It was a relatively quiet, though revealing, Week Nine. Virginia Tech continued its under-the-radar march toward the conference title game in the ACC, as did Navy and Temple in the American. Boise State bowed out of the Playoff chase with a close loss at Wyoming, which revealed another interesting tidbit: the Cowboys are probably going to win the division over the Broncos, robbing us of a potentially awesome Boise State - San Diego State showdown for the Mountain West Championship.
Alabama was off, so there was no drama to be had atop the polls, but as the next five teams in the rankings all won, so too did they all show off their shortcomings in ugly fashion. Michigan went up big on Michigan State, but failed to look like an elite team in a nine-point win over the hapless Spartans. Clemson needed some questionable officiating to beat Florida State, as did Washington in its victory over Utah. Louisville scored with 13 seconds left to escape Virginia, one of the worst Power Five teams in the country. Ohio State barely beat Northwestern.
These are the teams challenging Alabama? Good lord. Let's just crown the Crimson Tide and be done with it. Nobody has the offense to beat Bama, while the list of teams that have a good enough defense to merely hang with the Tide has shrunk considerably (Michigan, Florida, perhaps Washington). It's not a pretty picture.
Even Wisconsin, which finally broke through against another high-ranked team, was underwhelming against a Nebraska squad that hasn't beaten anyone of note. Tennessee also quietly removed itself from a longshot at the SEC East crown with a road loss to South Carolina. And oh yes, the Big 12 is out, out, out after unbeatens West Virginia and Baylor fell. We're down to five undefeated teams, with Western Michigan of the MAC joining the leaders of the four real Power conferences.
Sadly, the Broncos' chances for the Playoff are slim. Despite beating Northwestern in similar fashion to Ohio State (but on the road, unlike OSU) and blowing out Illinois just as Michigan did (once again: on the road, unlike UM), WMU's MAC schedule isn't sexy enough for voters or the committee. It's a real shame, because the Broncos (my pick to win the league!) have a good defense and a remarkably efficient offense led by senior quarterback Zach Terrell, another in a long line of solid MAC passers. Terrell's 23:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio leads the country, and the Broncos have turned the ball over only three times in nine games this season. WMU will need chaos in the major conferences to have a shot at the Playoff, though.
The usual late-season midweek MAC craziness is upon us, with three games total on Tuesday and Wednesday before one more each on Thursday and Friday. Other than Western Michigan (which hammered Ball State Tuesday night) there's little of interest there. However, Thursday night does bring us a pivotal Pac-12 South game when UCLA travels to division leader (?!) Colorado. The Buffs must - and should - win to maintain the lead in the South.
A very interesting early game Saturday morning in Jacksonville features Navy and Notre Dame, and it's not a stretch to say the result could decide Brian Kelly's fate in South Bend. It's one thing to lose a bunch of close games against a tough schedule, but a loss to a service academy (albeit an excellent one superior to every other team ND has played) would be devastating.
Another delightful Saturday morning matchup involving academies is the second of the three Commander-in-Chief's Trophy battles this year, pitting Air Force against Army at West Point. And hey, Army is kind of good this year! Both teams come in with 5-3 records, but the Falcons hold the upper hand after knocking off Navy earlier in the season (the Midshipmen's only loss until last week). I love the rivalry between the service schools, and this should be a good one.
Unfortunately, that's more or less it for the morning and midday slate. There are a handful of so-so matchups across the ACC and Big Ten, but outside of a colossal upset I can't endorse watching any of those games. BYU - Cincinnati at 12:30 could be good, and Florida has a potentially tricky game at Arkansas, but I'm not holding my breath.
The afternoon schedule is a little more sprightly, with Iowa - Penn State, disappointing Georgia at surprising Kentucky, and the two big 'uns: Alabama at LSU and Nebraska at Ohio State. I find LSU and Nebraska's rankings (13th and 10th, respectively) more than a little suspect, but you never know. The return of Leonard Fournette last week breathed some life into LSU, to put it mildly, and OSU has been pretty shaky lately, even if it is against a Cornhuskers squad without a quality win this year. Keep an eye on the Washington - Cal nightcap, too. The Huskies are coming off a physical, draining game in Salt Lake City and now have to defend the fourth-ranked passing offense in the nation.
Playoff Poll
This past week only served to illustrate, yet again, how wide the gap is between Alabama and everyone else.
First Tier
Alabama
Michigan
Clemson
Washington
After Bama the order gets confusing. Michigan has played a cushy-soft schedule thus far, but looked the best doing it. Clemson and Washington both needed help from the officials to win last week, but both were also clearly the better team(s). The Tigers are the squad most likely to lose; Washington is the one with the most to prove.
Second Tier
Ohio State
Florida
Texas A&M
Ohio State has the easiest route of any one-loss team: win out, and the Buckeyes are in the Playoff. The same applies to the Gators, although that would include a victory over Alabama. A&M is in a strange spot; the Aggies will get jumped if Washington wins out, but a three-way tie atop the SEC West (if Auburn beats Alabama) could put the team in the Playoff.
Third Tier
Louisville
Western Michigan
Auburn
I continue to rank Louisville lower than the polls because the simple fact is that the Cardinals have the worst odds out of the one-loss (Power Five) teams. Clemson, having defeated FSU, now has to lose two times against the combination of Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest just for Louisville to make the ACC title game. It's highly unlikely. I covered WMU earlier; Auburn, as I said above, has a shot in a three-way SEC West tiebreaker scenario, but the Tigers' second loss would make them a longshot.
Pac-12 Report
The results were all as expected last week, though not all in the fashion the betting lines predicted. The most important contest for the league ended in exactly - some might say suspiciously - the way the Pac-12 could have asked, with Washington beating Utah on a late punt return score. Set aside the gratuitous uncalled blocks in the back on the Huskies' winning TD, though. The final score of that game was irrelevant. What was more notable was the fact that Washington NEEDED that play to beat a decent, but not elite, Utes squad. It reinforced the notion that the Pac-12 is down (it is) and that even an unbeaten conference champ won't be able to hang in the Playoff (it probably won't).
Now, that's not to say UW fans should fret about the Playoff rankings. There's still a month-plus before the final Playoff rankings, and if Washington wins out it WILL be in the final four. The Pac-12 may be down, but college football still places a premium on a zero in the loss column, and it would be unprecedented for an unbeaten major-conference champion to get snubbed for a one-loss division runner-up in another league. The "control your own destiny" narrative is alive and well in the sport. Of course, that doesn't answer the question of whether the Pac-12 might be better off missing the Playoff.
Would it be the worst thing in the world if the league missed out this season? 2016 is a down year for college football, and there's a very slim chance anyone is going to knock off mighty Alabama. Might it not be more beneficial for the Pac-12 to miss the Playoff and be able to rant and rail against the decision rather than see Washington get throttled by 30 at the hands of the Crimson Tide? It's hard to say which scenario would hurt the conference more.
In any case, the Huskies had better stay focused on things current, because Cal's offense is no joke (although its defense certainly is). It's not easy to turn around from a tough game on the road at Utah, then have to go on the road again a week later and to chase around the Bears' receivers for four quarters. UW should still win, but this definitely falls into "letdown game" territory.
Thursday night is the beginning of the conference slate, when Colorado looks to move to 5-1 in the Pac-12 with a win over UCLA. The Buffaloes should be able to take care of business here. It appears Bruins QB Josh Rosen will miss the rest of the season, and though backup Mike Fafaul isn't as bad as his stat line indicates, you really can't spin four picks against Utah in any kind of positive way. CU should get the win at home.
Oregon State is at Stanford in the midday timeslot Saturday, one week after the Beavers let a big lead and likely win over Washington State slip from their fingers. Stanford has been in dire straights offensively all year, and I doubt the Cardinal will put up that many points without the help of its defense. OSU has also looked markedly better in the past two weeks, so I don't want to count the Beavs out. However, after an emotional loss like the one it suffered, it's hard to pick Oregon State on the road.
The other midday contest is Arizona at Washington State for a battle of teams going in opposite directions. Zona is 0-5 in the Pac-12 and Wazzu is 5-0. Moreover, Arizona teams tend to struggle on the road in Pullman, especially in November. This should be a blowout for the Cougars. The only thing that gives me pause is WSU's recent performances. After awesome beatdowns of Oregon and Stanford, the Cougs barely held off heavily injured foes in UCLA and ASU and should have lost last week to Oregon State, the league's least talented team. I need to see Wazzu put the Wildcats away early.
The final game is the afternoon one, as Oregon travels to USC to face an SC team that has won four straight. True, the Trojans were on a similar roll last year before the Ducks stopped them in their tracks in Eugene, but it would be an understatement to say the situation is a bit different this season. UO is hanging by a thread right now, even after last week's win over injury-riddled Arizona State. Oregon remains potent offensively, but SC's superior O-line should mow down the Ducks' young, small defensive front and keep QB Justin Herbert and all those speedsters on the sideline. I see the Ducks having to play catch-up most of the game, which doesn't bode well, although it's always possible the Trojans are due for one of their familiar flops.
Heisman Watch
The race has become a bit stale now that the same handful of players are more or less in a holding pattern.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington
Browning's outsize passing TD number - 28, to just 1,800 yards - demonstrates the remarkable efficiency of the UW passer, especially given the style of offense in which he plays. His low interception total (3) and team's record (8-0) makes him the leader.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama
Alabama was idle, so, in the absence of any incredible performances elsewhere, Hurts gets to maintain his position.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Jackson's numbers were good Saturday, but they were earned while digging his team out of the hole he put them in with his turnovers. You don't get rewarded for a Stanzi performance.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Clemson escaped again, and Watson was again not very good, earning yet another Stanzi in the close call. Like Jackson, he won't be rewarded for it.
Zach Terrell, QB, Western Michigan
The ceiling for almost every smaller-school QB is an invite to New York, and Terrell should get one with the way he's playing, particularly if WMU goes 13-0. The Broncos' offense isn't the wide-open, air-it-out attack you'd expect from a traditional mid-major power, yet Terrell is second in the nation in passing percentage, fourth in passer rating, and has an unreal 23:1 TD-to-INT ratio.
Random Thoughts and Observations
On the one hand, it was irritating to see Ohio State fall only four spots after losing to Penn State last week and Texas A&M in the inital Playoff this week. In years past losing to an unranked opponent would have dropped you out of the top 10 entirely, and a one-loss Power Five team would have never leapfrogged an undefeated one. What we're seeing here, though, is less corruption and favoritism and more a shift in voting toward a better, more transparent future.
Everyone can agree it was frustrating to see TCU sit at fourth in the Playoff rankings for weeks at the end of the 2014 season (the first year of the Playoff), only to get jumped at the last second by Ohio State. It raised questions about why the committee didn't just rank the Buckeyes there all along, if they were going to throw OSU in at the last minute anyway. But the committee's methodology was sound. It allowed Ohio State to earn that spot with big wins in its final two games (Michigan, then Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship). I see the committee doing the same thing to Washington now.
The fact of the matter is (despite how I ranked the teams in my poll) Texas A&M currently does have a better resume than Washington. My hand-wringing on this subject in recent weeks should have made this apparent, but here's a reminder: Washington expected - and needed - Stanford and Oregon to be at least good, if not great. Neither has exceeded mediocre. Both those early wins have been rendered useless. The overtime victory over Arizona to start Pac-12 play looks even worse now, which means the Huskies' entire rep rests on their narrow, ref-aided defeat of a decent-but-not-special Utah squad just last weekend.
It isn't UW's fault that the conference has let it down this year. Undefeated is undefeated. But, to paraphrase "Animal Farm", some undefeateds are more equal than others. There's a reason why Washington is the lowest-ranked unbeaten Power Five team. Texas A&M's schedule to this point, which includes a double-digit triumph at Auburn and two other quality wins over Arkansas and Tennessee, has been much tougher than the Huskies'. The Aggies even led in the third quarter at Alabama. So yes, A&M does deserve respect.
Just as in 2014, though, that respect will run out just in time for the Playoff (provided Washington wins out, of course). Ohio State eventually jumped TCU (and Baylor) by the virtue of snagging one additional win and being the undisputed Big Ten champion. An undefeated UW squad would have 13 wins to A&M's 11, zero losses to one, and a division AND conference championship to boot. It would be a unanimous decision by the committee. So don't worry, Huskies. Just take care of business.
2016 Stanzi Awards
It was yet another strong week in the Year of the Stanzi. Deshaun Watson continued his tear by snagging another weekly award, while Houston's Greg Ward and UCF's McKenzie Milton staged an epic slap-fight with a combined seven turnovers. What a delightful week!
Week Nine Awards
Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Opponent: Florida State
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
Opponent: TCU
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three in double overtime
Ben Hicks, SMU
Opponent: Tulane
Performance: Two INT, won by four
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Opponent: Virginia
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven
Kurt Benkert, Virginia
Opponent: Louisville
Performance: Two INT, lost by seven
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Greg Ward, Jr., Houston
Opponent: UCF
Performance: Three INT, one FUM, won by seven
McKenzie Milton, UCF
Opponent: Houston
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, lost by seven
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Nick Holley, Kent State
Opponent: Central Michigan
Performance: One INT (for TD), one FUM, won by three
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan
Opponent: Kent State
Performance: Three INT, lost by three
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Ahmad Bradshaw, Army
Opponent: Wake Forest
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by eight
John Wolford, Wake Forest
Opponent: Army
Performance: Three INT, lost by eight
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State
Opponent: Samford
Perfomance: Two INT, won by 15
Devlin Hodges, Samford
Opponent: Mississippi State
Performance: Three INT (one for TD), lost by 15
2016 Standings
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 3
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Ben Hicks, SMU: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1
Kenny Hill, TCU: 1
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Sam Darnold, USC: 1
Eric Dungey, Syracuse: 1
Lamar Jackson, Louisville: 1
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 1
Dru Brown, Hawai'i: 1
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 1
Phillip Walker, Temple: 1
Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State: 1
Kevin Ellison, Georgia Southern: 1
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan: 1
Nick Holley, Kent State: 1
Darrell Gerretson, Oregon State: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1
Taysom Hill, BYU: 1
Ryan Burns, Stanford: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Stephen Johnson, Kentucky: 1
Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Jesse Ertz, Kansas State: 1
Ahmad Bradshaw, Army: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Luke Falk, Washington State: 1
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
Deondre Francois, Florida State: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
David Blough, Purdue: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Quinton Flowers, South Florida: 1
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan: 1
Next week will signal the end of the "regular season", as the list will get trimmed to include just the finalists with multiple wins. Late-season awards will still apply, but for space's sake all the one-time winners will be ommitted. Deshaun Watson is the clubhouse leader once again!
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