Rivalry Week provided even more delights than anticipated, turning the long Thanksgiving holiday into a celebration of the best college football has to offer. There was some quality #MACtion in the mid-week, an Apple Cup coronation for Washington, Air Force taking out Boise State for the third straight year and Western Michigan finishing 12-0, all before Saturday!
The excitement continued into the weekend, with a thrilling finish at The Shoe, a nail-biter in Boulder, a huge upset from Kentucky and a plethora of photo-finishes in heated rivalry games. When the dust cleared, we had our division winners, though they didn't arrive without some blood, sweat and tears (and whining. Thanks, Jim Harbaugh).
Friday night marks the first time this season a team can truly lock up a spot in the Playoff, when Washington and Colorado meet in the Pac-12 Championship. If the Huskies win, they're in*. Colorado can still conceivably make the final four, but it would take a lot falling the right way for the Buffaloes. CU can dream, but it's unlikely.
*Provided there are no shenanigans from the Committee
Earlier in the evening, Ohio and Western Michigan will play for the MAC title. Fortunately, just as in the Pac-12, this will be a matchup of teams that didn't play in the regular season. WMU is the heavy favorite for a reason - the Broncos are aiming for 13-0, after all - and should win, but the pressure as the undefeated mid-major looking ahead to major-bowl glory has tripped up several teams in the past.
We kick off Saturday with two official conference championship games, along with another contest that will decide a league title. First, there's the delightful American Championship, pitting a pair of nine-win teams in Temple and Navy in Annapolis. The Midshipmen could complete a marvelous 11-2 campaign with wins here and against rival Army next week, while the Owls are looking to rebound from a loss in the title game last year. Navy is the slight favorite, and though I love this team, I have to pick against it. Temple has the third-best defense in the country behind Alabama and Michigan and should do enough to slow the option to secure the win.
Next, there's Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game. This should be a barnburner after Tech took the first meeting earlier in the year in a 55-52 shootout. Expect more of the same, as both the Bulldogs and Hilltoppers rank in the top 15 nationally in offense. Quarterbacks Mike White (WKU) and Ryan Higgins (LTU) will both top 4,000 yards passing by season's end, and both squads also boast 1,000-yard receivers and running backs. Ultimately, I like Western, playing at home, with a superior defense (a respectable 28th nationally), to prevail.
The Bedlam Game is in Norman this year, with Oklahoma rightly favored to rip off nine straight wins after that 1-2 nonconference performance. Oklahoma State is pretty good, and an upset of the Sooners - along with some Committee sympathy regarding that officiating fiasco in the Central Michigan game - could potentially put the Cowboys in the Playoff. The more likely scenario is OU simply winning out. Oklahoma won't make the CFP without a lot of help, though.
The midday slate should see another squad punch a ticket to the final four, when Alabama meets Florida in the SEC Championship for the second consecutive year. The Gators have a very good defense, but Bama's is better, and this matchup lost a lot of luster with UF's blowout loss to Florida State last week. Florida doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide, who should check another box on the "2016 National Championship Run" to-do list.
It would have been laughable before this season began to suggest the Mountain West title game would be held in Laramie, but that's where the league finds itself after Wyoming knocked off Boise State and San Diego State in the regular season to grab the tiebreaker over the Aztecs. The conference had a terrible day last Saturday, as all three of the aforementioned squads (the best teams in the MWC) lost, including blowouts for SDSU and Wyoming. Even though it's on the road, I like San Diego State to rebound from the loss to the Cowboys a few weeks back and claim back-to-back titles.
Prime time brings the final two games, and possibly the other two Playoff bids, into the spotlight. The ACC Championship should be a mere coronation as Clemson takes on a highly flawed Virginia Tech team. The Big Ten title game is another story. Wisconsin won the weaker division, but played the two best teams in the East, so the schedule difference is moot. The Badgers were clearly the best squad over the first half of the season. Penn State was the better team over the second half, but it remains to be seen how much of that was because of a weak schedule. Wisconsin has the superior defense; PSU, the superior offense. I think the Nittany Lions are more likely to win.
The question is, what does that mean for the Playoff?
Playoff Poll
Things have gotten very interesting.
First Tier
Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Ohio State
Here's the problem with the Big Ten getting two teams in: Ohio State would be bypassing a Power Five champion to do so. Alabama and Clemson are locks with wins this week; Washington is only slightly less so. If OSU is getting in, it should be at the expense of its own conference winner. Anything else would be an outrage.
Second Tier
Penn State
Wisconsin
If the Nittany Lions win, they'll have a better argument for jumping the Buckeyes thanks to their head-to-head triumph. If the Badgers win, their argument is weaker, given that they lost to OSU. Both teams would benefit significantly from a Colorado win Friday.
Third Tier
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colorado
Western Michigan
The Sooners need help. As in, Alabama, Clemson and Washington all losing kind of help. Okie State needs even more. Colorado would have an argument with a win, but only a slim one (that loss to USC was killer). As for WMU, well, we can always dream.
Pac-12 Report
As expected, USC and Stanford won their non-league contests. I predicted Cal would beat UCLA, resulting in a needed coaching change in L.A., but even I didn't expect the 36-10 thrashing the Bears laid on the Bruins. Arizona running all over ASU was also a bit unexpected, but Oregon State knocking off Oregon wasn't.
Fortunately, the two best teams won, so we were at least gifted with a legitimate conference title game. Washington hadn't looked that good against a quality opponent in some time, so good on the Huskies for showing up in a big way just in time for the Committee to take note. Colorado suffered some very noticeable big-game jitters, dropping passes all over the place, fumbling and allowing special-teams breakdowns. In the end, however, the Buffs got a deserved victory to complete the comeback story of the year in college football.
It's worth stating once again what a remarkable turnaround this has been. Colorado won five games (five!) in its first five SEASONS in the Pac-12. Just last year, the Buffaloes went 1-8 in conference play. This season saw CU go a magical 8-1 and vanquish a decades' worth of demons en route to the South title. It's been amazing to watch, and if it doesn't earn Mike MacIntyre national Coach of the Year honors the award means nothing.
I feel it's necessary to reiterate these things because the charmed ride probably comes to an end Friday in Santa Clara. Make no mistake: Colorado is good enough to beat Washington. The secret to the Buffs' success has been their lockdown defense, which was the best in the conference this season, beating out even Washington's (despite coming against a tougher schedule). CU's offense is no joke, either. But after a meltdown against USC and a shaky start with ASU, UW has come roaring back to life.
The Huskies again look like the unquestioned best team in the Pac-12, and after a pair of close, emotionally-charged games at home the past two weeks, Colorado is ripe for a first-quarter reality check. That may not have cost them against a bad offensive team in Utah, but it will against Washington. The Huskies are balanced and explosive offensively, and their superior talent level on the lines will make this game an uphill battle for the Buffs. I can envision scenarios that end in Colorado wins (and what a story that would be!), but the more likely outcome is that Washington will be the Pac-12 champion.
Heisman Watch
D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
Barring an incredible performance this week, the Heisman should be Foreman's. It's amazing to think Derrick Henry could win the award last year with inferior numbers running behind Alabama's line, while Foreman might not even make the ceremony despite carrying the inept Longhorns with a nation-leading 2,028 yards in just 11 games.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Back to his usual efficient, defense-shredding ways, Browing made the Apple Cup a laugher in the first quarter thanks to three quick touchdown passes. He's now just the third QB in Pac-12 history with at least 40 TD's in a season, and another nice performance against Colorado's stout D should earn him a trip to New York.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
He threw two early picks against Auburn as Bama got off to a slow start, then guided the Crimson Tide to a comfortable 30-12 win over their rival. Hurts has performed at a level far beyond his years this season, but even so, a game like he had last week should have dropped him in the rankings. It would have, if not for...
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
It's a testament to Jackson's prolific numbers that he even remains on the list. No Heisman winner has ever had a two-game stretch to end the season as bad as the one Jackson just had, capped by a four-turnover disaster in the second half to lose to Kentucky at home. This guy is going to win the Heisman? Get out of here.
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
With a masterful 19-for-25, three-TD effort in WMU's thrashing of Toledo, Terrell finishes the regular season with 30 TD passes to just one interception. It's inconceivable that the most important player in Broncos history would miss out on the ceremony, but I doubt he'll receive enough late-ballot votes to get there.
Random Thoughts and Observations
How's that nine-game schedule treating you, Big Ten? In the very first year since moving up to an adult schedule, the conference suffered controversy and agony as the third- and fourth-best teams in the league ended up playing for the title. This is what can happen when you ask your schools to actually play the majority of their peers. Who knows what happens if Ohio State doesn't have to travel to West division winner Wisconsin a week before losing at Penn State, or how Michigan fares without that late-season slugest at cross-division foe Iowa? In previous years, such matchups might have been avoided.
The Big 12 has felt the pain of a nine-game conference slate in recent years. In a bit of delicious irony, the league that claimed it didn't need another conference game because of its title contest immediately rebranded with the slogan "ONE TRUE CHAMPION" upon dropping to 10 members - then promptly awarded TCU and Baylor a co-championship in 2014 and missed the initial Playoff entirely. It turns out that, yes, forcing the entire league to play an additional game within the conference makes things more difficult on the national level.
Of course, the Pac-12 is well familiar with this, having adopted the nine-game schedule in 2006, long before the other Power conferences ever dreamed of it. It's been devastating to the league's national championship hopes; in 2006 (USC), 2008 (USC), 2011 (Oregon), 2012 (Oregon), and 2015 (Stanford), the Pac-12 champ suffered a conference loss that kept it out of the BCS Championship or Playoff. The effect has been so detrimental there have been calls for the Pac-12 to return to an eight-game schedule, but with the Big 12 - and more importantly, the Big Ten - now on board, it seems much more likely this is a route all conferences will ultimately be forced to choose.
It's certainly the way the ACC is going to have to go. The SEC has long maintained its internal quality excuses it from such lesser-conference trivialities, but if the other four Power conferences band together the SEC will eventually have no choice. That's means it's up to the ACC to get with the program, and as I said, it simply has to happen soon. Clemson's run will end this year, and there are no future guaranteed Playoff entrants from the ACC. With nearly half a conference of dead weight/basketball schools, it's already the weakest of the Power Five on a year-by-year basis, and an eight-game schedule is going to cost the league a final four spot in the very near future. The smart, proactive move would be to go to nine games at the earliest possible date (probably 2018). But we'll see if it takes missing out on the Playoff first.
2016 Stanzi Awards
What a send-off! After the quietest week of the season, Week 13 came through with three individual awards and a trio of Double Stanzis, including two that landed their heroes squarely on the short list for the ultimate trophy. There's only one more week, but enough finalists are still playing that there's some intrigue left. Can someone come from behind and steal this thing from Deshaun Watson?
Week 13 Awards
Dane Evans, Tulsa
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh
Opponent: Syracuse
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 15
David Washington, Old Dominion
Opponent: Florida International
Performance: One INT (for TD), two FUM, won by 14
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Sefo Liufao, Colorado
Opponent: Utah
Performance: Two FUM, won by five
Troy Williams, Utah
Opponent: Colorado
Performance: Two INT, lost by five
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Richard Lagow, Indiana
Opponent: Purdue
Performance: Three INT, won by two
David Blough, Purdue
Opponent: Indiana
Performance: Two INT, lost by two
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Matt Linehan, Idaho
Opponent: South Alabama
Performance: Three INT, wony by seven
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: Idaho
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven
2016 Finalists
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Richard Lagow, Indiana: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 2
Sam Darnold, USC: 2
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
51 players: tied with 1
Look at that! 12 multiple-award finalists, 51 other one-off efforts, and a down-to-the-wire race that won't be settled until the conference championships end. This has been a season for the ages, one that will go down in Stanzi lore.
No comments:
Post a Comment