Friday, December 4, 2015

Championship Week is upon us

Championship Week is always bittersweet. It’s a relatively new invention, as the college football season used to end on Thanksgiving weekend, but in the 20-ish years (wow) of the superconference era, we’ve already gotten a lifetime’s worth of memories. This year promises to be no different.

It’s no surprise the MAC will start us off this week, because the MAC always has to be first. That’s not a criticism in any way; the Big Ten’s little brother has consistently had the most exciting and competitive conference title game of any league. Who can forget Akron’s 2005 Hail Mary to beat Northern Illinois, or NIU storming back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to beat Ohio 23-20 in 2011? What about 2001, when Toledo upset Marshall to ruin the Thundering Herd’s undefeated season; 2008, when Buffalo did the same to Ball State; and 2013, when Bowling Green shocked unbeaten NIU 47-27? Classics all.

This season sees Bowling Green and NIU match up in Detroit for the third straight time, after Toledo blew it last week by losing to Western Michigan. BGSU is favored, having more or less romped through the league, but it should still be a decent contest. It usually is in this game.

We open up Saturday with the American Championship Game, featuring ranked Temple and Houston teams squaring off in Houston. The AAC had a handful of really solid squads this year. Memphis and Navy are also top-25 caliber schools, so we know the Owls and Cougars have been tested. Houston is rightly favored; the Cougars only loss came during a turnover-filled disaster while missing starting quarterback Greg Ward, Jr.

The Conference USA Championship is also at 9:00 a.m. (PDT) Saturday, with resurgent Southern Miss taking on Western Kentucky in Bowling Green. I’d be surprised if the Hilltoppers don’t win; WKU has run – or more accurately, passed – roughshod over the rest of the CUSA and has one of the best offenses in the country.

Alabama and Florida meet in Atlanta at 1:00, but this game is merely a formality at this point. The Gators are less than toothless with Stanzi candidate Treon Harris at QB. UF’s offense is a disaster and the only reason the team is here is because the SEC East collapsed on itself this season. Expect a very brief fight before the Crimson Tide roll.

Of much greater interest is the Mountain West title game, with a pair of rather unusual participants: Air Force and San Diego State. To be fair, the Aztecs were favored to win the West from the start, but they’re not exactly a big-name program. Nobody saw the Falcons coming. With the game in San Diego, it’s hard not to favor SDSU, which went 8-0 in conference play this year behind a tremendous ground game and defense.

In prime time, we get the final three title bouts. First, the Pac-12 Championship at 4:45 between USC and Stanford (in Santa Clara!). There’s unfortunately not much to be thrilled about here; the Cardinal already beat the Trojans in L.A. but, barring a miracle, won’t be included in the College Football Playoff. There’s just no upside, and beating a team twice is already difficult. USC, on the other hand, improved post-Sarkisian, but would be a terribly unworthy conference champion at 7-3 in league play (following a win).

The biggest game of the weekend starts moments later, as No. 5 Michigan State and No. 4 Iowa face off for a de facto Playoff play-in. I didn’t take the Hawkeyes seriously this season for a reason: they’re not that good. But neither are the Spartans, and MSU’s upset of Ohio State a few weeks ago throws this whole affair into a wrench. Iowa would have had no shot against a dialed-in Buckeyes squad, but against this flawed Spartans group? Sure. Either way, I expect the winner to be flattened come New Year’s Eve.

Finally, there’s North Carolina – Clemson for the ACC Championship. UNC has a truly terrible loss on its resume (to South Carolina in the opener), but Clemson struggled with the Gamecocks just last week. It doesn’t bode well that neither of these teams could easily put away a 3-9 squad. The Tigers should win, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tar Heels pull the upset; it’s essentially a home game for UNC, and quite frankly, the ACC is so terrible we really don’t know how good either side is.

Playoff Poll

Well, there are a couple of automatic entries to the CFP this week. The Big Ten champ is in. Oklahoma is already in. Alabama (considering the level of competition) is in. From there, it gets slightly hairy, but only if Clemson loses.

College Football Playoff

1) Clemson vs. 4) Michigan State
2) Alabama vs. 3) Oklahoma

We’re in for a real treat, as the hottest team in the country (OU) takes on the most talented one (‘Bama). I went ahead and picked Sparty to win the Big Ten, but that could easily be Iowa.

Pac-12 Thoughts

It’s unfortunate that the conference is locked into the divisional format, because the two best teams in the league have had a very tough time actually playing each other in the championship game. Sure, that was because Stanford and Oregon were far and away the two best teams in the conference from 2011-14, but it simply hurts the league when Stanford (not the best team in the North) is forced to play a team it already beat – on the road, no less – with three Pac-12 losses. But this is what the people wanted.

Heisman Watch

It seems the machine wants the Heisman to go to Trent Richardson 2.0, AKA Derrick Henry. I have nothing against the Alabama running back, but I thought we had learned our lesson in 2009. Oh well. This is who deserves the Heisman in a very un-Heisman-like year.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Outrageous efficiency through the air (35 touchdowns, five picks), a nice rushing complement (420 yards, seven scores) and impressive big-game chops (3-0 versus Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State) should win Mayfield the Heisman.

DeShaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson has 34 total TD’s and is the heart and soul of the Tigers. More importantly, he’s the QB of the nation’s No.1 team. With a big game against UNC, he could make a late push.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

I see Derrick Henry finally passed Fournette on the nation rushing yards list, thanks to an absurd 46 carries against Auburn. Not fooling anyone (well, apparently it is). With the players around him, Fournette’s performance is much more impressive.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In case it isn’t extremely obvious, here’s the final case for why Henry shouldn’t win the Heisman. An unobservant person could disregard the fact that Alabama is better at every offensive position than LSU, which gives Fournette zero help and allows defenses to hone in on him. An unobservant person could also look at only the most basic statistics – total yards and touchdowns – and infer that somehow Henry is a better player.

But even the most unobservant person shouldn’t be able to ignore what Alabama has tried to do since the meeting between the teams on November 7. In the final three four games, Henry received 141 carries to Fournette’s 79, and that INCLUDES Henry’s nine-carry outing against FCS cupcake Charleston Southern, who ‘Bama played two weeks ago. Fournette didn’t get to pad his stats against an FCS foe because the Tiger’s opener versus McNeese State was cancelled due to weather.

With the extra 100-plus yards (and TD’s) from that game, Fournette’s stats would be better across the boards, despite ‘Bama’s blatant attempt to run Henry into the ground the last month in order to win the Heisman. This should not be rewarded. Remember the stink of Mark Ingram’s Heisman, voters. Remember.

2015 Stanzi Awards

We’ve come so far. An incredible five of our seven Stanzis this week belonged to previous winners, vastly expanding the finalist list. However, only two of the potential winners (Florida’s Treon Harris and North Carolina’s Marquise Williams) play this week, so the winner will likely come down to Harris and Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph. But you never know.

Week 13 Awards

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
Opponent: Texas
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Trevone Boykin, TCU
Opponent: Baylor
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won in overtime

Blake Frohnapfel, Massachusetts
Opponent: Buffalo
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by five

Marquise Williams, North Carolina
Opponent: North Carolina State
Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic
Opponent: Old Dominion
Performance: Two INT, won by two

Kyle Bolin, Louisville
Opponent: Kentucky
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by 14

Kavika Johnson, UTEP
Opponent: North Texas
Performance: Two FUM (one for TD), won by three

2015 Finalists

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3
Treon Harris, Florida: 3
Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2
Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2
DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: 2
Trevone Boykin, TCU: 2
Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2
Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2
Thomas Woodson, Akron: 2
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 2
P.J. Walker, Temple: 2
Kyle Bolin, Louisville: 2
Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2
Philip Ely, Toledo: 2
Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 2
Jake Rudock, Michigan: 2
Marquise Williams, North Carolina: 2

It’s been a lovely season, unpredictable and strange in the best kind of college football way. Finally, this weekend, we will have the Playoff participants.

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