays in this conference, so I’m sticking with the traditional “ULL” and “ULM” monikers for now.

I’ll be honest: The Sun Belt is the conference I know the least about. It’s the worst league in the country and the number one offender when it comes to allowing marginal FCS schools a foot in the FBS door. But so be it. One thing I do know is Broadway. As in Terrance Broadway, Louisiana’s talented duel-threat QB. Broadway was the best player in the SBC last year, when he led the Ragin’ Cajuns to their third consecutive nine-win season. Broadway is back, and so is ULL. With eight returning starters to the league’s best offense and nine to its second-stingiest D, it’s safe to call the Cajuns the favorite and a strong contender for a fourth straight bowl appearance… which would also be the program’s fourth ever. Here’s head coach Mark Hudspeth’s reaction upon seeing his guys in fall camp. This team is so hot right now.

The rest of the SBC can pretty easily be broken up into three categories. The first is also-rans, consisting of nomads Idaho and New Mexico State, FBS newcomers Appalachian State and Georgia Southern and fledgling program Georgia State. Seeing any of those schools win more than four games would be a surprise.

The second group is the mediocre middle, where Troy, ULM and Texas State reside. None of these teams is awful, but it’s also hard to see any of them break through into the top of the league. ULM is replacing the truly excellent Kolton Browning, who led one of the great upsets of the new millennium by nearly single-handedly taking down eighth-ranked Arkansas in Fayetteville in the 2012 opener. The Warhawks may never see a QB of his caliber again. Troy seemed to have transformed into a perennial SBC contender a few years back but has stumbled to a 14-22 record since 2011. It’s hard to trust the Trojans now. Texas State is hardly a bad team, but it’s baffling to think of what possessed this program to make the jump to FBS two seasons ago. The Bobcats were never exactly an FCS powerhouse.

That leaves us with the cream of the crop, which in the Sun Belt means ULL, always-dangerous Arkansas State and quickly-rising newcomer South Alabama. Arky State has been the standard SBC teams are measured to in the past several years, posting a 28-11 mark the past three seasons despite changing head coaches three times. It happens again in 2014 as Blake Anderson takes over, so expect the Red Wolves to once again be in the mix for the conference crown. South Alabama has come a different route, starting football just five years ago. The Jaguars moved into the SBC in 2011 and increased their win total from two to six over the past year. With a ton of starters coming back, this is a trendy sleeper pick. I’ll stick with Louisiana, though.

And that’s it for my exhausting conference previews. The Pac-12 section comes tomorrow, as I simply have far too much to say about those teams to include it here. In that vein, here’s the updated conference power rankings for 2014, after the Big Ten and Pac-12 solidified their respective positions during the 2013 season.

1) SEC

2) Pac-12

3) Big 12

4) ACC

5) Big Ten

6) Mountain West

7) American

8) MAC

9) Conference USA

10) Sun Belt

The West Coast preview arrives tomorrow. The season starts Thursday (I refuse to count Wednesday’s Abilene Christian – Georgia State game). Vamanos.

Back to school

Another eventful offseason is over, complete with the requisite player scandals, coach scandals and, new this year, NCAA scandals! The O’Bannon case is over, and… it doesn’t look good for collegiate athletics’ governing body. Although some of the details of the ruling (such as the $5,000-per-year figure) are strange and/or arbitrary, the case still feels like the beginning of the end for college football as we know it. Considering the massive changes the sport has already seen in the past decade, that’s a powerful statement, but it’s true. The so-called “Power Five” conferences, seemingly on the verge of splitting off into a fourth division, have momentarily tabled that talk pending the results of multiple lawsuits like the O’Bannon case and the Northwestern union decision (which also went badly for the NCAA).

Programs are now allowed to cover the “full cost” of being a student-athlete, which largely means more food but includes opening the door for actual compensation, also known as the dreaded pay-for-play. This naturally widens the gap between what were previously considered the “automatic qualifying” or BCS schools and the non-AQ’s, or mid-majors. Couple that with the advent of a College Football Playoff ™ (finally!) that promises to emphasize quality wins and schedule strength and we’ve got a system more stacked in favor of the haves than it’s ever been.

Or do we? During the BCS’ reign of terror, exactly zero mid-majors played for a national championship and few ever came close. The last mid-major to be awarded a national title was BYU in 1984 and that championship is viewed with heavy skepticism to this day. Going back 20 years to the 1995 season (the first year of the Bowl Alliance, the BCS' doomed predecessor), there were 66 schools in the six power conferences (the Southwest Conference and Big 8 would later merge into the Big 12). Today there are 64 teams in the Power Five leagues.* Not that much has really changed. The traditional powers still control the sport. Notre Dame is still given preferential treatment for some inane reason. And the band(s) play on.

*For the record, the power leagues lost Temple, Houston, SMU and Rice and gained Louisville and Utah.

True, some of the top teams this year hail from slightly less hallowed pasts (Oregon, Michigan State) than their powerhouse brethren, but for the most part the programs that have risen up in recent years have done so in gradual, organic fashion. Baylor didn’t go from doormat to the Fiesta Bowl in a season. Likewise, some of the powerhouse programs of old looking at hard times (Michigan, Tennessee) have slid slowly and might only need a new coach or star player to deliver the shot in the arm that returns them to relevance.

Today I’ll cover the potential national champions in two groups. The first contains the absolute locks to at least be in the running for one of the four playoff spots. The second is fringe candidates that will need more help or breaks to reach those heights. These groups are small, because there simply aren't that many teams that have a realistic chance at winning it all. A lot has to go right. Without further ado:

Group A

Florida State

There’s a reason the defending champs are number one on any sane person’s list. Heisman winner Jameis Winston returns after throwing for 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns as a freshman. Four-fifths of the outstanding 2013 O-line is back. The schedule is, once again, very ACC-like. An opening-weekend date with Oklahoma State in Arlington shouldn’t prove too taxing and after that it’s tough to find places the Seminoles might stumble. Rivals Clemson and Florida both have to come to Tallahassee, so the only potential trap is at Miami (FL). I doubt the Hurricanes will have enough to seriously challenge this team.

There are some personnel losses that will have to be overcome. Leading rusher Devonta Freeman and receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw are gone, along with a decent amount of what was one of the nation’s best defenses last year. However, the ‘Noles actually return more defensive starters now (six) than they did in 2013 (four), so things will probably work out just fine. At this point I also have a lot of confidence in head coach Jimbo Fisher, who has righted the ship since taking over for Bobby Bowden in 2010, going 45-10 in four seasons. FSU is primed for another title run.

Alabama

And they’re back. But for one of the all-time most ridiculous plays in football history, ‘Bama might be celebrating a third straight title. Instead, Crimson Tide fans have had to worry all offseason about the identity of the next starting quarterback and how the defense will replace all-stars like LB C.J. Mosley and safety Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix. The rest of the college football world won’t waste any time (or tears) on the plight of poor, poor Alabama. With the elite recruits still rolling in, it’s safe to say this team won’t have much trouble finding adequate replacements for its departed heroes.

Nick Saban knows defenses. In the past six years, only once have the Tide allowed more than two touchdowns a game. I expect that to continue, regardless of which four- and five-star recruits the team chooses to throw out there. It’s entirely possible it doesn’t matter who ‘Bama plays at QB, though the addition of the reviled Lane Kiffin as offensive coordinator provides for some definite intrigue. Everyone knows the drill in Tuscaloosa at this point, though. Mash the ball with talented backs like T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake. Play great defense and avoid mistakes. Win titles. There’s no reason to think Alabama won’t be right back in the mix this year.

Oklahoma

The Sooners return nine starters from the Big 12’s best defense. That’s generally a backhanded compliment given the level of defense played in that conference, but OU has some serious playmakers lining up in the back seven. LB's Frank Shannon and Dom Alexander are tackling machines that should help this team return to the kind of defensive prowess it displayed in the early 2000’s. Offensively the Sooners lost a lot of skill position players, but the transition should eased by a strong line that will protect semi-new QB Trevor Knight well.

There’s less margin for error for OU because the Big 12 no longer plays a conference title game, but the two other top contenders for league supremacy have to either come to Norman (Baylor) or meet the Sooners on a neutral field (Texas). Only Texas Tech poses any threat on the road and the non-conference schedule is breezy. Late last season this team seemed to rediscover its edge after posting back-to-back uninspired 10-3 campaigns. If OU plays in 2014 like it did against ‘Bama in the Sugar Bowl, look out.

Oregon

Interestingly enough, I think the playoff helps Oregon more than any other top contender. Were the BCS still in place, I’d be skeptical of the Ducks’ chances to land a title game berth. With four spots available this year, there’s room for UO to make what is becoming a customary late-season stumble and still play for a championship, especially if there’s a Pac-12 title on the resume. The defensive front has been bolstered, so there’s no excuse for repeats of the maulings seen in the Stanford and Arizona games last year.

On offense the key issue is receiver play, but like Oklahoma, the Ducks can lean on their talented line for support (and it’s worth noting that Oregon is far superior at both QB and running back). The schedule is nasty, though that may turn out to be beneficial; because of the Pac-12’s strength, even an early loss to Michigan State wouldn’t eliminate the Ducks from playoff consideration. Once again UO’s fate will come down to line play, but in any case this squad will certainly have its chances.

Michigan State

The Spartans make this list almost by default after Ohio State got Braxton Miller-ed out of championship contention (although I would have included them regardless). Michigan State is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten, hosting a hobbled OSU squad and rival Michigan AND missing the two best teams from the newly christened West Division in Wisconsin and Iowa. Three of the four conference road games are laughable (Purdue, Indiana, Maryland). The only real challenge is at Oregon in Week Two.

The question already being asked is, “Should MSU make the playoff if the Spartans lose to the Ducks but otherwise run the table?” It’s complicated. On the basis of that resume – 12-1 through a resoundingly awful Big Ten – the answer is no. However, this is in fact a very talented team, one that beat a pair of top-five squads to end last season (Ohio State, Stanford). I believe Michigan State should get the benefit of the doubt regardless of the outcome in Eugene. The Spartans could very well just win that game, though.

Group B

UCLA

The Bruins are right on the cusp. They’re definitely a trendy pick, as seen by the way they’ve gone from being labeled a “Pac-12 title candidate” to a “darkhorse playoff team” to “national championship contenders!” in the span of about a month. There’s a lot to like, with 17 returning starters and a favorable schedule that sees both Oregon and Stanford make the trip to Pasadena. Myles Jack might be the best two-way player in the country.

Brett Hundley, though. Everything rests on him. The UCLA QB has been getting a ton of Heisman and NFL buzz and at this point I have to say it’s undeserved. The fact of the matter is that to this point in his career Hundley is simply not a great passer. UCLA hasn't won a single game against a great opponent with Hundley behind center and has been outclassed by every elite team it has faced in that time. Perhaps he can make a leap to superstardom, but I’ll believe when I see it.

Baylor

The receivers are deadly. QB Bryce Petty could make a run at the Heisman. There’s a pretty new stadium and the Bears will be defending their first-ever Big 12 title. Even with a lot of turnover on the O-line, it’s hard not to see the nation’s top-scoring offense in 2013 picking up right where it left off. The schedule isn’t easy, but in the Big 12 there aren’t many gimmes anyway. Baylor should probably start 8-0 before a showdown with Oklahoma.

That’s it for the good news. The bad news is that it’s hard to see the ground game being as good this season, meaning the Bears will have to lean more heavily on the passing attack. Some of the Big 12 will be out for revenge after getting blown out last season. And the defense, ever an issue at (comparatively) talent-thin Baylor, loses seven starters from a unit that already ranked in the middle of the conference in 2013. The Bears could still get to the playoff, but a lot has to go right.

Auburn

From a talent standpoint Auburn isn’t lacking. Everyone knew this program’s 3-9 mark in 2012 was more reflective of the team quitting on former coach Gene Chizik than of a sudden dearth of good players. This is a high-profile SEC school, after all. The top four pass-catchers from 2013 return, along with four-fifths of the offensive line. Nick Marshall went from “awful” to “average” as a passer as last season progressed, so this team overall looks to be in good shape. But…

Come on. There’s just no way a team can have everything go right for not just the second season in a row, but the third time in five years. Good though Auburn was last year, the Tigers had absolutely no business beating Washington State. Or Texas A&M. Or Georgia. Or Alabama. There has to be a regression to the mean of good fortune, even for a coach as good as Gus Malzahn. Auburn is good, but I can’t imagine it having the same kind of season.

South Carolina

The Gamecocks are a bit of an outside shot, but from a certain perspective I’d say they’re due some breaks (certainly more so than Auburn). Steve Spurrier has been in Columbia a decade and SC has only played in a single SEC title game (losing 56-17 to Auburn in 2010). The SEC is tough, but this program has improved tremendously in recent years and should have had slightly more success (even counting the three straight 11-win seasons). Something always seems to go wrong at the wrong time for this team.

RB Mike Davis is a stud and returning WR’s Damiere Byrd and Shaq Roland are proven playmakers. I like QB Dylan Thompson, who has played well in relief in years past. There’s a lot of turnover defensively, but the Gamecocks have been solid on that side in recent seasons regardless of the amount of returning personnel. Even though this is no juggernaut, I still wouldn’t be shocked to see SC in the playoff.

Georgia

Speaking of teams deserving of some good karma, how about Georgia? The Bulldogs were absolutely decimated by injuries last season, when they were in prime position to challenge for the SEC and national title. But have no fear – despite the loss of all-time UGA great Aaron Murray, this squad has plenty left over. Senior Hutson Mason takes over for Murray at QB and with the fierce RB duo of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, the offense will be ready to roll again.

Defensively the Bulldogs lose S Josh Harvey-Clemons but otherwise look loaded. It’s the schedule, though, that should really help. Georgia gets a bye before the Week Three trip to South Carolina, then doesn’t play another tough road game the rest of the year. What’s more, UGA misses ‘Bama and LSU from the West and gets its final three opponents at home. Everything seems to set up very nicely.

LSU

It’s hard to really know what to think about the Tigers. They lose QB Zach Mettenberger along with bruising RB Jeremy Hill and the leading returning receiver had seven catches last season. I’ve never been particularly high on the strategic acumen of coach Les Miles, and LSU seems to be one of those elite programs that, for whatever reason, can never consistently identify above-average skill-position players.

This is what I know about the Tigers, though: they will play outrageously good defense (seven returning starters). They will commit to running the ball, sometimes to the point of absurdity. And they will win games. This is an extremely talented O-line and there’s a freshman RB named Leonard Fournette who has been getting Heisman buzz despite having never played a down. LSU can parlay that into a playoff berth with the right amount of luck.

Once again, it’s a small group. It’s always possible the next champion could come from somewhere else, especially now that the playoff era has begun. But history has shown the pool of true contenders is generally limited to two or three teams per conference (the high number of SEC schools present here notwithstanding). With the decline of the Big Ten, the number has shrunk even further. The conference rundowns will be coming tomorrow.