Buck In Smoke

National Overview

So much for maintaining order. There have been signs the currently unfolding season is a mediocre one, but there seemed hope we might get four unbeaten major-conference champions to fill out the Playoff field. While that scenario is technically still in play, Ohio State's loss throws a major wrench into the plan. No offense to Michigan, but OSU was the best bet to emerge unscathed from the Big Ten.

It's surprising the Buckeyes lost, given how much more talent they have compared to the rest of the conference. However, it's also not shocking, given how average OSU looked the past few weeks. In all likelihood, this setback will galvanize the Urban Meyer-coached squad much as the team's early 2014 loss did, with the Buckeyes running the table the rest of the way. The difference this time, and the reason a quality Playoff is in danger of disappearing, is that the Big Ten isn't the tire fire it was two years ago.

Wisconsin is at least pretty good. Nebraska hasn't played anyone but is decent. Michigan is much better than it was in 2014. Ohio State's route to another backdoor title is littered with mines far more deadly than before, and it's not as if the Buckeyes looked all that good even in their recent wins.

The biggest beneficiaries from the Penn State upset are Washington and the Big 12 champion, as long as that champion isn't Oklahoma. I remain highly skeptical of Baylor and West Virginia's chances to go unbeaten, but it is possible. The Big Ten, meanwhile, now has to pin all its hopes on Michigan, because nobody believes in Nebraska (and rightly so).

I was impressed to see Texas A&M battle back from an ugly first half to take a brief lead at Alabama, but the Crimson Tide did what they so often do and wore down their overmatched opponent after the break. There is still a scenario in which A&M could make the Playoff as a second SEC team, but the loss wasn't close enough for that to happen unless a whole lot falls the Aggies' way.

Thursday night holds a key ACC battle in Week Nine, with Virginia Tech looking to maintain the lead in the Coastal on the road at Pitt. The Hokies have already crushed the two other most talented teams in the division (Miami (FL), North Carolina) and should be more or less in the clear with a win this week. The Panthers are also still in contention in the division, but face a brutal three-game stretch against VaTech, Miami and Clemson.

On Friday we see another big showdown in the AAC, where Navy can essentially clinch the West with a victory at South Florida. The Bulls are reeling after their first league loss to Temple but remain one of the conference's best teams. This is a fun clash of styles that should prove very entertaining.

The pickings are slim Saturday morning, although undefeated West Virginia's visit to Oklahoma State should be some classic defense-optional Big 12 nuttiness. The weekend really starts in the midday slot, when Pac-12 North leader Washington takes on South co-leader Utah (more on this in the Pac-12 section). We'll also see how Ohio State rebounds at home versus Northwestern.

Boise State is at Wyoming in a potential trap game, as the Cowboys are 3-0 in Mountain West play and have a tricky homefield environment. After nearly losing last week to BYU, the Broncos had better be ready. We also have a "show-me" game in the form of Nebraska at Wisconsin, where I expect the Cornhuskers to get exposed.

In prime time, the long-awaited Clemson - Florida State showdown has arrived with less-then-dramatic fanfare. The Seminoles' two previous losses have soured this one a bit, but the erratic Tigers had better come ready to play. This is exactly the kind of game the old Clemson would lose.

Playoff Poll

Apparently there's still one doofy holdout in the AP poll who needs convincing, but the rest of the country was already on board before Alabama dropped Texas A&M by 19. This is the best team in the country by a massive margin.

First Tier

Alabama
Michigan
Clemson
Washington

After the Crimson Tide, Michigan flips spots with Ohio State thanks to the benefit of having soundly defeated the team that upset the Buckeyes. Clemson gets to hang around because the Tigers have actually beaten someone, while Washington moves into the Playoff for the first time.

Second Tier

Ohio State
Florida

Scoff if you like, but if Ohio State wins out it will be in the Playoff. OSU has the advantage of having yet to play its best opponent and division rival, unlike the situations with Louisville and Texas A&M. Florida is still a dark-horse candidate, but it's never smart to underestimate the Gators.

Third Tier

Baylor
West Virginia
Boise State
Western Michigan
Utah

This group could have swelled even larger, but I had to cut it off at some point. Together, Baylor and WVU represent the wild card in this operation, yet if either runs the table - looking somewhat more likely of late - it'd be hard to exclude that team. As I said last week, Boise State and WMU are the mid-major hopefuls, while Utah, extremely improbable though it may be, could sneak in with one loss (largely because that would include two wins over Washington).

Pac-12 Report

No big shock to see the Oregon schools lose, or to see Cal and Oregon stage a back-and-forth shootout. It was more surprising to see Utah score 50, and moreover, that UCLA was the opponent giving up those points. Washington State had to once again hold off an inferior opponent late to prevail, but the big news of the week had to be Colorado getting to bowl eligibility.

It cannot be overstated how bad the Buffaloes were upon entering the new Pac-12. CU was getting thrashed by 30 and 40 points on a regular basis, and looked generally unprepared to play in a major conference despite ostensibly coming from one. From 2011 (the year Colorado came over from the Big 12) through last year, the Buffs went an unfathomable 5-40 in conference play. Now, if this team beats UCLA at home next Thursday, it will have equaled in 2016 its total number of Pac-12 wins through its first five seasons in the league. That's remarkable.

With the Buffaloes and Bruins both idle this week, though, we kick off the conference slate Thursday night at the Coliseum, where USC will host a surprising Cal team. The Trojans appear to once again be putting things together after a disappointing start, and I expect them to continue this roll against the Bears. Cal's defense is just so awful.

The only truly good game on the schedule is the first one Saturday, as Washington puts its perfect season on the line against a battered, battle-tested Utah squad. Make no mistake - the Utes should probably be undefeated, and boast a tough defense along with a nasty homefield advantage. But UW is rested, has an even better defense, and brings to Salt Lake City 2016's best pure passer. It's hard to imagine Utah's ugly offense having much success moving the ball against the tenacious Husky D.

In the afternoon, we have a bit of a puzzler in Arizona State at Oregon. The Ducks are reeling, losers of five straight and owners of the nation's worst defense. However, the Sun Devils are no great shakes themselves on that side of the ball, ranking 120th, and the UO offense is significantly better than ASU's. This seems to be a perfect setup for the home team to break out of its season-long slump, but after the past month its pretty hard to pick Oregon to beat anybody.

There are a pair of late games in Washington State - Oregon State and Stanford - Arizona. Neither is very interesting. Despite a couple of underwhelming performances Wazzu should be (and is) a big favorite in Corvallis, while Stanford, for all of its foibles, should still be able to take care of a rudderless Arizona squad. I could see both home teams winning, but in all likelihood the Cougars and Cardinal will win out.

Heisman Watch

The two biggest deciders right now are individual performance and team success, which makes the top two sort of no-brainers.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington

A pass-efficiency rating of nearly 200. A 26:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. An undefeated, top-five squad poised to make a stunning leap from seven wins to the Playoff in just one season. Browning is the face of Washington's turnaround.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Alabama

Hurts doesn't have nearly as much on his plate as the other contenders, but all that goes out the window once you watch the guy play. He's already the most dangerous quarterback in the Saban era; voters are going to want to reward this team for its dominance.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

ACC defenses are... not much to write home about. Lousiville needs help to get back into Playoff consideration. Still, it's possible Jackson might literally overwhelm voters with a statistical explosion.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson got a much-needed break ahead of the FSU showdown, so we'll see if he can use that rest to bolster his flagging campaign. After the slow start to this year, he certainly needs it.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Nebraska is 7-0 and ranked seventh in the AP poll, tied for sixth in the coaches' poll. Yet the Cornhuskers don't even appear in my third tier of Playoff contenders. What gives? Well, as I've mentioned before, Nebraska hasn't played anyone. The Cornhuskers jumped into the polls in the strength of beating a ranked Oregon team... at home... by three. In retrospect, it looks more than a little ridiculous. That close loss in Lincoln was actually the best Oregon performance in the Ducks' current five-game slide, while NU has gone on to defeat Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana and Purdue, Big Ten teams with a combined 12-16 record. What a murderer's row!

The Cornhuskers' last three road games come against their three best opponents (Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa). Even in the extremely unlikely scenario the team navigates that slate with less than two losses, it would still have to face Michigan in the Big Ten title game. To put it simply: it ain't happening. Nebraska isn't bad by any means, but the final month of the season is going to expose the Huskers.

There are a couple of truly mind-boggling stats from the Pac-12 that have to be addressed. As of the end of Week Eight, Stanford ranks dead last - 128th in the country - in total offense. Oregon is 128th in total defense. The Cardinal and Ducks have, alternately, ruled the conference since 2009. How did this happen?

Beyond the obvious explanations of recruiting issues and the rest of the league rising to Stanford and Oregon's level, the answer seems pretty clear: hubris. Both programs enjoyed tremendous, unprecedented success in the past seven seasons. Both programs assumed they were so far ahead of the game in the Pac-12 they could simply continue doing what they'd been doing and things would stay the same. And both programs carried out those arrogant plans to their predictable endgames.

Stanford, having gotten by offensively for years with a strong O-line and some timely-if-erratic QB play, saw that well dry up when Kevin Hogan finally left town. Suddenly opponents no longer respected the Cardinal passing attack, rendering RB Christian McCaffrey completely ineffective. Couple that with an inability to replace all those NFL line talents and a regression to the mean on defense, and you've got a recipe for disaster.

Oregon's fall has been more dramatic, though in the Ducks' case it rests far less on the program's inability to develop a passer in-house. UO stopped blowing people out in the first half, which led to a more tired defense that gave up more points, which led to an offense that had to deal with increased pressure to score, which led to a worse defense when that didn't happen, and so on. As with Stanford, recruiting poorly (this time on defense) came back to bite the Ducks.

When it comes to righting the ship, it's hard to say where where both teams should start. Coaching changes? Possibly, although quick-fix firings almost always turn out poorly. Things are different now that Washington, a favorite whipping boy of the Cardinal and Ducks, has thrown off the shackles of its 15-year self-inflicted purgatory. It's unlikely we'll ever get back to the days when Stanford and UO ruled the Pac-12 (and the North division) with iron fists. As it stands now, both schools are in need of some soul-searching to find the will to rebuild these messes - just as the Huskies did.

2016 Stanzi Awards

After the two most prolific weeks in Stanzi history, Week Eight couldn't quite live up to recent precedent. Still, we got three Double Stanzis and a quintet of individual awards to keep up what's been the best year in the award's history.

Week Eight Awards

Brett Rypien, Boise State
Opponent: BYU
Performance: Two INT (both for TD's), won by one

Zach Terrell, Western Michigan
Opponent: Eastern Michigan
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 14

Jesse Ertz, Kansas State
Opponent: Texas
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Stephen Johnson, Kentucky
Opponent: South Carolina
Performance: Two FUM (one for TD), won by two

Kevin Ellison, Georgia Southern
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Troy Williams, Utah
Opponent: UCLA
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

Mike Fafaul, UCLA
Opponent: Utah
Performance: Four INT, one FUM, lost by seven

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Eric Dungey, Syracuse
Opponent: Boston College
Performance: One INT, two FUM, won by eight

Patrick Towles, Boston College
Opponent: Syracuse
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by eight

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Dru Brown, Hawai'i
Opponent: Air Force
Performance: Two INT, won by seven in double overtime

Nate Romine, Air Force
Opponent: Hawai'i
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by seven in double OT

2016 Standings

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 2
Troy Williams, Utah: 2
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 2
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 2
Riley Neal, Ball State: 2
Alex McGough, Florida International: 2
Kenny Hill, TCU: 1
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Sam Darnold, USC: 1
Eric Dungey, Syracuse: 1
Justice Hansen, Arkansas State: 1
Dru Brown, Hawai'i: 1
Phillip Walker, Temple: 1
Kevin Ellison, Georgia Southern: 1
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan: 1
Darrell Gerretson, Oregon State: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 1
Taysom Hill, BYU: 1
Ryan Burns, Stanford: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Stephen Johnson, Kentucky: 1
Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Jesse Ertz, Kansas State: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Luke Falk, Washington State: 1
Bryant Shirreffs, Connecticut: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
Deondre Francois, Florida State: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
David Blough, Purdue: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Quinton Flowers, South Florida: 1
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan: 1


Welcome to the party, Boise State's Brett Rypien and Utah's Troy Williams! The list of multiple-week winners has now swelled to seven! 2016 has been something special.