The National Championship conversation and
conference races have been covered. The Pac-12 is all that’s left, and a lot
needs to be addressed. I said previously that I don’t see the league getting a
team into the Playoff; the more I look at the conference, the more convinced I
am of that result. There are too many good teams, and none is elite enough to
navigate the treacherous road unscathed.
There are six legitimate contenders for the Pac-12
crown, four of them in the stacked North Division. It’s easy to make a case for
Stanford, Oregon, Washington and Washington State to win it. In the South, it’s
UCLA and USC. Varying talent levels, the location of games, and the
conference’s imbalanced cross-division scheduling will all have an impact on
the race, as my breakdowns will demonstrate. This was by far the most difficult
set of predictions I’ve ever made.
Every year I run through the schedule of each squad
in the Pac-12 and mark down which games can be penciled in as probable wins and
probable losses, creating a “floor to ceiling” range in which I expect the
team’s record to fall (For the record, last season I predicted 10 of 12 teams
correctly, only missing the Washington schools, which I underestimated by two
wins apiece). This season I’m going further, with a rundown of each team’s
schedule that explains how I foresee the year unfolding. The 2016 season is
very hard to project. There’s a lot of room for madness in this conference.
North Division
California
Floor: 1-11
Ceiling: 4-8
Team analysis
Cal isn’t a lost cause this year the way it was a
few years back. Losing the school’s all-time leading passer is going to hurt,
but it’s not as if Jared Goff ever led this team to any big wins. In three
years, the Golden Bears’ best victory with their departed quarterback was last
season’s six-point win over Washington State, which carried no weight at the
time because WSU had opened the year with an embarrassing loss to FCS foe
Portland State.
The bigger problem is the team’s future outlook
after the talent lost in 2015. Cal is 14-23 in the Sonny Dykes era, with a 7-20
Pac-12 record that includes zero wins over the Bears’ in-state rivals. Last
season’s seven-win regular season was the program’s high-water mark since the
start of this decade, and it might go down as the best result until the start
of the NEXT decade if Cal doesn’t improve fast. Losing a good passer isn’t the
end of the world, it’s the rest of the roster that needs addressing. Besides,
Cal will be fine at QB this year.
Texas Tech graduate transfer Davis Webb will step in
at QB in 2016, which should nullify any concerns about a rough transition. Webb
played well in a similar offense, at a similar level of competition, during his
time at Tech. He’ll do fine. The problem with the offense is everyone else who
will touch the ball. The line should perform at about the same level as it did
a year ago, which is to say, pretty good (Cal allowed just 27 sacks last season
– not bad for team that throws at the volume of the Bear Raid). However, the
Bears’ running backs – and rushing offense – are fairly pedestrian, and much
more importantly, Cal loses its top six receivers from 2015. Leading returning
WR Chad Hansen caught a mere 19 balls last year, a tiny figure for this
offense. That puts a lot of pressure on Webb to come in and carry the entire
offense.
Defensively, Cal finally improved enough in 2015 to
win some games, though I have hard time seeing how a repeat performance is in
order after the Bears lost five of their top six defensive players. To make matters
worse, the sixth player – safety Damariay Drew – tore his ACL and is out for
the year. In total, the Bears return five defensive starters, including just
two in the back seven. Defensive end DeVante Wilson is pretty good, but he’s devoid of
much quality help. It’s likely this team is headed for yet another year of
shootouts.
Schedule breakdown
Cal opens with a game against Hawai’i in Sydney,
Australia. The Bears should defeat the Rainbow Warriors, expected to be one of
the worst teams in the Mountain West. After a week off, the team heads to San
Diego State, the reigning MWC champ and one of the best mid-major squads in the
country. It’s hard to see a win there, or the following week when the Bears get
Texas in the home opener back in Berkley.
After a 1-2 start, an easy Pac-12 opener isn’t in
store either, as Cal must travel to Arizona State. The next week is Utah at
home. I expect Cal to open 0-2 in conference play before going to Oregon State
and picking up its first league win. Unfortunately, even at 2-4, the worst of
the schedule is still to come.
After another bye, Cal faces the Death Gauntlet of
the six best teams in the conference, starting at home against Oregon. Six days
later the Bears play at USC, then come home for Washington, travel to Washington
State, and end the year at home against Stanford and UCLA. None of those games
are winnable. That moves Cal to 2-10 on the year, 1-8 in the Pac-12.
Oregon
Floor: 7-5
Ceiling: 12-0
Team analysis
Oregon failed to win 10 games last season for the first
time in eight years, collapsed in the second half of the Alamo Bowl, and looked
lost without graduate transfer QB Vernon Adams. Adams is gone, the inconsistent
offensive line doesn’t appear to be much improved, and the defense is a glaring
question mark. The national opinion (and reasonable response) is that UO’s run
is over. I don’t blame anyone for thinking that, nor do I blame the Ducks’
long-suffering rivals for celebrating.
But let’s not celebrate too soon. 2015 was viewed as
a near-disaster for Oregon, yet the Ducks only got their starting QB two weeks
before the season, fielded their worst defense in school history and blew two
games in the regular season – Michigan State, Washington State – that kept them
out of the Playoff. The Ducks dominated Washington, Stanford and USC, all of
which have been picked to win the Pac-12 this season. This is still a very
talented team that will compete for the conference title.
Offensively, UO will undoubtedly be more consistent
with either graduate transfer Dakota Prukup or Travis Jonsen at the helm rather
than the oft-injured Adams jumping in and out of the lineup. The Ducks’
passer-friendly scheme can somewhat alleviate concerns about the line, and the
new signal-caller also gets another big advantage: He gets to play point man
for the best collection of skill talent in the conference (and it isn’t
remotely close). The Ducks lost receiver Bralon Addison but return every other
skill player. The running back quartet, led by bellcow Royce Freeman, is among
the top five groups in the country, while the receiving corps is second only to
USC in the conference (and it might be deeper). Oregon also gets back two
players who missed the 2015 season in All-Pac-12 tight end Pharoah Brown and receiver/Olympic
hurdler Devon Allen (Allen actually caught nine passes in six games while
returning from injury). This is a frightening group.
Defensively, Oregon changes from a 3-4 to a 4-3 with
the arrival of new coordinator Brady Hoke. Hoke, who flamed out as the Michigan
head coach due to his inability to build an offense, is nevertheless a
tremendous defensive mind. His units at San Diego State and UM were outstanding
and he should rapidly improve a defense that was awful a year ago but has a
decent amount of talent. The Ducks simply won’t allow 37.5 points and 485 yards
per game again, and while they won’t remind anyone of Alabama, they certainly
have the ability to not flat-out lose games again this year. The key is the
secondary, where UO needs big seasons from corners Arrion Springs and Tyree
Robinson.
Schedule breakdown
The schedule is one of the reasons for optimism with
this team. The Ducks get two warm-ups in the form of FCS foe UC Davis and Virginia,
one of the worst Power Five teams in the nation. Then comes the first test, a
trip to Nebraska. The Cornhuskers should be pretty good this year, but Oregon
should be better, so a loss here would signal real trouble.
I’ll call for a 3-0 start, followed by a win in
Eugene to open the Pac-12 season against Colorado. UO should be better than
Washington State, but the game is in Pullman, and I see the Cougars winning.
Back home against a Washington team I have undefeated at that point, I think
the Ducks pull the upset to move to 5-1 going into their idle week.
A trip to Cal off a bye is no problem, and the
following home game with ASU also looks like a win. From there it’s down to
USC, and although Oregon has dominated the Trojans this decade I think the
Ducks lose here. Once again, though, I have UO upsetting a division rival at
home after a loss, this time against Stanford. After a tough win at Utah, the finale at Oregon State will
be a formality, leaving the Ducks at 7-2 in conference, 10-2 on the year.
Oregon
State
Floor: 1-11
Ceiling: 4-8
Team analysis
First, the good. Oregon State will be a better team
in 2016 than it was in 2015. The Beavers have now had a full year to adapt to
Gary Andersen’s scheme changes and will be more comfortable. They also return a
good amount of contributors on both sides and can’t possibly be any worse
offensively than they were a year ago, when they failed to have a 1,000-yard
PASSER and completed just 47.1 percent of their throws.
Now, the bad. There’s still not an answer at QB. The
O-line will be average again. OSU might score a full touchdown more per game
this season and still be mediocre (that would move them up to a paltry 26
points per game). The schedule is also unforgiving, with likely losses to
Minnesota and Boise State in the non-conference. Andersen has a good track
record, but this is a tall order.
Ryan Nall is one of the bright spots for OSU at the
skill positions, a 6’2”, 235-pound workhouse back who the team can build
around. Along with 6’5” WR Jordan Villamin, he represents a potential
physicality to the offense the Beavs have missed in recent years. Yet it’s
actually 5’9” receiver Victor Bolden who defenses have to plan for; OSU will
use the diminutive jitterbug on sweeps, screens and who knows what else to
create open-field mismatches. Hunter Jarmon isn’t a bad receiver either. I
don’t think Oregon State will be getting into a lot of shootouts, but there’s a
decent blueprint here: pound it with Nall and the option QB’s, get the ball to
Bolden whenever possible, and find Villamin and tight end Caleb Smith in the
red zone.
The Beavers should be better defensively than
offensively after giving up 37 points and 482 yards per game in 2015. The
D-line is inexperienced but has some nice size. The linebackers will improve
after last season’s debacle, as should the secondary. None of this means OSU is
going to lead the conference in total defense, but an improvement should be
noticeable. If the self-described “West Coast Linebacker U” can get good years
from LB’s Caleb Saulo and Titus Failauga, OSU will be on the upswing.
Schedule breakdown
As I said before, the schedule is a problem. OSU
probably won’t win at Minnesota in the opener. The team then gets a
terribly-timed bye, in Week Two, before their only surefire win (Idaho State).
Boise State isn’t going to go well the next week, which leaves the Beavers at
1-2 before opening league play.
To make matters worse, a winnable game against
Colorado is on the road, followed by the home showdown with fellow North
cellar-dweller Cal. OSU could win either, but for the purposes of my
predictions I have them winning neither. Ditto for the home contest with Utah.
That puts the Beavs at 1-5, and the toughest stretch
hasn’t even begun. OSU is not going to get a win in its next four games
(Washington, WSU, Stanford and UCLA, with only WSU at home), nor is it likely
to get one in the finale with rival Oregon. That leaves the penultimate game
with Arizona (at home) to keep this team from going winless in the Pac-12
again. I don’t think it happens, and OSU finishes 1-11, 0-9 in conference.
Stanford
Floor: 6-6
Ceiling: 12-0
Team analysis
Stanford has built its program up quite
impressively, but it’s pretty difficult to see how it will top last year’s
results. The Cardinal weren’t the best team in North last year, needing
questionable calls and a missed field goal to get by Washington State and some
atrocious officiating to even hang with Oregon’s offense. Yet the Cardinal
knocked off the necessary opponents and won the Pac-12 and the Rose Bowl
against a vastly outmanned Iowa squad.
The good fortune this team has manufactured in
recent seasons was partially self-created, which isn’t surprising for a program
that emphasizes line play, ball control and good fundamentals. At a certain
point, though, the luck has to run out, and that’s what the Cardinal are
looking at this year with the loss of mercurial QB Kevin Hogan, who was never
exactly a star but had a knack for winning games even when he shouldn’t have.
Hogan had his ups and downs, but he certainly was
present for a lot of victories. Stanford always leans on the run game anyway,
and RB Christian McCaffrey is good, but the loss of three starting linemen and
the QB seems to indicate an impending decline. The Cardinal also lose some
pass-catching depth with the departure of TE Austin Hooper and WR Devon
Cajuste, which could put even more of the offensive onus on McCaffrey. Quite
frankly, I think the rest of the league will be more prepared for that this
year.
The defensive outlook is rosier, even with the loss
of three of the top four leading tacklers. The front seven is always the
strength of Stanford’s D, and despite some inexperience, it should be again. However,
the secondary should be pretty good as well, with safety Dallas Lloyd anchoring
a unit that can improve on last season’s slightly disappointing finish. As long
as the Cardinal focus on the run game and play their typical hard-nosed
defense, they’ll still be in a good position to contend in the North.
Schedule breakdown
Stanford is one of the most frustrating teams to
predict, given its propensity for non-conference flops and random Pac-12
meltdowns. The USC – Stanford series in particular has been impossible to
figure for the past five years. Going from history and my instincts, this is
how I see the season unfolding.
The Cardinal open at Kansas State, a potentially
tricky matchup not unlike the Northwestern loss that (fortunately) marked the
nadir of the 2015 season. I expect Stanford to take care of business this time,
but the ensuing idle week won’t help in Week Three when USC comes to town and
avenges last year’s loss. However, in true Stanford fashion, I think the
Cardinal save their season on the road at UCLA the following week, stunning the
favored Bruins.
It wouldn’t be a Stanford team without a little
drama, though, so I think the Cardinal lose the next week at Washington, then
come home to defeat Washington State before a mid-year trip to Notre Dame. I’m
not sure why Stanford insists on playing the Fighting Irish, but I foresee
another loss here to drop the team to 3-3 overall.
From there, the road gets easier, with winnable
games against Colorado, at Arizona and back at home against Oregon State.
Stanford should sit at 6-3 at this point and look like a North contender again;
however, I think the dream ends with a loss in Eugene the next week before the
Cardinal close out with wins at Cal and over Rice (Rice in the finale?!) at home.
That rollercoaster ride produces an 8-4 record, with a 6-3 mark in Pac-12 play.
Washington
Floor: 7-5
Ceiling: 12-0
Team analysis
The Huskies are on the rise. Chris Peterson is the
high-character, quality in-game coach this program has sorely needed for more
than a decade, and he seems to have found his prototypical QB in Jake Browning.
That spells trouble for the ruling class – Stanford, Oregon – of the North. UW
has a nice group of returning starters, has recruited well, and looks poised
for a breakout year. West coasters will roll their eyes at hearing that for the
umpteenth time this decade, but I think this time it’s for real. The question
is, how fast will Washington improve?
The offseason predictions have, at this point,
gotten out of hand. There are analysts calling for Washington to win upwards of
10 games, win the Pac-12 and even make the Playoff. That’s a massive leap of
faith and pretty unfair to expect from a team that was fortunate to qualify for
a bowl last season (UW was 4-6 after 10 games). The Huskies have a relatively
favorable schedule and the good fortune of improving at the same time Oregon
and Stanford appear to be declining, but let’s see a division title before we
get too excited.
The offensive line is respectable, which should help
out Browning as he grows into the future of this team. Even with the return of
speedster John Ross, the Huskies lost a lot of receiving production, so it’s
good that Myles Gaskin emerged as one of the best freshman backs in the nation
last year. Peterson is a good offensive architect and should be able to make
this group better than the sum of its parts, although it’s unlikely to be
elite.
Old reliable LB Travis Feeney has departed. Safety
Brian Clay and DT Taniela Tupou are also gone, but otherwise the defense
returns largely intact. That’s great news for the conference’s best unit in
2015. LB Azeem Victor is a freak, while do-everything safety Budda Baker leads
a secondary could be among the nation’s best, though it’s worth noting that the
Huskies gave up nearly 300 yards through the air last year to Stanford and
Oregon, two teams not exactly known for their passing prowess. UW’s defense
against the balance of its North rivals, which it must play back-to-back, could
determine the outcome of the season.
Schedule breakdown
UW gets three easy home wins to start the season
against Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State, and the conference opener at Arizona
shouldn’t be too much trouble. After a 4-0 start, the national hype will reach
a fever pitch when the Huskies host – and beat – defending champion Stanford at
home to end September.
With pundits predicting a Playoff run, the trip to
Oregon the next week will provide a dose of humility, as Washington falls to
the Ducks for the 13th straight year. After a week off, though, UW
will get back to its winning ways, beating Oregon State at home as well as Utah
and Cal on the road.
At 8-1, the Huskies will again have national hype on
their side, but a home loss to USC will end any longshot hopes at a Playoff
berth. UW will turn around to get a victory over Arizona State in the home
finale, but with the division on the line in the Apple Cup, I predict the
Cougars will get sweet revenge in Pullman for last year’s loss. However, at 6-3
in the Pac-12 and 9-3 overall, the season will be a resounding success that
points toward a potential league title (and Playoff bid) in 2017.
Washington
State
Floor: 6-6
Ceiling: 12-0
Team analysis
Washington State took a major step forward in 2015,
nearly winning the North after playing at the highest level of any team in the
division for the majority of the year. The Cougs got a lucky overtime win
against a backup QB at Oregon, yes, but it still took a fluke loss to Cal and a
missed field goal against Stanford to prevent WSU from making its first trip to
the Pac-12 title game.
The new season brings a new challenge, as conference
foes will longer pencil in Wazzu for a win. Ask Oregon and Stanford what it’s
like being the hunted. The Cougars don’t get to surprise people any more, and
the decision to travel to Boise State in non-league play means WSU has to wake
up and start playing in Week One this year. No more embarrassing opening losses
to Rutgers or Portland State.
The Cougars enter 2016 with the luxury of boasting
the conference’s most accomplished QB in Luke Falk, a remarkably accurate
passer who could become the school’s all-time leading passer by the end of his
junior season. Dom Williams is the only casualty from the Pac-12’s most
prolific receiving corps, so Mike Leach’s guys should be ready to fly again.
The backs aren’t exactly impressive, but they all return, and the O-line will
should more or less match last year’s performance.
As important as the offense is in Pullman, the Cougs
would have never won nine games in 2015 without the big improvement they saw in
their defense. After spending several years at the bottom of the Power Five
conferences, WSU allowed nearly 11 points per game fewer in 2015 than they did
in 2014. The front seven stills needs work, but both the D-line and LB’s are
much better than they were a few years ago. Moreover, the return of starting
corners Marcellus Pippins and Darrien Molton, along with safety Shalom Luani, means
the Cougars should again be strong defending the pass in this pass-happy
league.
Schedule breakdown
After a season-opening win over Eastern Washington,
WSU has to take on Boise State on the road. This is a dangerous opponent, but I
do have the Cougs winning, followed by a victory over regional rival Idaho.
The bye then comes at a perfect time, giving the
Cougs an extra week to prepare for their conference opener versus Oregon. I
have WSU beating the Ducks, but losing on the road the next week at Stanford.
The team gets no chance for rest with UCLA coming to Pullman, and I have the
Cougs losing that contest as well. Facing three Pac-12 contenders in three
weeks takes its toll, which costs Wazzu in a road loss to Arizona State.
A trip to Oregon State is exactly what the team
needs, and the Cougars follow up that win with two more at home against Arizona
and Cal. Colorado won’t be able to top WSU in Boulder, either. The Apple Cup
will then hold huge implications. After a blowout loss in Seattle a year ago
with Falk injured, the Cougs will strike back to beat the Huskies on the
Palouse and finish 9-3, with a 6-3 conference record.
South Division
Arizona
Floor: 2-10
Ceiling: 7-5
Team analysis
The Wildcats never fully recovered from a
turnover-filled beatdown at the hands of UCLA in their 2015 conference opener,
a disastrous game that also saw QB Anu Solomon sustain the first of several
injuries that would plague him throughout the season. The 2014 South champs
followed the loss to Bruins with a much uglier one the next week at Stanford,
getting off to an 0-2 start in Pac-12 action that hung over the rest of the
season and resulted in a 3-6 conference record. ‘Zona went to a bowl only
because it went undefeated in its weak non-league schedule and got a fluke
upset of Utah in overtime.
Despite the inconsistent QB play, Arizona had a
solid offensive performance in 2015. The offense returns enough to still be
potent this year, while the defense – which slipped down to nearly 36 ppg
allowed, the school’s worst ever – should be improved. But it’s the mental
makeup of this team that worries me. What happened last season? Did players
lose faith in the coaching staff, or Solomon? Will the signal-caller even win
his own job back? 2016’s schedule is less forgiving and will test these
questions right off the bat.
Offensively, the Wildcats should be safe. Losing
three receivers with nearly 150 combined catches is tough, but Trey Griffey,
Samajie Grant and Nate Phillips make up a more-than-respectable replacement
trio. RB Nick Wilson should be healthier this year and is one of the better
backs in the conference. The line is good enough to get things done and protect
the QB, whoever he is. Solomon might win the job outright, or he might split
time like he did last season, but in any case the run-heavy workload of Rich
Rodriguez QB’s means the guy out there usually will be productive. We’ll just
have to see if Solomon (or his successor) can succeed against the quality
defenses.
On the other side, ‘Zona returns eight starters. The
silver lining of Scooby Wright’s injury last season (which limited the
All-American LB to just three games in 2015) was the experience the younger
backups gleaned from being forced into action. The block-eating D-line in
Rodriguez’s 3-3-5 scheme should be slightly improved, as should the linebacking
corps, led by Paul Magloire and DeAndre’ Miller. It’s that unconventional
stacked secondary that really makes the difference, though, and the Wildcats do
get three of their five starters back, including both corners. This team
shouldn’t give up as many points as it did last year.
Schedule breakdown
The Wildcats get no favors this season, opening with
BYU in Glendale in a contest that has “reality check” written all over it. I
expect the Cougars to beat Arizona before the Cats come home for a pair of wins
over Grambling State and Hawai’i.
The Pac-12 opener is Washington, which doesn’t bode
well. Just like last year, I see Arizona coming out with a clunker in
conference play. Unfortunately, there’s no time to rest, with back-to-back
trips to UCLA and Utah that also look like losses (although the Utah game is a
toss-up). Heading back to Tucson, the Wildcats get more bad news in the form of
USC.
That’s a nasty stretch to open league action. With
the loss to BYU, I have ‘Zona at 2-5 in its bye week, 0-4 in the Pac-12. But
wait, it gets worse! Stanford is the home game off the idle date (loss),
followed by none other than a November trip to WSU. A late-season game in
Pullman is usually death for the Arizona schools in the best of times, and the
Cougars are a better team this year anyway. That drops the Wildcats to 0-6 in
conference and out of the postseason.
From there, though, a glimmer of hope emerges.
Colorado (at home) should be a win, as should the ensuing road trip to Oregon
State. With nothing but pride on the line in the Territorial Cup, I have
Arizona knocking off ASU to end the disappointing year at 3-6 in the Pac-12,
5-7 overall.
Arizona
State
Floor: 2-10
Ceiling: 8-4
Team analysis
After a pair of 10-win seasons, Arizona State took a
step back in 2015 with a .500 campaign and bowl loss to West Virginia. The Sun
Devils got off to a rough start, losing to Texas A&M in the Texas Classic
and USC in the Pac-12 opener and failing to put up much of a fight in either
contest. ASU was stuck playing catch-up after starting the year on such a sour
note, and both the offense and defense declined.
Part of the issue was turnovers; after posting a
combined plus-29 in turnover margin the previous two seasons, the Sun Devils
were a mere plus-two in 2015. D.J. Foster’s move to WR full-time also failed to
have the impact ASU hoped for, while Mike Bercovici was solid but somewhat
underwhelming in his only season as the unquestioned starting QB. ASU also lost
a pair of shootouts with Oregon and Cal that might have made the season very
different had the Sun Devils prevailed.
Things will be different in 2016, if only because of
necessity. Bercovici is gone, along with four-fifths of the O-line, Foster, and
leading receiver Devin Lucien (a graduate transfer from UCLA). That’s a lot to
replace, but there’s also room for this group to grow. It’s no secret Todd
Graham favors a mobile passer over a more traditional QB like Bercovici, and
the young guns on the roster are more in that mold. The RB corps returns
intact, with Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage leading the way to take pressure
off the eventual starting signal-caller.
The defense should be able to hold its own, despite
the loss of “Devilbacker” Antonio Longino and secondary stars Jordan Simone and
Lloyd Carrington. The returning linebackers are talented and experienced, which
should provide a boon in ASU’s blitz-heavy hybrid 4-3/3-4 scheme. I’d love to
see the Sun Devils dial the aggressiveness back a notch this season, though. As
last season showed, coaches in the Pac-12 have started to effectively game-plan
against those all-out blitzes, to the extreme detriment of the ASU pass
defense.
Schedule breakdown
ASU should get off on a much better foot this
season, starting with wins over Northern Arizona and Texas Tech (somewhat
dangerous) at home. A trip to UTEP in Week Three should also result in a victory.
With a bottom-feeder in Cal to start the conference slate (rather than USC in
2015), the Sun Devils should enter October 4-0.
The next two weeks have the potential to be ugly,
with a trip to USC and a home visit from UCLA that look for all the world to be
losses. ASU should rebound with a win at Colorado, and in the high point of the
season, return home to upset Washington State. After playing nine straight
weeks to start the season, though, the team will fall on the road at Oregon.
The home finale is Utah, a tricky matchup that
favors the Utes, but I’ll call for the Sun Devils to get the win. From there,
it’s off to Washington and rival Arizona. The Huskies, still in the North title
hunt, will make short work of ASU. Arizona is always a crapshoot, but in
Tucson, the Wildcats prevail. ASU ends the year at 7-5, with a 4-5 mark in the
Pac-12.
Colorado
Floor: 1-11
Ceiling: 5-7
Team analysis
The Buffaloes took another step forward last year,
nearly eking out a bowl season with close losses to Arizona, Utah, USC and
UCLA. The defense improved by more than 11 points per game, allowing an average
of less than 30 points for the first time this decade. The offense dipped a
little, but largely because of injuries. This should be the best squad CU has
fielded since joining the Pac-12, with nine returning starters on both sides.
It’s been a long, hard journey back to relevancy,
but the Buffs have managed it by slowly closing the gap in recruiting and
subsequently, on the field. Gone are the days of those 40- and 50-point
blowouts, replaced by respectable losses in which Colorado’s overconfident
opponents are left happy to have survived. CU was only truly blown out of one
game in 2015 (a 42-10 loss to Stanford) and should have beaten both the L.A.
schools and probably Oregon.
A rebuilding program needs consistency on the
O-line, and that’s what this team finally seems to have. Four of the starting
linemen return, while the injuries of recent years allowed the Buffs to build
depth and experience. Sefo Liufau is back for his senior season and should
become Colorado’s all-time leading passer in the process. He’s no superstar,
but Liufau has battled a lot of adversity during his career and is the right
leader for this team. The receiving corps will miss Nelson Spruce, the Buffs’
best player. Mike MacIntyre has accumulated some improved WR talent of late,
though, and the offense’s shift to a more up-tempo, pass-happy style should
benefit players like Devin Ross and Shay Fields.
The defense just needs to stay healthy. CU has been decimated
the past few years, losing entire units to injury (like in 2012, when walk-on
receivers were called on to start in the secondary). The D-line will improve on
last season’s performance, which chopped more than half a yard off the team’s
average yards-per-carry allowed. So should the secondary, which returns all
four starters, including CB Chidobe Awuzie, who led the team in tackles. The
Buffaloes held four of their last six opponents (all Pac-12 teams) to fewer
than 20 first downs, a promising trend that should continue into the start of
2016.
Schedule breakdown
I believe the Buffs will likely win more games than
I predict here, but it’s impossible to know when the team will spring an upset.
Officially, CU will get started with a win over rival Colorado State in Denver,
then return home for a mop-up of Idaho State. A road victory over Michigan is
too much to ask for, though, as is a win at Oregon to open conference play.
The Buffaloes should move to 3-2 with a win back
home over Oregon State, but the next week’s trip to USC is a tall order. A loss
there seems likely, and though I expect it will be a good game, I think CU will
also lose the ensuing contest at home with Arizona State. Heading back out on
the road again, the team will probably lose to Stanford to go to 3-5 on its bye.
Colorado will need a big finish to reach the
postseason. Unfortunately, the visit from UCLA comes after the idle week. The
final road game at Arizona the next week is a toss-up, but the Wildcats will
prevail.
That leaves home dates with Washington State – a
tough late-season, cross-divisional draw – and Utah. WSU should win handily.
The Utah tilt is much more questionable, but in a season of near-misses, I have
the Utes pulling it out. The 3-9 finish (1-8 Pac-12) won’t be indicative of how
close CU gets to a bowl.
UCLA
Floor: 6-6
Ceiling: 12-0
Team analysis
UCLA has been a program of perpetual potential in
the last decade, regularly receiving lofty preseason predictions from the local
media and just as regularly proving those predictions delusional. It helps that
the team has done its part for the Pac-12 in non-conference play, sweeping a
home-and-home with Nebraska and beating Texas twice in three tries, but it’s
time for the Bruins to show up when it matters.
This team’s record against the conference’s elite in
the past five seasons is abysmal. 2015 was a perfect example, as UCLA got
throttled by Stanford (again), lost to Washington State in the crucial home
finale and was run off the field by USC with the South on the line. The loss of
the majority of the offense doesn’t bode well either, but of course the Bruins
have once again been picked as one of the South favorites.
Despite my obvious “Same old UCLA” cynicism, there
are some promising signs this year that temper my doubts. First on the list is
QB Josh Rosen, who succeeded last year as a true freshman despite the awful
“Chosen Rosen” nickname bestowed upon him. He’s legit, a future star and
probable pro QB. The downside is that he loses three of his top four receivers,
along with leading RB Paul Perkins and three starting linemen. But there’s a
hugely underrated change coming for UCLA’s offense this year, as the Bruins
shift from Noel Mazzone’s spread to Kennedy Polomalu’s pro-style attack. I
thought Mazzone was a bit of a hack (future hot take alert!), and the more
traditional offense also fits Rosen much better.
Jim Mora has built up some nice talent on the
defensive side. The loss of All-Pac-12 tackle Kenny Clark will hurt, but
getting Eddie Vanderdoes back from injury should essentially nullify that
problem. With the entire secondary returning (including CB Ishmael Adams, who
makes a curious senior-year switch to WR but will surely still contribute),
UCLA should be pretty good in all phases. The question is whether the team can
stop its best foes in big games; the track record in recent years is not
pretty.
Schedule breakdown
It would be a bit of an understatement to say I’m
worried about the opener at Texas A&M. Rosen is good, but this is a brand
new offense and there’s potential for this to get ugly. However, I think the
Bruins should win thanks to their strong defense, which should know exactly
what the Aggies are doing now that Mazzone is running the A&M offense.
The home opener against UNLV should be no problem,
although at BYU in Week Three is another scary game. As with the A&M game,
I have concerns, but I will pick UCLA to survive and move to an impressive 3-0
start. With a likely top-10 ranking and the team believing its press clippings,
the Bruins will return home and get knocked off by nemesis Stanford.
The loss will galvanize the team in the following
weeks, as UCLA picks up wins against Arizona and at Arizona State. In a big
showdown in Pullman, I see the Bruins getting revenge on Wazzu for last
season’s defeat before coming back to L.A. to beat Utah.
UCLA has struggled the past two meetings with
Colorado, but coming off a bye will help the team move to 8-1 going into its
final homestand. Oregon State will be a cakewalk, but USC will prove to be too
much in the home finale, costing the Bruins the South. They will win at Cal the
following week to finish 7-2 in the Pac-12 and 10-2 overall.
USC
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling: 12-0
Team analysis
Like UCLA, USC always seems to be “back,” yet the
media predictions never seem to quite pan out. SC has been an organizational disaster
the past few seasons, hiring not one but both of Norm Chow’s offensive co-coordinator
successors in a desperate attempt to bring back the glory days of the Pete
Carroll era. Lane Kiffin was an aloof man-child, Steve Sarkisian was a drunk,
and both were mediocre. Turns out the Carroll era had more to do with Carroll
(and Chow) than those guys! Who knew? To top it off, AD Pat Haden was run out
of town after allegedly funneling money from his charity. Fight on, indeed.
Thankfully, those gentlemen are all gone, and the
brand new head coach who can change the culture is… the interim one from last
season, Clay Helton. The Trojans certainly don’t pay much attention to history,
or apparently, the definition of insanity. Helton will probably do fine, but it
remains jarring that was the best USC could do. After a 3-3 start last year
(during which Sarkisian was fired), the Trojans ran off five wins in six games
to clinch the South, which sounds great but glosses over the fact that SC got
smoked by Oregon and Stanford (Pac-12 Championship) and lost the bowl to
Wisconsin. Why should 2016 be better?
Well, the Trojans return 10 starters on offense, for
one. QB Cody Kessler was good, but he’s certainly replaceable, and the
outstanding offensive line will make things a lot easier for whoever ends up
behind center. Justin Davis and Ronald Jones aren’t going to make anyone forget
the hallowed Trojan backs of old, but they’ll get the job done (and have that
great line to run behind). The WR group, led by veterans Juju Smith-Schuster,
Darreus Rogers and Steven Mitchell, is tremendous. Along with starting CB
Adoree’ Jackson, who moonlights at WR, they form probably the Pac-12 best
receiving corps.
The defensive outlook isn’t as bright. Losing tackle
Antwuan Woods and LB Su’a Cravens is big. The secondary, including Jackson,
should be good, but SC has to replace virtually the entire front seven. This
program recruits well, but it’s going to end up asking a lot from its young linemen
and linebackers, which is a scary proposition in the wide-open Pac-12. Oh, and
USC also plays possibly the nation’s toughest schedule.
Schedule breakdown
What was USC thinking? I don’t know. Guaranteeing
five wins might even be a little high with this slate. The Trojans kick off
with a near-certain loss to Alabama in Arlington, and after beating Utah State
the next week they open conference play with another early showdown on the road
at Stanford.
I have SC beating the Cardinal, but losing the following
Friday in a quick turnaround at Utah. Undeterred by the .500 start, the Trojans
will beat Arizona State and Colorado at home before heading back out on the
road for a win at Arizona that sends the team into its idle week at 5-2.
Another home game with Cal will get the Trojans bowl-eligible
with a brutal late-season stretch looming. USC will turn back Oregon in L.A.
before heading out on the road for the final two conference games at Washington
and UCLA. Despite the degree of difficulty, I think SC will shock everyone –
myself included – by winning both contests to take the South. However, the home
finale versus Notre Dame will be a loss. The Trojans end the year at 9-3 and
7-2 in Pac-12 play.
Utah
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling 12-0
Team analysis
It was oh-so-close to a dream season for Utah in
2015. The Utes beat Michigan at the Big House, knocked off rival Utah State,
and stunned the nation by annihilating Oregon in Eugene to start league play. An
8-1 start had the team looking like sure division champs and a potential
Playoff squad, but crushing losses to Arizona and Utah resulted in a 9-3
finish. The Utes got a very fortunate win over rival BYU in the bowl to reach
10 wins but very nearly played for a lot more.
It’s going to be hard to replicate that performance
in 2016, in part because Utah can’t sneak up on anybody and in part because a
lot of quality players have departed. Stalwart QB Travis Wilson, workhorse RB
Devontae Booker and both leading receivers – Kenneth Scott and Britain Covey –
are gone (although Covey will be back after his two-year mission). The front
seven lost a lot of experience (and talent) as well. This looks like a
transition year.
Offensively, the Utes get the benefit of four
returning starters on the line. That’s important for any team, but especially
so for a one like Utah built on running the ball and playing defense. The
eventual starter at QB will have his work cut out for him otherwise, though.
The losses in the receiving corps are heavy. Tight ends Harrison Handley and
Siale Fakailoatonga do have some nice size, and the RB workload might be more
spread out this season, but I still see a decline coming.
Gionni Paul was a monster at LB, and the holes left
by Paul and fellow backer Jared Norris are substantial. The Utes will also miss
DE Jason Fanaika and tackles Viliseni Fauonuku and Stevie Tu’ikolovatu, who
helped Utah hold opponents to just 109 yards rushing per contest. Now, as
stated previously, the D-line is a point of emphasis for this program in
recruiting, so the Utes have some young guys who can competently fill those
voids. It could just take time to get everyone working together smoothly.
Fortunately, Utah does return a pair of standout senior CB’s in Dominque
Hatfield and Reginald Porter, which should help to hold this thing together in
the early going.
Schedule breakdown
The opener with Southern Utah is no threat, but the visit
the following week from BYU will likely result in a loss. After a trip to San
Jose State that should be a win, Utah opens conference play against USC. With
the Trojans coming off a big win over Stanford, the Utes get the upset.
The 3-1 start gets better when Utah wins at Cal,
then comes home for a win over Arizona (which upset the Utes in double OT a
year ago). Playing at Oregon State won’t be too troubling, which gets the team
off to a 6-1 record that recalls 2015’s great start.
As the slate gets tougher, though, the Utes will
struggle to rise to the challenge. Utah loses on the road at UCLA, then again
at home versus Washington before the bye week. Still, the week off doesn’t help
in Tempe, where Utah gets knocked off by Arizona State.
Back in Salt Lake City for the home finale, the
reeling Utes face a hungry Oregon team eager to erase the previous week’s loss
to USC. The fourth straight loss sends Utah to 6-4 before a season-ending
victory at Colorado that sees the team finish 5-4 in the Pac-12, 7-5 overall.
2016 Pac-12 Final Standings Prediction
North
Oregon: 10-2 overall, 7-2 Pac-12
Washington State: 9-3, 6-3
Washington: 9-3, 6-3
Stanford: 8-4, 6-3
California: 2-10, 1-8
Oregon State: 1-11, 0-9
South
USC: 9-3, 7-2
UCLA: 10-2, 7-2
Utah: 7-5, 5-4
Arizona State: 7-5, 4-5
Arizona: 5-7, 3-6
Colorado: 3-9, 1-8
Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon over USC. There’s
no way USC gets the benefit of the doubt in a big game again until it actually
wins one.
These are difficult predictions to make. I think any
of the top four teams could win the North, and I’d take any of them over either
USC or UCLA in the title game. I have a feeling the L.A. schools will both
manage to choke and win at least one game less than I’m projecting here.
Likewise, I think Oregon State, Colorado and Arizona will probably get an upset
here or there I didn’t account for, but it’s impossible to know when those
upsets will occur.
And that’s it! The Great Pac-12 Preview is over, the
season begins in just over a week, and all that’s left to do is sit back and
enjoy the wild ride that figures to be the 2016 college football season. Cal
and Hawai’i kick us off from Sydney next Friday. See you there.
