All along the Western front

Another week, another conference takes it on the chin. This time it was the ACC’s turn, as Clemson and Florida State stunk up national TV on two consecutive nights before the weekend even started. Sure, you could make the argument that the Pac-12 and SEC’s most high-profile programs losing was more embarrassing, but Clemson and FSU are literally all the ACC has. If Week Three was any indication, neither is playoff-worthy.

Start with the Tigers, who bumbled their way to a three-point win at Louisville on Thursday evening. Regardless of how ESPN feels like spinning it, no, this was not a “big road win” or a “test.” Louisville is 0-3. Houston has a three-point road win over the Cardinals. Clemson looked terrible.

Florida State managed to be even worse. At least Louisville has a name people more or less respect. Boston College hasn’t been relevant since Matt Ryan left town, and the Seminoles scored one time on the Eagles’ D. It seems harsh given that both the Tigers and ‘Noles won, but these were bad opponents. This was a disaster for the ACC.

I’ll get to USC later, because the Trojans are a whole different mess. Instead, let’s talk about Alabama, and whether the Crimson Tide are in trouble. The 43 points allowed at home are alarming, yes. So too, is the increasingly likely notion that a dynasty is impossible to maintain for more than a few seasons, even in the uneven world of college football. Quarterback play, long an aspect of the game Nick Saban has managed to skate by without addressing, now appears paramount to ‘Bama’s continued success.

Yet I still can’t shake the thought that this was a fluke. Fortunately, SEC play is still a meat grinder, so we’ll find out soon enough. But the Tide outgained the Rebels by eighty yards. They had 29 first downs to Ole Miss’ 16. They held the ball for more than 35 minutes, and lost the turnover battle 5-0. And they lost the game by six. Forgive me for not crowning the Rebels – or eulogizing the Tide – just yet.

This week should be exciting, a fitting follow-up to the semi-craziness that invaded Week Three. Most of the quality contests are in the Pac-12, but there's a lot more  fun to be had around the country. There’s an early game in Piscataway worth keeping an eye on, as Kansas and Rutgers battle in what could be a matchup of the two worst Power 5 teams. Maryland and West Virginia renew their rivalry at noon, while Tennessee gets an opportunity to prove it really is back at Florida.

Cal has a similar chance at Washington in the Pac-12 opener for both teams. Later, UCLA travels to Arizona for a contest that should provide a lot of insight into how the South race will play out. Utah and Oregon also face off in another big Pac-12 showdown, while USC meets Arizona State in a game that could knock the loser out of the division race in September. In other words, the plot will thicken.

Playoff Poll

Alabama drops out of the top tier this week, though I have a strong feeling we’ll see the Tide again before the season’s out. There seems to be a lot of decent teams, but few elite ones this year. Time will tell if that theory holds true.

First Tier

Michigan State

Georgia

Ohio State

TCU

Ohio State has to fall a little after an ugly win over Northern Illinois. Georgia hasn’t really been tested yet, but SEC play will reveal what we have with the Bulldogs.

Second Tier

Baylor

Ole Miss

Alabama

I consider Ole Miss a second-tier candidate still because of the road the Rebels still have to traverse, while ‘Bama stays here because of the reasons I explained above.

Third Tier

Oregon

Clemson

Florida State

Georgia Tech

Oklahoma

The ACC looked this week, and both FSU and Clemson need to drop. No one else really moved that much.

Pac-12 Report

There were some pleasant surprises this week, as Washington and Colorado notched swing-game wins over Utah State and Colorado State, respectively. Washington State and Oregon State likewise came through in the second halves of their games to down Wyoming and San Jose State, which ensured the conference wouldn’t end the non-league slate with too many embarrassing moments.

Oregon, Utah and the Arizona schools all walked over highly inferior opponents, which brings us to the L.A. schools (Cal also got a win at Texas, though it was more fortuitous than impressive). UCLA escaped with a win over an injury-depleted BYU squad, while USC yet again proved to be unable to deal with expectations in a shootout loss to Stanford.

This is nothing new for the Cardinal, who have made a habit of embarrassing the Pac-12 in non-conference play and then wreaking havoc by knocking off the contenders during league action. It’s much more inexcusable for the Trojans, who have run out of excuses as to why they’re not a title contender any longer.

The sanctions and scholarship restrictions were painful, but this is still USC. The coaching may be a mere ghost of what it was in the halcyon days of Pete Carroll, but the talent is still second to none. What I saw in the Stanford game was simply more of the same thing we’ve seen for the past five seasons: hubris. It appears the instant the program gets attention for potentially being “back,” the entire roster gets self-satisfied, complacent and delusional to the point of arrogance.

Arrogance is what makes wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster – whom the announcers repeatedly referred to as “the best receiver in the nation” during the game – return a punt from his own six, setting up Stanford for a short touchdown on the ensuing drive. It’s what makes the Trojans’ defense relax before the half, assuming the Cardinal couldn’t possibly drive down the field in a minute to take the lead. It’s what makes center Max Tuerk commit a ridiculous late hit in the third quarter to turn a third-and-short into a third-and-15, costing SC a chance to score on the drive.

And most importantly, it’s the tactical advantage conceded to David Shaw, who flat-out coached circles around Steve Sarkisian after halftime. USC’s run game, as it has countless times in dumb losses this decade, disappeared in the second half, despite an incredible passing attack to keep the defense honest. And on the game’s crucial play – a third-and-long to prevent the Cardinal from taking a two-score lead late – the Trojans were burned on a flare screen. The same flare screen USC had been running all night (but which had been bottled up by the third quarter). That’s a total team failure, and it couldn’t more aptly summarize what’s wrong with this team.

So… on to Week Four! Stanford should handle Oregon State Friday night. Colorado has Nicholls State in an easy walkover, which is when the fun begins. Cal – Washington ought to be a great barometer of how competitive the North will be, as the winner will have the inside track to spoiler status. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Arizona knock off UCLA in Tucson given how overhyped the Bruins have been. Then there’s Utah at Oregon, a contest in which I expect the Ducks to hold serve, but could be interesting. Finally, there’s the USC – ASU nightcap, which looked quite promising in the preseason but now looks like a total dud. The Sun Devils could save their season here, but against an angry Trojans squad, I doubt it’ll happen.

2015 Stanzi Awards

It was a veritable treasure trove of Stanzi madness last week, as nine new signal-callers jumped into the fray. Minnesota’s Mitch Leidner also snagged his second Stanzi of the year, just one week after Auburn’s Jeremy Johnson appeared poised to run away with the award.

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 1

Cody Clements, South Alabama: 1

Max Wittek: Hawai’i: 1

Maty Mauk: Missouri: 1

Michael Birdsong, Marshall: 1

Tanner Mangum, BYU: 1

Deshaun Watson, Clemson

Opponent: Louisville

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota

Opponent: Kent State

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest

Opponent: Army

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern

Opponent: Duke

Performance: Two INT, won by nine

P.J. Walker, Temple

Opponent: Massachusetts

Performance: Two INT, won by two

Hayden Moore: Cincinnati

Opponent: Miami (OH)

Performance: Two INT, two FUM, won by four

Matt Johns, Virginia

Opponent: William & Mary

Performance: Two INT, won by six

Matt Linehan, Idaho

Opponent: Wofford

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech

Opponent: Arkansas

Performance: Two INT, won by 11

Josh Rosen, UCLA

Opponent: BYU

Performance: Three INT, won by one

One can only hope Week Four brings as much ridiculousness as the previous weekend. With conference play heating up, it's a pretty decent bet.

Southern Discomfort

Week Two didn’t end up telling us much. Auburn was exposed and Michigan State got a big win, but neither of those teams were true front-runners to begin with. The biggest takeaway from the weekend was that the SEC wasn’t as good as the pollsters thought, but with an absurd eight teams in the top 25 that’s not exactly a shock.

The trouble with Michigan State’s nice victory over Oregon – and it was certainly a quality win – is that it doesn’t mean much in the larger context of the Big Ten season. Under normal circumstances the Spartans would rocket to the top of the polls with such an impressive early-season win, but beating the Ducks is more or less irrelevant until the Ohio State game. Everyone saw Michigan State get outclassed by the Buckeyes last season, and to this point there’s no reason to believe anything has changed in 2015.

It doesn’t seem rash at all to say that Oregon has probably taken a step back this year. The Ducks are still probably very good (they’re definitely talented and as speedy as usual), but they might be a few pieces short of legitimately competing for a title. The question then becomes, “Is Michigan State better than last season?” Based on what we saw in East Lansing on Saturday, the answer is no, or at least not definitively. Nothing in that contest – particularly the Spartans’ anemic passing attack – engendered any hope that this squad is significantly stronger or in any way ready to defeat the Buckeyes, who get MSU at home.

Thus, while the win is nice in the short-term, it’s probably not going to make a difference in the long run. There is a quirky end-of-year outcome in play, where Oregon goes on to finish 12-1 and win the Pac-12 championship while the Spartans go 11-1, losing to Ohio State and missing out on the Big Ten title game. In that scenario, MSU fans would surely assume their team’s head-to-head win would carry more weight for the Playoff committee. There’s a small chance they’d be right… but a much, much larger chance they’d be wrong, for two reasons.

First, the Pac-12 is a vastly stronger conference than the Big Ten. This is an irrefutable fact in 2015 and seems it will be the case for the next few seasons, or until the Big Ten pulls itself together. Oregon, as a potential 12-1 Pac-12 champion, would have a significantly stronger resume than an 11-1 non-champion MSU team.

Second, the final score of the game this weekend would be huge. Oregon’s win last season in Eugene came by 19 points, leaving no doubt as to which side was stronger. A three-point home win isn’t very impressive from an analytic standpoint. Remember that home field in football is valued at around three points, although it’s actually closer to 4-6 points for a big-time school like Michigan State. Bettors would look at this result and say Oregon is the stronger team on a neutral field.

Of course, all of this is very premature. We still have nearly three months of action to go before such a scenario could take place. But it’s worth pointing out now, just in case the controversy does arise.

So what’s on tap this weekend? Not much, unfortunately. There are a couple big caveats to that statement, but overall Week Three looks about as appetizing as… well, opening week. Clemson at Louisville on Thursday night probably seemed like a much bigger deal before the Cardinals went ahead and lost their first two games. Now it’s essentially a tune-up for the big plate of nothing on Saturday.

Cincinnati and Miami (OH) are on in the midday slate, renewing the third-most-played rivalry in the nation, but only a small pocket of the country cares about that game. East Carolina is at Navy for the first conference game in the Midshipmen’s history, which is exciting from a historical standpoint but little else.

Georgia Tech visits Notre Dame in one of the day’s few matchups of ranked opponents. The Yellow Jackets might upset the Fighting Irish, who are already dealing with a host of injuries. At the same time, Auburn gets a chance to prove it isn’t a fraud at LSU. That’s more than enough to keep us occupied during the midday slate; sadly, it’s also most of the quality contests of the day.

Ole Miss – Alabama in primetime should be a very good gauge of where these teams stand as SEC play opens. There are a lot of people who think the Rebels might upset the Crimson Tide for the second straight season. It’s possible, though I’m not particularly inclined to trust the Rebels until I see they’re for real. In any case, it’s one of only two decent games in the entire late afternoon/evening slate.

The other is BYU at UCLA, which features two teams with near-comical over-rankings. BYU might have been a reasonable choice for a top-25 ranking later in the season, had it not lost quarterback Taysom Hill to yet another season-ending injury. The Cougars have won two games in charmed fashion, but let’s be honest: this isn’t a top-caliber team. The same could be said of UCLA, which has ridden a pair of wins over terrible teams to a top-10 ranking. This will probably end up being a coup for the Pac-12, as the Bruins will get what amounts to a free “quality” win. If UCLA struggles here, let it be known the Bruins are, once again, not for real.

Playoff Poll

Michigan State leaps into the top tier by virtue of the win over Oregon. Keep in mind this is not a traditional poll, so I don’t actually think the Spartans are the best team in the country. Rather, it’s a ranking of where teams ought to be valued in terms of their playoff worthiness at this point.

First Tier

Michigan State

Ohio State

Alabama

Georgia

TCU

The jury is still out on TCU and Georgia, but we'll get an early read on Alabama this week versus Ole Miss.

Second Tier

USC

Baylor

Florida State

Clemson

I got to cheat a little with Clemson playing on Thursday night. Yikes. A three-point win over Louisville is decidedly not impressive.

Third Tier

Oregon

Georgia Tech

Oklahoma

The Sooners live! Oregon is too talented to drop out entirely, but the Ducks now have ground to make up. Tech has a big opportunity this weekend at Notre Dame.

Pac-12 Report

It would have been nice for the conference if Oregon had managed to eke out a win at Michigan State, but in the end a hard-fought loss isn’t the worst thing in the world. Oregon didn’t look good in Week One, so the more important thing is that the Ducks played a quality opponent close – thus indicating improvement – in a larger-scope goal of being elite by season’s end.

Utah doesn’t really blow teams out, but it was another solid week for the Utes, turning back rival Utah State and moving to 2-0 with a trip to Oregon to open conference play looming. Not much was expected of Oregon State at Michigan and the Beavers delivered, getting shut out 35-0 after scoring a touchdown on their opening drive. Washington, Colorado, Arizona, UCLA and USC all registered predictably easy wins against bad competition.

Washington State and California both came through, though in different ways. After the Cougars lost to FCS foe Portland State in their opener (and keeping in mind the ugly loss to Rutgers last season), there was little hope WSU could knock off the Scarlet Knights in a cross-country trip. Instead, Wazzu saved itself from Couging it; stuck in a back-and-forth game (and after giving the Scarlet Knights a go-ahead punt return TD), the Cougs confidently marched down the field for the winning score with 13 seconds left. It was an excellent win I had pegged as a loss since the schedule came out.

Cal got a big win of a different kind, spotting San Diego State a seven-point lead before rattling off 35 straight. It was the kind of performance to give people who think the Bears might be pretty good this year (like me!) some hope. Now, with a very interesting matchup at Texas on deck, we’ll get to see what this team is made of.

The night slate was awful for the league, as Stanford bumbled its way to a 10-point first half before putting UCF away, doing little to assuage fears that the team that got shocked last week at Northwestern is woefully undermanned to compete in the Pac-12 this season. Arizona State was even worse, looking nothing like a Power 5 team, let alone a top-25 squad, by struggling with FCS foe Cal Poly. The Sun Devils have been tremendously disappointing so far.

This week, ASU gets another chance to look like a reasonably decent FBS team against New Mexico. Oregon has Georgia State in a walkover, while Arizona hosts Northern Arizona in a similar situation. Utah State – Washington has a chance to be decent, given that USU has the chops to pull the upset in Seattle. Colorado meets rival Colorado State in Denver for the annual Rocky Mountain Showdown; sadly, I’m going with CSU there.

The afternoon slate brings the intrigue, as Cal heads to Austin to take on Texas. This has the potential to be the Golden Bears’ coming out party, as a 3-0 start entering conference play would be pretty sweet for this program. Next, we get to see once and for all whether Stanford is the fraud it’s looked in the season’s first two weeks, when the Cardinal face USC in both teams’ Pac-12 opener. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Stanford get up for this game and make SC’s job difficult. The underdog has been surprising in this series the past few years.

Oregon State and Washington State both get a shot to improve to 2-1 with not-guaranteed but eminently winnable games versus San Jose State and Wyoming, respectively. The Beavs and Cougars should be safe, but seeing as both these schools have dropped home games to FCS teams in recent years, I wouldn’t take anything for granted.

Utah is at Fresno State in a battle of old WAC foes (R.I.P., dear conference) that might have been interesting had the Bulldogs not looked so mediocre in their first two contests. The Utes should handle the crowd in Fresno fairly easily and come away 3-0 with a fun league opener at Oregon on the docket.

Finally, there’s BYU at UCLA, which could have been a really good game had BYU not suffered the aforementioned injuries. The Cougars are generally much more athletic than people realize, but unless the Bruins are significantly more overhyped than they deserve – not out of the question, to be sure – I don’t see BYU making this much of a contest.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The SEC took it on the chin in Week Two, echoing the embarrassment the Pac-12 suffered in Week One. Auburn was extremely lucky to escape Jacksonville State and tumbled in the polls as a result; Arkansas was upset at home by Toledo; Florida and Mizzou struggled to put away mid-majors, and Tennessee blew a 17-3 lead over Oklahoma to lose in overtime. Perhaps both leagues were less stacked than expected? It seems possible, though with the awful state of the Big Ten and ACC, neither will move from the top two of the unofficial conference rankings.

It’s looking more and more as if Kansas will indeed be the worst team in the Power 5 this season. One week after falling to FCS South Dakota State in their opener, the Jayhawks were clobbered by Memphis 55-23. KU’s first – and possibly only – chance at a win comes on October 3^rd, when the team travels to fellow bottom-feeder Iowa State.

2015 Stanzi Awards

It was a lovely start last week, and things only heated up in Week Two. Here are the standings thus far, with the new winners below. Auburn’s Jeremy Johnson is threatening to run away with the award, with five turnovers in two weeks and a pair of weekly Stanzis.

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Cody Clements, South Alabama: 1

Max Wittek, Hawai’i: 1

Michael Birdsong, Marshall :1

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn

Opponent: Jacksonville State

Performance: Two INT, won in OT

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota

Opponent: Colorado State

Performance: Two FUM, won in OT

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

Opponent: Tennessee

Performance: Two INT, won in OT

Maty Mauk, Missouri

Opponent: Arkansas State

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Tanner Mangum, BYU

Opponent: Boise State

Performance: Two INT, won by 11

Mmm. That’s some good Stanzi. See you after Week Three.

Revenge of the Spartans?

Lovely though it was to have college football back, the early results were… underwhelming. The quickly-becoming-traditional kickoff game with South Carolina and North Carolina was a dud. The much-ballyhooed Utah-Michigan contest was boring, with the Wolverines getting outclassed. TCU was tremendously disappointing. Oregon and Baylor played no defense. Boise State played no offense. Even Alabama and Ohio State failed to really inspire.

So, who did look good? There weren’t many teams. Texas A&M beat Arizona State handily, although the Aggies did the same in last year’s opener against South Carolina and it turned out the Gamecocks were just terrible. Northwestern likewise got a big upset of Stanford, but it’s possible the Cardinal have simply regressed to also-ran status. Alabama defeated a ranked opponent in Wisconsin, but no partial observers thought the Badgers were actually on the Crimson Tide’s level.

Week One is tough. It’s easy to overreact to performances good and bad, and any attempt to cobble together a top 25 is laughable at this point. The upcoming week of action should provide a bit more clarity; however, drawing conclusions is still vastly premature until conference play begins in earnest. It’s why I never attempt to make rankings before the end of September.

Week Two promises a great deal more excitement. Programs have begun to grasp the new rules for the Playoff Era – nonconference games against quality teams good, lower-division patsies bad – and started to schedule accordingly. The always entertaining Utah State-Utah rivalry is on Friday (and for those inclined to look for Playoff busters early, keep an eye on Western Kentucky in Thursday’s match with Louisiana Tech).

The weekend begins with a game as interesting as a nonleague contest between unranked teams can possibly be: Oregon State at Michigan, featuring the return of Michigan Man Jim Harbaugh and the big-stage debut of new Beavers coach Gary Andersen. Later in the day in-state counterparts Oregon and Michigan State will meet in East Lansing for a rematch of last season’s barnburner in Eugene, but before that primetime matchup there’s a few nice footbally nuggets to be had.

The Battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy is one of the Midwest’s more fun rivalries, and as neither Iowa nor Iowa State figure to be very good this season the game will allow viewers to check both teams off their college football Bingo watch list. A potentially sneaky-good tilt is in the works in Berkeley, where rapidly improving Cal hosts one of the Mountain West’s contenders in San Diego State. Oklahoma and Tennessee are somehow both ranked and playing in Knoxville, LSU is at Mississippi State, and Boise State is visiting BYU in a mid-major clash that has become deliciously contentious in recent years. Good contests abound.

Playoff Poll

As I’ve said, it makes little sense at this juncture to try to predict who will be in the playoff. Of course, that doesn’t stop the media from doing so, which means I might as well form some rough groupings of where teams stand right now.

First Tier

Ohio State

Alabama

Georgia

Clemson

TCU

I’m giving TCU the benefit of the doubt, because there’s a slight chance Minnesota might be good.

Second Tier

Baylor

Oregon

USC

Michigan State

Auburn

The winner of Oregon – MSU this week will vault into the top tier, if not the top spot overall.

Third Tier

Notre Dame

Georgia Tech

Florida State

We’ll see. Not a lot to go on yet. LSU gets left out after the Tigers’ opener was cancelled due to inclement weather.

Pac-12 Report

Ye gods. Well, so much for the Pac-12 challenging the SEC for conference supremacy. Utah got the season started out right by dominating Michigan on Thursday night (the final score was misleading; the Utes controlled from start to finish). From there, it was pretty much disaster after disaster. Arizona looked average pulling away from Texas-San Antonio. Colorado saw its faint bowl hopes go up in flames in Week One, falling to Hawai’i.

Oregon State defeated Weber State on Friday, but the Beavers clearly won’t be a factor in the Pac-12. OSU struggled for three quarters to put the Wildcats away. Washington was actually slightly more promising in defeat against Boise State. Still, that result said a lot more about Boise State (read: overrated) than it did about UW’s chances this season.

Then came the Saturday massacre. Stanford was back to doing Stanford things, such as giving its best effort to embarrass the league by losing a nonconference game with a piddling offensive performance. Washington State lost at home to FCS foe Portland State, probably knocking the Cougars from reasonable bowl contention. Oregon’s defense looked horrendous versus another Big Sky team in Eastern Washington, but at least the Ducks won. That’s more than Arizona State could say, as the Sun Devils dropped in a vintage ASU primetime choke job against Texas A&M. I thought we were past this, ASU! You turned the corner!

UCLA looked good against one of the worst teams in the Power Five conferences in Virginia, which means nothing. USC was excellent against Arkansas State, but that’s hardly something to crow about. Cal put in a nice offensive effort against Grambling… but it was Grambling.

As we stand now, USC looks like the clear favorite in the South, with UCLA the Trojans’ chief competitor. Oregon should win the North in a landslide unless Stanford shapes up in a hurry. At this rate, no team in the league will be good enough to seriously compete in the Playoff. Fortunately, there’s three months left to play, so between now and the start of December at least one squad should show sufficient growth to be included.

Utah State at Utah should be fun this Friday, even if the Utes’ continued evolution has made this rivalry somewhat one-sided. I expect Michigan to handle Oregon State with relative ease, but Washington and Colorado should be able to get into the “W” column with games against Sacramento State and Massachusetts, respectively.

Washington State has a chance for redemption against Rutgers, while Cal and Arizona face off against a pair of Mountain West squads (San Diego State, Nevada). USC and UCLA each get another meaningless tune-up (Idaho, UNLV) and Stanford has a now-intriguing home opener with UCF. Then there’s Oregon at Michigan State.

MSU had the Ducks on the ropes last year, and with Vernon Adams now behind center it’s easy to assume the Spartans have the upper hand. It’s a tough call and a game that could be won be either team, which usually makes home-field advantage that much more important. Still… MSU typically struggles in these big games. Forced to choose, I’ll go with UO; the Spartans have to prove they can knock off an elite team.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Please don’t make anything of Ohio State’s win over Virginia Tech. The Hokies are afforded a tremendous amount of clout for some reason, which is curious given just how bad this team has been the past few years. Season records for Tech since 2011: 7-6. 8-5, 7-6. Ohio State just beat an unranked team. It’s not impressive at all. TCU’s win over Minnesota carries more weight, and it remains to be seen whether the Gophers are any good whatsoever.

The Oregon – Michigan State game promises to be very exciting, but it’s a contest that might not mean as much at season’s end as it will in the short term. If Oregon wins the Pac-12 again, the Ducks will be in the playoff, regardless of the outcome this week. MSU could lose to Ohio State and make a case it deserves to be included with a win over UO, but the Big Ten is viewed so poorly it’s hard to see it happening. The Spartans are going to have to beat OSU.

2015 Stanzi Awards

After last season’s thrilling Stanzi race, will 2015 be able to live up to the award’s rich history? I’m optimistic, as quarterbacks tend to always find new ways to amaze us with their poor decision-making and flair for the inopportune play. As a reminder, here are the rules for all the hopeful signal-callers across the nation:

1) Only QB’s are eligible

2) The QB must have multiple turnovers

3) The game must be close (defined as within two possessions)

4) The QB’s team must win the game

So let’s get things started! Here are the Week One winners, including a #doublestanzi in the first week of the year and old standby Dane Evans of Tulsa:

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn

Opponent: Louisville

Performance: Three INT, won by seven

Dane Evans, Tulsa

Opponent: Florida Atlantic

Performance: Two INT, won by three in overtime

Cody Clements, South Alabama

Opponent: Gardner-Webb

Performance: Two INT, won by 10

Max Wittek, Hawai’i

Opponent: Colorado

Performance: Two INT, won by eight

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT:

Michael Birdsong, Marshall

Opponent: Purdue

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 10

Austin Appleby, Purdue

Opponent: Marshall

Performance: Four INT (two for TD), lost by 10

That’s it for Week One. Return next week, when we’ll have results from games that start to have significance.

Left Coast Bias

Onward to the Pac-12, the realm of football with which I am most comfortable. I love the Pac-12, as I loved the Pac-10 before it. The setup of geographically rivalled pairs is unequalled in the country, the locales are beautiful, and the on-field product has improved dramatically in the past five years. After years of Oregon and Stanford’s mighty rule, will the league finally see a new champion in 2015? Read on to find out.

Although the Pac-12 hasn’t had a national champion since 2004, that matters less than once did now that we're in the playoff era. The conference has respect now, as national analysts have said since last season that the Pac-12 and SEC are on essentially equal footing. The SEC’s top is still better, but the Pac-12 has a stronger middle class, and with one more strong push (or another slight slip from the SEC) the west coast’s only major league could assume the title of Nation’s Toughest Conference.

As usual, I’ve mapped out the season for each team, picking guaranteed (such as they exist) wins and losses to determine the ceiling and floor for each school. The remainder of contests form the “swing games,” in which a team will make or break its season. In 2013, every school fell into my predicted ranges. Last year, I missed two: Utah and Cal both finished one game ahead of my ceiling (5-7 for the Golden Bears, 8-4 for the Utes). I widened my ranges this season to better account for the unpredictability of the sport, but I have once again made concrete record predictions.

North Division

California

Floor: 3-9

Ceiling: 11-1

Swing games: at Texas, at Washington, Washington State, at Utah, at UCLA, USC, at Oregon, at Stanford, Arizona State

Cal is a real enigma this year. The Golden Bears have a lot of talent returning on offense and a lot of starters overall coming back (17 overall, nine on offense, eight on defense). Jared Goff is a good young quarterback who already ranks third all-time on the Cal passing yards list. He should blow away the career record this season in a triumphant follow-up to his 3,973-yard performance last year, which included a fantastic 37:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Joining him will be most of the offense from 2014 sans receiver Chris Harper, who should be easily replaceable in this system.

But oh, the defense. Cal fielded one of the worst units in the nation during Sonny Dykes’ first season, and it didn’t get much better last year. The Bears gave up nearly 40 points and more than 500 yards per game, which simply isn’t going to get it done. It doesn’t matter if a team returns a ton of starters if those starters aren’t good. I like this Cal team and wanted them to reach the postseason last year (it just missed out with a 35-42 loss to BYU in the finale). The Bears should be able to do it this season, but I can’t see much more than that unless the defense makes a drastic leap forward.

Oregon

Floor: 6-6

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: at Michigan State, Utah, at Arizona State, California, at Stanford, USC

What to make of the Ducks? Well, even with the loss of RB Thomas Tyner, Oregon returns an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions. Bralon Addison’s comeback from knee surgery, an injury that may have cost the Ducks a national championship, should ease the growing pains of new QB Vernon Adams. After a year of tremendous turmoil on the offensive line, UO should actually be better off. If Adams is the player for Oregon he was at Eastern Washington, this team could be very, very good.

There are concerns, though. Enough talent was lost from the defense that this isn’t exactly plug-and-play, which makes that Week Two visit to East Lansing pretty iffy. Oregon tends to rotate a lot of guys defensively, but how sharp will the team be on the road against a top-five opponent after just one tune-up? The Pac-12 is also no cakewalk, and even though the Ducks have only lost three conference games in four years there’s always a chance this could be the season the train finally gets slowed. We’ll see.

Oregon State

Floor: 2-10

Ceiling: 6-6

Swing games: San Jose State, at Washington State, Colorado, Washington

I don’t see much room for optimism in year one of the Gary Andersen era. Mike Riley didn’t exactly leave the cupboard empty, but transitioning coaches is always tough, especially when going from a pro-style offense to a spread. To make matters worse, the Beavers will be splitting time at QB between a redshirt freshman and a true freshman, which is almost never a recipe for success.

There are pieces here and there. Victor Bolden could be a nice playmaker in this system, as the speedy, undersized WR OSU has always loved. The O-line is talented and should finally help the Beavs end their ugly streak without a 1,000-yard rusher. But my goodness, this team is young. There are so many underclassmen littered throughout the two-deep, and the schedule does this squad no favors. How about a trip to the Big House in Week Two? Maybe hosting Stanford in the Pac-12 opener (after Stanford plays USC, no less)? This season could get grounded before it even begins.

Stanford

Floor: 4-8

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: at Northwestern, UCF, at USC, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, California, Notre Dame

Ah, Stanford. Bane of my attempt to make reasonable predictions. Last year was finally the season when the Cardinal took a step back. It’s a minor miracle it didn’t happen sooner, but somehow this team was able to weather the complete lack of a competent passer for the better part of three seasons before falling off. Kevin Hogan is back at QB yet again, and this is his swan song. Can he improve enough to save this offense from itself? The Cardinal will boast one of the nation’s best O-lines again, but the issue is the skill players. Stanford doesn’t have the backs it did a few seasons ago, and the receivers are decidedly average.

Generally this team leans on the defense to fix things, but it’s pretty tough to see that being the case this season. Just four starters return, including none along the front line. I doubt the Cardinal will repeat as the country’s second-best scoring defense (just 16.4 points per game) while moving on from those players. None of this is to say Stanford won’t be good; I expect quite the opposite. But it’s possible we’ve seen this team’s peak come and go.

Washington

Floor: 1-11

Ceiling: 5-7

Swing games: Utah State, California, at Oregon State, Washington State

I have a bad feeling about the Huskies this season. It seems like it’s going to take Chris Petersen a couple of years to sort things out in the Pac-12, and in the meantime UW fans might want to shield their eyes. There’s no QB. The top returning rusher gained less than 700 yards. The WR corps is middling. The O-line just lost its best player, Dexter Charles, to retirement. The defense returns one guy in the front seven, and Shaq Thompson bolted for the NFL.

Is there reason for hope? Not that I can see. The schedule doesn’t do the Huskies any favors, either, with inter-division road trips to USC and ASU, home visits from the Pac-12 title game teams (Oregon and Arizona) and an away contest on Boise State’s raucous Smurf Turf to start the year. Yikes. The secondary is pretty talented, I suppose. That’s about all the nice things I have to say.

Washington State

Floor: 2-10

Ceiling: 6-6

Swing games: at Rutgers, at California, Oregon State, at Washington

Things need to turn around in a hurry for WSU, which has gone a grand total of 12-25 under Mike Leach in three years. I like Leach a lot, but he’s got to put together a defense capable of stringing together a few stops. The Cougs are already replacing the program’s all-time leading passer in Connor Halliday, so now’s as good a time as any to revamp what works and what doesn’t in this system. First: establish the run as a legitimate threat. It doesn’t matter how well you throw the ball. This team cannot continue to average 40 yards a game on the ground as it has the past three seasons.

Defensively… I don’t know, try? This isn’t the mid-2000’s Big 12. You can’t expect to outscore everyone. The Pac-12 is really, really good; teams won’t let you do that. The Cougs have some playmakers on the outside (River Cracraft, Dom Williams), but it won’t matter if the team rushes for a total of 478 yards again this season and the defense allows another 38 points per game. Step it up, Wazzu. 

South

Arizona

Floor: 7-5

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: UCLA, at Stanford, at USC, Utah, at Arizona State

The Wildcats get a pretty generous schedule in their victory lap from 2014’s South title. I have them down for three wins without breaking a sweat. UCLA and Stanford are the first two conference tilts, but after that ‘Zona has a cakewalk all the way to the Nov. 7 showdown with USC. The back-loaded schedule will probably allow this squad to build up a nice ranking before the big boys show up.

Of course, it’s possible Arizona is one of the big boys now. QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson are both back, along with most of the talented receiving corps that got the ‘Cats all the way to the Pac-12 title game. I think a slip is likely, given the losses in the secondary, but UA does get back LB Scooby Wright. It will really all come down to the November games, as road trips to USC and rival USC are sandwiched around a home date with Utah.

Arizona State

Floor: 5-7

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: Texas A&M (in Arlington), USC, at UCLA, at Utah, Oregon, Arizona, at California

I’m high on the Sun Devils right now. I think the defense, which was surprising last year and returns nine starters, will be improved. ASU should have been undefeated going into the finale with rival Arizona last year, but a bizarre meltdown versus UCLA and a fluky loss at Oregon State hampered this team. Now is the time for this program to finally show what it can do on the big stage. The schedule starts with a bang against Texas A&M in Arlington, but ASU has no more excuses left.

Mike Bercovici proved to be a quality passer during his time in relief last season, so he’s really more like a returning starter. The Sun Devils did lose a big-time WR in Jaelen Strong, but the rest of the backs and receivers return. I expect the same kind of offensive production we’ve come to expect from this team under Todd Graham, and if the defense makes any kind of a leap, ASU could be in for a special year.

Colorado

Floor: 2-11

Ceiling: 6-7

The Buffaloes continue to play 13-game seasons, which baffles me. You do know you have to win seven games to make a bowl that way, right? No matter. CU won’t be returning to the postseason yet anyway. That’s a shame, because the team has improved a fair amount from the nadir of 2012’s 1-11 campaign. The Buffs will almost certainly start 4-0, which is really going to make things heartbreaking if they go 0-9 from there. Which is highly possible.

After opening with some traditional cupcakes, Colorado gets Oregon, ASU and Arizona before its next reasonable shot at a win (OSU, though the game is in Corvallis). Then it’s off to play UCLA, Stanford and USC before the final chance for a win, at Wazzu. The Buffs will not beat Utah in their finale. So let’s hope QB Sefo Liufau, who is pretty good, can lead his squad to a couple of tough road victories in the Pac-12. He does get WR Nelson Spruce back, which is huge, and the defense… can’t get any worse. So there’s a glimmer of hope.

UCLA

Floor: 6-6

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: at Arizona, ASU, at Stanford, California, at Utah, at USC

UCLA gets a ton of guys back, but the most important one is a mystery. Josh Rosen, a true freshman, was named the Bruins’ starting QB last week. It’s nice that so many people are throwing such high praise at the kid, but let’s see him in action before anointing him. UCLA also has the same issue a lot of teams with a great deal of returning starters seem to have: their skill players don’t scare anyone. UCLA does miss Oregon, which will help.

Again, though, I’m not sure why people are downplaying the losses this team suffered. Eric Kendricks was UCLA’s best defensive player last season, better than LB mate Myles Jack, and it wasn’t close. He’s gone, along with a highly talented DE in Owamagbe Odighizuwa. UCLA can't simply throw anyone in there to replace those players, who were all-conference talents. The Bruins will still be very good, but they’re not winning the South.

USC

Floor: 4-8

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: Stanford, at ASU, at Notre Dame, Utah, at California, Arizona, at Oregon, UCLA

I like USC a lot. Cody Kessler gives you pretty much everything you could want in a college QB, the skill players are the typical high school all-Americans, the line is big and nasty and the defense… is pretty good. No offense to the wealth of talent on that side of the ball, but this IS the unofficial college team of Hollywood. There’s enough here to win the conference and challenge anyone in the country in the playoff.

However, there are hangups. Talented though the new defensive starters might be, SC is going to have a little trouble replacing  DE Leonard Williams and LB Su’a Cravens. The schedule is unforgiving, with an October trip to rival Notre Dame, a late-season cross-divisional draw of Oregon (in Eugene, no less) and the usual Stanford/UCLA matchups. Something has to give here, and I don’t see the Trojans going undefeated.

Utah

Floor: 5-7

Ceiling: 12-0

Swing games: Michigan, at Oregon, California, ASU, at USC, at Arizona, UCLA

Utah is in an interesting spot in 2015. The Utes basically broke through last season, knocking off UCLA and USC and holding a lead on Oregon before a disastrous turnover swung that game around. Yet the team still finished 8-4 and just better than .500 in conference play, relegated to also-ran status. It’s unfair, because Utah has improved tremendously since joining the Pac-12, but it shows how much of a gap there is between the major and mid-major leagues. The next step is to actually win the South, but unfortunately the division seems to have collectively all gotten much better at the same time.

The Utes still have QB Travis Wilson, who delivered on his considerable promise in 2014 and will be one of the conference’s many passers vying for honors this year. I like RB Devontae Booker, and Utah still boasts one of the better collections of linemen in the conference. It’s just hard to see where the extra wins will come from and how this team can make a leap. There’s probably not enough on this roster yet to do that.

Those are my general feelings on each team. All that’s left is my actual picks, which I present now:

2014 Pac-12 final standings prediction

North

Oregon: 11-1 overall, 8-1 Pac-12

Stanford: 9-3, 6-3

Cal: 6-6, 3-6

Washington State: 5-7, 3-6

Oregon State: 4-8, 2-7

Washington: 2-10, 0-9

South

USC: 11-1, 8-1

Arizona State: 11-1, 8-1

UCLA: 10-2, 7-2

Utah: 8-4, 5-4

Arizona: 7-5, 4-5

Colorado: 4-9, 0-9

Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon over USC

All that’s left is to play. See you on Saturday.