Last Thoughts

National Overview

Rivalry Week provided even more delights than anticipated, turning the long Thanksgiving holiday into a celebration of the best college football has to offer. There was some quality #MACtion in the mid-week, an Apple Cup coronation for Washington, Air Force taking out Boise State for the third straight year and Western Michigan finishing 12-0, all before Saturday!

The excitement continued into the weekend, with a thrilling finish at The Shoe, a nail-biter in Boulder, a huge upset from Kentucky and a plethora of photo-finishes in heated rivalry games. When the dust cleared, we had our division winners, though they didn't arrive without some blood, sweat and tears (and whining. Thanks, Jim Harbaugh).

Friday night marks the first time this season a team can truly lock up a spot in the Playoff, when Washington and Colorado meet in the Pac-12 Championship. If the Huskies win, they're in*. Colorado can still conceivably make the final four, but it would take a lot falling the right way for the Buffaloes. CU can dream, but it's unlikely.

*Provided there are no shenanigans from the Committee

Earlier in the evening, Ohio and Western Michigan will play for the MAC title. Fortunately, just as in the Pac-12, this will be a matchup of teams that didn't play in the regular season. WMU is the heavy favorite for a reason - the Broncos are aiming for 13-0, after all - and should win, but the pressure as the undefeated mid-major looking ahead to major-bowl glory has tripped up several teams in the past.

We kick off Saturday with two official conference championship games, along with another contest that will decide a league title. First, there's the delightful American Championship, pitting a pair of nine-win teams in Temple and Navy in Annapolis. The Midshipmen could complete a marvelous 11-2 campaign with wins here and against rival Army next week, while the Owls are looking to rebound from a loss in the title game last year. Navy is the slight favorite, and though I love this team, I have to pick against it. Temple has the third-best defense in the country behind Alabama and Michigan and should do enough to slow the option to secure the win.

Next, there's Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game. This should be a barnburner after Tech took the first meeting earlier in the year in a 55-52 shootout. Expect more of the same, as both the Bulldogs and Hilltoppers rank in the top 15 nationally in offense. Quarterbacks Mike White (WKU) and Ryan Higgins (LTU) will both top 4,000 yards passing by season's end, and both squads also boast 1,000-yard receivers and running backs. Ultimately, I like Western, playing at home, with a superior defense (a respectable 28th nationally), to prevail.

The Bedlam Game is in Norman this year, with Oklahoma rightly favored to rip off nine straight wins after that 1-2 nonconference performance. Oklahoma State is pretty good, and an upset of the Sooners - along with some Committee sympathy regarding that officiating fiasco in the Central Michigan game - could potentially put the Cowboys in the Playoff. The more likely scenario is OU simply winning out. Oklahoma won't make the CFP without a lot of help, though.

The midday slate should see another squad punch a ticket to the final four, when Alabama meets Florida in the SEC Championship for the second consecutive year. The Gators have a very good defense, but Bama's is better, and this matchup lost a lot of luster with UF's blowout loss to Florida State last week. Florida doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide, who should check another box on the "2016 National Championship Run" to-do list.

It would have been laughable before this season began to suggest the Mountain West title game would be held in Laramie, but that's where the league finds itself after Wyoming knocked off Boise State and San Diego State in the regular season to grab the tiebreaker over the Aztecs. The conference had a terrible day last Saturday, as all three of the aforementioned squads (the best teams in the MWC) lost, including blowouts for SDSU and Wyoming. Even though it's on the road, I like San Diego State to rebound from the loss to the Cowboys a few weeks back and claim back-to-back titles.

Prime time brings the final two games, and possibly the other two Playoff bids, into the spotlight. The ACC Championship should be a mere coronation as Clemson takes on a highly flawed Virginia Tech team. The Big Ten title game is another story. Wisconsin won the weaker division, but played the two best teams in the East, so the schedule difference is moot. The Badgers were clearly the best squad over the first half of the season. Penn State was the better team over the second half, but it remains to be seen how much of that was because of a weak schedule. Wisconsin has the superior defense; PSU, the superior offense. I think the Nittany Lions are more likely to win.

The question is, what does that mean for the Playoff?

Playoff Poll

Things have gotten very interesting.

First Tier

Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Ohio State

Here's the problem with the Big Ten getting two teams in: Ohio State would be bypassing a Power Five champion to do so. Alabama and Clemson are locks with wins this week; Washington is only slightly less so. If OSU is getting in, it should be at the expense of its own conference winner. Anything else would be an outrage.

Second Tier

Penn State
Wisconsin

If the Nittany Lions win, they'll have a better argument for jumping the Buckeyes thanks to their head-to-head triumph. If the Badgers win, their argument is weaker, given that they lost to OSU. Both teams would benefit significantly from a Colorado win Friday.

Third Tier

Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Western Michigan

The Sooners need help. As in, Alabama, Clemson and Washington all losing kind of help. Okie State needs even more. Colorado would have an argument with a win, but only a slim one (that loss to USC was killer). As for WMU, well, we can always dream.

Pac-12 Report

As expected, USC and Stanford won their non-league contests. I predicted Cal would beat UCLA, resulting in a needed coaching change in L.A., but even I didn't expect the 36-10 thrashing the Bears laid on the Bruins. Arizona running all over ASU was also a bit unexpected, but Oregon State knocking off Oregon wasn't.

Fortunately, the two best teams won, so we were at least gifted with a legitimate conference title game. Washington hadn't looked that good against a quality opponent in some time, so good on the Huskies for showing up in a big way just in time for the Committee to take note. Colorado suffered some very noticeable big-game jitters, dropping passes all over the place, fumbling and allowing special-teams breakdowns. In the end, however, the Buffs got a deserved victory to complete the comeback story of the year in college football.

It's worth stating once again what a remarkable turnaround this has been. Colorado won five games (five!) in its first five SEASONS in the Pac-12. Just last year, the Buffaloes went 1-8 in conference play. This season saw CU go a magical 8-1 and vanquish a decades' worth of demons en route to the South title. It's been amazing to watch, and if it doesn't earn Mike MacIntyre national Coach of the Year honors the award means nothing.

I feel it's necessary to reiterate these things because the charmed ride probably comes to an end Friday in Santa Clara. Make no mistake: Colorado is good enough to beat Washington. The secret to the Buffs' success has been their lockdown defense, which was the best in the conference this season, beating out even Washington's (despite coming against a tougher schedule). CU's offense is no joke, either. But after a meltdown against USC and a shaky start with ASU, UW has come roaring back to life.

The Huskies again look like the unquestioned best team in the Pac-12, and after a pair of close, emotionally-charged games at home the past two weeks, Colorado is ripe for a first-quarter reality check. That may not have cost them against a bad offensive team in Utah, but it will against Washington. The Huskies are balanced and explosive offensively, and their superior talent level on the lines will make this game an uphill battle for the Buffs. I can envision scenarios that end in Colorado wins (and what a story that would be!), but the more likely outcome is that Washington will be the Pac-12 champion.

Heisman Watch

D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas

Barring an incredible performance this week, the Heisman should be Foreman's. It's amazing to think Derrick Henry could win the award last year with inferior numbers running behind Alabama's line, while Foreman might not even make the ceremony despite carrying the inept Longhorns with a nation-leading 2,028 yards in just 11 games.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington

Back to his usual efficient, defense-shredding ways, Browing made the Apple Cup a laugher in the first quarter thanks to three quick touchdown passes. He's now just the third QB in Pac-12 history with at least 40 TD's in a season, and another nice performance against Colorado's stout D should earn him a trip to New York.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama

He threw two early picks against Auburn as Bama got off to a slow start, then guided the Crimson Tide to a comfortable 30-12 win over their rival. Hurts has performed at a level far beyond his years this season, but even so, a game like he had last week should have dropped him in the rankings. It would have, if not for...

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

It's a testament to Jackson's prolific numbers that he even remains on the list. No Heisman winner has ever had a two-game stretch to end the season as bad as the one Jackson just had, capped by a four-turnover disaster in the second half to lose to Kentucky at home. This guy is going to win the Heisman? Get out of here.

Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan

With a masterful 19-for-25, three-TD effort in WMU's thrashing of Toledo, Terrell finishes the regular season with 30 TD passes to just one interception. It's inconceivable that the most important player in Broncos history would miss out on the ceremony, but I doubt he'll receive enough late-ballot votes to get there.

Random Thoughts and Observations

How's that nine-game schedule treating you, Big Ten? In the very first year since moving up to an adult schedule, the conference suffered controversy and agony as the third- and fourth-best teams in the league ended up playing for the title. This is what can happen when you ask your schools to actually play the majority of their peers. Who knows what happens if Ohio State doesn't have to travel to West division winner Wisconsin a week before losing at Penn State, or how Michigan fares without that late-season slugest at cross-division foe Iowa? In previous years, such matchups might have been avoided.

The Big 12 has felt the pain of a nine-game conference slate in recent years. In a bit of delicious irony, the league that claimed it didn't need another conference game because of its title contest immediately rebranded with the slogan "ONE TRUE CHAMPION" upon dropping to 10 members - then promptly awarded TCU and Baylor a co-championship in 2014 and missed the initial Playoff entirely. It turns out that, yes, forcing the entire league to play an additional game within the conference makes things more difficult on the national level.

Of course, the Pac-12 is well familiar with this, having adopted the nine-game schedule in 2006, long before the other Power conferences ever dreamed of it. It's been devastating to the league's national championship hopes; in 2006 (USC), 2008 (USC), 2011 (Oregon), 2012 (Oregon), and 2015 (Stanford), the Pac-12 champ suffered a conference loss that kept it out of the BCS Championship or Playoff. The effect has been so detrimental there have been calls for the Pac-12 to return to an eight-game schedule, but with the Big 12 - and more importantly, the Big Ten - now on board, it seems much more likely this is a route all conferences will ultimately be forced to choose.

It's certainly the way the ACC is going to have to go. The SEC has long maintained its internal quality excuses it from such lesser-conference trivialities, but if the other four Power conferences band together the SEC will eventually have no choice. That's means it's up to the ACC to get with the program, and as I said, it simply has to happen soon. Clemson's run will end this year, and there are no future guaranteed Playoff entrants from the ACC. With nearly half a conference of dead weight/basketball schools, it's already the weakest of the Power Five on a year-by-year basis, and an eight-game schedule is going to cost the league a final four spot in the very near future. The smart, proactive move would be to go to nine games at the earliest possible date (probably 2018). But we'll see if it takes missing out on the Playoff first.

2016 Stanzi Awards

What a send-off! After the quietest week of the season, Week 13 came through with three individual awards and a trio of Double Stanzis, including two that landed their heroes squarely on the short list for the ultimate trophy. There's only one more week, but enough finalists are still playing that there's some intrigue left. Can someone come from behind and steal this thing from Deshaun Watson?

Week 13 Awards

Dane Evans, Tulsa
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: Two INT, won by three

Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh
Opponent: Syracuse
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 15

David Washington, Old Dominion
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: One INT (for TD), two FUM, won by 14

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Sefo Liufao, Colorado
Opponent: Utah
Performance: Two FUM, won by five

Troy Williams, Utah
Opponent: Colorado
Performance: Two INT, lost by five

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Purdue
Performance: Three INT, won by two

David Blough, Purdue
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, lost by two

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Matt Linehan, Idaho
Opponent: South Alabama
Performance: Three INT, wony by seven

Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: Idaho
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven

2016 Finalists

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2

51 players: tied with 1

Look at that! 12 multiple-award finalists, 51 other one-off efforts, and a down-to-the-wire race that won't be settled until the conference championships end. This has been a season for the ages, one that will go down in Stanzi lore.

Down and Out at Louisville and Texas

National Overview

Well, scratch Louisville. My thoughts at the end of last week's blog turned out to be surprisingly prescient, as the Cardinals went down in embarrassing fashion at Houston on Thursday night. All of Louisville's weaknesses - lack of elite talent, an unsophisticated offense, and a schedule loaded with cream puffs - came back to haunt Lamar Jackson and Company when the Cards went up against an opponent with equal (or probably greater) talent across the board.

But a landscape-shifting upset this was not; as I said last week, Louisville was already extremely unlikely to make the Playoff. Clemson took care of business by trouncing Wake Forest on Saturday, ensuring the Tigers will play in the ACC Championship. Without that feather in the otherwise unremarkable cap that is Louisville's resume, the Cardinals would have been hard-pressed to provide convincing evidence to the Playoff committee for their inclusion. The loss to Houston merely confirms the inevitable.

Alabama did what Bama does every year against its annual FCS foe: barely show up. The Crimson Tide have a habit of sleepwalking through their November Iron Bowl tune-up, and this year was no exception. What, then, were Michigan and Ohio State's excuses this week? The rivals needed second-half stands to hold off bad conference opponents, teams they had to beat to ensure this week's clash would mean something. Yet more evidence that neither is ready to face Bama.

In forehead-slappingly irritating news, Oklahoma got out to a huge lead and held off West Virginia, indicating that the Sooners are probably going to run the table in the Big 12 and cause a lot of consternation in the Playoff debate in two weeks (although Oklahoma State will have something to say about that). Are we really going to do this again? The Sooners lost twice in September. They should be out. And yet I have a sinking feeling they might sneak in to the final four.

The Pac-12 picture will finally become clear this week, as Utah's home loss to Oregon simplified matters. The Utes can only play spoiler at Colorado, with a Buffaloes loss sending USC to the title game. The Apple Cup will decide the North, with a potential Washington State - Colorado rematch looming.

The MACtion gets us started with a bang Tuesday night, as both Ohio and Miami (OH) play at 4 p.m. Pacific with the East on the line. If the Bobcats beat Akron, Ohio takes the division. An Ohio loss coupled with a Miami (OH) win over Ball State would hand the Redhawks the title. Both contenders are at home. Let the mid-major lunacy begin!

Thanksgiving Day brings an unholy new-age division rivalry with LSU visiting Texas A&M. Remember when this day was reserved for the Lone Star Showdown between A&M and Texas? Conference realignment has had some frustrating consequences.

That being said, it is rivalry week, despite the fragmentation to some classic series that border on crimes against the sport. North Carolina - North Carolina State is the Friday wake-up call, followed by that all-important Apple Cup at 12:30 p.m. At 2 p.m. there's an awesome MAC showdown between Toledo and undefeated Western Michigan that will decide the West crown, and finally the glorious hatred of Arizona State - Arizona in the Territorial Cup at 6 p.m.

Saturday is the treasure trove. At 9 a.m.: Georgia Tech at Georgia, Kentucky at Louisville, Kansas -Kansas State, and third-ranked Michigan at second-ranked Ohio State. But that's far from all of it. We also get Purdue - Indiana, Illinois - Northwestern, Central Florida at South Florida, Virginia at Virginia Tech, and Syracuse at Pittsburgh, all to start us off in the morning!

The midday slate brings more goodies: The Egg Bowl (Mississippi State - Ole Miss) and the Iron Bowl (Auburn - Alabama), Notre Dame at USC, Michigan State at Penn State, Minnesota at Wisconsin, Nevada at UNLV, and North Texas at UTEP.  Nebraska at Iowa, while not a rivalry, could also have huge Big Ten West implications.

As we approach prime time, the Rumble in the Rockies pits Utah against Colorado, while South Carolina meets Clemson, Tennessee travels to Vanderbilt, and Florida and Florida State square off in Tallahassee. It's an utterly delightful day jam-packed with the best the wonky 2016 season has to offer.

Playoff Poll

In keeping with last week's rankings, I will again designate a special tier for the nation's best team.

God-King Tier

Alabama

Simply the best team in the country in every way.

First Tier

Ohio State
Clemson
Washington

J.T. Barrett has had some struggles this year, but I still feel far better about OSU's quarterback situation than Michigan's. John O'Korn and Wilton Speight are mediocre-at-best passers, and the Buckeyes should be able to exploit that. Now, if OSU doesn't win the division (which is likely), things will get interesting. Clemson wrapped up the Atlantic with ease and should win the ACC Championship, while Washington - despite some damaging injuries - is still the Pac-12 favorite.

Second Tier

Michigan
Wisconsin

The good news for the Wolverines is their path to the Playoff is far simpler; winning out would add a Power Five title to their name, with a final four spot imminent. The bad news is that Ohio State will probably win this week. Wisconsin's two close losses (to OSU and UM) are now essentially viewed as honorable battle wounds, and the Badgers would likely make the Playoff with a division and then conference championship.

Third Tier

Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Penn State
Western Michigan

This tier represents the long-shots, in descending order of likelihood to make the Playoff. The Sooners are the biggest name and have the best chance, with a potential nine-game winning streak and undefeated Big 12 resume to their name. Oklahoma State is in an odd situation given that official-aided loss to Central Michigan, but with an upset in the Bedlam Game the Cowboys would have a very strong case for inclusion.

Colorado could finish 11-2 with a conference title and two competitive losses (to Michigan and USC), but I still think the chances are pretty slim. It'll be hard for the committee to not use CU's recent history (of being terrible) against the Buffs. At Penn State, the Nittany Lions could actually win the Big Ten crown (unlikely though that may be), but the team also has the worst loss of any potential Playoff squad with that 49-10 stomping at the hands of Michigan. It's hard to see the committee taking PSU. And of course, there's Western Michigan: unappreciated, undervalued, underrated.

Pac-12 Report

Well, it came too late to save the season - or possibly Mark Helfrich's job - but Oregon got the title-race-changing upset of the season by knocking Utah out of South contention. I'm not shocked the Utes lost, as the team had been performing unevenly all year, but it is a surprise to see it come at the hands of the Ducks, who have been so very bad in 2016.

No matter. With Colorado's strong finish against Washington State (along with Washington and USC's wins), we have a simplified path to the championship game. Washington or WSU will win the North on Friday in the Apple Cup. If Colorado beats Utah, the Buffaloes win the South; if the Utes win, USC will play the North champ.

But first, the other games. I adore the Arizona - Arizona State rivalry, which supplanted Oregon - Washington several years ago as the nastiest in the Pac-12. Arizona needs a win at home to prevent a winless conference season, while ASU, despite being the better team, has been racked with injuries. I'm going with the Sun Devils in Tucson, because ASU can still score, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats make it a game or even win.

Notre Dame - USC is our national intersectional rivalry, and this year it's pretty easy to pick. The Fighting Irish have been a mess all season, while SC has come on very strong and looks to end the 2016 campaign with eight straight wins. The Trojans should win without issue.

The other, far more ridiculous, non-league game being played is Stanford hosting Rice. I'm not sure why the Cardinal have started this tradition in recent years of playing teams that aren't Cal in rivalry week, but here's another example. Rice is awful and Stanford will win easily. Why is this game being played in November and not September?

Oregon and Oregon State meet in Corvallis this year for the Civil War sporting identical 2-6 conference records. The Ducks are unquestionably the more talented team, but up until last week I would have picked the Beavers in a heartbeat. UO has simply looked like a team going through the motions to play out the end of the season - until the upset of Utah. Now I'm more inclined to favor the Ducks... but I still can't do it. OSU has waited years for an opportunity to get revenge in this rivalry, and Oregon has been far too erratic to trust. It's a toss-up, but I lean Oregon State.

UCLA is at Cal for a quasi-rivalry game to end the year, with both sitting at 4-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference. I thought both teams put up a nice fight last week against superior rival squads (USC and Stanford, respectively). The Bruins have the luxury of going up against the nation's second-worst defense in this contest, but they'll be doing it with a backup QB in Mike Fafaul whose play has been unpredictable. Cal has a more talented offense but there's no denying the role the Bears' defense has played in their current four-game losing streak. It's another toss-up; I favor Cal in a loss that will get Jim Mora fired at UCLA.

Finally, there's the two games that will decide the teams in the conference championship. The Apple Cup hasn't had these kind of stakes in years, unless you count the infamous 2008 game between 0-11 Washington and 1-11 WSU (The Cougars won 16-13 in double overtime). The rivals enter this contest under very different circumstances: both sit at 7-1 in Pac-12 play, with only Wazzu's two head-scratching losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State to start the season preventing this from being a top-10 showdown. With all due respect to Colorado, the Washington schools are probably the two best teams in the conference.

The Huskies looked nigh-untouchable in the league until two weeks ago, winning every game but one by double digits. Then came the nightmare against USC and the injuries to the defense. This week, former starting defensive back Darren Gardenhire curiously announced his departure from the program. I had Washington State upsetting UW before the season began, but started leaning more and more toward Washington as the year progressed. Now, the picture is much less clear. Luke Falk and the WSU offense are really good, even with the loss of star receiver River Cracraft. The Cougs have even showed an increased ability to run the ball this year. There's real doubt as to whether Washington's front, so good for most of the year, can get consistent pressure AND cover Wazzu's skill players.

That question would be less important if the Huskies' offense was still humming, but UW stalled out against USC and was sloppy early last week versus ASU. Jake Browning has thrown two picks in each of the past two games after just three in the previous nine contests. For Washington to win, he has to rebound, and the Huskies have to be able to get some stops defensively so this game doesn't turn into a shootout. That's where Mike Leach thrives, and you'd better believe the WSU coach will have his guys ready after a hard-fought loss to Colorado. However, Chris Petersen is an excellent coach as well, and I ultimately trust him to find a way to get this one last win. With much hesitation, I give UW the slightest of edges over Wazzu.

The Utah - Colorado matchup seems more clear-cut. While Utah is undoubtedly a talented team, the Utes have been playing with fire for a while. Close wins over Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA - all teams in the bottom half of the conference - demonstrated what kind of squad this really is, with losses to Cal and Oregon (other bad teams!) to really drive the point home. Utah managed just 23 and 28 points against the Bears and Ducks, respectively, despite those opposing defenses ranking 127th and 126th in the country. To put it simply, Utah is a mediocre offensive team.

Colorado, meanwhile, is a very good defensive team, leading the Pac-12 and ranking 14th in the nation. The Buffaloes are better on both sides of the ball than the Utes, playing at home, with a chance to win the Pac-12 championship. There's precedent for an upset here - Colorado beat Utah on the road in the final week of the 2011 season to keep the Utes from a South title - but that was the first year of the expanded conference in a very different Pac-12. CU should win Saturday to advance to the title game.

Heisman Watch

D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas

This race has gotten really strange. Texas lost to Kansas for the first time in 78 years, but it certainly wasn't because of Foreman, who bulldozed for 250 yards and two scores on a superhuman 51 carries. He's the nation's leading rusher in both yards and yards per game... and oh yeah, he's done it despite playing in just 10 games.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama

The precocious Hurts is quietly going to pass for more than 2,000 yards while rushing for more than 1,000, and his completion percentage is significantly better than Lamar Jackson's despite playing in an offense that places far less emphasis on bubble screens and pitch passes. He represents the terrifying potential of an extended Alabama dynasty.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Jackson is probably still going to win the award, but he really shouldn't. I can't recall a Heisman winner who has ever had a game as bad as Jackson did against Houston, when he completed just 20 of 43 passes, was sacked 11 times, fumbled of his own volition in the red zone to kill a scoring drive and took one of the worst safeties in recent memory in a 26-point rout. It wasn't all on him, but how can a guy have a game like that and win the Heisman?

Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan

27 passing touchdowns, six rushing scores, one interception, one fumble, third in the nation in pasing efficiency, just 12 sacks taken. No, the competition hasn't been as tough, but WMU has beaten two Big Ten teams, and a victory over 9-2 Toledo this Friday would absolutely qualify as a quality win. Send this guy to the ceremony. He deserves it, far more than J.T. Barrett or Baker Mayfield.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington

A recent penchant for throwing interceptions aside, Browning has had a marvelous year. He's already set the UW single-season passing TD record with at least two games to play (and with as many as four remaining, he could set the bar so high it might never be topped). Despite the picks the last two weeks, he's still fourth in the country in passing efficiency. 2016 might not be his year, but he's going to be a favorite next season.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I've defended Charlie Strong on multiple occasions, but this past week sealed his fate at Texas, and not without reason. The situation he inherited at Texas wasn't ideal, and obviously there's a ton of pressure to succeed in Austin. Anyone who denies the role race played in the opposition to Strong has his or her head in the sand. It's not as if the man is a fraud; Strong has proven to be a good coach in the past, and will probably do so again in a slightly more comfortable scenario.

But the simple fact of the matter is there's no place at Texas for a head coach who loses to Kansas. This wasn't even one of the few good Jayhawks squads of the last decade. It was one of the worst teams in the country, and the loss 24-21 overtime loss came after UT took a 21-10 lead in the fourth quarter. Kansas hadn't beaten UT since 1938. Strong knows he's gone, and unfortunately, it's his own doing. He just didn't improve the team fast enough.

2016 Stanzi Awards

It was the quietest week of the season for the Stanzis, with just two weekly awards. We had no Double Stanzis for the first time in quite a while, and neither of this week's winners had won previously.

Week 12 Awards

John Urzua, Middle Tennessee
Opponent: Charlotte
Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech
Opponent: Notre Dame
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

2016 Finalists

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2

49 players: tied with 1


There's still time to catch up, but Deshaun Watson's lead is pretty daunting at this point. Rivalry week should produce some real craziness, so we'll see what the picture looks like when the dust clears.

Chaos Reigns

National Overview

It's been a long time since college football has seen a day as crazy as last Saturday. Five top-10 teams went down, including teams two through four in the Playoff rankings, and sixth-ranked Louisville and 10th-ranked Penn State nearly joined them. Some of the losses (hello, Clemson) weren't shocking, given how up-and-down the Tigers have been. Others, like Auburn's ugly loss at Georgia, were more head-scratching.

The rankings said Iowa over Michigan was a massive upset, but I wasn't particularly blow away by that result. As I've noted several times this season, the Wolverines have played a weak schedule, opening with five consecutive home games (and playing eight overall. Boo.) UM also got lucky when Colorado's upset bid was foiled by an injury to starting quarterback Sefo Liufao, and the team played Penn State well before the Nittany Lions resembled anything like a good football team. Spanning from their contest against Wisconsin all the way to Ohio State, the Wolverines will go almost two full months between ranked opponents.

That's all evidence that this is more or less who Michigan is: a very good team, but one that got fat on a soft schedule, and never one that could have reasonably challenged Alabama. It's fitting that the Wolverines finally lost on the same day as Clemson, another highly talented group that clearly never completely gelled this season. The Tigers played with fire from the opener at Auburn, but it took 10 games for Deshaun Watson to do enough to cost his team a game.

Of course, the amusing footnote to all this was that neither loss matters in the long run; win out, and both Michigan and Clemson are conference champions and in the Playoff. The road is a lot nastier for UM, but the ability to control one's own destiny is all that can be asked for in this sport. Washington is in a similar position, but the Huskies actually fell to a good team. I'll cover them in the Pac-12 section.

We start Week 12 with the usual early-week MAC absurdities, but also get a jewel of a Thursday-nighter when Louisville visits Houston. This game once loomed as a delightful showdown between top-five teams, but sadly, the Cougars weren't able to keep their end of the bargain. They're still dangerous, though, and the Cardinals would do well not to underestimate them.

Saturday kicks off with Oklahoma State's final tuneup before the Bedlam Game when the Cowboys visit TCU. The Horned Frogs have been hard to pin down this year but are looking for bowl eligibility, while OSU is praying for a glimmer of hope from the Playoff committee. That contest is followed at 10 a.m. by the rescheduled Florida - LSU matchup, a game that could have big implications in the rankings for Wisconsin, which knocked off the Tigers to start the season.

The midday slate has one of the big showdowns of the day, as Washington State heads to Boulder for a huge Pac-12 game with Colorado. The Cougars don't need this game at all. Already eliminated from the Playoff with a loss to an FCS team, their best hope is to be conference champs, and the Apple Cup with Washington will decide who wins the North, regardless of this result. But CU has to have this one, needing to win out to avoid a multiple-team tie that might send USC or Utah to the league title game.

We also get a fun Mountain West tilt at 12:30 when West division leader San Diego State takes on co-Mountain division leader Wyoming in Laramie. The Aztecs have ruled the conference with an iron fist for the past two seasons, but the Cowboys have already taken down one MWC heavyweight (Boise State) at home this year. Another upset could send Wyoming on a path to win double-digit games for the first time in 20 years.

Primetime brings the week's biggest event, with Big 12 leader Oklahoma facing off against second-place West Virginia in Morgantown. The Mountaineers seem to have finally found their footing in the their new conference, but it would be a whole different story if WVU could knock off the Sooners (who are still, somehow, hanging around the Playoff conversation).

Playoff Poll

If last week didn't convince voters Alabama is without peers this season, nothing will. On a weekend when five top-10 teams lost and two more had a scare, the Crimson Tide beat Mississippi State - the team that just upset Texas A&M - by 48 points.

God-King Tier

Alabama

I, for one, welcome our Crimson Tide overlords.

First Tier

Michigan
Clemson
Washington

What? All three of these teams just lost. In a strange quirk of the new Playoff system, all three will still join Bama in the final four by winning out. Who knew replacing the BCS would be this complicated?

Second Tier

Ohio State
Louisville

If there's a team that can make the Playoff without a conference championship, it's Ohio State. The Buckeyes would miss the Big Ten title game if Penn State wins out, but clearly have the love of the committee. Louisville's hopes amount to a longer shot, but the Cardinals did receive a great stroke of fortune with all the upsets this weekend.

Third Tier

Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Western Michigan

The Badgers will win the West by beating Purdue and Minnesota, so an improbable two-loss Big Ten champion scenario isn't out of the question. The damned Sooners, inexplicable voter favorites that they are, could garner a repeat backdoor spot in the Playoff with a strong finish. Western Michigan, ever the faithful adherent to a system stacked against it, has only a minimal chance.

Pac-12 Report

Don't be fooled by Utah's 49-26 victory over Arizona State. This was a back-and-forth contest that saw the Utes leading 28-26 early in the fourth quarter. ASU isn't good, and Utah isn't a top-15 team. Neither is Stanford, although the Cardinal at least had the grace to drop out of the polls for a few weeks before clobbering hapless Oregon on Saturday.

Colorado and Washington State got comfortable wins over Arizona and Cal, respectively, while Oregon State fought hard but couldn't overcome its own miscues at UCLA. None of those results was surprising. USC over Washington, on the other hand, was harder to see coming.

I shouldn't be surprised, given how much temperance I've urged on Washington's behalf. I thought the Huskies were a very good team getting an artificial boost from a watered-down league, and this game confirmed that. However, I've also been skeptical for years about USC's talent-to-results ratio, given how often the Trojans have been the preseason favorite and failed to deliver. In this game, SC finally showed up on the big stage.

Sam Darnold had been good since taking over the QB job, but nothing he'd done prior to the UW game screamed breakout. Indeed, he was shaky early, throwing an interception to kill a promising opening drive. From that point on, though, he was quite good, delivering time and time again as Washington's defense struggled to rush the passer and stop drives after the crushing loss of linebacker Azeem Victor. Perhaps the Trojans are ready at last to jettison their mantle of mediocrity.

There are still games to be played, however, and as well as USC has played over the past month, its fate is out of its own control. The Trojans will almost certainly wrap up a 7-2 conference record against rival UCLA this week (before facing Notre Dame in their finale), yet it's ultimately up to Colorado and Utah to sort out the South.

We'll get an indication of how that will play out Saturday. Utah should beat Oregon, bringing the Utes' conference record to 6-2; another win the following week against Colorado would clinch the division. The Buffaloes must win out to take the South, as a tie with USC would hand the South to the Trojans. It's a tall order to beat Wazzu and Utah back-to-back, even with both games at home.

Further complicating the equation is the situation in the North. Washington should easily handle Arizona State to get to 7-1 in league play, but WSU - the Pac-12's last unbeaten team at 7-0 - can afford to lose in Boulder before returning to the friendly confines of Pullman to take on Washington in a winner-takes-all Apple Cup. (In other, less meaningful conference action, Stanford meets Cal for the Big Game in Berkeley, while Arizona and Oregon State face off in Corvallis.)

The North's resolution is simple: as long as Washington beats ASU, the Apple Cup decides the division. In the South, assuming USC and Utah both win this week, things still hinge on the two Colorado contests. Colorado takes the division with two more wins; Utah also clinches with two more wins, while USC has to hope for a Colorado loss to WSU this week followed by a Buffs' win against Utah.

Heisman Watch

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Jackson has to be considered the runaway favorite at this point despite his merely average passing efficiency. Too many other contenders have stumbled (or lost games) to overcome his massive edge in stats.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama

Don't count Hurts out. In case anyone thought Bama couldn't pass, Hurts put on a show with nearly 350 yards and four touchdowns in a 51-3 annihilation of Mississippi State. The kid is good.

D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas

Foreman's 167 yards against West Virginia actually lowered his nation-best average to 179 yards per game, but never fear: Saturday brings the gloriously awful Kansas defense squarely into his sights. This should be fun.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington

Browning wasn't the main reason the Huskies lost to USC (pin that on the O-line and defense), but he certainly didn't help his case with by far his worst game of the season. Winning out should still put him in New York, but his chance at actually snagging the trophy might be gone.

Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan

I love Terrell's steadiness and efficiency, as he's scored 28 times this season and turned the ball over just twice (one fumble, one pick). He's sharp in the pocket and deceptively nimble, and as long as WMU stays undefeated, he's got to be here.

Random Thoughts and Observations

It's getting tougher to ignore the elephant in the room that is Louisville. The Cardinals have very little hope of winning a (bad) major conference, normally a death blow to an aspiring National Championship contender. However, the Cardinals have been the beneficiaries of an archaic, poll-era quirk that has the potential to cause a lost of consternation among fans: they lost early. Louisville reaped the huge benefit of blowing out Florida State in September, way back when the Seminoles were considered an elite team (whoops). That "quality win" has been boosting the team for almost two months, even after FSU has been fully revealed as a fraud.

Voters in the polls don't know what to do about this. The teams ahead of Louisville keep losing, so traditional logic says the Cardinals have to move up, all the way to number three this week. But my poll - and the Playoff Committee - don't work that way (and I think we're on the same page). Barring a stunning loss to Wake Forest this week, Clemson will win the ACC Atlantic division. That's going to leave the Cardinals out in the cold, even at 11-1, because the wins just aren't there. Look at the teams Louisville has beaten this year. Charlotte. Syracuse. Marshall. Duke. North Carolina State. Virginia. Boston College. Other than FSU, the team's best win was last week, when it beat 6-4 Wake Forest. Louisville didn't just play an ACC schedule, it played a bad ACC schedule against the dregs of the conference. The Cardinals missed the top five teams from the Coastal, drawing bottom-feeders Duke and Virginia. That's what's ultimately going to kill this team in the eyes of the Committee.

2016 Stanzi Awards

It was a quiet week for the Stanzis, although three of the four winners came by their awards in Double Stanzi games. This time it was USC's Sam Darnold who broke through to the finalists, no small feat when you consider he's only been starting for seven games. Well done, Sam! Here are this week's winners

Week 11 Awards

Trace McSorley, Penn State
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, won by 15

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Sam Darnold, USC
Opponent: Washington
Performance: Two INT, won by 13

Jake Browning, Washington
Opponent: USC
Performance: Two INT, lost by 13

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Skyler Howard, West Virginia
Opponent: Texas
Performance: Three INT, won by three

Shane Buechele, Texas
Opponent: West Virginia
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by three

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Austin Appleby, Florida
Opponent: South Carolina
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 13

Jake Bentley, South Carolina
Opponent: Florida
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by 13

2016 Finalists

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2

47 players: tied with 1


At this point, I'm not sure anyone will be able to catch Watson. The Clemson signal-caller already leads the pack with three weekly awards, but he also holds the tiebreaker in the form of his performance this week, when he tossed another three picks - including a back-breaker when the Tigers should have had the game in hand - to lose to Pitt. It'll fun to see if anyone can top that going forward.

The End Times Begin

National Overview

Texas A&M was never going to stay ahead of Washington in the long run, but the Aggies did everyone a favor by losing to Mississippi State and simplifying both the SEC West and the Playoff chase. With A&M out, the division will come down to whoever wins the Iron Bowl (which, if Saturday's close win over Vanderbilt was any indication, won't be Auburn). Given the hilarious race to the bottom going on in the East, it's hard to imagine Alabama wouldn't be favored by an historic margin in the conference championship game.

The Big Ten, meanwhile, will still come down to Michigan - Ohio State, no matter what delusions of grandeur Penn State might currently be harboring. Louisville has been all but eliminated from the ACC (Clemson would have to lose to both Pittsburgh and Wake Forest), and Washington continues to rumble through the deflated Pac-12 with nary more than a smile and a wave from its peers.

But what of the Big 12, you say? After complaints that I failed to properly address the goings-on of the nation's most precariously positioned league, I'll try to atone this week. Oklahoma has done more or less exactly what was expected of it, dashing out to an infuriating 6-0 start after losing twice in non-conference play. It's as if Stanford has a double in the Big 12. Meanwhile, Baylor and West Virginia both started 6-0 overall against cupcake schedules, then took their comeuppance in powerfully satisfying fashion. Oklahoma State has been under the radar after that weird Central Michigan loss, but the Cowboys continue to represent the best threat to the Sooners' irritating domination of the conference.

Texas, TCU and Kansas State have been the predictably mercurial middle class of the league, while - surprise, surprise - Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas bring up the rear (the Battle for the Bottom takes place this week when the Cyclones and Jayhawks face off in Lawrence!). The last month of the Big 12 race is going to be fun to watch, even though there's virtually no chance the league sends a team to the Playoff. The most notable thing about the conference at this point is how, for at least the fourth straight year, the preseason favorite magically got all of its toughest foes at the back end of the schedule, ensuring high rankings and media attention late into the season. The other Power Five leagues have to call the Big 12 out on this at some point.

Speaking of the Big 12, the conference will get the weekend started right for us, with a 9:00 a.m. kick between Baylor and Oklahoma in Norman that should solidify the Sooners' control of their own Big 12 fate - or plunge the conference into chaos. Fresh off an upset of then-fourth-ranked Texas A&M, Mississippi State gets rewarded with a date with Alabama, while Kentucky and Tennessee meet in a who-saw-this-coming showdown that could help decide the SEC East. Tulsa and Navy also face off in a massive AAC contest between the co-leaders of the conference's West division.

At 12:30 there's a delightful old SEC rivalry in the form of Auburn - Georgia, along with Clemson's last ACC test versus Pittsburgh. Appalachian State and Troy, both undefeated in the Sun Belt, square off in the midday slate as well. That's followed by the LSU - Arkansas rivalry at 4:00 p.m., as well as important American matchup in South Florida at Memphis.

In primetime, it's a huge one in the Pac-12, as USC takes on Washington in Seattle (more on this in the Pac-12 section). Michigan is at slumping Iowa around the same time. The evening slate is thin, with legitimately good teams (Colorado, San Diego State, Washington State) taking the field against mediocre opponents (Arizona, Nevada and Cal, rexpectively).

Playoff Poll

We've disposed of the Texas A&M charade, which is nice, but doesn't change my current Playoff rankings.

First Tier

Alabama
Michigan
Clemson
Washington

The Crimson Tide continue to widen the gap. I'm still not completely sold on Michigan - the Wolverines haven't played a team with a pulse in a month - but Clemson's up-and-down performances and Washington's weaker schedule make the hierarchy clear.

Second Tier

Ohio State
Auburn

The Buckeyes got a massive boost with that drubbing of Nebraska, but no, they shouldn't move into the top four because Nebraska isn't an elite team. Auburn was fortunate to escape Vanderbilt but remains the last best threat in the SEC to Alabama.

Third Tier

Louisville
Wisconsin
Western Michigan

I've covered the slimness of Louisville's hopes ad nauseum; Wisconsin probably should be eliminated but could sneak into a backdoor spot by running the table the rest of the way and avenging one of those losses to Ohio State/Michigan, while Western Michigan remains the people's champ.

Pac-12 Report

In happy news, Colorado survived a bizarre game Thursday night against UCLA in which seemingly everything went wrong but the Buffaloes prevailed. CU is now 5-1 and in sole possession of the South. Washington State throttled Arizona, while Washington did the same to Cal and USC essentially did the same to Oregon. The only truly competitive contest was in Palo Alto, where Stanford held off a game Oregon State squad for a 26-15 win.

This week we're finally back to a full slate, with all 12 conference teams playing conference foes. The Pac-12 schedule starts Thursday, when Utah takes on Arizona State in Tempe for a game that at first glance appears to be a cakewalk but which might actually pose some problems for the Utes. ASU desperately needed the bye week, even more so than Utah, and both teams are banged up. Had the Utes' offense not suddenly sprung back to life in recent weeks with the re-insertion of running back Joe Williams, I might even pick the Sun Devils for the upset. As it is, though, ASU's defense is too awful to stand behind.

Saturday's games begin in Eugene, with an oh-how-the-mighty-have-fallen matchup between Stanford and Oregon that has to have the rest of the league positively smirking. Oregon has flopped more spectacularly in 2016, but make no mistake: Stanford is not a good football team. The two squads are actually remarkably close to exact opposites; the Cardinal rank 22nd in the nation in defense and 123rd in offense, while Oregon is 22nd in offense and 127th in defense. In other words, this should be the precise opponent both schools need! I have no idea who will win this game. I've watched these teams several teams this year and hold zero confidence in both.

USC is at Washington for the marquee matchup of the week, with the Trojans needing to win out for a shot at the division crown and redemption in the Pac-12 title game. The problem is, SC is the team Washington least wants to see in that game, and the Huskies can knock the Trojans out of the South race once and for all with a home win here. I expect them to do it without too much trouble; the Trojans' recent win streak is nice but largely came against the dregs of the conference, and Sam Darnold is not good enough to carry SC to victory past the nasty UW defense.

Oregon State is at UCLA for the first of three evening games in the league, with both squads desperately needing a win after 1-5 starts to Pac-12 play. It's hard to imagine Jim Mora keeping his job with the Bruins regardless of how this season ends, but it's certainly not a stretch to think a home loss to OSU would put the nail in that coffin. The thing is, the Beavers might simply be a better team than UCLA, if recent weeks are anything to go by. OSU has definitely been more competitive during its four-game losing streak than the Bruins have been in theirs. The Bruins are more talented, but I like the Beavs' chances to get a win in Pasadena.

We continue in the late-night slate with Colorado at Arizona, where the Buffaloes get one final tune-up against the winless Wildcats before hitting the nasty end of their schedule. There shouldn't be too much trouble in Tucson, even after CU played its worst game of the season against UCLA last week. Zona will (hopefully) put up more of a fight after its 69-7 shellacking at the hands of Wazzu, but UA has been a mess this year. Colorado should win without issue.

The finale should provide some fireworks, as Air Raid disciples Sonny Dykes and Mike Leach have Cal and Washington State air it out in Pullman. Cal has showed a lot more fight in 2016 than I expected, but the Bears' D is truly atrocious. Wazzu seemed to fix some nagging problems in the massive blowout over Arizona last week and should be able to pull away by a couple of scores. The Cougars might get caught looking ahead to Colorado, but it doesn't seem likely to cost them the game.

Heisman Watch

Jake Browning, QB, Washington

Need more evidence? Browning responded from a "down" performance against Utah (where he completed "only" 60 percent of his passes for two touchdowns and one pick) with a career day against Cal in which he racked up 378 yards, six TD's and no interceptions. For the year, his TD:INT ratio stands at 34:3 (and he's chipped in four rushing scores as well).

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Jackson racked up another massive stat day against Boston College, finishing with seven TD's. He'll assuredly be in New York for his outsize numbers, although it's interesting to see Jackson celebrated for stats gleaned in an offense that five years ago would have had voters turning up their noses and sniffing "system QB." The ghosts of Texas Tech QB's past must be shaking their fists in indignation.

D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas

Foreman was merely having a nice season on a mediocre team until the past two weeks, when he rumbled for an outrageous 591 yards and five TD's against Baylor and Texas Tech. Neither of those opponents is known for its defense, but as the nation's leading rusher in yards per game Foreman is going to get an invite to New York if he keeps this up. Just imagine where Texas would be without him.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama

Hurts was shaky early against LSU but clutch when it mattered, and his best throw of the night (a 52-yarder down to the eight just after halftime that should have knocked out the Tigers) didn't get rewarded thanks to some poor play-calling from Lane Kiffin. He's still played beyond his years in leading (yes, leading) Bama to its 9-0 record and deserves recognition.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson's struggles in 2016 are well-documented, as his completion percentage, TD passes and rushing stats are all down while his interceptions are up. It's not been the victory lap the media expected for the Tigers' signal-caller. Yet he played brilliantly in the first half Saturday against Syracuse, putting up a season-best performance before leaving with an injury. If he can put things together in the next few weeks, he might actually become a viable candidate again.

Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan

Terrell bounced back from his first interception of the season with a 367-yard, three-TD effort in a 52-20 romp over Ball State. As I said last week, he won't win the award, but the Broncos' excellent year and Terrell's efficiency ought to earn the WMU passer a spot at the ceremony.

Random Thoughts and Observations

After Baylor's tumultuous offseason, in which the school's efforts to cover up a wide-ranging culture of systemic sexual assault by football players over a period of several years was exposed (and which culminated in the firing of beloved coach Art Briles), the last thing the conference needed was for the Bears - who have yet to be punished by the NCAA, somehow - to go out and win the league. The undefeated start to this season had to put a scare into Big 12 officials, but fortunately Baylor was stopped by Texas last week in a close game before getting hammered 62-22 this weekend against TCU. The sweet part of the second loss was that it came at home on a day when the team wore black uniforms it indicated were in solidarity with the departed Briles (yes, Briles, not the victims he covered up to protect his football team) AND fans bought shirts supporting the disgraced coach outside the stadium. Sic 'Em, indeed.

2016 Stanzi Awards

It was a quiet week for the Stanzis, but once again we got a previous winner leaping into the finalists with a second weekly award! Nick Fitzgerald of Mississippi State is the lucky addition this week, joining the eight other multiple-time winners in possibly the finest group of finalists the award has ever seen.

Week 10 Awards

Sefo Liufao, Colorado
Opponent: UCLA
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 10

Jalen Hurts, Alabama
Opponent: LSU
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 10

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
Opponent: Kansas State
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by six

Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Rutgers
Performance: Two INT, won by six

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State
Opponent: Texas A&M
Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Jake Hubenak, Texas A&M
Opponent: Mississippi State
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by seven

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Lamar Jordan, New Mexico
Opponent: Nevada
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by nine

Ty Gangi, Nevada
Opponent: New Mexico
Performance: Two INT, lost by nine

2016 Finalists

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2

45 additional players: 1


We've been blessed with a tremendous bounty this year in poor quarterback play. 54 total players have combined for 64 total Stanzis, a remarkable effort that will probably wind up producing the greatest season in award history. Happy Week 11.

Death of the Big 12

National Overview

It was a relatively quiet, though revealing, Week Nine. Virginia Tech continued its under-the-radar march toward the conference title game in the ACC, as did Navy and Temple in the American. Boise State bowed out of the Playoff chase with a close loss at Wyoming, which revealed another interesting tidbit: the Cowboys are probably going to win the division over the Broncos, robbing us of a potentially awesome Boise State - San Diego State showdown for the Mountain West Championship.

Alabama was off, so there was no drama to be had atop the polls, but as the next five teams in the rankings all won, so too did they all show off their shortcomings in ugly fashion. Michigan went up big on Michigan State, but failed to look like an elite team in a nine-point win over the hapless Spartans. Clemson needed some questionable officiating to beat Florida State, as did Washington in its victory over Utah. Louisville scored with 13 seconds left to escape Virginia, one of the worst Power Five teams in the country. Ohio State barely beat Northwestern.

These are the teams challenging Alabama? Good lord. Let's just crown the Crimson Tide and be done with it. Nobody has the offense to beat Bama, while the list of teams that have a good enough defense to merely hang with the Tide has shrunk considerably (Michigan, Florida, perhaps Washington). It's not a pretty picture.

Even Wisconsin, which finally broke through against another high-ranked team, was underwhelming against a Nebraska squad that hasn't beaten anyone of note. Tennessee also quietly removed itself from a longshot at the SEC East crown with a road loss to South Carolina. And oh yes, the Big 12 is out, out, out after unbeatens West Virginia and Baylor fell. We're down to five undefeated teams, with Western Michigan of the MAC joining the leaders of the four real Power conferences.

Sadly, the Broncos' chances for the Playoff are slim. Despite beating Northwestern in similar fashion to Ohio State (but on the road, unlike OSU) and blowing out Illinois just as Michigan did (once again: on the road, unlike UM), WMU's MAC schedule isn't sexy enough for voters or the committee. It's a real shame, because the Broncos (my pick to win the league!) have a good defense and a remarkably efficient offense led by senior quarterback Zach Terrell, another in a long line of solid MAC passers. Terrell's 23:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio leads the country, and the Broncos have turned the ball over only three times in nine games this season. WMU will need chaos in the major conferences to have a shot at the Playoff, though.

The usual late-season midweek MAC craziness is upon us, with three games total on Tuesday and Wednesday before one more each on Thursday and Friday. Other than Western Michigan (which hammered Ball State Tuesday night) there's little of interest there. However, Thursday night does bring us a pivotal Pac-12 South game when UCLA travels to division leader (?!) Colorado. The Buffs must - and should - win to maintain the lead in the South.

A very interesting early game Saturday morning in Jacksonville features Navy and Notre Dame, and it's not a stretch to say the result could decide Brian Kelly's fate in South Bend. It's one thing to lose a bunch of close games against a tough schedule, but a loss to a service academy (albeit an excellent one superior to every other team ND has played) would be devastating.

Another delightful Saturday morning matchup involving academies is the second of the three Commander-in-Chief's Trophy battles this year, pitting Air Force against Army at West Point. And hey, Army is kind of good this year! Both teams come in with 5-3 records, but the Falcons hold the upper hand after knocking off Navy earlier in the season (the Midshipmen's only loss until last week). I love the rivalry between the service schools, and this should be a good one.

Unfortunately, that's more or less it for the morning and midday slate. There are a handful of so-so matchups across the ACC and Big Ten, but outside of a colossal upset I can't endorse watching any of those games. BYU - Cincinnati at 12:30 could be good, and Florida has a potentially tricky game at Arkansas, but I'm not holding my breath.

The afternoon schedule is a little more sprightly, with Iowa - Penn State, disappointing Georgia at surprising Kentucky, and the two big 'uns: Alabama at LSU and Nebraska at Ohio State. I find LSU and Nebraska's rankings (13th and 10th, respectively) more than a little suspect, but you never know. The return of Leonard Fournette last week breathed some life into LSU, to put it mildly, and OSU has been pretty shaky lately, even if it is against a Cornhuskers squad without a quality win this year. Keep an eye on the Washington - Cal nightcap, too. The Huskies are coming off a physical, draining game in Salt Lake City and now have to defend the fourth-ranked passing offense in the nation.

Playoff Poll

This past week only served to illustrate, yet again, how wide the gap is between Alabama and everyone else.

First Tier

Alabama
Michigan
Clemson
Washington

After Bama the order gets confusing. Michigan has played a cushy-soft schedule thus far, but looked the best doing it. Clemson and Washington both needed help from the officials to win last week, but both were also clearly the better team(s). The Tigers are the squad most likely to lose; Washington is the one with the most to prove.

Second Tier

Ohio State
Florida
Texas A&M

Ohio State has the easiest route of any one-loss team: win out, and the Buckeyes are in the Playoff. The same applies to the Gators, although that would include a victory over Alabama. A&M is in a strange spot; the Aggies will get jumped if Washington wins out, but a three-way tie atop the SEC West (if Auburn beats Alabama) could put the team in the Playoff.

Third Tier

Louisville
Western Michigan
Auburn

I continue to rank Louisville lower than the polls because the simple fact is that the Cardinals have the worst odds out of the one-loss (Power Five) teams. Clemson, having defeated FSU, now has to lose two times against the combination of Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest just for Louisville to make the ACC title game. It's highly unlikely. I covered WMU earlier; Auburn, as I said above, has a shot in a three-way SEC West tiebreaker scenario, but the Tigers' second loss would make them a longshot.

Pac-12 Report

The results were all as expected last week, though not all in the fashion the betting lines predicted. The most important contest for the league ended in exactly - some might say suspiciously - the way the Pac-12 could have asked, with Washington beating Utah on a late punt return score. Set aside the gratuitous uncalled blocks in the back on the Huskies' winning TD, though. The final score of that game was irrelevant. What was more notable was the fact that Washington NEEDED that play to beat a decent, but not elite, Utes squad. It reinforced the notion that the Pac-12 is down (it is) and that even an unbeaten conference champ won't be able to hang in the Playoff (it probably won't).

Now, that's not to say UW fans should fret about the Playoff rankings. There's still a month-plus before the final Playoff rankings, and if Washington wins out it WILL be in the final four. The Pac-12 may be down, but college football still places a premium on a zero in the loss column, and it would be unprecedented for an unbeaten major-conference champion to get snubbed for a one-loss division runner-up in another league. The "control your own destiny" narrative is alive and well in the sport. Of course, that doesn't answer the question of whether the Pac-12 might be better off missing the Playoff.

Would it be the worst thing in the world if the league missed out this season? 2016 is a down year for college football, and there's a very slim chance anyone is going to knock off mighty Alabama. Might it not be more beneficial for the Pac-12 to miss the Playoff and be able to rant and rail against the decision rather than see Washington get throttled by 30 at the hands of the Crimson Tide? It's hard to say which scenario would hurt the conference more.

In any case, the Huskies had better stay focused on things current, because Cal's offense is no joke (although its defense certainly is). It's not easy to turn around from a tough game on the road at Utah, then have to go on the road again a week later and to chase around the Bears' receivers for four quarters. UW should still win, but this definitely falls into "letdown game" territory.

Thursday night is the beginning of the conference slate, when Colorado looks to move to 5-1 in the Pac-12 with a win over UCLA. The Buffaloes should be able to take care of business here. It appears Bruins QB Josh Rosen will miss the rest of the season, and though backup Mike Fafaul isn't as bad as his stat line indicates, you really can't spin four picks against Utah in any kind of positive way. CU should get the win at home.

Oregon State is at Stanford in the midday timeslot Saturday, one week after the Beavers let a big lead and likely win over Washington State slip from their fingers. Stanford has been in dire straights offensively all year, and I doubt the Cardinal will put up that many points without the help of its defense. OSU has also looked markedly better in the past two weeks, so I don't want to count the Beavs out. However, after an emotional loss like the one it suffered, it's hard to pick Oregon State on the road.

The other midday contest is Arizona at Washington State for a battle of teams going in opposite directions. Zona is 0-5 in the Pac-12 and Wazzu is 5-0. Moreover, Arizona teams tend to struggle on the road in Pullman, especially in November. This should be a blowout for the Cougars. The only thing that gives me pause is WSU's recent performances. After awesome beatdowns of Oregon and Stanford, the Cougs barely held off heavily injured foes in UCLA and ASU and should have lost last week to Oregon State, the league's least talented team. I need to see Wazzu put the Wildcats away early.

The final game is the afternoon one, as Oregon travels to USC to face an SC team that has won four straight. True, the Trojans were on a similar roll last year before the Ducks stopped them in their tracks in Eugene, but it would be an understatement to say the situation is a bit different this season. UO is hanging by a thread right now, even after last week's win over injury-riddled Arizona State. Oregon remains potent offensively, but SC's superior O-line should mow down the Ducks' young, small defensive front and keep QB Justin Herbert and all those speedsters on the sideline. I see the Ducks having to play catch-up most of the game, which doesn't bode well, although it's always possible the Trojans are due for one of their familiar flops.

Heisman Watch

The race has become a bit stale now that the same handful of players are more or less in a holding pattern.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington

Browning's outsize passing TD number - 28, to just 1,800 yards - demonstrates the remarkable efficiency of the UW passer, especially given the style of offense in which he plays. His low interception total (3) and team's record (8-0) makes him the leader.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama

Alabama was idle, so, in the absence of any incredible performances elsewhere, Hurts gets to maintain his position.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Jackson's numbers were good Saturday, but they were earned while digging his team out of the hole he put them in with his turnovers. You don't get rewarded for a Stanzi performance.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Clemson escaped again, and Watson was again not very good, earning yet another Stanzi in the close call. Like Jackson, he won't be rewarded for it.

Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan

The ceiling for almost every smaller-school QB is an invite to New York, and Terrell should get one with the way he's playing, particularly if WMU goes 13-0. The Broncos' offense isn't the wide-open, air-it-out attack you'd expect from a traditional mid-major power, yet Terrell is second in the nation in passing percentage, fourth in passer rating, and has an unreal 23:1 TD-to-INT ratio.

Random Thoughts and Observations

On the one hand, it was irritating to see Ohio State fall only four spots after losing to Penn State last week and Texas A&M in the inital Playoff this week. In years past losing to an unranked opponent would have dropped you out of the top 10 entirely, and a one-loss Power Five team would have never leapfrogged an undefeated one. What we're seeing here, though, is less corruption and favoritism and more a shift in voting toward a better, more transparent future.

Everyone can agree it was frustrating to see TCU sit at fourth in the Playoff rankings for weeks at the end of the 2014 season (the first year of the Playoff), only to get jumped at the last second by Ohio State. It raised questions about why the committee didn't just rank the Buckeyes there all along, if they were going to throw OSU in at the last minute anyway. But the committee's methodology was sound. It allowed Ohio State to earn that spot with big wins in its final two games (Michigan, then Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship). I see the committee doing the same thing to Washington now.

The fact of the matter is (despite how I ranked the teams in my poll) Texas A&M currently does have a better resume than Washington. My hand-wringing on this subject in recent weeks should have made this apparent, but here's a reminder: Washington expected - and needed - Stanford and Oregon to be at least good, if not great. Neither has exceeded mediocre. Both those early wins have been rendered useless. The overtime victory over Arizona to start Pac-12 play looks even worse now, which means the Huskies' entire rep rests on their narrow, ref-aided defeat of a decent-but-not-special Utah squad just last weekend.

It isn't UW's fault that the conference has let it down this year. Undefeated is undefeated. But, to paraphrase "Animal Farm", some undefeateds are more equal than others. There's a reason why Washington is the lowest-ranked unbeaten Power Five team. Texas A&M's schedule to this point, which includes a double-digit triumph at Auburn and two other quality wins over Arkansas and Tennessee, has been much tougher than the Huskies'. The Aggies even led in the third quarter at Alabama. So yes, A&M does deserve respect.

Just as in 2014, though, that respect will run out just in time for the Playoff (provided Washington wins out, of course). Ohio State eventually jumped TCU (and Baylor) by the virtue of snagging one additional win and being the undisputed Big Ten champion. An undefeated UW squad would have 13 wins to A&M's 11, zero losses to one, and a division AND conference championship to boot. It would be a unanimous decision by the committee. So don't worry, Huskies. Just take care of business.

2016 Stanzi Awards

It was yet another strong week in the Year of the Stanzi. Deshaun Watson continued his tear by snagging another weekly award, while Houston's Greg Ward and UCF's McKenzie Milton staged an epic slap-fight with a combined seven turnovers. What a delightful week!

Week Nine Awards

Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Opponent: Florida State
Performance: Two INT, won by three

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
Opponent: TCU
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three in double overtime

Ben Hicks, SMU
Opponent: Tulane
Performance: Two INT, won by four

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Opponent: Virginia
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

Kurt Benkert, Virginia
Opponent: Louisville
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston
Opponent: UCF
Performance: Three INT, one FUM, won by seven

McKenzie Milton, UCF
Opponent: Houston
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, lost by seven

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Nick Holley, Kent State
Opponent: Central Michigan
Performance: One INT (for TD), one FUM, won by three

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan
Opponent: Kent State
Performance: Three INT, lost by three

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Ahmad Bradshaw, Army
Opponent: Wake Forest
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by eight

John Wolford, Wake Forest
Opponent: Army
Performance: Three INT, lost by eight

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State
Opponent: Samford
Perfomance: Two INT, won by 15

Devlin Hodges, Samford
Opponent: Mississippi State
Performance: Three INT (one for TD), lost by 15

2016 Standings

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1
Kenny Hill, TCU: 1
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Sam Darnold, USC: 1
Eric Dungey, Syracuse: 1
Lamar Jackson, Louisville: 1
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 1
Dru Brown, Hawai'i: 1
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 1
Phillip Walker, Temple: 1
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 1
Kevin Ellison, Georgia Southern: 1
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan: 1
Nick Holley, Kent State: 1
Darrell Gerretson, Oregon State: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1
Taysom Hill, BYU: 1
Ryan Burns, Stanford: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Stephen Johnson, Kentucky: 1
Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Jesse Ertz, Kansas State: 1
Ahmad Bradshaw, Army: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Luke Falk, Washington State: 1
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
Deondre Francois, Florida State: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
David Blough, Purdue: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Quinton Flowers, South Florida: 1
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan: 1


Next week will signal the end of the "regular season", as the list will get trimmed to include just the finalists with multiple wins. Late-season awards will still apply, but for space's sake all the one-time winners will be ommitted. Deshaun Watson is the clubhouse leader once again!