Ohio State mashed

We’ve reached the nadir of Playoff scenarios, and it’s become abundantly clear why the committee was so adamant about the not including a “conference champion” stipulation to the entrants’ resumes. With Michigan State’s upset of Ohio State – on the road, with a backup quarterback – the most talented team in the Big 10 could be locked out of the league’s title match. Iowa, on the other hand, missed the three best teams in the conference thanks to the Big 10’s unnecessary bloating with Maryland and Rutgers. The Big 10 champion could be the fourth-best team in the conference.

Of course, that’s not nearly as bad a situation as what the Pac-12 is looking at, where the third- and fourth-best teams in the league will square off for the right to be named champion. The two best teams in the conference have been locked out, and the South division winner will be USC or UCLA, both with three conference losses. Welcome to the superconference era, boys. Hope all that TV money was worth it.

In the Big 12, there will be a single-loss champion, though that team could get left out of the Playoff entirely if one-loss Notre Dame knocks off Stanford this week. That 13^th game is looking better and better every year, isn’t it? The Big 12 desperately needs to expand back to 12 schools, but at this point there’s just no one left to grab. Maybe that Pac-16 idea wasn’t so crazy after all.

In the ACC, it’s Clemson or no one, and the SEC will probably have a solid one-loss Alabama team to lean on. That’s half of our playoff, and from there it gets really dicey. If the Pac-12 gets a team in, it’ll be Stanford, but Stanford isn’t the best team in the conference. Oklahoma would have a great chance at 11-1, but (due to schedule weakness) Oklahoma State and Baylor wouldn’t. Michigan State might or might not make it in with a win over a 12-0 Iowa team, while the Hawkeyes would certainly be in with an (unlikely) 13-0 record. It’s intrigue like this that makes Week 13 so delightful.

Yes, the majority of Rivalry Week is here, and it’s jam-packed with the kind of Thanksgiving goodness you’d expect. Thanks to Texas and Texas A&M’s acrimonious falling-out, Thanksgiving day itself no longer features the classic Lone Star Showdown, but Texas – Texas Tech isn’t a terrible consolation prize. We also get the great under-the-radar rivalry of South Florida and Central Florida, with the Bulls trying to win the American’s East division.

Friday morning, Toledo takes on Western Michigan with an eye on the MAC West title (Bowling Green has clinched the East). At the same time, Houston and Navy meet in a battle to determine not only the AAC’s West division, but possibly which “Group of Five” squad will be invited to a New Year’s Six bowl game. At midday we get the Apple Cup and Civil War in Pac-12 country, while Iowa travels to Nebraska looking to go undefeated in the regular season against a Cornhuskers team that needs the win for bowl eligibility. The much-ballyhooed but now less-than-titanic Baylor-TCU matchup is in the afternoon, while rivals Tulsa and Tulane meet in New Orleans.

On Saturday morning, Big Ten rivals Purdue and Indiana play in West Lafayette, with the Hoosiers one win from the postseason. Ohio State is in Ann Arbor for a still-important rivalry game with Michigan, while Michigan State must defeat Penn State to clinch a spot opposite Iowa in the Big Ten Championship.

In the afternoon, we kick off all the ACC-SEC rivalry games (Clemson – South Carolina, Georgia – Georgia Tech, Florida – Florida State and now, Louisville – Kentucky). Florida – FSU is the only meaningful game in the bunch, but oh well. Minnesota hosts Wisconsin in the nation’s most-played rivalry, followed by a series of high-profile contests: North Carolina – NCSU; Alabama – Auburn in the Iron Bowl; UCLA – USC; Kansas – Kansas State in the Sunflower Showdown, and Ole Miss – Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

In primetime, the Bedlam Game (Oklahoma – OSU) may decide the Big 12, while an even more important matchup looms: Notre Dame at Stanford, to decide if the Fighting Irish – or possibly even the Cardinal – can make the Playoff.

Playoff Poll

Ohio State was essentially eliminated with the loss to Michigan State. It’s hard to imagine the committee taking the Buckeyes now, even if they weasel in to the Big Ten title game and beat Iowa. The resume is too weak from a Big Ten schedule.

First Tier

Clemson

Alabama

Oklahoma

Notre Dame

I’m not sure what to expect from Notre Dame this weekend, but that’s why they play the games.

Second Tier

Michigan State

Iowa

I think the Spartans still have a better shot to make the playoff, given their win over Oregon.

Third Tier

Florida

Oklahoma State

Baylor

The margin of error for the Big 12 teams is razor-thin, thanks to those creampuff non-conference schedules.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Oregon continued its outrageous offensive tear in an obliteration of USC, but it didn’t matter in the long-term sense, as Stanford pulled out a sluggish win over Cal to claim the North. With Utah’s ugly loss to UCLA, the L.A. schools are set to play for the South title on the final weekend.

That’s a shame, because it gives us the third- and fourth- best teams in the league competing for the right to be called the best. Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12 when healthy, and Washington State is the clear second. That puts Stanford at third, with SC and UCLA fourth and fifth (the winner of this week’s game presumably coming in fourth). Ugh.

Unfortunately, that’s what happens in a superconference with divisions: you run the risk of stacking one side too strong. It happened each of the past few seasons with just Oregon and Stanford, now Wazzu is in the mix too. Don’t blame the L.A. schools; blame the conference.

Friday, we get the Civil War and Apple Cup, a pair of delightful ancient Northwest rivalries. The early Saturday matchups are Utah – Colorado and UCLA – USC. Cal – ASU is the weird non-rivalry game of the weekend, but the important one is Notre Dame at Stanford. Stanford seemed to peak during the middle of the season, but the Irish haven’t been exactly fearsome lately either.

Still, the squads come into the weekend with a combined 19-3 record, so there’s a lot at stake. Notre Dame would be pretty hard to keep out of the Playoff at 11-1 with victories over ranked Navy and Stanford teams (and a two-point loss at No. 1 Clemson). Stanford, at 11-2 (assuming a Pac-12 title as well) would be awfully enticing too. Should be a great game.

Heisman Watch

LSU lost again, so Leonard Fournette will not win the Heisman. That’s reasonable, even though he’s probably the most talented player in the country. So who should win? There are a few very strong candidates and a few overhyped ones.

DeShaun Watson, QB, Clemson

My first choice at this juncture, Watson has put together a nice 32-touchdown season for the No. 1 team in the country. It’s not Marcus Mariota’s 58 TD campaign, but it’s possible nothing ever will be.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Mayfield is a better passer than Watson and is surprisingly mobile. His team’s weaker record will probably doom him, though.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

The fact that Fournette has managed nearly 1,600 yards and 17 TD’s in LSU’s offense should be legendary. Sadly, it appears it’s going to go down as a historical footnote.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Les Miles’ seemingly imminent departure from LSU is hard to understand, but in the long run the school may be making the right choice. Miles’ tenure has been fantastic by most measures, but his coaching has never equaled his recruiting acumen and his single title came with a slew of good fortune (in short: backdooring into the BCS title game after the No. 1 AND No. 2 teams lost on the final week of the season; having the brand-new Gary Crowton offense in a year when teams hadn’t yet adapted to the spread; facing a mediocre Ohio State team in the BCS Championship, and doing it all with Nick Saban’s players).

LSU has consistently been elite, but not quite good enough, even in its incredible 2011 season in which the Tigers posted the best pre-bowl resume of any team in history (EIGHT wins over ranked teams?!?!) but lost 21-0 to Alabama in the BCS Championship rematch. What’s more, despite an incredible glut of next-level talent, including players who have gone on to star in the NFL, Miles has always forced his teams into a decades-out-of-date, mind-numbingly conservative offense that relies more on pure talent than scheme.

It’s not crazy that LSU would want to find someone who can build on what Miles has done rather than be stuck always finishing second fiddle to Alabama. However, that doesn’t mean it’s not a classic case of a school thinking the grass might be greener. Not many coaches have Miles’ record over the past decade; fewer still have the caliber to do it in the SEC. LSU might very well climb to new heights with a new head man… or it could tumble into obscurity like so many powerhouse programs before it.

2015 Stanzi Awards

There were some epically great Stanzis this week, including Karson Roberts four-turnover masterpiece in Air Force’s win over Boise State. Roberts’ award goes down as the single best of the season, but he has a lot of ground to make up to be a finalist. More importantly, we now have a tie atop the standings, as Florida’s Treon Harris snagged his third weekly Stanzi.

Week 12 Awards

Karson Roberts, Air Force

Opponent: Boise State

Performance: Three INT, one FUM, won by seven

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame

Opponent: Boston College

Performance: Three INT, won by three

Treon Harris, Florida

Opponent: Florida Atlantic

Performance: One INT, one FUM (for TD), won by six (overtime)

Jake Rudock, Michigan

Opponent: Penn State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 12

Marquise Williams, North Carolina

Opponent: Virginia Tech

Performance: Two FUM, won by three

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State

Opponent: Arkansas

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by one

  

2015 Finalists

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Treon Harris, Florida: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2

Thomas Woodson, Akron: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

Jake Rudock, Michigan: 2

In an unusual twist, the top five players on the leaderboard all play in high-profile difficult games this weekend, making another award unlikely for all of them. However, a Stanzi this week to end the season could push someone over the top. What will happen? Will it be season-long leader Mason Rudolph, late bloomer Treon Harris, or another player entirely? Be sure and tune in for some sweet Thanksgiving Stanzi action!