National Overview
It's been a wild two weeks since the beginning of my Hawai'i sojourn. From Louisville's stunning annihilation of Florida State to Colorado's surprising rise to the top of the Pac-12 South, there's a lot to go over. Stanford moved into the top five, then proved to be a fraud. Texas and Notre Dame, participants in that great opening weekend contest, were similarly exposed. And Tennessee - stumbling, bumbling Tennessee - has seemingly cashed in years of bad luck for a shot at an improbably charmed 2016 campaign.
The Pac-12 has been turned upside-down, with Washington leading the North and the aforementioned Buffaloes atop the South. Clemson has somehow parlayed a shaky early-season start into a 5-0 record, while Texas A&M and Alabama seem destined for a clash to decide SEC supremacy. The Big Ten stills seems to be the property of Ohio State and Michigan.
The most surprising part of the first month of the season is not which squads have risen to the top, but the long list of teams that have disappointed. LSU. Oregon. FSU. Michigan State. USC. Notre Dame. Oklahoma. Texas. Varying degrees of success were predicted for this group, but the uniting theme is underachievement.
Meanwhile, the select few keeping chugging along. Alabama continues to look like the monolithic juggernaut pundits expected. Ohio State, despite replacing the majority of its starters, appears dominant again. Clemson weathered that rough start (and a rough second half) to top Louisville and stay on track for the ACC crown. And oh yes, Houston keeps quietly moving toward snagging that first Playoff spot for a non-Power Five school. There's a lot of football left to play, but as my initial rankings will show, those are currently the teams in line for a National Championship.
This week, there's a crucial early AAC matchup between Temple and Memphis on Thursday night to set us up for the weekend. The classic Red River Shootout (once again, I refuse to use the term "Red River Rivalry") between Oklahoma and Texas kicks us off Saturday morning, with both teams desperately in need of a rivalry game win. LSU is at Florida at the same time for a very intriguing SEC showdown that could offer insight into whether the Tigers are really ready to break out with Les Miles gone. That thrashing of Mizzou seems to indicate that might be the case.
In the midday slate, Houston tries to move to 6-0 on the road against a dangerous Navy squad, while Virginia Tech and North Carolina face off in Chapel Hill in a battle of ranked teams. Tennessee and Texas A&M meet in College Station for perhaps the weekend's best game, and Colorado will attempt to clear another big hurdle with a win at USC.
Later on, Alabama will look to bludgeon Arkansas back out of the top 25 on the road. Wounded Florida State will travel to rival Miami (FL) for an important ACC matchup (also in primetime), while the nightcap offers a pair of potentially wild Pac-12 games in UCLA - Arizona State and Washington State - Stanford. It promises to be a quality slate.
Playoff Poll
Here we go. I always wait until the end of September to debut my Playoff rankings, so my brief hiatus came at a perfect time. There are plenty of unanswered questions for the teams here, but for now the first tier, at least, is pretty clear-cut.
First Tier
Alabama
Ohio State
Clemson
Houston
Alabama holds the top spot until it looks human, while Ohio State has been the only team in reasonable proximity to the Crimson Tide thus far. Clemson has a better win than OSU, but the Tigers' poor start and suspect defense don't engender the same level of confidence. Houston has been under the radar since the (now somewhat less valuable) win over Oklahoma but is still on track for a Playoff bid.
Second Tier
Michigan
Washington
Texas A&M
Tennessee
The Wolverines just got a big victory over Wisconsin, but the reason they don't jump into the first tier is because I'm not convinced the Badgers are all that good (that 14-7 slog sure didn't LOOK like a pair of top-10 teams duking it out). Washington is in a similar wait-and-see place, as the win was great but the opponent - in this case Stanford - might have just been overrated. The SEC teams both have to play Alabama soon and play each other this week, so we'll get some answers on that front very shortly.
Third Tier
Louisville
Wisconsin
Stanford
It's harsh to put Louisville here, but the fact is the Cardinals lost to Clemson. It was close, but it was still a loss, and right now nobody above UL has to deal with that same lack of margin of error. Wisconsin and Stanford, as I said above, both might be overrated. However, they also both have the potential to go on runs and wind up as conference champions if things play out right, and I've learned to never count out the Badgers and Cardinal too soon.
Pac-12 Report
What else is there to say? The Pac-12's woes have continued, with Arizona State and Utah both dropping their second conference game to earn their initial losses of the year, while Stanford looked positively dreadful against Washington last Friday. And oh yeah, flagship programs USC and Oregon are still struggling to figure things out, with the Trojans and Ducks both sitting at 2-3 overall. This is not going well.
The early hope for the league was that either Washington or Stanford would roll to a conference title and snag a Playoff bid. With the Cardinal now down to their last life, it's pretty much all up to the Huskies, which is a lot to ask from a team looking for its first double-digit win season since 2000. Washington could win the conference, but the weakening of the Pac-12 might end up doing UW more harm than good, as the current lack of poll respect could doom the Huskies' Playoff chances. With just four teams in the AP top 25, the league will probably need Washington to run the table to stay in contention.
The Dawgs will get a chance to work on that this weekend by exorcising another demon in the form of Oregon and the Ducks' 12-game winning streak, the longest by either team in the longstanding rivalry. This appears to be Washington's year, with UO struggling mightily defensively and on the O-line and the Huskies on a tear to start the season. You couldn't ask for a more perfect setup for UW to end this ignominous streak. Of course, that also makes it a perfect trap game, as the Ducks have very little to lose at this point and will be playing at in front of a throwback raucous crowd desperate to keep the streak alive at Autzen Stadium. For the first time in at least 10 years Washington is unquestionably the better team, but you never know in college football.
A 4-1 start for Colorado didn't look out of the question, but rising to 2-0 in conference play and taking the early lead in the South sure did. The Buffaloes will get a chance to turn this year from promising to special Saturday when they take on USC at the Coliseum. The Trojans are in rough shape after an ugly September, but remain highly talented and quite dangerous, which is why they're favored. Sadly, the odds still favor SC, whose previous Pac-12 foes (Stanford, Utah and ASU) were a mite stronger than CU's duo of Oregon and Oregon State. A little dose of reality is probably in store, but don't sleep on Colorado's D, which ranks first in the conference above even Washington.
Two other important South games match up Arizona and Utah alongside UCLA at ASU. Utah should be able to handle the Wildcats, who sit at the bottom of the division, but after last week's loss to Cal nobody in Salt Lake City should be taking anything for granted. The Utes are still a quality quarterback away from being an elite (or semi-elite) team, but they looked quite good in their first four games (all wins) and could still be the South champs.
The same is true for both UCLA and ASU who, like Utah, are 1-1 in Pac-12 play. The Sun Devils' no-show at USC last week didn't do a lot to generate confidence, but the fact remains that ASU can really score (my goodness, can they score) and are not a team you want dragging you into a shootout. The Bruins' defense ranks highly despite facing a tough early slate and should be able to get the job done, even on the road, but I'm far past the point of trusting this team until I see results.
Cal is at Oregon State for a contest that looked to be quite competitive in the preseason and now appears to be a runaway for the Golden Bears. Oregon State has marginally improved in 2016 but is still a long way from being able to really compete in the Pac-12; Cal, on the other hand, has surpassed all expectations and is a shootout loss to ASU from being a game out in the North. The Bears' defense is atrocious, so the Beavers should score, but Cal is far too good offensively for this to really be a game.
Finally, there's Washington State at Stanford, a matchup that looked absolutely fantastic heading into the year but has now lost most of its luster. Wazzu has been another of the league's disappointments, while Stanford was exposed last week at Washington. Emotions are bound to be high after the Cardinal's fortunate escape on the Palouse last year, but even with the dip Stanford appears to have taken it's hard to see the Cougars pulling this one out. WSU just hasn't looked right so far this year.
Random Thoughts and Observations
It would be remiss of me to not address the firing of Les Miles after I wrote about it so often. As I said last season, before this season began and after LSU's opening loss to Wisconsin, it was simply time. Miles' inability to convert quality recruiting classes into quality offenses - along with his stunning inability to develop a QB - made him expendable. LSU didn't need to spend another four years losing to Alabama and struggling to finish eighth in the conference in offense. It knew what it had in Miles; a coach unable to adjust to the changing landscape of college football, unable to move beyond an archaic offensive system and unable to find uses for legitimate pro talents on his team. It was time. Both parties will be better for it.
2016 Stanzi Awards
It's been a while. We've got three whole weeks of Stanzis to catch up on, so let's not waste time! Week Three was one of the quietest in memory, with just two Stanzis awarded. Fortunately, Week Four made up for that with a Double Stanzi to go along with a pair of four-interception performances that moved their maestros into the season lead. Not to be outdone, Clemson's Deshaun Watson turned in a four-turnover masterpiece last week to become the first player this year with multiple Stanzis. He's now the clubhouse leader.
Week Three Awards
Ben Hicks, SMU
Opponent: Liberty
Performance: Two INT, won by 15
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette
Opponent: South Alabama
Performance: Two INT, won by five
Week Four Awards
Todd Porter, Eastern Michigan
Opponent: Wyoming
Performance: Four INT (two for TD), won by three
Steven Montez, Colorado
Opponent: Oregon
Performance: Two INT, won by three
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee
Opponent: Florida
Performance: Two INT, won by 10
Dallas Davis, South Alabama
Opponent: Nicholls
Performance: Four INT (one for TD), won by one in overtime
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Ross Trail, Cincinnati
Opponent: Miami (OH)
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by seven
Billy Bahl, Miami (OH)
Opponent: Cincinnati
Performance: One INT, one FUM, lost by seven
Week Five Awards
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Opponent: TCU
Performance: Two FUM, won by six
Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Opponent: Louisville
Performance: Three INT, one FUM, won by six
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M
Opponent: South Carolina
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11
Tra'von Chapman, Akron
Opponent: Kent State
Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by four
Alex McGough, Florida International
Opponent: Florida Atlantic
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by two
DOUBLE STANZI ALERT
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State
Opponent: Louisiana-Lafayette
Performance: Two INT, won by six in OT
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette
Opponent: New Mexico State
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), lost by six in OT
2016 Standings
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 2
Dallas Davis, South Alabama: 1
Todd Porter, Easter Michigan: 1
Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Troy Williams, Utah: 1
Tra'von Chapman, Akron: 1
Tyler Rogers, New Mexico State: 1
Alex McGough, Florida International: 1
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 1
Ross Trail, Cincinnati: 1
Steven Montez, Colorado: 1
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Ben Hicks, SMU: 1
Trevor Knight, Texas A&M: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Josh Dobbs, Tennessee: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
Anthony Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette: 1
Riley Neal, Ball State: 1
September has come and gone! The remainder of the season largely consists of conference play, so we ought to get some wonderful bad quarterbacking performance as the weeks go on. The Playoff chase has just begun.
No comments:
Post a Comment