And we’re back! The 2015 College Football season
carries a sense of the unknown like few before it. The Playoff is securely in
place. The last two superstars of the old era (Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota)
have departed. And aside from a certain team in central Ohio, the field looks
as open as it ever has.
Every season there are roughly a dozen teams that will reasonably compete for the national championship. 2014 was an exception,
as most analysts assumed Braxton Miller’s preseason injury would keep Ohio
State out of the CFP. It was only by a highly unusual twist – the Buckeyes
getting all-star play out of not one but TWO backups – that OSU went on to win
the title, and even that result was aided tremendously by several other factors
across the country (most notably, TCU’s slipup against Baylor).
2015 appears to once again have the requisite 10-15
legitimate championship contenders. After going over every power conference
team’s depth chart and schedule, I selected the ones I thought fell into the
“true contender” category, and unsurprisingly, they numbered 12. No Power 5
league had fewer than two, which bodes well for balance in the title race
nationally. I prefer to separate these squads into two groups for the purposes
of my preview: Genuine top-class elite teams and potentially-good-enough ones
that will need a little help to reach the ultimate prize.
Group A
Alabama
We start again with the Crimson Tide, who will
reload yet again thanks to another in a seemingly endless line of brilliant
recruiting classes. Bama has to replace the tremendous Blake Sims (perhaps the
first Tide quarterback in a generation with a personality) along with its top
three receivers, which very nearly bumped the team down into the second
grouping. However, the return of seven starters on defense along with the
addition of a staggering nine recruits (nine!) ranked in the top 10 at their
respective positions means that Bama will be a favorite once more to reach the College
Football Playoff.
Georgia
I’ve ragged on Georgia fairly extensively in the
past, but this time around I like the Bulldogs. Yes, Todd Gurley is gone, but
he was hurt half the time anyway, and Nick Chubb is a more than suitable
replacement at running back. UGA gets 13 starters back, but the big question is
at QB. Solve that issue and this team will be off and rolling; despite road
games at Auburn and rival Georgia Tech, the slate is pretty favorable. Thanks
to the Jacksonville site versus Florida, the Bulldogs play only three SEC road
contests, two of which are Tennessee and Vandy. A return to Atlanta seems
likely.
Ohio State
Look upon OSU and tremble, mere mortals. With all
three of their QB’s back plus 13 additional starters, the Buckeyes would already
be a terrifying force if they didn’t play in the average Big Ten. Unfortunately
for the rest of the college football world, they do, which provides the double
bonus of ensuring a nice and easy path to the playoff and a significantly more
rested team once they make it there. Look at this schedule. Who on earth is
going to challenge this team? Michigan State is the only remotely well-equipped
foe on the docket, and the Spartans have to come to Columbus. There’s a reason
OSU is the prohibitive favorite to win it all.
Michigan State
MSU is in an interesting spot going into 2015. Sure,
14 starters return, including the linchpins of both the offense (QB Connor
Cook) and defense (DE Shilique Calhoun). And it’s true that, even with the loss
of their top three rushers, the Spartans will probably piece together a
respectable ground game. But I’m just not sure this team is any better than
last year’s edition, which bowed out in the second half to Oregon and Ohio
State (to be fair, the two teams that played for the title). Both opponents are
on the schedule again, which means it’s probably another year of playing
runner-up for MSU. Still… get past the Ducks, and catch the Buckeyes on an off
day, and it’s clear sailing to the playoff. The rest of the Big Ten stands no
chance.
TCU
Whoo boy, does TCU have the potential to be
scary-good. The Horned Frogs return 10 starters on offense (15 overall),
including my top preseason Heisman candidate in QB Trevone Boykin, who made the
leap to god tier status last year. This will probably be the nation’s best
offense, which, as we saw last year, makes for a rather terrifying combination
when matched with TCU’s traditionally monstrous defense. Oh… and they get
Baylor at home. The days of the Horned Frogs holding teams to less than 14
points a game might be done, but with how far the offense has come it doesn’t
really matter. I see this team winning the Big 12 and making the playoff this
season.
Group B
Auburn
What makes Auburn dangerous isn’t the number or
quality of its returning starters. The Tigers have just 12 and will be breaking
in a new signal-caller to boot. There’s plenty of talent on the defense and in
the trenches, of course, but that’s par for the course on the Plains. No,
Auburn’s biggest advantage in 2015 is the schedule. The Tigers kick things off
with a high-profile (but probably pretty easy) neutral-site game with
Louisville in Atlanta, then get to host Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss. Wow. A
lot would have to go this squad’s way to make the playoff, but we’ve seen that
happen twice in the last decade. Don’t ever count Auburn out.
Baylor
The Bears were a meltdown in Morgantown away from a
berth in the CFP, though they salted away some of the goodwill from their
charmed season with that late collapse in the Cotton Bowl. Baylor now has
back-to-back championship-caliber seasons that have ended with bowl
embarrassment, which has to be corrected. With the team breaking in a semi-new
QB in Seth Russell, I can’t rely on them to win the conference without a little
help, and at some point the average defense is going to need to be addressed to
view Baylor as a true contender. Still, the Bears remain eminently dangerous
and could challenge for a playoff berth if everything breaks right.
Clemson
Clemson is the fringiest of fringe candidates on
this list, but hear me out. The 10 returning starters are an issue, but Deshaun
Watson is a tremendous talent and the ACC isn’t exactly a murderer’s row. The
thing is, Clemson actually has the schedule to impress people despite that; drawing
Miami (FL) and Georgia Tech out of the Coastal is a boon (provided they go down
as wins), while the Tigers also get Notre Dame in the non-conference and host
Florida State. To be sure, it’s a long shot, but that throttling of Oklahoma in
the Russell Athletic Bowl only served to increase expectations.
Florida State
The shoe is on the other foot for the Seminoles, who
will replace Jameis Winston with Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson. Laugh if
you must, but Golson did show flashes of being a great college QB with the
Irish, so if he can just keep his turnovers down – something that spiraled out
of control quickly in 2014 – FSU should be fine against another paper-thin ACC.
Outside of the late visit to Clemson (and perhaps the trip to Georgia Tech)
there’s no team on the schedule remotely capable of hanging with the talent in
Tallahassee. The return of RB Dalvin Cook is a big deal, while getting back
five of the top six tacklers from last season won’t hurt.
LSU
The Tigers, as usual, have to be included in the
conversation, though it annoys me to no end. Leonard Fournette did come on at
the end of last season, and apart from a couple easily replaced linemen the
offense essentially returns intact. The defense will be its traditionally stingy
self, as LSU brings better athletes to the defensive side than just about
anyone in the nation not named Alabama. But I still can’t take this squad
seriously until it finds an above-average QB. Do you know how many times in the
last decade LSU has thrown for 3,000 yards as a team? Three, including Zach
Mettenberger’s performance in 2013 and the immortal Jamarcus Russell in 2006. This
program desperately needs a top-flight QB to get over the hump, and there’s not
one on this roster.
Oregon
The general consensus (shared by myself) on Oregon
is that the Ducks will be a high-quality outfit again this year, but unable to
reach the heights of the previous campaign. It’s not hard to see why; even a
very capable replacement like Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams will
have a tough time replicating Marcus Mariota’s value to this team. The
schedule is rough, with a nonconference visit to Michigan State and Pac-12
showdowns with Utah, USC, at Stanford and at Arizona. It would be completely reasonable
for UO to drop the MSU game, lose one league tilt and finish a respectable 10-2…
that is, unless Adams is as good as people think. He might very well be, but we’ll
have to wait and see.
USC
Unsurprisingly, USC is getting a lot of hype as a
potential CFP entrant. Whenever the Trojans have any kind of chance at a
quality year, the media tends to hop on the bandwagon. This time around, at
least, the optimism is warranted (unlike in, say, 2012). Cody Kessler is the
real deal, while the SC offensive line returns all five starters and the team overall
is as talented as usual. Several young players who saw spot duty last season
seem poised to break out in 2015, such as receiver Juju Smith and WR/DB Adoree’
Jackson. And yet… I have a hard time taking the Trojans seriously as a title
contender. The schedule is brutal, with three road games (Arizona State, Notre
Dame, Oregon) AND three home games (Utah, UCLA, Stanford) that could all prove
to be SC’s undoing. I don’t see it happening.
It’s a short list of championship contenders, but I
feel confident our winner will emerge from one of those two groups. Now on to
the conference previews, in which I note the sleeper teams and important
players to watch, analyze the schedule, and pick the division and league
champs.
AAC
Projected Champion: UCF Temple Cincinnati
over Navy Memphis
It’s an unfortunate place to have to start, but I’ll
do what I can. The Zombie Big East – or ZBE, as I may refer to it in the future
– has become a bewildering hodge-podge of castoff schools (Temple, East
Carolina, Tulsa, Tulane), old guard programs (SMU, Houston, Navy), basketball
schools (Cincinnati, Memphis, UConn) and new bloods (Central Florida, South
Florida). The conference stretches from Texas in the west to Ohio and
Pennsylvania in the north to Florida in the southeast. There’s not a single
true power in the league, play styles range from ultra-futuristic (ECU,
Houston) to prehistoric (Navy), and no one has any clue who plays in what
division.
Yet the AAC remains eminently watchable, for both
its predictable unpredictability and its parity. No other league has as many
legitimate contenders to take its crown, which should give the new AAC title
game as extra boost of flair. Yes, Navy has broken its century-plus exile in
independence to wreak havoc with the triple-option in a conference, and in
doing so given the ZBE the requisite dozen members needed* to hold a conference
championship game. Imagine the possibilities!
*A rule the NCAA just changed to benefit the
shortsightedness of the Big 12
The West Division will be a three-team race between
defending co-champion Memphis, Houston and Navy. I’m inclined to side with the
Midshipmen and QB Keenan Reynolds, but I fear that’s probably my
flexbone bias showing. The Cougars need to upgrade 2014’s surprisingly anemic
passing production. In all likelihood, the Tigers will manage to scrape by due
to the return of the majority of 2014’s offensive production.
In the East, it’s another trio of contenders –
Cincinnati, UCF and Temple – who will battle for supremacy. Temple has the
highest sleeper potential, as the Owls return 19 starters and should be
formidable defensively. UCF reloaded impressively last season and probably
should have won the league, while Cincy gets back its QB and top six receivers
from a very strong passing attack. In the end, I’ll go with the Bearcats to win
the East and the conference.
ACC
Projected Champion: Clemson over Georgia Tech
After watching FSU dominate the league for two
seasons, the ACC is back on more equal footing. No, this conference still isn’t
very good – it’s unquestionably the weakest of the Power 5 – but there’s enough
quality now to at least make the first two-thirds of the season worth keeping
an eye on. The expansion to 14 teams really didn’t add much, but fortunately it
hasn’t watered the product down any more.
Clemson is the trendy pick to take the title this
season and for good reason: the Tigers boast the ACC’s best QB in Deshaun
Watson. If the talented sophomore can stay on the field, he’ll be an
all-American and Heisman candidate. Joining Watson is a whole host of skill
position talent that should be able to cover (relatively) for the reshuffling
of the O-line and a lot of new starters on defense. Florida State figures to
take a step back in the post-Winston era, while Louisville is probably still a
year away. Nobody else in the Atlantic is a threat.
The Coastal is more wide open, with a varied
triumvirate of teams ready to fight for the right to lose to the Tigers.
Virginia Tech is viewed quite favorably right now, but as with LSU, I can’t
take this team seriously until it finds a competent passer. The QB play in
Blacksburg has been abysmal for years and even 16 returning starters can’t make
up for that. Miami (FL) gets both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home, and
QB Brad Kaaya should build on his promising frosh campaign. However, the ‘Canes
lose too much at RB and WR to be a true contender. Georgia Tech faces a nasty
slate, drawing FSU and Clemson from the Atlantic Division and Georgia and Notre
Dame in nonleague action, but the Yellow Jackets have the defensive chops to
hang with teams and a QB in Justin Thomas who should rank among the most
efficient in the nation. I’ll take the Yellow Jackets to win the Coastal.
Big Ten
Projected Champion: Ohio State over Wisconsin
This is probably going to be a repeat, right down to
the beating we saw in Indianapolis. There simply isn’t enough quality in the
Big Ten right now to challenge the few elite teams. Ohio State will run
roughshod over the entire league, Michigan State notwithstanding. The Spartans
will likely pose a nice test for the Buckeyes, but in the end that’s all that
will matter in the East Division. No. Stop. Michigan and Penn State are not ready.
Expectations for those schools need to be tempered.
The West will at least be a competitive race, with
front-runners Nebraska and Wisconsin seeing challenges from Minnesota and darkhorse
Northwestern. I still doubt Mike Riley will be able to get things going quickly
enough in his first season in Lincoln to really make a push for the division,
so the returning talent of the Badgers will probably be enough to take the
West.
Roughly half of the Big Ten is objectively bad,
which really hurts the perception of the league nationwide. While expansion was
undoubtedly good for revenue purposes, it served no purpose for football, and
as a result the conference faces a crisis of quality the likes of which are
rather unprecedented. Ohio State can win as many championships as it wants; the
Big Ten needs to perform in nonconference action this fall to prove it isn’t
just the Buckeyes’ punching bag.
Big 12
Projected Champion: TCU
I waxed poetic about TCU earlier, so I don’t think a
recap is really necessary. Rest assured, the Horned Frogs will be very, very
good. I think the defense will actually surprise some people who expect TCU to
be worse on that side this season. That train of thought points to the 19.0
points per game the Horned Frogs allowed in 2014 (down from 25.6 the previous
year and 20+ the two season prior) and assumes the defense got significantly
better in a fluky way. That’s actually not true – TCU allowed roughly the same
amount of yards per game and opposing completion percentage that it had in each
of the past five years. The only thing that changed was a slight decrease in
points allowed, which is a lot more random than fans seem to realize. With the
offense once again forcing foes into passing situations, the success on the
defensive side should continue.
Baylor is the prohibitive favorite to upend the
Horned Frogs, but I still can’t put my faith into the Bears until they prove
they can play a little D. This program has reached unheard-of heights, but hasn’t
been able to summit the mountain because of what happens in the contests when
the offense stalls out. Oklahoma might actually be a sleeper given how most
prognosticators have given up on the Sooners, though it’s hard to trust a team
after so many disappointments. OU will get no love until it shows real
improvement on the field.
Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas form a decent
middle of the conference, but none is a legit contender. West Virginia and
Texas Tech are facing make-or-break years, as both programs have flamed out in
the face of actual quality competition on a week-to-week basis. Kansas and Iowa
State make up the awful floor of the Big 12, with Kansas in particular looking
like potentially the worst team in the Power 5.
Conference USA
Projected Champion: Western Kentucky over Louisiana
Tech
I waffled on the winner of the CUSA Championship
game, but not the participants. WKU and LTU are the clear choices in this odd
transitional year for the league, which will play without UAB for two seasons
after the Blazers terminated, then reinstated their program. For now,
Conference USA will exist with 13 members, thanks to the addition of
UNC-Charlotte. Realignment has been really weird, folks.
WKU is the pick to take the East simply because
there is no other choice. Defending champion Marshall lost an all-timer in QB
Rakeem Cato and there isn’t another squad in the division with comparable
talent. The Hilltoppers have a ton coming back, including nine defensive
starters, but the headliners are on offense. QB Brandon Doughty is back, along
with all 4,830 of his passing yards and 49 passing TD’s. He’s joined by five of
his top seven receivers, plus 2,000 yards rushing in the form of RB’s Leon
Allen and Anthony Wales. Long story short: this is going to be fun.
The West is a two-team race in my estimation, as
upstart Rice attempts to topple defending division champ LTU. These two schools
each have one division title the past two season and shouldn’t face too much of
a challenge from the likes of UTEP and North Texas. The Owls have the edge at
QB, with Driphus Jackson a significantly more reliable option than the Bulldogs’
Florida transfer Jeff Driskel. However, Rice returns little else, especially on
the defensive side, whereas Tech has 13 total starters back.
MAC
Projected Champion: Northern Illinois over Bowling
Green
Some things just become ingrained in American life.
In MAC country, it’s NIU winning the West Division. The Huskies have done it five
straight seasons, with a host of different QB’s and different head coaches. This year,
NIU faces one of its stiffest threats yet, in the form of Toledo. I’ve liked
the Rockets for some time and even picked them to upset the Huskies once or
twice, but NIU hasn’t gone down in more than five years.
This season could be different. Toledo flat-out gave
last season’s game away, which cost the Rockets a shot at the MAC crown. That has
to sting and serve as motivation for this year’s matchup, which will be at the
Glass Bowl. Yet I can’t bring myself to pick Toledo this time around. I’ve been
burned too often picking against the obvious choice in this conference, which
NIU rules with an iron fist (at least, during the regular season).
The East is pretty simple as well. Bowling Green,
winner of the past two division titles, should have enough to return to
Detroit. The 2015 Falcons have depth at QB, a position that saw several injuries
as the team tried to defend its MAC title a year ago. The defense should be
much improved after last season’s disastrous finish, which saw the team allow
more points per game than it had in the previous two seasons combined. Finally,
the Falcons get Akron (their biggest competitor) at home.
Mountain West
Projected Champion: Boise State over San Diego State
The MWC will duel with the AAC again for the title
of “Best Group of 5 Conference.” I’d say the AAC is stronger in the middle, but
the Mountain West is better at the top. Did you know there were four 10-win
teams in the Mountain Division alone in 2014? The league probably won’t see
that kind of success again this year, but the improved West should make
interdivisional play much more interesting.
Of course, as the college football world changes, so
too does it stay the same. Barring a tremendous collapse, Boise State will win
the Mountain and the conference. There’s simply too much talent in Boise to
think otherwise. The Broncos return 17 starters from the squad that held off
Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl, and though they need a new QB and RB, it’s hard to
imagine them not taking the division. Utah State poses the largest threat if QB
Chuckie Keeton can manage to stay healthy for a whole year, but he’s sadly been
unable to do so since 2012 (when the Aggies went 11-2).
The West is more wide open, with San Diego State,
Fresno State and Nevada vying for a spot in the MWC title game. I like the Aztecs,
with their strong defense (eight returning starters) and cupboard full of skill
position talent. Plus, they get AMAZING new uniforms this season. It’s meant to
be! Nevada has to replace one of the best signal-callers in program history in
Cody Fajardo, which to me indicates the Wolf Pack need a year to put things
together. Fresno is intriguing, as the Bulldogs return a mishmash of parts from
the team that gave Boise not one but two scares last season… but I’ll still go
with the Aztecs.
SEC
Projected Champion: Georgia over Auburn
Oh, this feels weird. I’m not sure how long it’s been
since I picked someone other than Alabama to win the division, much less the
conference. Yet here we are. ‘Bama under Nick Saban has seemingly been able to
get above-average QB play from anyone off the street… but now they’re in for a
new test. The Crimson Tide have never had to replace their QB at the same time
they replaced essentially the rest of the offense. Sure, the defense will be
great, but we’ve seen a shift in this league the past couple of seasons that
indicates you can’t just win on defense alone anymore.
So who wins the West? As I said earlier, LSU once
again has everything necessary to make a run except a competent QB. The Tigers
are as talented as anyone but a question mark at the most important position
(though they do have a favorable schedule). I’m not buying the Mississippi
schools (I think last year was a fluke) and Arkansas, while good, shouldn’t
quite have the ability to topple the big boys just yet. So that leaves Auburn,
a team I see as maybe the third- or fourth-most talented in the division, but the
one with the best schedule. More importantly, Gus Malzahn has proved to be a
savant at getting the most out of his middling QB’s.
As for the East, well, the East also exists. Georgia
is the pick sort of by default, though that’s not really fair to the Bulldogs.
This is a very good team; Nick Chubb is a worthy successor to Todd Gurley at
RB, the O-line is solid, and the defense should be pretty decent as usual.
Tennessee has been getting a lot of press, and for good reason: 18 returning
starters (including 10 on offense) will do that for you. My issue with that
metric is that it matters less if those players aren’t stars. Sure, the
Volunteers get back virtually every WR and RB from 2014. The problem is that
none of those guys are very good. The same applies to the defense, which is
experience but wasn’t anywhere near elite last season.
I doubt Florida will make much of a run in Jim McElwain’s first year, so the final
contender is two-time defending East winner Missouri. I like the Tigers, but
they lose a lot of quality skill talent and were throttled by the “true”
division winner at home versus Georgia last season 34-0. The big thing going in
the Tigers favor is the schedule – Mizzou draws the West doormats and plays its
first two real conference games (excluding Kentucky, of course) at home.
Sun Belt
Projected Champion: Georgia Southern
The Sun Belt, the forgotten league of the FBS, had
one of the most exciting storylines in football last season that no one cared
about. Georgia Southern, a perennial FCS power that upset Florida to end the
2013 season, entered the higher division and proceeded to lay waste to its
enemies, scoring nearly 40 points per game while going 8-0 against its new
conference. The Eagles nearly upset North Carolina State and Georgia Tech, only
to be denied a waiver to play in a bowl because of the NCAA’s transitional year
rules.
This year, the Eagles are back and ready to get to
the first bowl in their history, and I think they’ll do it as two-time
defending SBC champs. The top four teams in the league should remain the same:
Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State are
the favorites again, and for good reason. Each one returns a lot of talent. App
State had a rough introduction to FBS football in 2014, starting 1-5, but the
Mountaineers rallied for 6-0 finish that had them looking like the
giant-killers of old. ASU returns an astounding 20 starters – 10 on each side –
to a potential SBC championship squad. Arkansas State has the most dynamic QB
in the conference in Fredi Knighten, and the Red Wolves get back eight starters
around him on offense. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see this team back
on top of the league.
Lafayette returns nine offensive starters from the
team that won nine games and represented the SBC as its unofficial champion in
bowl season, so the Ragin’ Cajuns have a lot left. However, they do lose QB
Terrance Broadway, one of my favorite non-power school players of the past few
years. Georgia Southern is my choice to repeat thanks to eight returning
starters on defense, even though the Eagles lost the majority of the offensive
line that paved the way to nearly 400 yards rushing per game in SBC play. I
think the line will get sorted out enough to make due, allowing the improved
defense to cover for the slip in production.
And there are the conference breakdowns. The next
post will include my full Pac-12 analysis, as we begin the season in just a few
hours.
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