Chaos Reigns

National Overview

It's been a long time since college football has seen a day as crazy as last Saturday. Five top-10 teams went down, including teams two through four in the Playoff rankings, and sixth-ranked Louisville and 10th-ranked Penn State nearly joined them. Some of the losses (hello, Clemson) weren't shocking, given how up-and-down the Tigers have been. Others, like Auburn's ugly loss at Georgia, were more head-scratching.

The rankings said Iowa over Michigan was a massive upset, but I wasn't particularly blow away by that result. As I've noted several times this season, the Wolverines have played a weak schedule, opening with five consecutive home games (and playing eight overall. Boo.) UM also got lucky when Colorado's upset bid was foiled by an injury to starting quarterback Sefo Liufao, and the team played Penn State well before the Nittany Lions resembled anything like a good football team. Spanning from their contest against Wisconsin all the way to Ohio State, the Wolverines will go almost two full months between ranked opponents.

That's all evidence that this is more or less who Michigan is: a very good team, but one that got fat on a soft schedule, and never one that could have reasonably challenged Alabama. It's fitting that the Wolverines finally lost on the same day as Clemson, another highly talented group that clearly never completely gelled this season. The Tigers played with fire from the opener at Auburn, but it took 10 games for Deshaun Watson to do enough to cost his team a game.

Of course, the amusing footnote to all this was that neither loss matters in the long run; win out, and both Michigan and Clemson are conference champions and in the Playoff. The road is a lot nastier for UM, but the ability to control one's own destiny is all that can be asked for in this sport. Washington is in a similar position, but the Huskies actually fell to a good team. I'll cover them in the Pac-12 section.

We start Week 12 with the usual early-week MAC absurdities, but also get a jewel of a Thursday-nighter when Louisville visits Houston. This game once loomed as a delightful showdown between top-five teams, but sadly, the Cougars weren't able to keep their end of the bargain. They're still dangerous, though, and the Cardinals would do well not to underestimate them.

Saturday kicks off with Oklahoma State's final tuneup before the Bedlam Game when the Cowboys visit TCU. The Horned Frogs have been hard to pin down this year but are looking for bowl eligibility, while OSU is praying for a glimmer of hope from the Playoff committee. That contest is followed at 10 a.m. by the rescheduled Florida - LSU matchup, a game that could have big implications in the rankings for Wisconsin, which knocked off the Tigers to start the season.

The midday slate has one of the big showdowns of the day, as Washington State heads to Boulder for a huge Pac-12 game with Colorado. The Cougars don't need this game at all. Already eliminated from the Playoff with a loss to an FCS team, their best hope is to be conference champs, and the Apple Cup with Washington will decide who wins the North, regardless of this result. But CU has to have this one, needing to win out to avoid a multiple-team tie that might send USC or Utah to the league title game.

We also get a fun Mountain West tilt at 12:30 when West division leader San Diego State takes on co-Mountain division leader Wyoming in Laramie. The Aztecs have ruled the conference with an iron fist for the past two seasons, but the Cowboys have already taken down one MWC heavyweight (Boise State) at home this year. Another upset could send Wyoming on a path to win double-digit games for the first time in 20 years.

Primetime brings the week's biggest event, with Big 12 leader Oklahoma facing off against second-place West Virginia in Morgantown. The Mountaineers seem to have finally found their footing in the their new conference, but it would be a whole different story if WVU could knock off the Sooners (who are still, somehow, hanging around the Playoff conversation).

Playoff Poll

If last week didn't convince voters Alabama is without peers this season, nothing will. On a weekend when five top-10 teams lost and two more had a scare, the Crimson Tide beat Mississippi State - the team that just upset Texas A&M - by 48 points.

God-King Tier

Alabama

I, for one, welcome our Crimson Tide overlords.

First Tier

Michigan
Clemson
Washington

What? All three of these teams just lost. In a strange quirk of the new Playoff system, all three will still join Bama in the final four by winning out. Who knew replacing the BCS would be this complicated?

Second Tier

Ohio State
Louisville

If there's a team that can make the Playoff without a conference championship, it's Ohio State. The Buckeyes would miss the Big Ten title game if Penn State wins out, but clearly have the love of the committee. Louisville's hopes amount to a longer shot, but the Cardinals did receive a great stroke of fortune with all the upsets this weekend.

Third Tier

Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Western Michigan

The Badgers will win the West by beating Purdue and Minnesota, so an improbable two-loss Big Ten champion scenario isn't out of the question. The damned Sooners, inexplicable voter favorites that they are, could garner a repeat backdoor spot in the Playoff with a strong finish. Western Michigan, ever the faithful adherent to a system stacked against it, has only a minimal chance.

Pac-12 Report

Don't be fooled by Utah's 49-26 victory over Arizona State. This was a back-and-forth contest that saw the Utes leading 28-26 early in the fourth quarter. ASU isn't good, and Utah isn't a top-15 team. Neither is Stanford, although the Cardinal at least had the grace to drop out of the polls for a few weeks before clobbering hapless Oregon on Saturday.

Colorado and Washington State got comfortable wins over Arizona and Cal, respectively, while Oregon State fought hard but couldn't overcome its own miscues at UCLA. None of those results was surprising. USC over Washington, on the other hand, was harder to see coming.

I shouldn't be surprised, given how much temperance I've urged on Washington's behalf. I thought the Huskies were a very good team getting an artificial boost from a watered-down league, and this game confirmed that. However, I've also been skeptical for years about USC's talent-to-results ratio, given how often the Trojans have been the preseason favorite and failed to deliver. In this game, SC finally showed up on the big stage.

Sam Darnold had been good since taking over the QB job, but nothing he'd done prior to the UW game screamed breakout. Indeed, he was shaky early, throwing an interception to kill a promising opening drive. From that point on, though, he was quite good, delivering time and time again as Washington's defense struggled to rush the passer and stop drives after the crushing loss of linebacker Azeem Victor. Perhaps the Trojans are ready at last to jettison their mantle of mediocrity.

There are still games to be played, however, and as well as USC has played over the past month, its fate is out of its own control. The Trojans will almost certainly wrap up a 7-2 conference record against rival UCLA this week (before facing Notre Dame in their finale), yet it's ultimately up to Colorado and Utah to sort out the South.

We'll get an indication of how that will play out Saturday. Utah should beat Oregon, bringing the Utes' conference record to 6-2; another win the following week against Colorado would clinch the division. The Buffaloes must win out to take the South, as a tie with USC would hand the South to the Trojans. It's a tall order to beat Wazzu and Utah back-to-back, even with both games at home.

Further complicating the equation is the situation in the North. Washington should easily handle Arizona State to get to 7-1 in league play, but WSU - the Pac-12's last unbeaten team at 7-0 - can afford to lose in Boulder before returning to the friendly confines of Pullman to take on Washington in a winner-takes-all Apple Cup. (In other, less meaningful conference action, Stanford meets Cal for the Big Game in Berkeley, while Arizona and Oregon State face off in Corvallis.)

The North's resolution is simple: as long as Washington beats ASU, the Apple Cup decides the division. In the South, assuming USC and Utah both win this week, things still hinge on the two Colorado contests. Colorado takes the division with two more wins; Utah also clinches with two more wins, while USC has to hope for a Colorado loss to WSU this week followed by a Buffs' win against Utah.

Heisman Watch

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Jackson has to be considered the runaway favorite at this point despite his merely average passing efficiency. Too many other contenders have stumbled (or lost games) to overcome his massive edge in stats.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama

Don't count Hurts out. In case anyone thought Bama couldn't pass, Hurts put on a show with nearly 350 yards and four touchdowns in a 51-3 annihilation of Mississippi State. The kid is good.

D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas

Foreman's 167 yards against West Virginia actually lowered his nation-best average to 179 yards per game, but never fear: Saturday brings the gloriously awful Kansas defense squarely into his sights. This should be fun.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington

Browning wasn't the main reason the Huskies lost to USC (pin that on the O-line and defense), but he certainly didn't help his case with by far his worst game of the season. Winning out should still put him in New York, but his chance at actually snagging the trophy might be gone.

Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan

I love Terrell's steadiness and efficiency, as he's scored 28 times this season and turned the ball over just twice (one fumble, one pick). He's sharp in the pocket and deceptively nimble, and as long as WMU stays undefeated, he's got to be here.

Random Thoughts and Observations

It's getting tougher to ignore the elephant in the room that is Louisville. The Cardinals have very little hope of winning a (bad) major conference, normally a death blow to an aspiring National Championship contender. However, the Cardinals have been the beneficiaries of an archaic, poll-era quirk that has the potential to cause a lost of consternation among fans: they lost early. Louisville reaped the huge benefit of blowing out Florida State in September, way back when the Seminoles were considered an elite team (whoops). That "quality win" has been boosting the team for almost two months, even after FSU has been fully revealed as a fraud.

Voters in the polls don't know what to do about this. The teams ahead of Louisville keep losing, so traditional logic says the Cardinals have to move up, all the way to number three this week. But my poll - and the Playoff Committee - don't work that way (and I think we're on the same page). Barring a stunning loss to Wake Forest this week, Clemson will win the ACC Atlantic division. That's going to leave the Cardinals out in the cold, even at 11-1, because the wins just aren't there. Look at the teams Louisville has beaten this year. Charlotte. Syracuse. Marshall. Duke. North Carolina State. Virginia. Boston College. Other than FSU, the team's best win was last week, when it beat 6-4 Wake Forest. Louisville didn't just play an ACC schedule, it played a bad ACC schedule against the dregs of the conference. The Cardinals missed the top five teams from the Coastal, drawing bottom-feeders Duke and Virginia. That's what's ultimately going to kill this team in the eyes of the Committee.

2016 Stanzi Awards

It was a quiet week for the Stanzis, although three of the four winners came by their awards in Double Stanzi games. This time it was USC's Sam Darnold who broke through to the finalists, no small feat when you consider he's only been starting for seven games. Well done, Sam! Here are this week's winners

Week 11 Awards

Trace McSorley, Penn State
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, won by 15

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Sam Darnold, USC
Opponent: Washington
Performance: Two INT, won by 13

Jake Browning, Washington
Opponent: USC
Performance: Two INT, lost by 13

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Skyler Howard, West Virginia
Opponent: Texas
Performance: Three INT, won by three

Shane Buechele, Texas
Opponent: West Virginia
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by three

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Austin Appleby, Florida
Opponent: South Carolina
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 13

Jake Bentley, South Carolina
Opponent: Florida
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by 13

2016 Finalists

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2

47 players: tied with 1


At this point, I'm not sure anyone will be able to catch Watson. The Clemson signal-caller already leads the pack with three weekly awards, but he also holds the tiebreaker in the form of his performance this week, when he tossed another three picks - including a back-breaker when the Tigers should have had the game in hand - to lose to Pitt. It'll fun to see if anyone can top that going forward.